Saturday 19 September 2009

19/9

Espero did take advantage of the favourite's absence in the 820 Wolves . As it happened, autacity of hope won, pires placed, Mr Mannaman won and Verdant placed
225 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Brief Look, 4/1 Cascata, 5/1 Anice Stellato, 6/1 Storyland, 7/1 Arcola, 10/1 Valmari, 16/1 It´s Dubai Dolly, 25/1 Bassinet.

DIOMED VERDICT: Anice Stellato settled much better without the blinkers last time and is respected but BRIEF LOOK has done nothing but progress all summer and is the call.

down to 7 runners and Brief Look is fancied and could place 1.27 to place

235 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Beyond Desire, 15/2 Conniption, 8/1 Jeanie Johnston, 9/1 Music Show, 12/1 Midnight Martini, 16/1 Astrophysical Jet, 20/1 Amary, 25/1 Distinctive, Hairspray, She´s A Character, 50/1 Eternal Instinct, 66/1 Catbells, 200/1 Classlin,

DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to get away from BEYOND DESIRE. Conniption looks the best each-way alternative.

Whiff of a "HTB " selection about this one but a competitive affair 1.21 to place

355 LISTOWEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Archie Boy, 9/4 Emmpat, 7/2 The God Of Love, 8/1 The Tin Soldier, 12/1 Sarteano, 20/1 Oran Flyer, 33/1 Leap O´Faith, 50/1 Crested Pochard, 66/1 Dawn Ledgend.




Only 4 under 25/1 and Walsh did it yesterday with Pires 1.12 to place

410 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Great Art, 5/1 Miss Kittyhawk, 13/2 Steel Stockholder, 10/1 Magic Queen, 11/1 That´s All, 12/1 Business Class, 50/1 Port Ronan, 66/1 Billy Cadiz.

DIOMED VERDICT: GREAT ART sets a decent standard for a yard which is 1-2 with 3yos here in recent years and should be hard to beat.

Great Art is now 1/3 in places - and those magic words " hard to beat " -I know there's no logic to this but when I see those words the selections tend to place at least - NOTE -3 places and 1.07 to place

435 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Critical Moment, 5/1 Lay Claim, Rasmy, 10/1 Beaumont´s Party, Colonel Carter, 14/1 Celtic Ransom, Viviani, 16/1 Painswick, Vimiero, 33/1 Optimistic Duke, 50/1 Baoli, Shamir, 66/1 Take My Hand, 200/1 Daryainur.

DIOMED VERDICT: Not a lot of form to go on but CRITICAL MOMENT looked a certain future winner when third on his debut at Newmarket and it will take a useful newcomer to lower his colours.

MArket extremely important here as a lot of debutants - price gapper fav is a price gapper who has only had the one run but apparently looked a certain future winner 1.33 to place

FOOTBALL
BAyern v Nurnberg - 1.23 to win at home. I would love to see Robben and Ribery. I think they are both superb and should provide ample ammunition for the front line
Early draws albeit against top sides, have found their scoring boots last 2 games
Nurnberg have been poor, one win was 1-0 last game - interestingly 2 draws away from home could signal defensive set up, but to be honest they have not met any team of Bayern's quality yet.
Arsenal 1.25 v Wigan. Mustbe buoyant ater their comeback midweek
I would be looking to the Man Utd 5-0 win as a guide today - given Arse should have beaten Man Utd at Old Trafford
Juve 1.33 v Livorno - 3 out of 3 for Juve and a couple of draws for Livorno, most notably v AC Milan last time out
I have tended to avoid Juve in the past as they tended not to score much, but seem to have turned a corner
Barca 1.33 v Athletico - won both games so far and Athletico have been below par this term, expect Barca to make the breakthough and ideal for trading for me

SHORTLIST
355 LISTOWEL - Archies Boy looks poised to place here for Ruby here on good ground ( Light showers around here at the moment)
1.12 to place is an illiquid price
410 Catterick - 3 places and 6 runners make this a 50/50 race and 1.07 reflects the chance of Great Art
Bayern with a trade if they score first for me looks good - really have scored bucket loads last 2 games and home advantage should see them scoring first hopefully

Arsenal at 1.25 should reflect what Man utd did to Wigan who have been poor and will striggle against the big boys

ONE A DAY
Saturdays, you would think, would open up solid opportunities in the horse racing,and I suppose the 2 shortlisters are good enough. I would prefer Great Art here in a 50/50 race and 1.07 reflects the obvious chance. Will a 1/3 shot get beaten by 3 others in a 6 horse race?
Football wise, Bayern and Arsenal are strong and will be taken with a trading perspective in mind ( I will decide based on how the teams perform if I can follow them)
So nailed on looks like Great Art, at a price reflective of this
BUT a chance, at better odds can be taken with bayern and Arse I think whose prices are realistically reflective of their chances

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