19 oct

Iron Maid won but touched evens in running as ohmissymoss put up a fight. But, for backers and layers in running this was another winning trade.

Lusaka de Pembo went off at 11/4 – alarm bells ringing. There may the semblance of a lay system here if the betting forecast favourite does not go off as favourite and the price difference between the betting forecast price and live market price is significantly altered? I was right to suggest an each way angle in this race

Herecomesstanley won –fair play to the horse. Dasher Reilly came 2^nd as I expected for each way backers

Blazing Sky won at a good price 8/13 relative to the price in the betting forecast

The Senakster failed to place

The twin cycles bet came off – again horses finishing 1^st and 2^nd giving little cause for concern

CHELTENHAM

Class 2 and 3 jumps races today – a decent quality and the big boys are here in force

550

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Snap Tie, 5/1 Sendani, 6/1 Quaddick Lake, 7/1 Greenlough, 15/2 My Old Piano, 11/1 Commander Kev, Truckers Delight, 14/1 Imperial Harry, Zirkel, 16/1 Most Definitely, Sienna Storm, 25/1 Cactus King, Ruby Valentine, 28/1 Symbiosis, 33/1 Newby Abbey, Taipan´s Promise, 66/1 Peak Seasons.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not that much to go on, particularly with regards to form shown over hurdles, and market reference should be useful. Paul Nicholls' Sendani is interesting but preference is for SNAP TIE, who showed a good bit of ability as a useful bumper horse last season, including here. [MCu

I’m scraping the barrel trying to find a price gapper. There is a hint of one here. With Snap Tie now 7/4 - - - -4/1. This is a maiden hurdle so I won’t be getting involved

845 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Mikhail Fokine, 9/2 Seader, 7/1 Ladbrokes Lad, 8/1 Lethal Weapon, Windsor Palace, 12/1 Quitit, Stoned Immaculate, 20/1 Croi Mo Ri, Force And Motion, 25/1 Seans Lad, 33/1 Dynamo Dan, Magical Six, The Gnathologist.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MIKHAIL FOKINE, unplaced in a maiden at Doncaster in between two good placed efforts on home-territory, holds a strong chance. First time out, the Sadler's Wells colt was third in a Leopardstown maiden won by the subsequent Beresford Stakes runner-up Domestic Fund, and he fared better than two shorter-priced runners for Aidan O'Brien when second to Moiqen over this trip at Navan nine days ago.

Aiden Obrien hotpot seems to be justified as favourite. No Fallon on board, so Jamie Heffernan the ideal replacement. The live market will be key here I feel and with it being an evening meeting a little look in the market will determine the strength of confidence behind the Ballydoyle representative.

910

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Don Pedro Mendoza, 5/1 Cool Touch, 6/1 Kevkat, 13/2 Fly Free, 8/1 Davidii, Mull On The Run, 16/1 El Diego, 20/1 Akimbo, Etu, 100/1 Bucuresti.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DON PEDRO MENDOZA (nap), who was still a bit backward when second to Air Twist on his debut at Listowel last month, is making up for lost time and looks set to record his third success inside only a little more than two weeks. Having prevailed by a mere short head from the 81-rated Nazdaq at Gowran, he seemed to face no easy task at the weights at Navan nine days ago, but rose to the occasion and showed a good attitude to earn a share of the spoils with Laywaan, a useful four-year-old filly making a belated seasonal debut.

Another Aiden Obrien fav – good price gap reflected in early morning prices – again it’s a long time away do decision making will be made nearer the time. There are other bigger priced Ballydoyle representatives and they could be worth an each way interest

NEWMARKET

The start of another good quality festival at Newmarket

Short Skirt may qualify as a price gapper but concern over the time off. That said, at 2/1 there is some value to be had, with Godolphin juveniles in blistering form.

I wouldn’t back any lower given the size and quality of the field

REDCAR

320

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Spinning Lucy, 7/2 Ibis, 6/1 Anne Of Kiev, 10/1 Seta Pura, 14/1 Hasty Lady, 20/1 Cealtra Star, Island Music, Piverina, 33/1 Mathool, Miss Sunshine, Princess Maria, Tendulkar´s Diva, 66/1 Petite Music, 100/1 Petidium, Steph The Ref.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Newcomers Ibis and Anne Of Kiev are well bred newcomers and market support for either will be interesting. However, at this stage it's hard to get away from SPINNING LUCY, who has had a few chances but who has shown more than enough to suggest she's capable of winning a race of this nature. [RY]

Ibis is now 5/2 and this race looks to revolve around the first 3 in the betting. Spinning Lucy “hard to get away from” – I like to see these words.2 year old maiden fillies race –15 runners is the negative, and likely place only material given the race type

Ibis is the Godolphin newcomer and has not raced before so preference would be for the experience of Spinning Lucy . That said, prices are 5/4 - - 5/2 now so so real price gap – a decision will have to be made regarding experience versus potential and reputation

EACH WAY

440 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Five Dream, 9/4 Hypnotic Vibes, 4/1 Summer Of Love, 15/2 Sainte Kadette, 12/1 Silmi, 20/1 Kanonkop, Letham Island, 25/1 Zafonical Storm, 40/1 Lemon Silk, 150/1 Feeling Peckish.

4 before the 12/1 horse – 2 at unbackable prices for each way purposes, so its Summer of Love for me

100 Newmarket

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Polmaily, 11/4 Manalito, 3/1 Sortita, 7/1 General Eliott, 16/1 Amanjena, 20/1 Hellzapoppin, Wine ´n Dine, 33/1 Indian Skipper, Sarah´s Boy, 50/1 Serious Choice, 66/1 Hotel Felix.

General Eliot each way here – looks to involve 4 if the forecaster is accurate

530

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Esthlos, 7/2 Dubai Twilight, 9/2 Greek Envoy, 11/2 Cutting Crew, 11/1 Kings Quay, 14/1 Mikao, Oh Glory Be, 16/1 Star Of Light, Velvet Heights.

Dubai Twilight each way