Thursday 1 October 2009

1/10

FC Honka won 3-0 and again, if I had live chat, I would have gone for the 2 Frank Spencer horses as they were really heavily backed at the off ( not noticeable at time of writing) She's the boss was particularly impressive. But job done.
Very happy with football synopses, again Real backers had to wait and it is funny following the betfair forum Real Backers - all swearing and cursing why they backed them ( exactly the same with their games against Xerez and Tenerife, but 3-0 scoreline at the final whistle.
Enhanced bets? Man Utd a goal down at home in Europe must be backed to gain recompense and so they did( with a huge slice of luck)
Bordeaux 1.25 were available to back over evens for anyone with huge faith in them They eventually won 1-0
AC Milan were 1-0 down to Zurich - enhanced bet? Well I did not fancy them at all as I wrote yesterday and the key to enhanced bets is to look for teams you already fancy who go a goal down. Poor Milan are in a whole heap of trouble this season.
Also mentioned Brazil youth might have problems yesterday and 0-0 showed that. The reason for my thinking? 4/9 about Brazil is a big price relative to how they have been priced previously.
China beat Botwsana 4-1 but I missed that very nice bet alas.

210 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Morana, 5/2 Awesome Act, 10/1 Santa Margherita, 16/1 Christopher Wren, 20/1 Cunning Plan, 25/1 Atakora, 33/1 Whistleinthewind, 50/1 Mystic Millie, Sonny G.

DIOMED VERDICT: MORANA, very promising on debut, is preferred to more-exposed Awesome Act.

2 horse race? 1.08 Morana and 1.22 Awsome act

245 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Alhaque, 6/5 Sana Abel, 8/1 Slick Mover, 20/1 Double Exposure, 40/1 Miss Jodarah.

DIOMED VERDICT: ALHAQUE is awarded a tentative vote over Sana Abel

Alhaque is a horse I have followed previously, like Bagber yesterday and I like Dazzler - looks another 2 horse race but, like the previous race, is a maiden 1.14 to place and 2 places

435 SLIGO
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Majestic Concorde, 7/2 Rathmore Castle, 9/2 Line Ball, 6/1 Justpourit, 14/1 Aoife Costa, Bideford Legend, 20/1 Saddler´s Native, Spes Ultima, 25/1 Ashfield Present, Mcswynes Bay, 50/1 Catskill.

Interesting Ruby rides for Dermot Weld here. 1.28 to place

845 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Arte Viva, 9/2 Alice Alleyne, 11/2 Pictures, 9/1 Whirly Dancer, 11/1 Angelena Ballerina, 20/1 Athenian Garden, China Lily, 33/1 Vanilla Loan, 40/1 Motrice, 66/1 Ellen Vannin, 100/1 Denton Ryal, Scintillating.

DIOMED VERDICT: Irish 1,000 Guineas entrant ARTE VIVA shaped nicely when beaten by a useful prospect at Kempton and should be capable of going one better switched to maiden company.

Front 2 have come 2nd on last run and may dominate 1.32 and 1.37 to place the front 2 but early doors (like the 820 yesterday which came off) - need to look at this race much nearer the time


FOOTBALL
16:30 FC Lahti vs FC Jazz-j 1/10
Another Finnish Cup game
1.15 on Betfair - not quite the discrepancy of yesterday
17:45 Nigeria Youth vs Tahiti Youth 1/33
Tahiti have let in 16 in 2 games and not scored. The concern here is Nigeria keeps getting players sent off , and it cost them against Venezuela who they were 1/3 to beat ( and Venezuela beat Tahiti 8-0)
Look to goals here and a possible red card/ booking points bet? Nigeria have been woeful finishers ( must have been watching AC Milan?) and have not netted yet - concerns with their lack of discipline , so this is likely to be an edgy 1/33 shot - I have seen better!!
18:00 Shakhtar vs FK Partizan 1/4
Won the competition last year so the hope is home advantage seals the victory for one of the strongest teams in the Europa Cup 1.27 to win
20:05 Hamburg vs Hapoel Tel Aviv 1/4
Good at home Hamburg. Maccaibi Haifa played well against free scoring Bordeaux - can their Israeli compatriots snuff out Hamburg, another free scoring side 1.27 to win - on a high after beating Bayern Munich 1-0 at home last game ( only home game where they did not score 3 or more) -if getting the 1/4 , I would be concerned that Hamburg are not putting out their strongest team
20:05 Galatasaray vs Sturm Graz 2/7
Austria naturally an inferior league and Gala have scored well this season bar the 1-1 result last time out ( which ,if looking at form of opponents, was no surprise). Could be another 3 from Gala if playing the first team 1.26 to win
20:05 Roma vs CSKA Sofia 1/4
Been wholly unimpressed with Italians in European competition, and Roma have only scored 6 in 6 games and are priced equal to Real Madrid were last night - I know which 1/4 I'd prefer!! 1.36 to win - interesting that Ladbrokes price Roma at 1/4 and they're 1.36 on Betfair, but Laddies price Gala at 2/7 (bigger price than Roma)and they are SHORTER on Betfair(1.26)

SHORTLIST
Shaktar must be included in the shortlist as it would seem they take this seriously( a worry for potential backers of hamburg who should check strength of team before contemplating backing them)
Won this last year so incentivised to continue the run and at 1/4 ,expected to do so
Galatasary - 1.26 and popular with Betfairians .Scored well in the league when priced to win and hopefully can be trusted as long as they take this Europa league seriously
Nothing appeals from a horse racing perspective - again late season maidens and 2 places with top heavy markets . Alhaque for instance - beaten a total of 40 lengths in his 2 races prior to good looking 2nd latest - was that last run, then, an anomoly and a false dawn?
This is another day where doing it live for me is far better than nailing one down now and hoping. Like yesterday and the day before ( Horseradish) there was waves of cash just before the off for selected horses and they became potential place bets ( but when I write the blog I am unaware of the money coming for the horses )
ONE A DAY
At this stage, then, Shaktar look incentivised to win and at 1/4 and at home are expected to do so. In running so tradeable, but, as hinted at above, if I see a potential place only selection in the live environment I will take it .I will follow the races mentioned above and if I feel there is significant support, hope to get my one a day ( of course I cannot relate what horse, if any, will possibly be chosen)



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