Saturday 14 November 2009

14/11

garde Champetre did it again for an Enda (not EDNA!!) Bolger 1-2 -stick that in your diary for March 2010 at the Festival
1200 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Main Spring, 5/2 Rumoush, 3/1 Shamir, 6/1 Boston Blue, 16/1 Thundering Home, 20/1 Street Entertainer, 25/1 Destiny Blue, 50/1 Babycakes, 66/1 Chief Of Ten, 100/1 Ava Doll, Billyonair, Sansili.

DIOMED VERDICT: Market confidence behind Main Spring or Rumoush would be significant but SHAMIR sets a fair standard on his seconds round here last month.

Like Kinetic yesterday, a horse placed twice in maidens - Main String

1230 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Chamirey, 3/1 Predictive, 5/1 Humbel Ben, 7/1 Chouromanesco, 8/1 Quintessentially, 10/1 Mr Tingle, 16/1 City Of Doral, 50/1 Quizwork, Simbamead, 100/1 Desert Pearl, La Pirogue.

DIOMED VERDICT: CHAMIREY stands out a mile on his French form.

3rd fav out and Doimed is taken by Chamirey 1.29 place

1250 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Barizan, 13/2 Trumpstoo, 7/1 Roseska, Screaming Brave, 15/2 Pistolet Noir, 8/1 Olofi, 20/1 Nicky Nutjob, 33/1 Royal Max, 100/1 Princess Soraya.

DIOMED VERDICT: BARIZAN handled soft ground on the Flat and can maintain his winning sequence.

Price gapper now odds on under McCoy, but the concern is the winning run - it will end some time. BUT will that stop the horse placing 1.23 place

105 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Sullumo, 7/2 Midnight Chase, 5/1 Maktu, Vamizi, 8/1 Arctic Echo, 33/1 Gaining Ground, 50/1 Tokpela, 66/1 Moorlands Return.

DIOMED VERDICT: SULLUMO is held in high regard by Charlie Mann and could have the class to make a winning start over fences, even if short of peak fitness.

Another smart hurdler starting chasing in Sullumo. 1.31 place

115 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 L´Ami, 5/1 Anothercoppercoast, 7/1 Zest For Life, 10/1 Berkley, 14/1 Outlaw Pete, 16/1 Benefit Night, 25/1 Battlefront, Lord Nellerie, 33/1 Ballycarron Lad, Champion Charlie, Ooh Cha Cha, The Ginger Man, 50/1 Miyajima, 66/1 Dromone Express.

That boy Bolger again, this time in Ireland 1.15 to place

120 CHElteNHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Pettifour, 9/4 Toby Jug, 6/1 Kanpai.

DIOMED VERDICT: PETTIFOUR has to show he can jump fences but this should be a very good opportunity in receipt of 8lb from chief danger Toby Jug.

Only 3 but 2 places so if you're brave enough ,take your pick and hope 1.27, 1.41 and 1.98 to place these 3 so take your pick - a great probability race

150 PUNCH
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Dunguib, 11/2 Puyol, 10/1 Fantoche, 12/1 Dante Hall, 16/1 Carrigeen King, 20/1 Freneys Well, Hampshire, 33/1 Schindlers Society, 50/1 Take Me There, Therangersdaughter, 100/1 Arctic Blue.

This is THE Irish horse for the Cheltenham Festival in March and although 1/2 in the live market, and heavy ground today, Dunguib cannot be discounted 1.07 to place - terrible price in heavy over obstacles - 1.21 in the win market may be worthy of support

230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Black Eagle, 4/1 Alpen Glen, 5/1 Can Can Star, 6/1 Bound By Honour, Spitfire, 14/1 Weald Park, 50/1 Our Teddy,

DIOMED VERDICT: An 11-week break should have refreshed ALPEN GLEN and she can get back on track at the expense of Black Eagle.

2 days ago it was a 1st and a 2nd for Godolphin - more of the same I suppose with Black eagle while the stable are RED HOT 1.33 to place BUT 2 places

305 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Global City, 3/1 Capricorn Run, 9/2 Five Star Junior, 5/1 Exclamation, Son Of The Cat, 10/1 Artistic License, 25/1 Daddy´s Gift, 66/1 Capone, Tin Cha Woody, 100/1 Diddums, 500/1 Beau Jazz.

DIOMED VERDICT: The 3yo SON OF THE CAT, who has been on the upgrade since gelded and faced an impossible task in hindsight when second to Arthur's Edge at Goodwood last time, is preferred to Global City and Five Star Junior.

Again blind faith in Godolphin? Global City 1.55 to place

550 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Huroof, 9/2 Jounce, 6/1 Chicane, Effervesce, 12/1 Evening Tale, Hovering Hawk, Sweet Caroline, 14/1 Princess Mandy, 33/1 Pinewood Polly, 66/1 Akubra, Cheyenne Chant, The Blue Dog.

DIOMED VERDICT: HUROOF ran with plenty of promise on her debut and she can put her disappointing effort at Folkestone behind her.

godolphin again 1.22 to place

FOOTBALL
Kenya v Nigeria - 1.51 - surely if a full squad, The Nigerians should have too much -it is a World Cup Qualifier - head to heads are in favour of Nigeria - a lay of Kenya perhaps here, or if you're brave 1.51 - this is not in running hence the reason why I'd lay Kenya - I can't be reactive
Russia v Slovenia - 1.39 - Play off qualifier
croatia v Leichtenstein - 1.08 - a friendly I think but should be too good and goals could be the call here 1-15 half time/full time but illiquid market - 1.36 over 2.5 goals here and tradeable as in running.
Brazil v England - a friendly so nothing to play for, and Qatar. Over 1.5 goals is a massive 1.35 here
Ireland v France - surely a shut out job by the Irish boys this evening, leaving under 3.5 goals appealing at 1.2
SHORTLIST
1230 UTTOXETER - 5 horses 20/1 or over and a 3rd fav non runner should leave this for Chamirey and Predictive
115 PUNCHESTOWN - L'ami and Bolger -a good combination reflected in the price but 1.15 to place
150 PUNCH - Dunguib's place price is too short ( the same as Croatia to win, and I would prefer the Croats)
Win only price might be worth a dabble at 1.21
laying Kenya is the same as a 1.12 bet. Not in running otherwise I'd back Nigeria and lay off
Croatia at 1.08 is a simple pick and if you don't mind the short price, well this is nice and simple.
ONE A DAY
Solid = Croatia at 1.08. Tradeable is over 2.5 goals at 1.36 but this is a friendly.
SImple enough and no need to be clever. Take the short odds today and move on.
Dunguib to win at 1.21 would be a good bet if you were feeling speculative

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