16/11

A return to form yesterday -hope you left Art Exhibition alone or at least the shrewdies amongst you followed the price drift and laid the debutant - he came nowhere, a winner yesterday for the each ways at 3/1 -perfectly acceptable for Moss BAnk, and Sweet Mischief placing at 14/1 ( 3rd) -3.5 for the place on betfair - there I was again viewing another big drifter and thinking -d'oh! Luckily he managed a place which left me contented!Sweet Mischief was available to back at 38 on BEtfair! What a price compared to the bookies 15!
On to today and Cheltenham welcomes some good quality races which ( shock,horror) fields of more that 4 or 5 runners!
PRICE GAPPERS
230 CHELTENHAM
If ever the term horses for courses was suited for one horse, then it's OAP Spotthedifference who just excels in long distance cross country races at Cheltenham. No this is not a price gapper at all ( as you'll realise glancing at the betting forecast adn I will be having a fun bet ,to level stakes on Spotthedifference and Le Duc. Old Spot is ,well, getting older but is absolutely proven here and cannot be left out of any equation.
Here's his form figures over the course and distance 111102114
345 Cheltenham
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Imperial Commander, 11/2 Over The Creek, 6/1 Nation State, 13/2 Classic Croco, 9/1 Karelian, 40/1 Predicament .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IMPERIAL COMMANDER is highly promising and should make it two from two over fences. Over The Creek may follow him home but is a threat only if he could recapture his form of three seasons agPrice gap is there and this is a class 2 race. With greater quality races I always put added importance on the betting forecast. One concern is Over the Creek's proximity. Being only 2 the place he could represent value for each way players, but you know by now that I prefer minimum 3 the place races
645 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Linsalata, 7/2 Raja, 9/2 Georgebernardshaw, 5/1 Croi Mo Ri, 10/1 Fay Street, Lethal Weapon, 12/1 Tin Cha Woody, 25/1 Fascinating Paddy, Shesanodder.
A 2 year old race with no mugs in opposition don't make Linsalata a shoe in by any means. Aiden O'Brien is preresented by Georgebernardshaw and Raja is a little too close in the betting forecast for me to comfortably put up Linsalata. Early prices are unavailable at present and a recommended look at the live market will determine any play in this 2 year old race - at least it's not a maiden, BUT there are a couple of debutants
100 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Whitcombe Minister, 8/1 Shesha Bear, 10/1 Pravda Street, 12/1 Dhhamaan, 16/1 Nice Wee Girl, 20/1 Nordic Commander, Orange Square, 25/1 Burnbrake, Gallic Charm, Rondeau, 66/1 Coral Shores, 100/1 Dickie Valentine .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An obvious opportunity for WHITCOMBE MINISTER who posted such a highly encouraging debut in a 7f Newmarket maiden last month fought out by some useful typesCurrently trading at 4/6 this represents a better price, quite obviously ,than the 4/9 the betting forecast priced the horse up as. Pravda street is close in the betting, at 7/1 and Nordic Commander may be worth a second glance as a possible market mover, trading at 14/1 from the 20/1 mentioned in the betting forecast.
Whitcombe Minister Highly encouraging debut when 66-1 fourth of 14 to potentially smart Fireside in 7f Newmarket maiden last month; looks certain future winner and pedigree to be at home on AW so likely to take a deal of beating.
is Spotlight's comment -I am not that confident given a 66/1 quote is suddenly slashed to 4/6 for a horse installed as fav based on this race and only one previous race. 3 debutants and a few 2 year olds who will inevitably improve with experience makes this a tricky proposition - why the price gap? I'll leave this up to you. Weigh up the evidence. The price will be ok for a price gapper at least, and if you take the bet on, you'll be backing the potential shown in one previous run only at 66/1!
355 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Faraday, 11/2 Mixing, 7/1 Krasivi´s Boy, 10/1 Maria Antonia, Mid Valley, War Of The Roses, 14/1 Oasis Sun, Prince Of Medina, 16/1 Garibaldi, 20/1 Beresford Lady, My Monna, 33/1 Big Ralph, Henry Holmes, 66/1 Silver Surprise, 100/1 Jaufrette, True Ruby .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around Barney Curley's Faraday. He'll go close, especially if the market is behind him back up in trip, but he's taken on with MIXING, who broke a losing run on his first run for the yard last month and will be suited by the return to 1m4f judged on his latest AW outing.[RY]Another BArney Curley runner in Faraday and I've said it before - they either win doing handstands or trail in last. No JAmie Spencer today -hols I expect. The market is a MUST in this race, but I will swerve Faraday today. He's already won under the patented Curley betting frenzy and that may have been the opportunity

The price gappers today I have put up in anticipation that these are the ones you would highlight ,along with Prince Noel at Wolves ( although he's now 5/2 which isn't a good sign). For me Imperial Commander is the one today, but note I have got it wrong the last few days by not betting when I should have! So make up your own minds and weigh up the evidence and race types yourself
EACH WAYS
Return to form welcome yesterday after troubles getting to grips with the Jumps each way bets, not helped by small fields and ,of course, the obstacles themselves
No each ways at Cheltenham - a pity given the quality of racing. The race with Zilcash in it had some prospects but it looks a tight betting forecast with only the 200/1 outsider readily dismissed.
1225 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 One More Round, 7/2 Mango Music, Mine Behind, 8/1 Pegasus Dancer, Regal Raider, 16/1 Mulberry Lad, 20/1 Bahamian Duke, 25/1 Pivotal Era, 33/1 Detonate, Legal Set, Mannello, 50/1 Ka´u Mauna Kea.
Not an ideal each way bet as the field size is a little large and its a claimer but the betting forecast indicates 3 horses who should dominate. I am a little concerned that I cannot readily dismiss PEgasus Dancer and Regal Raider. As things stand, I'll take MAngo Music each way in the hope this horse will place at the very least
245 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Baharah, 5/1 Den´s Gift, 20/1 Accolation, Miss Hoolie, Virgilia, 50/1 Qatar Way, 66/1 Falcon Flyer, 100/1 Acece .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An obvious opportunity for BAHARAH who acquitted herself really well when third of seven on her debut at Newmarket this month, with all the other runners having BHA ratings between 75 and 95. Only Den's Gift of her rivals has suggested he has a win in him, and he is returning from a long absence.Dens Gift surely is each way material here ,despite one non runner making this 2 the place with bookmakers BUT 3 the place still on BEtfair
855 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Prince Noel, 9/2 Lord Of Dreams, 6/1 Keisha Kayleigh, 7/1 Moonlight Fantasy, 10/1 Mandalay Prince, 12/1 Barbirolli, Thornaby Green, 14/1 Shaydreambeliever, Thumpers Dream.
Lord of Dreams looks the obvious each way play here. Perhaps not an ideal race as the perceived outsiders are 14/1 which shows to me that they are not readily dismissed as compared with 33/1 and bigger quotes