30/10

Ashkazar was the rock solid bet of the day and came home with minimum fuss.
Todber was 4th by 2 lengths but my 1.10 trade on that was hit so no profit and no loss there.
I wish I'd followed my instincts and went with SPain under 17's - the price 1.41 was very enticing and they duly went 2 goals up quickly
Jose kept his home record with an exciting 5-3 win for Inter
A 4 timer from Dettori yesterday - another wish! Wish I'd backed Godolphin yesterday!
1240 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Mawzoon, 5/1 Asraab, 6/1 Imperial Delight, 8/1 Beaumont´s Party, Ghazwah, May Chorus, 10/1 Hajjaan, 12/1 Illustrious Prince, 16/1 Tell Halaf, 20/1 Billie Jean, Decency, 25/1 Compton Way, State Gathering, 40/1 Hallucinating, 50/1 Gojeri, 66/1 Brody´s Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: Illustrious Prince may prove the pick of those who have raced but it will be no surprise if the winner comes from among the newcomers, with ASRAAB and Mawzoon particularly interesting.

Hold that last thought - it's Frankie on Asraab backed into favouratism despite being a debutant ( didn't stop them yesterday) 1.5 to place

115 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Quick Wit, 11/4 Youm Jamil, 11/2 Man Of Action, 12/1 Kajima, Uphold, 14/1 Awsaal, 16/1 King´s Warrior, 20/1 Kakatosi, Scarboro Warning, 25/1 Battle Honour, Pittodrie Star, 33/1 Trovare, 40/1 Brigadoon, 50/1 Beauchamp Yeoman, Huff And Puff, Micky P, Vumbura, 66/1 Blitzed,

DIOMED VERDICT: The betting can help point the way with the newcomers, but QUICK WIT and Youm Jamil, with experience behind them, may well dominate.

Quick wit again for Godolphin, has had 2 runs. 1.28 to place

150 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Puff, 6/1 Conniption, Queen´s Grace, 12/1 Amitola, Seeking Dubai, 14/1 Skylla, 16/1 Manx Miss, Tomintoul Singer, 20/1 Coin From Heaven, Roodle, 25/1 Jeanie Johnston, 66/1 Chaussini.

DIOMED VERDICT: PUFF (nap) stands out on her Cheveley Park fourth. Conniption is a decent each-way alternative.

Listed race and likely " to be hard to beat" is Puff 1.28 to place and remember listed races contain half decent competition

205 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bannville, 5/2 Chicago Outfit, 9/2 Ifandbutwhy, Railway Park, 33/1 Hugs Dealer, 40/1 Grey Dasler.

DIOMED VERDICT: BANNVILLE won't have to be Festival material to defy a penalty.

Simple 50/50 race - 2 will place, 2 won't 1.32 for McCoy's Bannville

630 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Dynasty, 6/1 Wit And Wisdom, 13/2 Masela, 8/1 Gearanai, 12/1 Bashir Biyoum Zain, One Set, 14/1 Croi Eile, Goddess Of Light, 16/1 The Glamour Cat, 50/1 Ebony Cat, Little Miss Muppet, Maid Of The Castle, Proceedwithcaution, Watson´s Fancy,

O'Brien/Murtagh on Dynasty price gapper 1.11 place but market illiquid

FOOTBALL
3pmGermany U17 v Honduras U17
1.25 and surely Ze germans should have too much? And it's in play
815 pm Porto v Belenenses
1.22 for Porto won all home matches, and have beaten teams around Belenenses in the table 3-0 and 3-1. Concern with Belenenses is their last 2 aways have been 1-1 and 0-0, the latter against Sporting, a team similar to Porto. A bit of bus parking then? - or 3 goals at least from the home side?
SHORTLIST
Porto - you make your choice here - look at Sporting 0 Belenenses 0 as a guide or Porto's 3-1 and 3-0 wins AWAY to teams on either side of Belenenses in the league -with their home form I would go with the latter and trade if they score first
German under 17's very enticing at 1.25 - motivation - they MUST WIN ,simple as that. Honduras ,though, have only lost 1-0 to both Nigeria and Argentina so can be pains to break down . But the motivation is there for the Germans -lose or draw and they are out of the World Cup. Win and they still hang on the thread of other results allowing them to go through
115 NMKT - of the Godolphin pair, Quick Wit has the experience and could be preferred
150 NMKT- Puff " clear form pick and likely to be hard to beat" - so says Diomed and I see those " hard to beat" words as a trigger 1.28 to place, only 3 under 12/1 and currently 11/10
ONE A DAY
I want to do a nailed on one a day and a bigger priced one a day as I keep throwing away good bets like Spain under 17 yesterday at 1.41 for Ashkazar at a piffling 1.08 ( BUT much more solid probability wise)
So my nailed on one a day? Not the Germans as Honduras only lost by a solitary goal. Porto look far more solid at 1.22 to trade out.Perhaps over 1.5 goals here at the same price which will involve both sides with a cover of 0-0 given that belenenses held Sporting at home 0-0

PUFF at 1.28 would be my bigger priced one a day ( just experiment mode at the moment)

of the horses, I would side with Dynasty in the 630 Dundalk to keep the strong record for Ballydoyle when their horses are fancied

So, bigger priced would be Puff
ONE A DAY would be Porto tonight to either back in the match odds and trade out after they hopefully score first or over 1.5 goals which involves both sides

!!

Cup football betting = motivation and Man City had that - they are taking this seriously. Job done
OPPORTUNITY = breaking news last night was that Bolton had some players out with swine flu, like Blackburn Rovers and with that news Chelsea suddenly became very attractive indeed and promptly spanked them. Flexibility should be a key to betting.
This flexibility was at hand in the 340 Musselburgh - the straight 8 reduced to 7 and still 3 places and Lost soldier 3 strong in the market. I place backed him given this NEW INFORMATION and he came 2nd - this flexibiity of course is not available when writing a blog (or trying to thanks to brilliant Irish broadband)
Something to bear in mind for those with the ability to follow the live betting
Enhanced bets? Just Celtic - backed them at 5.1 when a goal down but they didn't equalise. The great thing though was at 5.1 you don't have to risk too much to get a decent return should they equalise. I also layed Hearts when at 1.2 just incase there was a late equaliser. Still a value bet for a side 2/5 at the off to be backing them at 4/1.

130 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Pamak D´Airy, 5/4 Border Reiver, 14/1 Desert Maze, 25/1 Ellandshe.

DIOMED VERDICT: Winning hurdler PAMAK D'AIRY has accrued plenty of worthwhile chase form and rates the one to beat.

We'll get a lot of these race types during the jumps - seeming 2 horse races and interesting froma place only perspective given the likelihood of the front 2 dominating all things being equal of course. A beginners chase this one- 1.14 and 1.21 the front 2 to place in an illiquid market at time of writing

150 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Ashkazar, 6/5 Sunnyhillboy, 9/1 Oscar Royal, 20/1 Like A Duke.

DIOMED VERDICT: SUNNYHILLBOY is proven over the trip and can beat Ashkazar.

2nd fav out and of course Ashkazar is now 1/5 given main rival no longer playing.1.08 not to get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race must be considered despite the poor odds.

Been running in class 1's and a beginners chase -hurdles form in better company should ensure a smooth transition - not run since Cheltenham but Timmy Murphy retains the ride and knows the horse having ridden in his last outings

You'll see a couple of potential bets in maiden hurdles today that I have omitted. I see maiden hurdles really as laying propositions on shorties. It's a maiden and they have to go over obstacles!!

230 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Command Marshal, 2/1 Gobejolly, 8/1 Tantobie, 14/1 Graze On And On, West End Wonder, 20/1 Abbey Minster, Loom, Quick Man, Safin, 25/1 Witness Run, 33/1 Lewis´s World,

DIOMED VERDICT: GOBEJOLLY has shown ability over hurdles but looks the type to improve a good deal for her new and in-form connections. She's taken to beat Command Marshal.

There was a nice 14/1 winner for the 16/1 system yesterday and herre we have a contender in Abbey Minster, now 6/1 in places

310 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sirocco Breeze, 5/1 Beat The Bell, Spirit Of Sharjah, 7/1 Cumana Bay, Glow Star, 10/1 Red Somerset, 14/1 Beckermet, Desert Dreamer, 16/1 Salient.

DIOMED VERDICT: GLOW STAR, a triple winner in South Africa this year, has slipped to a fair mark and is worth siding with on this AW debut.

So consistent are Godolphin at present, that Sirocco must be accounted for here 1.48 to place

320 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Get Me Out Of Here, 4/1 Ballybach, 9/1 Civil Servant, 12/1 Rathrockscourt, The Darling Boy, 14/1 Southerness, 20/1 Brainwave, 25/1 Calaficial.

DIOMED VERDICT: GET ME OUT OF HERE has every chance of maintaining his unbeaten record.

Fav is out and the race is now 5 runners and still 3 places which is great news -good probability race this one - any horse to place has to only beat 2 to place - default selection is Ballybach who was the nearest to Get me in the betting forecast - 1.18 is a good price for a probability race such as this but with the perceived outsiders at only 9/1 this shows that none can be confidently discounted

400 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Chapel Flowers, 7/1 Persian Prince, 8/1 Panthers Run, Toulouse Express, 16/1 Chigorin, Monty´s Boy, 20/1 Copper´s Gold, Master Papa.

DIOMED VERDICT: CHAPEL FLOWERS made an impressive debut for Tim Vaughan last week and can defy a penalty

Now 1/2 - - - 7/1 - th best price gap of the day so far -the straight 8 so 3 places - 32 length winner last time out and a penalty t carry this time but the market likes Chapel's chances. 1.14 to place - 4 horses are 16/1 or bigger and hpefully play little part

410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Padmini, 5/1 Mirabella, Roxy Flyer, 7/1 Dubai Media, Evening Tale, 10/1 Faited To Pretend, Queen´s Envoy, 20/1 Mirror Lake, Sweet Clementine, 33/1 Allannah Abu, Celebrian, On Khee, Strait Street, 66/1 French Fantasy.

DIOMED VERDICT: The one that takes the eye is Godolphin's newcomer PADMINI, who is out of an Irish Oaks winner. Her stable has a tremendous record at this course and she can continue the good run of the yard.

Another Godolphin newcomer here with Frankie up - they don't always get it right though -one newcomer yesterday ran as green as grass and was well beaten - they are short by reputation - the likelihood is that the horse is going to run well but there's always that niggle with youngsters debuting 1.37 to place

420 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Star Of Angels, 7/1 Squinch, 12/1 Casual Garcia, 20/1 Son Of Flame, 25/1 Sazeilla, 40/1 Star Of Memory, 100/1 Iveragh Lad, Mrs Onc.

DIOMED VERDICT: STAR OF ANGELS should find this well within his compass.

Huge price gap here but remember what I said earlier about maiden hurdles!! Still his achievements when last seen is far better than his opponents - been running almost exclusively in class 1 and class 2 company
1.22 the win and 1.06 the place

530 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Todber, 10/1 Leading Edge, Yanza, 12/1 Charles Darwin, Mayoman, Milldown Story, Shakespeare´s Son, 14/1 Timber Treasure, 16/1 Golden Dixie, Loyal Royal, Perlachy, Romantic Queen, 20/1 Weekend Away.

DIOMED VERDICT: TODBER escapes a penalty for her recent win and will be hard to beat in this company.

A day for huge price gappers and here's Todber, who falls into my price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap system, and these have been suprememly consistent from a win and place perspective.1.35 to place

600 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Daniella De Bruijn, 6/1 Dontbugthebunny, 7/1 Alfalevva, Saint Thomas, Underworld Dandy, 10/1 Mary Helen, Noverre Over There, 14/1 Mary Celest, 20/1 Desert Aisling, Press To Reset, 50/1 As Brave As You, 66/1 Red Farasi, Typical Female.

DIOMED VERDICT: NOVERRE OVER THERE has a bit to find at the weights but looks sure to improve now asked to tackle this trip.

It doesn't rain but it pours! Another price gapper but I am put off by the class 2 year old claimer part!! 1.28 to place

FOOTBALL
Cup games rules need to be known before involvement as was seen with AZ Alkmaar yesterday - these cup games go into extra time and it was 2-2 full time which means AZ didn't have to sweat it to get a winner in full time.
Also Spanish Cup games are 2 legged affairs so no immediate urgency in 1st game for the giants. Pleasing to see BArca, though, win their match with a completely revamped side and Pedro looking first class striker
Do keep an eye out on the forums for late team news -as mentioned it was on the Betfair Forum where I found out about Bolton swine flu befoore Chelsea's game and reacted accordingly
Gaz Metan Craiova v CFR Cluj
1.31 away from home - I know Cluj from their Champions LEague early stage exploits - a handy team but we are battling with motivation factor and team news with all of these cup games and it's dooubly difficult with Eurpoean teams as compared with England
Thrasivoulos F. v AEK
1.37 away side- one of the bigger Greek side and Pana won yesterday - should give a good account - I would be happier laying Thras
U.A.E. U17 v Spain U17
1.41 away from home - now am I missing something - this is Spanish youth versus the ,erm, world footballing giants of the United Arab Emirates, 1.41 looks very tasty indeed. I believe this game is played in Africa so perhaps the UAE will be better used to conditions, but surely the Spanish boys set up must be far more professional and the players they can chosse surely have a better pedigree and training for the job.
Hobro v AaB
1.23 away side - Danish Cup
Dordrecht v Ajax
1.28 away side - this will probably go to extra time if a draw at full time so bear in mind the strong favs don't really have to bust a gut as they have the safety net of extra time
A team well known enough that we can check team news
Inter v Palermo
1.49 Inter - interesting stat from the Racing Post - Jose has not lost at home for 122 games - what a stat!! But Racing Post warn that Palermo are on a good run at present - this is a seria a fixture and not a cup game so will be full strength sides - Palermo 5 game unbeaten run and beat Juve at Palermo 2-0 which should sound a warning bell for the sides at the top of the league. It is the fact they can beat Juve which means they have the capability to be pains in the arses to Inter Milan tonight.
But dare we oppose Inter? I would lay opponents at home until this unbeaten home run ends
It is such an impressive stat


SHORTLIST
150 STRATFORD - Ashkazar has only one horse to beat to place but is priced - 1.08 -accordingly
320 STRATFORD - another great probability race with 5 runners and 3 places - I opted for Ballybach as the default choice as he was originally 2nd fav
400 NEWCASTLE - Chapel flowers expected to run very well under a penalty - 8 runners and 3 places
420 STRATFORD - Star of angels looks primed to win and the odds tell you s much
530 WOLVES -Todber is a classic price gapper in a 0-65 class 6 handicap and these are usually so consistent. There was a bit of 1.35 available to place which I thought was too high and I have taken it-I hope I have guaged the market right this time and the price reduces nearer the off. - jockey a slight concern but a look at his recent rides and he has placed at least in the last 4 races which is encouraging , so with a horse expected to win, he has a great chance today
UAE under 17 v Spain under 17 - 1.41 - just seems a huge price for me - concern that the youngsters of Spain played a lot with 10 men against the USA - how much will that have taken out of them in the African heat?
Dortrecht v Ajax - 1.28 - the away side are reknowned goalscorers but the key is the team this evening - 1.15 over 1.5 goals and tradeable
Inter v Palermo - 1.27 over 1.5 goals would be the call here given the potential threat of Palermo on recent form. If they score then it's a goal backers dream given that Inter, with that home record to maintain, shoould equalise.

ONE A DAY
Horse racing - mostly jumps today and as ever we have the potential of fallers to factor in. At time of writing I have already backed Todber to place at 1.35 and it is now 1.28 which is promising. I backed for £100 so if the price reduces to allow a 1.10 bet then I'll take it - I have 5 hourse or so!
150 STRATFORD - Ashkazar at 1.08 to place looks superb - needs a clear round and not to be beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race - crap odds but the strongest probability bet of the day. Better odds with Todber at near 1.28 putting faith in the class 6 0-65 handicap price gapper which has failed only once to place in months now.
Remember to factor in flexibility if you can follow the live markets and make your one a day choice that way.

28/10 RESEND 2

Broadband problems mean I might not be able to finish this today

Enhanced bets ahoy! Panseraikos v Olympiakos - Oly original 1.46 favourites for this cup game went 2-0 down. This time I layed Panseraikos as their price was 1.30 for £25 to win me £80 on Oly and the draw.
Oly equalised. Panseraikos's price increases to 1.88 and I green out for a £25 profit.
Happy days and there was another 20 minutes of the match left!
I didn;t get involved in the enhanced bet at 1-0 as it was a Greek Cup game but 2-0 meant a price with low outlay and potential good returns.
Another enhanced bet? How about IFK Goteborg who went 2-0 down. I duly backed them at 2-0 down and 2-1 down and got out at 2-2 ( it ended 2-2 so any traders out there - get out early!)
I backed Real MAdrid at 1000 when 4-0 down but they didn't recover. If there is a 2nd leg here, stick that in your note book I think! Goals should arrive.
The over 1.5 goals bet would have saved this game as well ( it is pretty much the same odds as backing Real Madrid in the match odds market yet includes, by default, both teams and thus captured the amazing 4-0 scoreline to Real's opponents)
Pandorama won as expected and what a market at the off. 1.45 to back to win and 1.32 to back to place. Alas Muggins here backed him just after I'd written the blog at 1.17 thinking this horse would be all the rage but I also had a nibble at 1.32 as well - couldn't resist.
Racing Hero was a superb trade - drifted out to 3 before the off and flirted with 2.1 or thereabouts in running allowing for a nice in running back to lay trade

Lesson from yesterday - it would seem that Spanish games are 2 legged so do be careful as there may be an element of slackness in round one by the big boys ( I guess to get bums on seats for the home leg!)

13:30

Jablonec vs Zivanice

1/12

Czech Cup here and mentioned simply because of the odds -on betfair and there was a bit at 1.20 and higher - not in running

16:00

Hajduk Split vs Moslavina Kutina

1/8

Croatian cup here and again mentioned based on odds

18:00

Werder Bremen vs Kaiserslautern

4/11

Goal scorers by design, Werder are in the German Cup so can they be arsed or can't they be arsed ( a la Madrid?)
In running so of interest if the team news for Werder is strong

19:30

Z.Waregem vs KSK Ronse

1/8

Belgian Cup

19:30

Hoffenheim vs Koblenz

1/5

german Cup

19:35

Celtic vs Hearts

2/5

Old Firm usually dominate the Cup

19:45

Manchester City vs Scunthorpe

1/5

Strength in depth at City now should ensure a victory with even a 2nd string side and at home?

19:45

Chelsea vs Bolton

1/3

Importance of Cup for Chelsea will be seen in the team news

21:00

Cultural Leonesa vs Barcelona

9/1

4/1

2/9

Surely Cultural Leonesa cannot beat Barca, let alone beat them 4-0, regardless of the Barca side put out? I saw the 2nd string in a friendly against Man City, and though they lost 1-0, they hit the woodwork with monotonous regularity.
7 pm - AZ Alkmaar v Spakenburg - 1.11 on Betfair - should Spankenburg Spakenburg (yet again, if they show any remote interest in a cup game)
7pm - Twente v Capelle - again should be an easy win but need to see teams
Given the apparent fix with Real Madrid last night ( sponsored by a bookmaker -there you go!)
goals would be he bet in the Barca game - 1.19 over 1.5 goals looks acceptable

110 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Palio Square, 4/1 Pytheas, 5/1 Psychic Ability, 13/2 Mountain Quest, 12/1 Florentine Ruler, Grande Saggio, 16/1 Across The Sea, Dandino, Donair, Joe Rua, 20/1 Hail Bold Chief, Sansili, 50/1 Dubawi King, Inshaallah, Lord Wheathill,

DIOMED VERDICT: PALIO SQUARE sets a decent standard on form, should relish the step up to 1m and his experience could prove decisive.

Only 5 under 20/1 and it is hoped the race revolves around these - if so then Palio Square could have a good place chance but what of Pytheas? Hard to win with for Johnston but places with regularity

115 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Some Present, Evs Sweeps Hill, 33/1 False Economy, Prince Of Fire.

4 runners and 2 under 50/1 means a 50/50 race and barring falls should be easy pickings for place backers

130 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Infanta, 2/1 Tatiana Romanova, 9/4 Brink, 20/1 Rubicon Bay, 25/1 Charity Fair, 33/1 Dead Womans Pass.

DIOMED VERDICT: Infanta would not have to be any great shakes to make a winning debut but preference is for TATIANA ROMANOVA.

Only 3 under 20/1 but which of the 3 will not place? Godolphin debutant must be accounted for too given their form

320 PUNCH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Jered, 9/2 Lenabane, 8/1 Betabob, Meadows Thyne, 10/1 Adajal, Darby´s Turn, 14/1 Askmeroe, 16/1 Crusher Run, Etcetera Etcetera, Up N Under, 20/1 All The Cousins, Rebel Royal, The Thirsty Bricky, 25/1 Know The Rules, Major Finnegan, 50/1 Brackets, Major Melody.

the 3rd beginners chase and short priced fav and the other 2 have booted home

350 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Tafaool, 5/1 Aspro Mavro, Big Bay, 10/1 Lastroseofsummer, 14/1 Altimatum, 20/1 Montego Breeze, 33/1 Big Whitfield, 50/1 Kabougg, 66/1 Lily Wood, 100/1 Bawdsey Bank, Floods Of Tears, Quadrifolio.

DIOMED VERDICT: TAFAOOL's reappearance third at Newmarket is easily the most persuasive evidence in this line-up.

Only 3 under 20/1

410 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Hawkeyethenoo, 6/1 Igoyougo, 10/1 Avertuoso, Distant Sun, Prince Namid, Wicked Wilma, 12/1 Ingleby Star, Peninsular War, 14/1 Killer Class, 20/1 Lesley´s Choice, Mandarin Spirit, 25/1 Sandwith,

DIOMED VERDICT: HAWKEYETHENOO (nap) has thrived since being dropped in trip for current connections and he's capable of adding to last week's Ayr success, despite his penalty. Class 5 0-75 handicap price gapper 650 KEMP BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Looby Loo, 11/8 Wake Up Call, 8/1 Abbashinko, 12/1 Nativity, 25/1 Clever Omneya, 40/1 Athboy Auction, 50/1 Cativo, Sandy Par. DIOMED VERDICT: Wake Up Call has shown fair form in two starts on turf but LOOBY LOO, who has more speed in her pedigree, seems likely to be better suited by this sharp 6f and should improve on her promising debut. Straight 8 and 3 places and 2 clear market leaders ONE A DAY THe broadband is playing havoc with my work today and this is very late. 600 Werder Bremen - over 1.5 goals looks good and its in running - 1.16 involves both teams 745 - Man City v Scunny - even 2nd string City should have too much and perhaps they want to put down a marker in this new season of money 1.14 over 1.5 goals and 1.2 match odds 115 PUNCH - this must involve 2 horses from the 4 bar accidents but 1.06 and 1.07 tells you as much As this is rushed thanks to broadband or lack of, I can't really look i depth at horses. For me Man City to beat Scunny looks the call and over 1.5 goals at 1.14 involves both sides

27/10

I don't know what's happened at Benfica but another 6 goal haul for them yesterday to add to previous 6 goal and 8 goal scorelines. A team to follow on the overs market until the goals dry up.
Racy's 3rd place was perfect for place only backers and Godolphin continued their superb end to the flat campaign with 17/2 , 13/2 and 8/11 winners

European Cup games tonight -are they all Carling Cup equivalent?
Eintrecht Trier v FC Koln 1.5 - Bundelsliga opponens away from home. Will be a weelcome distraction from a poor league start for Koln.As ever, today, across Europe, how seriously are these teams taking any Cup game?
IFK Goteborg v Hamsteds - 1.28 - a league match this one and unbeaten at home where they have only failed to score 2 goals on one occasion. HAve scored 2 or more against teams at the foot of the table wherre Hamstads is. 0-0 head to head away to Hamstads may signal teir defensive intent.
Motivation? One point behind Solna at the head of the league - a must win for Goteborg to go on top, albeit briefly, and put the pressure on Solna to reciprocate when they play.
7pm - Athletico Ciudad v Sevilla 1.45 away - Spanish Cup game and team news vital for Sevilla who ,with a full time, will tear this lot apart.
7pm- Standard v Lierse - 1.31 - another Cup game and a strong home side ( 1st teamers) should win
730 - Nantes v laval - 1.68 - with Le Havre winning last time, nantes are priced to respond in this league fixture - word of caution - Laval beat Le HAvre away from home and I put Nantes on a par with them. Majority of Nantes games go over 2.5 goals and ,if in running, this could be a nice neutral bet including both sides. Also, possible enhanced bet as Laval have schown they can score away from home
745 - Barnsely v Man Utd - Fergie couldn't give a rat's arse about this cup -1.5 tells you team news has been factored in. Any involvement will be determined by strength of Man Utd side
745 - Dundee v Rangers - 1.55 - Scottish Cup - you saw with the 1.48 quoted about Rangers at home at the weekend that this signalled a tough match and so it proved. 1.55 away from home means this will be equally so.Dundee are no longer premier league status but this Cup game will, again, hinge on teams chospm - n
Feyenoord v Den Bosch - 1.23 - Dutch Cup game and Feyenoord have goals in them
8pm - Spurs v Everton 1.78 - I would look to goals here as both teams may experiment with their sides
9pm -Alcorcan v Real Madrid - 1.49 - rarely will you see Real Madrid at 1/2 against an unknown side ,and this belies the fact that the team is likely to be fringe players ( although horse face might get a run out?)

One reader made an interesting point. By opting for over 1.5 goals instead of backing a short odds team to win, w are, by default, including BOTH sides as we are betting on goals. BOTH sides are searching for goals and are playing FOR us. This is something to think about. I term this a " neutral " bet as you are not hoping one team only scores. This would have profitted in the famous Barca v Rubin kazan game for example

110 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Longliner, 4/1 Commissionaire, Sarrsar, 6/1 Solicitor, 12/1 Soho Theatre, 20/1 Doyenne Dream, 40/1 Strike A Deal, Wavertree Bounty, 66/1 Ava Doll, 100/1 Astromoon, Firefly Mustique,

DIOMED VERDICT: The newcomers should be monitored closely in the betting but the one to beat is LONGLINER who shaped nicely on his debut and is the only runner with a Group-race entry (the Derby)

Only 5 under 25/1 and a price gapper now 4/7 - but as usual it's a maiden - he's only had one run and their are some hot potential debutants in opposition 1.11 to place

140 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 London Stripe, 7/2 Mass Rally, 9/2 Swift Return, 13/2 Lileo, 9/1 Notice Given, 11/1 En Fuego, 12/1 Bondage, Eye Of Eternity, 14/1 Seamster, 40/1 No Complaining, 66/1 Astrovenus, 150/1 Dovedon Diva.

DIOMED VERDICT: Mass Rally and Swift Return command some respect on paper but the once-raced LONDON STRIPE, whose trainer has won three of the last five renewals of this contest, probably has greater potential.

Again it's that word " potential" and London Stripe, a son of Rock of Gibraltar, is fancied here 1.22 to place

210 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Landowner, 9/2 Dormer Fleet, Scottish Boogie, 13/2 Pictures, 10/1 Hellenio, 12/1 Amno Dancer, 14/1 Emma Dora, Rosedale, 66/1 Carlcol Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: Landowner is progressing nicely and could take plenty of beating under a penalty but SCOTTISH BOOGIE is an interesting alternative on his nursery debut.

more 2 year olds but Godolphin at head of the market and they cannot be ignored in current form 1.2 to place

240 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Vito Volterra, 9/2 Ibmab, 5/1 Ragsta, Whipperway, 8/1 Little Perisher, Pearl Of Kent, 10/1 Rufus Roughcut, 16/1 Better Be Blue, 20/1 Chorus Boy, 28/1 Cygnet Committee, Mrs Puff, 40/1 Walnut Rise, 66/1 Man In The Mirror.

DIOMED VERDICT: There isn't a great deal between several of these on paper and the marginal verdict goes to RAGSTA who was beaten only inside the last furlong in a 1m nursery here last week.

A 2 year old claimer and only of interest for the move for the fav into 6/4 -----6/1 but a race for me of little appeal 1.44 to place

310 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hayzoom, 11/2 Lion Mountain, Parvaaz, 13/2 Bullet Train, Egyptology, Snoqualmie Star, 8/1 Comradeship, 14/1 Sory, 25/1 Kathleen Frances, 40/1 Zenarinda, 66/1 Flag Of Glory.

DIOMED VERDICT: There are several well-bred newcomers who could prove up to the task and the betting should be revealing. HAYZOOM, the only runner with a Pattern-race entry, is one of the likelier sorts.

lion Mountain now 7/4 and Bullet train 2/1 - both debutants and both 2 year olds (again!)

Lion is the Godolphin horse and I have already highlighted their strong form at present 1.29 and 1.36 to place illiquid markets so may rise

325 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Pandorama, 5/1 Clan Tara, 6/1 Mick The Man, 7/1 Oligarch Society, 10/1 Square Sphere, 12/1 Model Athlete, Power Of Attorney, Yes Ben, 14/1 Adenauer, Fort George, Shan Ros, 20/1 Canal Bank, Saddlers Storm, 25/1 Borolee, Winterdown Star, 33/1 Supreme Seabird, Two Jackets Joe, 50/1 Alwaysandforever,

A group 1 and group2 novice hurdle winner, albeit in small fields, making his chasing debut today and like Dunguib, looks to be a better horse class wise than the opposition. Now 2/5 and soft ground but has won on soft and heavy 1.16 to place

410 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Racing Hero, 7/2 Deportment, 6/1 Too Tall, 8/1 Starkat, 17/2 Green Agenda, 9/1 Naheell, 10/1 Panto Princess, 25/1 Group Leader, Mt Kintyre.

DIOMED VERDICT: RACING HERO was firmly back on track when making all and winning well at Doncaster on Saturday. A similar display should make him tough to beat under his penalty with potential improver Deportment the main threat.

4 length front running win under this jockey last time. Penalty to carry but fancied to be competitive again 1.35 to place - I have the feeling that if Frankie does his front running today which was so successful last time, that both the win and place prices will fall incrementally as the race progresses. 2.72 to back to win, and to nick ourselves a 1.2 equivalent bet ,we only need the horse to hit 2.52 in the win market.
This is a bet where I would back now, and place my lay bet at 2.45 ( to compensate for greening up on all selections) and hope that Dettori gets the horse out in front for sufficient time to allow the price to shorten in running


425 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Vertige Dore, 3/1 Summit Meeting, 7/2 Perfect Smile, 8/1 Val San Vito, 10/1 Get It On, 12/1 Al Ferof, Vardas Partner, 14/1 Age Benefit, Burgundy Boy, 16/1 Courtly Conduct, Ragdoll, 20/1 Bramley Man, Sonic Beat, 25/1 Rebel Princess, Wango.

Paddy Power has this one at 8/11 and it's there by reputation - the Mullins yard - no Ruby on board though and this is a bumper so there might be some likely ones at bigger prices here.28 to place

SHORTLIST

It's a difficult day today under both codes. In the football, almost exclusively we are greeted with Cup games and the sensible thing to do in all of these games is to wait for team news on the fancies.
This holds true for Sevilla, Real madrid, Man Utd and Rangers - we cannot select any team just yet as we do not know the team news. Real Madrid would be the most interesting for me given their apparent strength in depth and big price of 1.49 given their opponents are relatively unknown - a strong side and I'll be on
From a horse racing perspective, it's pretty much 2 year old races, maidens, claimers and nurseries - and we simply cannot put maximum faith in 2 year olds as by their very nature they're still learning.
1) IFK GOTEBORG V HAMSTADS - this would be my first pick today as this is a league match and the home team are very motivated to get to the top of the league, which they will do with a win. A cover of 0-0 if I was backing , given recent head to heads, and perhaps a visit to over 1.5 goals? 1.25 over 1.5 goals and 21 for correct score 0-0 which means if you backed over 1.5 goals for £100 you would need to back correct score 0-0 for £5.50
2)NANTES V LAVAL - over 1.5 goals again here given Laval's shock win at Le Havre last time. nantes have almost exclusively managed 2 goals a game and this is another league match so no question marks regarding weakened teams and lack of motivation - NOT IN RUNNING
3) 110 YARMOUTH - Longliner was 1 length 3rd placed last time out, has the hint of a Hard to beat selection, and has a group entry ( so well thought of). Ryan Moore in the plate, only 5 under 20/1 so hopefully a lot of deadwood here.Drop in class to class 5
And now the negatives - 2 year old maiden race - Strike a deal and Astromoon potential market movers at big prices - only had the one run and automatically expected to reproduce that form ( and this cannot be guaranteed with any 2 year old)
1.11 to place is strong in the place market
4) 325 PUNCHESTOWN - Pandorama has done it over hurdles at the highest level and begins his chasing career as red hot favourite ( and why not - wins in group 1 and group 2 company over hurdles attest to the horse's strong formlines)
Has not been out since February 2009 and we saw with Dunguib last time, he may be a little keen in the early stages and this may produce the odd mistake.
1.16 to place is reasonable given the quality of the horse but note that he has not been out recently and takes on a new code today. Still, THE horse in the field
5) 410 YARMOUTH - Racing hero is interesting, if only from a trading angle. As explained above I would seek to back in the win market, hope Frankie reverts to front running tactics, and get out at a prearranged price To create a 1.20 return with £100, I would back at 2.74 for £100 and lay off at 2.28 for £120.74
2.28 is a little short and it's quite a move down to that price -that's a slight niggle - a risky bet if the horse does not run well early. Hinges purely on the tactics this bet and the anticipation of front running

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1)The one footy game of interest at time of writing ( this will change of course as team news for the teams mentioned in the cup games becomes available) is the Goteborg game. We have the important Motivation factor here in this league game and I would go for over.1.5 goals with a cover of the 0-0 correct score in the betfair market incase there is a replay of their last head to head. This takes the 1.25 bet down to 1.20 in real terms . The match is in running and the hope is for an early goal.
2) Real Madrid of great interest if seeing strong team news
3)325 PUNCHESTOWN - Pandorama is head and shoulders above this lot and w have to overcome an absence and a change to chase fences today. Soft ground is no concern on past form for this group winner and this is likely to be a return on the start of a campaign which will take in the big races over the coming months culminating at Cheltenham.1.16 at present and my confidence is based on those group 1 wins

ONE A DAY
It's such a difficult day today - nothing solid and all based on "potential" and team news in the footy. At time of writing, I think Pandorama should place ,but there's risks with this bet too - a long absence and new code, but I hope croup 1 and group2 winning form cement some class to the horse.
If you don't fancy this ( it is not really a solid nailed on one a day bet given the niggles) then hold out for team news this evening and get on the one with a solid looking team ( my eye is firmly on Real Madrid this evening