Fecking maiden hurdles - Shore thing pulled up as another fecking maiden hurdle "sure thing" - why do I keep going back to these - look at CHeckerboard - I did the right thing by swerving him - Sinitas came 2nd at 15/2 for each way backers with Rasie your game another frustrating 4th in what was a no bet race for me. In fact Carlisle should have been left alone as it turned into heavy ground near the off. -Something to remember this winter - look out for shocks in heavy ground over obstacles.BRave REberllion 5th again in heavy ground. Jemez placed as I hoped. I put it up as a place only bet again because of the ground. the winner of the 300 was a 16/1 system bet in Storymaker - 16/1 in the betting foreecast down to 11/1 in the live market. Alas I can't flag these so early
Ardesia won by the hair on his chinny chinn chin BUT he won! Look out for those trigger words " will be hard to beat " or a derivative of them. It usually signals a good run from the horse ,and more than likely the horse will place.Well the desert Quest lay actually came off - a high of 1.61 in running after being 1.34 pre race made for a green screen for those in running traders with the right software . He eventually won as expected but a slight blunder triggered the price rise.Hats off to Mickmacmagoole - Earth MAn nowhere.
MEndosino came 2nd for each way backers by 1/2 length - a good performance at odds near evens for the place
2 goals by the 61st minute -the first at half time, ensured the over 2.5 goal price plumetted - half an hour to go and one goal needed for overs - I didn't worry as this was a trade in the MAdrid v Aberdeen game. Bolton went 1-0 down and levelled near the end of the match meaning trading wasn't an option.Again, with the in running markets Zenit went 2-1 up with 11 minutes to go allowing my pre match back to be greened up despite Nurnberg scoring an equaliserr near the end. This trading is all about reaction.Mention must be made of the Spuds - 2-0 down afforded anyone who DIDN'T back them pre game to get enhanced odds on a 1/5 on shot and yes, they obliged - this would fall into the "in the hope that......." category, but time and time again, deficits are regained eventually and we can get superb odds for a heavily odds on team thanks to in running bettingGEtfae put out a weakened side at home - something I couldn't legislate for so they were playing with players like MAnuel the waiter from FAwlty Towers leaving me to wave goodbye to by back and the accumulator lay - LESSON AGAIN - lay accumulators - hope you've seen that this week - they've all gone south - the ones I termed mug punters accumulators because they are - so become a bookmaker next time you're tempted!815 DUNDALK
George Bernardshaw near the head of the market and worthy of a mention as it is a BAllydoyle trained horse - ideal would be each way here
940 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Kevkat, 5/1 Cool Touch, Davidii, 6/1 Fly Free, Monteriggioni, 16/1 Tin Town Boy, 20/1 Araschan, Dart Along, Green Tobasco, Sativa, Who´d Of Guest, 33/1 Holly Hill, Lesoto Diamond, Nanita Bonita ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KEVKAT (nap) is tipped to score on his third attempt over the course and trip. Winner of a premier handicap over 1m4f at the 2006 Galway Festival, and later placed in competitive handicaps over 1m6f at Tralee and 1m2f at The Curragh, Eoin Griffin's six-year-old had been off the track for more than a year when reappearing at Navan last month, and his two subsquent runs at this venue provide evidence that he is coming right back to his best.\n KEvkat is worthy of a mention with Jonny Murtagh in the saddle - the ideal? a place only bet, or an in running trade. Looks primed for an each way hit though. Kevkat will go off at likely odds against so as a stand alone win bet could be on, although as I've said, place only is safer
1240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Annambo, 3/1 Musango, 5/1 Dot´s Delight, 10/1 Bucks, Missie Baileys, 12/1 Divine River, Gunner´s View, 16/1 The Iron Giant, 20/1 Isa´Af, 50/1 You´re My Son, 100/1 Royalties .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Annambo and MUSANGO make the most appeal here, with marginal preference for the latter. He is better than he showed last time and this drop to selling company will be in his favour.A seller is not really ideal hunting ground but our ability to discount many via early market prices points to Musango for me for a place only bet here.
245 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Paradise Dancer, 7/2 Demisemiquaver, Saviour Sand, 10/1 Bonne D´Argent, Power Player, 14/1 Muscovado, My Monna, 16/1 Samahir, 20/1 Virgilia, 50/1 Ela Mario, 100/1 Dickie Deano.
Distinct price tiers
TIER 1 - 9/4, 7/2, 7/2
TIER 2 - 10/1,10/1, 14/1,14/1
TIER 3 - 16/1 and bigger
TIER 1 are the horses to look at for OBVIOUS bets ( the obvious doesn't always work where horses are concerned though!) and Demisemiquaver for me each way ( or biased place only with a little on the win only market)
150 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Mr Crystal, 5/1 Grand Art, 11/2 Strobe, 6/1 Los Nadis, 8/1 Stylish Shot, 9/1 Flamed Amazement, 10/1 Lochiel, New World Order, 20/1 Majestic Chief, 33/1 Beaumont Boy, 66/1 Hair Of The Dog, Polish Star .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mr Crystal has done almost everything right over hurdles but giving a stone away to virtually all his rivals could leave him in trouble against some relatively unexposed novices and LOS NADIS, for one, may well be the type to take advantage.[RA]
An interesting early market - MAjestic Chief out leaes 11 - 3 of these 11 are 100/1 or bigger reduces us to 8. Of those 8, Flamed Amazement is now 25/1 (check out the betting forecast price) and can, we assume be unfancied, bringing us to 7.
Of the 7 remaining, Mr Crystal is obviously fancied by the betting forecaster but is giving nearly a stone away in weight to all but one of his rivals. Currently trading at 11/4, this represents a reasonable place only bet, BUT Strobe is the one for early support now at 10/3 and I will opt for the latter as an each way play
Exercise some discipline at Newbury with good to soft ground
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Swift Gift, 5/2 Wise Hawk, 7/2 Spiritofthetiger, 15/2 Nice Wee Girl, 25/1 Lechero, 33/1 Amyann, 50/1 Admiral Troy, 66/1 Black Or Red, 200/1 Westwood Dawn .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Spiritofthetiger sets a better standard than Nice Wee Girl as far as AW form is concerned, but she looks vulnerable to both SWIFT GIFT and likely improver Wise Hawk with preference for the former whose debut form has been franked plenty of times since and whose stable has had a couple of 2yo winners lately.
NEarly the ideal for an each way option - the only niggle is 2 similarly prices shorties rather than 1. Why ideal? - 9 runners, 5 at 25/1 or larger leaves 4 involved. Spiritofthetiger the obvious candidate each way .
Friday, 30 November 2007
Thursday, 29 November 2007
29 NOV
A day of 4th places for a couple of selections proved very frustrating - Orchard Supreme 4th and Stormy Skye 4th meant we don't get the place payments for each way bets. Plume D-oudaires was a casualty of jumps racing being pulled up. LAmbrini leader again 4th beaten to the places by a 50/1 and 33/1 shot.
On a brighter note, Caprio won. Porto's equaliser ensured that the lay of Liverpool could be salvaged for in running traders. I got out at odds of 2. Liverpool scored when their odds were 2.42. I told you they make life difficult, but the game didn't go as I had envisioned. Nevertheless it was a successful lay despite the 4-1 final scoreline!.In retrospect, the 1.67 about Chelski was huge given the history of the fixture and the Special One's departure after 1-1. A convincing Chelsea performance showed that the games Rosenborg had against Valencia were down to a bad Valencia side rather than a huge improvement in Rosenborg.So the evening brought some profit from a frustrating day for the each ways.Today I'm doing the blog a little earlier - 7am so have no access to early prices as I would prefer so it's just down to the betting forecast for me and any info I can get from SpotlightSoft ground at Carlisle is not what I want to see starting offA quick mention for the 1250 - yes you guessed it, a short priced fav in a maiden hurdle in Checkerboard -now with the soft ground I cannot possibly have this horse and he looks primed to be taken on from an each way perspectiveBETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Checkerboard, 9/2 Raise Your Game, 6/1 Sinatas, 10/1 Meertrix, 14/1 Film Festival, 16/1 Moonhawk, 20/1 Besi, Greenbelt, Jazrawy, Joshua´s Gold, Ninetyninetreble, Watch The Wind, 66/1 Georgedoubleyou, La Troussardiere, 100/1 Lazzoom, Naval Attache.
Obvious candidates in Raise your game and Sinatas - 16 runners is a lot of runners for an each way race and 3 the place - soft ground will lead me to assume that there will be a bigger priced place horse. A no bet race for me
120 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Akilak, 5/2 Stagecoach Diamond, 7/2 Cantgeton, 5/1 Brave Rebellion, 14/1 King Mak, 16/1 Minster Shadow, 20/1 Our Man In Bangkok, 100/1 Panthers Run, Tipp Mid West .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The frustrating AKILAK is never going to be one for the rent money but he runs his best races when fresh and this looks the best time to catch him. Stagecoach Diamond and Cantgeton have achieved most among his rivals but stand by for improvement from Brave Rebellion
With soft ground preference is to leave CArlisle alone but here we have a 10 runner race with 2 obvious outsiders and Our Man in Bangkok who we can hopefully discount.
I will chance Brave Rebellion each way here, price drift not withstanding having no access to early prices
155 CARLISLE - Jemez is one of those "who ran a blinder on his hurdling debut after a long layoff and should take plenty of beating provided he doesn't bounce" - a slight price gap 11/8 - - 3/1 - again the worry is the "bounce factor" especially with soft ground. Could be a good place only candidate but the niggle is the ground again
300 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Le Rouge Fatal, 11/4 Kingsbury, 4/1 Etched In Stone, 13/2 Aviation, 7/1 Hi Dancer, 16/1 Storymaker, 20/1 Radar, 40/1 Moyne Pleasure .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Le Rouge Fatal sluiced up here last week and is the obvious starting point under a penalty but KINGSBURY shaped really well on his reappearance, also goes well here and is preferred. Etched In Stone will look interesting off this feather weight if the market reflects any confidence.[PJ]SAtraight 8 runner field - can we discount Radar and Moyne pleasure? If so that leaves 6 . BEcause of the soft ground I will leave out the obvious and plump for Hi Dancer, again assuming the 7/1 in the live market is not significantly increased
1240 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Shore Thing, 6/1 Le Chiffre, 15/2 Red Birr, 10/1 Genari, 16/1 Captain Becket, 33/1 Popcorn Rosie, Rhetoric, Rock Star Appeal, Shava, 40/1 Golden Sprite, 50/1 Listen Son, 66/1 Forest Lodge, Grand Sefton .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shore Thing did enough on his debut to suggest he is well up to taking a this sort of race but LE CHIFFRE was of similar ability on the Flat and it may be worth chancing that his stamina holds out on this easy track.[JN]Oh why me? - Yes another maiden hurdle and another price gapper in that sphere.
Spotlight says
" Shore Thing Withdrawn from first three intended hurdling starts but showed what he could do when finally allowed to take his chance at Uttoxeter at the beginning of the month; clear form pick on that evidence and stayed well on the Flat, though did not always convince with his attitude in that sphere; still hard to beat."
Yes we have the hard to beat in there, but you'll see in verdict that he has not chosen Shore thing as his black type selection. So what to do? The betting forecast indicates more quantity than quality and many who can be discounted. With 8 at 33/1 or bigger Shore thing may be worth chancing - preference is for the back and lay off in running as I can see the horse being at the business end of the race. The " hard to beat" sways me from swerving this maiden hurdle shortie.
110 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ardesia, 5/1 Ful Of Grace, Mujamead, 6/1 Dr Dream, 8/1 Watch Out, 33/1 Acosta, Straight Face, 50/1 Fashion Accessory .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is a little surprising to see ARDESIA down at this level quite so soon following two fair efforts in novice company and he's expected to make the most of it.[AWJ] Ardesia Four Flat starts in Ireland earned a measly rating of 47 but made a promising start to hurdling on soft ground at Uttoxeter (accounted for subsequent winner) and it wasn´t a bad effort in defeat at Leicester last time considering the penalty; hard to beat down at this level.
Another hard to beat price gapper - almost a default bet for me when I see the trigger words "hard to beat" - a drop in grade further strengthens the case for backing as does a smallish field.
140 TAUNTON
At 1.38, Desert Quest is worth a speculative lay in this beginners chase although he should win with ease for Sam Thomas and Paul Nicholls. Sometimes small fields can bring about errors and it will take just one mistake for Desert Quest's odds to rise and allow for a bit of trading. This is a throw away bet "in the hope that................." rather than a nailed on lay
350 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Mickmacmagoole, 13/2 Sovietica, 7/1 Meet The Legend, 8/1 Earth Man, 14/1 Grave Doubts, Roby De Cimbre, 16/1 Silverhay, 20/1 Bay Hawk, Critical Stage, Ready Response, Welsh Main, 25/1 Nayodabayo, 66/1 Wun Chai .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Yet another race that revolves around MICKMACMAGOOLE. He should enjoy this ground better than that he raced on at Kempton two days ago and even a repeat of that effort could be good enough if still able to produce his best after a busy time of it. Sovietica and Earth Man could offer the biggest threats.[JN]
Chosen a couple of days ago and can race 7lb lower today but I mentioned the bounce factor with regards to another horse earlier on and can't have Mick today. Earth Man could be a viable each way alternative but this is a large field
340 UTTOXETER - MEndosino looks to be a good place only option here in light of his previous victory over Mickmacmagoole who runs again today.
FOOTY
If it ain't broke don't fix it - Gary MEgson's stance on Bolton who returned to in your face football with a great win over Man Utd and I cannot see them losing at home tonight, team selection not withstanding. A first team should ensure a good game this evening and the 8/13 is reasonable, and I will wade in with a trade in mind if Bolton can secure an early goal.
An over 2.5 goal trade looks good in the Athletico MAdrid v Aberdeen game - alas I cannot see the Scottish revival ,as shown by Celtic last night, being replicated against a classy Athletico. Again, I would want to see the first team here. This is another trade, and an early goal should ensure the over 2.5 goal odds will reduce.
My shortlist of good things, as long as first teams are played, include Zenit St PEtersburg, Spurs, and Getafe who I put up at 11/4 the other day and they lead 1-0 only for another shocking error to produce a late equaliser.
In each of these games, I would expect the in running markets to be open so trading is the viable option for me. All of the above have one thing in common, bar Zenit, and that's a change of management improving performance - Ramos at Spuds, Laudrup at Getafe. A good bet would be to lay the opponents in a multiple (back the lays) -this should increase the odds and we have a good chance of the bet coming off.We get odds of 1.47 if we lay Nurnberg, Aberdeen, HApoel, AEB and Aris.
On a brighter note, Caprio won. Porto's equaliser ensured that the lay of Liverpool could be salvaged for in running traders. I got out at odds of 2. Liverpool scored when their odds were 2.42. I told you they make life difficult, but the game didn't go as I had envisioned. Nevertheless it was a successful lay despite the 4-1 final scoreline!.In retrospect, the 1.67 about Chelski was huge given the history of the fixture and the Special One's departure after 1-1. A convincing Chelsea performance showed that the games Rosenborg had against Valencia were down to a bad Valencia side rather than a huge improvement in Rosenborg.So the evening brought some profit from a frustrating day for the each ways.Today I'm doing the blog a little earlier - 7am so have no access to early prices as I would prefer so it's just down to the betting forecast for me and any info I can get from SpotlightSoft ground at Carlisle is not what I want to see starting offA quick mention for the 1250 - yes you guessed it, a short priced fav in a maiden hurdle in Checkerboard -now with the soft ground I cannot possibly have this horse and he looks primed to be taken on from an each way perspectiveBETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Checkerboard, 9/2 Raise Your Game, 6/1 Sinatas, 10/1 Meertrix, 14/1 Film Festival, 16/1 Moonhawk, 20/1 Besi, Greenbelt, Jazrawy, Joshua´s Gold, Ninetyninetreble, Watch The Wind, 66/1 Georgedoubleyou, La Troussardiere, 100/1 Lazzoom, Naval Attache.
Obvious candidates in Raise your game and Sinatas - 16 runners is a lot of runners for an each way race and 3 the place - soft ground will lead me to assume that there will be a bigger priced place horse. A no bet race for me
120 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Akilak, 5/2 Stagecoach Diamond, 7/2 Cantgeton, 5/1 Brave Rebellion, 14/1 King Mak, 16/1 Minster Shadow, 20/1 Our Man In Bangkok, 100/1 Panthers Run, Tipp Mid West .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The frustrating AKILAK is never going to be one for the rent money but he runs his best races when fresh and this looks the best time to catch him. Stagecoach Diamond and Cantgeton have achieved most among his rivals but stand by for improvement from Brave Rebellion
With soft ground preference is to leave CArlisle alone but here we have a 10 runner race with 2 obvious outsiders and Our Man in Bangkok who we can hopefully discount.
I will chance Brave Rebellion each way here, price drift not withstanding having no access to early prices
155 CARLISLE - Jemez is one of those "who ran a blinder on his hurdling debut after a long layoff and should take plenty of beating provided he doesn't bounce" - a slight price gap 11/8 - - 3/1 - again the worry is the "bounce factor" especially with soft ground. Could be a good place only candidate but the niggle is the ground again
300 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Le Rouge Fatal, 11/4 Kingsbury, 4/1 Etched In Stone, 13/2 Aviation, 7/1 Hi Dancer, 16/1 Storymaker, 20/1 Radar, 40/1 Moyne Pleasure .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Le Rouge Fatal sluiced up here last week and is the obvious starting point under a penalty but KINGSBURY shaped really well on his reappearance, also goes well here and is preferred. Etched In Stone will look interesting off this feather weight if the market reflects any confidence.[PJ]SAtraight 8 runner field - can we discount Radar and Moyne pleasure? If so that leaves 6 . BEcause of the soft ground I will leave out the obvious and plump for Hi Dancer, again assuming the 7/1 in the live market is not significantly increased
1240 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Shore Thing, 6/1 Le Chiffre, 15/2 Red Birr, 10/1 Genari, 16/1 Captain Becket, 33/1 Popcorn Rosie, Rhetoric, Rock Star Appeal, Shava, 40/1 Golden Sprite, 50/1 Listen Son, 66/1 Forest Lodge, Grand Sefton .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shore Thing did enough on his debut to suggest he is well up to taking a this sort of race but LE CHIFFRE was of similar ability on the Flat and it may be worth chancing that his stamina holds out on this easy track.[JN]Oh why me? - Yes another maiden hurdle and another price gapper in that sphere.
Spotlight says
" Shore Thing Withdrawn from first three intended hurdling starts but showed what he could do when finally allowed to take his chance at Uttoxeter at the beginning of the month; clear form pick on that evidence and stayed well on the Flat, though did not always convince with his attitude in that sphere; still hard to beat."
Yes we have the hard to beat in there, but you'll see in verdict that he has not chosen Shore thing as his black type selection. So what to do? The betting forecast indicates more quantity than quality and many who can be discounted. With 8 at 33/1 or bigger Shore thing may be worth chancing - preference is for the back and lay off in running as I can see the horse being at the business end of the race. The " hard to beat" sways me from swerving this maiden hurdle shortie.
110 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ardesia, 5/1 Ful Of Grace, Mujamead, 6/1 Dr Dream, 8/1 Watch Out, 33/1 Acosta, Straight Face, 50/1 Fashion Accessory .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is a little surprising to see ARDESIA down at this level quite so soon following two fair efforts in novice company and he's expected to make the most of it.[AWJ] Ardesia Four Flat starts in Ireland earned a measly rating of 47 but made a promising start to hurdling on soft ground at Uttoxeter (accounted for subsequent winner) and it wasn´t a bad effort in defeat at Leicester last time considering the penalty; hard to beat down at this level.
Another hard to beat price gapper - almost a default bet for me when I see the trigger words "hard to beat" - a drop in grade further strengthens the case for backing as does a smallish field.
140 TAUNTON
At 1.38, Desert Quest is worth a speculative lay in this beginners chase although he should win with ease for Sam Thomas and Paul Nicholls. Sometimes small fields can bring about errors and it will take just one mistake for Desert Quest's odds to rise and allow for a bit of trading. This is a throw away bet "in the hope that................." rather than a nailed on lay
350 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Mickmacmagoole, 13/2 Sovietica, 7/1 Meet The Legend, 8/1 Earth Man, 14/1 Grave Doubts, Roby De Cimbre, 16/1 Silverhay, 20/1 Bay Hawk, Critical Stage, Ready Response, Welsh Main, 25/1 Nayodabayo, 66/1 Wun Chai .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Yet another race that revolves around MICKMACMAGOOLE. He should enjoy this ground better than that he raced on at Kempton two days ago and even a repeat of that effort could be good enough if still able to produce his best after a busy time of it. Sovietica and Earth Man could offer the biggest threats.[JN]
Chosen a couple of days ago and can race 7lb lower today but I mentioned the bounce factor with regards to another horse earlier on and can't have Mick today. Earth Man could be a viable each way alternative but this is a large field
340 UTTOXETER - MEndosino looks to be a good place only option here in light of his previous victory over Mickmacmagoole who runs again today.
FOOTY
If it ain't broke don't fix it - Gary MEgson's stance on Bolton who returned to in your face football with a great win over Man Utd and I cannot see them losing at home tonight, team selection not withstanding. A first team should ensure a good game this evening and the 8/13 is reasonable, and I will wade in with a trade in mind if Bolton can secure an early goal.
An over 2.5 goal trade looks good in the Athletico MAdrid v Aberdeen game - alas I cannot see the Scottish revival ,as shown by Celtic last night, being replicated against a classy Athletico. Again, I would want to see the first team here. This is another trade, and an early goal should ensure the over 2.5 goal odds will reduce.
My shortlist of good things, as long as first teams are played, include Zenit St PEtersburg, Spurs, and Getafe who I put up at 11/4 the other day and they lead 1-0 only for another shocking error to produce a late equaliser.
In each of these games, I would expect the in running markets to be open so trading is the viable option for me. All of the above have one thing in common, bar Zenit, and that's a change of management improving performance - Ramos at Spuds, Laudrup at Getafe. A good bet would be to lay the opponents in a multiple (back the lays) -this should increase the odds and we have a good chance of the bet coming off.We get odds of 1.47 if we lay Nurnberg, Aberdeen, HApoel, AEB and Aris.
Wednesday, 28 November 2007
28/11
Mickmacmagoogle managed 2nd place after blundering at the last, great for place only backers as suggested. The lay of Sporting came good - eventually! THe lay of Lyon could have been traded out after 4-5 minutes as BArcelona scored first - the eventual 2-2 scoreline was a winner.
The unders in the Rangers game could have been salvaged in the 40th minute but those waiting til half time knew their fate with a late 45th minute equaliser. THe Sevilla bets went south - the importance of team news - a weakened Arsenal side and no way for us to get out of any bets from a trading perspective. My analysis of the Forest game was so close - cue 3-1 - again it offered trading opportunities throughout the game with so many angles covered! LAying the draw in the Swansea v HArtlepool game came off.
Lesson from yesterday - trying to be too clever with bets! Not enough selectivity
720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Appalachian Trail, 5/1 Orchard Supreme, 6/1 Troubadour, Very Wise, 8/1 Wise Dennis, 10/1 Waterside, 12/1 Raptor, Ventura, 20/1 Babodana, Highway To Glory .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: APPALACHIAN TRAIL, who is well suited by the race conditions and has 5lb and more in hand all round on official figures, is happy over any trip from 6f-1m and comes here in the form of his life. Very Wise, whose last effort can safely be ignored, also has claims but Orchard Supreme makes most appeal of the quartet to contest that Lingfield race.[GW]A reasonable size for potential each ways. 3 at 20/1 or bigger reduce the field to 7 . Morning prices mirror the betting forecast so it'll be Orchard Supreme each way for me
750 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Caprio, 6/1 Bazguy, Too Grand, 8/1 Countrywide Comet, Diademas, 10/1 What´s For Tea, 12/1 Ambrose Princess, 16/1 Plaka, 20/1 Nothing Likea Dame, 33/1 Dickie Valentine, Kaystar Ridge, My Flame .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAPRIO won with a fair bit in hand last week and, as long as he gets to the start in one piece and runs to a similar level, he'll take the beating under a penalty. Too Grand could give him most do to
THe key here will be to actually watch CAprio on his way to post - apparently a bit of a monkey. If all is smooth there, I am taken by the "he'll take the beating" positivity of Spotlight. 2/1 currently represents a decent chance but this is a 2 year old nursery - yuk!
100 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Lady Pilot, 4/1 Mem O´Rees, 11/2 Pakaradyssa, 7/1 Plume D´Oudairies, 14/1 Kayf Keel, Princess Flame, 20/1 Gobejolly, 25/1 Anna Panna, Twinkling Star, 33/1 Power Again, 100/1 Phone Call, Spot The Lady, Valassini .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mighty Man's half-sister Mem O'Rees and French import Pakaradyssa are respected rivals but LADY PILOT never looked back on the Flat after joining this yard and that improvement looks set to continue over hurdles judged on the promise of her initial effort at HuntingdoWith 6 or maybe 7 at 20/1 or greater, this reduces the field if the betting forecaster is accurate and the horses run as the prices suggest. A mares only novices hurdle and a short price that can be taken on I think, with Plume D'Oudaires each way just before the 14/1 shot. The obvious one is Mem O'REes at a shorter price
240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Julius, Noble Action, 5/1 Stormy Skye, 7/1 Bally Conn, 10/1 Whosethatfor, 12/1 Supreme Tadgh, Victor Daly, 14/1 Malaga Boy, 33/1 So Many Questions .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Winning pointer NOBLE ACTION claimed a useful scalp over hurdles last time and even better is expected over fences today. Julius rates a likely danger.[BDO]Priced up as a 3 way go, Storm Skye each way for me
230 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lease Lend, 5/2 Kilcannon Supreme, 10/1 Lambrini Leader, O´Sogood, 14/1 Bal Birnie, Jumeirah Jane, Lewis´s World, Treacle Moon, 20/1 Sea Venture, Westgate, 33/1 Curran, Grey Eagle, Red O´Donnell, 66/1 Fol Esprit .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Useful bumper performer Lease Lend wasn't disgraced on his hurdle debut but he didn't jump with much fluency and preference is for KILCANNON SUPREME (nap). Peter Bowen's dual bumper winner wasn't disgraced on his hurdle debut in a race that is working out well and he's open to plenty of improvement. [RY]7 horses at 40/1 or bigger ,we assume, can be discounted, and 2 short priced market leaders Oh so good and LAmbrini leader each way here - in case this doesn't follow the market and one of the 2 main principles falls of finds it tough
FOOTY
More selectivity today I think. Liverppol look primed to beat Porto, especially with Torres playing, but ,yet again, we have seen it time and time again, they make the fans sweat, so are logical lay material for trading purposes in the hope Porto score first or it remains 0-0 for a sufficient period to allow market makers to push the price out.
Rosenborg must be applauded for beating VAlencia twice, but I suspect this may say more about the state of Valencia than a marked improvement in the minnows. I will back Chelsea here and I suspect it will be a one goal lead that will win it.
The unders in the Rangers game could have been salvaged in the 40th minute but those waiting til half time knew their fate with a late 45th minute equaliser. THe Sevilla bets went south - the importance of team news - a weakened Arsenal side and no way for us to get out of any bets from a trading perspective. My analysis of the Forest game was so close - cue 3-1 - again it offered trading opportunities throughout the game with so many angles covered! LAying the draw in the Swansea v HArtlepool game came off.
Lesson from yesterday - trying to be too clever with bets! Not enough selectivity
720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Appalachian Trail, 5/1 Orchard Supreme, 6/1 Troubadour, Very Wise, 8/1 Wise Dennis, 10/1 Waterside, 12/1 Raptor, Ventura, 20/1 Babodana, Highway To Glory .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: APPALACHIAN TRAIL, who is well suited by the race conditions and has 5lb and more in hand all round on official figures, is happy over any trip from 6f-1m and comes here in the form of his life. Very Wise, whose last effort can safely be ignored, also has claims but Orchard Supreme makes most appeal of the quartet to contest that Lingfield race.[GW]A reasonable size for potential each ways. 3 at 20/1 or bigger reduce the field to 7 . Morning prices mirror the betting forecast so it'll be Orchard Supreme each way for me
750 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Caprio, 6/1 Bazguy, Too Grand, 8/1 Countrywide Comet, Diademas, 10/1 What´s For Tea, 12/1 Ambrose Princess, 16/1 Plaka, 20/1 Nothing Likea Dame, 33/1 Dickie Valentine, Kaystar Ridge, My Flame .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAPRIO won with a fair bit in hand last week and, as long as he gets to the start in one piece and runs to a similar level, he'll take the beating under a penalty. Too Grand could give him most do to
THe key here will be to actually watch CAprio on his way to post - apparently a bit of a monkey. If all is smooth there, I am taken by the "he'll take the beating" positivity of Spotlight. 2/1 currently represents a decent chance but this is a 2 year old nursery - yuk!
100 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Lady Pilot, 4/1 Mem O´Rees, 11/2 Pakaradyssa, 7/1 Plume D´Oudairies, 14/1 Kayf Keel, Princess Flame, 20/1 Gobejolly, 25/1 Anna Panna, Twinkling Star, 33/1 Power Again, 100/1 Phone Call, Spot The Lady, Valassini .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mighty Man's half-sister Mem O'Rees and French import Pakaradyssa are respected rivals but LADY PILOT never looked back on the Flat after joining this yard and that improvement looks set to continue over hurdles judged on the promise of her initial effort at HuntingdoWith 6 or maybe 7 at 20/1 or greater, this reduces the field if the betting forecaster is accurate and the horses run as the prices suggest. A mares only novices hurdle and a short price that can be taken on I think, with Plume D'Oudaires each way just before the 14/1 shot. The obvious one is Mem O'REes at a shorter price
240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Julius, Noble Action, 5/1 Stormy Skye, 7/1 Bally Conn, 10/1 Whosethatfor, 12/1 Supreme Tadgh, Victor Daly, 14/1 Malaga Boy, 33/1 So Many Questions .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Winning pointer NOBLE ACTION claimed a useful scalp over hurdles last time and even better is expected over fences today. Julius rates a likely danger.[BDO]Priced up as a 3 way go, Storm Skye each way for me
230 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lease Lend, 5/2 Kilcannon Supreme, 10/1 Lambrini Leader, O´Sogood, 14/1 Bal Birnie, Jumeirah Jane, Lewis´s World, Treacle Moon, 20/1 Sea Venture, Westgate, 33/1 Curran, Grey Eagle, Red O´Donnell, 66/1 Fol Esprit .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Useful bumper performer Lease Lend wasn't disgraced on his hurdle debut but he didn't jump with much fluency and preference is for KILCANNON SUPREME (nap). Peter Bowen's dual bumper winner wasn't disgraced on his hurdle debut in a race that is working out well and he's open to plenty of improvement. [RY]7 horses at 40/1 or bigger ,we assume, can be discounted, and 2 short priced market leaders Oh so good and LAmbrini leader each way here - in case this doesn't follow the market and one of the 2 main principles falls of finds it tough
FOOTY
More selectivity today I think. Liverppol look primed to beat Porto, especially with Torres playing, but ,yet again, we have seen it time and time again, they make the fans sweat, so are logical lay material for trading purposes in the hope Porto score first or it remains 0-0 for a sufficient period to allow market makers to push the price out.
Rosenborg must be applauded for beating VAlencia twice, but I suspect this may say more about the state of Valencia than a marked improvement in the minnows. I will back Chelsea here and I suspect it will be a one goal lead that will win it.
Tuesday, 27 November 2007
27/11
Witch Wind and Sonny Liston failed to place - the perils of soft ground betting allowing bigger priced horses to get the eachw ay placings. This will probably be a regular occurence when the ground falls soft or heavy- a more speculative each way attitude can be taken. Very good day nevertheless with Onenight inlisbon winning at 6/1 and Herecomes stanley at 3/1 ( both bigger prices on Betfair.. So we select eachw ays predominantly to place only BUT of course welcome these winners. More of the same please! Interetingly the winners came where there were no ground concernsThe big boys are out at KEmpton but the prevalence of 7 runner races makes things difficult for each way backers - ready preference is for 8 runner fields as they pay out 3 the place and horses have, theoretically, only 5 to beat to place330 KEMPTONBETTING FORECAST: Evs Mickmacmagoole, 7/1 Rapscallion, 8/1 Lordsbridge, 12/1 King Fasliev, Maximix, 16/1 Imperial Harry, 20/1 Napoletano, Shaamit The Vaamit, 25/1 Hint Of Gold, Rawaabet, Raydan, 33/1 Factor Fifteen, Golden Square, Heebie Jeebie, Rosenblatt, 50/1 Black Cloud, Psychiatrist, Safin .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not as competitive as the numbers suggest and an ideal opportunity for MICKMACMAGOOLE to follow up last Friday's comfortable Exeter success. Rapscallion heads the list of each-way alternativesInstalled as fav again based on an easy last win - remember winners in handicaps always go up in weight. Mick Mac is top weight here and we have conditional jockeys in the saddle - not the ideal. 11 of the 18 runners are 33/1 or bigger in the betting forecast, and Mickmac will find it more difficult to win today.On the plus side he won in a conditional jockeys handicap last time under John Flavin. This screams out place only bet with 4 the place. You will, of course, get evens or over given the race type and field size and he may be worth the investment but we know all about big fields and potential hazards. Add to this the ground being good to soft and this being the last race of the day, I'll leave the decision up to you.YES - won readily in similar race last time for same jockey - potential quantity over quality race with 11 runners at 33/1 or bigger betting forecast. Significant price gap - progressive form this jumps seasonNO - big field=potential mistakes -conditionaljockeys lack tactical nouse - good to soft ground and last race of day in ground which may cut up due to previous races100 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Coronado´s Gold, 4/1 Arctic Cove, 9/2 All In, 5/1 Bold Pioneer, 6/1 Mr Ex, 10/1 Ginger´s Star, 12/1 Tammy, 16/1 Cwm Chwefru .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CORONADO'S GOLD (nap) should be able to stretch his stamina to win at this level and he gets the vote. All In will be suited by a return to this ground and could be best of the remainder.[EMW]I thought I'd shae this one as a potential each way race (8 runners) but one which doesn't pass my inspection! The first sign of n open race is the price of the perceived outsider -16/1 - hardly an outsider's price. There is no noticeable price gap between place prospects at 4/1 to 6/1 and the perceived outsiders - Ginger's star cannot be safely discounted at 10/1 and, as already referred to, the 2 outsiders are 12/1 and 16/1 indicating they're not quite the " write them off" outsiders. So a no bet race but I thought I'd give my reasonings
One of those days today alas - either the fields are too big, or they're too small. Remember, the bookie has to price up every race but we have the advantage of being selective .
FOOTY
Champions LEague this evening may offer some respite
MAn Utd take on Sporting Lisbon after Fergie did a "Rafa" at the weekend snd shuffled the pack ,and the team looked lacklustre to be honest. TEvez doesn't seem to click without Rooney. They are odds on to beat Sporting Lisbon this evening at Old Trafford and generally get the job done. I would like to see the team sheet before deciding on a wager. After the debacle at Bolton, Fergie will not want to lose this match but Sporting may prove tough opposition. A lay of Sporting for me - I cannot see MAn Utd losing this.
Lyon are at home to BArcelona who are odds against -an appealing 11/8. Barca have taken time to break opponents down domestically and their away form is bad in all competitions. Lyon are worth a lay at 8/5 I think, with one eye on trading.
You remember my last mug punter accumulator was let down by Man Utd ( see why I advocate laying accumulators!) well, I'm at it again with Inter and Watford standing out-the double paying just over evens. No doubt one team will draw as is the case with accumulators when yours truly gets stuck inStuttgart v Rangers looks interesting from an under 2.5 goal perspective. The containing job Rangers did against BArca could be replicated tonight as they look to adopt another defensive formation. One up top means a diminished goal threat for Rangers, and teh defensive line up could present a tough hurdle for Stuttgart - that's the theory anyway - watch out for 3-3 halftime!!Arsenal are a big price 11/4 away to Sevilla who lost to MAjorca at the weekend indicating their favourite status might be at risk. If Arsenal are to do it, I see it being by only one goalArsenal +0.5 goals on the ASian HAndicap at 1.82 looks reasonableArsenal +0.5 If Arsenal draw or win If Sevilla win
£82.00 -£100.00A lay of Sevilla/Sevilla HAlf time/full time at 3.85 is generally short enough to get involved in for small stakes.From a sequencing perspective, Swansea and HArtlepool have drawn their last 2 games, albeit not recent meetings. Looking at it from a purely sequencing perpective and nothing else, perhaps a lay of the draw here might pay off?
Notts Forest - backing the 1-0 (odds of 7.8), 2-0 (odds of 7.2) and 2-1 (odds of 10) on BEtfair may be a way in for those put off by the match odds. Lincoln have not scored away from home in the last 2 outings. Forest have scored 2 clear goals last 2 home games - so 2-1 has to be included. To be honest you could also back Lincoln at 13 to win outright and the draw at 5.5.So odds would be7.87.21013.55.5BEcause the lowest odds are 5.5, we can back all of the above to level stakes and still profit if one of them comes in ( a slight break even position on the draw) You may like to leave the draw out to enhance payouts. It looks an interesting bet ( cue 3-1 Forest!)
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not as competitive as the numbers suggest and an ideal opportunity for MICKMACMAGOOLE to follow up last Friday's comfortable Exeter success. Rapscallion heads the list of each-way alternativesInstalled as fav again based on an easy last win - remember winners in handicaps always go up in weight. Mick Mac is top weight here and we have conditional jockeys in the saddle - not the ideal. 11 of the 18 runners are 33/1 or bigger in the betting forecast, and Mickmac will find it more difficult to win today.On the plus side he won in a conditional jockeys handicap last time under John Flavin. This screams out place only bet with 4 the place. You will, of course, get evens or over given the race type and field size and he may be worth the investment but we know all about big fields and potential hazards. Add to this the ground being good to soft and this being the last race of the day, I'll leave the decision up to you.YES - won readily in similar race last time for same jockey - potential quantity over quality race with 11 runners at 33/1 or bigger betting forecast. Significant price gap - progressive form this jumps seasonNO - big field=potential mistakes -conditionaljockeys lack tactical nouse - good to soft ground and last race of day in ground which may cut up due to previous races100 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Coronado´s Gold, 4/1 Arctic Cove, 9/2 All In, 5/1 Bold Pioneer, 6/1 Mr Ex, 10/1 Ginger´s Star, 12/1 Tammy, 16/1 Cwm Chwefru .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CORONADO'S GOLD (nap) should be able to stretch his stamina to win at this level and he gets the vote. All In will be suited by a return to this ground and could be best of the remainder.[EMW]I thought I'd shae this one as a potential each way race (8 runners) but one which doesn't pass my inspection! The first sign of n open race is the price of the perceived outsider -16/1 - hardly an outsider's price. There is no noticeable price gap between place prospects at 4/1 to 6/1 and the perceived outsiders - Ginger's star cannot be safely discounted at 10/1 and, as already referred to, the 2 outsiders are 12/1 and 16/1 indicating they're not quite the " write them off" outsiders. So a no bet race but I thought I'd give my reasonings
One of those days today alas - either the fields are too big, or they're too small. Remember, the bookie has to price up every race but we have the advantage of being selective .
FOOTY
Champions LEague this evening may offer some respite
MAn Utd take on Sporting Lisbon after Fergie did a "Rafa" at the weekend snd shuffled the pack ,and the team looked lacklustre to be honest. TEvez doesn't seem to click without Rooney. They are odds on to beat Sporting Lisbon this evening at Old Trafford and generally get the job done. I would like to see the team sheet before deciding on a wager. After the debacle at Bolton, Fergie will not want to lose this match but Sporting may prove tough opposition. A lay of Sporting for me - I cannot see MAn Utd losing this.
Lyon are at home to BArcelona who are odds against -an appealing 11/8. Barca have taken time to break opponents down domestically and their away form is bad in all competitions. Lyon are worth a lay at 8/5 I think, with one eye on trading.
You remember my last mug punter accumulator was let down by Man Utd ( see why I advocate laying accumulators!) well, I'm at it again with Inter and Watford standing out-the double paying just over evens. No doubt one team will draw as is the case with accumulators when yours truly gets stuck inStuttgart v Rangers looks interesting from an under 2.5 goal perspective. The containing job Rangers did against BArca could be replicated tonight as they look to adopt another defensive formation. One up top means a diminished goal threat for Rangers, and teh defensive line up could present a tough hurdle for Stuttgart - that's the theory anyway - watch out for 3-3 halftime!!Arsenal are a big price 11/4 away to Sevilla who lost to MAjorca at the weekend indicating their favourite status might be at risk. If Arsenal are to do it, I see it being by only one goalArsenal +0.5 goals on the ASian HAndicap at 1.82 looks reasonableArsenal +0.5 If Arsenal draw or win If Sevilla win
£82.00 -£100.00A lay of Sevilla/Sevilla HAlf time/full time at 3.85 is generally short enough to get involved in for small stakes.From a sequencing perspective, Swansea and HArtlepool have drawn their last 2 games, albeit not recent meetings. Looking at it from a purely sequencing perpective and nothing else, perhaps a lay of the draw here might pay off?
Notts Forest - backing the 1-0 (odds of 7.8), 2-0 (odds of 7.2) and 2-1 (odds of 10) on BEtfair may be a way in for those put off by the match odds. Lincoln have not scored away from home in the last 2 outings. Forest have scored 2 clear goals last 2 home games - so 2-1 has to be included. To be honest you could also back Lincoln at 13 to win outright and the draw at 5.5.So odds would be7.87.21013.55.5BEcause the lowest odds are 5.5, we can back all of the above to level stakes and still profit if one of them comes in ( a slight break even position on the draw) You may like to leave the draw out to enhance payouts. It looks an interesting bet ( cue 3-1 Forest!)
Monday, 26 November 2007
26/11
Well ,who did you pick, Cedrus Libani or Tramantino in this toss of a coin race ?- Cedrus won. Butler Cabin - non runner. GEm Daly came 2nd for each way backers and TEam geist came 3rd -I mentioned loading the place only part of this bet and that would have paid off. Jermaine Defoe - what a plonker ! Missed a penalty and scuppered the over 2.5 goals in the London Derby. As a trade ,though, the over 2.5 goals price reduced sufficiently for a marginal profit. Getafe scored first which was great for those wise enough to back on betfair and utilise trading. Zaragoza equalised in the 81st minute alas but the odds would have shortened sufficiently for another successful trade.
A pleasing day with each way bets placing as we await the winner to come.
One horse to take out of yesterday was Souffleur. He did have a marginal price gap and the words " hard to get away from" but I missed putting him up. THe jockey describes the horse as a "f****ing machine" - keep him in your note book. HE traded at 60 in running yet won with the jockey sipping cognac and reading the Sunday supplements in his slippers. Could be the next big thing - you read it here first!
Soft ground at Ayr today is not ideal at all. I did look at Fair Hills BAba for a possible each way bet in in the 110.
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Panthera Leo, 11/4 Viking Rebel, 7/2 Fair Hills Baba, 10/1 Heez A Steel, 14/1 Bewery Man, 20/1 Inverlochy Lad, 25/1 Box Wallah, Etxalar, Tycheros, 100/1 High Delight.
Plenty of outsiders and 2 market leaders - Viking Rebel is joint fav at 7/4 early morning prices, but I am wary that the soft ground may mean the first 3 won't occupy the 1-2-3 placings
140 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wee Forbees, 15/8 Ballyvoge, 5/1 Witch Wind, 11/2 Sonny Liston, 20/1 Royal Mackintosh, 25/1 Dalawan, Maura´s Legacy, Rathowen, 33/1 Nasrha, 50/1 President Hill, 100/1 Scarecrow, Stormont Dawn, 150/1 Happy Boy.
Again soft ground and the look of a 2 horse race in this beginners chase. Witch wind now trades at 10/1 and Sonny Liston at 25/1. Obviously there is a huge difference of opinion between the betting forecaster and the live market. I am going to chance Sonny Liston and Witch Win each way incase the betting forecaster has correctly identified the 4 horses he has priced up before 20/1 as the main protagonists. Not a confident bet at all given the soft ground and the big field. I see a potential big priced horse entering the frame but there are too many candidates -after all with beginners chases we have no real reliable form in the chasing sphere to look at
130 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 One More Round, 11/4 China Cherub, 11/2 Onenightinlisbon, 7/1 Chief Exec, 8/1 Bustan, 14/1 Mozakhraf, Pivotal Era, 16/1 White Bear, 66/1 Ceredig, 100/1 Only If I Laugh .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The trip will inconvenience ONE MORE ROUND less than the dropped-in-grade China Cherub and he can follow up his victory here the other day.[GN]Bustan is out, and there are 4 runners priced as outsiders leaving 5 with place chances. One night in Lisbon is the obvious one but why is Chief Exec showing at 33/1 in the morning prices and 7/1 with the betting forecaster - very odd
220 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Gan Eagla, Herecomestanley, 4/1 Marked Man, 7/1 Rajam, 8/1 Spring Lover, 10/1 Fu Manchu, 12/1 Rooster´s Reunion, 16/1 Glimmer Of Light.
10/3 the field - 8 runner race - 3 priced 16/1 or greater. LEaves us with Herecomesstanley, Gan Eagla, marked man Rajam and Spring Lover. I will chance Herecomesstanley each way here
A lack of choice today with generally big fields and soft ground making me reluctant to get involved at Ayr. I hope the chosen selections can be competitive for a place at least
A pleasing day with each way bets placing as we await the winner to come.
One horse to take out of yesterday was Souffleur. He did have a marginal price gap and the words " hard to get away from" but I missed putting him up. THe jockey describes the horse as a "f****ing machine" - keep him in your note book. HE traded at 60 in running yet won with the jockey sipping cognac and reading the Sunday supplements in his slippers. Could be the next big thing - you read it here first!
Soft ground at Ayr today is not ideal at all. I did look at Fair Hills BAba for a possible each way bet in in the 110.
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Panthera Leo, 11/4 Viking Rebel, 7/2 Fair Hills Baba, 10/1 Heez A Steel, 14/1 Bewery Man, 20/1 Inverlochy Lad, 25/1 Box Wallah, Etxalar, Tycheros, 100/1 High Delight.
Plenty of outsiders and 2 market leaders - Viking Rebel is joint fav at 7/4 early morning prices, but I am wary that the soft ground may mean the first 3 won't occupy the 1-2-3 placings
140 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wee Forbees, 15/8 Ballyvoge, 5/1 Witch Wind, 11/2 Sonny Liston, 20/1 Royal Mackintosh, 25/1 Dalawan, Maura´s Legacy, Rathowen, 33/1 Nasrha, 50/1 President Hill, 100/1 Scarecrow, Stormont Dawn, 150/1 Happy Boy.
Again soft ground and the look of a 2 horse race in this beginners chase. Witch wind now trades at 10/1 and Sonny Liston at 25/1. Obviously there is a huge difference of opinion between the betting forecaster and the live market. I am going to chance Sonny Liston and Witch Win each way incase the betting forecaster has correctly identified the 4 horses he has priced up before 20/1 as the main protagonists. Not a confident bet at all given the soft ground and the big field. I see a potential big priced horse entering the frame but there are too many candidates -after all with beginners chases we have no real reliable form in the chasing sphere to look at
130 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 One More Round, 11/4 China Cherub, 11/2 Onenightinlisbon, 7/1 Chief Exec, 8/1 Bustan, 14/1 Mozakhraf, Pivotal Era, 16/1 White Bear, 66/1 Ceredig, 100/1 Only If I Laugh .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The trip will inconvenience ONE MORE ROUND less than the dropped-in-grade China Cherub and he can follow up his victory here the other day.[GN]Bustan is out, and there are 4 runners priced as outsiders leaving 5 with place chances. One night in Lisbon is the obvious one but why is Chief Exec showing at 33/1 in the morning prices and 7/1 with the betting forecaster - very odd
220 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Gan Eagla, Herecomestanley, 4/1 Marked Man, 7/1 Rajam, 8/1 Spring Lover, 10/1 Fu Manchu, 12/1 Rooster´s Reunion, 16/1 Glimmer Of Light.
10/3 the field - 8 runner race - 3 priced 16/1 or greater. LEaves us with Herecomesstanley, Gan Eagla, marked man Rajam and Spring Lover. I will chance Herecomesstanley each way here
A lack of choice today with generally big fields and soft ground making me reluctant to get involved at Ayr. I hope the chosen selections can be competitive for a place at least
Sunday, 25 November 2007
25/11
Hardy Eustace won, Pouvoir was a gallant 2nd having run out of petrol when leading in the final few yards. I was expecting perhaps too much for Taranis to win in such a big and competitive field but I thought the price gap merited some kind of backing - place only backers would have seen a return as he came in 4th. Well done to KAuto Star, in ground not ideal, he still managed to win and place only backers were happy. With Rajeh disappointing, I only really had Gauvain running for me, and that one finished 2nd. WHy can't they all be like Racing Demon? Never a doubt and worthy of inclusion in my betting plans even at 1/3 against one rival.The 2 races I put up to back 3 horses to level stakes shouldn't strictly have been considered as at least one horse was below 3/1 in both races, and I did mention this. This veers from the usual each way option and ,although we were successful with a 9/1 shot the other day using this, perhaps over jumps it's not worth doing.BAnknote unplaced
You'll notice the acca was a "mug punter's " acca, and time and time again, one team lets you down. I am disappointed because I did not account for Bolton's recent performance against Bayern Munich, or Man Utd's slightly weakened team -you now know why accas are the bookies favourites and why I advocated laying these in the multiples, but I couldn't resist yesterday. Over 2.5 goals were slo close with 2 2-0's. Backing Arsenal overs half time as suggested would have allowed a marginal trading profit with the 2 late goals. I really didn't think it would take them nearlyy 80 minutes to break through. This is a general pattern isn't it with bottom versus top - EVENTUALLY......
Liverpool were great as were Portsmouth scoring the first goal. BAyern Munich won, but at 2/9 it's not great shakes losing the liability on that one - about £20 for every £100 profit
I'll stick with traditional each ways today - yesterday 1st (Hardy) 2nd(pouvoir) and unplaced(Banknote)
105 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Tramantano, 5/4 Cedrus Libani .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tramantano boasts the better form but CEDRUS LIBANI may be a more straightforward conveyance and is taken to add to his recent chasing debut success
A 2 horse race ,bookies can't split them - they can't offer evens the pair otherwise there's no profit margin. One for the twin cycles with ease. You could select one horse and hope he wins -it's just strange to find a r2 horse race where they can't be split
325 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Butler´s Cabin, 11/2 Action Strasse, 8/1 Stolen Moments, 12/1 Go For One, Pimbury, 14/1 Sea Senor, 16/1 Seize, Spare Me, 20/1 Ballabriggs, Clear The Way, Coq Hardi, 25/1 Original Fly, 100/1 Leprechaun´s Maite .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these, such as Stolen Moments, Action Strasse and Pimbury, would have been very interesting in normal circumstances and they can count themselves most unlucky to be meeting the very classy chaser BUTLER'S CABIN on terms so favourable to him
ANother price gapper a la Taranis. 13 runners and good to soft ground. This is also the last race at the course so the ground will have cut up over previous races.
Looks an ideal trading horse to back before the off and lay off in incrementsd - right man on board - I'm just worried about the ground.
1255 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Rathmore Castle, 7/2 Antipode, 9/2 Liskennett, 5/1 Clew Bay Lodge, Major Finnegan, 6/1 Gem Daly, 7/1 Life For Rent, 14/1 Deal Maker, 16/1 Bob Lingo, 66/1 Dai Lo.
3 horses priced 50/1 or over reduce the field to 7, take away Rathnmore castle at 2/1 and we have 6 fighting for 2 place only payouts. The market is tight with the remaining horses and the hope is we can select on e who can place at least. Gem Daly each way for me
205 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Gansey, 11/4 Teamgeist, 6/1 Strong Coffee, 8/1 Noble Ben, 12/1 Aimigayle, Galoshes, Red Rattle, 16/1 Wheres Johnny, 25/1 Orfeo Conti, The Speaker, 33/1 Shortgate Lane, 100/1 Willow Hall,
11/4 is a reasonable each way price for Teamgeist who should be competitive for the place at least, preference is for the place only aspect of the bet with a little on for the win only
7 of the field are 25/1 and over which, theoretically , reduces rivals
Soft ground at TOwcester is off putting
FOOTBALL
West Midlands Derby at 12, and West Brom really have a great home record, but this goes out of the window on derby days. . I'll be looking for West Brom to consolidate good recent results and edge this. I'll be laying Wolves here again as a trade and NOT a bet
West Ham V Spuds -it's got to be over 2.5 goals this game surely (and don't call me Shirley) - I can see West Ham conceding and I can see the Spuds conceding. Doubtless this will remain 0-0 but I will chance the over 2.5 goals trade. I hope for an early goal as the opportunitiy might be there to trade out of the bet quickly. I realise with a new man in charge of SPurs we might see a tightened defence (you never know, it is panto season!) but I am also aware that he brought exciting attacking football to Sevilla. So over 2.5 goals it'll be then!
GEtafe away to Zaragoza represents a speculative punt at 11/4. They have been mighty impressive against REal and Barca recently and really seem to have been galvanised by Michael Laudrup. It's no mortgage job but worthy of a small interest especially if the game is in running
You'll notice the acca was a "mug punter's " acca, and time and time again, one team lets you down. I am disappointed because I did not account for Bolton's recent performance against Bayern Munich, or Man Utd's slightly weakened team -you now know why accas are the bookies favourites and why I advocated laying these in the multiples, but I couldn't resist yesterday. Over 2.5 goals were slo close with 2 2-0's. Backing Arsenal overs half time as suggested would have allowed a marginal trading profit with the 2 late goals. I really didn't think it would take them nearlyy 80 minutes to break through. This is a general pattern isn't it with bottom versus top - EVENTUALLY......
Liverpool were great as were Portsmouth scoring the first goal. BAyern Munich won, but at 2/9 it's not great shakes losing the liability on that one - about £20 for every £100 profit
I'll stick with traditional each ways today - yesterday 1st (Hardy) 2nd(pouvoir) and unplaced(Banknote)
105 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Tramantano, 5/4 Cedrus Libani .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tramantano boasts the better form but CEDRUS LIBANI may be a more straightforward conveyance and is taken to add to his recent chasing debut success
A 2 horse race ,bookies can't split them - they can't offer evens the pair otherwise there's no profit margin. One for the twin cycles with ease. You could select one horse and hope he wins -it's just strange to find a r2 horse race where they can't be split
325 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Butler´s Cabin, 11/2 Action Strasse, 8/1 Stolen Moments, 12/1 Go For One, Pimbury, 14/1 Sea Senor, 16/1 Seize, Spare Me, 20/1 Ballabriggs, Clear The Way, Coq Hardi, 25/1 Original Fly, 100/1 Leprechaun´s Maite .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these, such as Stolen Moments, Action Strasse and Pimbury, would have been very interesting in normal circumstances and they can count themselves most unlucky to be meeting the very classy chaser BUTLER'S CABIN on terms so favourable to him
ANother price gapper a la Taranis. 13 runners and good to soft ground. This is also the last race at the course so the ground will have cut up over previous races.
Looks an ideal trading horse to back before the off and lay off in incrementsd - right man on board - I'm just worried about the ground.
1255 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Rathmore Castle, 7/2 Antipode, 9/2 Liskennett, 5/1 Clew Bay Lodge, Major Finnegan, 6/1 Gem Daly, 7/1 Life For Rent, 14/1 Deal Maker, 16/1 Bob Lingo, 66/1 Dai Lo.
3 horses priced 50/1 or over reduce the field to 7, take away Rathnmore castle at 2/1 and we have 6 fighting for 2 place only payouts. The market is tight with the remaining horses and the hope is we can select on e who can place at least. Gem Daly each way for me
205 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Gansey, 11/4 Teamgeist, 6/1 Strong Coffee, 8/1 Noble Ben, 12/1 Aimigayle, Galoshes, Red Rattle, 16/1 Wheres Johnny, 25/1 Orfeo Conti, The Speaker, 33/1 Shortgate Lane, 100/1 Willow Hall,
11/4 is a reasonable each way price for Teamgeist who should be competitive for the place at least, preference is for the place only aspect of the bet with a little on for the win only
7 of the field are 25/1 and over which, theoretically , reduces rivals
Soft ground at TOwcester is off putting
FOOTBALL
West Midlands Derby at 12, and West Brom really have a great home record, but this goes out of the window on derby days. . I'll be looking for West Brom to consolidate good recent results and edge this. I'll be laying Wolves here again as a trade and NOT a bet
West Ham V Spuds -it's got to be over 2.5 goals this game surely (and don't call me Shirley) - I can see West Ham conceding and I can see the Spuds conceding. Doubtless this will remain 0-0 but I will chance the over 2.5 goals trade. I hope for an early goal as the opportunitiy might be there to trade out of the bet quickly. I realise with a new man in charge of SPurs we might see a tightened defence (you never know, it is panto season!) but I am also aware that he brought exciting attacking football to Sevilla. So over 2.5 goals it'll be then!
GEtafe away to Zaragoza represents a speculative punt at 11/4. They have been mighty impressive against REal and Barca recently and really seem to have been galvanised by Michael Laudrup. It's no mortgage job but worthy of a small interest especially if the game is in running
Saturday, 24 November 2007
24/11
No blog yesterday thanks to broadband problems
150 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Afsoun, 11/4 Hardy Eustace, 4/1 Detroit City, 9/2 Wichita Lineman, 16/1 Kings Quay, 25/1 Overstrand, 33/1 Lough Derg, 50/1 Cloone River .
Hardy Eustace each way at around 3/1 looks to have a great chance of placing and being competitive at the business end. The betting forecast puts up 4 horses with the best chance
Detroit City was ailing last 2 runs . Wichita Lineman is another with each way prospects, but Hardy's the one for me.
105 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Gwanako, 7/2 Pouvoir, 9/2 Grand Bleu, 5/1 Degas Art, 8/1 Boulavogue, 9/1 Pigeon Island, 11/1 En La Cruz, 12/1 Mister Benedictine .
An onteresting race but 12/1 the perceived outsider shows it's a tight affair. This is not reflected, though, in the early market with the outside 2 horses quoted 20/1 or bigger. I think Pouvoir is positioned to be competitive for a palce and perhaps the win, and he looks a good each way prospect under Choc Thornton
135 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Taranis, 8/1 Halcon Genelardais, Sonnyanjoe, Ungaro, 10/1 Old Benny, 12/1 Burntoakboy, 16/1 De Soto, Fair Question, Special Envoy, 25/1 Millenium Royal, Mister McGoldrick, Monolith, Redemption, 33/1 Coat Of Honour, Desert Tommy, Eric´s Charm, Rambling Minster, 50/1 Si Grand .
An interesting price gap here for Taranis who is priced to exploit his low mark. IT's a big field and the safer bet is the place only bet on Taranis but if you fancied backing the horse to mop this race up with his great rating then you'll get a very decent win only price relative to usual price gappers. No real positives from Sptlight save the information about the low rating.
205 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Kauto Star, 11/4 My Way De Solzen, 13/2 Exotic Dancer, 10/1 Turpin Green, 20/1 Beef Or Salmon, Ollie Magern, 40/1 Offshore Account .
A magnificent horse who lost last race . In this 7 runner affair we can write off 3 horses at 20/1 or bigger although Beef or Salmon is tempting at the odds. Kauto has obvious place only options and with 2 the place we'll get reasonable odds
125 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Rajeh, 11/4 Gauvain, 6/1 Pacha D´Oudairies, 7/1 Swordsman, 20/1 Merchant Red, Poker Queen, 25/1 Silver Mont, 33/1 Grooms Affection, Smart John, 50/1 Twenti Twenti, 66/1 Winds Of Change, 100/1 Classic Hall, 500/1 Littleton Aldor, Stunning Magic .
RAjeh and GAuvain are both over evens at present and can be backed to level stakes - it looks a straight match up despite the field size
335 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Racing Demon, 5/4 Aces Four, 14/1 Natal,
A 2 horse race with Aces Four out. A chance to back a 1/3 shot who, as long as he stands up, should have this race. Of course Natal, at 11/4 is the value in a 2 horse race, but his original quote of 14/1 shows that he has his work cut out. I'll back Racing Demon pre race and trade out in running
1205 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ever Cheerful, 3/1 Rhapsilian, 9/2 Stormburst, 5/1 Zazous, 10/1 Mulberry Lad, 14/1 Christian Bendix, 20/1 Mind Alert, Thoughtsofstardom, 25/1 Lost All Alone, 33/1 Regal Royale, 100/1 Parkside Pursuit.
With the 3 main protagonists at 3/1 or greater, we can back them to level stakes and still profit if Ever cheerful, Rhapsilian or Storm buster win. THis will only work if the shortest price of this triumphirate is 3/1
315 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gentleman´s Deal, 3/1 Banknote, Grand Passion, 7/1 Millville, 10/1 Kinsya, 16/1 Kahlua Kiss, Vainglory, 33/1 World Spirit, 50/1 Voliere .
4 perceived outsiders - perhaps we can look each way here - BAnknote for me each way
FOOTBALL
Some interesting footy today, and ,yes, I might put my mug punters' head on and back MAn Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal along with BArcelona and Raith Rovers - it pays out 3.08 . No doubt someone will draw but this represents reasonable odds. Raith Rovers are playing away from home and are quoted at 2/9. Barcelona are at home, and provided they have the usual suspects playing they should win.
Over 2.5 goals trades look good in the Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea games, although I would expect, with Derby and Wigan, that their opponents may find it difficult to break the teams down. If the games remain 0-0 at half time, I would back over 2.5 goals at half time at enhanced odds with an eye to trading. We've seen it time and time again with top versus bottom. Derby, Wigan, Brum all make things extremely difficult but class eventually tells.
Liverpool look great odds away to Newcastle although a lay of Newcastle would cover the draw. Michale "sicknote" Owen is out, and although Obafemi Martins is a superb replacement I see Liverpool NOT losing this game.
I am considering laying BAyern Munich at 2/9 if the game is in running . They have faultered recently but I suspect they will secure the 3 points. They beat Wolfsburg 2-1 last time but previous head to heads have been inconclusive. BAyern must win to consolidate themselves at the head of the Bundesliga, but it may take them a while to get the breakthrough.
Birmingham at home face a red hot Pompey, and again Brum may be worth laying so we cover the draw. Portsmouth should score some time and if they score first, this will be ideal for a trade.
150 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Afsoun, 11/4 Hardy Eustace, 4/1 Detroit City, 9/2 Wichita Lineman, 16/1 Kings Quay, 25/1 Overstrand, 33/1 Lough Derg, 50/1 Cloone River .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HARDY EUSTACE (nap) was as good as ever last season save for rather a flat effort on his last start and, with his trainer having been positive in recent quotes, it is worth taking the chance that his 10yo retains all of his ability. If he does, a repeat of last year's win is likely. Afsoun and Wichita Lineman command respect but most resistance may come from Detroit City, conqueror of Hardy Eustace in a muddling Bula Hurdle last December and a big threat if over whatever what was ailing him on last season's final two starts. |
Detroit City was ailing last 2 runs . Wichita Lineman is another with each way prospects, but Hardy's the one for me.
105 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Gwanako, 7/2 Pouvoir, 9/2 Grand Bleu, 5/1 Degas Art, 8/1 Boulavogue, 9/1 Pigeon Island, 11/1 En La Cruz, 12/1 Mister Benedictine .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Highly competitive despite the modest field size. GWANAKO was quite impressive in beating Pouvoir at Chepstow considering he was expected to need the run and, although that rival has run well again since, the selection is taken to confirm the placings and defy his hefty rise in the handicap. Grand Bleu, so impressive here last term, also has to be considered, particularly if the ground were to soften |
135 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Taranis, 8/1 Halcon Genelardais, Sonnyanjoe, Ungaro, 10/1 Old Benny, 12/1 Burntoakboy, 16/1 De Soto, Fair Question, Special Envoy, 25/1 Millenium Royal, Mister McGoldrick, Monolith, Redemption, 33/1 Coat Of Honour, Desert Tommy, Eric´s Charm, Rambling Minster, 50/1 Si Grand .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Classy chaser TARANIS (nap), who successfully switched between hurdles and fences last term, could have been delivered an early Christmas present here in the form of one of the season's valuable handicaps over fixed-brush hurdles as he can race off a mark the best part of two stone lower than his chase rating. Ungaro looks an interesting each-way alternative despite his trainer's nagging concern he may be better going right-handed |
An interesting price gap here for Taranis who is priced to exploit his low mark. IT's a big field and the safer bet is the place only bet on Taranis but if you fancied backing the horse to mop this race up with his great rating then you'll get a very decent win only price relative to usual price gappers. No real positives from Sptlight save the information about the low rating.
205 HAYDOCK
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although it was undeniably disappointing to see KAUTO STAR in such trouble so early on his reappearance, he hasn't been given the credit he deserves for clawing his way back into the race and it seems churlish not to give him a chance back over 3m at level weights when there can be no excuses about ground, trip or fitness. My Way de Solzen has the chasing world at his feet and is feared most, though Exotic Dancer is bound to leave his reappearance form well behind and Turpin Green goes really well fresh |
125 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Rajeh, 11/4 Gauvain, 6/1 Pacha D´Oudairies, 7/1 Swordsman, 20/1 Merchant Red, Poker Queen, 25/1 Silver Mont, 33/1 Grooms Affection, Smart John, 50/1 Twenti Twenti, 66/1 Winds Of Change, 100/1 Classic Hall, 500/1 Littleton Aldor, Stunning Magic .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are races to be won with Gauvain, but he will need to be spot-on for this return to cope with RAJEH who only just lost out to the very progressive Platin Grounds at Cheltenham last time and will be well suited by today's sharper track |
335 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Racing Demon, 5/4 Aces Four, 14/1 Natal,
A 2 horse race with Aces Four out. A chance to back a 1/3 shot who, as long as he stands up, should have this race. Of course Natal, at 11/4 is the value in a 2 horse race, but his original quote of 14/1 shows that he has his work cut out. I'll back Racing Demon pre race and trade out in running
1205 LINGFIELD
With the 3 main protagonists at 3/1 or greater, we can back them to level stakes and still profit if Ever cheerful, Rhapsilian or Storm buster win. THis will only work if the shortest price of this triumphirate is 3/1
315 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gentleman´s Deal, 3/1 Banknote, Grand Passion, 7/1 Millville, 10/1 Kinsya, 16/1 Kahlua Kiss, Vainglory, 33/1 World Spirit, 50/1 Voliere .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Back on an artificial surface, Winter Derby winner GENTLEMAN'S DEAL can stretch his unbeaten AW record to eight at the expense of Grand Passion and Banknote.[AC] |
FOOTBALL
Some interesting footy today, and ,yes, I might put my mug punters' head on and back MAn Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal along with BArcelona and Raith Rovers - it pays out 3.08 . No doubt someone will draw but this represents reasonable odds. Raith Rovers are playing away from home and are quoted at 2/9. Barcelona are at home, and provided they have the usual suspects playing they should win.
Over 2.5 goals trades look good in the Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea games, although I would expect, with Derby and Wigan, that their opponents may find it difficult to break the teams down. If the games remain 0-0 at half time, I would back over 2.5 goals at half time at enhanced odds with an eye to trading. We've seen it time and time again with top versus bottom. Derby, Wigan, Brum all make things extremely difficult but class eventually tells.
Liverpool look great odds away to Newcastle although a lay of Newcastle would cover the draw. Michale "sicknote" Owen is out, and although Obafemi Martins is a superb replacement I see Liverpool NOT losing this game.
I am considering laying BAyern Munich at 2/9 if the game is in running . They have faultered recently but I suspect they will secure the 3 points. They beat Wolfsburg 2-1 last time but previous head to heads have been inconclusive. BAyern must win to consolidate themselves at the head of the Bundesliga, but it may take them a while to get the breakthrough.
Birmingham at home face a red hot Pompey, and again Brum may be worth laying so we cover the draw. Portsmouth should score some time and if they score first, this will be ideal for a trade.
Thursday, 22 November 2007
22/11
4th for Safari Run -should have left heavy ground alone - discipline! Tralanza lost in another dodgy 2 year old maiden and Altos REalos unplaced which was a surpiise although mention was made that there was no real positivity from Spotlight. BAcking the 3 against Ouzbeck paid off with 9/1 winner Prince Taime. Well Crouch and LAmpard scored for my goalscorer bets, BEcks was 10/1 because he started from the bench, which added gloss to a dismal racing day. I hope the lay of England was chosen rather than the under 2.5 goals bet - what with Willie Carson in goal ! In the Irish game why didn't I select unders if I thought it would be close - Spain scored early and the odds went down to 1.14 which was not what I wanted but a 1-0 scoreline always allowed Northern ireland a chance but they couldn't take it
150 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Pace Shot, 5/1 Soviet Sceptre, 6/1 Arthurs Dream, 10/1 Mondo, 11/1 Coup D´Etat, 22/1 Rhetorical, 25/1 Star Berry, 33/1 Breeder´s Folly, Silver Island, 50/1 Lake Suprima, Tamworth, 66/1 Lucky Shame .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around PACE SHOT, who was much better class than these rivals when last seen out in April 2006. It is a touch disconcerting to see him reintroduced at this level but, on the other hand, the stable have adopted a similar strategy on occasion in the past with long-absent horses and, if a significant proportion of his former ability remains, he will be very hard to beat A 500+ day absence in a seller is not what I want to see - yes "if a significant proportion of his former ability remains, he will be very hard to beat"but that's a bit "if" and although Pace Shot may be able to over come the absebce in this class drop, I won't entertain an odds on shot in a race of this type.
230 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Shanxi Girl, 3/1 Hugo Wolf, 11/2 Saint Godegrand, 6/1 Maori Legend, 8/1 M´Lord, 10/1 Farmer Brent, 25/1 Festival Flyer, 33/1 See More Jock .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: At first glance the handicapper hasn't done SHANXI GIRL any obvious favours but she shapes as though she'll improve plenty for this longer trip and, if she takes after her dam, who was a prolific winner for the stable, this course and ground will pose no problems for heIt's been a long time coming - an 8 runner field - short price fav and 2 outsiders, leaving us with 5 possible each way contenders. I will opt for Saint Godegrand
Another poor day - patience is needed - hope the above selection places at least
150 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Pace Shot, 5/1 Soviet Sceptre, 6/1 Arthurs Dream, 10/1 Mondo, 11/1 Coup D´Etat, 22/1 Rhetorical, 25/1 Star Berry, 33/1 Breeder´s Folly, Silver Island, 50/1 Lake Suprima, Tamworth, 66/1 Lucky Shame .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around PACE SHOT, who was much better class than these rivals when last seen out in April 2006. It is a touch disconcerting to see him reintroduced at this level but, on the other hand, the stable have adopted a similar strategy on occasion in the past with long-absent horses and, if a significant proportion of his former ability remains, he will be very hard to beat A 500+ day absence in a seller is not what I want to see - yes "if a significant proportion of his former ability remains, he will be very hard to beat"but that's a bit "if" and although Pace Shot may be able to over come the absebce in this class drop, I won't entertain an odds on shot in a race of this type.
230 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Shanxi Girl, 3/1 Hugo Wolf, 11/2 Saint Godegrand, 6/1 Maori Legend, 8/1 M´Lord, 10/1 Farmer Brent, 25/1 Festival Flyer, 33/1 See More Jock .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: At first glance the handicapper hasn't done SHANXI GIRL any obvious favours but she shapes as though she'll improve plenty for this longer trip and, if she takes after her dam, who was a prolific winner for the stable, this course and ground will pose no problems for heIt's been a long time coming - an 8 runner field - short price fav and 2 outsiders, leaving us with 5 possible each way contenders. I will opt for Saint Godegrand
Another poor day - patience is needed - hope the above selection places at least
Wednesday, 21 November 2007
21/11
Pindar and Ballad maker did nothing as the front 2 in the market hogged the 1-2 place leaving little chance of any of my selections placing. The ground again was a concern - seeing it live on TV really puts you off betting. The early market movers are not worth putting up so earely in the day - it is a fruitless exercise. MAtcho Pierji placed in a race won by a 66/1 horse with 33/1 2nd.
Rich Kid came 2nd in a 2 year old claimer.
I should have been more forceful in putting yesterday down as a no bet day . I suspect we'll have other days like this this winter where sitting out is more favourable to betting for the sake of it
Soft ground at Fairyhouse pretty much makes my mind up for me there. HExham is heavy ground with the first race a novices maiden hurdle! - I'm not a celebrity but get me out of here!
140 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tot O´Whiskey, 7/2 Safari Run, 9/1 Art Bank, 11/1 Andytown, 14/1 Kings Maiden, 16/1 Chernik, 20/1 Merigo, To Make Tracks, 25/1 Tinto Verano, 33/1 Exit Forty Four, 66/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, 100/1 Billsgrey .
When we face heavy ground it's always wise to look at the horses form ( yes I know this system isn't based on form) quickly just to ascertain whether the horse has run in conditions. Totowhiskey hasn't , but Safari Run has placed in heavy ground before.
750 KEMPTON
No problem with ground here
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Tralanza, 11/4 Summerofsixtynine, 11/2 Imminent Victory, 33/1 Franky´N´Jonny, 40/1 Zameliana .
Included simply because of the " should be very hard to beat" Spotlight comment - warning - 2 year old maiden and some would shirk taking 1/2 about a horse in such a race
920 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Altos Reales, 7/1 Formidable Guest, 8/1 Magic Amigo, 10/1 Henry Holmes, Karmest, Rollin ´n Tumblin, 11/1 Summer Bounty, 12/1 Larad, Lordswood, 16/1 Mariaverdi, 20/1 Piquet, 25/1 Kilmeena Magic, 40/1 Ocean Valentine, 50/1 The Stafford .
PRice gap in a big field handicap doesn't scream confidence to me. More confidence for me in the place only market, or to engineer an 80/20 bet if place odds allow - 80% of usual stake to place only, and 20% to win, in the hope if the horse places we break evenPlace only odds of 1.5 currently make this easily achieveable and we a get a profit to boot if the horse places.
Must mention there's no real " should be very hard to beat"'s here though!
1250 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Ouzbeck, 5/1 Peau Aime, 6/1 Prince Taime, 9/1 Our Choice, Pen Gwen, 10/1 Prime Number, 12/1 Luxurix, Pop, Ticket To Freedom, 16/1 Pagan Sword, 33/1 Doubly Sharp, Max Bygraves, 40/1 Rawaabet, Startengo, 50/1 Music Celebre, 100/1 Back To Normal, Bandits Pistol, Mon Chevalier .
9/10 ,yes a big price gap, 18 runners, 9 of which are debuting in the field and "had to work hard at odds on last month" hadrdly screams out get the mortgage on this fella!
An each way play could pay dividends but where to start - 9 debutants! BUT 9 horses priced at 33/1 or over - 7 of them 100/1 or bigger hints at quality instead of quantity. I'm going to try something different with this race - level stakes on Peau Aime, Prince Taime and Our choice the idea is to exploit any underperformance by the jolly.
A day with soft ground at Warwick and HEavy ground at HExham. Again those of you who don't want to risk "in the hope that" the horses perform on the going should sit this one out and wait for a better day with 8 runner fields and proper circumastances for an each way bet. The price gapper is hardly rock solid either.
FOOTBALL
Crunch time this evening, and in all games where England have needed the right results, they have obliged by the skin of their teeth. This may be the case tonight. Croatia have nothing to play for having already qualifies but the same could have been said about Israel and the boys got the result England fans hoped for. I expect the usual uninspired performance from England as well as the old nail biting as we wait for a goal. I can't see an early goal in this game at all and would trade the under 2.5 goals market with a view to getting out after 20 minutes . Alternatively a lay of England at current odds ,BUT not as a 90 minute bet, rather as a trade. The odds should increase as the stale mate 0-0 remains as is.
If a goal was to be scored, then I would expect it to come from Peter Crouch, Frank LAmpard or BEckham free kick (if he plays) and I may consider backing these 3 to level stakes
Spain face Northern Ireland tonight and are very short odds on to win the game , but Denmark were also short odds. Living in Ireland I've been receiving more coverage of the Northern Ireland boys who were stout against Sweden and managed a win ( pitch conditions suited) against Denmark. Spain are short enough at 1/6 and are worth laying FROM A TRADING PERSPECTIVE ONLY. I would envisage a very defensive set up from Northern Ireland who may be able to hold out long enough for the market on betfair to react by pushing the Spanish price higher than when we backed it This may be a bridge too fire for the Irish, but in David HEaly they have a superb striker in the international stage - a snaky small stakes bet on him to score any time will be at decent odds.
Rich Kid came 2nd in a 2 year old claimer.
I should have been more forceful in putting yesterday down as a no bet day . I suspect we'll have other days like this this winter where sitting out is more favourable to betting for the sake of it
Soft ground at Fairyhouse pretty much makes my mind up for me there. HExham is heavy ground with the first race a novices maiden hurdle! - I'm not a celebrity but get me out of here!
140 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tot O´Whiskey, 7/2 Safari Run, 9/1 Art Bank, 11/1 Andytown, 14/1 Kings Maiden, 16/1 Chernik, 20/1 Merigo, To Make Tracks, 25/1 Tinto Verano, 33/1 Exit Forty Four, 66/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, 100/1 Billsgrey .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOT O'WHISKEY is likely to prove better than the bare form of his hurdles debut success and is preferred to Safari Run |
750 KEMPTON
No problem with ground here
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Tralanza, 11/4 Summerofsixtynine, 11/2 Imminent Victory, 33/1 Franky´N´Jonny, 40/1 Zameliana .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRALANZA shaped like she should stay this trip when fourth over 10.5f on AW at Dundalk in September, sets a clear standard on form and should be very hard to beat. |
920 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Altos Reales, 7/1 Formidable Guest, 8/1 Magic Amigo, 10/1 Henry Holmes, Karmest, Rollin ´n Tumblin, 11/1 Summer Bounty, 12/1 Larad, Lordswood, 16/1 Mariaverdi, 20/1 Piquet, 25/1 Kilmeena Magic, 40/1 Ocean Valentine, 50/1 The Stafford .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALTOS REALES, weighted to confirm last week's C&D superiority over Formidable Guest and from an in-form stable, looks the one to be on, though a market move for Rollin 'N Tumblin could be worth heeding |
PRice gap in a big field handicap doesn't scream confidence to me. More confidence for me in the place only market, or to engineer an 80/20 bet if place odds allow - 80% of usual stake to place only, and 20% to win, in the hope if the horse places we break evenPlace only odds of 1.5 currently make this easily achieveable and we a get a profit to boot if the horse places.
Must mention there's no real " should be very hard to beat"'s here though!
1250 WARWICK
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OUZBECK had to work hard at odds on last month but his earlier Wincanton effort sets the standard. Several of these have shown up in bumpers or demonstrated well above-average ability on the Flat and Peau Aime and Prince Taime are among those that could emerge as serious dangers.[RA] |
9/10 ,yes a big price gap, 18 runners, 9 of which are debuting in the field and "had to work hard at odds on last month" hadrdly screams out get the mortgage on this fella!
An each way play could pay dividends but where to start - 9 debutants! BUT 9 horses priced at 33/1 or over - 7 of them 100/1 or bigger hints at quality instead of quantity. I'm going to try something different with this race - level stakes on Peau Aime, Prince Taime and Our choice the idea is to exploit any underperformance by the jolly.
A day with soft ground at Warwick and HEavy ground at HExham. Again those of you who don't want to risk "in the hope that" the horses perform on the going should sit this one out and wait for a better day with 8 runner fields and proper circumastances for an each way bet. The price gapper is hardly rock solid either.
FOOTBALL
Crunch time this evening, and in all games where England have needed the right results, they have obliged by the skin of their teeth. This may be the case tonight. Croatia have nothing to play for having already qualifies but the same could have been said about Israel and the boys got the result England fans hoped for. I expect the usual uninspired performance from England as well as the old nail biting as we wait for a goal. I can't see an early goal in this game at all and would trade the under 2.5 goals market with a view to getting out after 20 minutes . Alternatively a lay of England at current odds ,BUT not as a 90 minute bet, rather as a trade. The odds should increase as the stale mate 0-0 remains as is.
If a goal was to be scored, then I would expect it to come from Peter Crouch, Frank LAmpard or BEckham free kick (if he plays) and I may consider backing these 3 to level stakes
Spain face Northern Ireland tonight and are very short odds on to win the game , but Denmark were also short odds. Living in Ireland I've been receiving more coverage of the Northern Ireland boys who were stout against Sweden and managed a win ( pitch conditions suited) against Denmark. Spain are short enough at 1/6 and are worth laying FROM A TRADING PERSPECTIVE ONLY. I would envisage a very defensive set up from Northern Ireland who may be able to hold out long enough for the market on betfair to react by pushing the Spanish price higher than when we backed it This may be a bridge too fire for the Irish, but in David HEaly they have a superb striker in the international stage - a snaky small stakes bet on him to score any time will be at decent odds.
Tuesday, 20 November 2007
20/11
I must admit to surprise when High Esteem won as easily as he did in such a low grade affair but it was welcome. The cayterers also came in at 3/1 to take advantage of the jolly's absence and Present placed at 6/1 for each way backers. The galling thing is Approved, 4/1 in the betting forecast, and the horse next to Present in the betting forecast won at 11/1! It's the luck of the draw alas - if I'd have chosen the 3rd fav instead of the 4th I'd have been smiling for a week!
FAkenham begins with a selling handicap hurdle - hope that doesn't signal another poor day's racing
200 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dr McFab, 5/2 Kanonkop, 8/1 Pindar, 14/1 Kassuta, 20/1 Directa´s Digger, 25/1 Ballad Maker, 33/1 Feeling Peckish, Safe Investment, 100/1 First Frost, Ranavalona .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many to seriously consider and KANONKOP (nap) looks a live alternative to Dr McFab on these terms.[AWJ]This looks a tricky race to decipher with 4 debutants. I'll make mention of BAllad MAker ,currently trading at 14/1 - a possible market mover?
Pindar is the obvious each way horse but is a BArney Curley horse, and regular blog readers will know about BArney Curley by now. Can I confidently put up Pindar? I will have a small each way play on BAllad maker here - not selected in the usual each way way. This race should be dominated by the market leaders, but if only one of them falters this will open up place possibilities to a bigger priced horse, and Ballad maker may fit the bill given the potential market move ( as long as the price remains at 16/1 or lower) - if his odds move out to 25/1 then he's a no bet
Folkstone begins with a maiden hurdle in good to soft ground - not the ideal ground for betting.
110 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kid Charlemagne, 11/4 Matcho Pierji, 9/2 Master Medic, 8/1 Uncle Eli, 14/1 Darksideofthemoon, Oh Crick, 16/1 Regal Quote, 33/1 Sovereign King, 50/1 Chancery Lad, 100/1 Champion De Sou.
With so many outsdiers ,we can hopefully leave these out of the equation. Each way potential in MAtcho Pierji, Master Medic and Uncle Eli, although Darksideofthemoon is 9/1.
I'll stick with Matcho Pierji each way
120 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Rich Kid, 4/1 Berrynarbor, 7/1 Dusk Ballet, 10/1 Kamal, 16/1 Scientific, 25/1 Don Picolo, Riki Wiki Wheels, 50/1 Make A Bid .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Berrynarbor and Dusk Ballet have one piece of form to their name to give them claims on these terms, but this looks a good opportunity for RICH KID who has improved with every run and was suited by the step up to this trip when off the mark in a Leicester nursery last time.[AC]Typical of the bad race types we face today, Rich Kid is a potential price gapper, now 4/5 early doors with a noticeable price gap of 8/1 to the next horse. This, though is a claimer so he's not as rock solid with that piece of information known. Rich Kid may be worth risking but I must reiterate the race type - by no means an ideal price gapper but this is a small field and only 2 horses trade sub 10/1 (fav not withstanding)
A very difficult day today with good to soft at Folkstone not the ground I want to be betting on. Ballad maker is a speculative bet -those of you who want a safer proposition(if any Barney Curley entry could be safe!) could opt for Pindar, or back both each way in the same race.
Rich Kid appears in a claimer which is not ideal but the price gap indicates strong support. MAtcho Pierji looks a little too obvious for me today but I hope he places.
Sticklers may want to sit today out
FAkenham begins with a selling handicap hurdle - hope that doesn't signal another poor day's racing
200 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dr McFab, 5/2 Kanonkop, 8/1 Pindar, 14/1 Kassuta, 20/1 Directa´s Digger, 25/1 Ballad Maker, 33/1 Feeling Peckish, Safe Investment, 100/1 First Frost, Ranavalona .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many to seriously consider and KANONKOP (nap) looks a live alternative to Dr McFab on these terms.[AWJ]This looks a tricky race to decipher with 4 debutants. I'll make mention of BAllad MAker ,currently trading at 14/1 - a possible market mover?
Pindar is the obvious each way horse but is a BArney Curley horse, and regular blog readers will know about BArney Curley by now. Can I confidently put up Pindar? I will have a small each way play on BAllad maker here - not selected in the usual each way way. This race should be dominated by the market leaders, but if only one of them falters this will open up place possibilities to a bigger priced horse, and Ballad maker may fit the bill given the potential market move ( as long as the price remains at 16/1 or lower) - if his odds move out to 25/1 then he's a no bet
Folkstone begins with a maiden hurdle in good to soft ground - not the ideal ground for betting.
110 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kid Charlemagne, 11/4 Matcho Pierji, 9/2 Master Medic, 8/1 Uncle Eli, 14/1 Darksideofthemoon, Oh Crick, 16/1 Regal Quote, 33/1 Sovereign King, 50/1 Chancery Lad, 100/1 Champion De Sou.
With so many outsdiers ,we can hopefully leave these out of the equation. Each way potential in MAtcho Pierji, Master Medic and Uncle Eli, although Darksideofthemoon is 9/1.
I'll stick with Matcho Pierji each way
120 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Rich Kid, 4/1 Berrynarbor, 7/1 Dusk Ballet, 10/1 Kamal, 16/1 Scientific, 25/1 Don Picolo, Riki Wiki Wheels, 50/1 Make A Bid .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Berrynarbor and Dusk Ballet have one piece of form to their name to give them claims on these terms, but this looks a good opportunity for RICH KID who has improved with every run and was suited by the step up to this trip when off the mark in a Leicester nursery last time.[AC]Typical of the bad race types we face today, Rich Kid is a potential price gapper, now 4/5 early doors with a noticeable price gap of 8/1 to the next horse. This, though is a claimer so he's not as rock solid with that piece of information known. Rich Kid may be worth risking but I must reiterate the race type - by no means an ideal price gapper but this is a small field and only 2 horses trade sub 10/1 (fav not withstanding)
A very difficult day today with good to soft at Folkstone not the ground I want to be betting on. Ballad maker is a speculative bet -those of you who want a safer proposition(if any Barney Curley entry could be safe!) could opt for Pindar, or back both each way in the same race.
Rich Kid appears in a claimer which is not ideal but the price gap indicates strong support. MAtcho Pierji looks a little too obvious for me today but I hope he places.
Sticklers may want to sit today out
Monday, 19 November 2007
19/11
2 seconds at 8/1 and 11/4 and the only horse unplaced ran at Fontwell where the ground was hardly the good to firm mentioned in the Racing Post. Watch out for any deterioration in ground conditions if you can because changes will mean different horses become more fancied. Pity that as I would never have bet had I seen the ground conditions prior to writing the blog.
Today begins with a 0-45 class 7 contest - yes it's that kind of day - personally I would contemplate a no bet day today but here's a couple of potentials - the low grade racing is offputting today
420 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Highest Esteem, 5/1 Fenners, 6/1 Fantasy Ride, 7/1 Recalcitrant, 10/1 Papradon, Raydan, 12/1 Ashwell Rose, 16/1 Squiffy, 25/1 Bolckow, 33/1 Full Of Promise, 50/1 Beliar, Divine River, Itsawindup, Sir Sandicliffe .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGHEST ESTEEM, who's related to a couple of useful winners on this surface, is the progressive one and clearly the one to beat under a penalty. Fenners and Fantasy Ride are obvious each-way alternatives
On a card where all races are Class 6, including this one. |High esteem is now 9/4 with next best 13/2 - yes we have the "clearly the one to beat" but the other Spotlight mentions the horse has more on his plate with the penalty. High esteem won his last race and gets a penalty for that. The race type is offputting as this is low grade stuff. On the plus side 9/4 is a good price and the price gap remains. Not one that immediately jumps off the page though - can we rely on horses in such low grade contests?
EACH WAY
110 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Inchlaggan, 11/4 Ardesia, 4/1 Approved Force, 11/2 Present, 10/1 Starbougg, 20/1 Colditz, Hall Of Fame, Tina´s Ridge, 50/1 Beckenham´s Secret .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: David Pipe knows where he stands with Ardesia so it's interesting that he's happy to take him on with INCHLAGGAN (nap), who will find this a good deal easier than at Kempton last time and is capable of winning some more over hurdles
Today begins with a 0-45 class 7 contest - yes it's that kind of day - personally I would contemplate a no bet day today but here's a couple of potentials - the low grade racing is offputting today
420 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Highest Esteem, 5/1 Fenners, 6/1 Fantasy Ride, 7/1 Recalcitrant, 10/1 Papradon, Raydan, 12/1 Ashwell Rose, 16/1 Squiffy, 25/1 Bolckow, 33/1 Full Of Promise, 50/1 Beliar, Divine River, Itsawindup, Sir Sandicliffe .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGHEST ESTEEM, who's related to a couple of useful winners on this surface, is the progressive one and clearly the one to beat under a penalty. Fenners and Fantasy Ride are obvious each-way alternatives
On a card where all races are Class 6, including this one. |High esteem is now 9/4 with next best 13/2 - yes we have the "clearly the one to beat" but the other Spotlight mentions the horse has more on his plate with the penalty. High esteem won his last race and gets a penalty for that. The race type is offputting as this is low grade stuff. On the plus side 9/4 is a good price and the price gap remains. Not one that immediately jumps off the page though - can we rely on horses in such low grade contests?
EACH WAY
110 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Inchlaggan, 11/4 Ardesia, 4/1 Approved Force, 11/2 Present, 10/1 Starbougg, 20/1 Colditz, Hall Of Fame, Tina´s Ridge, 50/1 Beckenham´s Secret .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: David Pipe knows where he stands with Ardesia so it's interesting that he's happy to take him on with INCHLAGGAN (nap), who will find this a good deal easier than at Kempton last time and is capable of winning some more over hurdles
Sunday, 18 November 2007
18/11
Franchoek won with ease yesterday - if only they'd all win like this. Newton Bridge a non runner
It's my boy placed for each way backers, Saint Kadette unplaced but if you decided to back Franchoek to win then this each way bet would have been redundant, and Blazing Bailey came 4th.
Both football bets would have resulted in profits had you become a trader as advised. Yes the Italians scored early, but it remained 1-0 long enough for odds to reduce to 1.36 from the 1.6 that was available prematch on the under 2.5 goals.
similar to Northern Ireland - no goal in the 1st half meant we could trade out of the unders score there at half time despite final score 2-1 to Northern Ireland . Trading does not mean holding out til full time in the hope that...... trading means getting a green screen when the opportunity arises.
EACH WAY
100 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Tidal Bay, 5/2 Mr Strachan, 9/1 Top Cloud, 10/1 Brave Rebellion, Double Eagle, 33/1 Surricate, 66/1 Panthers Run, Tipp Mid West, 300/1 The Last Turn.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A crackerjack of a novice chase. Mr Strachan ran a screamer when splitting a classy and more-experienced pair here on his chasing debut and, although there's a suspicion that form shouldn't be taken totally at face value, there's no doubt he's a tough opponent for TIDAL BAY to deal with. The selection got the job done well on his chasing debut, however, and can defy his penalty Mr Strachan looks good each way ,especially now tidal bay is 2/5 on. 330 CHELTENHAM BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Elusive Dream, 4/1 Razor Royale, 6/1 Nenuphar Collonges, 12/1 Commander Kev, Olmeto Collonges, 25/1 Carys´s Lad, 50/1 Charming Oscar, Mokum, What A Buzz, 150/1 Finnegans Rainbow. With only 3 sub 12/1 it's NEnaphur Collenges each way for me 235 FONTWELL BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Tarkesar, 7/2 Mikado Melody, 4/1 Royal Prodigy, 6/1 Eumene, 13/2 Tytheknot, 14/1 Factor Fifteen, 20/1 Papillon De Iena, Spider Boy, 25/1 Jayed . |
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