Wednesday, 9 July 2008

9/7

Place backing Syvilla was the way to go it seems, and I was correct this time with LE Toreador, but he will be beaten soon, just as Precision Break was, and you'll know ,as the hints will be there with the betting forecast as to when the horse's perceived chances are weaker. Well, Heritage Coast - what happened there? 4/9 and nowhere! Oh how I love maidens
Win for Pat Smullen on Fungible at 9/2 -in fact the only Irish combo bet of the night - great! Again another 1/2 shot was beaten in IReland - this could be a good farming ground for laying odds on shots?
220 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Lady Fantasie, 7/4 Casual Style, 7/1 Jethro Bodine, 8/1 Dispol Toba, 12/1 Cotton N Silk, 25/1 Transformation, 33/1 Rocking Laura, 66/1 Ernies Keep .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race which will not take much winning and newcomer CASUAL STYLE - her stable's only runner at the meeting and the sole mount for her jockey - may well be equal to the task. Lady Fantasie is the main obstacle in her way
A seller, Dispol Toba is 14/1 currently - has had plenty of runs, and given the race type, is worth each way support, albeit with a throw away stake

650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Never Cry, 7/2 Deyas Dream, 11/2 Touching, 8/1 Today´s The Day, 12/1 Happy Forever, Smokey Ryder, 25/1 Sparkling Suzie, True Britannia, 33/1 Athania, Handful Of Magic, 40/1 Key To Love, 100/1 Southoffrance .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Deyas Dream and Touching look the pick on form and will merit each-way consideration if the odds allow, but the fact that Frankie Dettori makes the journey from Newmarket especially to ride newcomer NEVER CRY is hard to ignore
Never Cry is a newcomer and will be shorter given Frankie and Godolphin. If odds on, OR if I can get odds on by using KEEP bets if not odds on at the off, this horse is worth laying. A newcomer

210 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Millie´s Rock, 4/1 Adorabella, 6/1 Sterope, 7/1 Broken Moon, Neve Lieve, 10/1 Rockellio, Shenandoah Girl, 25/1 Marchpane, 33/1 Miss Cruisecontrol, Oasis Sun, 66/1 Poppy Gregg .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's probably a bit soon to be writing off Rockellio just yet and she's the one to watch in the market, while Sterope could well improve for the stiffer test. However, MILLIE'S ROCK continued the progression last weekend and is the one to beat under a penalty.
At 11/4, this may signify Millies Rock is layable. The odds are too high for a straight lay for me. I will chance Broken Moon each way

NAAS - IRish Combos again. 10/1 and 9/2 winners recently

610 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Six Day War, 4/1 Canndar, 5/1 Rapid Pete, 7/1 Saltrash, 10/1 A Perfect Gent, Icansingarainbow, 14/1 Foreign Edition, What A Biscuit, 25/1 Blazing Run, 33/1 Hirijan, Stoneacre Gareth, 66/1 Musical Affair .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Six Day War is the pick of those with experience and has the size and scope to progress at this game. However the question mark is his jumping and, although he is sure to have been well schooled since his last run, it remains to be seen how it holds up at racing pace. Canndar disappointed last time so a chance is taken with SALTRASH, who has plenty of jump winners in his pedigree, is from a yard going well and he won't have to be anything special to figure on his debut.

Always worth opposing favs in maiden hurdles I think, especially if we can get odds on

740
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Ellerslie Tom, 5/2 Chaninbar, 7/2 Dishdasha, 10/1 Caliban, 25/1 Risk Challenge, 66/1 Tirailleur .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is tricky as none of the three leading contenders want the ground to take a turn for the worse. ELLERSLIE TOM is given the vote on the assumption that he shows last week's form.[

"this is tricky" - well then lay the odds on shot! Also the fav and Dishdasha have the same trainer, perhaps an alternative is to back Dishdasha each way ?

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