4/10

Well done to Chelski yesterday obliging for the Asians bet .
Price gappers – Kiwi Bay won yesterday, Hamish McGonagal could only manage 2nd but put up a strong run in what I did describe as an unsuitable (ideally) race, the Forsyte Saga was very poor indeed. Again I said in an ideal world Forsyte Saga would be a no bet – I should have stuck to my original synopsis there BUT did the eagle eyed amongst you notice my comment on Classic Legend. Obviously there was some early money for the horse, but this was masked later on as he shot out to 22/1 BUT STILL WON!. I’m glad I left Doctor frematnle alone at 1/3 – 2nd place was all he could manage and the place only bet, albeit at hugely restrictive odds, came in.
Each ways – Dart was unplaced and Toboggan Lady a creditable 2nd
Redford won for the twin cycles in impressive style
PRICE GAPPERS
255 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ned Ludd, 13/2 Hesivorthedriver, 15/2 Burntoakboy, 17/2 Altenburg, Whenever, 10/1 Pugnacious Lady, 11/1 Bukit Tinggi, 12/1 Sister Agnes, 16/1 Crimson Monarch, 20/1 Elusory, Lady Dedlock, Tweed River, 25/1 Optimistic Alfie, 33/1 Come Bye.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NED LUDD sets a decent enough standard on his spring form in more competitive races than this and though his readiness for this obviously has to be taken on trust, has the most persuasive claims in a race in which credible contenders are rather thin on the ground.
POSITIVES – 11/8 - - - 11/2 early morning prices.
NEGATIVES – this is a maiden race with a favourite coming back from a 102 day lay off This is a soft ground race and a class 5 to boot.
I must mention Lady Dedlock who is 14/1 in the early market and 20/1 in the betting forecast which indicates, perhaps, a degree of backing for the horse – can we expect a classic legend today? Please!
CONCLUSION - personal preference here is for a place only bet on Ned Ludd rather than backing as a win only. My intuition hints that this race may be better tackled from an each way angle ,or indeed left alone altogether.
405 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Pivotal Answer, 7/2 Desert D´Argent, 15/2 Candle, 8/1 Generous Jem, Opal Haze, 9/1 Lisathedaddy, 14/1 Intiquilla, 16/1 Oh Glory Be.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The key horse is PIVOTAL ANSWER, who is 8lb well-in after the handicapper has taken corrective measures following a close second in a Kempton AW handicap. She was 8l clear of some fair rivals then and, if running as well on this different surface, will be extremely hard to beat. Encouragingly, her dead-heat win in an easy-ground Bath maiden on her third start was a better effort than a previous AW second, raising strong hopes that she can prove just as good on grass. Desert d'Argent and Candle are the pick of the opposition. [MCu]
Early morning prices of 5/4 - 7/2 . I am taken by the phrase from above “ if running well on this different surface, will be extremely hard to beat”
You already know what I look for with the Spotlight – remember? – “ hard to beat / difficult to oppose/a tough nut to crack” or, indeed, “will be extremely hard to beat”
There is a qualifier here though and that concerns the horses ability to handle the new surface, so essentially we are betting ,if we back Pivotal answer , on her ability to transfer form to this new surface. If that can be assured ,then this makes Pivotal Answer a cracking bet. I think, looking at the profile of the race, that I will take that chance as we seem only to have Desert Argent as the main rival.
I must sound a note of caution regarding soft ground. Usually I would dismiss the meeting if soft or heavy ground as I don’t want the hassle of exhaustive form analysis.

440 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Dustoori, 11/2 Give Me A Break, 8/1 Rock Anthem, 9/1 Hibiki, Unreachable Star, 11/1 Gib, Rustic Gold, 20/1 Seleet, 25/1 Beau Sancy.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUSTOORI (nap) stands out on his latest very good second off this mark in a slightly stronger race than this at Hamilton and should be hard to beat. This colt had won at a similar trip to today's on his debut the time before and the only doubt of any consequence is today's forecast soft ground. As Dustoori was fine with plenty of give at Hamilton, hopes must be high that he can cope with this likely softer surface. Give Me A Break may be next best. [MCu]
Early prices 4/5 - - - 7/2 don’t quite mirror the betting forecast’s price gap. Encouraging to see Spotlight make this horse the bet of the meeting for him. “stands out” “ should be hard to beat” – I would prefer a “will” be hard to beat. Again soft ground at a meeting is not an ideal if we are looking for rock solid bets – we are always “hoping” the horse will handle the ground.
A godolphin entrant ,the big boys aren’t here to ride as they are at Newmarket. I will give Dustoori the nod here although I wouldn’t back at odds lower than the current 4/5 which is as near as damn it to evens
200 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Shabiba, 9/2 Spinning Lucy, 11/2 Elizabeth Swann, 12/1 Just Like A Woman, Meydan Princess, 14/1 Gaabal, Jennie Jerome, 20/1 Garland, Toasted Special, 25/1 Coloratura, Provence, Storyland, 33/1 Arcetri, Jamaali, 100/1 Ile Royale,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Spinning Lucy was not far behind some very useful sorts at the Curragh after a layoff and may appreciate the drop back in distance, but she may meet her match in SHABIBA who ran a race full of promise against colts on her debut and looks to have a good opportunity to go one better.[FC]
Once raced filly installed as market leader in a hot looking maiden. Big field and a number of newcomers from powerful yards mean I won’t be backing despite the obvious chances
530 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ainama, 4/1 Kahara, 5/1 Irish Quest, 8/1 Ancient Culture, 10/1 Grand Heights, 12/1 Duty Free, 16/1 Fretwork, 20/1 Horseford Hill, Hot Diamond, Starry Messenger, 25/1 Natural Action, Starparty, 33/1 Cavalry Twill,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This opposition should be much more demanding for AINAMA (nap) but he won with huge ease last Saturday and, with the longer trip of no concern, he has to get the vote. In more normal circumstances, Irish Quest and Kahara would arrive with high hopes
Yes, another multiple handicap winner installed as favourite – and he’s on a 5 timer today in stronger company. As I’ve said before with these, the winning sequence is nearer to ending with each consecutive rise in the weights and the key is to decipher when – will it be today or next race because it will come.
SPOTLIGHT’S COMMENT
Ainama
Has won all four of his handicaps, shaping as if he appreciates every yard and returning from two-month absence to win with huge ease at Chester (1m5f, the furthest he´s gone) last Saturday; this race looks far stronger but he is thrown in under 6lb penalty and will be very hard to beat if in same form after the five-day break.
Again, because of the nature of the selection this is very much a sit on the fence race for me. I will be kicking myself if he wins again and I didn’t back him, but will be patting myself on the back if he loses and I left him alone – a no bet for me
PRICE GAPPERS COMMENT
It’s all about the quality of your decision making when determining whether to leave out or include in..Each selection today has a niggle – an absence to overcome – the ability to handle a soft surface – a multiple handicap winner whose winning sequence will end, but will it be in this race?
It looks like just Dustoori for me today, but I will be intrigued to find out, since the blog began, the strike rate of ALL selections whether personal final selections of mine or not.
EACH WAY
First off, I’ll be leaving Kempton well alone – have you seen the card – class 5 and class 6 handicaps – help! Remember the bookies have to price up every race but we as punters can remain selective
540 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Moheebb, 4/1 Grethel, 7/1 Mangano, 8/1 Zain, 10/1 Beaumont Boy, 12/1 Bert´s Memory, Chasing Memories, Chookie Hamilton, Grand Diamond, Papa´s Princess, 14/1 Just Dust, 40/1 Seteem.
Moheeb at 7/2 in the early morning prices is ok each way - a slight loss will accrue if placed
255 GOODWOOD
I will put up Lady Dedlock – a possible price mover – I should have made Classic Legend a nailed on each way bet yesterday at 22/1 winning and was gutted about that, especially the Betfair price! I don’t expect Lady Dedlock to follow suit but worth a small interest JUST IN CASE!
200 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Shabiba, 9/2 Spinning Lucy, 11/2 Elizabeth Swann, 12/1 Just Like A Woman, Meydan Princess, 14/1 Gaabal, Jennie Jerome, 20/1 Garland, Toasted Special, 25/1 Coloratura, Provence, Storyland, 33/1 Arcetri, Jamaali, 100/1 Ile Royale,
Elizabeth Swann each way could be a good bet here – I am hoping she is competitive for the place at least
TWIN CYCLES
No bet today
FOOTBALL
Well done Chelsea yesterday winning my asian handicap bet ( I’m sure that’s not the sole reason why they won the match!)
Today sees the UEFA Cup matches and, if the odds are right, then there are numerous mismatches
Will Blackburn overcome their shock first leg loss? I must admit they have been bad in Eurpoe – I’ve seen all their games thus far and won’t be touching them at 1/5.
Depending on which Spuds side is selected this evening ,they should face a relatively easy game of it. Unbackable at 1/3 the value will come in the Asians market again I would suspect

Tottenham -1.0
If Tottenham win by 2 or more £66.00
If Tottenham win by 1 £0.00
If Tottenham do not win -£100.00

To £100 stakes



This looks like a reasonable bet for me – I break even is the Spuds win by 1