Tuesday 20 November 2007

20/11

I must admit to surprise when High Esteem won as easily as he did in such a low grade affair but it was welcome. The cayterers also came in at 3/1 to take advantage of the jolly's absence and Present placed at 6/1 for each way backers. The galling thing is Approved, 4/1 in the betting forecast, and the horse next to Present in the betting forecast won at 11/1! It's the luck of the draw alas - if I'd have chosen the 3rd fav instead of the 4th I'd have been smiling for a week!
FAkenham begins with a selling handicap hurdle - hope that doesn't signal another poor day's racing
200 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dr McFab, 5/2 Kanonkop, 8/1 Pindar, 14/1 Kassuta, 20/1 Directa´s Digger, 25/1 Ballad Maker, 33/1 Feeling Peckish, Safe Investment, 100/1 First Frost, Ranavalona .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many to seriously consider and KANONKOP (nap) looks a live alternative to Dr McFab on these terms.[AWJ]This looks a tricky race to decipher with 4 debutants. I'll make mention of BAllad MAker ,currently trading at 14/1 - a possible market mover?
Pindar is the obvious each way horse but is a BArney Curley horse, and regular blog readers will know about BArney Curley by now. Can I confidently put up Pindar? I will have a small each way play on BAllad maker here - not selected in the usual each way way. This race should be dominated by the market leaders, but if only one of them falters this will open up place possibilities to a bigger priced horse, and Ballad maker may fit the bill given the potential market move ( as long as the price remains at 16/1 or lower) - if his odds move out to 25/1 then he's a no bet
Folkstone begins with a maiden hurdle in good to soft ground - not the ideal ground for betting.
110 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kid Charlemagne, 11/4 Matcho Pierji, 9/2 Master Medic, 8/1 Uncle Eli, 14/1 Darksideofthemoon, Oh Crick, 16/1 Regal Quote, 33/1 Sovereign King, 50/1 Chancery Lad, 100/1 Champion De Sou.
With so many outsdiers ,we can hopefully leave these out of the equation. Each way potential in MAtcho Pierji, Master Medic and Uncle Eli, although Darksideofthemoon is 9/1.
I'll stick with Matcho Pierji each way
120 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Rich Kid, 4/1 Berrynarbor, 7/1 Dusk Ballet, 10/1 Kamal, 16/1 Scientific, 25/1 Don Picolo, Riki Wiki Wheels, 50/1 Make A Bid .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Berrynarbor and Dusk Ballet have one piece of form to their name to give them claims on these terms, but this looks a good opportunity for RICH KID who has improved with every run and was suited by the step up to this trip when off the mark in a Leicester nursery last time.[AC]Typical of the bad race types we face today, Rich Kid is a potential price gapper, now 4/5 early doors with a noticeable price gap of 8/1 to the next horse. This, though is a claimer so he's not as rock solid with that piece of information known. Rich Kid may be worth risking but I must reiterate the race type - by no means an ideal price gapper but this is a small field and only 2 horses trade sub 10/1 (fav not withstanding)

A very difficult day today with good to soft at Folkstone not the ground I want to be betting on. Ballad maker is a speculative bet -those of you who want a safer proposition(if any Barney Curley entry could be safe!) could opt for Pindar, or back both each way in the same race.
Rich Kid appears in a claimer which is not ideal but the price gap indicates strong support. MAtcho Pierji looks a little too obvious for me today but I hope he places.
Sticklers may want to sit today out

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