29 OCT

Wlcome to the Jumps season. We rarely get fallers on the flat, but had one yesterday, along with a non runner and a 2nd at 11/2 which I would have loved to have won - we have to take the fallers on the chin - goes with the territory alas. Gemini storm was contending but that's life.
I was right to swerve some of the potential price gappers - making returns from long lay offs meant a lot of the shorties yesterday underperformed.
PRICE GAPPERS
140 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Faraday, 8/1 Dinner Date, Moyoko, 10/1 Noah Jameel, 12/1 Astrolibra, Bowl Of Cherries, My Monna, 14/1 Don Pasquale, Sekula Pata, 16/1 Cove Mountain, Fortune Point, Storm Path, 33/1 Montana Sky, Surdoue .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FARADAY, backed off the boards at Wolverhampton last time will be hard to beat, assuming the market vibes are similarly positive. The race for second place looks more competitive and Moyoko can edge it.[AM]"will be hard to beat" - I like to see it! Prominent price gap. My only concern is this is a class 6 handicap - hardly the BReeders Cup!
Another cause for concern. This is a Barney curley horse "backed off the boards at Wolverhampton last time" - that's Barney curley alright! I am worried we may have missed the boat as far as the winning run is concerned. I shan't be having a play because of the trainer although I note Jamie Spencer is onboard and, with the flat jockey's title still within grasp, he wouldn't be riding this one if it wasn't without a chance. So watch out for the market here.
210 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Adversity, 9/2 Mafioso, 6/1 Dan Chillingworth, 7/1 Media Stars, 10/1 Arabian Spirit, 14/1 Rowaad, 50/1 Aleatricis, Festival Dreams, 66/1 Balletic, Yakama, 100/1 Amicus, Hits Only Time .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ADVERSITY (nap) made a good impression on his debut at Lingfield last month and has a lot going for him. Dan Chillingworth may be next best.[EMW]"should be hard to beat barring accidents."
A maiden stakes race and a horse with only the one run installed as warm favourite - seen it all before. Backed based on one run - comes 2nd!POSITIVES - Ryan Moore, who is superb, instils a lot of confidence for backers. the price gap remains in the morning market ,and, going against my better judgement, Adversity may be the one for me to back at an unexciting price
120 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Provence, 4/1 Minshar, 10/1 Duty Doctor, Monashee Rock, Red Amaryllis, 16/1 Holly Golightley, 20/1 Didana, 25/1 Centenerola, Princess Augusta, 33/1 Never Catcher, 50/1 Cealtra Star, Felicia, Madame Bountiful, 100/1 Pretty Officer, Rosie Says No ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PROVENCE was head and shoulders above these on form even before her soft-ground Newmarket third was franked by the fourth at the weekend and is expected to open her account. Minshar is better than she was able to show last time but she needs to improve a good deal on her promising debut.[PJ]God help us all - a good to soft 5 furlong maiden ! Why me? Obviously the form has been franked convincingly regarding Provence, the price gap has widened this morning which is a positive, but 6 of the 16 are debutants and as such could be anything. SImilarly there are a number of horses who have had the 2 runs = more experience and could come on leaps and bounds. Provence is clearly the most likely winner but the good to soft and sprint distance is a niggle.
130 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Littledodayno, 5/1 Duke Of Milan, 6/1 Razzano, 10/1 Gone´N´Dunnett, King Of Charm, 12/1 Blessed Place, Two Acres, 16/1 Rhapsilian, 20/1 Beau Bramble, Shantina´s Dream, 25/1 Campbeltown, Sir Mikeale .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Razzano and Duke Of Milan are both respected in a modest contest but LITTLEDODAYNO (nap) ran a solid race in defeat at Kempton last time and can belatedly put her head in front this season after some eyecatching efforts.[PSm]
Price gap enhanced in morning market. No real " will be hard to beat" , more an expectation of a belated win based on prior close shaves. Add to this the fact this is an apprentice ridden race, and I'll get me coat!
Again, will probably win, but as with most examples today, there are niggles

COMMENT - personally I would limit myself to one today. The BArney Curley horse will not reach the short list, despite Jamie Spencer's presence as we may have missed the architypal Curley run -winning with jockey sipping a cognac!. Other potential price gappers appear in maiden races, one a one time out runner installed as fav based solely on that one run, the other in a 5 furlong event on good to soft ground over 5 furlongs. Add to that the last horse in an apprentice ridden race, and we have arguments for a no back day today. Adversity and PRovence are my shortlisted selections I think. IF forced, I will put my trust in Adversity and Ryan Moore to bring home the bacon
EACH WAY
240 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Magic Glade, 4/1 Rydal, 10/1 Regal Raider, 12/1 Briannsta, 14/1 Lindbergh, 16/1 Royal Challenge, 20/1 Calloff The Search, Detonate, 33/1 Cayman Breeze, Luloah, 50/1 Time For Change ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAGIC GLADE has had a great year for this yard and has a good deal going for him on these terms. Rydal is preferred of the others.[EMW]Another potential price gapper but Rydal was too close - I will take Rydal as my first each way chance incase the fav falters in this claimer
250 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 New Guinea, 7/2 Foxhaven, 7/1 Futun, Young Mick, 10/1 Millville, 300/1 Black Wadi, Little Darlin.
Foxhaven each way ( only 2 the place) -may be able to exploit favs under performing?
350 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Alwaabel, 6/4 Lord Sandicliffe, 8/1 Hellfire Bay, 10/1 Ricci De Mare, 50/1 Billberry, Encore Belle, 66/1 Bad Moon Rising, Love And Glory, 100/1 My Flame .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of the newcomers makes a lot of appeal, with Ricci De Mare perhaps the most interesting. ALWAABEL (nap), who comes here in preference to Newmarket later in the week, is taken to account for Lord Sandicliffe.[GW]
Hellfire Bay each way may exploit one of the 2 market leaders not giving their runnings