11/11

The solid one a days came in. In time order inchidaly Rock was the selection at a nice 1.2 at the off. He won
My personal speculative bet on Real Madrid saw a damp squid again as they only managed a 1-0.
Contrast with Barcelona who won 5-0 and I think I got the wrong over 4.5 goals. BUT I did back Barca myself at 2.8 over 4.5 goals having seen Sevilla and Atletico Madrid score 5and 6 goals despite comfortable 1st leg wins.
It was one of those " this'll pay for Xmas" bets for me. I just had the feeling there were going to be goals in the Barca match

Soccer > Barcelona v Leonesa : Over/Under 4.5 Goals

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Over 4.5 Goals		2.80	466.00	Back	10-Nov-09 21:04	838.80
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	838.80
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	838.80
					Commission @ 4.4%:	36.91
					Net Market Total:	801.89

At 0-0 it was looking like I'd done my dough, but 4 goals in 10 minutes in the 2nd half left me with a guaranteed green screen of £500. BUT with 25 minutes of the match to go, I decided that I would try to buy time.
The over 4.5 goals odds at 4-0, with 25 minutes to go , was 1.37.
I decided that I would wait until over 4.5 goals odds increased to 2.8 to lay and trade out for a break even. This gave plenty of time for Barca to nail a 5th goal.The 5th goal came in the 75th minute and Barca had pretty much replicated Athletico Madrid and Sevilla's home performances.
The backing of Barca was based on my strategy of looking at similar clubs at home against similar lowly opposition and getting a kind of guide scoreline for Barca.
So Real are quickly forgotten and I have some Xmas money to spend on the nephews and neices!!

Inchidaly Rock's win was nice but jumps racing can be back for the old ticker. One mistake 2 out and time seemed to have stood still. The horse pecked on landing and Ruby held on luckily.
The Nicholls/Walsh partnership had a treble on the day I believe

110 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Massasoit, 3/1 Comhla Ri Coig, 7/2 Burton Port, 7/1 Latanier, 10/1 Al Co, 20/1 Our Hero.

DIOMED VERDICT: In a notably promising field, MASSASOIT is given another chance to live up to what he showed first time out last season.

A lot of these beginners chases about this early jumps season and we see another Walsh/Nicholls fav, now evens. Not 3 places though like yesterday - 1.4 to place for Massasoit over the larger obstacles for the first time

300 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Comradeship, 3/1 Calypso Star, 6/1 Power Of Dreams, 12/1 Dazakhee, Sassanian, 14/1 Captain Clint, 16/1 As Brave As You, Desert Aisling, 20/1 Creevy, 25/1 Rescent, 50/1 Lord´s Seat.

DIOMED VERDICT: COMRADESHIP (nap) makes plenty of appeal on his nursery debut turned out quickly (future mark likely to be higher). Calypso Star and Dazakhee are also respected.

now 4/5 and always a good sign when short priced betting forecast price is even shorter in the live market -1.18 to place for Comradeship and the market certainly likes this one but a nursery debutant and all 2 year olds - been running exclusively in maiden company
Caution - nursery

410 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Whiteabbey, 7/4 Hard Act, 9/2 Rhythm Seeker, 20/1 Master Cospector, 33/1 Ringsend Rose.

DIOMED VERDICT: HARD ACT looks the one to be with despite a two-year absence.

Bumper so no obstacles and one of those 3 horses for 2 places races.Hard act not run for 2 years. A case of chose one of the 3 and hope he finishes in the first 2 - 1.37, 1.63 and 1.93 for the front 3 to place 1st or 2nd but a highly illiquid market and no money about as yet -As said there are no obstacles at all so no jumping concerns - will HArd Act's absence be the chink in the armour amongst the front 3? THe market nearer 410 will tell more - quite clearly it's not been motoring as yet

630 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Battleoftrafalgar, 5/2 Keraloun, 7/1 Hot Sand, 8/1 Fantando, Rock Pipit, 10/1 Bold Thady Quill, Zanoubiya, Zarif, 12/1 Coastal Waters, Oh So Beautiful, Tillahow, Whisper Cool, 16/1 The Gave, Valbucca,

Only 3 under 12/1 at time of writing and Battle represents Murtagh/O'Brien 1.46 to place and these evening markets will not be strong at tme of writing

720 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Next Move, 9/2 Hidden Glory, Mawaddah, 8/1 Faited To Pretend, Marie De Guise, 10/1 Vocabulary, Yabtree, 12/1 Abhar, 14/1 Maid In Heaven, 25/1 La Toya J, 50/1 Baggsy, Consult, Krysanthe, Plenty O´Toole.

DIOMED VERDICT: NEXT MOVE is bred to be useful and he won't have to be a superstar to make a winning start to his career.

Godolphin return to action - can they continue their domination?1.36 to place and again it is difficult to say " yes, place back this one" with neary 8 hours before race time

FOOTBALL
Mallorca v Valladolid-1.74 - unbeaten at home in the league but this is a Spanish Cup game.
Nothing else really football wise.
PARIS MASTERS TENNIS
Guez v Monfils 1.17 - based really on this being France and Monfils being French ( that's the extent of my tennis knowledge right there) - no head to heads but 16th in world playing 179th in the world
Federer v Benneteau - 1.06 win market and 1.27 2-0 sets - interestingly 1.03 Fed at Ladbrokes and 1.06 on Betfair
Almagro v nadal - 1.12 - Rafael seems to have overcome injuries and should surely be too good? 4-0 to Rafa head to heads
Murray v Blake - 1.16 - Ruby is 4th fav to win the tournamentand Blake is 230 on Betfair to win - last played on hard court in 2006 and Murray has surely improved considerably since.
SHORTLIST
410 BANGOR would be the first race of interest from me from a place only perspective today but as there is 4+ hours til race time, the betfair markets have not formed properly. This is an ideal probability bet where the live market will be an important decision making tool, as will our ability to find chinks in one or 2 of the front 3. As already said, hard act's absence is a big negative.
Soft ground today.
The evening meetings - it's not fair on me to be making decisions on these so early as the markets are not properly formed and a lot can happen
TENNIS
Of interest today given the big boys are out in force. Not my forte though Tennis and purely going by prices and names
Federer 2-0 sets at 1.27 is enticing.
2-0 against today's opponent and not dropped a set. Benneteau is french and may be boosted
Monfils instinctually would be shortlisted being French and some 160+ places ahead of his opponent. Motivation surely in home capital?

ONE A DAY
A difficult day for me to decide. The disadvantage for me is deciding so early. The 410 Bangor, for me, relies on the live market and 4pm markets compared to the midday markets -well there's no comparison - the market will naturally be far more accurate nearer the off.
As to the tennis? Well it's reputation only and head to heads stats that I can decide with. Federer 1.27 to win 2 sets to love is, most importantly, tradeable , and the price will drop considerably if Federer breaks serve early in the 1st set. This would be my option today.
Reliance on the big boys? Nadal?Monfils? Federer? Murray? Surely amongst these 4, we should favour the Short odds French player at home - much more motivation and home support ?(Monfils)
No official one a day bet today but I will monitor the 410pm markets and hope a weakness can be found in one of the 3 most likely to be fighting for 2 places. Instinct tells me Whiteabbey should be competitive.
I will look at Federer 2-0 sets at 1.27 later on with trading a must if Federer breaks early