Wednesday 14 November 2007

15/11

A sudden deterioration coinciding with the jumps season - coincidence - no! The obstacles are obviously having an effect. O'Maley unplaced and Well Saved unseated his rider - something that doesn't happen on the flat! Again in that race I chose the wrong horse - between April San and Well Saved - April San placed ! And with O'mAley , next in the betting forecast Flying Falcon placed. O'MAley came 4th alas.
And Speagle came 2nd - why? Veloso was priced 12/1 in the betting forecast, went off 3/1 - someone knew! This is the clear advantage in following racing live! But there you go! Howdigo and Outlandish won
I hope for a change of luck, although now the price gappers are the ones performing better even if I say I'm not backing them - typical!
PRICE GAPPERS
150 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Art Exhibition, 5/1 Hero Heart, 8/1 Yamanmickmccann, 14/1 Forever Changes, Little Lovely, 16/1 Epsom Salts, 20/1 Love And Glory, 25/1 My Pin Up, 33/1 Blakeshall Diamond, 50/1 Archilini .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With the few that have shown promise likely to do better once handicapped this looks set to go to a newcomer. ART EXHIBITION fits the bill.[AM]
A debutant in a maiden at a short price - not for me (so watch it win - lol)
Some other potential price gappers but I can't be having then based on the fact a large proportion are coming from the flat to the jumps and are installed at a short price based on reputation and "the hope that...."
EACH WAY
My selections are just missing - by which I mean it's the next horse in the betting forecast which places and not the one I want.
As I said above the jumps are proving troublesome to get to grips with but I'm learning daily. Even this early on, those with the ability to follow the live market have a distinct advantage because of the market movers - I am also limited in the races I can chose from because of the small fields prevalent through the jumps cards

EACH WAY

155 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Justified, 4/1 Knight Legend, 9/2 Mossbank, 7/1 Sher Beau, 8/1 Kill Devil Hill, 10/1 Light On The Broom, 12/1 Ansar, Jim, 20/1 Pacolet.

Can we safely discount the outside 3? f so then Knight Legend and Mossbank represent the ones to concentrate on - again it's a matter of luck largely in selecting the right horse and I will chance Moss bank here each way
220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Wraith, 5/2 Praxiteles, 5/1 Accusation, 8/1 Sweet Mischief, 12/1 Kokkokila, 14/1 Clear Reef, 33/1 Stroppi Poppi, 50/1 You´re My Son .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WRAITH, 7l clear of the remainder when runner-up in handicap company here last time, can get off the mark at the chief expense of Praxiteles.[AM]
I will chance Sweet Mischief here each way in the hope 1st and 2nd don't fill the first 2 berths - again this is a maiden race so is not perfect for betting

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