6/10

PRICE GAPPERS - I was right to favour the place only bet on Holiday Cocktail who came 2nd at 11/10. Somethimes with these price gapers, you just know they’re going to be involved in the finish but you’re a little retiscent about whether they will actually win the race, and Holiday Cocktail was a case in point. Jamie “ hold up horses” Spencer missed the kick on Sir Gerry which bleew that one’s chances. SP of 2/1 at the off indicated the horse was perhaps not as confident a choice as the betting forecaster had predicted. That’s racing alas – human error plays a part. The lack of a positive write up from Spotlight was evident with Sir Gerry yestersy – remember we’re looking for “ will be hard to beat “etc .

EACH WAYS - Admiral Barry unplaced, War and Peace came 3rd at 4/1 for each way backers, Wassily Kandinsky unplaced, Princely Hero unplaced, Frankie Figg won albeit at 2/1, and Augustine 3rd at 6/1. Interesting yesterday that I threw in personal selections in War and Peace and Wassily Kandinsky and Princely Hero rather than looking for the betting forecast to show possible good each way selections and all of these went south! I’ll stick to the betting forecast as my each way indicator rather than personal fancies.

TWIN CYCLES – Fireside and Slam were 1st and 2nd which is what you’d want to see with Twin progressive cycle bets. This leaves one betting cycle open and one closed.

TODAY
PRICE GAPPERS
Another busy day today so I will try to get quality over quantity. These Saturday meetings can be difficult to fathom. Some weekends all price gapers will march home with ease, other weekends we get a stream of 2nd places . High quality racing both today and tomorrow so I hope I can select a good few
325 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Armenian Boy, 5/1 Dan Buoy, 7/1 Particle, 12/1 Lynnie´s Vic, 14/1 Madam Cliche, Minaad, 16/1 Irish Toast, Orphina, 20/1 Folie A Deux, 33/1 Hathaal, 40/1 War Feather.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dan Buoy has questions to answer after last week's poor effort and this looks a good opportunity for ARMENIAN BOY to retain his unbeaten record over hurdles.[SR]
POSITIVES – a good price gap here with a further price gap to Lynnie’s Vic.
Armenian Boy
Four time winner on the Flat in France and made a successful start to his hurdles career at Stratford most recently (2m6f, good to firm), where he only beat a perenial loser but the pair pulled a long way clear; promises to improve and looks the one to beat.
Comes from the powerful Pipe yard with Tom Scudamore in the plate, these fFrench imports must be respected.
NEGATIVES – a novices hurdle so they still have the L plates on. Dan Buoy clipped into 4/1 early show with Armenian Boy at 6/5. Aremian Boy has only had the one run over hurdles
CONCLUSION – with so many horses priced as outsiders ( 7 are 14/1 or greater from 11) this can suggest the race will be concerning just the 4 at the head of the market. Dan Buoy looks very obviously an each way bet, and I will take a chance on Armenian Boy here to maintain his 100% record over the hurdles ( albeit only the 1 run). Ideal as a place only candidate, if he remains odds against, he’s worth chancing.I will do a full synopsis on the day’s selections after I have gone through the day’s cards and come up with a short list
510 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 No Greater Love, 7/1 Aristi, Forest Emerald, 9/1 The Iron Giant, 10/1 Pauls Plain, Schemer Fagan, 12/1 Fox ´N´ Goose, 16/1 Queen Excalibur, She´s Humble, 20/1 Flower Haven, 25/1 Cambo, Lady Korrianda, Ray Mond, Saucy Night, Silver Island, Trackattack, 33/1 My Big Sister, Participation.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to get away from NO GREATER LOVE (nap) who did it with the minimum of fuss against similar company at Sedgefield on Tuesday. Fox 'N' Goose and Pauls Plain could be worth checking in the market. [DHi]

Not your classic price gapper, but my eyes were drawn to the “it’s hard to get away from” in the Spotlight Verdict.
Now priced 6/4 early doors with next best 8/1, the early market is indicating confidence behind No Greater Love
NEGATIVES – 7lb rise for last victory – top weight in an 18 runner handicap.
CONCLUSION – looks a good win only candidate here for me, although there is some concern regarding the number of runners in this handicap field. At 6/4 though and with the confidence of Spotlight Verdict behind him, I’ll back him for the win ( pays 4 for the place and the odds may be reasonable)
235 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Amarna, 5/1 Mountain Cat, 10/1 Cool Box, Jaleela, 14/1 Cesc, Kay Gee Be, World´s Heroine, 25/1 Spriggan, Thunderousapplause, 33/1 Fantasy Parkes, Rudry Dragon, Spirit Of The Mist, Sunoverregun,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AMARNA, proven over C&D and unbeaten since running green on his racecourse debut, will be very difficult to beat. Likely pacesetter Mountain Cat could be the one for the forecast.[AM]

POSITIVES – currently 11/10 - - - 4/1. Contains the words “ will be very difficult to beat” – the ideal wording I like to see. Godolphin horse – Martin Dwyer in the plate – I guess the big boys Frankie and Kerrin McEvoy are in France.
NEGATIVES - a multiple winner in a handicap and we saw the other day – it’s about making the right decision whether the winning sequence will end today or whether we can hold out for one more race .
CONCLUSION – the betting forecast and early price market indicate this is a 2 horse race between Amarna and Mountain Cat, both multiple winners. I am swayed by the Spotlight Verdict in favour of Armana and will chance a win only bet. So far this is the one selection which instils confidence in me ( cue 2nd place !)
115 LONGCHAMP
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lightly raced COASTAL PATH looks in a class of his own here and must rate as one of the bankers of the weekend after completing a hat-trick over C&D a month ago with a 4l Group 3 success. He toyed with the opposition that day, among them three of today's rivals in Royal And Regal, 5l behind in third, with Gat and Noble Prince even further behind. With an average winning margin of 4l, he is still very much on the upgrade. Irish challenger Mores Wells won his second Group 3 event at Leopardstown in August and was not totally disgraced when 5l third to Yeats in the Irish St. Leger. He looks the closest thing to a danger
Now I know nothing about these horses and am going by Spotlight here and Coastal Path looks the one to be on “ in a class of his own here and must rate as one of the bankers of the weekend” – that’ll do for me – remember this is a system where we don’t do any form analysis whatsoever!
225 REDCAR

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Aromatherapy, 5/1 Debonnaire, 11/2 Tathkaar, 7/1 Coachhouse Lady, 16/1 Gingham, 20/1 Super Starlet, 25/1 Reel Cool, Strictly Elsie, 50/1 Lady In Chief,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a fairly useful maiden for the track, but AROMATHERAPY shaped well at Newmarket and should be hard to beat with that run under her debut. It would be no surprise to see significant progress from Debonnaire over this extra furlong, whilst Tathkaar is another who would be in the thick of things if going the right way from her debut.[
POSITIVES – price gap early prices 4/6 - - - 11/2 augurs well. Again we have those Spotlight trigger words “ should be hard to beat” – would prefer “will” be hard to beat.
NEGATIVES – a maiden race with 4 debutants and 4 once raced horses (including Aromatherapy) open to improvement.Another maiden favourite installed as such based on one single run
CONCLUSION – will be down in the pecking order of my price gapers on a busy Saturday based on the fact this is a maiden race with some unknowns and a favourite (albeit Henry Cecil!) priced restrictively based upon one run. If we look at the betting forecast, and trust it as an accurate reflection of horses’ chances, then there are 4 horses before the 16/1 quoted horse indicating these 4 ,all things being equal, should fight out the finish. This gives Aromatherapy effectively 3 rivals ,making the horse a great place only candidate at crap odds though.
700 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Socceroo, 9/2 Concealment, 11/2 Weet By Far, 6/1 Gunner Fly, 9/1 Fantasy Fighter, 12/1 Stoneacre Baby, 16/1 Howards Hope, Martingrange Boy, 25/1 Erin Thomas, 33/1 General Ting.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The effort posted by Socceroo on her debut in June is probably the best form on offer, but she has a lengthy absence to overcome and it might be worth taking her on with CONCEALMENT, who was not beaten far on her debut over C&D and should improve with that run under her belt.[SR]
A good example of one to avoid I would suggest – long absence – maiden race – 2 debutants – 4 once raced horses – may win but there are better opportunities elsewhere.
920 WOLVES
The meeting at Wolves compromises mostly class 5 and class 6 horses so we shouldn’t really get carried away
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Boz, 7/2 Heights Of Golan, 9/2 Potentiale, 8/1 Princely Ted, 10/1 Thorny Mandate, 11/1 Global Traffic, 16/1 Desert Leader.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOZ (nap) has looked very progressive winning his last two starts on sand and can defy the latest attempt by the handicapper to anchor him. Potentiale and Heights Of Golan look the most dangerous opponents.
The hint of a price gap is there, Boz is napped by Spotlight and has won his last 2 in handicap company – we know what happens to these !
I can’t ignore the price gap in the early price market ( and bear in mind this race goes off at 920 so there will be changes) – 8/11 - - - - 6/1 in a 7 runner field really does suggest a huge run froom Boz is expected in this class 5 event.What might swing this for me is seeing Jamie Spencer ,after a full book of rides elsewhere, hanging on grimly til 920 at Wolves in the hope he can bag another winner and wrestle the Flat jockeys championship from Seb Sanders.


PRICE GAPPERS COMMENT – a busy Saturday and we can’t really expect all of the above to come in ( although stranger things have happened) Amarna is probably the one I would be most confident about, and even then, there are reservations because he’s a multiple handicap winner and their winning sequences always end ( but when?)

EACH WAY
250 FONTWELL
Hurlers Cross at 3/1 early doors, looks ok for an each way pop.
325 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Armenian Boy, 5/1 Dan Buoy, 7/1 Particle, 12/1 Lynnie´s Vic, 14/1 Madam Cliche, Minaad, 16/1 Irish Toast, Orphina, 20/1 Folie A Deux, 33/1 Hathaal, 40/1 War Feather.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dan Buoy has questions to answer after last week's poor effort and this looks a good opportunity for ARMENIAN BOY to retain his unbeaten record over hurdles.[SR]
I hinted at this earlier – Dan buoy each way looks very obvious
435 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Presentandcorrect, 9/2 Love Angel, 5/1 Masjoor, Nawamees, 7/1 Play Master, 12/1 Grecian Groom, Take A Mile, 16/1 Marfinca, 20/1 Espoir Du Bocage.
In a 9 runner field, 4 are 12/1 or greater, so of those remaining, Nawanees each way for me
235 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Amarna, 5/1 Mountain Cat, 10/1 Cool Box, Jaleela, 14/1 Cesc, Kay Gee Be, World´s Heroine, 25/1 Spriggan, Thunderousapplause, 33/1 Fantasy Parkes, Rudry Dragon, Spirit Of The Mist, Sunoverregun,
Mountain Cat looks an obvious candidate
255 LONGCHAMPS
All my loving is 7/2 fav and should place here
330 LONGCHAMP
3 horses below 11/1 and I will look to Pride of Nation each way under Jamie Spencer ( remember Boz in the price gapers – well would Jamie bother going from France to Wolves for a ride if he thought it was worthless?)
225 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Aromatherapy, 5/1 Debonnaire, 11/2 Tathkaar, 7/1 Coachhouse Lady, 16/1 Gingham, 20/1 Super Starlet, 25/1 Reel Cool, Strictly Elsie, 50/1 Lady In Chief,
4 horses before 16/1 here and I’ll chance Tathkaar

I’ll leave Wolves alone each way as it’s all class 5 and 6

TWIN CYCLES
On a busy Saturday I’ll leave this alone today

FOOTBALL
No real games of interest today from an asian perspective – Man Utd should do the job over Wigan,particularly in the absence of the excellent Heskey and possible doubts over Antoine Sibiersky – everyone’s looking at a tonking today . Wigan haven’t lost by 2 this season, and of the big 4 they have only met Liverpool – were they stuttering? It took Liverpool 75 minutes to break Wigan down and in previous meetings with Man Utd, generally the Red Devils’ goals have tended to come in the 2nd half and this may be the case today. I think I’ve found a decent dutching bet in the half time/full time market. You can back Man Utd/Man Utd and Draw Man Utd, odds are 1.69 and 4.8 Around a £73 stake on Man Utd /Man Utd and a £25 stake on Draw /Man Utd returns around 24%.