10/11

What a disappointment yesterday! Attack v defence. Keeper decided to have the game of his life and Naval's defence consistented of 10 outfield players , and it should have been 4 or 5-0 to Benfica! The goal came, but all too late for overs backers or traders.
In retrospect, Benfica were always going to win and the match odds bet was better!
Enhanced bets? Liverpool 2-1 down at home and equalise and already said Benfica touched as high as 3.8 in the match odds market. For those watching the match on Betfair video this was a good enhanced bet even at 3.00 ( which I backed Benfica at ( they were 1.21 pre match))

100 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Wild Rhubarb, 4/1 Megasue, Theft, 11/2 Queen Poline, 7/1 Gentle Caribou, 12/1 Sheila´s Castle, 14/1 Alasi, 20/1 Slick Mover, 25/1 Oh No Rosa, 40/1 Etain, 66/1 Behest, Little Roxy, Merstone Lady, Sweet Request, 100/1 Veras Joy.

Fav is out -Only 5 are under 16/1 here -the ones to concentrate on? Hurdle debutants mostly so caution 1.58 to place 120 SEDG BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Honour The World, 11/4 Freedom Flying, 7/2 Commons Glory, 6/1 Fistral, 7/1 Planetarium, 12/1 Insignia, 20/1 Golden Globe, 66/1 Perez, 100/1 Noble Vic. DIOMED VERDICT: HONOUR THE WORLD should be hard to beat down in this grade back over hurdles if lasting out this trip and is just preferred to fellow Irish raider Commons Glory. Although this is a selling urdle, 2nd fav is out leaving Honour the World with an easier opportunity - 2 horses can clearly be discounted leaving 6 fighting for 3 places 1.58 the fav and 1.42 Common world to place 240 EXETER BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Inchidaly Rock, 9/2 Giles Cross, 11/2 Heathcliff, 15/2 Hey Big Spender, 8/1 Connak, 11/1 Cashel Blue, 50/1 Pine Native, Wadswick Ben. DIOMED VERDICT: Several interesting recruits from hurdles in a decent event. INCHIDALY ROCK (nap) was the best of them in that sphere and, with three wins in Irish points auguring well for this switch to fences and hailing from the Nicholls stable, he is readily preferred. Walsh/Nicholls on chase bow. " hard to beat" says Diomed. The straight 8 runners here and 2 are 100/1 or bigger.Still odds on the fav. 1.17 to place

310 EXETER BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Copper Bleu, 5/1 Take The Breeze, 13/2 Stradbrook, 17/2 Captain Americo, 10/1 Award Winner, 12/1 Ajzal, Dover´s Hill, 16/1 Cloud Nine, 20/1 Ballinderry Park, 25/1 Costa Courta, 33/1 Turnworth. DIOMED VERDICT: A race which has attracted a whole host of very interesting recruits from hurdling and looks sure to produce lots of future winners. If COPPER BLEU is able to show something close to his very smart novice hurdle form he is likely to be the one for today. Now odds on and a Walsh/Nicholls horse 2nd fav. Like the race above, all really hinges on a translation of hurdles form to the chasing sphere 1.23 to place 400 LING BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Chilli Rose, 9/2 Cashpoint, 13/2 Alwaysonthemove, 10/1 Tara´s Attraction, 14/1 I Owe Silver, 16/1 Stay In Tune, 20/1 Moonset, 25/1 Mr Murray, 66/1 Kirkum. DIOMED VERDICT: CHILLI ROSE is the one to beat on the form she showed when sixth in the mares' bumper at the Grand National meeting at Aintree in April. Thornton/King on the fav now 4/9 - no obstacles to overcome here bar the horse having not run since April 1.11 to place 410 EXETER BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 The Minack, 7/4 Best Oscar, 8/1 Aztec Treasure, 14/1 Slabsy, 20/1 Swincombe Rock, 25/1 Bell Hill Lad. DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a match between ex-Irish pointers THE MINACK and Best Oscar. We see these a lot during the jumps season - potential " matches" between 2 maket leaders. the live market makes this a 3 horse race between the 3 under 25/1 -again Wals/Nicholls represented by the Minack. Both horses are points winners so have experience jumping. Faith in the market here and in the hope this is, indeed a 2 horse race 1.23 and 1.37 the front 2 to place FOOTBALL Well, Naval parked the bus, another 2 buses, and a big Hercules transport plane infront of Benfica's goal. Will that be the case this evening? 2nd leg of Spanish Cup games and I did mention to look out for Real madrid v Alcorcan. A huge 4-0 shock away for Real. Back at home now in this 2nd leg and will Alcorcan do a Naval and park the bus? 1.06 for the straight win tells all 1.06 over 1.5 goals 1.2 over 2.5 goals 1.28 half time/full time 1.25 to be winning at half time Team news vital here. Pelligrini has been given a reprieve with Real's sudden winning turn around recently, and defeat here is unthinkable 2.08 over 4.5 goals for those who think Real will get back the 4 lost goals and go on to win. This interests me albeit with a strong Real side out Sevilla v Ath Ciudad. 4-2 in the first leg, so a glimmer of hope for Ciudad. Again team news important. Sevilla coming off a 3-2 home win at the weekend 1.28 the straight win 1.19 over 1.5 goals Valencia v Alcoyaro - all to play for after a 1-0 away win ( that's if Valencia take this seriously of course - and this counts for all of the big boys this evening) 1.28 the win Barcelona v Leonisa - 2-0 lead into the home leg for Barca - will be a much weakened side this evening at the Nou Camp and no real reason to bust a gut ( but Barca are the current cup holders) 1.13 the straight win 1.12 over 1.5 goals. The question is motivation. Real have a 4 goal deficit to overcome- Barca don't SHORTLIST

120 SEDGFIELD
50/50 race really here with 6 fighting for 3 places and likely domination between Honour the world and Commons Glory I would favour the live market leader at the off but am taken by the "hard to beat" tag on Honour the world -NEGATIVES - a seller

240 EXETER
Inchadaly Rock - short price due to connections, ability or both?
Debutant in this sphere and 1.17 to place
again a 6 runner affair if the 2 outsiders play no part, meaning the selection must beat 3 to place

400 LINGFIELD
Chilli Rose -I like it when betting forecast prices shorten in the live market - here it's 4/9 Concern is the lengthy absence ( but as you can see in the early jumps seasonwe never get a really "clean" bet - they're either coming off a layoff, debuting over jumps or chase fences, or the ground is soft)
1.11 to place and no obstacles to overcome

REAL MADRID - team news vital here but a strong team should help claw back the 4 goal deficit. 2.08 over 4.5 goals is highly speculative but based on a strong Real team and an attitude that says they want to stay in the cup
Best shorter odds could be 1.25 to be leading at half time

ONE A DAY
BEST ODDS - 2.08 over 4.5 goals in the Real Madrid cup match.-their website simply states " turnaround time" - I did mention that the first game looked like a fix in order to get bums on seats in the bigger venue for the 2nd leg.This has worked with a sell out tonight. Am I just being cynical? Fans will want to know - can they get 4 or more and go through? Concern that Alcorcan do a Naval, but surely there should be too much for them to not concede
No Casillas, Benzema or Alonso tonight - from the website

Goalkeepers

Dudek, Adan

Defenders

Arbeloa, Pepe, Albiol, Marcelo, Garay

Midfielders

Gago, Diarra, Kaka, Lass, Van der Vaart, Granero

Forwards

Raul, Van Nistelrooy. Higuain

looks a very good forward line. Kaka plays too

SOLID LOOKING - 1.11 Chili Rose in the 400 Lingfield and Inchadaly Rock at the slightly bigger prices. I would go in time order here. If there are any earlier selections that present themselves ( late non runners or even a market leader falling early in a race, I will take it and recount tomorrow)

As ever, if you disagree, make your own picks. I do hope Real take this seriously tonight and 2.08 over 4.5 goals is speculative but achievable if they play to their abilities.
For me, personally, it's over 4.5 goals. This is not really rock solid at all and does not fit into the "shock if it loses" category.