30/11

Kazbow would have been the choice yesterday for the one a day -hope you sniffed it out yourself at Kempton.

Horse Racing > : To Be Placed > Kazbow

Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Bets

Selection		Odds	Stake (£)	Liability (£)	Bid type	Placed	Matched (GMT)	Profit/loss (£)
Kazbow		1.12	154.55		Back	29-Nov-09 16:18	29-Nov-09 16:18	18.55
Kazbow		1.12	45.45		Back	29-Nov-09 16:18	29-Nov-09 16:18	5.45

Don't forget Inter Milan at home - unbeaten again yesterday and I laid Fiorentina at 7.6 , around a 1.15 shot.
Football first
OB v Koge - 1.23 the home side
Top versus 2nd bottom side.
unbeaten at home but have had some tight games in a league of only 12 teams - 2 1-0's and 2 1-1's at home and one 2-1 at home from 7 home matches show that this team don't lose at home but may not be worth backing at 1.23
Koge have drawn 2 away but been royally spanked by Kopenhagen and Brondby ( remember OB are top of the league ,)
This is in running so I would back OB and hope they score first, then trade out , given the fact they have had so many tight games

100 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Den Of Iniquity, 7/4 Numide, 4/1 The Jazz Musician, 14/1 Maximix, 20/1 She´s Humble, 25/1 Premier Bleu, 33/1 Orana Conti.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to draw much encouragement from Numide's chase debut recently and this ought to go the way of DEN OF INIQUITY.

Heavy ground here today b ut a probability bet for place only backers - should involve 3 horses at the head of the market unless the ground finds them out. 1.45 to place in a very illiquid market
Den has won twice on heavy and it is always key when this have this ground to side with those proven on the surface. Normally, I would strike a line through heavy meetings

120 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Working Title, 7/4 I Have Dreamed, 11/4 Kanad, 25/1 Safe Investment, 100/1 Musical Weld, Vogarth.

an

DIOMED VERDICT: Softening ground could be a cause for concern with Kanad and Working Title but I HAVE DREAMED should be untroubled and has the edge in experience.

Yet another probability race and a concern that all 3 principles are in the same boat. Only really ever run over good to soft and the suspicion today is the ground with be softer rather then good

Working title is now odds on under Geraghty for Henderson - the partnership behind Punchestowns a few days ago. 1.29 to place and again the markets have not properly formed with 1.37 on the lay side indicating the back price should increase as the market becomes more active

130 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Quartano, 7/2 Lord Singer, 11/2 Alteranthela, 10/1 Ready Or Not, 16/1 Red Anchor.

DIOMED VERDICT: QUARTANO sets a clear standard on the form of his Plumpton win on heavy last time and should be hard to beat under a penalty.

Fav now 1/3 and winner on heavy last time out. I do like to see betting forecast prices battered in -again only 2 places means we have to be spot on here - horse is also a "hard to beat " selection - simply put you see the words " hard to beat" in Diomed's verdict and Spotliht mentions "should take some stopping" 1.12 to place1.35 to win

250 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 The Polomoche, 3/1 Teddy´s Reflection, 12/1 Marc Of Brilliance, 33/1 Art Gallery, Harvey May, 50/1 No More Punts.

DIOMED VERDICT: Teddy's Reflection is expected to make a better chaser but he has a big gap to bridge with THE POLOMOCHE on hurdle ratings. Both go well fresh.

2/5 betting forecast price now 1/5 in the live market -6 runners - 3 are 50/1 or bigger ideally leaving 3 other principles fighting for 2 places 1.13 to place

310 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Ravi River, 8/1 Desert Mile, Jord, 10/1 Sendreni, 12/1 Rosie Says No, Smalljohn, 16/1 Obe Gold, 20/1 Charlie Delta, Sir George, 50/1 Madame McManus, 100/1 Seren Arian, Spiders Tern.

DIOMED VERDICT: RAVI RIVER is a fair sort to be running in sellers and he can capitalise on what looks a good opening. Significant price gapper albeit in lowly selling company.Sir George and CHarlie Delta possible movers here 1.22 to place - nice price if we can have faith in this price gap SHORTLIST A difficult day with 2 places only generally available and heavy ground at one venue and officially good to soft at the other venue which threatens to become softer 130 FOLK - Quartano mentioned only because it is a " hard to beat " selection and faces only 3 now vying for 2 places. A clear round and faith in Diomed's confidence should ensure a place - red anchor is still in Betfair's market but not in the racing post betting forecast website so a concern this may be still 5 runners. 1.11 to place leaves little margin for error for a horse under a penalty in heavy ground 250 FAKENHAM - like Quartano, another horse here whose betting forecast price is significantly shorter in the live betting, Polomoche has 6 rivals, 3 of whom are 50/1 or bigger and, all things being equal, should play no part. 1.13 to place is a reasonable price given the horse should only have 2 to beat to place - newcomer to chase fences so a slight concern there but has the right jockey onboard who brought home the bacon on similarly profiled Punchestowns. 310 WOLVES - Ravi River is the best and most prominent price gapper of the day and has the advantage that there are no ground concerns on the all weather - plies his trade on the all weather and in class 4 and class 3 handicaps. Drop to selling company today is the reason behind the price gap Concern this is a seller and jockey has a poor win and place strike rate - SJ Craine - I don't know much about him.1.22 to place is the kind of price I would expect of a price gapper though. OB v Koge is an intriguing game. OB not reknowned for spanking teams at home, BUT away side have been spanked by 2 of the top 5 sides away from home and OB are top of the league, so using my system based on looking at teams similarly positioned in the league, then we would expect, at the very least, the 1.18 for over 1.5 goals to offer us something. As mentioned at the start of the blog, far too many draws, 1-0's at home mean that backing OB or backing over 1.5 goals would only be done with trading in mind. ONE A DAY No rock solids today for me in the "Big Bucks" category. Will heavy ground and the penalty affect Quartano? How will the Polomoche cope with chase fences for the first time ? Why is Ravi River running in a selling stakes race ? AS you can see there are opportunities today but there are question marks which don't make these opportunities rock solid. For me, I have found the " hard to beat" selections tend to run very well indeed which brings Quartano in. I have also found that betting forecast prices which are significantly shorter in the live market are a precursor to a good run - which brings the Polomoche in. And when horses are significantly price gapped like Ravi River, well they do tend to place NEGATIVES? Ground concerns - I hate betting in heavy ground regardless of pervious form in the ground. I don't like newcomers to the bigger obstacles too. And I don't like sellers, by definition the horses are not quite as reliable as Denman. I also don't know S J Craine sufficiently well, and his all weather record is not the best. LEaving a difficult decision to make today. Instinct tells me a no bet day and wait for the more solid options which will present themselves as the week unfolds, but were I to play, then faith perhaps in Quartano as a "hard to beat" selection, under strong connections and a winner in heavy , against 3 horses only for 2 places. Just hope I have made the right choice and don't rue heavy ground racing

28/11

Job done yesterday with Punchestowns and PSV - 1-1 within 30 mins

Another enhanced bet when 4/11 PSV went 2-1 down!! Nice little profit there

1245 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: EvensF Donnas Palm, 11/10 Mourad, 8/1 Time Electric, 14/1 City Meaning, 16/1 Rotorua.

50/50 race now with Time Electric out. Mourad is the Mullins horse and they are hot at the moment - only 2 places 1.16 to place but heavy ground

110 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Spinning Bailiwick, 9/2 Elusive Ronnie, 11/2 Head To Head, 15/2 Colombard, 12/1 Equinity, 20/1 Boundless Applause, 25/1 Native Dame, Tricky Trev, 33/1 Battimoore, Commandingpresence, Davids Mark,

DIOMED VERDICT: A 6lb penalty covers only a fraction of the improvement SPINNING BAILIWICK appeared to show in midweek and she must be hard to beat if lasting the extra furlong.

Price gapper in a class 7 handicap here could place as per my price gapper in a lowly handicap system 1.3 to place

135 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Big Buck´s, 6/1 Duc De Regniere, 10/1 Nacarat, 14/1 Lough Derg, 16/1 Blazing Bailey, 20/1 Souffleur, 50/1 No Refuge.

DIOMED VERDICT: This ought to be fairly straightforward for last season's champion staying hurdler BIG BUCK'S, who could be followed home by Duc De Regniere.

Walsh onboard and 1/3 in such a top class race should relay confidence 1.15 to place

150 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Binocular, 7/4 Solwhit, 10/1 Sublimity, 16/1 Go Native, 20/1 Al Eile, 50/1 Blue Bajan, Won In The Dark.

DIOMED VERDICT: It's hard to envisage the finish not being fought out principally by BINOCULAR and Solwhit. Solwhit is capable of producing a devastating burst of speed in testing conditions but, unless the rain unexpectedly arrives in torrents, conditions will favour Nicky Henderson's rising star, who is taken to make amends for his narrow defeat in the Champion Hurdle in March.

The fighting fifth should be between 2 horses, all things being equal, and it is that confidence that Bin and Sol will be the 2 which would be the only reason I would contemplate a place only bet - only 2 places 1.29 and 1.54 the front 2 to place

200 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Great Endeavour, 11/8 Jaunty Journey, 10/1 Its A Classic, 66/1 Ringsend Rose.

DIOMED VERDICT: GREAT ENDEAVOUR can make a winning start over fences on the back of his excellent effort in defeat at Cheltenham.

Interesting race with one clear outsider - can't find the place market

225 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Quantitativeeasing, 8/1 St Devote, 10/1 Wave Power, 14/1 Papa Caruso, 16/1 Cocoa Key, Mr Syntax, 20/1 Beauchamp, Eyre Square, 25/1 Sole Witness, 33/1 Patriot, Too Cool To Fool, 50/1 Arc Warrior, Shadrack, Super Ally, 100/1 Great Vintage, Mister Grady.

DIOMED VERDICT: QUANTITATIVEEASING looked a bit special winning a Punchestown bumper in April and there will be some long faces if he fails to make a successful transition to hurdling, making his debut at a relatively modest level.

They expect from Quantitativeeasing under McCoy 1.13 to place

240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Denman, 6/1 Barbers Shop, 13/2 What A Friend, 8/1 Killyglen, 9/1 Cappa Bleu, 14/1 State Of Play, 16/1 Ballyfitz, Gone To Lunch, Nenuphar Collonges, Snowy Morning, 28/1 My Will, 33/1 An Accordion, Kornati Kid, Niche Market, Offshore Account, War Of Attrition, 50/1 Joe Lively, Mon Mome, 66/1 Chelsea Harbour,

DIOMED VERDICT: Victory for Denman would be hugely popular but better value may be obtained with another previous winner in STATE OF PLAY.

HEart more than head here for Denman but if competitive, will be a nice place price 2.04 to place and 4 places

320 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Passkey, 7/4 Mustakmil, 9/2 Mile High Lad, 10/1 Peponi, 20/1 Cativo, Madame McManus, 33/1 Big Sur, Iron Master, 66/1 Espresso Steps,

DIOMED VERDICT: In an uncompetitive event MUSTAKMIL is taken to beat Passkey.

322 form is promising for place only 1.18 to place

FOOTY
1pm Shaktar 1.19 - only match odds avaiable and not in running
Werder v Wolfsburg - over 1.5 goals 1.18 and tradeable

ONE A DAY - time is running out so I'll chance Big Bucks at 1.15 to place -again only 2 to place

27/11

Irish Music was available at 1.13 to place, but went off at 1.06 allowing a free trade for the early birds. Again I am frustrated by my cautious attitude as everything placed yesterday. I did get involved with Ernst Blofeld in running at 1.18 to place as his jumping was exemplary and it did not look like he would make any jumping errors. The advantage of in running betting!

Again the tennis offered a good tradeable on Federer, laying him initially and very happy with the Del Potro break early.

100 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Mille Chief, 11/4 Royal Mix, 14/1 Corredor Sun, 16/1 Prince Pippin, 20/1 Beat The Devil, Icy Colt, Me Voici, 66/1 Princess Soraya.

DIOMED VERDICT: ROYAL MIX could prove the value on his hurdling debut.

FAv out opens things up to Royal Mix.3 places and 1.13 to place in this 7 runner race makes this a good place opportunity for the Nicholls/Walsh combo

120 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Troopingthecolour, 4/1 Shakalaka, 5/1 Capeability, 8/1 In Secret, 14/1 Try Ca4t, 100/1 Northern Genes.

DIOMED VERDICT: This should be the day TROOPINGTHECOLOUR raises a winning flag.

A place backers dream this Trooping - 2nd last 4 starts -only 2 places today though but should be competitive 1.16 to place

230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Jarrow, 9/2 Master Of Dance, 7/1 Transfixed, 14/1 Ramamara, 33/1 During The War.

DIOMED VERDICT: Mark Johnston has found a good opportunity for JARROW to take another step up the ladder.

Woud prefer to see Mr Fannin onboard, but Fairley is good enough and Jarrow for Mark Johnston could be relied upon to place - only 2 places 1.11 to place

240 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Punchestowns, 5/1 Dee Ee Williams, 6/1 Red Admiral, 33/1 Martys Mission.

DIOMED VERDICT: PUNCHESTOWNS found only Big Buck's too good for him as a staying hurdler and that form is miles better than anything achieved by today's rivals.

Some of the Cheltenham big boys making a return -1.16 to place is a big price given there is one clear outsider and 2 places

345 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Bellvano, 3/1 Henry King, 7/1 Prince Buster, Tocca Ferro, 9/1 Black Jack Blues, 14/1 Cois Farraig, 16/1 Extreme Conviction, 20/1 Island Jim, 25/1 Running Upthathill, 33/1 Badger Foot, 40/1 Cedar Falls, Queenstown Lad, 100/1 Also Jo, Shannon Bob,

DIOMED VERDICT: Henry King should not be long in winning over hurdles but he looks to be taking on an exciting prospect in dual bumper winner BELLVANO.

Only 4 under 25/1 should be the ones to focus on

FOOTBALL
De Graafshaff v Harlem - 1.27 - we saw with Cambuur this time last week that the expected avalanche of goals did not arrive. I would expect goals again as De GRaafshaff 6 of the bottom 7, (Harlem are one of the 7 lower teams) convincingly at home.
Harlem has lost 3-2 and 4-1 against the top 2 sides ( De Graaf are 3rd in the Dutch 2nd division)
NOT IN RUNNING
Anderlecht v kortrijk - 1.26 - unbeaten at home-last 3 home games by 2 clear goals - kortrijk can be difficult buggers away from home, having drawn 5 ,lost 1 and won 1 including a score draw away to 2nd side Club Brugge - Anderecht, though, have beaten Kortreijk at their gaff 2-0 which fits in to the 2-0 recent home wins. A tricky game to weigh up given the away side's impressive away form (or rather their ability to NOT get beaten away) - IN RUNNING
Sparta Rotterdam v PSV - unbeaten away from home and the only draws coming against top 5 sides, - fc twente beat Sparta 2-0 at home but SParta did beat Feyenoord 2-1 at home. I would look to a goals bet here rather than PSV as there could be a draw here.

SHORTLIST
The first 4 races all look very solid as place only potentials and for me the standout, probability wise, is Punchestowns is 1.15 to place and there is a clear 33/1 outsider leaving 3 fighting for 2 places.
NEGATIVES - not run since Cheltenham in March - not run over chase fences where nearest 2 rivals have
POSITIVES - Barry Geraghty onboard for Nicky Henderson. hurdling form is simply standout and a clear round should suffice.
1.2 over 1.5 goals in the PSV game has a chance of coming in with free scoring PSV

ONE A DAY
Either of the 2 mentioned above is good - the footy of course has no ground concerns or no debutants over obstacles. So Punchestowns at the odds of 1.15 / 1.16 looks the best probability race of the day but today I will definitely be following the racing and mentioned races above in the hope of doing and Ernst Blofeld like yesterday

26/11

Carbon copy of their game against Racing - 1-0 , early goal from Higuan. No Ronny starting meant no goals bet for me. Aeroplane -I took the 1.06 and he won with ease - rubbish odds but keeps the run going.
Enhanced bet? How about laying Hull 3-0 up at half time at 1.06?

Soccer > Hull v Everton : Match Odds

Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Hull	*	1.36	235.14	Back		83.75
Hull		1.06	300.00	Lay	25-Nov-09 20:47	-18.00
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	83.75
					Lay subtotal:	-18.00
					Market subtotal:	65.75
					Commission @ 4.4%:	2.89
					Net Market Total:	62.86

My outlay for this bet? £18 liability. Everton scored 2 and I got out at 1.36 ( could have got out at bigger odds but was umming and ahhing about whether to consider a 3rd Everton goal)
£62 profit for a £18 stake - nice
Enhanced bet Man Utd? In my articles I mention fancying the team before the off. This was effectively a dead rubber so when Besiktas scored, it didn't realy matter to United. That said, I did get involved in the 90th minute when the magic Fergie ability to distort time allowed 5 minutes more in the match.

1255 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Riverside Theatre, 7/4 Lady An Co, 7/1 Calusa Crystal, Captain Americo, 16/1 Al Co, 25/1 Gibbonsgrove.

DIOMED VERDICT: This should rest between Riverside Theatre, the clear pick on official hurdle ratings, and LADY AN CO, who has chasing experience and gets a handy weight allowance.

Under Barry Geraghty, Riverside is now odds on. Another newcomer over chase fences but strong connections 1.37 to place relays small field and ground - 2nd fav has great weight allowance

155 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Ernst Blofeld, 7/2 Another Display, Our Hero, 7/1 Rico Hombre, 33/1 Naval Hero, Phoenix Des Mottes, Young Yozza.

DIOMED VERDICT: A return to his best should see ERNST BLOFELD very hard to beat granted a clear round on his chasing debut.

3 can hopefuly be discounted here and Ernst has those trigger words from Diomed " hard to beat" -not run since March and 2 places is the niggle 1.31 to place and only 2 places

250 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sahrati, 9/2 Duke Of Lucca, 5/1 Synthe Davis, 8/1 Henry Hook, Scandal, 10/1 Exolthir, 12/1 Comehomequietly, 20/1 Spent, 33/1 Star King, 100/1 Galloise, Red Leaves.

DIOMED VERDICT: SAHRATI looks the one to be with after a pleasing hurdling debut at Bangor.

Alan King's are generally running well and Sahrati could be a good placer 1.17 to place

345 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Oscar Whisky, 6/1 Amroth Bay, 13/2 Eight Palms, 7/1 Rock On Ruby, 8/1 Tail Of The Bank, 10/1 Court In Motion, 12/1 Penylan Star, 14/1 Midnight Prayer, 16/1 Pere Blanc, 20/1 Citrus Mark, Medicine Man, 50/1 Real Tempo.

DIOMED VERDICT: OSCAR WHISKY could put his experience to good use.

2nd fav is out and Oscar is well thought of and a price gapper - not a jumps race but a bumper, and a word about the importance of the market with bumpers 1.18 to place

400 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Irish Music, 9/4 The Wee Chief, 11/2 Ride A White Swan, 12/1 Cullybackey, 16/1 Lunaticus, 25/1 Bella Fighetta, Oxbridge,

DIOMED VERDICT: IRISH MUSIC sets a fair standard and can take advantage of a more straightforward opportunity than last time.

3 places is great to see and makes this a race for the shortlist 1.13 to place

430 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Total Impact, 11/4 Misaro, 7/1 All About You, 10/1 Piazza San Pietro, 16/1 Peopleton Brook, 33/1 Desert Dust, Mr Rio, Valentino Swing, 50/1 Tadlil, 66/1 Brazilian Brush.

DIOMED VERDICT: bMISARO is 1-3 over C&D with his win coming in impressive fashion and he can upset likely favourite Total Impact over this trip.

Saw with Aeroplane that an extremely strongly fancied favourite in a claimer looks worth following - Total impact the one? 1.22 to place

FOOTBALL
Napoli the shortest priced of those involved in the Italian Cup 1.32
TENNIS - with all of the big boys playing each other, surely trading is the way to go. The fluctuations in the Nadal v Davydenko match had traders drooling

SHORTLIST
155 UTTOXETER - follow Diomed's confidence in Ernst Bloefeld? Only 2 places though
345 NEWBURY - Oscar Whiskey is the mover in the bumper but we are at a disadvantage making a decision now as these bumpers revolve around the market
400 KEMPTON - Irish Music is one of 3 under 20/1 and 1.13 to place and 3 places - looks a great probability race

ONE A DAY
Looks to be Irish Music at time of writing - only 4 to beat to place in the 1st 3

25/11

Arsenal were the right choice yesterday with a 2-0 win and a welcome 1.31 which, for me and one a day, is a BIG price!!
Again, the horses proved difficult but following the market brought up a couple of likely selections in Sunnyhillboy and Behindcloseddoors but I stayed with the Arse .
Again today, ground is a concern so my focus may be on the football again, so a quick look at likely contenders tonight.
2pm Anorthosis v Ayia Napa 1.08 - Cypriot cup game - only match odds available and not in running
1230 - Croatian Cup sees Dinamo Zagreb 1.25 away from home - again not in running but known by reputation for goals. Concern that Croatian games may be open to fixing
Bayern Munich 1.26 this evening at home against Maccaibi Haifa - it's out of Bayern's hands but they do need to do their part and win this evening. Concern that they have not won at home in 3 ( those with glasses half full will see this as a sequence that can end -they are priced to end it at least)
If backing Bayern, I would have liked Robben and Ribery to both play, at least Ribery is out and is a big blow.
Low on confidence, this is another of those Liverpool type games of yesterday BUT motivation is a factor for Bayern - they simply must win and achieve a better result than Bordeaux against Juventus.
Man Utd 1.38 - no real motivation here as United have qualified and Besiktas can't. United fielding the nippers and may be an over 1.5 goal game to trade rather than back an unmotivated United. That said, Fergie is a winner !
No wonder Real are 1.14 as Ronny is due to return against FC Zurich. Watching Real though, it is a head scratcher how they have been travelling - too much baggage I think. Should be goals here and with that famous dodgy defence, Zurich could actually score. Looks the banker of the night for me as long as the unreliable Real play Ronaldo - 1.11 over 1.5 goals.
Good news is that Real NEED to win. This will either be a rout or a nerve jangling 1-0!!

1220 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cruise Director, 9/4 Heraldry, 11/4 Laborec, 10/1 Railway Park, 16/1 Calfraz, 33/1 Carlton Mac, Karathaena, Mistral De La Cour, Our Spring.

DIOMED VERDICT: The consistent CRUISE DIRECTOR can follow up a recent win in similar company.

4 to concentrate on here? Soft ground means we need to look for horses proven on soft and heavy - Heraldry fits the bill here as proven in heavy and soft Cruise is 1.28 to place , Heraldry 1.58 to place

1230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Todber, 9/2 Partner, 6/1 Cheap Thrills, Titus Gent, 8/1 Mambo Spirit, 10/1 Agnes Love, Suhayl Star, 14/1 Dakota Hills, Doctor Hilary, Yankee Storm, 33/1 Miss Hollybell.

DIOMED VERDICT: CHEAP THRILLS ran well against a pace bias last time and is taken to beat Mambo Spirit.

Mambo now 9/4 and all red - money for the horse? 1.62 to place - take a risk and follow the gamble? Yankee storm another bi mover into 4/1

120 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cunning Clarets, 7/1 Birch Hill Bedouin, Kosta Brava, Waldo Winchester, 8/1 Beamazed, 10/1 Lightening Rod, 12/1 Boyoboy, 14/1 Donny Briggs, Jack The Gent, 20/1 Alfie Bet, Another Dark Rum, Flash Harriet, Strawgate, 25/1 Not Talking, 33/1 Papa Drew, 66/1 Landofgreenginger.

DIOMED VERDICT: Bumper winner BIRCH HILL BEDOUIN showed a good attitude to win his bumper last time and, although it wasn't the strongest of contests, he is the type to do well over jumps.

13/8 - - - - 7/1 the fav in the live market but is a debutant to hurdling 1.43 to place

130 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Aeroplane, 6/1 Rioliina, 10/1 Flawed Genius, Monashee Rock, 20/1 Ever Cheerful, 66/1 Double Valentine, 100/1 Bluebird Chariot, Incy Wincy.

DIOMED VERDICT: AEROPLANE is not the most straightforward but, in this company, hard to avoid.

Nice opportunity - no obstacles or ground concerns but one concern is the beret wearing Frank onboard who could get a horse in a one horse race unplaced . The straight 8 runners here 1.32 win and 1.07 place

325 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Magot De Grugy, 9/4 Dusk, 4/1 Guitar Rory, 10/1 Afistfullofpebbles, Massini Sunset, 12/1 Mr Prickle.

DIOMED VERDICT: MAGOT DE GRUGY will relish conditions and can defy this likeable mark.

Dusk a non runner and MAgot has form on soft and heavy which is great - 2 places though. Incidentally, look at Dusk's form - 3 wins and then pulled up. I laid him yesterday as it's douby hard to carry on winning when you are in handicap chases and handicap hurdles in soft ground!! Something to look for this jumps season
1.34 to place in an illiquid market
900 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mourad, 6/1 Great Wisdom, 7/1 Funatfuntasia, 10/1 Chapter Nine, Love Pegasus, Monteriggioni, 12/1 Ebaziyan, 14/1 Grantsville, Western Rose, 16/1 Balakan, Lesoto Diamond, 20/1 Inquisitive Look, Silent Wind, 25/1 Tajweed,

Mourad is a name I know from somewhere but can't place it at the moment - price gapper for the all conquerin Mullins yard 1.25 to place in an iliquid market

SHORTLIST

Chance on Dinamo Zagreb away in the Cup? Only match odds and not in running - would have preferred in running as there should be goals
Bayern 1.26 - need the win and I always like to back teams with motivation to win and priced to win.Big concern is lack of confidence and home form, BUT poor home form could be halted with a win.
Real Madrid 1.14 to win looks good - motivated to win tonight, 1.11 over 1.5 goals -1.36 for over 2.5 goals would be a great tradeable bet this evening, even more so with Ronaldo returning(if he does this evening)
The clues are there - +2.5 goals handicap market and correct score 2 market. BUT fresh in my mind is the poor performance at shorter odds against Alcorcan. I would love to see Higuan play as well as he has goalscoring form.
130 LINGFIELD - Aeroplane should win with ease - chance at 1.32 the win market? Concern is the jockey as he has engineered miraculous unplaced runs in the past. 1.07 for the safer 3 places
325 CHEPSTOW - magot de grugy is good in conditions but only 2 places - 1.34 to place
ONE A DAY
Aeroplane is utra safe I would suggest as long as the jockey tries on him.The straight 8 and 3 places make this an ideal place only race albeit at bad odds.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.36 looks to have an excellent chance of coming in , or at least being tradeable with Real needing to win, and the possible return of Ronaldo. Real win market at 1.14 looks safer
Bayern should win this evening at 1.26 - Maccaibi's recent 1-0 defeats show they can be tough to break down but 3-0 was the recent head to head

SO, solid looks to be Aeroplane - yes crap odds and "um Betty" onboard-take the medicine and move on to tomorrow - no ground or obstacles concerns
BETTER ODDS - Real 1.14 win and 1.11 over 1.5 goals look very safe ,even better Real 1.36 over 2.5 goals to trade only(I would entertain over 2.5 goals if Ronaldo plays)
So take your pick and good luck