Thursday, 25 October 2007

25th OCT

Quiet day yesterday - Blue Zenith won -Musical Script a no bet for me - I hope you see the differnce between a proper price gapper with attendant extreme positive comments from Spotlight and Musical script with its "shoulds" and "ifs"
PRICE GAPPERS
220 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nota Liberata, 100/30 Mujahaz, 7/2 Torba, 6/1 Tension Point, 10/1 Gunner´s View, 14/1 Rosie´s Glory, Stagehand, 33/1 Leprechaun´s Gold, Salto Chico, 100/1 Awe, Converti, Homecroft Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It looked a better race in which NOTA LIBERATA finished a clear third at Kelso and he's the one to beat, with George Moore a very rare visitor to these parts. An error-free round could see Torba offer most resistance
Mujahaz is a bit too near to warrant this beinga templated price gapper bet but there are grounds for backing the horse, namely the long trip to Ludlow and "he's the one to beat" - I'd be more confident in this as a place only bet as I am concerned with Torba and Mujahaz's proximity to the selection price wise
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 What Katie Did, 7/2 Stevie Thunder, 13/2 What´s For Tea, 8/1 Deckguard, Oli James, 10/1 Thomas Malory, 14/1 Reel Star, Weet By Far, 20/1 Emef Princess, 25/1 Bahia Palace, Duneen Dream, 33/1 Spoilt Madame.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to get away from WHAT KATIE DID as she boasts a genuine attitude, the highest BHA figure and acts well on the surface. The unexposed Stevie Thunder can chase her home
"it is hard to get away from " and "looks set for a big run" are wholly positive. Jamie Spencer on board - had a back problem yesterday which may throw a question mark about Jamie giing 100% today so it may be worth seeing how he copes with his earlier rides before wading in. Again not a strict price gapper bet because of the close proximity of Stevie Thunder. Ahould Jamie be ok today, What KAtie Did , at the price ,may be worth a bet
920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Bold Adventure, 6/1 Three Boars, 8/1 Golano, Scutch Mill, 10/1 Black Mogul, 12/1 Mighty Kitchener, Papradon, Theflyingscottie, Yab Adee, 100/1 New Diamond.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these need to be played late which makes prominent racer Black Mogul all the more interesting from stall 1 under Francis Norton. However, hat-trick seeking BOLD ADVENTURE (nap) is probably still ahead of the handicapper.[AM]
Yes it's one of those - a multiple handicap winner installed as favourite again. A 7 lb rise this time - "probably still ahead of the handicapper" is a positive. As with previous examples, it's a matter of guaging if this is the race where the winning sequence will end as with each race the weight increases bringing the rest of the field closer, or whether, indeed, the horse is sufficiiently ahead of the handicapper to enable him to get the hatrick. It's up to you! - build up a case to back or lay
COMMENT
Again no ideal price gappers today - those above are worthy of further investigation but each has a niggle
EACH WAY
2 selections yesterday with one winner at 11/4
410 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Yaddree, 9/4 City Stable, 6/1 Downhiller, Oberlin, 10/1 Dandy Erin, 12/1 Driven, 16/1 Muharjam, Ten Pole Tudor, 40/1 Iron Cross, 66/1 Dance Easily, Highly Regal.
4 before 10\1 hint that these 4 look good for a place. From an each way perspective I will chance Downhiller
505 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kova Hall, 7/2 Glimmer Of Light, 4/1 Mr Bigglesworth, Roussea, 5/1 Albarino, 20/1 Iaskofyou, 33/1 Layasar, Working Late.
A 5 horse race with 3 the place - I'll chance Albarino each waY

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