Wednesday, 10 June 2009

10/6 resend

UPDATE- JUST HAD A THOUGHT RE ENGLAND HALF TIME BET. YOU CAN BACK 0-0 AT 120 AS A COVER TO THE HALF TIME BET ( THIS IS PRESUMING ANDORRA WON'T SCORE )THE ONLY WAY ENGLAND WON'T WIN AT HALF TIME IS IF THEY DON'T SCORE- I CANNOT SEE THEM LOSING AT HALF TIME OR DRAWING 1-1 AT HALF TIME


Thank God for one a day. I went for Spain and they were 3-0 up at half time thanks to David Villa. So that was job done, with the Faroes amazingly beating Russia's under 21's and the fav in the 700 Southwell not placing.
It's down to one decision and could so easily have been a losing day. The 500pm start for the Spain game coincidentally saved the day.

I suspect today will be another football bet with full international sides out against minnows - no under 21's today!!

200 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Maidtorun, 7/1 Midget, Reel Credit Crunch, 8/1 On The Piste, 10/1 Mal And Dave, Out The Ring, 14/1 Gasparilla, 20/1 Sir Christie, 33/1 Dencolstina, Menediva, 40/1 Suzys Dream, 50/1 Three Sons,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAIDTORUN failed to give her running upped to 6f in higher grade last time but a return to the form she showed to win her maiden over C&D will make her hard to beat from a favourable draw. Gasparilla would have place prospects if putting a poor run last time behind her, while Midget is a newcomer worth noting in the market.[Frank Carter]

A very clear price gapper here but the race type is a 2 year old class 6 claimer which is most offputting. A " hard to beat" selection here but we MUST account for the race type 1.26 to place

210 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Saloon, 3/1 Gloucester, Stringsofmyheart, 7/2 All In The Red, 12/1 Masterofceremonies,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of in-form runners to choose from. GLOUCESTER goes well on fast going and is awarded the vote but it's only a narrow one over Saloon and Stringsofmyheart

Stringsofmyheart is a non runner and must make life easier for the principles. Masterofceremonies remains at 12/1 so should play no part. 4 runners and 2 places here, but we saw with the 700 Southwell - with top heavy markets, the 2 closely priced favs rarely finish 1-2 as you would like them to.

I must admit I do like Fred Tylicki as a jockey on Gloucester

220 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Mountain Cat, 6/1 Annes Rocket, 13/2 Hart Of Gold, 7/1 Applesnap, 8/1 Lord Deevert, 10/1 Duke Of Milan, 14/1 Light The Light, 16/1 Lady Florence, 20/1 Neboisha, 25/1 Harrison´s Flyer, 50/1 Listen Carefully.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop in trip and wide draw will put some off but a rejuvenated MOUNTAIN CAT looks well enough handicapped to win anyway and can make his long trip worthwhile. Hart Of Gold may pose most problems.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Another price gapper here in a handicap. Good recent form and another Spotlight says is " hard to beat" BUT I am very wary that there are a lot of new names writing Spotlight and their analysis obviously has changed from those who have gone before.

HE falls into the class 6 0-65 handicp price gapper BUT 2 of these have not performed recently and one of them had a wide draw like Mountain Cat has today.

330 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Joe Jo Star, 8/1 Cheers For Thea, 10/1 King´s Ransom, 14/1 Shaylee, Umverti, 16/1 Hippolytus, Just Observing, King Of Connacht, 25/1 Bollin Freddie.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from JOE JO STAR here, with his career having taken off since joining Richard Fahey. He made short work of this mark at Ayr last time and although this looks a bit tougher, he may have more to come on the Flat.[Paul Smith]

Price gapper emphasised now by the non runners - 9 runner field down to 6 must allow the fav an outstanding place only chance? The price, I suspect, will reflect this!

350 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Brett Vale, 7/1 Beaubrav, 8/1 Primo Dilettante, 14/1 Orsippus, 16/1 Charlie Smirke, Transformer, 20/1 Peak, Red Reef, 25/1 Squad, 50/1 Kneesy Earsy Nosey.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BRETT VALE (nap) looks thrown in under his penalty having whistled home at Lingfield on Saturday and that could be the start of a winning spree. Primo Dilettante looks the best each-way alternative for those willing to oppose the hot favourite.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

0-65 class 6 handicap price gapper here, now 1/2 . Again as you see, a new name in Spotlight - can we trust this guy and his analysis. I've not heard of him.

430 BEV
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Espiritu, 7/2 Crime Writer, 7/1 Ettrick Mill, 8/1 Freya´s Flight, 16/1 Chief Red Cloud, Helieorbea, 100/1 Billy Bowmore, Bluebird Chariot, Cottam Breeze.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Espiritu sets a good standard for his rivals to aim at and may well outclass his opponents, but he isn't straightforward and his finishing effort lacked gusto at Yarmouth last time. CRIME WRITER has a bit to find on the book but he looks sure to improve for this longer trip and could be worth chancing here.[Paul Smith]

9 runners down to 7 and a top heavy market with the front 2 clear and fancied to have this race between them. This is a maiden though, but the fav has had plenty of runs -positive - he's experienced - negative - he's exposed?
2 horses are 100/1 which reduce the competitive field further.

840 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Fremen, 9/4 Moody Tunes, 7/1 Castlebury, 8/1 Heureux, 20/1 Actabou, 25/1 Beaumont Boy, 40/1 Borodinsky, 100/1 Orpen Bid,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With lone front-runner El Dececy a late defection, FREMEN gets the nod over Moody Tunes, though it is likely to be closer than official ratings suggest.[Graeme North]

9 down to 7 and hopefully 3 places but again we have 2 strong market leaders made stronger with the 3rd fav's absence. Will these 2 fight out the finish?- that's the question

FOOTBALL
16:00 Iran vs UAE 2/9
I'm no expert on the Iranian national side so will discount this one
18:00 Sweden vs Malta 1/25
Again, in an ideal world, 1/25 signifies goals. Can we really trust this Swedish side - seems aging to me, BUT does have Ibrahimovich from Inter up front who is a class above this opposition.
1.09 over 1.5 goals 1.23 to be winning at half time ( this is very enticing!) Sweden have to score 1 to no reply before half time
18:00 Ukraine vs Kazakhstan 1/10
Reliance on Shevchenko up front - not for me at 1/10.
19:15 Faroe Islands vs Serbia 25/1 17/2 1/12
Was the Faroe under 21's win down to new manager Brian Kerr ( ex Republic of Ireland) or a crap Russian under 21 side. If the former, then perhaps the usual drubbings at home might become a thing of the past. Because of the shock result yesterday a no bet for me today when Faores are at home. Serbia should breeze past but if Brian Kerr gets them organised, might be very defensive and frustrate?
19:30 Estonia vs Portugal 6/1 11/4 2/5
I couldn't trust the Pork and Cheese at all -a no bet for me with very poor recent form
19:45 Holland vs Norway 1/3
Great attacking side the Dutch and at home too. So many class acts up front must help their cause tonight?
19:50 Italy vs New Zealand 1/8
A friendly here in the run up to the Confederations Cup. As with the Spanish yeterday, we want to see a no nonsense strong Italian side who should tear New Zealand a new one tonight! Unless New Zealand put Jonah Lomu up front.
20:15 England vs Andorra 1/200
1/200 - signifies goals. Simple as that. 4-0 against the Borats was great and augurs very well for this game. I can't believe England half time/ full time is 1.14. Unbelievable !The same bet is HALF TIME at 1.14 and this is tradeable.
Do we have a trade already? England -3.5 is 1.47 but unquoted is 1.38 to lay ( this assumes Andorra don't score of course)
Over 3.5 goals is 1.3 and is tradeable after 2 have been scored.
Rooney is 1.58 to score! Never seen odds on before!

SHORTLIST
210 HAYDOCK
4 horses and 2 places. Can we make a case for just one of these in yet another 50/50 race? Gloucester has Fred tylicki on board and I like him as a jockey

330 BEVERLEY
It was always going to be rubbish odds. 1.07 for Joe Joe Star to place in the first 3 in a 6 horse race. Will 3 horses seriously beat this one?

350 BRIGHTON
Brett Vale is 1.11 to place and is a price gapper in a low grade handicap. 8 runners mean 3 places which is a positive.

FOOTBALL
Sweden v Malta 1.09 for over 1.5 goals and 1.23 for HALF TIME Sweden - Sweden need to score to no prely in the first minutes - this is eyecatching.

Netherlands are also enticing at 1.45 given their attacking line up, kuyt, Van Persies, Vennegor of Hesselink and Huntelaar are class acts and full of goals ( he says as it's 0-0 after 89 minutes!!) Home advantage.

I can't believe England are 1.14 to win at half time. This is HUGE given they are 1/200 in the match odds market.

ONE A DAY
It MUST be England half time at 1.14 on Betfair - surely they can breach the Andorran's within 45 minutes? As ever it is no given (see faroes win yesterday) BUT it will be a major shock surely if England cannot score to no reply before half time

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