30/10

Ashkazar was the rock solid bet of the day and came home with minimum fuss.
Todber was 4th by 2 lengths but my 1.10 trade on that was hit so no profit and no loss there.
I wish I'd followed my instincts and went with SPain under 17's - the price 1.41 was very enticing and they duly went 2 goals up quickly
Jose kept his home record with an exciting 5-3 win for Inter
A 4 timer from Dettori yesterday - another wish! Wish I'd backed Godolphin yesterday!
1240 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Mawzoon, 5/1 Asraab, 6/1 Imperial Delight, 8/1 Beaumont´s Party, Ghazwah, May Chorus, 10/1 Hajjaan, 12/1 Illustrious Prince, 16/1 Tell Halaf, 20/1 Billie Jean, Decency, 25/1 Compton Way, State Gathering, 40/1 Hallucinating, 50/1 Gojeri, 66/1 Brody´s Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: Illustrious Prince may prove the pick of those who have raced but it will be no surprise if the winner comes from among the newcomers, with ASRAAB and Mawzoon particularly interesting.

Hold that last thought - it's Frankie on Asraab backed into favouratism despite being a debutant ( didn't stop them yesterday) 1.5 to place

115 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Quick Wit, 11/4 Youm Jamil, 11/2 Man Of Action, 12/1 Kajima, Uphold, 14/1 Awsaal, 16/1 King´s Warrior, 20/1 Kakatosi, Scarboro Warning, 25/1 Battle Honour, Pittodrie Star, 33/1 Trovare, 40/1 Brigadoon, 50/1 Beauchamp Yeoman, Huff And Puff, Micky P, Vumbura, 66/1 Blitzed,

DIOMED VERDICT: The betting can help point the way with the newcomers, but QUICK WIT and Youm Jamil, with experience behind them, may well dominate.

Quick wit again for Godolphin, has had 2 runs. 1.28 to place

150 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Puff, 6/1 Conniption, Queen´s Grace, 12/1 Amitola, Seeking Dubai, 14/1 Skylla, 16/1 Manx Miss, Tomintoul Singer, 20/1 Coin From Heaven, Roodle, 25/1 Jeanie Johnston, 66/1 Chaussini.

DIOMED VERDICT: PUFF (nap) stands out on her Cheveley Park fourth. Conniption is a decent each-way alternative.

Listed race and likely " to be hard to beat" is Puff 1.28 to place and remember listed races contain half decent competition

205 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bannville, 5/2 Chicago Outfit, 9/2 Ifandbutwhy, Railway Park, 33/1 Hugs Dealer, 40/1 Grey Dasler.

DIOMED VERDICT: BANNVILLE won't have to be Festival material to defy a penalty.

Simple 50/50 race - 2 will place, 2 won't 1.32 for McCoy's Bannville

630 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Dynasty, 6/1 Wit And Wisdom, 13/2 Masela, 8/1 Gearanai, 12/1 Bashir Biyoum Zain, One Set, 14/1 Croi Eile, Goddess Of Light, 16/1 The Glamour Cat, 50/1 Ebony Cat, Little Miss Muppet, Maid Of The Castle, Proceedwithcaution, Watson´s Fancy,

O'Brien/Murtagh on Dynasty price gapper 1.11 place but market illiquid

FOOTBALL
3pmGermany U17 v Honduras U17
1.25 and surely Ze germans should have too much? And it's in play
815 pm Porto v Belenenses
1.22 for Porto won all home matches, and have beaten teams around Belenenses in the table 3-0 and 3-1. Concern with Belenenses is their last 2 aways have been 1-1 and 0-0, the latter against Sporting, a team similar to Porto. A bit of bus parking then? - or 3 goals at least from the home side?
SHORTLIST
Porto - you make your choice here - look at Sporting 0 Belenenses 0 as a guide or Porto's 3-1 and 3-0 wins AWAY to teams on either side of Belenenses in the league -with their home form I would go with the latter and trade if they score first
German under 17's very enticing at 1.25 - motivation - they MUST WIN ,simple as that. Honduras ,though, have only lost 1-0 to both Nigeria and Argentina so can be pains to break down . But the motivation is there for the Germans -lose or draw and they are out of the World Cup. Win and they still hang on the thread of other results allowing them to go through
115 NMKT - of the Godolphin pair, Quick Wit has the experience and could be preferred
150 NMKT- Puff " clear form pick and likely to be hard to beat" - so says Diomed and I see those " hard to beat" words as a trigger 1.28 to place, only 3 under 12/1 and currently 11/10
ONE A DAY
I want to do a nailed on one a day and a bigger priced one a day as I keep throwing away good bets like Spain under 17 yesterday at 1.41 for Ashkazar at a piffling 1.08 ( BUT much more solid probability wise)
So my nailed on one a day? Not the Germans as Honduras only lost by a solitary goal. Porto look far more solid at 1.22 to trade out.Perhaps over 1.5 goals here at the same price which will involve both sides with a cover of 0-0 given that belenenses held Sporting at home 0-0

PUFF at 1.28 would be my bigger priced one a day ( just experiment mode at the moment)

of the horses, I would side with Dynasty in the 630 Dundalk to keep the strong record for Ballydoyle when their horses are fancied

So, bigger priced would be Puff
ONE A DAY would be Porto tonight to either back in the match odds and trade out after they hopefully score first or over 1.5 goals which involves both sides

!!

Cup football betting = motivation and Man City had that - they are taking this seriously. Job done
OPPORTUNITY = breaking news last night was that Bolton had some players out with swine flu, like Blackburn Rovers and with that news Chelsea suddenly became very attractive indeed and promptly spanked them. Flexibility should be a key to betting.
This flexibility was at hand in the 340 Musselburgh - the straight 8 reduced to 7 and still 3 places and Lost soldier 3 strong in the market. I place backed him given this NEW INFORMATION and he came 2nd - this flexibiity of course is not available when writing a blog (or trying to thanks to brilliant Irish broadband)
Something to bear in mind for those with the ability to follow the live betting
Enhanced bets? Just Celtic - backed them at 5.1 when a goal down but they didn't equalise. The great thing though was at 5.1 you don't have to risk too much to get a decent return should they equalise. I also layed Hearts when at 1.2 just incase there was a late equaliser. Still a value bet for a side 2/5 at the off to be backing them at 4/1.

130 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Pamak D´Airy, 5/4 Border Reiver, 14/1 Desert Maze, 25/1 Ellandshe.

DIOMED VERDICT: Winning hurdler PAMAK D'AIRY has accrued plenty of worthwhile chase form and rates the one to beat.

We'll get a lot of these race types during the jumps - seeming 2 horse races and interesting froma place only perspective given the likelihood of the front 2 dominating all things being equal of course. A beginners chase this one- 1.14 and 1.21 the front 2 to place in an illiquid market at time of writing

150 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Ashkazar, 6/5 Sunnyhillboy, 9/1 Oscar Royal, 20/1 Like A Duke.

DIOMED VERDICT: SUNNYHILLBOY is proven over the trip and can beat Ashkazar.

2nd fav out and of course Ashkazar is now 1/5 given main rival no longer playing.1.08 not to get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race must be considered despite the poor odds.

Been running in class 1's and a beginners chase -hurdles form in better company should ensure a smooth transition - not run since Cheltenham but Timmy Murphy retains the ride and knows the horse having ridden in his last outings

You'll see a couple of potential bets in maiden hurdles today that I have omitted. I see maiden hurdles really as laying propositions on shorties. It's a maiden and they have to go over obstacles!!

230 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Command Marshal, 2/1 Gobejolly, 8/1 Tantobie, 14/1 Graze On And On, West End Wonder, 20/1 Abbey Minster, Loom, Quick Man, Safin, 25/1 Witness Run, 33/1 Lewis´s World,

DIOMED VERDICT: GOBEJOLLY has shown ability over hurdles but looks the type to improve a good deal for her new and in-form connections. She's taken to beat Command Marshal.

There was a nice 14/1 winner for the 16/1 system yesterday and herre we have a contender in Abbey Minster, now 6/1 in places

310 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sirocco Breeze, 5/1 Beat The Bell, Spirit Of Sharjah, 7/1 Cumana Bay, Glow Star, 10/1 Red Somerset, 14/1 Beckermet, Desert Dreamer, 16/1 Salient.

DIOMED VERDICT: GLOW STAR, a triple winner in South Africa this year, has slipped to a fair mark and is worth siding with on this AW debut.

So consistent are Godolphin at present, that Sirocco must be accounted for here 1.48 to place

320 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Get Me Out Of Here, 4/1 Ballybach, 9/1 Civil Servant, 12/1 Rathrockscourt, The Darling Boy, 14/1 Southerness, 20/1 Brainwave, 25/1 Calaficial.

DIOMED VERDICT: GET ME OUT OF HERE has every chance of maintaining his unbeaten record.

Fav is out and the race is now 5 runners and still 3 places which is great news -good probability race this one - any horse to place has to only beat 2 to place - default selection is Ballybach who was the nearest to Get me in the betting forecast - 1.18 is a good price for a probability race such as this but with the perceived outsiders at only 9/1 this shows that none can be confidently discounted

400 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Chapel Flowers, 7/1 Persian Prince, 8/1 Panthers Run, Toulouse Express, 16/1 Chigorin, Monty´s Boy, 20/1 Copper´s Gold, Master Papa.

DIOMED VERDICT: CHAPEL FLOWERS made an impressive debut for Tim Vaughan last week and can defy a penalty

Now 1/2 - - - 7/1 - th best price gap of the day so far -the straight 8 so 3 places - 32 length winner last time out and a penalty t carry this time but the market likes Chapel's chances. 1.14 to place - 4 horses are 16/1 or bigger and hpefully play little part

410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Padmini, 5/1 Mirabella, Roxy Flyer, 7/1 Dubai Media, Evening Tale, 10/1 Faited To Pretend, Queen´s Envoy, 20/1 Mirror Lake, Sweet Clementine, 33/1 Allannah Abu, Celebrian, On Khee, Strait Street, 66/1 French Fantasy.

DIOMED VERDICT: The one that takes the eye is Godolphin's newcomer PADMINI, who is out of an Irish Oaks winner. Her stable has a tremendous record at this course and she can continue the good run of the yard.

Another Godolphin newcomer here with Frankie up - they don't always get it right though -one newcomer yesterday ran as green as grass and was well beaten - they are short by reputation - the likelihood is that the horse is going to run well but there's always that niggle with youngsters debuting 1.37 to place

420 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Star Of Angels, 7/1 Squinch, 12/1 Casual Garcia, 20/1 Son Of Flame, 25/1 Sazeilla, 40/1 Star Of Memory, 100/1 Iveragh Lad, Mrs Onc.

DIOMED VERDICT: STAR OF ANGELS should find this well within his compass.

Huge price gap here but remember what I said earlier about maiden hurdles!! Still his achievements when last seen is far better than his opponents - been running almost exclusively in class 1 and class 2 company
1.22 the win and 1.06 the place

530 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Todber, 10/1 Leading Edge, Yanza, 12/1 Charles Darwin, Mayoman, Milldown Story, Shakespeare´s Son, 14/1 Timber Treasure, 16/1 Golden Dixie, Loyal Royal, Perlachy, Romantic Queen, 20/1 Weekend Away.

DIOMED VERDICT: TODBER escapes a penalty for her recent win and will be hard to beat in this company.

A day for huge price gappers and here's Todber, who falls into my price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap system, and these have been suprememly consistent from a win and place perspective.1.35 to place

600 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Daniella De Bruijn, 6/1 Dontbugthebunny, 7/1 Alfalevva, Saint Thomas, Underworld Dandy, 10/1 Mary Helen, Noverre Over There, 14/1 Mary Celest, 20/1 Desert Aisling, Press To Reset, 50/1 As Brave As You, 66/1 Red Farasi, Typical Female.

DIOMED VERDICT: NOVERRE OVER THERE has a bit to find at the weights but looks sure to improve now asked to tackle this trip.

It doesn't rain but it pours! Another price gapper but I am put off by the class 2 year old claimer part!! 1.28 to place

FOOTBALL
Cup games rules need to be known before involvement as was seen with AZ Alkmaar yesterday - these cup games go into extra time and it was 2-2 full time which means AZ didn't have to sweat it to get a winner in full time.
Also Spanish Cup games are 2 legged affairs so no immediate urgency in 1st game for the giants. Pleasing to see BArca, though, win their match with a completely revamped side and Pedro looking first class striker
Do keep an eye out on the forums for late team news -as mentioned it was on the Betfair Forum where I found out about Bolton swine flu befoore Chelsea's game and reacted accordingly
Gaz Metan Craiova v CFR Cluj
1.31 away from home - I know Cluj from their Champions LEague early stage exploits - a handy team but we are battling with motivation factor and team news with all of these cup games and it's dooubly difficult with Eurpoean teams as compared with England
Thrasivoulos F. v AEK
1.37 away side- one of the bigger Greek side and Pana won yesterday - should give a good account - I would be happier laying Thras
U.A.E. U17 v Spain U17
1.41 away from home - now am I missing something - this is Spanish youth versus the ,erm, world footballing giants of the United Arab Emirates, 1.41 looks very tasty indeed. I believe this game is played in Africa so perhaps the UAE will be better used to conditions, but surely the Spanish boys set up must be far more professional and the players they can chosse surely have a better pedigree and training for the job.
Hobro v AaB
1.23 away side - Danish Cup
Dordrecht v Ajax
1.28 away side - this will probably go to extra time if a draw at full time so bear in mind the strong favs don't really have to bust a gut as they have the safety net of extra time
A team well known enough that we can check team news
Inter v Palermo
1.49 Inter - interesting stat from the Racing Post - Jose has not lost at home for 122 games - what a stat!! But Racing Post warn that Palermo are on a good run at present - this is a seria a fixture and not a cup game so will be full strength sides - Palermo 5 game unbeaten run and beat Juve at Palermo 2-0 which should sound a warning bell for the sides at the top of the league. It is the fact they can beat Juve which means they have the capability to be pains in the arses to Inter Milan tonight.
But dare we oppose Inter? I would lay opponents at home until this unbeaten home run ends
It is such an impressive stat


SHORTLIST
150 STRATFORD - Ashkazar has only one horse to beat to place but is priced - 1.08 -accordingly
320 STRATFORD - another great probability race with 5 runners and 3 places - I opted for Ballybach as the default choice as he was originally 2nd fav
400 NEWCASTLE - Chapel flowers expected to run very well under a penalty - 8 runners and 3 places
420 STRATFORD - Star of angels looks primed to win and the odds tell you s much
530 WOLVES -Todber is a classic price gapper in a 0-65 class 6 handicap and these are usually so consistent. There was a bit of 1.35 available to place which I thought was too high and I have taken it-I hope I have guaged the market right this time and the price reduces nearer the off. - jockey a slight concern but a look at his recent rides and he has placed at least in the last 4 races which is encouraging , so with a horse expected to win, he has a great chance today
UAE under 17 v Spain under 17 - 1.41 - just seems a huge price for me - concern that the youngsters of Spain played a lot with 10 men against the USA - how much will that have taken out of them in the African heat?
Dortrecht v Ajax - 1.28 - the away side are reknowned goalscorers but the key is the team this evening - 1.15 over 1.5 goals and tradeable
Inter v Palermo - 1.27 over 1.5 goals would be the call here given the potential threat of Palermo on recent form. If they score then it's a goal backers dream given that Inter, with that home record to maintain, shoould equalise.

ONE A DAY
Horse racing - mostly jumps today and as ever we have the potential of fallers to factor in. At time of writing I have already backed Todber to place at 1.35 and it is now 1.28 which is promising. I backed for £100 so if the price reduces to allow a 1.10 bet then I'll take it - I have 5 hourse or so!
150 STRATFORD - Ashkazar at 1.08 to place looks superb - needs a clear round and not to be beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race - crap odds but the strongest probability bet of the day. Better odds with Todber at near 1.28 putting faith in the class 6 0-65 handicap price gapper which has failed only once to place in months now.
Remember to factor in flexibility if you can follow the live markets and make your one a day choice that way.

28/10 RESEND 2

Broadband problems mean I might not be able to finish this today

Enhanced bets ahoy! Panseraikos v Olympiakos - Oly original 1.46 favourites for this cup game went 2-0 down. This time I layed Panseraikos as their price was 1.30 for £25 to win me £80 on Oly and the draw.
Oly equalised. Panseraikos's price increases to 1.88 and I green out for a £25 profit.
Happy days and there was another 20 minutes of the match left!
I didn;t get involved in the enhanced bet at 1-0 as it was a Greek Cup game but 2-0 meant a price with low outlay and potential good returns.
Another enhanced bet? How about IFK Goteborg who went 2-0 down. I duly backed them at 2-0 down and 2-1 down and got out at 2-2 ( it ended 2-2 so any traders out there - get out early!)
I backed Real MAdrid at 1000 when 4-0 down but they didn't recover. If there is a 2nd leg here, stick that in your note book I think! Goals should arrive.
The over 1.5 goals bet would have saved this game as well ( it is pretty much the same odds as backing Real Madrid in the match odds market yet includes, by default, both teams and thus captured the amazing 4-0 scoreline to Real's opponents)
Pandorama won as expected and what a market at the off. 1.45 to back to win and 1.32 to back to place. Alas Muggins here backed him just after I'd written the blog at 1.17 thinking this horse would be all the rage but I also had a nibble at 1.32 as well - couldn't resist.
Racing Hero was a superb trade - drifted out to 3 before the off and flirted with 2.1 or thereabouts in running allowing for a nice in running back to lay trade

Lesson from yesterday - it would seem that Spanish games are 2 legged so do be careful as there may be an element of slackness in round one by the big boys ( I guess to get bums on seats for the home leg!)

13:30

Jablonec vs Zivanice

1/12

Czech Cup here and mentioned simply because of the odds -on betfair and there was a bit at 1.20 and higher - not in running

16:00

Hajduk Split vs Moslavina Kutina

1/8

Croatian cup here and again mentioned based on odds

18:00

Werder Bremen vs Kaiserslautern

4/11

Goal scorers by design, Werder are in the German Cup so can they be arsed or can't they be arsed ( a la Madrid?)
In running so of interest if the team news for Werder is strong

19:30

Z.Waregem vs KSK Ronse

1/8

Belgian Cup

19:30

Hoffenheim vs Koblenz

1/5

german Cup

19:35

Celtic vs Hearts

2/5

Old Firm usually dominate the Cup

19:45

Manchester City vs Scunthorpe

1/5

Strength in depth at City now should ensure a victory with even a 2nd string side and at home?

19:45

Chelsea vs Bolton

1/3

Importance of Cup for Chelsea will be seen in the team news

21:00

Cultural Leonesa vs Barcelona

9/1

4/1

2/9

Surely Cultural Leonesa cannot beat Barca, let alone beat them 4-0, regardless of the Barca side put out? I saw the 2nd string in a friendly against Man City, and though they lost 1-0, they hit the woodwork with monotonous regularity.
7 pm - AZ Alkmaar v Spakenburg - 1.11 on Betfair - should Spankenburg Spakenburg (yet again, if they show any remote interest in a cup game)
7pm - Twente v Capelle - again should be an easy win but need to see teams
Given the apparent fix with Real Madrid last night ( sponsored by a bookmaker -there you go!)
goals would be he bet in the Barca game - 1.19 over 1.5 goals looks acceptable

110 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Palio Square, 4/1 Pytheas, 5/1 Psychic Ability, 13/2 Mountain Quest, 12/1 Florentine Ruler, Grande Saggio, 16/1 Across The Sea, Dandino, Donair, Joe Rua, 20/1 Hail Bold Chief, Sansili, 50/1 Dubawi King, Inshaallah, Lord Wheathill,

DIOMED VERDICT: PALIO SQUARE sets a decent standard on form, should relish the step up to 1m and his experience could prove decisive.

Only 5 under 20/1 and it is hoped the race revolves around these - if so then Palio Square could have a good place chance but what of Pytheas? Hard to win with for Johnston but places with regularity

115 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Some Present, Evs Sweeps Hill, 33/1 False Economy, Prince Of Fire.

4 runners and 2 under 50/1 means a 50/50 race and barring falls should be easy pickings for place backers

130 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Infanta, 2/1 Tatiana Romanova, 9/4 Brink, 20/1 Rubicon Bay, 25/1 Charity Fair, 33/1 Dead Womans Pass.

DIOMED VERDICT: Infanta would not have to be any great shakes to make a winning debut but preference is for TATIANA ROMANOVA.

Only 3 under 20/1 but which of the 3 will not place? Godolphin debutant must be accounted for too given their form

320 PUNCH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Jered, 9/2 Lenabane, 8/1 Betabob, Meadows Thyne, 10/1 Adajal, Darby´s Turn, 14/1 Askmeroe, 16/1 Crusher Run, Etcetera Etcetera, Up N Under, 20/1 All The Cousins, Rebel Royal, The Thirsty Bricky, 25/1 Know The Rules, Major Finnegan, 50/1 Brackets, Major Melody.

the 3rd beginners chase and short priced fav and the other 2 have booted home

350 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Tafaool, 5/1 Aspro Mavro, Big Bay, 10/1 Lastroseofsummer, 14/1 Altimatum, 20/1 Montego Breeze, 33/1 Big Whitfield, 50/1 Kabougg, 66/1 Lily Wood, 100/1 Bawdsey Bank, Floods Of Tears, Quadrifolio.

DIOMED VERDICT: TAFAOOL's reappearance third at Newmarket is easily the most persuasive evidence in this line-up.

Only 3 under 20/1

410 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Hawkeyethenoo, 6/1 Igoyougo, 10/1 Avertuoso, Distant Sun, Prince Namid, Wicked Wilma, 12/1 Ingleby Star, Peninsular War, 14/1 Killer Class, 20/1 Lesley´s Choice, Mandarin Spirit, 25/1 Sandwith,

DIOMED VERDICT: HAWKEYETHENOO (nap) has thrived since being dropped in trip for current connections and he's capable of adding to last week's Ayr success, despite his penalty. Class 5 0-75 handicap price gapper 650 KEMP BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Looby Loo, 11/8 Wake Up Call, 8/1 Abbashinko, 12/1 Nativity, 25/1 Clever Omneya, 40/1 Athboy Auction, 50/1 Cativo, Sandy Par. DIOMED VERDICT: Wake Up Call has shown fair form in two starts on turf but LOOBY LOO, who has more speed in her pedigree, seems likely to be better suited by this sharp 6f and should improve on her promising debut. Straight 8 and 3 places and 2 clear market leaders ONE A DAY THe broadband is playing havoc with my work today and this is very late. 600 Werder Bremen - over 1.5 goals looks good and its in running - 1.16 involves both teams 745 - Man City v Scunny - even 2nd string City should have too much and perhaps they want to put down a marker in this new season of money 1.14 over 1.5 goals and 1.2 match odds 115 PUNCH - this must involve 2 horses from the 4 bar accidents but 1.06 and 1.07 tells you as much As this is rushed thanks to broadband or lack of, I can't really look i depth at horses. For me Man City to beat Scunny looks the call and over 1.5 goals at 1.14 involves both sides

27/10

I don't know what's happened at Benfica but another 6 goal haul for them yesterday to add to previous 6 goal and 8 goal scorelines. A team to follow on the overs market until the goals dry up.
Racy's 3rd place was perfect for place only backers and Godolphin continued their superb end to the flat campaign with 17/2 , 13/2 and 8/11 winners

European Cup games tonight -are they all Carling Cup equivalent?
Eintrecht Trier v FC Koln 1.5 - Bundelsliga opponens away from home. Will be a weelcome distraction from a poor league start for Koln.As ever, today, across Europe, how seriously are these teams taking any Cup game?
IFK Goteborg v Hamsteds - 1.28 - a league match this one and unbeaten at home where they have only failed to score 2 goals on one occasion. HAve scored 2 or more against teams at the foot of the table wherre Hamstads is. 0-0 head to head away to Hamstads may signal teir defensive intent.
Motivation? One point behind Solna at the head of the league - a must win for Goteborg to go on top, albeit briefly, and put the pressure on Solna to reciprocate when they play.
7pm - Athletico Ciudad v Sevilla 1.45 away - Spanish Cup game and team news vital for Sevilla who ,with a full time, will tear this lot apart.
7pm- Standard v Lierse - 1.31 - another Cup game and a strong home side ( 1st teamers) should win
730 - Nantes v laval - 1.68 - with Le Havre winning last time, nantes are priced to respond in this league fixture - word of caution - Laval beat Le HAvre away from home and I put Nantes on a par with them. Majority of Nantes games go over 2.5 goals and ,if in running, this could be a nice neutral bet including both sides. Also, possible enhanced bet as Laval have schown they can score away from home
745 - Barnsely v Man Utd - Fergie couldn't give a rat's arse about this cup -1.5 tells you team news has been factored in. Any involvement will be determined by strength of Man Utd side
745 - Dundee v Rangers - 1.55 - Scottish Cup - you saw with the 1.48 quoted about Rangers at home at the weekend that this signalled a tough match and so it proved. 1.55 away from home means this will be equally so.Dundee are no longer premier league status but this Cup game will, again, hinge on teams chospm - n
Feyenoord v Den Bosch - 1.23 - Dutch Cup game and Feyenoord have goals in them
8pm - Spurs v Everton 1.78 - I would look to goals here as both teams may experiment with their sides
9pm -Alcorcan v Real Madrid - 1.49 - rarely will you see Real Madrid at 1/2 against an unknown side ,and this belies the fact that the team is likely to be fringe players ( although horse face might get a run out?)

One reader made an interesting point. By opting for over 1.5 goals instead of backing a short odds team to win, w are, by default, including BOTH sides as we are betting on goals. BOTH sides are searching for goals and are playing FOR us. This is something to think about. I term this a " neutral " bet as you are not hoping one team only scores. This would have profitted in the famous Barca v Rubin kazan game for example

110 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Longliner, 4/1 Commissionaire, Sarrsar, 6/1 Solicitor, 12/1 Soho Theatre, 20/1 Doyenne Dream, 40/1 Strike A Deal, Wavertree Bounty, 66/1 Ava Doll, 100/1 Astromoon, Firefly Mustique,

DIOMED VERDICT: The newcomers should be monitored closely in the betting but the one to beat is LONGLINER who shaped nicely on his debut and is the only runner with a Group-race entry (the Derby)

Only 5 under 25/1 and a price gapper now 4/7 - but as usual it's a maiden - he's only had one run and their are some hot potential debutants in opposition 1.11 to place

140 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 London Stripe, 7/2 Mass Rally, 9/2 Swift Return, 13/2 Lileo, 9/1 Notice Given, 11/1 En Fuego, 12/1 Bondage, Eye Of Eternity, 14/1 Seamster, 40/1 No Complaining, 66/1 Astrovenus, 150/1 Dovedon Diva.

DIOMED VERDICT: Mass Rally and Swift Return command some respect on paper but the once-raced LONDON STRIPE, whose trainer has won three of the last five renewals of this contest, probably has greater potential.

Again it's that word " potential" and London Stripe, a son of Rock of Gibraltar, is fancied here 1.22 to place

210 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Landowner, 9/2 Dormer Fleet, Scottish Boogie, 13/2 Pictures, 10/1 Hellenio, 12/1 Amno Dancer, 14/1 Emma Dora, Rosedale, 66/1 Carlcol Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: Landowner is progressing nicely and could take plenty of beating under a penalty but SCOTTISH BOOGIE is an interesting alternative on his nursery debut.

more 2 year olds but Godolphin at head of the market and they cannot be ignored in current form 1.2 to place

240 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Vito Volterra, 9/2 Ibmab, 5/1 Ragsta, Whipperway, 8/1 Little Perisher, Pearl Of Kent, 10/1 Rufus Roughcut, 16/1 Better Be Blue, 20/1 Chorus Boy, 28/1 Cygnet Committee, Mrs Puff, 40/1 Walnut Rise, 66/1 Man In The Mirror.

DIOMED VERDICT: There isn't a great deal between several of these on paper and the marginal verdict goes to RAGSTA who was beaten only inside the last furlong in a 1m nursery here last week.

A 2 year old claimer and only of interest for the move for the fav into 6/4 -----6/1 but a race for me of little appeal 1.44 to place

310 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hayzoom, 11/2 Lion Mountain, Parvaaz, 13/2 Bullet Train, Egyptology, Snoqualmie Star, 8/1 Comradeship, 14/1 Sory, 25/1 Kathleen Frances, 40/1 Zenarinda, 66/1 Flag Of Glory.

DIOMED VERDICT: There are several well-bred newcomers who could prove up to the task and the betting should be revealing. HAYZOOM, the only runner with a Pattern-race entry, is one of the likelier sorts.

lion Mountain now 7/4 and Bullet train 2/1 - both debutants and both 2 year olds (again!)

Lion is the Godolphin horse and I have already highlighted their strong form at present 1.29 and 1.36 to place illiquid markets so may rise

325 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Pandorama, 5/1 Clan Tara, 6/1 Mick The Man, 7/1 Oligarch Society, 10/1 Square Sphere, 12/1 Model Athlete, Power Of Attorney, Yes Ben, 14/1 Adenauer, Fort George, Shan Ros, 20/1 Canal Bank, Saddlers Storm, 25/1 Borolee, Winterdown Star, 33/1 Supreme Seabird, Two Jackets Joe, 50/1 Alwaysandforever,

A group 1 and group2 novice hurdle winner, albeit in small fields, making his chasing debut today and like Dunguib, looks to be a better horse class wise than the opposition. Now 2/5 and soft ground but has won on soft and heavy 1.16 to place

410 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Racing Hero, 7/2 Deportment, 6/1 Too Tall, 8/1 Starkat, 17/2 Green Agenda, 9/1 Naheell, 10/1 Panto Princess, 25/1 Group Leader, Mt Kintyre.

DIOMED VERDICT: RACING HERO was firmly back on track when making all and winning well at Doncaster on Saturday. A similar display should make him tough to beat under his penalty with potential improver Deportment the main threat.

4 length front running win under this jockey last time. Penalty to carry but fancied to be competitive again 1.35 to place - I have the feeling that if Frankie does his front running today which was so successful last time, that both the win and place prices will fall incrementally as the race progresses. 2.72 to back to win, and to nick ourselves a 1.2 equivalent bet ,we only need the horse to hit 2.52 in the win market.
This is a bet where I would back now, and place my lay bet at 2.45 ( to compensate for greening up on all selections) and hope that Dettori gets the horse out in front for sufficient time to allow the price to shorten in running


425 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Vertige Dore, 3/1 Summit Meeting, 7/2 Perfect Smile, 8/1 Val San Vito, 10/1 Get It On, 12/1 Al Ferof, Vardas Partner, 14/1 Age Benefit, Burgundy Boy, 16/1 Courtly Conduct, Ragdoll, 20/1 Bramley Man, Sonic Beat, 25/1 Rebel Princess, Wango.

Paddy Power has this one at 8/11 and it's there by reputation - the Mullins yard - no Ruby on board though and this is a bumper so there might be some likely ones at bigger prices here.28 to place

SHORTLIST

It's a difficult day today under both codes. In the football, almost exclusively we are greeted with Cup games and the sensible thing to do in all of these games is to wait for team news on the fancies.
This holds true for Sevilla, Real madrid, Man Utd and Rangers - we cannot select any team just yet as we do not know the team news. Real Madrid would be the most interesting for me given their apparent strength in depth and big price of 1.49 given their opponents are relatively unknown - a strong side and I'll be on
From a horse racing perspective, it's pretty much 2 year old races, maidens, claimers and nurseries - and we simply cannot put maximum faith in 2 year olds as by their very nature they're still learning.
1) IFK GOTEBORG V HAMSTADS - this would be my first pick today as this is a league match and the home team are very motivated to get to the top of the league, which they will do with a win. A cover of 0-0 if I was backing , given recent head to heads, and perhaps a visit to over 1.5 goals? 1.25 over 1.5 goals and 21 for correct score 0-0 which means if you backed over 1.5 goals for £100 you would need to back correct score 0-0 for £5.50
2)NANTES V LAVAL - over 1.5 goals again here given Laval's shock win at Le Havre last time. nantes have almost exclusively managed 2 goals a game and this is another league match so no question marks regarding weakened teams and lack of motivation - NOT IN RUNNING
3) 110 YARMOUTH - Longliner was 1 length 3rd placed last time out, has the hint of a Hard to beat selection, and has a group entry ( so well thought of). Ryan Moore in the plate, only 5 under 20/1 so hopefully a lot of deadwood here.Drop in class to class 5
And now the negatives - 2 year old maiden race - Strike a deal and Astromoon potential market movers at big prices - only had the one run and automatically expected to reproduce that form ( and this cannot be guaranteed with any 2 year old)
1.11 to place is strong in the place market
4) 325 PUNCHESTOWN - Pandorama has done it over hurdles at the highest level and begins his chasing career as red hot favourite ( and why not - wins in group 1 and group 2 company over hurdles attest to the horse's strong formlines)
Has not been out since February 2009 and we saw with Dunguib last time, he may be a little keen in the early stages and this may produce the odd mistake.
1.16 to place is reasonable given the quality of the horse but note that he has not been out recently and takes on a new code today. Still, THE horse in the field
5) 410 YARMOUTH - Racing hero is interesting, if only from a trading angle. As explained above I would seek to back in the win market, hope Frankie reverts to front running tactics, and get out at a prearranged price To create a 1.20 return with £100, I would back at 2.74 for £100 and lay off at 2.28 for £120.74
2.28 is a little short and it's quite a move down to that price -that's a slight niggle - a risky bet if the horse does not run well early. Hinges purely on the tactics this bet and the anticipation of front running

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1)The one footy game of interest at time of writing ( this will change of course as team news for the teams mentioned in the cup games becomes available) is the Goteborg game. We have the important Motivation factor here in this league game and I would go for over.1.5 goals with a cover of the 0-0 correct score in the betfair market incase there is a replay of their last head to head. This takes the 1.25 bet down to 1.20 in real terms . The match is in running and the hope is for an early goal.
2) Real Madrid of great interest if seeing strong team news
3)325 PUNCHESTOWN - Pandorama is head and shoulders above this lot and w have to overcome an absence and a change to chase fences today. Soft ground is no concern on past form for this group winner and this is likely to be a return on the start of a campaign which will take in the big races over the coming months culminating at Cheltenham.1.16 at present and my confidence is based on those group 1 wins

ONE A DAY
It's such a difficult day today - nothing solid and all based on "potential" and team news in the footy. At time of writing, I think Pandorama should place ,but there's risks with this bet too - a long absence and new code, but I hope croup 1 and group2 winning form cement some class to the horse.
If you don't fancy this ( it is not really a solid nailed on one a day bet given the niggles) then hold out for team news this evening and get on the one with a solid looking team ( my eye is firmly on Real Madrid this evening

26/10

New rule for me - football matches must be in running. Shaktar scored first and I could not trade out - they go on to draw 1-1 and go a man down. Contrast with over 1.5 goals in the Arsenal match. They go 1-0 up , you can trade out at 1.07 to lay, having backed at 1.22
Job done.
Again, I was happy with the football generally. West Ham did what they did with Liverpool another top 4 side) and scored twice. As seen in the October newsletter, this method of guaging likely goals by similar opposition played last time is proving very effective. Similar with Porto. I hinted at a fight from the bottom side and so it was 0-0 half time before the inevitable Porto breakthrough. Barca reverted to type thank God. Shooting boots working again, and Dunguib was an easy winner, as expected - watch out for him at Cheltenham in March - a serious horse.
120 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Racy, 4/1 Chaperno, Ongoodform, 6/1 Magnus Thrax, Treadwell, 10/1 Regency Art, 20/1 Ramamara, 100/1 Ballyvonane, Billyonair.

DIOMED VERDICT: There was good support for MAGNUS THRAX in a better race than this at Newmarket last month and he may have more to come. Very interesting with 2 100/1 or bigger Racy now 10/11 - - - - - 5/1 in live market. 1.2 to place 150 LING BETTING FORECAST: Evs Treasure Town, 7/1 Life And Soul, 8/1 Penangdouble O One, 12/1 Boston Blue, Kahfre, Lady Cavendish, 20/1 Big Hands Lynch, Rakhapura, 33/1 Consult, Patachou, 100/1 Daryainur, DIOMED VERDICT: TREASURE TOWN made a promising debut at Leicester and can get off the mark in a weak maiden Yes it's a maiden, and yes he's only had one run but godolphin have been in great recent form 1.2 to place 205 GALWAY BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Last Draw, 7/2 Daneva, 14/1 Teve Na Mara, 20/1 Regal Obligation, 100/1 Opsimath, The Three Colleens. Heavy ground here but a horse who knows how to win on heavy. At least 3 outsiders should reduce the competitive field. 1.33 to win and 1.08 to place and is proven on heavy 250 LING BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Tinaar, 3/1 Akbabend, 5/1 Hajmah, 8/1 Colonel Flay, Evident Pride, 12/1 Mister New York, Shady Lady, 14/1 Resurge, 16/1 Wind Flow. DIOMED VERDICT: TINAAR has a progressive profile and can return to winning ways in a competitive handicap. Price gapper here now 5/4 live market. But 16/1 the outsider indicates competitive 1.34 to place 310 KEMP BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Mutafajer, 7/2 Silk Street, 9/2 Grey Bunting, 6/1 Dame Shanakill, Prizefighting, 11/1 Alubari, Silent Dancer, 16/1 Ana Moutabahi, 20/1 Dhan Dhana, 28/1 Far View, 66/1 Celtic Ransom, Passionate Cry, Roybuoy, 100/1 Joan´s Legacy. DIOMED VERDICT: Silk Street, Grey Bunting and MUTAFAJER look open to improvement having shown promise on their first start. The newcomers should be monitored in the betting. Godolphin again 10/11 in places 1.23 to place 330 LEIC BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sovereign Remedy, 4/1 Mabait, 11/2 Swift Chap, 12/1 Kinsya, 14/1 Charlie Tipple, Daaweitza, Zomerlust, 16/1 Cobo Bay, Rock Anthem, Spitfire, 20/1 Guilded Warrior, 50/1 City Of The Kings, Stevie Gee. DIOMED VERDICT: SOVEREIGN REMEDY will be hard to beat if reproducing last week's demolition job on Fibresand now returned to turf. Potential hard to beat selection, but 2nd and 3rd have both won their last 2 1.59 to place footy 5pm - apoel 1.22 - recent game performances against Chelsea and Porto show they are in good heart but then the same could have been said about Shaktar yesterday -NOT IN RUNNING so we can't secure the bet if they score first 815 Benfica v nacional 1.32 - scored 14 goals in 3 games at home - unbeaten this season - on a 6 game winning streak - in 4 of last 5 games they have scored 3 or more goals - NAcional lost 3-0 to Porto so this is a guide to how they may perform against Benfica, Sporting lisbon and Braga. Have lost to 2 of the top 5 away from home. On a 3 match winning run. Odds look about right here. Need to ensure no injury worries for Benfica as the guys who have been slotting the goals in will want to be playing this evening. SHORTLIST 120 LING- - Racy should face 5 realistic contenders here for 3 places and is very well fancied in the betting 205 GALWAY - The last draw is proven on heavy and so this is not a major concern. A concern is only 2 places Benfica are in the form of their lives at the moment. Concern is that winning streaks and sequences always end some time ONE A DAY The last draw I would see as the riskiest bet of the above 3 despite ability to handle heavy ground.2 places allow for no margin of error and 1.08 is a little too small . Like the other day with Illuminative, the win market can be approached I suppose to lay off in running Racy - any niggles? well it's 2 year olds again and they are still learning. A 5 horse race if we can discount 25/1 and 2 100/1 horses. Positives? - Ryan Moore on board and progressive Benfica - have been red hot but sequencing a concern -losing run will end. My choice today? Racy but for those not liking 2 year olds then Benfica look solid with trading in mind

25/10

What a tricky day it was yesterday, with the majority of jumps fancies fading and unplacing. I made the right decision with Italy under 17's as they won 5-0. COmpare that to 1.09 shots Holland who lost 2-1 and you see why under 17's football betting can be precarious.
St Nicholas Abbey - oh me of little faith - 1.5 to place and I let him go !
Very happy with the football (sorry the football blog did not publish yesterday for some reason) - Bayern went a goal down in a match I thought they were a little short for, but if you fancied Bayern, then enhanced bets ahoy as they ended up winning 2-1.
Ditto Olympiakos - 1-0 down and ended up winning 2-1 ( they were 1.23 to win pre match)
I got the Inter correct score of 2-1 spot on - but Spurs wrong - the key? Defoe's absence for me. As you saw with Stoke's away record of 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, they keep things tight and the onus is on the home team to score first. As you see with the 2 1-1's, Stoke can score away. Yesterday their plan went to perfection. They stopped home team scoring and went and nicked one late on.
Rangers -the odds told you it was tricky, but Rangers backers would have been ok if they traded at 1-0 up - result was 1-1.
Compare Chelsea's scoreline yesterday to that of Arsenal's against Blackburn - almost identical - 6 goals as against 5 and this is the basis behind an article I did in October's WRWM
Bordeaux won again at home and it was 1-0 for a long period . A side to keep the right side of for sure at home.

Onto today, and with the clocks changing I have an extra hour so footy first
12pm - Zakarpattyr v Shaktar 1.13 - the form team in the Europa league and 1.13 away signals goals Only match odds market available and not in running. I have availed myself of the 1.14 available which is better odds than the bookies at 1.10 so a value bet despite the short odds
1230 - Hamilton v Celtic - 1.23 - Rangers beat Hamilton 4-1 at Rangers. Celtic are away to Hamilton but this scoreline should be indicative of what Celtic should do today in an ideal world.Hamilton have lost 2, shipping 5 goals, drawn 1 and won 1 against Hibs 2-0 (they kept RAngers at bay yesterday) so a hint that they may up their games against top of the table sides at home?)
A must win for Celtic with Rangers only drawing at home yesterday. Do watch out for team news as McGeady may be injured and I rate him highly
1pm Leichtenstein v Russia under 19's 1.09 - this is the price at which Holland's under 17's faltered yesterday so caution with these non senior squad games, but I lump Leichtenstein in with Andorra, San Marino, et al as teams which should not win.
Highly illiquid market
130pm - Twente v Grongingen -1.48 - Schteve, how you say, McClaren's Twente have only dropped points with a 1-1 v PSV at home this season. Grongingen have lost to 2 of the top 3 sides at home by 2-0 so that should indicate what Twente are possible of today they sit top
1.48 indicates (like in the Rangers game yesterday) that this could be a frustrating game and anyone fancying Schteve's, how you say, team should get involved with a view to trading if Twente get the first goal. Good possible enhanced bet game this one
3pm Man City v Fulham - 1.5 - City have scored and won in all home matches this season. Fulham's away form is moderate with 2 losses, a draw and a win v Pompey expected I'm sure!)
Should be goals here I would think and this is the market I would look at as it includes both teams
415 West Ham v Arsenal 1.5 - enal have scored in all away games and their last derby, against Fulham away ,ended 1-0. Could be more of the same today? Gunners have goals in them at home, there's no doubt, their only away losses coming from the Manchester teams
Hammers home saw them lose 2-3 and 2-1 to current top 5 sides and more of he same should be expected today. Again I would err on the side of a neutral bet with goals the option
8pm - Barcelona v Zaragoza - 1.1 9 - the goals have dried up for Barca in last 2 games 1-0 win and 0-0 , and the loss in the Champions league made me suffer (although it was great for enhanced bets backers)
Zaragoza have not won away yet, and should be dealt with this evening by Barca. An added incentive for Barca is the 0-0 yesterday in the Real Madrid game - this is a superb opportunity to put 3 points on the board.
815pm Porto 1.20 - like Inter Milan and Bordeaux, another side with a great home record and they should not be opposed at home - playing the bottom side today and should be a comfortable evening. That said, bottom sides can frustrate and Academica have not lost by more than one goal away, for example against league leaders Braga they only lost 1-0

In this transition to the jumps proper, like yesterday, I would lean more towards a football bet than a horse bet, but I haven't seen the markets yet and something may stand out. There's just the niggle that strongly supported jumps horses are generally all coming back from a layoff and the obstacles are always there of course ( who would have thought Noble Alan yesterday under McCoy would be unplaced in a 4 horse race? - shows the power of one a day betting too!)

135 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Stormy Weather, 13/2 Knock Three Times, 8/1 Coeur Brule, Mehendi, 10/1 Beat The Devil, 14/1 Kind Heart, New Tricks, 20/1 Molesden Glen, 33/1 Ernies Keep, 100/1 Midnight Bay.

DIOMED VERDICT: STORMY WEATHER could be a class or two above these provided he jumps proficiently and should be able to see off previous winner Knock Three Times.

Read the words in italics above and this sums up place only jumps betting. A price gapper here and a jumps debutant 1.15 to place

210 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Cappa Bleu, 11/2 Little Josh, 13/2 Door Boy, 8/1 Khachaturian, 20/1 Supreme Builder.

DIOMED VERDICT: CAPPA BLEU put up a high-class hunter chase performance in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham on his debut under rules and the sky's the limit this season.

NEar identical profile to Noble Alan race - McCoy on a shortie but Noble did not place yesterday.Not run since my birthday (13 March) at Cheltenham and a tall reputation needs to be shown again - only one horse can really be discounted here 1.28 to place

250 WEXFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 For The Staff, 5/1 Ocean Cowboy, 8/1 Immediate Response, 12/1 Page One Two Nine, 14/1 Ravenclaw, 20/1 Cool Dude Luke, 25/1 West Ship Master, 50/1 Itmaybeyou, 66/1 Cymau Lass, Sheupshedownshe, 100/1 Dream Home.

1/3 now for the Mullins stable but Ruby not onboard. 3 miles in soft ground -will take a leap of faith to lump on 1.09 to place

330 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Conclave, 4/1 Porticcio, 6/1 On The Way Out, 7/1 Eagle´s Pass, 8/1 Judge Roy Bean, 10/1 Kahuna, 12/1 Le Marquis, 14/1 My True Romance, 16/1 On Your Way, Smack That, 20/1 Knockieran, Sinatra Bar, 25/1 Erra Go On, 33/1 Mister Castlefield, 40/1 L´Oiseau De Feu.

Ruby is in Galway with another Mullins horse Conclave 5/4 - - - -7/1 in the live market 1.45 to place

355 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Bold Addition, 9/4 Cranky Corner, 5/1 Meridian City, Pure Faith, 25/1 Canal Cottage, Solway Ally, Steveys Lad, 33/1 Quick Live, 50/1 Grand Union, Knight Woodsman, Mansolias, Princess Tahoe, 100/1 Gavroche Gaugain.

DIOMED VERDICT: Cranky Corner sets a good standard but may find the hefty penalty his undoing against the promising hurdling newcomer BOLD ADDITION.

Only 4 under 20/1 can hopefully dominate and the placed horses come from these.1.65 and 1.34 the front 2 to place - looks like they fancy the penalty carrying Cranky Corner

400 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Dunguib, 8/1 An Toileanach, 10/1 Fairymount Lord, 14/1 Brave Heart, No Toll, 16/1 Mats Teacher, Sounds Great, 20/1 Arabella Beaufort, 25/1 Grounded Again, Leader Bobby, Lou´s Coole Girl, Mighty Vexatious, Miss Hackenbush, Steviemac, 33/1 Countess Of Reoss, The Flying Scholar, 50/1 Chelsea Wells, Dalys Express, Duke Of Otranto, Max Drive,

Rarely have I ever seen a 1/6 shot over the jumps. Dunguib is THE horse in Ireland at the moment, the one they're all talking about - 1st past the post last time but disqualified as had an illiegal substance in him. Hopefully connections will have kept him out of the pubs and clubs of Galway and he can win today. He must be related to Pegasus the flying horse if he's 1/6 to win or his opponents' jockeys all have to ride with blindfolds on.
1.21 to win and, get this, 1.14 to place. - only £50 mind you

SHORTLIST
12pm - Zakarpattyr v Shaktar 1.13 - in rude health as seen when scoring another 4 in the Europa league mid week

West Ham v Arsenal over 1.5 goals is a tasty 1.22 and we should get a good run for our money surely. Tradeable as well as this game is in running in contrast to Shaktar's

Barcelona at 1.19 usually deliver ( and to be fair mid week they hit the crossbar twice when 2-1 down - a matter of inches divide them from victory) - team news vital here - want to see the big guns out in force - motivation with Real drawing yesterday adds to the justification to get involved

Porto -1.20 - included, like Bordeaux, because of their great home record and an ideal opportunity against the bottom side
330 GALWAY - I highlighted a Walsh/Mullins gamble last week which won at 2/1 - Conclave looks similar here
400 GALWAY -Dunguib must be some horse to be 1.22 to win in a maiden hurdle. He has exclusively raced only over the flat in national hunt flat races so jumping is to be taken on trust.
I was amazed to see 1.14 available to back in the place market, considering 1.22 is the win only price but this has been gobbled up of course as it looks like a rick on the part of some betfairian (or a wise soul perhaps who sees a horse who has not jumped a hurdle in anger making his debut today)

ONE A DAY
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1)Will the Arse game be reminiscent of the 1-0 v Fulham or will it be reminiscent of the Hammers experiences against the big clubs at home ( goals!!) If the latter then 1.22 over 1.5 goals is extremely attractive. This is a tradeable bet
2)Shaktar at 1.14 are very backable given their recent form and the fact this price is far bigger than the bookmakers, ( every little helps) I have backed Shaktar gicen the bigger price on Betfair despite this not being in running
3)400 GALWAY - if getting anything remotely near 1.14 to place, then this must be seen as a value bet for a horse 1.22 to win. NOTE - this is a maiden hurdle and the clue is in the title - Dunguib has done nothing over fences because he hasn't been over fences - impressive wins have all been in bumpers
I personally have backed Shaktar myself - begins at midday and would seek over 1.5 goals in the Arse game as an alternative ( with trading in mind as always)

2410

No problems with Illuminative yesterday - the 1.45 i mentioned was spanked down to 1.3 at the off allowing a risk free trade before the race had even gone off!!

120 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Aiteen Thirtythree, 9/4 Reve De Sivola, 8/1 Frascati Park, 16/1 Dream Garden, 20/1 Pterodactyl, 25/1 Bygones Of Brid.

DIOMED VERDICT: Aiteen Thirtythree brings a very big reputation to this hurdling debut but REVE DE SIVOLA was himself a very exciting prospect last term.

Again it's that WalshNicholls partnership who are set to dominate for another season in what looks a 3 horse race and 2 places. No recent form for any of these so it's reputation that puts them wherre they are in the market - 1.45 to place and only 2 places


155 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Alfie Sherrin, 5/1 Bakbenscher, 13/2 Prince Taime, 8/1 Argento Luna, 10/1 Mr Thriller, 12/1 Ring The Boss, Secret Tune, 16/1 El Dancer, Elusive Dream, South O´The Border, 20/1 Amber Brook, Dantari, Golan Way, 25/1 To Arms, 33/1 Mumbles Head, Oscar Park, 50/1 King´s Revenge.

DIOMED VERDICT: A race packed with fascinating runners, headed perhaps by the unbeaten Alfie Sherrin and the EBF Final runner-up BAKBENSCHER (nap).

A case of " same again" - a listed hurdles race and a price gapper now 138 for that WalshNicholls combo - 1.43 place and 4 places

225 chEP
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Meanus Dandy, 5/1 Jaunty Journey, 6/1 Brenin Cwmtudu, 7/1 Black Ven, 16/1 Cannington Brook, 20/1 Shady Hollow, 100/1 Royal Gunner, Windinthewillows.

DIOMED VERDICT: Jaunty Journey, Brenin Cwmtudu and Black Ven have all shown plenty of ability over hurdles but MEANUS DANDY looked a good staying prospect in points.

8 down to 7 and yes you guessed it, those guys at the head of the market -3 places this and a big price gap again. ( note 8 runners originally 3rd and 5th might be worth support on Betfair ( still 3 places) each way) 1.17 to place and 3 places and a nice price gap augurs well here

325 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Noble Alan, 5/2 Five Dream, 13/2 Son Of Flicka, 12/1 Folk Tune.

DIOMED VERDICT: NOBLE ALAN was the best of these over hurdles and, after jumping soundly and winning well on his chase debut, is likely to win again if putting in a similar display. The odds may be unattractive, though.

Like Baily storm yesterday, turned out again and strong market leader - Baily Storm did the biz yesterday, can Noble under McCoy do likewise today 1.18 to place

330 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 St Nicholas Abbey, 4/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 5/1 Al Zir, 7/1 Coordinated Cut, 14/1 Dancing David, 16/1 Shakespearean, 20/1 Morana, Musaafer, 33/1 Al Ghazal, Elusive Award, 50/1 Hanson´D, 100/1 Big Audio.

DIOMED VERDICT: A strong-looking renewal in which ST NICHOLAS ABBEY can give Aidan O'Brien his fifth win in the race by beating Elusive Pimpernel.

Aiden O'Brien and Murtagh team up on a shortie here and they rarely disappoint. Up in class to group 1
Interestingly no pacesetters for Ballydoyle this time 1.5 relays the fact this is a group 1 so all are quality animals and it's highly competitive

445 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Royal Collonges, 13/8 Chamirey, 9/1 Tell Massini, 20/1 Paddy Live, Paktol Des Brosses, 25/1 Finmere, Rhum, 33/1 Knight In The City, 100/1 Lupita, Me Julie.

DIOMED VERDICT: This is probably between the ex-French pair Chamirey and ROYAL COLLONGES.

Front 2 to dominate 4th and 5th favs out here 1.1 and 1.23 the front 2 - straight 8 runners here too

FOOTY
115pmKhimki v Spartak Moscow 1.23 away - lost to Rubin Kazan 2-1 last week and Rubin were shorter odds. Head to head recently 1-0 to Spartak so I would expect Spartak backers to have to sweat it out here
2pm Italy under 17 v Moldova under 17 - 1.14 - likely to be an illiquid market with all the major European games of ore interest to BEtfairians but I tend to oppose Moldova, Andorra, San Marino as a matter of course. Could be a simple one a day here - risk is the level of footy - these are nippers but the pool of resources at Italy as opposed to San Marino should ensure a comfortable time
230 Bayern Munich v Frankfurt - Ribery a big blow to attacking options for Bayern - 2 draws and 2 wins at home this term -Frankfurt lost one and won 2 away from home - one of those games was against Werder Bremen so where does this 1.3 for Bayern come from? Am I missing something re team news for Frankfurt?
3pm - Netherlands under 17 v Malta under 17 - 1.09 - again should be a huge gulf here but under 17's I know nothing about
3pm Rangers v Hibs 1.48 - should be a tricky encounter here -1.48 for the Old Firm normally indicates as much ( and at home as well!) Good enhanced game if Hibs score first
3pm - Spurs v Stoke - 3 draws and an away loss to Stoke , albeit against lower teams in the table than the SPuds.Spurs have such a goalscoring threat that I would be liable to back them and trade after the score first as Stoke are likely to keep it tight as they have proven the 1-1, 1-1, -0- away from home. BUT Liverpool's 4-0 win could offer some optimism as Spurs are 3rd in the table..
5pm - Olympiakos v Ergotilis - 1.23 - beaten 3-0 by Panathanaikos at home, this could
be a guide to the scoreline today - Ergo have drawn 2 and won 1 away from home
530pm - Chelsea v Blackburn - 1.2 - similarly priced when giving a spanking to Athletico Madrid - Blackburn have lost 3 away from home including the drubbing at Arsenal .
6pm - Bordeaux v Le Mans - 1.3- excellent home form but the goals have dried up recently - 2 1-0 home wins in direct contrast to the 4-1's earlier on.
Le Mans lost all 4 away by 1-0 and 2-1 scorelines indicating they don't get spanked. Bordeaux, like Inter Milan, you back until they lose at home ( preferably lay opponents) - they went all last season unbeaten at home
745pm - Inter v Catania - 1.29 - away side lost to 2 of top 4 2-1 so expecation for that sort of scoreline. Inter unbeaten at home - Catania 2 0-0's away from home most recently so I doubt we'll be seeing a goalfest

SHORTLIST
225 CHEPSTOW - Meanus Dandy a price gapper - 1.17 reasonable and again faith in connections as all jumps horses are coing back from layoffs
325 AINTREE - 5050 race - 4 runners and 2 places - Noble Alan unde McCoy and he is dependable 3 of 4 are winners last time out so a niggle there. Nicholls runners cannot be dismissed either
330 DONCASTER - St Nicholas Abbey a talking horses- lots written about this one - 1.5 to place tells you this is high class
2pm Italy under 17 v Moldova under 17 - 1.13 - Moldova, Malta, San MArino, Andorra all opposable. NOT IN RUNNING
3pm Netherlands under 17 v Malta under 17 - see above
3pm -Spurs v Stoke - dependable at short odds this season and I would like to see Crouch but Harry doesn't normally start with them. A game where I would get out if Spus score the first goal
530 - Chelsea v Blackburn - 1.2 - brought the odds home mid week and similar expected today - Blackburn did score first v Arse so watch out enhanced bettors!!
Chelsea have scored 11 goals either side of half time, so dont panic if no early breakthrough
6pm Bordeaux v Le Mans - included because of the home record against a side who keep things tight away from home
745 Inter v Catania - as above re home form

ONE A DAY
The problem with the jumps horses today is that they are generally coming back from 6 months or more off and so fitness and faith in connections is the key
Itally uder 17's stand out for me today - 1.13 compared to the 1.17's about the jumps favourites coming back from a layoff. Not in running alas.
Spurs have been ultra dependable - no Daniel Defoe today which is a big concern for me as he is the highest goalscorer , but Crouch offers another angle in
Chelsea at 1.2 offer some degree of solidity if under 17's don't fill you with confidence
Of the horses Meanus Dandy could be the one today in a 7 runner race, 2 horses are 40/1 and 100/1 reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place

For me though, Italy under 17's offer a degree of hope against such poor opposition. Good luck with your picks - there are so many opportunities today it's a matter of making the right decision

23/10

No problems from Shaktar yesterday - 3-0 by half time and a nice early goal for trepidacious traders like me

The day begins with 3 maidens on the trot followed by a selling hurdle - YIKES!
310 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Baily Storm, 5/2 Shut The Bar, 7/1 Sir Punjabi, 14/1 Barbirolli, 100/1 Renege The Joker.

DIOMED VERDICT: BAILY STORM should be able to go one better than at Plumpton on Monday.

Remeber him? 2nd at 1/4 and a one a day bet. Similar race type again with 2 deemed to be outsiders limiting this to 3 fighting for 2 places
The recent run is of course very encouraging and a plus. Shut the bar looks the obvious alternative - 1.13 pla ce

440 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tanfidh, 8/1 Bruton Street, 9/1 History Lesson, Luc Jordan, 10/1 Call It On, 11/1 Embsay Crag, 12/1 Puzzlemaster, Sequillo, Splinter Cell, Whooshka, 20/1 Capeability, Hollow Green, Norwegian Dancer, Wee Giant, 33/1 Mishrif.

DIOMED VERDICT: Fast-improving TANFIDH (nap), from a good family and ahead of the handicapper, should take the beating if handling easier ground.

First price gapper of note today and backed into 7/4 - on a hatrick but apparently 6lb ahead of the handicapper and the one to beat, as Diomed said ,IF handling the ground 1.58 to place

450 FAKE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Chapel Flowers, 4/1 You Can Of Course, 5/1 Toi Express, 10/1 Ben Tirran, 14/1 Feeling Peckish, Supreme Team, 20/1 Miss Merenda, 25/1 Mad Professor.

DIOMED VERDICT: CHAPEL FLOWERS (nap) can make a winning debut for Tim Vaughan in a very weak handicap chase.

8 runner race and Chapel flowers odds on ( remember my each way jumps idea too - one of 3 races today!) 1.15 to place

840 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Illuminative, 6/1 Lilly Grove, 10/1 Heathyards Junior, 12/1 Jobekani, 20/1 Good Karma, Magic Queen, Meml, Tagula Minx, Very Distinguished, 33/1 Ay Tay Tate, 50/1 Chicamia, Davana, Sleepy Dove.

DIOMED VERDICT: ILLUMINATIVE won't be found a weaker maiden in which to get off the mark and this is there for the taking.

Another significant price gapper who has had the runs on the all weather and this looks ripe for the place only picking 1.09

910 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Cape Marien, 5/1 Bold Adventure, 8/1 Deuce, Murcar, 10/1 Alnwick, Basalt, Tayman, 14/1 Eyeffess, Rainbow Dash, 33/1 Pagan Sword.

DIOMED VERDICT: CAPE MARIEN is thriving at present and with stamina unlikely to be a problem, she can complete her hat-trick.

The 2nd price gapper on a hatrick in a handicap 1.27

FOOTBALL
Cambuur 1/5 v Omniworld - Dutch 1st Division -unbeaten and top - 7 wins - 5 draws
3 from 5 score draws at home though a slight niggle
Omniworld in shocking form and have been beaten away at 2nd,3rd,4th,5th and 6th place ( remember Cambuur 1st place)
Would be nice to see this in running

SHORTLIST
840 Wolves stood but for me but 1.09 at time of writig is giving nothing away -1.45 win market and a good initial start will see this reduce dramatically - I would like to try to get 1.15 ( lay off at 1.30 in running)
Baily Storm is intriguing too in another 3 for the 2 places race. - these are the only 2 under 16/1 - but ? over why he could not win at 1/4
Cambuur look to be in rude health at the moment but there is a concern with the 3 draws at home. Not in running either which is the negative

ONE A DAY - was the 840 Wolves for me and at 1pm it is folly to nail this one to the mast with 7+ hours til kick off. A market to look again at nearer the off ( and being the weekend this should be no problem) But looks nailed on for the place and no doubt, a la Demonstrative, about not handling the surface as he has been twice on the all weather.
I will try a riskier option myself of backing and laying off at a price short enough to make me about 1.15

22/10

Pride of Dulcote won as expected really ( assuming no fall as it is jumps). I was very happy with the football yesterday. 0-0 1-0 I suggested Man Utd , and a neutral bet in over 1.5 goals Real Madrid cos we just didn't know which Milan would turn up - well good bet that as Milan won 3-2
Enhanced bet? Porto a goal down and 1.25 shots and ended up winning 2-1.
If I'd have known Athletico Madrid wouldn't turn up, then I would have lumped on the 1.47 Chelsea!

200 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 High Importance, 2/1 Essexbridge, 5/1 Tahseen, 8/1 Bonnie Brae, 12/1 Avon Rock, 33/1 Penderyn, Varachi.

DIOMED VERDICT: HIGH IMPORTANCE (nap) did enough on his Lingfield debut from a wide draw to suggest he can beat Essexbridge this time.

2 of the best on High and Essex but 2 places and a maiden race 1.33 high importance to place

255 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Unforgettable, 13/8 Markila, 4/1 Leamington Lad, 33/1 Secret Cavern.

DIOMED VERDICT: Unless Markila can produce something pretty decent on her chase debut, this looks booked for UNFORGETTABLE.

A 33/1 outsider here and 3 horses and 2 places I hope. Market important here, but these are chase debutants 1.23 the fav to place Richar Johnson has riden Unforgettable last twice, so why is he now on Markila ( could be that Unforgettable needs the 5lb claimer) - bit of insier info for Dickie here?Markila is 1.26 to place

We're going to get these tempting probability bets over the jumps this season, and provided none fall, then it offers a superb lucky dip - pick one of the 3 and hope he comes 1st or 2nd

530 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Quentin Collonges, 9/4 William´s Wishes, 9/2 Substitute, 7/1 Iron Steve, 14/1 Papradon, 100/1 Ten Hour Lunch.

DIOMED VERDICT: QUENTIN COLLONGES is the interesting one and, in receipt of 7lb from William's Wishes, should be hard to beat.

Another interesting race with apparent outsiders and 2 strong market leaders 1.23 to place

FOOT BALL
Northern Ireland under 17 v Malta u17 - 1.37 - Northern Ireland are not quite world beaters themselves!
Valencia v Slavia Prague - 1.26 - Villa back and fit and should be a significant gulf in class, but with these one offs there's not head to head form .(see Barca v Rubin!!) - 3 draws on the trot at home - from a sequencing perspective, at 1/5, there is an oppotunity for Valencia to end this sequence. If Valencia play as they did against Seville then they should have far too much for Slavia PRague who lost 2-0 away to Genoa, and I suspect Valencia are better than Genoa.
6pm Shaktar v Toulouse - 4/9 - always return to Shaktar as they take this competition very seriously
805 - Panathanaikos v Sturm Graz - 1/3 - should be another gulf in class here - Greek league v Austrian - Pana, typical of Greeks, are generally unspectacular scorers
805 v- Gala v Dinamo - 4/11 - at the moment I'm just listing the shorties and then hope to justify the odds later. - form line thru the Pana game Gala beat them 3-1 and they beat Dinamo 1-0
Fulham v Roma should be interesting and I would think Woy would want to keep it tight so I may pwefer under 2.5 goals to twade with .Fulham's only losses at home have been against Chelsea and Arsenal .Roma have scored in all games this season, but tended to draw away from home.
I have a feeling Celtic might be found out against Hamburg this evening. Scottish Premier LEague just does not have the competitiveness of the Bundesliga. 2nd in their league and not lost this season, they ca be full of goals when on form. Interestingly Hamburg have scored 7 goals this season in the 1st 15 minutes.A recent 0-0 with Motherwell is hardly a good starting point for Celtic - against the stronger Scottish teams, they have only drawn at home and Hamburg are quite easily far far better. Like Rangers who have been out of their depth, there could be goals tonight.
730 - Cyprus u 17 v Portugal u17 - 1.37 -away - should have too much?

SHORTLIST
Not taken at all by the horse racing today - there's so many maiden races and I'm left with 3 jumps races today,and all 3 of them are 2 places only.

255 LUDLOW is the only horse race of interest to me today simply because there looks to be one horse at 33/1 who can be ignored - if getting involved the hope is that this is dominated by Unforgettable and Markilla
Valencia v Slavia Prague - 1.25 is reasonable enough and there should be a gulf in class here - 0-0 against Barca at the weekend nothing to be ashamed of. 3 draws at home in the league is a sequence which could be ended today?
Shaktar v Toulouse - Toulouse not having the strongest of seasons and Shaktar really want to replicate last year's successes in this competition. Home advantage should be enough tonight - laying Toulouse is the same as a 1.12 (nearly 1.13) bet and this could be a way in. I don't know if I'm confident enough to back Shaktar on the nose. -should be goals in this game for sure 1.26 over 1.5 goals
I can't get the Celtic v Hamburg game out of my mind. Am I missing something or is Hamburg's 2.62 very inviting. A must win for the Bhoys but this is good opposition from a good league in good form. Let's face it, Celtic lost to Rapid Vienna for goodness sake! Over 1.5 goals is 1.33 and given Celtic must win, then this bet involves both teams. Hamburg have been solid and been scoring in this competition. I suspect it is sentimentality and home advantage that is keeping Celtic's price relatively short.Laying Celtic is a 1.47 bet, but they might easily raise their game ofr a one off so I would prefer a neutral bet where both teams are involved and that equals goals!
ONE A DAY
A very difficult day to nail a really solid bet, and all shortlisters have their appeal but also contain an element of risk. The 255 ludlow should be fought out between the front 2 -Unforgettable has had the recent run and Markila is coming off a long lay off. Also Unforgettable holds Leamington Lad on recent running. 5 lb claimer on board ( would have preferred Dickie Johnson onboard )
For me though today, I am taken with Valencia in the football ( to trade if they score first) - the reason is that they have a 3 game home draw sequence and have an opportunity to break that today against apparent weaker opposition.
At the same price is Shaktar v Toulouse over 1.5 goals at 1.26 and this is my one a day today ( cue the first 0-0 after 2 successive 4-1 wins for Shaktar and a 3-2 and 2-2 recent performances for Toulouse)

21/10

What a pity with Barcelona, but enhanced bettors could have salvaged something

Barcelona		1.12	220.00	Back	20-Oct-09 13:48	-220.00
Barcelona		1.61	200.00	Back	20-Oct-09 20:23	-200.00
Barcelona		1.28	200.00	Lay	20-Oct-09 20:53	200.00
Barcelona		1.32	236.67	Lay	20-Oct-09 20:56	236.67
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	-420.00
					Lay subtotal:	436.67
					Market subtotal:	16.67
					Commission @ 4.38%:	0.73
					Net Market Total:	15.94

1.12 was my one a day bet - all well and good.
Barcelona went as high as 1.61(they actually went a lot higher!). Now I couldn't resist that at 1-0 down. £200 is my normal stake for enhanced bets.
Barcelona equalised so I traded out at 1.28 and 1.32 for a grand profit of £15.94. The profit was small because of the initial bet at 1.12 but the profit made with the price drop from 1.61 to 1.28 absorbed the loss. Effectively there were 2 bets here.
1) enhanced bet back at 1.61 and lay off at 1.28 (for a profit)
2) back at 1.12 and lay off at 1.32 ( for a loss)
The flexibility in running betting gives us means we need not be static and just keep the bet if things aren't going our way!
You can see I traded out as soon , or just after, the equaliser.
Still it will go down as a losing one a day bet . And it was frustrating because Tatatiano was the only other shortlister and he came in.

Horse Racing > Extr 20th Oct : To Be Placed

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Tataniano		1.11	200.00	Back	20-Oct-09 15:04	22.00
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	22.00
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	22.00
					Commission @ 4.68%:	1.03
					Net Market Total:	20.97

Should have left the one a day there!!Simple 1.11 bet, and no need for greed!
Over 1.5 goals in the Barca game came in too.
Another enhanced bet yesterday - Inter Milan
Remember the Mourinho record at home!

Inter		2.24	200.00	Back	20-Oct-09 19:52	-200.00
Inter		1.78	251.69	Lay	20-Oct-09 20:20	251.69

I backed Inter while losing and laid inter when they equalised as the odds reduced from 2.24 to 1.78. This also shows the importance of getting out of trading bets at the earliest opportunity because the game ended 2-2 so if you had left all profits on Inter you would have lost the bet.

I will start with the football
12pm Faroe Islands u17 v Lithuania u17 - will this mirror the senior squad's 1-0, erm, demolition of Lithuania when they last played in the Faroes? 1.46 only for the away side tells you this is going to be a tricky fixture for the away side
530pm CSKA v Man utd - 2.3 Man Utd. An early start for the Champions League and a price on Man Utd which tells you they will settle for a draw or a 1-0. A game I would probably look at from a goals perspective ( unders the option perhaps) - 1.1 under 4.5 goals and 1.29 under 3.5 goals would be my preferred option here - concern here is the league for - Man Utd have scored 2 in their last 6 games and CSKA have a solid home record and beat Besiktas 2-1 last time - no Shrek for United tonight is a massive blow and Vidic might be doubtful
Chelsea v Athl Madrid - 1.39 home. Isn't it amazing how any teams have poor league results prior to Champions League matches ( Lyon, Liverpool, Chelsea, Athletico Madrid(3-0 loss))
Chelsea look very short to me here but Madrid are in bad form. Forlan was rested at the weekend and may appear tonight. Aguero is class. Chelsea did not play badly at Villa but conceded 2 goals in set plays, and may be vulnerable in that regard.
At home this season they have been superb and I would want to see Drogba playing before I get involved
Juve v Maccaibi Haifa - unbeaten at home in 15 Champions League games, Juve came from behind at the weekend to equalise and it was amazing the tenacity they showed once a goal down ( great for enhanced betting but why do these players suddenly stop the intensity once the equaliser has arrived? )Juve make up half the national side and should take care of this lot surely? If backing Juve I would trade after they score first (hopefully) - priced up at 1/5 by Ladbrokes so they have given this to Juve already! Maccaibi have lost against Bordeaux and Bayern. This looks a good opportunity if the Juve I saw at the weekend when a goal down play with such conviction
porto 1.25 v Apoel - Apoel have performed well but there is a form line - Athletico were heavy odds on shots and only drew. Porto beat Athletico at home 2-0, so could give some optimism to Porto backers. - losing only 1-0 away to Chelsea should perhaps signal that this is no given despite Ladrokes 1/5. If taken by the 1/5 I would trade after Porto (hopefully) make the breakthrough
Real MAdrid v AC Milan 1.45 - Ac Milan's comeback at the weekend was down to the ref pretty much with a penalty equalising matters. They have been dire this season. No Ronaldo this time which is a big loss to goal backers but Real did ok at the weekend. AC just can't seem to score consistently but the question with Real is Consistency full stop. No horse face or Ronaldo a big blow from an attacking standout, but Raul , now in his early 60's (he's been around for years it seems) has been scoring and remains a big threat on the big stage.
This could be a game where the OAPs at AC Milan raise their game as a one off so they cannot really be readily dismissed in one off matches. I remain unconvinced by Leonardo as head coach - I mean what credentials does he have apart from being a teenage mutant ninja turtle? A 1-0 home loss to Zurich should have seen Leonardo back in his shell but you just can't tell which Milan will turn up.1.21 over 1.5 goals is huge for a Madrid game and also involves both sides so we have them both working for us. One mistake I made yesterday was to automatically look at the Barca odds and nothing else. If I had done my research I would have seen ,recently, a 1-0 and 0-0 in recent league games. Well no such problem for Real - 4 goals at the weekend and without Ronaldo means they can still score.
Reliance I suspect will be on having faith in Real to do the scoring this evening despite AC's 2-1 win at the weekend. But it only takes one goal for the over 1.5 goal odds to reduce dramatically.

440 Exeter yesterday saw another 8 runner jumps race so 3rd and 5th fav - I'm a legend 2nd at 7/1 and Charming Oscar 5th 11/2 -not quite the 14/1 winner of 2 days ago

200 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Rasmy, 7/1 First In The Queue, Tayacoba, 8/1 Liberty Square, Yabtree, 10/1 Paydaar, 12/1 Specialising, 14/1 Moonbalej, 25/1 Calypso Star, Green Energy, 33/1 Breakheart, First Post, 66/1 Petite Mambo, 100/1 Expensive Legacy, Khazara, New York Lights.

DIOMED VERDICT: An ordinary-looking maiden which can go to RASMY who made an encouraging debut at Newbury and will be suited by this step up in trip.

Another price gapper and another horse who has only had one run and is short priced fav in a back end of season maiden. Hardly an enticing bet 1.48 to place

210 SOUthwell
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Burgundy Ice, 4/1 Life´s Challenge, 6/1 Mcconnell, 9/1 Silent Hero, 10/1 Sunnyside Tom, 12/1 Swiss Art, 14/1 Jack Cool, 16/1 Angel Rock, Keys Of Cyprus, Ultimate, 20/1 Betteras Bertie, Xpres Maite, 25/1 Electric Warrior, 33/1 Hilbre Court.

DIOMED VERDICT: MCCONNELL makes plenty of appeal returned to this track.

Simply mentioned because Godolphin are in good for and Dettori is up on Burgundy Ice 1.61 to place

230 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Youm Jamil, 7/2 Database, Fine Sight, 9/2 Spa´s Dancer, 10/1 Istidlaal, 14/1 Jazz Age, 16/1 Temple Fair, 25/1 Whistleinthewind, 33/1 Trovare, 50/1 Annelko, Madam Ruby, Zagarock, 100/1 Laid Bare, Liebelei, Steely Bird, 500/1 Set In Ice.

DIOMED VERDICT: Much the stronger division and YOUM JAMIL can improve past Fine Sight, Spa's Dancer and Database.

Another Godolphin maiden runner in Database now 6/4 fav 1.37 to place

235 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Flying Cross, 7/4 Akinndi, 8/1 Start The Party, 10/1 Butler, Rocket Man, 14/1 Maverick Man, 16/1 Falcon Flight, Foolish Comment, 20/1 Quest For Gold, Rain Forest, 25/1 Brazilian Beauty, 33/1 Hot Sand, Top Spin, 50/1 Cherry Creek, Killdunne, 66/1 Antonius Park, 100/1 Feis Ceoil, Leahness,

A race dominated by O'Brien/Murtagh and Oxx/Kinane 1.26 and 1.44 to place the front 2

300 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Excellent Thought, 9/2 Memorandum, Robens Rock, 13/2 Clifton Encore, 8/1 Dimaire, 12/1 Dusty Spirit, Youcanalwaysdream, 14/1 Be Grateful, 20/1 Little Weed, 50/1 Grace Jicaro, 66/1 Belle Park.

DIOMED VERDICT: EXCELLENT THOUGHT has progressed steadily in three runs and shown more than enough to suggest she has an ordinary maiden in her. Fav has the form in the book here for this maiden 1.17 to place and confident in the place market 350 WORCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Pride Of Dulcote, 3/1 Captain Americo, 6/1 Any Currency, DIOMED VERDICT: PRIDE OF DULCOTE could go a long way this season and it will be disappointing should he fail to make a winning start over fences. 3 runners now and 2 places only and a 1/ shot for the Nicholls/Walsh yard, and a gentle reminder in Ballydub's race that there is always the risk of a fall. But if Ruby does what he did on Tatatiano yesterday then this should be a breeze for the all conquering jumps yard Chasing debutant and not run since April 2009 ( like Ballydub yesterday - yikes!) 1.12 to not get beaten by 1 horse in a 3 horse race!! of course we have to assume the horse will not fall! 520 WORCESTER BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Duke Of Lucca, 3/1 Cockney Prince, 6/1 Slabsy, 7/1 Cherry Star, 10/1 Alpha Way, 14/1 Ackertac, 16/1 Dingat, 20/1 Cresswell Bubbles, 25/1 Cresswell Crusader, Under A Spell, 33/1 Cap Benat, Seven Tors, Silver Token. DIOMED VERDICT: DUKE OF LUCCA is held in some regard by Philip Hobbs and a big run is expected first time out. Always interesting to note the rides of JP Magnier, son of the multi millionaire horse breeder. This is an expensive horse Cockney Prince, but it is also a bumper so market useful, 1.46 to place 720 Kempton BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Count Of Tuscany, 5/2 Holden Eagle, 4/1 Storming Sioux, 6/1 Bowsers Beau, 8/1 Cayman Sky, 33/1 Felicia, Miss Blueandblack, Set Em Up Mo, 50/1 Desert Fairy, Reel Man. DIOMED VERDICT: COUNT OF TUSCANY ran his best race to date at Goodwood last time and may be up to winning a weak maiden. Only 5 horses under 33/1 should be where the placed horses come from in this maiden, but we also have some all weather debutants, and the transition can cause problems as amply demonstrated by Demonstrable the other day. 1.26 to place SHORTLIST A day full of maidens and, again, debutants in one form or another. 350 WORCESTER - this is the probability bet of the day, a 1/3 shot at 1.12 to not fall or get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race. Has Ruby on board. The spectre of obstacles is always at the back of my mind and as you saw with Barca and Ballydub, just because they're short priced does not give them some divine power to be expected to produce the goods and win with ease. 300 BATH - I am taken by the confidence already in the market for Excellent thought. Another 2 year old so these are still learning Football wise it's a tricky night. Chelsea look too short. The only shorties I am interested in would be Juve and that would be with trading in mind. Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 in the MAdrid game surely has a chance of coming in. Man utd's injuries push them out to 11/10 to win. A for line through Wolfsburg - CSKA lost 3-1 to Wolfs and Man Utd beat Wolfs 2-1 ONE A DAY Must be the 350 Worcester for me. I am already on at 1.12 incase the odds reduce near the off. We cannot legislate for falls alas over the jumps, but hopefully Ruby can nurse PRide of Dulcote around on his chasing debut after a lay off since April 2009 As this is the next bet after a loser, it is perhaps not ideal to have a bet over the jumps but I am prepared to go for it. Others may want to stay out until a more solid bet which does not require hoping the horse doesn't fall. I called the football pretty well apart from the obvious Barca blunder - Debrecen were out of their depth, Lyon were a dismissively high price at Liverpool, Stuttgart and Sevilla served up over 2.5 goals. So football is an option today. Interestingly all bar the Arsenal match yesterday were over 2.5 goals

20/10

Place only betting vindicated yesterday as Baily Storm at 1/4 to win could only manage 2nd, but,hey, that's what we wanted - to finish in the first 2.
Great day for my each way idea although it wasn't over jumps, it was in a bumper.The 520 Plumpton had 8 runners and 3 places. I chose the 3rd and 5th live market favourites each way, and pro pell won at 14/1!. All it takes is a couple of the market leaders to run under par.
Particle - well I couldn't resist.

Particle		1.75	100.00	Back	19-Oct-09 16:52	75.26
Particle		1.17	149.79	Lay	19-Oct-09 16:54	-25.47
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	75.26
					Lay subtotal:	-25.47
					Market subtotal:	49.79
					Commission @ 4.7%:	2.34
					Net Market Total:	47.45

Why did I get out at 1.17? Well Particle refused at the last fence last time and I would be curing to high heaven if I'd thrown away a £47 profit on him refusing or falling at the last fence again - and he very nearly did fall at the last!
Nantes - I was expecting a home win, so 2-0 down inside 11 minutes means what? Yes, enhanced bets ahoy! Nantes eventually gained parity in the 62nd minute allowing for a nice enhanced bet trade.
Fulham won with a goal in either half. I was so near getting the 0-0 half time up, as first goal was on the cusp of half time. Hull did not manage to score but over 1.5 goals came in and the lay of Hull came in.
That's the great thing about doing a blog - I know which races and football matches to look at in time order each day and decide my betting decisions on spec.

230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Baby Dottie, 5/2 Pan American, 7/2 Gifted Apakay, 5/1 Sunarise, 16/1 Tuscan Gold, 25/1 Antoella, 50/1 Classical Piece, Lady Christie, Show Willing,

DIOMED VERDICT: PAN AMERICAN pulled clear of the third when narrowly going down at Warwick last time and he can go one better here.

Only 4 under 20/1 but again these are 2 year olds and this is a maiden - top 4 between 1.42 and 1.6 in place market then a jump to 2.8 next best.

240 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rebel Du Maquis, 9/2 Adeus Ayrton, 9/1 Strategic Approach, Tayarat, 11/1 Kauto The Roc, Know Your Place, Robo, 14/1 Holden Caulfield, Superius, 20/1 Over The Hill, Parazar, 28/1 Kilshannig,

33/1 Bankers Bonus, Cricket Boy, Zaif, 50/1 Cardinal James, Lord Raspberry, 66/1 Shadow Wood.

DIOMED VERDICT: REBEL DU MAQUIS was runner-up in three starts in France and looks the type that Paul Nicholls will place to advantage in novice hurdles. Adeus Ayrton is among others to consider.

We're going to see this a lot this season. Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls Rebel du Maquis is a huge price gapper in the live market at 10/11 - - - - 8/1 1.29 to place Horse has only run in soft and heavy - it's good at Exeter - a possible weakness?

310 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Tataniano, 11/2 Award Winner, 8/1 Manmoon, 16/1 Hereweareagain, 40/1 Like A Duke.

DIOMED VERDICT: Paul Nicholls won this race in 2004 and 2006 and has another smart chasing prospect in TATANIANO, who quickly progressed to a rating of 147 over hurdles.

Nicholls/Walsh again here on a horse now 1/5 -all the horse needs to do is stay on his feet and complete and hope to gain 1st or 2nd place.One horse at 33/1 can hopefully be ignored 1.11 - a typical price for heavy odds on shots over jumps in small fields ( the 3rd such raced like this so far)

410 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Ballydub, 5/1 Kilvergan Boy, 9/1 Hunters Ploy, 16/1 Plane Painter.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hunters Ploy and Kilvergan Boy probably have some potential now they are sent chasing but BALLYDUB, who is rated 145 over hurdles, should be very difficult to beat barring any accidents.

Let the market do the work for you then justify the odds. Another chase debutant like Tatatiano. Not been out since 12th March 2009 so we have to factor this in. Still, 2 places and only 2 horses to beat to place. And Diomed reminds us of the obstacles we face - " barring any accidents" 1.17 is quite big for Ballydub, probably because of the lay off and the fact this is a chasing debutant

FOOTBALL
Portugeuse under 17 v Georgia under 17 1.30 - again faith in the market here - I just don't know what this young crop are like - can't be as hopeless as the senior squad
Barcelona v Rubin Kazan 1.13 - should be a demolition job. I watched Rubin Kazan at 1.11 on Betfair video at the weekend and at those odds you expect dominance. Far from it. Must be Barca surely?
Debrecen v Fiorentina - 1.48 away side. Debrecen would seem to be out for their depth in this competition and are being found out.
Inter v Dinamo 1.46 - Inter scored 5 (or 6?) at the weekend away from home - a perfect start to the midweek Champions league game.
Liverpool v Lyon 1.9 - Lyon lost at the weekend when odds on at home ( one eye on this perhaps?) -5 for Lyon is a little dismissive. Liverpool tonight are likely to do as they did in the Debrecen game - puff and pant - if no Gerrard or Torres surely 1.9 offers reasonable scope for laying?
745 - Stuttgart v Sevilla - from 2 leagues where goals usually dominate domestic league games. Either this will see goals or fizzle out! Sevilla in good form at present
745 - AZ v Arsenal - 1.55 away - Arsenal have goals goals goals in them but the spectre of their traditional poor displays away in Europe hang over them. AZ Alkmaar usually score bucket loads at home but the Dutch league lacks any quality when compared to the Premiership
SHORTLIST
310 EXETER - Tataniano is battered into 1/5 as I write so 1.11 to place is a good price - not run since April 20099 ( and we will see this a lot early jumps season) Ruby onboard and he's superb and he's riding for the best jumps stable around - a lethal combination
Barcelona v Rubin Kazan - 1.13 - surely this falls into the one a day category as it would be a shock if Barca did not win at home against a Rubin Kazan team who have had trouble disposing of teams in their domestic leagues when priced heavily odds on -odds I suppose can be enhanced with half time bet on Barca
Team news important here - we want to see the big guns out in force, Messi, Henry, Ibramovich. At the weekend, Pedro and another were played at Valencia so the big boys should be fresh.
ONE A DAY
Must be Barca for me - rubbish odds but they deliver with consistency 1.12 win only, 1.15 over 1.5 goals, 1.44 over 2.5 goals, 1.42 half time ( has me salivating that price!!) Betfair have a handicap market up - giving Rubin a 2.5 goal start, and also have the correct score 2 market up which signals goals.
It's unexciting but 1.12 match odds is the safest bet, but 1.42 is a great price for Barca to score in the first half to no reply. 1.44 over 2.5 goals is tradeable. The opposition is not the best and have lost recently 2-1 at home when they were priced 1.15 to win that match
So, safe one a day is 1.12 Barca but if feeling adventurous there's plenty of scope for enhanced bets.
As to the horses, well Tatatiano should dispose of these rivals and it looks as if some big hitters have been backing the horse - 1/5 over jumps is only for those with steel plated underpants. I will be monitoring these races in running and hoping to get involved that way but it must be Barca this evening as the one a day

19/10

Demonstrative demonstrated the tightrope that is debutants - i n this case a debutant on the all weather and unplaced despite being heavily backed.
The choice Encompassing placed 2nd so job done
250 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Baily Storm, 9/2 Dean´s Grange, 6/1 Nur Tau, 10/1 Search For Gold, 50/1 Jessica.

DIOMED VERDICT: BAILY STORM looked decent on his debut for this yard at Stratford and can follow up.

now 2/7 in places. Only 2 places ,2 horses at 25/1 or bigger should reduce this to fighting for 2 places, as long as all remain upright 1.13 to place is great odds for a 1/3 shot in the win market but relates the fact this is a 2 place race and any mistakes could prove costly- a hard to beat selection - he stays on his feet, jumps well and should win easily

340 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hot Prospect, 4/1 Frozen Power, Party Doctor, 13/2 Gallic Star, 8/1 Namecheck, 10/1 San Cassiano, 12/1 Black Snowflake, 16/1 Art Excellence, 28/1 Tominator, 33/1 Astonishment, Top Spin.

DIOMED VERDICT: HOT PROSPECT has created a highly favourable impression in maiden company - the form of which has plenty of substance - and represents a trainer who is 7-13 with juveniles at Pontefract in recent seasons.

Not something you see very often - a listed race on a Monday. All conquering Godolphin have Frozen power with Hot Prospect 4/6 in the live market under Fallon 1.21 to place - catapulted from class 4 maiden company into listed class - must be a hot prospect!

450 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Chapel Flowers, 5/2 Particle, 4/1 Russellstown Boy, 8/1 Pipers Legend, 20/1 Ask Oscar, Drombeg Pride, 25/1 Bid Art, Mortar.

DIOMED VERDICT: If top of the ground is the key to RUSSELLSTOWN BOY then expect an improved performance here.

1st and 3rd are non runners here leaving the door wide open for Particle. poor horse was knackered when he refused at the last at Ffos Las.Was an original 8 runner race - hope for 3 places on Betfair. Will Particle be a willing participant today? 3 places and 6 runners make this a 50/50 race bt they'll all be wondering " will he or won't he?" as far as Particle is concerned.Illiquid market at present and 1.3 on offer to back the place and 1.45 to lay means back price may rise nearer the off. Looks a tight old market, all horses are " red" in the betting site indicating support for all.
I would have thought with 1st and 3rd market leaders out, Particle would be a lot shorter

520 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 River Beauty, 4/1 Sure Fire, 5/1 Romantic Lead, 14/1 Pro Pell, 16/1 Lord Landen, 25/1 Bell Hill Lad, Jordans Day, 33/1 Mrs Onc.

DIOMED VERDICT: Sure Fire is interesting but the most likely winner is RIVER BEAUTY.

Encapsulates the jumps at the moment. Coming off the back of a long lay off since April 2008 and only form has been in bumpers and not over obstacles.
3 horses are 40/1 or bigger and hopefully can be dismissed leaving 5 runners and 3 places Lord Landen is a potential gamble here into 9/1 and this fits into the each way system I was talking about for jumps. 1.2 to place exudes confidence in a horse off since April 08 and not jumped in anger.
3rd and 5th favourite backed each way in the live market - Romantic Lead and Pro Pell -be interesting to see if there are any fallers and these 2 can then get a look in

FOOTBALL
Nantes v Metz - 1.85 home - with Le Havre losing at home on Friday, it would be a disappointment if Nantes did not find the adequate motivation to exploit the loss of likely league title rival.
100% home record for Nantes and Metz have lost 3 and drawn one away from home. AS you will read in the next newsletter, I like to look at teams which are closely matched on ability. Le Havre at home beat Metz 2-0 and this scoreline is something to consider in tonight's Nantes home game

Fulham v Hull 1.69 - Phil Brown - the headset clown - takes his fake sun tan and extra supply of headsets to Fulham tonight on the back of poor away form. Interestingly though, Hull have scored in every away match.Fulham have been the oh-so-nearly boys in their last 3, losing narrowly twice and drawing 2-2.
At home, they have lost against 2 of the big 4, so this skews the home form somewhat. Expectation is for the win tonight, but Hull have shown they can score away from home so perhaps aa venture towards the over 1.5 goals market, or a note of alert for enhanced bettors should Hull score first.
5 of Fulham's goals have come in the 2nd half this season so if you fancied Fulham initially, perhaps prepare for a 0-0 at half time.
SHORTLIST
250 PLUMPTON - 1.13 about Baily storm to place looks like a gift. 4/9 in the betting forecast and now 3/10 and 2/7 in places, he faces 2 clear outsiders and 2 main rivals who are likely to be te ones vying for places. 2 miles 5 is a bit of a distance but ably supported by Richard Johnson in the saddle.
The only things that scupper this bet are bad jumping, or falling. Always the risk we take and will continue to take this jumps season
450 PLUMPTON - an intriguing puzzle. Particle has the form in the book but his refusal last time out has left punters all of a dither. 1.33 to place in a 50/50 race - 6 runners and 3 places could look big at around 5pm.
Laying Hull today at 6.8 is the equivalent of a 1.16 bet. If you were using £100 stakes, then £100 becomes your fixed liability . Has a great chance of coming off and if Fulham score first then we can get our stake back and spread profits.
Metz are available to lay at 5.7 for an equivalent 1.20 bet and this is interesting too, given the match is in running.
ONE A DAY
Baily storm for me. Risky because it's a 2 mile 5 furlong jumps race so we have another opponent - the obstacles. 2 clear outsiders should leave 3 fighting for 2 places. A clear round and Baily storm will be difficult to keep out of the frame.
This jumps season, one or 2 of these will fall, or blunder , but hopefully not today
If you are not taken by the jumps and place backing so short over a long distance, then Hull look layable this evening for a 1.16 bet which is tradeable if Fulham score first

18/10

Picture this didn't run which was a pity, but Ajax scored 4 so over 2.5 goals came in at 1.4 which was welcoming.
Enhanced bets? Well St Johnstone scored first against Rangers, and that was it really. All of the major sides scored first.
I did back Everton at odds of 85 (for £3) in the 80 something minute at 1-0 down, and they equalised. That £3 stake was greened into a £26 profit, as Everton's odds plummetted to 10 to lay.
Nice bit of speculation and a low downside but a great upside!

210 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Demonstrative, 7/2 Primo De Vida, 6/1 Consult, 14/1 Tres Amigos, 20/1 Let Them Eat Cake, The Ducking Stool, 33/1 Red Valerian Two, 100/1 Miss Isle Control, Wedding Dream.

DIOMED VERDICT: A weak maiden that can go the way of DEMONSTRATIVE as long as he handles this different surface.

All weather debutant so caution required, but a Mark Johnston horse and it's good to see them favourites.1.13 to place annd fancied i the market - the niggle is the all weather and whether the horse will hadle the surface. Other strong market leaders in maidens haven't ( and remember they're still young horses)

220 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Alazan, 4/1 Mohanad, 9/2 Strong Storm, 5/1 Ashes Summer, 6/1 Some Time Good, 33/1 Law And Order, 66/1 Coka.

DIOMED VERDICT: ALAZAN can defy a penalty in another relatively modest contest, with jumps newcomer Ashes Summer potentially the more interesting of his rivals.

A previous one a dayer if I remember right, well backed today at 2/5 in places. Dare we risk it again with only 2 places on offer? 1.19 to place

225 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Encompassing, 4/1 Rock Medley, 5/1 Green Art, 6/1 Cool Marble, 8/1 Luck Or Design, 10/1 Iron Major, 12/1 Kinglachy, 16/1 The Lock Master, 20/1 An Saighdiur, Captain James, Legitimate Fraud, Nidian, Xtraxtra, 33/1 Del Mar, 50/1 Psalmson.

Aiden O'Brien, fresh from a 33/1 1st and 20/1 2nd in the same race at Newmarket yesterday, has Encompassing here, and Ballydoyle juveniles normally improve for the run 1.19 to place - 2nd last time out under Jamie Heffernan - stable number one on board today so the expectation with such a big price gap i the live market ( 4/6 - - - -5/1) is for a good run and hopefully a place

245 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Imperial Cascade, 5/1 Soverign, 7/1 Brodies Dubrovnik, 8/1 Sunwake, 12/1 Always Brave, Wee Marty, Western Winner, 14/1 Campbonnais, Mon Champion, 16/1 Jack Travers, 20/1 Moilleadoir, The Cockney Squire, 25/1 Marceau, Rugby Dunne De Biz, Soldier Of Mercy, 33/1 Beech View, Harry The Dancer, Horseguard, Rose´s Emma, 50/1 Calluso, Good Point, Malumbla,

Price gapper and Barry Geraghty on board 1.34 to place - a maiden hurdle in Ireland requires a lot of faith in the short prices being an accurate reflection of chances as it is generally a good idea to oppose short prices in maiden hurdles


300 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 There´s No Panic, 6/1 Consulate, 13/2 Blacktoft, 8/1 Dinarius, 10/1 Horseshoe Reef, 12/1 Lady De La Vega, 20/1 Mister Matt, 33/1 Dawn Till Dusk, 50/1 Flash Of Fire, 66/1 Birthday Star, Silver Surprise.

DIOMED VERDICT: THERE'S NO PANIC should be able to make a successful hurdling debut in this company.

The Nicholls bandwagon hits Fontwell, and There's no panic is fancied under Christian Williams - Ruby must be in Ireland 1.19 to place and there largely by reputation of powerful stable, but generally this is a stable with the horses to justify the prices - only 5 under 33/1 should make life easier for the fav to place, but as is the theme today, another debutant of sorts

435 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/1 Armaramak, 8/1 Dashing Ruby, Duers, Montana Slim, Paddy Curry, Thousand Stars, 10/1 Corrick Bridge, Der Spieler, Horner Woods, Street Legal, 12/1 Baily Light, Urban Gale, 14/1 Ross Accord, Vital Plot, 16/1 Mansony, Mill House Girl, 20/1 Euro Leader.

Quite a move for Thousand Stars under Walsh and Mullins - now 2/1 fav 1.47 to place - originally the market was 7/1 the field indicating a very competitive race, so any play here is reliant on the Walsh/Mullins combination

530 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Skysurfers, 8/1 Peachey Moment, Towy Boy, 10/1 Catchpenny, 12/1 Abu Derby, 14/1 Positivity, 20/1 Very Distinguished, 25/1 Scotch And Soda, 33/1 Dark Echoes, Dolly No Hair, Elizabeth´s Quest, Meydan Style, 66/1 Elevate Bobbob, Petidium.

DIOMED VERDICT: SKYSURFERS has been found an ideal opportunity on his debut and can continue his stable's good run of form.

Huge price gapper given it is a debutant in a maiden, but I suppose because it is a Godolphin horse would explain such confidence 1.23 to place and guess what? -another debutant. THe Godolphi debutants have been excellent this season. No Dettori (he must be at Longchamp) but Ted Durcan an able replacement. The only information we have to make an informed decision is the connections as the horse has no form


FOOTBALL
FC LInth v Luzern - 1.08 Luzern - Swiss Cup so just going by the odds
Yverdon v Young Boys - 1.4 . Usually reliable, the Young Boys - another Swiss Cup game
Shaktar v Khartapy - 1.15 - short priced again in the Ukrainian league and I am aware they cannot keep being backed at such short prices, BUT can we justify the price today? - well they have scored 15 in 4 games at home. They are well known as UEFA Cup Champions and a useful outfit when seen in European Competition.
Only a few games into the season so no real strong form lines - not in running.
Belenenses V Oriental - 1.27 - Portugeuse Cup game anad the odds were accurate yesterday. Should be a gulf in class if home team takes it seriously
Koge v FC Copenhagen - 1.27 away side - near top v near bottom. Koge have found life difficult, Copenhagen beat them 7-1 in previous encounter.
This could signify a walloping again or Koge will park the bus and frustrate.
Copenhagen coming off the back of 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 games, and away from home have won 3 drawn 1 and lost one
This game is in running so could be a good option
Sporting Lisbon v Panafiel - 1.15 - Portugeuse Cup and Porto and BEnfica went through with ease yesterday justifying the prices with goals, - more of the same here?
SHORTLIST
A day punctuated by debutants in one way or another ( either on the surface, or over the jumps, or even to racing itself) This makes the bets even more speculative than usual
225 NAAS - Enccompassing is the first horse of interest representing the all conquering Ballydoyle stable with stable number one on board
Shaktar 1.15 v Khartapy looks reasonable enough for the UEFA Cup Champions at home. An illiquid market
Koge v FC Copenhagen - 1.27 for the away side against a home team who look out of their depth and struggling. 1.19 for over 1.5 goals will involve both teams as a neutral bet and one early goal will make this very tradeable
ONE A DAY
the 225 Naas sees Encompassing take on 14 rivals and it is the live market price gap 4/6 - - - 6/1 which appeals to me. Ballydoyle horses generally improve for the firrst run ( and that first run was a good 2nd) 1.19 is perfectly reasonable and there are no ground concerns
I hate backing maidens but hope this stable can justify the odds, after an exception day yesterday for them

17/10

I wish i had Harry Findlay type betting funds as Inler won with ease -a waiting game from connections for the newcomer paid off
Barizan won and 1.13 was a welcome race off price for a 1/4 shot to place in what was a 3 horse race really.

145 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mcmurrough, 4/1 Skylancer, 7/1 Ergo, Inspector Clouseau, 10/1 Darfour, Jewelled Dagger, Kosta Brava, 20/1 Tutto Bene, 33/1 Alpine Warrior, 66/1 Waldo Winchester, 100/1 Noble Vic, Piccolo Pride.

DIOMED VERDICT: With McMurrough disappointing last time an each-way chance is taken with DARFOUR, who ran well on his hurdle debut at Perth last time in a race that has worked out very well.

A difficult ride last time if memory serves, but in this big field, the market still likes him - 4/5 in places 1.2 to place

225 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Chabal, 4/1 Steinbeck, 7/1 Xtension, 8/1 Silver Grecian, 10/1 High Twelve, 14/1 Dick Turpin, 16/1 Buzzword, 20/1 Awesome Act, 25/1 Fencing Master, 33/1 Maroon Machine, 66/1 Beethoven, Lord High Admiral, Manhattan Fox, Timely Jazz, 100/1 Free Judgement.

DIOMED VERDICT: Jim Bolger is going for a four-timer in this race with Chabal but the bare form of his National Stakes second does not make a compelling case and preference is for STEINBECK who was touted as something special when making a winning debut back in May.

If Diomed is right, then an O'Brien horse touted as something special must be good - Murtagh on board, and the usual 2 O'Brien pace setters beethoven , fencing master and Lord High Admiral - 2.28 to place

240 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Picture This, 11/4 Billie Magern, 3/1 Baddam, 13/2 Kilcrea Asla, 10/1 Risk, 14/1 Lorum Leader, 16/1 Benbane Head, 33/1 Tiermore, 66/1 Ready Or Not.

DIOMED VERDICT: This will be much tougher for Baddam now that he has BILLIE MAGERN and Picture This in opposition.

Nicholls and Walsh are likely to dominate this winer and Picture this takes favouratism against a competitive field made slightly weaker by Kilcrea Castle as a non runner 1.35 to place

300 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Fame And Glory, 11/2 Sariska, 6/1 Mawatheeq, 7/1 Never On Sunday, 12/1 Doctor Fremantle, 14/1 Twice Over, 16/1 Alpine Rose, Pipedreamer, 33/1 Campanologist, Virtual, 66/1 Barshiba, Forgotten Voice, 100/1 City Leader, 500/1 Set Sail.

DIOMED VERDICT: Fame And Glory is the clear form pick but has to bounce back from a one-paced show in the Arc. If he fails to do so, the rapidly improving MAWATHEEQ can take advantage.

Fame and glory is price gapper here and we must remember the Arc had some of the world's best horses in a 20 runner competitive race so maybe he can be forgiven that run? .7 to place- an air of pessimism in the market?

305 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Velvet Flicker, 9/2 Big Bad Billy Bob, 6/1 Boragh Jamal, 7/1 Jumbo Steps, 33/1 Bartragh Island, Classy Lady, Emly Wizard, 50/1 Ruby Suesday.

Like the 830 Dundalk yesterday, we have a clear favourite in an 8 runner race with 4 horses 33/1 or bigger 1.11 to place

415 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tabassum, 5/1 Distinctive, 7/1 Champagnelifestyle, 8/1 Dubawi Heights, 12/1 Silver Rock, 14/1 Atasari, Gibraltar Blue, 20/1 Astrophysical Jet, Music Show, 25/1 Bint Doyen, 66/1 Paleo.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard not to be taken with the way TABASSUM won her Group 3 over C&D a fortnight ago and she is preferred to Distinctive, the other Group winner in the field.

Price gapper here, course and distance winner, recent run, but on a hatrick and winning sequences end sometime, but today? 1.19 to place

450 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Crystal Capella, 9/2 Ashalanda, 5/1 High Heeled, 6/1 Baila Me, 8/1 Arwaah, 10/1 Ave, 14/1 Charity Belle, 33/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, Snoqualmie Girl, 50/1 Saphira´s
AnoFire,

DIOMED VERDICT: The return to this trip will suit CRYSTAL CAPELLA who was far from disgracd when suffering her first defeat over middle distances in the Prix de l'Opera 13 days ago on her first start since pipping Dar Re Mi at York back in May. Another price gapper in a quality field. Has won 3 races by a short head and neck suggesting the horse is at the business end but may not be win only material, but a good place bet? 1.44 to place 720 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Inpursuitoffreedom, 5/1 Angelena Ballerina, 6/1 One Cool Poppy, 8/1 Dubai Phantom, 10/1 Chichina, 20/1 Ajara Boy, Noverre Over There, 33/1 Brooklands Bay, 66/1 Crystal Bridge. DIOMED VERDICT: INPURSUITOFFREEDOM ran really well at Newmarket on her debut and can take full advantage of this lesser company. Price gapper here, but at time of writing Angelina is at 3/1 signifying support bit too early FOOTBALL Readers of the eletter will already have an idea of those games I will be focussing on. 1230 - St Johnstone v rangers 1.48 Rangers - we saw with Shelbourne yesterday that it's all about trying to justify the price before we back teams - thank God I didn't get involved with Shelbourne -they managed a 0-0, 4th draw in 5 matches. The recent 0-0's for Rangers ( 2 away from home) were ended with a 2-1 Old Firm win. BUT let's look at the 2 away games - does this signfiy frustrating taactics from home teams to try to nick a no score draw? And will St Johnstone do it today? St Johnstone have drawn 2 and lost one 3-2 at home this season. Against Old Firm, beaten by Celtic 5-2 at Celtic, so we can get a line in to what Rangers, in an ideal world, should be able to do. I am still worried about Rangers 2 0-0 aways which may lead to preference for laying St Johnstone? 1pm HJK Helsinki v Jaro - 1.38 -not too convincing home form to justify my support 2pm - Botiv v CSKA Sofia - 1.22 - a good form line could be the Lokomotiv Plovdiv result - Botiv lost 3-0 to them, CSKA beat them 5-0 away from home. Odds look about right here for away win Arsenal v Birmingham - 1.17 - the last time the Arse were this price at home they won easily enough - have scored 14 goals in 3 games at home.For Brum, it's 7 games settled by a single goal and Man Utd ,the only top 4 side they have played ,won 1-0. Could be an afternoon where the Birmingham bus gets parked? Expectation here is attack versus defence, but who will out? Celtic v Motherwell 1.27 - Motherwell drew 0-0 with Rangers recently so we can guage their strength that way BUT this was going through Rangers sticky 0-0 patch. Celtic ,bar St Johnstone at home, seem to only just do enough winning 2-1 at home 3pm - Man Utd v Bolton - wholly unconvincing at home and requiring a never ending clock on a couple of occasions, -Bolton are on a promising 4 game run -winning 2 away from home and drawing 2 at home. Against top 4 side Liverpool, they lost 2-3. Tricky one to weight up, you would expect a United win,-Bolton have scored in all of their last 5 games so may augur well for an over 1.5 goal bet? 330 -Rubin v Khimki 1.11 - can Rubin be trusted after losing 1-2 at home when ultra short priced last time out. Opponents have lost 10 away from home. Previous to the 1-2, Rubin scored bucket loads at home and a return to that could be the tonic. Might be another goal bet game? 5pm - Diynamo Kiev v Obolon - 5 wins at home and have the head to head advantage here 545 - Ajax v Willem 11 - 1.16 - 3rd from top v 2nd from bottom - only 2 games have been under 2.5 goals for Ajax and they have gone 5 games on the trot over 2.5 goals 6pm - Lyon v Sochaux - 1.35 - excellent run of form from Lyon with only 2 draws amongst the wins, and Sochaux usually lose against top 4 sides 615 - Monsanto v Benfica - 1.07 away from home - Portuguses cup game and looks like goals here 7pm Real Madrid v Vallodollid- beware no Ronaldo and I think he is such a vital player for a punter to have on their side.Vollodollid have not played any of the big boys yet, and have lost 3, drawn 2 and won 1 815 - Porto v Sertananse - 1.06 - again Cup game and goals expected

SHORTLIST
In a very competitive day we can hope horses such as fame and glory give of their best, but the market suggest otherwise.
225 NEWMARKET - ultra competitive but Steinbeck is 2.28 to place - has the pacesetter but again we have the niggle of a big field of quality horses
240 CHELTENHAM - Picture this is included simply because it's Walsh/Nicholls - 3 are 33/1 or bigger - 4th fav is non runner - picture this is backed into 7/4 in places
305 CORK - Velvet flicker is 1.11 to place ,but this is only 5 furlongs and any tardiness will be punished. Still, has the profile of an "ideal " race - 8 runners, odds on fav, plenty of "perceived" outsiders
FOOTBALL
2pm- Botiv v CSKA Sofia -1.22 - I am taken by the form line re Plovdiv
As I write, St Johnstone have taken the lead against Rangers so enhanced bets ahoy!
Arsenal v Birmingham - 1.17 - scored bucket loads in all home games and only fallen foul of the Manchester sides. Brum likely to be stubborn but breakthrough should be made eventually?
Ajax v Willem - 1.11 over 1.5 goals has a great chance of success. Playing at home, the hope is Ajax score first ,then the match odds market will appeal from a trading perspective.
Lyon - 1.35 at home to Sochaux should prevail - team news very important as I would want to see Lisandro Lopez playing

ONE A DAY
Well, at present I am involved in the St Johnstone v Rangers match, backing Rangers at 2.7 being 1-0 down after 5 minutes. Fingers crossed this prevails and my one a day will be in the bag.
Cheltenham's 240 has all the big boys out-1.35 for Picture this is a great price and I would trade in running given it's the jumps
Ajax 1.4 over 2.5 goals looks a great price too, and is tradeable as he's in running.
As I say, I am involved in Rangers v St Johnstone enhanced bet. IF this comes off, that's my one a day bet in the bag

16/10

A quiet day yesterday but Horseradish was backed into 4/11 but his place price was only 2 points shorter than the 1.11 I quoted when he was 4/7. I followed the money and Horse radish won under Fallon . The Godolphin 2 year olds were imperious yesterday as they have been all season.
130 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Inler, 4/1 San Jemeniano, 9/2 Chaussini, 6/1 Kerchak, 7/1 Progress, 20/1 En Fuego, Maashooq, 25/1 House Point, 33/1 Taeping, 100/1 Chorus Boy, Finch Flyer.

DIOMED VERDICT: There looks sure to be more to come from CHAUSSINI and she is preferred to main form rivals San Jemeniano and Kerchak.

Now Inler looks to be a good old gamble. The owner is one Harry " Cor Blimey" Findlay who ,shall we say, has been prone to putting a shilling or 2 down on his horses.
Inler was highlighted by me a week or so ago as a massive market mover, and was withdrawn - perhaps the ground was a factor in hampering the gamble? He was withdrawn again a few days ago, and now takes his chance, installed at 7/4 favourite today. Inler is a debutant but the previous trainer/owner antics for the horse suggests that they expect a win, and we cannot ignore any potential Harry Findlay gambles - 1.41 to place if you trust a 2 year old debutant
235 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Emirates Dream, 5/2 Kalypso King, 10/1 Rodrigo De Torres, 12/1 Champagne Style, Get A Grip, 33/1 Invincible Prince.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks most likely to concern EMIRATES DREAM and Kalypso King, with preference for the solid French Group-race efforts of the Godolphin colt.

A 2 horse race here if the market is to be believed, and again we have a Godolphin horse as fav, but not a maiden -this is a conditions event. While they are in such good form, and whenever Mr Dettori takes the saddle, it could be a good move to continue following Godolphin when fancied - 2 places of course allow for no mistakes 1.26 to place

255 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Snap Tie, 3/1 Rippling Ring, 5/1 Pigeon Island, 6/1 Safari Journey, 100/1 Musical Weld.

DIOMED VERDICT: SNAP TIE, one of the best prospects around for novice chases at this trip, should collect if his jumping stands the test.

Again, a novice event and horses of potential taking on a new code. Snap Tie is very well thought of, but there are some familiar names in opposition. We saw with Brett Vale the other day that although they may be good horses in another code, if they cannot jump as fluently, they'll have trouble 1.26 to place

430 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lady Hestia, 5/1 Bollin Judith, 6/1 Ifatfirst, 8/1 Bergonzi, Dramatic Solo, 9/1 General Ting, 10/1 Abstract Folly, 14/1 Summercove, 25/1 Drop The Hammer, 33/1 Royal Flynn.

DIOMED VERDICT: LADY HESTIA has progressed well as a staying handicapper this year and is probably worth following.

Price gapper in a class 5 handicap (ideal is class 6 0-60 handicap) 1.41 to place

440 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Barizan, 5/1 Forty Thirty, 6/1 Riptide, 12/1 Royal Max.

DIOMED VERDICT: If running his race then BARIZAN should continue on his merry way.

It's heartening to see one AP McCoy on an odds on shot. On a 4 timer and can't continue winning but Diomed notes he " laughed at them" at Market Rasen 1.11 to place which signifies this is 2 places and over hurdles

550 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 The Jigsaw Man, 100/30 Phidippides, 5/1 Crystal Rock, Reland, 10/1 Akiem, William Hogarth, 16/1 Zen Factor, 25/1 Points Of View, 33/1 Boo, 200/1 Wannarock.

DIOMED VERDICT: THE JIGSAW MAN looked so good in bumpers and is fancied to make a winning debut over hurdles.

"looked good in bumpers" - yes but he did not have any hurdles to jump over in bumpers! Hurdle debut today, and McCoy onboard. Interesting to see Barry Geraghty fly over from Ireland for Henderson's horse Crystal Rock. 1.25 to place

800 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Lingapour, 3/1 Carraiglawn, 4/1 September Morn, 6/1 Dalkan, 8/1 Battleoftrafalgar, 10/1 Mutamaleq, 12/1 Righteous Man, 14/1 Bright Horizon, Mantaray Island, 16/1 Emrani, 20/1 Days Ahead, 25/1 Fait Accompli, His Way, Prince Of Fashion.

September Morn now 6/4 favourite (but do note race off time) O'brien/Murtagh horse expected to run well - illiquid market

830 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Man Of Iron, 13/8 Augustusthestrong, 11/2 Cochlear, 13/2 Funatfuntasia, 7/1 Andre Mon Ami, 50/1 King´s Bastion, 66/1 Dangerous Bill, 100/1 Hot Look.

These are the types of races I look for. 8 runners means 3 places. 2 horses are 100/1 and one horse is 50/1 which should reduce the competitive field to 5 runners (and 3 to place) A race which is dominated by the 2 O'Brien horses and decisions should be made nearer to 830 (common sense really) to decide which to place back -illiquid market

FOOTBALL
Looking through the coupon I am 18 minutes too late for Spain under 17 v Faroe Islands under 17 - this is like shooting fish in a barrel I would suspect, even though none of the players can go for a pint yet!
Le Havre 1.84 v Laval. As I have mentioned before, I specifically follow Le Havre and Nantes on occasion and I would suspect Le HAvre won't lose at home. Laval are 5.5 to lay which is nice and short for a football lay-this is in play too so is interesting
Ghana under 20 v Brazil under 20 - this is the final and is likely to be a cagey, nervy affair
Shelbourne v Athlone 1.23 - Irish football makes my Sunday LEague side look like Champions League winners. To be approached with extreme caution as it is so unpredictable and largely poor ,unreliable, fare.Shelbourne's bet devil rating is 1876 and Athlone's is 469. Huge gulf there could assuage backers.
Goals look most likely with Shelbourne being involved in some recent score draws and Athlone letting in 9 in their last 2 games.
Alas this is not in running and there is only the over 2.5 goals market available. Ready preference is always to trade for me. I hate being helpless if, say, it's 2-0 after 30 minutes, and I can trade out, BUT the final score was 2-0 and the over 2.5 goals bet was scuppered!!
SHORTLIST

I will inore the previous 2 the place races and move on to the obvious one -the 440 Cheltenham and Barizan under McCoy and heavily fancied to win. 1.11 is perfectly reasonably and 3 wins on the trot shows jumping capability. This is a 4 horse race with one horse at 25/1 leaving 3 runners and 2 places.
I do have a slight niggle regarding the fact Barizan is a consistent winner ( because winning runs will end, unless your name is Sea the Stars) but this has the look of a Business As Usual-esque probability race and 1.11 is perfectly reasonable for me.
830 DUNDALK - a classic template of the kind of race I look for. 8 runners - 3 places - 3 at 50/1 or bigger. I cannot comment on the race just yet as there is the small matter of 8 hours between now and race time, but this race will definitely interest me this evening and is one I will look into .
Shelbourne v Athlone 1.23 - it's all about building up the evidence to justify the odds and backing at such odds. I am really drawn by the ratings at www.betdevil.com which puts Shelbourne at 1876 and Athlone at 469. My concern is that Shelbourne have been involved in 3 score draws in their last 4 games In fact, at LAdbrokes 1-1 is 9/1, 2-2 is 25/1 and 3-3 is 66/1. I might have £2 just for a laugh this evening.
The fact this is not in running is very offputting indeed, because I would expect goals this evening.
Against sides similarly rated to Athlone, Shelbourne have won 4-2, 2-0 and 2-0 ( Athlone rated 469, these teams rated 364, 376, 466)
Shelbourne were this price when playing Wexford youths recently and lost at home 2-1
Athlone have recently conceded 9 goal without scoring in their last 2 games and away from home lost their last 4 by big margins.
Over 2.5 goals is around 1.75 but again, not in running
ONE A DAY
For simplicity sake, Barizan for me - odds are crap, it's over jumps, but it looks a 3 horse race and 2 places and probability wise looks a good enough bet. BEing over jumps, I'll try to trade out.
The 830 Dundalk has more of a classic feel about it for place backers like me and is worth waiting for this evening and looks better than BArizan but at time of writing I cannot put anything forward because a lot can happen between now and 830pm

15/10

Job done yesterday whichever way you looked at it. Fareej and Business as usual took the places at Lingfield, the 1/3 shot won with ease ( 1.15 a huge price for place betting), and in the footy, Ukraine and Slovenia both scored and won at half time.
Fancy an enhanced bet? Well I didn't fancy Italy yesterday because it was a pointless match, but while watching the Ireland match, the commentator mentioned that Italy ,under Lippi, had not lost a World Cup qualifier at home EVER!
So, at 1-0 down to Cyprus, I backed Italy at 1.98.
Cue the goal BUT to Cyprus. Italy were now backable at 15! I was swearing like a trooper.
Cue the comeback. To be honest I had resigned myself to defeat with this enhanced bet, and was cursing the fact I had got involved with a team who really wouldn't be busting a gut as regards the points, BUT surely they'd want to keep this home record going? Imagine losing the unbeaten record to Cyprus! The players would be finding horses' heads in the beds!
Quite unbelievably, Gilardino scored a hatrick, the last coming in the 91st minute and I was rewarded for my enhanced bet.
Got away with that!!
If anyone backed Italy 2-0 down at 15, then you have my congratulations!

210 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Saboteur, 9/2 Readymade, 13/2 Idealism, 8/1 Home Advantage, Mawaddah, 10/1 Countess Comet, 12/1 Sadler´s Mark, Shelfah, 33/1 Flag Of Glory, Khazara, 40/1 Inshaallah, Star Of Kalani, 100/1 A P Ling, Dovedon Diva, Master Of Song, Set To Rock, The Love Guru.

DIOMED VERDICT: Some interesting newcomers but SABOTEUR has been far from disgraced in sales races at Newmarket the last twice and looks the one to beat returned to maiden company. maximum respect for Godolphin at the moment and Sabateur 1.27 to place but a 17 runner maiden can be fraught with danger 310 NOTTINGHAM BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Troopingthecolour, 5/1 Simulate, 11/2 Panto Princess, 6/1 Country Road, 9/1 Black Eagle, Starkat, 14/1 Two Together, 16/1 Time Book, 20/1 Kashubian Quest, 33/1 Uncle Keef, 66/1 Bella Fighetta, Little Billie, 100/1 Dovedon Earl, Silvester, Stardust Memories, Swirl Tango. DIOMED VERDICT: TROOPINGTHECOLOUR is the clear form pick but none have had much racing, several have shown significant ability and Simulate is an eyecatching newcomer. Why the move for Godolphin's Black eagle into 6/4 in places? Big field maiden with many interesting newcomers though 1.29 to place 410 NOTTINGHAM BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Horseradish, 9/2 Gojeri, 11/2 Silk Street, 13/2 Pinnacle Lad, 8/1 Diman Waters, 11/1 Zelos Spirit, 14/1 Jack Luey, 25/1 Kalahari Desert, 40/1 Avec Moi, 50/1 Atherton, 66/1 Ochilview Warrior. DIOMED VERDICT: HORSERADISH was turned over at very short odds on Fibresand last time but it's almost certainly worth excusing him given the change of surface. fallon takes over from Hayley " head" Turner on Horseradish - 2nd twice and now odds on price gapper 1.11 to place - they think this one will place -4/7------7/1 in the live market -another maiden race and 1.11 is very short in such a race ( glass half empty, but glass half full - must be well thought of placing today 415 PUNCHESTOWN BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sizing Europe, 13/8 Harchibald, 5/1 Bobs Pride, 12/1 Sarteano, 20/1 Coolpotts, 25/1 Tipolino, 66/1 Gundagai. A 4 horse race if the prices are accurate and Sizing Europe is odds on now.1.31 to place - a lot of the horses are coming back from a layoff ( unique to the start of the jumps season) 420 LUDLOW BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Brett Vale, 13/2 Nicky Nutjob, 8/1 Leulahleulahlay, Strong Storm, 12/1 Dark Oasis, 14/1 Bedarra Boy, Protiva, 33/1 Heaven Or Hell, 40/1 Mr Deal, Weet In Nerja, 50/1 Princess Soraya, 66/1 Cheetah Beetah, Dicksons Delight, 100/1 Wild Lyph. DIOMED VERDICT: BRETT VALE should win if bringing most of his Flat ability to his hurdling debut. A one a day bet when on the flat, but a hurdling debutant and price gapper. Bit of a gamble as we are taking his ability to jump on trust 1.45 to place 450 LUDLOW BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 The Package, 3/1 Matuhi, 5/1 Oscar Royal, 20/1 Pharaon De Touzaine, 25/1 Cove Mountain, 33/1 Brimley, Ralahine. DIOMED VERDICT: THE PACKAGE should outclass his rivals if anywhere near his best. This is what makes October difficult - jumps horses coming back from a layoff. The Package is a possible " hard to beat " selection-only 2 places though so any mistakes will be punished 1.26 to place FOOTBALL Romania under 19's v Armenia 1.15 to win - the younger they get the more precarious the bet!! SHORTLIST There are simply no Business as usual 3 runner 2 places races today, and we are faced largely with maiden races ( and big field in those races to boot) along with jumps races where fitness is taken on trust. 410 NOTTINGHAM - Horseradish I suppose is the first horse of interest today but there is no margin for error with such a short place only price. Huge price gapper, Fallon on board today and 2 2nd places augur well. Was a one a day selection last time out when finishing 2nd. ONE A DAY That's it for me today, after the plethora of opportunities yesterday - doubtless a few of these will place today but nothing is as rock solid as ,say, Slovenia v San Marino winning at half time, or the 3 horse race and 2 places of yesterday. The market confidence in Horseradish cannot be ignored ,neither can the huge price gap in the live market 4/7 - - - 7/1. Officially a no bet day for me today on the one a days ( the weekend is nearly upon us and the European football returns so there are plenty of future opportunities) but I will follow the markets live in running and see if I can pick one good bet to place

14/10

As my close show biz pal, Lenny Kravitz said to me while watching the Turkey under 21 v Armenia game in the 94th minute " it ain't over til it's over" and never a truer word was uttered as Turkey, in the 95th minute, scored the winner to make it 1-0 .
So much for going 3-0 up away from home!
hafawa placed (well won) and Botany won. Brazil's under 20's only managed 1 goal which brought the over 1.5 price down to 1.55 but still resulted in a loss as the goal was not scored early enough. Still, this is ONE A DAY and the ONE A DAY was in the bag - that's what counts
Onto today and it's minnows v giants today internationally, and there are numerous matches which can be deemed, from one side at least, to be called a dead rubber - nothing to play for except pride and ticket revenue. Doesn't matter if they win/lose or draw.
So do be careful. Ivory coast needed a point - they got a point -they could have won. Brazil v Bolivia - Brazil nothing to play for - lose
England v Ukraine - nothing to play for - lose
and so on
A quick look through the footy to start with
1pm Russia under 21 v Moldova under 21 - 1.12 -as I said previously, Moldova, Andorra, Leichtenstein, Faroe Islands (away from home), Luxembourg, can all be opposed with a degree of confidence as long as the games are meaningful
430pm - Andorra v ukraine - 1.01 - Ukraine are unbackable here and should win with ease - as ever goals are the way to go as is halftime/fulltime to enhance bets - 1.23 half time/full time - 1.08 over 1.5 goals and 1.36 over 2.5 goals - 5 goals last time at home for the Ukrainians - 2-0 at half time - is there any reason to expect less away from home?Ukraine have a game in hand and need the 3 points to get 2nd place ( hence the reason they had to beat England as they had this game coming up) So a must win for Ukraine ( the motivation we need)
7pmGreece v Luxembourg - 1.04 - The Greeks showed against Lithuania recently that they could score more than one goal!(they got 5) so the hope is for a replication of that this evening ( Greeks usually woefully inadequate infront of goal - Greece need to win and have scored 15 goals in 7 games against Luxembourg - about 2 a game, but their 5 scored last time out is encouraging ( or a sign that Lithuania can't defend) Luxembourg got spanked 7-0 by Israel and 3-0 by the Swiss
7pm - Romania v Faroe Islands - 1.11 - beware the Faroes under Brian Kerr at home but away they pose little threat although may hold on to 0-0 for a frustrating period - 1.14 over 1.5 goals - I am always wary that it is BRian Kerr at the helm. 1.09 now for the straight win
7pm- Turkey v Armenia (take 2!!) - 1.29 - motivation a factor for both camps. As with all of these matches, is there any reason to bust a gut for a win? This is why I have left Italy, Germany, Republic of Ireland alone - Turkey cannot qualify so be very wary here - they gave up against Belgium as soon as they knew they could not go to the World Cup so there is zero motivation for a pointless match
730pm - San Marino v SLovenia - 1.01 - again thoughts go automatically to goals markets and halftime/fulltime markets - 1.19 halftime/fulltime and 1.25 over 2.5 goals -surely San Marino are one of the weakest sides out there - Slovenia look solid and 5-0 head to heads already is good.
745pm - Portugal v Malta - 1.01 - as above and perhaps a look at Ronny as any time goalscorer if he is playing- with Sweden breathing down their necks, Portugal must win tonight and are priced to do so - 1.18 for halftime/fulltime and 1.28 over 2.5 goals - concern with the absence of Ronaldo as he can be assured of adding a couple of goals against such a weak side.
8pm - England v Belarus - 1.2 - great example of a match where England don't need a thing, apart from, I suppose, pleasing the home support. A neutral bet perhaps at over 1.5 goals would involve both sides. 1.18 over 1.5 goals includes both sides and when priced at 1.2 England are expected to score at least. There is strength in depth in the forward line and it could be little and large this evening with Crouch and Defoe? Remember this is a dead rubber for England
11pm - Brazil v Venuzuela - 1.23 - home match and there were team changes against Bolivia - nothing to play for with Brazil, and again the hope for goals and a neutral market which involves both sides - 1.17 for over 1.5 goals looks decent enough even if there are some changes to the Braail line up
www.fifa.com is a great website to read about teams' motivations. Do they have anything to play for? The site also shows head to heads, previous scores and latest news

200 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Fareej, 7/4 Business As Usual, 5/2 Magician´s Cape, 12/1 Thrust Control.

DIOMED VERDICT: A tricky novice event in which FAREEJ gets the nod over Business As Usual and Magician's Cape.

3 runners now and still 2 places - great probability race - 1.28 and 1.26 the front 2 shows you this really is a 3 horse race, but you can take a chance on one finishing in the first 2

420 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Our Monty, 8/1 Appeal Denied, Golden Moon, 12/1 A Little Different, Aladdins Cave, Dafarabad, 14/1 Deise Dan, Something Grand, Son Of Mary, Trikirk, 20/1 Dallaglio, Keep Me, Mr Duffy, Theglenbeighdancer, 25/1 Pretty Happy, Secretofshambhala, Seepeeoh, The Gripper, Turklord, 33/1 Bokkie Park, Merry Cowboy, Persian Buck, Watermelon, 50/1 Unico, 66/1 Choir Leader,

Price gapper now 4/6 - - - -12/1 in the live market for Walsh/Mullins combo 1.23 to place

420 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Malakai, 4/1 Carmela Maria, 5/1 Railway Park, 10/1 New Shuil, 33/1 English Archer.

DIOMED VERDICT: It will be disappointing if MAKAKAI isn't able to see of these rivals.

2 horses at 16/1 and 33/1 and a fav battered into 1/3. Hurdle event though - 1.15 to place looks big for a 1/3 shot to win - 2 places and hurdles the reason I suppose

430 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mickmacmagoole, 7/2 Rathrockscourt, 5/1 Star Tenor, 8/1 Captain Becket, 10/1 Last Pioneer, 12/1 Anglican, 14/1 Hareem, Hot Zone, 33/1 Almanshood, Earlestown Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: MICKMACMAGOOLE won a shade cosily at Hexham and probably has less on his plate this afternoon.

Fav now odds on under McCoy and has had a recent run 1.18 to place

535 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 If Ever, 7/4 Quite The Man, 8/1 Red Not Blue, 10/1 Chain Of Command, L´Eldorado, 14/1 Tegan Lee, 33/1 Driving Seat.

DIOMED VERDICT: IF EVER shaped well enough on her Ffos Las introduction to suggest she can win at this level.

Chain of command now 15/8 - a potential gamble in a gambling type of race ( bumper) - 1.76 to place - if you believe this is a gamble, then the price is huge - only 2 places

SHORTLIST
200 LINGFIELD - the best probability race of the day. Business as Usual is mentioned in the Racing Post Gallops report and Fareej mentioned in the Trading Centre.
Prices are very interesting given it's a 3 horse race and 2 places but all seem to be equally capable
420 PUNCHESTOWN - Our Monty represents the all conquering Walsh/Mullins combination and if backed, must go well. Big field hurdle event a negative but the weather is beautiful today so no ground concerns
420 WETHERBY - faith in the market here with Makadai 1/3 now in the win market and 1.15 in the place market
Andorra v Ukraine - halftime at around 1.23 could be the way to go here in a MUST WIN match for Ukraine to take them into the playoffs
San Marino v Slovenia - 1.19 half time and 1.25 over 2.5 goals looks good prices for a quite solid looking away side
ONE A DAY
A particularly interesting day today I think, -the horses look especially strong today. We have a 3 horse race and 2 to place at juicy prices. It is simply a matter of close your eyes, pick one out and hope he finishes in the first 2.
For me though, standout seems to be San MArino v Slovenia. We have the motivated Slovenians - a meaningful game here - they've beaten both Poland and Slovakia ,sscoring 5 goals and have beaten San Marino 5-0 already
The problem with this game is that it is not in running and the markets are not very liquid with ,I suppose, in running games taking precedence for punters' money
1.19 half time is a great price I think, but I would always prefer in running trading where football is concerned.
200 LING - 1.24 on the fav to place is a great price. I would go with the market favourite at 2pm and at time of writing it's business as usual but opponents are Dettori and Ryan Moore!


For me, I will stick with Slovenia scoring in the 1st half to no prely, but do read the blog as there are multiple one a day opportunities. Loads of opportunities to profit and next bet would be Ukraine at 1.2 to be leading at half time

13/10

One bet which was not apparent at time of writing was Man Utd reserves v Oldham reserves. 1.22 generally available and 2-0 before you could blink. The match was not on the Betfair coupon when I wrote which was a shame.
We are getting to that part of the horse racing season which is very difficult, with the end of the flat and the beginning of the jumps ( and, of course, horses who have not run for a while)

Even a strong candidate like Baltimore Clipper went unplaced. Midas Touch was backed into 1/3 and won cosily

Well, as I write, I backed Romania u19 v Faroes over 2.5 goals at 1.45 ( silly price at 1-0 up) and it's 2-0 and I have greened out for a profit. Nice!

210 LEIC

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Mufarrh, 100/30 Official Style, 4/1 Poor Prince, 6/1 State Fair, 8/1 Stefanki, 20/1 Al Khawarezmi, Hypnotized, 25/1 Breakheart, Penrod Ballantyne, Sixties Rock, 33/1 Donair, Painswick, 50/1 Hidden Glory, Trecase, 100/1 Captain Clint, Imjin River, 200/1 Appeal To Reason, Polebrook.

DIOMED VERDICT: The promising OFFICIAL STYLE did not get the breaks at Newbury and he may be able to improve past Mufarrh.

Only 4 under 20/1 but look at the size of this maiden - plenty of potential debutant surprises await 1.4 te front 2

220 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Pytheas, 3/1 Burnett, Sir Pitt, 6/1 Danceintothelight, 10/1 Molon Labe, 14/1 Palawi, 20/1 Dandino, Fusenam, 33/1 Edward Longshanks, 66/1 Hotgrove Boy, Tantsor, Timetowynagain, 100/1 Acol.

DIOMED VERDICT: SIR PITT takes the eye on pedigree and is taken to beat fellow Derby entry Burnett on his racecourse debut.

I've place backed Pytheas twice now , and he has obliged twice. Still a maiden, Mark Johnston would like to see some winning form soon enough. Backed into 7/4 at present 1.33 to place

310 LEICE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Hafawa, 11/4 Cumulus Nimbus, 7/2 Dawnbreak, 33/1 Premium Charge, 100/1 Bravo Blue, Rosie´s Magic.

DIOMED VERDICT: The step up to 7f will suit HAFAWA and she should beat Cumulus Nimbus and Dawnbreak.

Only 3 under 33/1 here and looks like 3 horses vying for 2 places, but we saw the problem with 2 place races, the most obvious candidate can cause a shock.The market favours the Johnston horse Hafawa 1.21 to place

440 LEic
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Botanist, 4/1 Mataaleb, 9/2 Treasure Town, 13/2 Capital Attraction, 7/1 Isdaar, 10/1 Argaum, 20/1 Protaras, 25/1 Highland Knight, 33/1 Green Lightning, Mme De Stael, The Blue Dog, 66/1 Azaday, Yes Chef, 100/1 Daryainur.

DIOMED VERDICT: BOTANIST has done more than enough to suggest he can win a maiden. Price gapper for Moore/Stoute in this 14 runner maiden. Botanist has had 2 runs and was a nose 2nd last time out. As you know by now, it's a matter of faith for a 2 year old to reproduce the good form again - market has him at odds on here 1.24 to place FOOTBALL Euro Championship qualifiers Turkey u21 v Armenia u21 - 1.15 to win -ust going by the odds here 1/9 shots at home rarely lose Germany v Israel -1.45 Greece v Lithuania 1.25 Leichtenstein v Finland 1.25 to Finland Italy u21 v Bosnia u21 - 1.25 Brazilu20 v Costa Rica u20 - 1.32 SHORTLIST 310 Leicester first race of interest. I have ignired Pytheas although I think the horse will run well, 2 debutants so close in the market could be anything and push Pytheas out of the places Back to the 31, all being well, this is simply a 3 horse race with 2 places up for grabs. Obvious starting point is Hafawa at 1.20 , but a note of caution a la Aohna. It will be a 3 horse race but it doesn't mean Hafawa will place in the first 2! 440 LEICESTER - Botanist is 1.24 and confident in the place market - odds on in the win market. We saw with Baltimore Clipper that 3 2nd places did not guarantee another place. We must remember always these are 2 year olds. Has the right man onboard though and faith in Ryan Moore's ability to coax another good placed run. 6 one time outers are all open to perceived improvement, and 6 debutants could be anything all adding to the mix EURO CHAMPIONSHIP u21's - at least they're not freindlies Turkey v Armenia 1.15 - realistic appraisal of chances I would think Leichtenstein v Finland - 1.25 away from home. Finnish are no football superpowers but Leichtenstein, along with Andorra, Moldova, Luxembourg, Faroe Islands, must always be opposed. Brazil u20 v Costa Rica u20 - reputation puts the Brazil boys at a short price and 1.19 over 1.5 goals is in running and must have a chance of success ( name me 1 0-0 match featuring Brazil!) ONE A DAY I have already secured my one a day with a chance encounter with 1.45 over 2.5 goals when Romania under 21's were 1-0 up against Faroe Islands with only 35 minutes of the game gone. It is 2-0 and the price reduced to 1.13 so job done for me. So final choices 1) Turkey to beat Armenia 1.15 ( 5-2 already in Armenia augurs well for home clash) 2) Brazil under 20's v Costa Rica under 20'S 1.19 over 1.5 goals - has the advantage of being in running and we have both teams working for us. Negatives - under 20's can equal naivete 3) Hafawa in the 310 Leicester - 1.21 to place - looks a horse race 4) Leichtenstein v Finland - Finland beaten 2-1 by Poland. Poland beat Leichtenstein 5-0 so this is a form line. Finland 1.25 I would personally opt for Turkey as the strongest bet - they were 3-0 up away from home and now have home advantage

price gapper for Moore/Stoute

12/10

Aohna just pipped to 2nd place a great Frustration given Algeria won 3-1 and Notts County over 1.5 goals game in the first half, and Admin won very easily. Bass rock placed, Rayeni won,Jumbo rio won. That is the problem with 2 the place races and lesson learned.
I should have gone with Algeria ,for, as I said, none of the short odds international matches faltered over this weekend, which means the bookmakers have these games accurately priced up

Let's see what Monday unfolds

135 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Inside Track, 4/1 Lenkiewicz, 11/2 Flaming Miracle, 6/1 Donna Elvira, 7/1 Layla´s Boy, 8/1 Madame Roulin, 16/1 Ermyntrude, 20/1 Jasmeno, 25/1 River Landing, Strike A Deal, 50/1 Reve De Mardi, Roybuoy.

DIOMED VERDICT: The two to concentrate on may be LENKIEWICZ and Inside Track, with Donna Elvira an interesting newcomer.

Interesting move for Strike the deal at time of writing - if staying 16/1 he may be an option. Interestingly, I followed smoke and mirrors yesterday and it performed really well in both the UK and Ireland, and ,using the smoke and mirrors, in tandem with following betfair and the 16/1 system can help you make good profits to very small stakes - front 2 are 1.53 and 1.6 to place

210 SALIS
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Flouncing, 9/4 Baltimore Clipper, 7/1 Sundream, 8/1 Soul Station, 9/1 Sabatini, 16/1 Shoot The Pot, 20/1 Sharp And Chic, 25/1 Baltic Ben, 33/1 Wavertree Bounty, 40/1 Seeking Rose, 100/1 High On A Hill, Set To Go.

DIOMED VERDICT: FLOUNCING and Baltimore Clipper look to dominate calculations, with the Haggas-trained filly bringing the better chance of improvement after her one AW outing.

Always good to see maidens who have consistent form, and Baltimore clipper has 3 consecutive 2nds 1.26 to place

215 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Midas Touch, 3/1 Nebula Storm, 7/2 Encompassing, 8/1 Munaawer, 10/1 Legendary Lad, Royal And Ancient, 20/1 Cruise Master, Global Recovery, 25/1 All Star Affair, Arbiter, Luddenmore, Quarton, 33/1 Quixote´s Quest.

Midas touch for Murtagh/O'Brien should improve as Ballydoyle maidens tend to 1.15 to place

FOOTBALL

16:30

Atlantis FC vs FC Viikingit

8/1

9/2

2/9

Huge gap in betdevil ratings should make for an away win but I am no Finnish league expert

SHORTLIST
210 SALISBURY - Baltimore Clipper simply because he has 3 2nd places, but Flouncing is also fancied here-and this is another top heavy market where we would hope both place. Positives - 3 2nd places means consistency here for Baltimore clipper - remember it is always difficult to place maximum faith in 2 year olds repeating earlier promise, but 3 2nds is proof that Baltimore has.
Negatives - 7 runners are one time outers and thus open to improvement
215 CURRAGH - Midas touch has only had one run on good to firm, has a new jockey in Murtagh and is well supported to place/win today, but the ground is an unknown-3rd fav encompassing is a non runner making life a little easier. Nebula is a newcomer from the Oxx/Kinane camp.Positives - Ballydoyle horses improve after 1st run. Joseph O'Brien replaced by Jonny Murtagh
ONE A DAY - 2 maiden races are all I can find today and although both look good candidates to place, it is a no bet day for me with better opportunities coming up during the week. No doubt the live market will bring its candidates, and that is a real advantage for those who can follow the live betting.

11/10

Ivory Coast only drew ,as was their want, -they didn't need to win. I personally thought it was worth the risk at 1.47, and did warn that this was not a traditional -shock-if-they-lose one a day bet. There were plenty of alternatives yesterday, from Portugal, Israel, Mexico,France over 2.5 goals, and the 2 horses Noble Alan and Gullible gordon so I hope you took my suggestion and looked for alternatives yesterday.
Ireland v Italy - 2-2 final score but 1-1 up to the 87th minute made the under 3.5 goals very tradeable and I got out in 80 minutes for a small profit after which, in the 87th minute, all hell broke loose.
Enhanced bets? Thin on the ground yesterday with all of the big boys performing. Armenia equalised with Spain yesterday to allow a back of Spain at 1.65 -they scored the winner of course. Greece at 4/11 pre match went 2-1 down to Lithuania ,and ended up winning 5-2. All a matter of faith in the bookmaker's 4/11 being an accurate reflection of the 90 minute score.
If you expected an Italy draw after going 1-0 down and 2-1 down, then we had enhanced betting there.
Those who kept faith in Dayglow Madonna's Argentina would have seen 10 put up for Argentina after Peru scored an equaliser in the 90th minute. This was a must win for the Argies and it was inevitable that they would score a 93rd minute winner. It was a spectacular end to the game, as right from kick off after they went 2-1 up, the Peruvians hit the cross bar with an audacious shot from the half way line.
This is the epitomy of enhanced betting. Argentina MUST WIN, regardless of the time left, and even a small £5 bet at 10 would have little downside but big upside were the winnerto come.

FOOTBALL
Nigeria v Mozambique - 1.25 - like Ivory Coast yesterday we need to see if this is a game Nigeria need to win ( notice he games yesterday where teams did not need to win - England - Ivory Coast, Turkey (no chance of going to World Cup after results before their kick off with Belgium went against them) all did not win because they didn't need to win.)
Head to heads 0-0 with Mozambique, but with players such as Martins, and Mikel and John Utaka, surely this premier league class should ensure a breakthrough?
So there is definite motivation for Nigeria to win, and home advantage would be the key here
Tunisia v Kenya - 1.25 - Tunisia ideally need to win their last 2 matches to ensure they finish top of their group, so are motivated today. One of the more consistent teams in the Group, they play a Kenya side all but out of it with 1 win and 3 defeats. If Nigeria drop points at home, Tunisia are through a game early, but with both games kicking off at 5pm, there is no chance Tunisia will know how Nigeria are faring until half time
Notts COunty v Torquay - Not lost at home this term, drawing one and winning 4 with 3+ goals.
Torquay have found the step up to the League difficult having lost 7, won 2 and drawn 2.
Torquay have only failed to score away from home once which could allow for a neutral goals bet today.
Algeria v Rwanda -1.19 - 2 wins and a draw thus far and playing bottom side Rwanda. Need to win with Egypt breathing down their necks. Home advantage

210 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Aohna, 3/1 A Haon A Do, 7/2