Friday, 26 October 2007

26 OCT

Nota Liberata placed at 3/1 as I suspected, What Katie Did won at 7/4 for Jamie Spencer, and Bold Adventure won at 6/4, obviously had one more win in him!Downhiller came 2nd at 16/1, again a drifter but if you played then you'd be happy. Albarino won at 5/1 making this a cracking day - why can't they all be like this?

PRICE GAPPERS
240 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Kaldoun Kingdom, 7/1 Chivola, 8/1 Dark Tara, Gin Genereux, 10/1 Leading Edge, Rio Sabotini, 14/1 Willyn, 16/1 Admiralcollingwood, Cheshire Rose, 20/1 Killer Class, 25/1 Zaplamation, 33/1 Paint Stripper, Polish Priory, 100/1 Jazz Stick .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of dead wood on show here and it will be disappointing if KALDOUN KINGDOM (nap) can't gain compensation for his luckless effort at Nottingham last time. Chivola and the lightly raced Rio Sabotini could prove best of the rest.[PSm]
Also " ahead of the handicapper" - very healthy price gap but only concern is good to soft ground which might deteriorate ,and the fact this is a 2 year old nursery - a form of handicap.At odds against though, worth chancing
355 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Kahara, 8/1 Estate, 12/1 Ainama, Dium Mac, 14/1 According To Pete, Casual Affair, Hot Diamond, Lets Roll, Prince Sabaah, 16/1 Dar Es Salaam, Whenever, 20/1 Mighty Moon, Traprain, 25/1 Altilhar, Dhehdaah, Mister Arjay, Mister Completely, 33/1 Linden Lime, Trance, 50/1 Historic Place .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from the progressive 3yo KAHARA (nap), despite the ratings hike, and he can further assist Seb Sanders in his push for the jockeys' title. Dium Mac is feared most
Price gap now 13/8 - - - 7/1 which is a positive. Seb Sanders on board will give this his best shot - "the one to beat" despite going up 8lbs. This is a big field handicap , 20 runners, 12 being 20/1 or bigger.
Again you'll get odds against, but with 4 the place, a place only bet would be, for me, the safer option
1035 MONMOUTH PARK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Discreet Cat, 11/2 Corinthian, Gottcha Gold, 13/2 Lewis Michael, 10/1 Wanderin Boy, 11/1 High Finance, Xchanger, 20/1 Forefathers, 25/1 Park Avenue Ball .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The smart play looks to be to oppose Discreet Cat here. I marginally prefer HIGH FINANCE over Gottcha Gold as an alternative.
This is not the usual Spotlight writer for the BReeders Cup - in such a high quality field, the price gap cannot be ignored. If replicated at the off, this will be a bet
920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Boz, 9/2 Rudry World, 5/1 Kalasam, 14/1 Colinette, 16/1 Cavalry Twill, Tafiya .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOZ, whose relatives Batik and Bauer both progressed with age for the same connections, can keep up the good work. Rudry World should make it interesting, though.[AWJ]
3 time handicap winner had to work a little harder for victory last time. Again this is a handicapper multiple winner going up the weights with each new race. Positives - JAmie has stuck around to ride him, and it's a small field, but personally I would be sitting on the fence here - the winning sequence will end soon
EACH WAYS
210 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Crying Aloud, 9/4 Almamia, 7/2 Madame Hoi, 5/1 Silk Affair, 16/1 Chanteuse De Rue, 66/1 Mathool, Orpen Bid, Parisienne Gem .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Crying Aloud sets the standard but she does have to prove she wants this far and ALMAMIA is taken to improve past her. Mark Prescott's filly is bred in the purple and looks sure to improve for her recent Nottingham debut.
8 runner field - 3 the place - Silk affair is positioned to be competitive
345 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Bert´s Memory, 7/2 Kassuta, 5/1 Grethel, 10/1 Johnston´s Glory, 12/1 Fun In The Sun, Jane Of Arc, Soul Angel, 16/1 Acapulco Bay, Caviar Heights, Stay Active, 20/1 Superjain, 66/1 Shady Bay.
A lot of horses 12/1 or over, sonbest to concentrate on the shorter prices - Grethel each way
420 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Goodbye, Northern Spy, 6/1 Moheebb, 12/1 Hawkit, King Of The Moors, Mystical Ayr, Rudry Dragon, 16/1 Ansells Pride, Bay Boy, Vicious Warrior, 20/1 Future´s Dream, 25/1 Blue Spinnaker, Neil´s Legacy.
Northern Spy here - priced as if the first 3 are the most fancied
TWIN CYCLES
230 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Cool Roxy, 3/1 Tighe Caster, 7/2 The Stickler, 6/1 Big Rob, 10/1 Salinas, 25/1 Party Games, 100/1 Sett Aside .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Likely that this has been COOL ROXY's aim for some time and he can keep his local fan club happy by scoring his ninth course win at the expense of Tighe Caster and The Stickler
The first 2 in the betting could provide us with a winner here

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