12 OCT

Glad I left Teppe alone yesterday - the horse didn't even place. Grenfell was another close 2nd - worng choice between him and Rowdy YEats who won. Royal Rationale was not a price gapper bet because of the proximity of Summer of Love who won.

Each ways - Hucking Hill unplaced.Cave of the Giant placed 3rd.Golly unplaced,

A difficult period so a degree of caution today.
300 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Pauls Plain, 5/1 Rocknest Island, 10/1 Bleu Pois, Royal Game, Star Tenor, 14/1 Moon Melody, Queen Of Diamonds, The Hedge, 16/1 My Portfolio, 20/1 Emotive, Reckless Venture, 25/1 Hammer It Home, 33/1 Dunsemore, Kyle Of Lochalsh, Pavey Ark, 50/1 Carna Bobby, Mustang Du Gueslan, 100/1 Kinfayre Boy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PAULS PLAIN (nap) won with plenty in hand at Fontwell and a penalty is unlikely to prevent him from following up if in the same form.[AWJ]

POSITIVES - decent enough price gap which is mirrored in the early price market. Richard Johnson on board.
Pauls Plain

Didn´t look badly handicapped on pick of hurdle form but even so something of a surprise to see him score with so much authority at Fontwell last week, sporting cheekpieces for the first time on debut for this yard; was backed to do so and very much the one to beat here.
Napped as well
NEGATIVES - novices handicap hurdle with 18 runners. Arrrgh!
CONCLUSION - against my better judgement I'll back the horse today at odds against, although ready preference is for the place - 4 the palce in a 16+ runner handicap.

715 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Abraham Lincoln, 4/1 Nastrelli, 6/1 Mist And Stone, 10/1 Nanotech, 14/1 Poisiedon, Russian Empress, 20/1 Loughsider, Rural Retreat, Seal Colony, Upper Village, 33/1 Canulos, 50/1 Borsa´s Gold, Sea Cat, 66/1 Merry Moon ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ABRAHAM LINCOLN is best treated at the weights and can take advantage of the drop in class following his run in the Diadem Stakes won by his compatriot Haatef. Last month's win over this trip at The Curragh was a smart performance on his first outing since an early-season defeat in a maiden at the same venue, and he ran a bit better at Ascot than is implied by his finishing-position in ninth, since the race was dominated by those drawn high. In the small group that raced on the stands' side he was beaten only by Al Qasi, a Group 3 winner at The Curragh in August.

A drop in class - Aiden O'Brien on board and should be a straightforward victory for Jamiee Heffernan. I suppose the more comfortable approach here is via the each way market incase Abraham falters. Abraham should oblige tonight

435 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Al Khaleej, 11/2 Jalil, 7/1 Bomber Command, Samarinda, 10/1 Dichoh, Hazzard County, 14/1 Manchurian, The Snatcher, 20/1 Wavertree Warrior, 25/1 Killena Boy, 33/1 Basra, Troubadour .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: $9.7m yearling Jalil is interesting back in trip for this AW debut but his form as it stands isn't in the same parish as that of AL KHALEEJ. Ed Dunlop's colt has improved with every start, is better than the bare form of his last run in a competitive Ascot handicap and his strong travelling style is particularly well suited to racing on AW surfaces. [RY]

POSITIVES - price gap remains in the early market - Seb Sanders on board
Al Khaleej

Progressive sort and best effort in competitive Ascot handicap last time; strong traveller who has won only previous AW start and should be suited by this course; the one to beat.
NEGATIVES - handicap race - 76 day absence to overcome - 2 rivals at around the 5/1 marker cannot be discounted.
CONCLUSION
an obvious place only candidate for me here.


COMMENT - again there are no templated examples of the calibre of Dylan Thomas in the past so this must be borne in mind today.
A chance on Paul's Plain here today, although I will be cursing if he loses " why - he's a fav in an 18 runner novices handicap hurdle "!

EACH WAY
410 CARLISLE -
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Kasnani, 11/2 Final Bid, Sculastic, 6/1 Kristiansand, 7/1 Insurgent, 8/1 College City, Heavenly Chorus, 12/1 Carrietau, 14/1 Hardybuck, 33/1 Sir Night.
Insurgent each way
715 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Abraham Lincoln, 4/1 Nastrelli, 6/1 Mist And Stone, 10/1 Nanotech, 14/1 Poisiedon, Russian Empress, 20/1 Loughsider, Rural Retreat, Seal Colony, Upper Village, 33/1 Canulos, 50/1 Borsa´s Gold, Sea Cat, 66/1 Merry Moon,
NAstrelli is obvious each way material and could pounce should Abe not run to his expectation
815 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Sine Die, 5/1 Angel Dreamer, Chesapeake Bay, 13/2 Venelina, 8/1 San Jose City, 10/1 Casablanca Jewel, Herbert Crescent, Icemancometh, Maude Gonne, 12/1 Tiger Tee, 14/1 Avoca Blue, Dearg, Quetzalcoatl, 20/1 Manavic,
Sine Die each way - Oxx/Kinane combo heading the market at an each way price