5/10

A poor selection yesterday in the Spuds, they really had nothing to play for and that was very evident in the attitude they took into the match. They should have easily covered the 1 goal handicap but ended drawing
PRICE GAPPERS – my intuition was right regarding Ned Ludd –each way winners at big prices. Pivotal Answer could only manage a 2nd place. Dustoori fought out the finish and got infront and won . I was pleasantly surprised by Shabiba and the impressive nature of the victory. I read Ainama’s race right yesterday. Better left alone as this was a race too much for a multiple winner in a handicap.

EACH WAY
Moheeb won ,albeit at 9/4, hardly an each way backer’s price, but hey, if he comes 1st who cares Lady Dedlock was a dud price mover unlike Classic Legend yesterday. Elizabeth Swann ran very well and was only just pipped to the winner’s spot, gaining a good 2nd at 4/1

PRICE GAPPERS
450 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Holiday Cocktail, 4/1 Issaquah, 5/1 Depraux, 6/1 Augustine, 10/1 Aliba, 14/1 Factor Fifteen, 25/1 Breaking Shadow, Dispol Peto, 33/1 Toshi, 50/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, Scuzme, 100/1 Genoa Star.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Issaquah is a threat getting the weight but HOLIDAY COCKTAIL (nap) is bang in form and seemingly progressive as a hurdler given the manner in which he justified market confidence at Uttoxeter.[AWJ]
Price gapper jumpers now so it would be interesting to see the strike rate of these.
POSITIVES – decent enough price gap although far from the ideal shown in the templated examples such as Captain Gerrard. The nap of the meeting for Spotlight. Progressive profile judging by the form 970-21.
Holiday Cocktail
Off only 89 in winning a Uttoxeter handicap last month but did it most decisively that day having travelled best throughout and now looking progressive; this far from being a penalty kick with his extra burden but will take some beating.
NEGATIVES – top weighted in a novice hurdle event. As this is Hexham I would be hesitant about getting involved if any rain comes. There is no early morning prices for me to look at this morning.
CONCLUSION – 6 horses before 25/1 indicate the race should revolve around these.
Looks a better place only candidate given the number of outsiders in the field than a straight on the nose winners.
315 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sir Gerry, 6/1 Tajdeef, 7/1 Achilles Of Troy, Strike The Deal, 8/1 Dream Eater, 9/1 Dark Angel, 14/1 Red Alert Day, Rock Of Rochelle, 50/1 Proud Linus, 250/1 All In The Red.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was more style than substance to Sir Gerry's Gimcrack win and, although unquestionably highly talented, he does not look great value. DREAM EATER is a feasible each-way option given that he is entitled to be rated a bit better than his Doncaster win up the apparently slower far side of the course.[FC]
POSITIVES – extremely good price gap upheld in the early market. Jamie Spencer on board ,and I’ve said it before if we look at him on a favourite in current circumstances ( ie showdown with Seb Sanders) and I expect Jamie NOT to be missing these opportunties)
NEGATIVES
Spotlight has not selected him as the first choice. Form does have cracks in it
CONCLUSION – this is a group 1 race, so why the price gap. I always make note of these price gaps in class fields because money talks, and ,especially if its Group 1 level. With that in mind, Sir Gerry I will back for the win, but in the back of my mind there really is no positives from Spotlight
EACH WAY
845 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 New Zealand, 3/1 Sligo, 9/2 Admiral Barry, 5/1 King Of Queens, 10/1 Cheeky Try, 12/1 Chevie, Exploration, Roman Heat, 20/1 Ladbrokes Lad, 25/1 Donnabhain, One Job.
Admiral Barry each way here. I am mindful of Aiden O’Brien’s New Zealand
215 GOWRAN PARK
War and Peace each way. Aiden O’Brien and Fallon token selection!
430 GOWRAN PARK
Wassily Kandinsky each way again for Aiden O’Brien ,installed as favourite at each way odds is a good bet
535 GOWRAN PARK
Princely Hero each way for the Weld/Smullen combination.
A very good quality field at Gowran today with the big bys out and some good horses.
340 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Double Deputy, Matt The Thrasher, 4/1 Frankie Figg, 10/1 Rifleman, 14/1 King Of Slane, Rectory, Willie The Fish, 33/1 Cassius Dio, The Event Master, 50/1 Daniel´s Dream, 100/1 Panama Mermaid.
Frankie Figg each way
450 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Holiday Cocktail, 4/1 Issaquah, 5/1 Depraux, 6/1 Augustine, 10/1 Aliba, 14/1 Factor Fifteen, 25/1 Breaking Shadow, Dispol Peto, 33/1 Toshi, 50/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, Scuzme, 100/1 Genoa Star.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Issaquah is a threat getting the weight but HOLIDAY COCKTAIL (nap) is bang in form and seemingly progressive as a hurdler given the manner in which he justified market confidence at Uttoxeter.[AWJ]
4 before 10/1 indicate these may be good place only options, so Augustine each way for me
135 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 River Proud, 100/30 Declaration Of War, 4/1 Iguazu Falls, 7/1 Tasdeer, 12/1 Fool´s Wildcat, 14/1 Yankadi, 20/1 Bellomi, 25/1 Bazergan, 33/1 Paveroc,
Declaration of War each way looks to have a great chance of placing at least

I am a bit wary that there are perhaps too many each way selections today but will hold fast and perhaps with the number of selections in mind retire after an early winner
TWIN CYCLES
105 NEWMARKET
Yes I’ve got a bang on the head. I will chance Fireside and Slam for this twin cycle although it is a big field maiden race. . I expect the race to revolve around these 2 horses with the price gap to the 3rd favourite as a good confirmer.