Tuesday 27 October 2009

28/10 RESEND 2

Broadband problems mean I might not be able to finish this today

Enhanced bets ahoy! Panseraikos v Olympiakos - Oly original 1.46 favourites for this cup game went 2-0 down. This time I layed Panseraikos as their price was 1.30 for £25 to win me £80 on Oly and the draw.
Oly equalised. Panseraikos's price increases to 1.88 and I green out for a £25 profit.
Happy days and there was another 20 minutes of the match left!
I didn;t get involved in the enhanced bet at 1-0 as it was a Greek Cup game but 2-0 meant a price with low outlay and potential good returns.
Another enhanced bet? How about IFK Goteborg who went 2-0 down. I duly backed them at 2-0 down and 2-1 down and got out at 2-2 ( it ended 2-2 so any traders out there - get out early!)
I backed Real MAdrid at 1000 when 4-0 down but they didn't recover. If there is a 2nd leg here, stick that in your note book I think! Goals should arrive.
The over 1.5 goals bet would have saved this game as well ( it is pretty much the same odds as backing Real Madrid in the match odds market yet includes, by default, both teams and thus captured the amazing 4-0 scoreline to Real's opponents)
Pandorama won as expected and what a market at the off. 1.45 to back to win and 1.32 to back to place. Alas Muggins here backed him just after I'd written the blog at 1.17 thinking this horse would be all the rage but I also had a nibble at 1.32 as well - couldn't resist.
Racing Hero was a superb trade - drifted out to 3 before the off and flirted with 2.1 or thereabouts in running allowing for a nice in running back to lay trade

Lesson from yesterday - it would seem that Spanish games are 2 legged so do be careful as there may be an element of slackness in round one by the big boys ( I guess to get bums on seats for the home leg!)

13:30 Jablonec vs Zivanice 1/12
Czech Cup here and mentioned simply because of the odds -on betfair and there was a bit at 1.20 and higher - not in running
16:00 Hajduk Split vs Moslavina Kutina 1/8
Croatian cup here and again mentioned based on odds
18:00 Werder Bremen vs Kaiserslautern 4/11
Goal scorers by design, Werder are in the German Cup so can they be arsed or can't they be arsed ( a la Madrid?)
In running so of interest if the team news for Werder is strong
19:30 Z.Waregem vs KSK Ronse 1/8
Belgian Cup
19:30 Hoffenheim vs Koblenz 1/5
german Cup
19:35 Celtic vs Hearts 2/5
Old Firm usually dominate the Cup
19:45 Manchester City vs Scunthorpe 1/5
Strength in depth at City now should ensure a victory with even a 2nd string side and at home?
19:45 Chelsea vs Bolton 1/3
Importance of Cup for Chelsea will be seen in the team news
21:00 Cultural Leonesa vs Barcelona 9/1 4/1 2/9
Surely Cultural Leonesa cannot beat Barca, let alone beat them 4-0, regardless of the Barca side put out? I saw the 2nd string in a friendly against Man City, and though they lost 1-0, they hit the woodwork with monotonous regularity.
7 pm - AZ Alkmaar v Spakenburg - 1.11 on Betfair - should Spankenburg Spakenburg (yet again, if they show any remote interest in a cup game)
7pm - Twente v Capelle - again should be an easy win but need to see teams
Given the apparent fix with Real Madrid last night ( sponsored by a bookmaker -there you go!)
goals would be he bet in the Barca game - 1.19 over 1.5 goals looks acceptable

110 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Palio Square, 4/1 Pytheas, 5/1 Psychic Ability, 13/2 Mountain Quest, 12/1 Florentine Ruler, Grande Saggio, 16/1 Across The Sea, Dandino, Donair, Joe Rua, 20/1 Hail Bold Chief, Sansili, 50/1 Dubawi King, Inshaallah, Lord Wheathill,

DIOMED VERDICT: PALIO SQUARE sets a decent standard on form, should relish the step up to 1m and his experience could prove decisive.

Only 5 under 20/1 and it is hoped the race revolves around these - if so then Palio Square could have a good place chance but what of Pytheas? Hard to win with for Johnston but places with regularity

115 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Some Present, Evs Sweeps Hill, 33/1 False Economy, Prince Of Fire.

4 runners and 2 under 50/1 means a 50/50 race and barring falls should be easy pickings for place backers

130 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Infanta, 2/1 Tatiana Romanova, 9/4 Brink, 20/1 Rubicon Bay, 25/1 Charity Fair, 33/1 Dead Womans Pass.

DIOMED VERDICT: Infanta would not have to be any great shakes to make a winning debut but preference is for TATIANA ROMANOVA.

Only 3 under 20/1 but which of the 3 will not place? Godolphin debutant must be accounted for too given their form

320 PUNCH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Jered, 9/2 Lenabane, 8/1 Betabob, Meadows Thyne, 10/1 Adajal, Darby´s Turn, 14/1 Askmeroe, 16/1 Crusher Run, Etcetera Etcetera, Up N Under, 20/1 All The Cousins, Rebel Royal, The Thirsty Bricky, 25/1 Know The Rules, Major Finnegan, 50/1 Brackets, Major Melody.

the 3rd beginners chase and short priced fav and the other 2 have booted home

350 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Tafaool, 5/1 Aspro Mavro, Big Bay, 10/1 Lastroseofsummer, 14/1 Altimatum, 20/1 Montego Breeze, 33/1 Big Whitfield, 50/1 Kabougg, 66/1 Lily Wood, 100/1 Bawdsey Bank, Floods Of Tears, Quadrifolio.

DIOMED VERDICT: TAFAOOL's reappearance third at Newmarket is easily the most persuasive evidence in this line-up.

Only 3 under 20/1

410 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Hawkeyethenoo, 6/1 Igoyougo, 10/1 Avertuoso, Distant Sun, Prince Namid, Wicked Wilma, 12/1 Ingleby Star, Peninsular War, 14/1 Killer Class, 20/1 Lesley´s Choice, Mandarin Spirit, 25/1 Sandwith,

DIOMED VERDICT: HAWKEYETHENOO (nap) has thrived since being dropped in trip for current connections and he's capable of adding to last week's Ayr success, despite his penalty.

Class 5 0-75 handicap price gapper

650 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Looby Loo, 11/8 Wake Up Call, 8/1 Abbashinko, 12/1 Nativity, 25/1 Clever Omneya, 40/1 Athboy Auction, 50/1 Cativo, Sandy Par.

DIOMED VERDICT: Wake Up Call has shown fair form in two starts on turf but LOOBY LOO, who has more speed in her pedigree, seems likely to be better suited by this sharp 6f and should improve on her promising debut.

Straight 8 and 3 places and 2 clear market leaders

ONE A DAY
THe broadband is playing havoc with my work today and this is very late.
600 Werder Bremen - over 1.5 goals looks good and its in running - 1.16 involves both teams
745 - Man City v Scunny - even 2nd string City should have too much and perhaps they want to put down a marker in this new season of money 1.14 over 1.5 goals and 1.2 match odds
115 PUNCH - this must involve 2 horses from the 4 bar accidents but 1.06 and 1.07 tells you as much
As this is rushed thanks to broadband or lack of, I can't really look i depth at horses. For me Man City to beat Scunny looks the call and over 1.5 goals at 1.14 involves both sides




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