Monday 21 September 2009

21/9

1st minute goal calmed nerves yesterday in Real Madrid game and late 2nd half was when they secured a comfortable 5-0 win ( I went for 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 dutch on footy blog )
Short odds but nailed on. Dinamo Zagreb better odds of 1.25 and 7-0 win - but I was put off by Croatian league

210 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sand Skier, 11/4 Exceedingly Bold, 9/2 Excellent Vision, 6/1 Tatiana Romanova, 10/1 Celendine, 16/1 Shayla, 25/1 Chookie Avon, 33/1 Goodison Goal, 100/1 Clayton Flick.

DIOMED VERDICT: Sand Skier and EXCEEDINGLY BOLD have accomplished easily the most of those that have run, but watch out also for the newcomers.

Johnston odds on fav at a Scorrish track. BUT is a maiden and there are some debutants-1.11 to place and stronger now in the live market

230 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dahaam, 4/1 Get A Grip, 5/1 Tom Wade, 10/1 Argaum, 14/1 King´s Realm, Persona Non Grata, 20/1 Foxtrot Foxtrot, Highland Quaich, 33/1 Dubai Phantom, The Love Guru, 66/1 High On A Hill.

DIOMED VERDICT: Experience can count and DAHAAM gets the nod ahead of Get A Grip.

Only 3 under 16/1 here and Godolphin favourite having only the one run under his belt - always a risk with these 2 year olds regardless of whether Frankie is onboard - 1.14 to place

240 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Prescription, 4/1 Fesko, 11/2 Crystal Moments, 6/1 Midnight Fantasy, 7/1 Sakhee´s Pearl, 9/1 Vitoria, 12/1 Kerrys Requiem, 14/1 Rothesay Dancer, 20/1 Suzie Quw, 40/1 Knavesmire.

DIOMED VERDICT: PRESCRIPTION may need some rain but is a fascinating contender if the ground is suitable.

Sir Mark Prescott handicap fav -watch out for the ground as it is Scotland - 1.27 to place and 7 runners and 3 places, but with the outsider at only 12/1 this looks competitive enough

410 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Passkey, 3/1 Oneofapear, 11/2 Cool Baranca, 6/1 Ettrick Mill, 12/1 Lion Road, 50/1 Trade Price, 66/1 Haunting, Mister Biscuit.

DIOMED VERDICT: PASSKEY looks to have a good opportunity.

Only 2 under 10/1 here and Passkey edging towards 1/2 here. Has the experience under the belt - 32 form is progressive and hints at a place 1.06 to place is very short

420 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Circumvent, 5/2 Muwalla, 4/1 Tominator, 13/2 Flipping, 11/1 Truly Magic, 25/1 Rainsborough.

DIOMED VERDICT: There's a lot to like about CIRCUMVENT who is a nice type physically, has shown a willing attitude on both starts and should have plenty more progress in him.

4 runner race and 3rd and 5th fav out. 50/50 race -4 runners and 2 places and the outsider can hopefully be discounted 1.2 to place in effectively a 3 horse race - head and a short head 1st and 2nd augurs well - 7/1 and 16/1 opponents - will Circumvent find 2 horses to beat him in a 4 horse race?

510 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Milton Of Campsie, 4/1 Town And Gown, 7/1 Caribbean Coral, 8/1 Dalarossie, Lambency, 14/1 Howards Tipple, 16/1 Andrasta, Berrymead, Highly Acclaimed, Rainbow Bay, 25/1 Coconut Moon, Kheylide, Nabra.

DIOMED VERDICT: Town And Gown was an eyecatcher last week but has never won and ready preference is for MILTON OF CAMPSIE.

Class 6 0-65 handicap here and not a typical price gapper but a hint of a price gap, and Fallon onboard might be the place only clincher 1.65 to place is a tad big

FOOTBALL
The key with the football shorties is to try and determine whether the short price is justified
19:00 Kasimpasa vs Galatasaray 9/1 7/2 1/4
5 wins out of 5 for Gala, with 2 away wins at 3-2 and 2-0
16 goals scored in 5 games
Kasimpasa in stark contrast have lost 5 out of 5 games, conceding 12 goals. Only conceded 1 goal last game -a change to a more defensive set up as a result of previous maulings?
Could Gala be on the end of an ultra defensive performance?
Looks a complete mismatch this- team news would be important 1.26 for Gala to win would be approached via trading after hopefully they make the breakthrough.
20:15 Sporting Lisbon vs Olhanense 2/9
2 wins, a draw and a loss to Braga ( not a great shock as Braga look good this early season) COncern with a lack of goals for Sporting, recent win was 1-0.
Opponents are draw specialists, drawing 2 away from home this season, drawing one at home and winning one at home.Solid enough but we do not know the merit of these results given they have not faced Benfica, Sporting, porto or Braga yet.
My concern is that Olhanense seem to play defensive away from home, coupled with generally unconvincing scoring from Sporting, leading to a potential frustrating match.
Positives , Olhanense's form is dubious against rivals far weaker than Sporting. Sporting have home advantage.
Not as solid as Galatasary at first glance
SHORTLIST
Galatasary look correctly priced at 1.26 to get something from this away game. Concern from a sequencing perspective, =they will lose eventually and home side will stop losing some time
210 HAmilton - Sand Skier represents Mark Johnston who has done well with his juveniles when they're fancied but 1.11 does not give too much away ( compare this 1.11 with Real madrid yesterday and tell me which was /is the safer bet!!)
420 LEICESTER - Circumvent is involved in a 50/50 4 horse race where the original outsider when it was 6 runners is still involved and can hopeully play no part. This could be a 3 horse race vying for 2 places, and 1.21 is enticing if we think 2 horses will NOT beat Circumvent

ONE A DAY
A case can be made for all today
Sand Skier - strong support for this one - 42 form for a 2 year old maiden shows experience - BUT he is a 2 year old maiden - there are some debutants in opposition
Circumvent - again we are dealing with damn 2 year olds again in this novice stakes event, and I really ddon't like 2 year olds as they are, of course, still learning and their ability to replicate previous form must be taken on trust , but from a probability perspective will he get beaten by 2 others in a 4 horse race?
Galatasary are 5 from 5 and the home team have lost 5 in 5 games
I'll chance time order today and hope those at 25/1 or bigger play no part, and this becomes a 5 horse race where Sand Skier can ,at least place with Joe Fanning back onboard


1 comment:

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