11/10

Telgonus won for the each ways yesterday at a poor 3/1. The price gappers all failed, and were not templated examples. I thought they were worth a shot.
Again today, I'm not happy getting involved until the jumps season proper begins. There are some very tricky races at the moment
Kempton's night meeting comprises the usual class 5 and class 6 low prize money fare.
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tepee, 7/1 Harlem Shuffle, Morocchius, 8/1 Silk Hall, 10/1 Rowaad, Scuffle, 12/1 Jasoora, 14/1 Duty Doctor, Transfer, 16/1 Miss Phoebe, 25/1 Dual Faith, Marino Prince, 33/1 Where´s Susie, 50/1 Addwaitya .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TEPEE appears to be going the right way and can gain recompense for a luckless latest run here. Of the newcomers, Harlem Shuffle appeals most.[BDO]

A god price gap, but a horse who's only had the 2 runs again in maiden company in a class 6 on the all weather."appears" - is not really positive and I can't have this one at such a short price. There are 5 debutants in the field and 6 horses who have only had the one run so others are open to improvement
300 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Grenfell, 6/1 Junctiontwentyfour, 13/2 Nostringsattached, 7/1 Garston Star, 8/1 Leonardo´s Friend, 10/1 Ibberton, 12/1 English Jim, 20/1 Sintos, 33/1 A Sea Commander .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Junctiontwentyfour could be dangerous if settling better this time but the obvious one is GRENFELL (nap), who needs a stiffer test than what she got on her reappearance at Market Rasen.

POSITIVES - napped by Spotlight although there's no " will be very hard to beat" as there was with Dep purple yesterday (although the odds were very restrictive on that one)Price gap is solid in the early market 10/11 - - - 15/2 which is wholly positive. A string of seconds shows the horse is at the business end, which is important especailly over 3 miles.
NEGATIVES - Novices handicap chase perhaps not the ideal betting medium. The ground is good to soft and any mention of soft normally results in me leaving the meeting alone. The horse is also sporting blinkerswhich may suggest he needs a little coaxing.
CONCLUSION - by dint of the fact that there have been no market moves for any other horses in the race, this would seem to be a good bet for me, but I would not bet if the ground changed to soft or worse during the day.
410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rowdy Yeats, 6/1 Vibe, 7/1 Jupon Vert, 10/1 Golly, 12/1 Deep King, 20/1 Green Gamble, Master T, Silvo, 25/1 Macgyver, Sean Og, 50/1 River Mere .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rowdy Yeats is by the far best of these and still going forwards by all accounts, but there could be some value in taking him on under his welter burden if conditions remain on the easy side of good. Old boy JUPON VERT has 10l to find with the favourite on their last clash but is weighted to make a race of it.[AWJ]

POSITIVES - again the price gap remains in the early shows - 5/6 - - - - 7/1 is quite prominent for a heavily weighted horse in a handicap.
NEGATIVES - flopped in soft previously and this is good to soft at present ( remember the Racing Post put up this ground the night before so it may deteriorate with further rain).
A welter burden and a conditional jockey's handicap do not offer me any convincing evidence to back.
CONCLUSION - by far the best horse in the race but may be run out of it under 12 stone 5 and in a conditional jckey's event, I can't chance him here.

Only one real candidate today and that is NOT a templated bet in Grenfell. As I said, when "soft" is mentioned in any context regarding the ground it's best to leave the meeting alone but at 10/11, we are in with a shout.
220 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Royal Rationale, 9/4 Summer Of Love, 9/1 Pennyrock, 12/1 Flying Grey, 16/1 Avant Gardiste, 20/1 Foreign King, 33/1 King Of Magic, Swagger, 40/1 Fine Ruler, 50/1 Iced Tango .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around ROYAL RATIONALE, easily the pick of these on the Flat and likely to be extremely tough to beat if he can transfer most of that ability to this different discipline. If he doesn't, Summer Of Love is easily the likeliest one to take advantage

I just thought I'd include this example as the magic words are there but there's an "if". Summer of love is also too close to the selection. In what looks a 2 horse race the fav at 5/6 will win well "if" ....... so if you're chosing Royal Rationale here you're betting that the horse will transfer his ability to the jumps.
EACH WAY
a 3/1 winner yesterday
820 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Hucking Hill, 9/2 Napoleon Dynamite, 11/2 Dvinsky, Jacquart, 10/1 Back In The Red, Prince Of Delphi, 12/1 Abwaab, Cativo Cavallino, 14/1 Royal Challenge, 16/1 Majestic Cheer, 20/1 Bridge It Jo,
Currently 4/1, Hucking Hill looks a decent each way shout here
230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Hennessy, 11/4 Bali Bay, 11/2 Corker, 7/1 Cave Of The Giant, 12/1 Daring Racer, 14/1 Baker´s Girl, Glendara, Himba, 16/1 Rakaman, 50/1 Sarrococca, 66/1 Willow Hall, 100/1 Commanche Dawn.
Cave of the Giant here just before the 12/1's
410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rowdy Yeats, 6/1 Vibe, 7/1 Jupon Vert, 10/1 Golly, 12/1 Deep King, 20/1 Green Gamble, Master T, Silvo, 25/1 Macgyver, Sean Og, 50/1 River Mere.
4 each way priced horses before the perceived outsiders at 20/1. WIth good to soft and confditional jockeys, a chance on Golly -the most obvious candidates are Vibe and Jupon Vert

TWIN PROGRESSIVE CYCLES
220 Wincantion offers an opportunity here to back Royal Rationale and Summer of love in 2 different classes.

NOTE - with the ground being on the soft side of good, the IDEAL is to not get involved at all. The racing recently has been extremely tricky and can be borne out in the results