27/11

Irish Music was available at 1.13 to place, but went off at 1.06 allowing a free trade for the early birds. Again I am frustrated by my cautious attitude as everything placed yesterday. I did get involved with Ernst Blofeld in running at 1.18 to place as his jumping was exemplary and it did not look like he would make any jumping errors. The advantage of in running betting!

Again the tennis offered a good tradeable on Federer, laying him initially and very happy with the Del Potro break early.

100 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Mille Chief, 11/4 Royal Mix, 14/1 Corredor Sun, 16/1 Prince Pippin, 20/1 Beat The Devil, Icy Colt, Me Voici, 66/1 Princess Soraya.

DIOMED VERDICT: ROYAL MIX could prove the value on his hurdling debut.

FAv out opens things up to Royal Mix.3 places and 1.13 to place in this 7 runner race makes this a good place opportunity for the Nicholls/Walsh combo

120 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Troopingthecolour, 4/1 Shakalaka, 5/1 Capeability, 8/1 In Secret, 14/1 Try Ca4t, 100/1 Northern Genes.

DIOMED VERDICT: This should be the day TROOPINGTHECOLOUR raises a winning flag.

A place backers dream this Trooping - 2nd last 4 starts -only 2 places today though but should be competitive 1.16 to place

230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Jarrow, 9/2 Master Of Dance, 7/1 Transfixed, 14/1 Ramamara, 33/1 During The War.

DIOMED VERDICT: Mark Johnston has found a good opportunity for JARROW to take another step up the ladder.

Woud prefer to see Mr Fannin onboard, but Fairley is good enough and Jarrow for Mark Johnston could be relied upon to place - only 2 places 1.11 to place

240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Punchestowns, 5/1 Dee Ee Williams, 6/1 Red Admiral, 33/1 Martys Mission.

DIOMED VERDICT: PUNCHESTOWNS found only Big Buck's too good for him as a staying hurdler and that form is miles better than anything achieved by today's rivals.

Some of the Cheltenham big boys making a return -1.16 to place is a big price given there is one clear outsider and 2 places

345 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Bellvano, 3/1 Henry King, 7/1 Prince Buster, Tocca Ferro, 9/1 Black Jack Blues, 14/1 Cois Farraig, 16/1 Extreme Conviction, 20/1 Island Jim, 25/1 Running Upthathill, 33/1 Badger Foot, 40/1 Cedar Falls, Queenstown Lad, 100/1 Also Jo, Shannon Bob,

DIOMED VERDICT: Henry King should not be long in winning over hurdles but he looks to be taking on an exciting prospect in dual bumper winner BELLVANO.

Only 4 under 25/1 should be the ones to focus on

FOOTBALL
De Graafshaff v Harlem - 1.27 - we saw with Cambuur this time last week that the expected avalanche of goals did not arrive. I would expect goals again as De GRaafshaff 6 of the bottom 7, (Harlem are one of the 7 lower teams) convincingly at home.
Harlem has lost 3-2 and 4-1 against the top 2 sides ( De Graaf are 3rd in the Dutch 2nd division)
NOT IN RUNNING
Anderlecht v kortrijk - 1.26 - unbeaten at home-last 3 home games by 2 clear goals - kortrijk can be difficult buggers away from home, having drawn 5 ,lost 1 and won 1 including a score draw away to 2nd side Club Brugge - Anderecht, though, have beaten Kortreijk at their gaff 2-0 which fits in to the 2-0 recent home wins. A tricky game to weigh up given the away side's impressive away form (or rather their ability to NOT get beaten away) - IN RUNNING
Sparta Rotterdam v PSV - unbeaten away from home and the only draws coming against top 5 sides, - fc twente beat Sparta 2-0 at home but SParta did beat Feyenoord 2-1 at home. I would look to a goals bet here rather than PSV as there could be a draw here.

SHORTLIST
The first 4 races all look very solid as place only potentials and for me the standout, probability wise, is Punchestowns is 1.15 to place and there is a clear 33/1 outsider leaving 3 fighting for 2 places.
NEGATIVES - not run since Cheltenham in March - not run over chase fences where nearest 2 rivals have
POSITIVES - Barry Geraghty onboard for Nicky Henderson. hurdling form is simply standout and a clear round should suffice.
1.2 over 1.5 goals in the PSV game has a chance of coming in with free scoring PSV

ONE A DAY
Either of the 2 mentioned above is good - the footy of course has no ground concerns or no debutants over obstacles. So Punchestowns at the odds of 1.15 / 1.16 looks the best probability race of the day but today I will definitely be following the racing and mentioned races above in the hope of doing and Ernst Blofeld like yesterday