Sunday 4 October 2009

4/10

Lillie and Goldikova both placed and barca won yesterday
Enhanced bets? Well for m. Ne, Bolton 1-0 up - I could see a Spuds equaliser , Man Utd a goal down at home , surely equalise so we can trade out , and Brazil under 20's 1-0 down to football powerhouses, erm, Australia and they equalised.
Braga 0-0 v Setabul - away side lose a player, but remains 0-0 until the pre match odds return - enhanced bet surely as Braga have 11 men v 10 man Setabul yet the odds are the same as they were before the game!! Braga eventually got the inevitable goal and trade out at 1-0
All done using www.futbol24.com - nice profit on all
You see the importance of trading out after the equaliser (Man Utd) as we cannot foretell the future.
215 TIPP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Captain James Cook, 7/2 Julie´s Jet, 4/1 Astrakham, 5/1 Knights Templar, 14/1 Quixote´s Quest, 16/1 Speed Steed, 25/1 Doonmore, 33/1 Hey Bosco, Indian St Jovite, New Destination, 50/1 Big Bad Billy Bob, New Touch, Refuelled, Vernice.
Some high class racing in Longchamp today but very competitive indeed. This is my first race of interest but is an unraced O'Brien 2 year old ,battered into 2/5 - reputation? We know little else about the horse other than connections 1.17 to place for a debutant is either foolish or there's some insider knowledge

235 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Moorlands Teri, 7/2 Psychological, 5/1 Jim Tango, 6/1 Feel The Force, 14/1 Bradford Boris.

DIOMED VERDICT: MOORLANDS TERI did well in bumpers and looks a bright prospect for novice hurdles.

2nd fav out makes life easier for market leader but only 2 places over the jumps 1.15

245 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bergo, 2/1 Noticeable, 7/1 Hi Tide, 16/1 Private Lives, 33/1 Musical Weld.

DIOMED VERDICT: Bergo was the best of these over hurdles but NOTICEABLE has done well since encountering fences and gets the vote.

Noticeable leapfrogged into fav and all red and McCoy - but 2 places again 1.22 to pplace

250 TIPP
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Encompassing, 7/2 Utrillo, 4/1 Sansibar, 6/1 Righteous Man, 8/1 Irish Reel, 10/1 Global Recovery, 33/1 Knockgraffon Lad, 50/1 Alhaverte.

While Aiden O'Brien is off assaulting the French, he is back in Tipp with 1st and 2nd favs here -one another debutant - 3 places I hope in this was8-but-now-7 runner field 1.14 and 1.85 and 3 places and 7 runners

315 LOngChAMP
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Sea The Stars, 6/1 Fame And Glory, 8/1 Conduit, 12/1 Cavalryman, 14/1 Vision D´Etat, 16/1 Stacelita, 20/1 Youmzain, 22/1 Dar Re Mi, 33/1 Beheshtam, Getaway, 150/1 Magadan, 200/1 Hot Six, 250/1 Grand Ducal, 300/1 La Boum, The Bogberry, 500/1 Set Sail, Steele Tango, Tangaspeed, Tullamore.

DIOMED VERDICT: Ground conditions look like being spot on for SEA THE STARS, the way he has been finishing off his races over 1m2f suggests the return to the distance of his Derby success will not be a problem and he is very much the one to beat.

The Arc de Triomphe - Sea the stars a price gapper and "very much the one to beat" - Eyebrows back onboard and his big race experience is vital. of course the opposition really is first class - 1.31 to place is mighty tantalising and is relatively big because this ain't no 8 runner conditional jockeys hands and heels selling stakes race!!
Will this ultraconsistent horse be out of the 1st 3?


320 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Marsool, 7/2 Takelli, 8/1 Richo, 16/1 Alittlemoreflair, 25/1 Highland Storm, 28/1 Dark Oasis, 50/1 Tricky Trev.

DIOMED VERDICT: Very hard to see beyond MARSOOL, who fulfilled debut promise over hurdles when winning well at Newton Abbot last time and who has been found a weak race in which to try and follow up.

2nd fav out should make life a lot easier for market leader 1.19

355 TIPP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Go Native, 3/1 Raise Your Heart, 4/1 Essex, 5/1 River Liane, 10/1 Carthalawn, 16/1 Tramp Stamp, 33/1 Mahrajaan.

2nd and 3rd are non runners and original fav remains 1.12

425 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Press The Button, 11/4 Tayarat, 17/2 Natural Action, 12/1 Amwell Brave, 16/1 Chalice Welcome, William Hogarth, 20/1 Classical Rhythm, 33/1 Director´s Chair, 50/1 Galley Slave, 100/1 Veras Joy, Vogarth, 150/1 Racing Stripes.

DIOMED VERDICT: Decent Flat-racer PRESS THE BUTTON won in fine style on his hurdles debut over C&D in August and will be very tough to beat in this uncompetitive race if jumping as competently again.

yet again, nearest rival is a non runner meaning Press's price is now 1/3 - 1.08 plenty short enough over obstacles

FOOTBALL
As I write, I have just had another successful enhanced bet - ajax 2-1 down with 35 minutes to play and backed at 3.85 - they equalised - laid off at 2.08, BUT they were as high as 5.1 to back - with more than 1/2 hour of the match to go!! Cha Ching!!
13:30 Arsenal vs Blackburn 1/5
CIRCUMSTANCES.... Man Utd draw , Either Liverpool or Chelsea will win, or draw, both cannot take 3 points - Arsenal at 1/5 at home - MUST take this opportunity surely while 2 of the other contenders cut each others' throats
14:00 Vejle vs FC Fyn 2/7
I am being drawn to this Danish first division match - no head to heads - away side newly promoted? Vejle have scored easily against teams similarly rated to FC Fyn ( Betdevil ratings)
15:00 FK Tonsberg vs Skjetten 1/14
Now I'm no expert!! Norwegian 2nd tier but ust have to go by odds
15:00 Dundee vs Annan Athletic 1/4
Scottish Challenge Cup and should be a gulf in class surely?
15:00 Young Boys vs Aarau 1/5
Top versus bottom and 3-0 head to head augurs well for this match -
6:00 Xerez vs Málaga 8/5
Well done new boys on shutting out Espanyol - despite previous scorelines they have been ultra defensive for long periods which could signal unders
17:00 Salzburg vs Austria Karnten 1/6
Top v Bottom
17:30 CSKA Sofia vs Sliven 1/12
Huge difference in the betdevil ratings for this lot should mean a 3-0 win or thereabouts
18:00 Sporting Lisbon vs Belenenses 2/7
Away side have been well beaten by top 3 sides - Sporting only beaten at home by Porto and Braga - other title contenders - this could be a good enhanced betting match given Sporting's 3-2 last time out
18:00 Fenerbahçe vs Genclerbirligi 2/7
Home team 7 from 7 and unbeaten. Away side unbeaten with 5 draws and 2 away wins! I doubt I would be tempted with the 2/7 here.
19:00 Rosenborg vs Start 1/3
home side unbeaten this season and a possible lay of opposition rather than backing home team
19:15 Dinamo Zagreb vs Varteks 1/6
Consistently banging in the goals at home and should continue tonight

SHORTLIST
235 UTTOX - Moorlands Teri 1.15 to place with nearest market rival out - only 2 places though
245 HUNT - Noticeable is one of only 2 under 12/1 and has McCoy on board - also well fancied all morning - again ,alas, only 2 places
315 LONGCHAMP - a horse worthy of odds on status in an Arc de triomphe - Sea the stars is 1.31 to place and this is a dificult race to win given the competitive nature of the race, but Kinane onboard can hopefully avoid traffic problems and place at least
320 HUNT - Marsool is assisted by the absence of 2nd fav here - again only 2 places but surely can take advantage
Young Boys v Aarau 1/5 is about right and look good for a home win
ONE A DAY
Pricewise, Sea the stars stands out at 1.31 - now I have personally made my money on Ajax enhanced bet so this is a bet to nothing for me. Biggest field Sea has encountered thus far and probably the best quality - 19 runners can equal traffic problems but the old general Kinane is onboard.
9 of the 19 runners are 200/1 or bigger and can hopefully stay at the back and not interfere ( 2 will - the O'Brien pacesetters)
Young Boys look my strongest other bet of the day and should score first .
All other races are 2 place obstacle races but look strong too
So a bit of a gamble today for me on Sea the stars despite the big competitive field
As I write Arsenal are 1-0 down to Blackburn at home - hoping they can equalise soon for the enhanced trade

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