22/10

Pride of Dulcote won as expected really ( assuming no fall as it is jumps). I was very happy with the football yesterday. 0-0 1-0 I suggested Man Utd , and a neutral bet in over 1.5 goals Real Madrid cos we just didn't know which Milan would turn up - well good bet that as Milan won 3-2
Enhanced bet? Porto a goal down and 1.25 shots and ended up winning 2-1.
If I'd have known Athletico Madrid wouldn't turn up, then I would have lumped on the 1.47 Chelsea!

200 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 High Importance, 2/1 Essexbridge, 5/1 Tahseen, 8/1 Bonnie Brae, 12/1 Avon Rock, 33/1 Penderyn, Varachi.

DIOMED VERDICT: HIGH IMPORTANCE (nap) did enough on his Lingfield debut from a wide draw to suggest he can beat Essexbridge this time.

2 of the best on High and Essex but 2 places and a maiden race 1.33 high importance to place

255 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Unforgettable, 13/8 Markila, 4/1 Leamington Lad, 33/1 Secret Cavern.

DIOMED VERDICT: Unless Markila can produce something pretty decent on her chase debut, this looks booked for UNFORGETTABLE.

A 33/1 outsider here and 3 horses and 2 places I hope. Market important here, but these are chase debutants 1.23 the fav to place Richar Johnson has riden Unforgettable last twice, so why is he now on Markila ( could be that Unforgettable needs the 5lb claimer) - bit of insier info for Dickie here?Markila is 1.26 to place

We're going to get these tempting probability bets over the jumps this season, and provided none fall, then it offers a superb lucky dip - pick one of the 3 and hope he comes 1st or 2nd

530 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Quentin Collonges, 9/4 William´s Wishes, 9/2 Substitute, 7/1 Iron Steve, 14/1 Papradon, 100/1 Ten Hour Lunch.

DIOMED VERDICT: QUENTIN COLLONGES is the interesting one and, in receipt of 7lb from William's Wishes, should be hard to beat.

Another interesting race with apparent outsiders and 2 strong market leaders 1.23 to place

FOOT BALL
Northern Ireland under 17 v Malta u17 - 1.37 - Northern Ireland are not quite world beaters themselves!
Valencia v Slavia Prague - 1.26 - Villa back and fit and should be a significant gulf in class, but with these one offs there's not head to head form .(see Barca v Rubin!!) - 3 draws on the trot at home - from a sequencing perspective, at 1/5, there is an oppotunity for Valencia to end this sequence. If Valencia play as they did against Seville then they should have far too much for Slavia PRague who lost 2-0 away to Genoa, and I suspect Valencia are better than Genoa.
6pm Shaktar v Toulouse - 4/9 - always return to Shaktar as they take this competition very seriously
805 - Panathanaikos v Sturm Graz - 1/3 - should be another gulf in class here - Greek league v Austrian - Pana, typical of Greeks, are generally unspectacular scorers
805 v- Gala v Dinamo - 4/11 - at the moment I'm just listing the shorties and then hope to justify the odds later. - form line thru the Pana game Gala beat them 3-1 and they beat Dinamo 1-0
Fulham v Roma should be interesting and I would think Woy would want to keep it tight so I may pwefer under 2.5 goals to twade with .Fulham's only losses at home have been against Chelsea and Arsenal .Roma have scored in all games this season, but tended to draw away from home.
I have a feeling Celtic might be found out against Hamburg this evening. Scottish Premier LEague just does not have the competitiveness of the Bundesliga. 2nd in their league and not lost this season, they ca be full of goals when on form. Interestingly Hamburg have scored 7 goals this season in the 1st 15 minutes.A recent 0-0 with Motherwell is hardly a good starting point for Celtic - against the stronger Scottish teams, they have only drawn at home and Hamburg are quite easily far far better. Like Rangers who have been out of their depth, there could be goals tonight.
730 - Cyprus u 17 v Portugal u17 - 1.37 -away - should have too much?

SHORTLIST
Not taken at all by the horse racing today - there's so many maiden races and I'm left with 3 jumps races today,and all 3 of them are 2 places only.

255 LUDLOW is the only horse race of interest to me today simply because there looks to be one horse at 33/1 who can be ignored - if getting involved the hope is that this is dominated by Unforgettable and Markilla
Valencia v Slavia Prague - 1.25 is reasonable enough and there should be a gulf in class here - 0-0 against Barca at the weekend nothing to be ashamed of. 3 draws at home in the league is a sequence which could be ended today?
Shaktar v Toulouse - Toulouse not having the strongest of seasons and Shaktar really want to replicate last year's successes in this competition. Home advantage should be enough tonight - laying Toulouse is the same as a 1.12 (nearly 1.13) bet and this could be a way in. I don't know if I'm confident enough to back Shaktar on the nose. -should be goals in this game for sure 1.26 over 1.5 goals
I can't get the Celtic v Hamburg game out of my mind. Am I missing something or is Hamburg's 2.62 very inviting. A must win for the Bhoys but this is good opposition from a good league in good form. Let's face it, Celtic lost to Rapid Vienna for goodness sake! Over 1.5 goals is 1.33 and given Celtic must win, then this bet involves both teams. Hamburg have been solid and been scoring in this competition. I suspect it is sentimentality and home advantage that is keeping Celtic's price relatively short.Laying Celtic is a 1.47 bet, but they might easily raise their game ofr a one off so I would prefer a neutral bet where both teams are involved and that equals goals!
ONE A DAY
A very difficult day to nail a really solid bet, and all shortlisters have their appeal but also contain an element of risk. The 255 ludlow should be fought out between the front 2 -Unforgettable has had the recent run and Markila is coming off a long lay off. Also Unforgettable holds Leamington Lad on recent running. 5 lb claimer on board ( would have preferred Dickie Johnson onboard )
For me though today, I am taken with Valencia in the football ( to trade if they score first) - the reason is that they have a 3 game home draw sequence and have an opportunity to break that today against apparent weaker opposition.
At the same price is Shaktar v Toulouse over 1.5 goals at 1.26 and this is my one a day today ( cue the first 0-0 after 2 successive 4-1 wins for Shaktar and a 3-2 and 2-2 recent performances for Toulouse)