30 OCT - NO BLOG TOMORROW!

I hope you heeded the warnings yesterday - Provence 2nd in a 5 furlong maiden , Littledodayno nowhere in an apprentice ridden race. Yes Adversity won, but at 1/3 this was expected and Ryan Moore booted him home with ease and as for Faraday, typically for a Barney Curley horse, he either wins comfortably or goes nowhere - the latter was the case yesterday so i'm glad I didn't play
Rydal came 2nd at 4/1 which is fine from an each way perspective -Magic Glade, the potential price gapper won. In a 2 the place race, Foxhaven couldn't manage the place - perhaps its wiser to stick to races where there's a payout for 3 the place? Hellfire Boy was a great 3rd at 12/1 ( note 7 runner race at the off but Betfair always pays out 3 the place so I was happy with that!) The each ways continue to place largely which is reassuring as our stakes are pretty much returned in anticipation of the winner who will arrive soon. A good policy to employ.
125 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ah Ya Boy Ya, 5/1 Darling Harbour, The Gloves Are Off, 8/1 Curragh Mountain, 10/1 Diyla, Storey Coburn, 12/1 Rockfield, Sir Malik, 14/1 Dawn Assault, 16/1 Bottleforthebattle, Inishmot Girl, 20/1 Fabien, Port La Chaine, Seismologie, 25/1 According To Kate, Betabob, Dahra One, Florimund, 33/1 Liffey Side, Shady Mo, Sly Touch ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AH YA BOY YA is becoming an expensive sort to follow, but seems to have been found a good opportunity to make amends for three instances of beaten favouritism since his debut second in a bumper at Killarney in July. The main worry concern here is that he looked more in need of a longer trip than today's shorter distance when beaten a neck by former Flat winner Strath Gallant on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse a week ago. One positive to take from that race is that he managed to reverse previous Listowel bumper running with Bennys Quest. I include this one out of interest - form shows 2232 - obviously at the business end of races and a modicum of consistency augur well for another good run today. Price gap is there, and beaten a neck last time. BUT this is a maiden hurdle, and these types of race are usually carnage for the short prices. Add to this a 22 runner field and a number of debutants and we are back on shaky ground. Against my better judgement, I will be with Ah ya Boy ya today , the big field should ensure the price remains over evens. I would certainly not bet odds on. No doubt I will regret this but today could be the day. An obvious bet would be backing pre race, and laying off the bet in running at a shorter price on the assumption the horse will be at the business end as his form suggests.
155 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Narquois, 6/1 Miley Byrne, 7/1 Another Jayjay, 10/1 Thefactofthematter, 14/1 Dan George, Tigerland, 20/1 Ciara Eile, Dillons Hill, Double Me Up, Lusikisiki, Rory´s Star, Shewalksthewalk, Subtle Prince, 25/1 Another Surge, Chinara, Oyster Queen, Red Basil, 33/1 Bombay And Tonic, Cutting Chrystal, Tripalot, 66/1 Tales Of New York, 100/1 Emmy Supreme ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NARQUOIS will be very hard to beat if returning to action in the same form as when third to Shuil Oisin over the course and trip almost a year ago. Though it would be simplistic to take a literal view of the fact that he finished only 1 1/2l behind runner-up Farmer Brown, whose sustained improvement saw him win this season's Galway Hurdle, it was a decent maiden in overall terms, with fourth place going to subsequent hurdles and chase winner Care And Share. The current good form of the Meade stable offers the hope that he will be fit and ready for this, and perhaps a bigger worrry is that his winning form over 1m7f in France suggests that he will do better over further than 2m. The price gap is there as are the trigger words " will be very hard to beat" but there is an "if" and that is that the horse hasn't been on the track for nearly a year. This is an obvious concern and backers will be hoping the "if" doesn't surface and the horse will be, indeed, "very hard to beat" - On the plus side Paul Carberry is on board.
COMMENT
As with yesterday these price gappers really aren't ideal because it's Ireland, big fields and race type. So those waiting for nailed on templated price gappers would do well to leave these 2 alone - will the first horse get his head in front of 22 opponents in the maiden hurdle? Will the 2nd horse overcome a year off the track and reproduce his form from that year ago and be "very hard to beat". It's all conjecture and hope!
EACH WAYS
COntinues ticking along while we wait for a winner - at least the large proportion of selections are placing until that winner arrives which ensures a return of stakes, and in some cases, a little more on top
130 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Bishopbriggs, 9/4 Premier Danseur, 9/2 Seta Pura, 10/1 Aerialist, 14/1 Laureldean Breeze, 16/1 Royal Acclamation, 25/1 Make A Bid, Stagecoach Topaz, Tanley, 33/1 Riki Wiki Wheels,

4 before 14/1 and the obvious candidate looks to be Seta Pura
230 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Rainbow Fox, 5/1 Distant Sun, Expensive Art, 11/2 Argentine, Umpa Loompa, 6/1 Feelin Foxy, Ingleby Princess, 33/1 Alloro, 66/1 Bella Grande.
Very interesting to see 7 horses between 7/2 and 6/1. This indicates to me that the favourite is worth taking on and I'll plump for a horse positioned in the middle of this bunch in Argentine each way -hope he places at least
250 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 What´s For Tea, 7/2 Hurstpierpoint, 8/1 Kabuku, Prunes, 10/1 Khana Ras, 16/1 Carry On Cleo, 20/1 High Wonder, Ten On Line, 25/1 Mio Fiore, Raines Boy, 33/1 Lavemill, 50/1 Little Finch .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WHAT'S FOR TEA has good prospects of enhancing Tom Dascombe's fine strike-rate with his juveniles here and is preferred to Hurstpierpoint.[FC]
Hurstpierpoint each way ,currently at 7/1 because the favourite has been very well backed in this claimer. The makings of a price gapper judging by early morning prices but this is a claiming stakes race.

NB NO BLOG TOMORROW - I HAVE TO GO TO THE BIG SMOKE TO MEET THE BOSSMAN!