7/10

It took Man Utd, a while, as I thought, to break Wigan down, and the dutch on Man Utd/Man Utd and Draw/Man Utd came in well for a 24% gain. I chickened out of the dutch which was far more profitable than backing in the match odds market.
Dan Buoy actually became 2/1 favourite with Armenian Boy at 5/4 – this is quite obviously not a price gap but the price gapper experiment is not based on following the live market. If you are in a position to do so of course, common sense tells you that the price gap has disappeared. That said, Armenian Boy came 2nd “ ideally a place only candidate”

No Greater Love came 4th in a 16 runner handicap – a disappointment.
Armana came 2nd which was a frustration as he came in with a great run
Coastal Path was indeed the banker of the meeting but at 2/5 was only really a back and lay off in running and he won with ease.
Aromatherapy another one time out candidate in a maiden who disappoints ( where have I heard that before!) Socceroo came nowhere as I thought.Boz won well at 10/11 – if you ever needed a hint ,try Jamie Spencer taking a flight from Longchamp and sticking round til 920 for a ride ,then returning to Longchamp tomorrow.
Hurlers Cross placed, and Dan Buoy placed but I hope you realised 5/4 is not really an each way bet. , Nawamees unplaced, as was Mountain Cat, and All my loving, Pride of Nation unplaced, and Takthaar 2nd at 5/1.

Far too many each way selections in a busy card need to be curbed on Saturday’s I think

PRICE GAPPERS
210 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mister Right, 7/2 Phoenix Eye, 11/2 Meadow Hawk, 6/1 Orange Street, 11/1 Cool Roxy, 14/1 Explosive Fox.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In-form MISTER RIGHT (nap), who was sixth in the Ascot Stakes last year, is a likely improver now that he steps up in distance over hurdles and is the one to be on.[DH]

Spotlight also says – “seems sure to take the beating”
POSITIVES – Chocolate Thornton in the place – a class act. We have a 6 runner field with 2 horses at double figure odds.
NEGATIVES – a handicap hurdle and RPR ratings are very closely matched.
CONCLUSION – what I should have done yesterday was compare the selections against the templates I have for the ideal price gappers. If looking at the above example against a templated example, then Mister Right falls short. But with the small field and Thornton for me, I think he is a good bet at odds against
325 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ethan´s Star, 6/1 Humourous, Souffleur, 7/1 Roman Army, 8/1 Sybellius D´Artaix, 10/1 The Saltire Tiger, 12/1 Craiglands, 14/1 Mr Woods, 20/1 Soubriquet, 25/1 Cutting Chrystal, Jupsala, 33/1 I´m On Fire, Lusabawn, 50/1 Familiar Affair, 100/1 More Shennanigans.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Just a run-of-the-mill novice event and ex-Irish ETHAN'S STAR can make a successful start for new connections if sufficiently straight after his summer break.[AWJ]
161 day absence to overcome and a big field – I’ll strike through this one.
530 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Abstinence, 6/1 Destiny Hill, 8/1 Room At The Top, 10/1 Alfloramoor, 14/1 Wizards Dust, 16/1 Bazil Point, My Bobby, 25/1 Miss Toozy Betsy, 40/1 Don Frederiko, Shoot The Moon, Vie A Deux, Waterski, 100/1 Flagmount King,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Destiny Hill showed a bit of promise ten days ago but nothing like so much as ABSTINENCE at Wetherby. The Wylies have since bought the 4yo out of Peter Niven's stable and he looked a fine prospect that day in April.[RA]
A bumper and, by default, with so many debutants, it is folly to bet without the live market as reference.
225 LONGCHAMP
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RIO DE LA PLATA sets a very high standard on his latest excellent second in a stronger-looking Group 1 for the National Stakes at the Curragh and only in the event of very soft ground come post time would confidence be diminished. Some give at least hopefully won't be a problem - plenty of his sire's progeny cope well with softish ground. Young Pretender is next best. [MCu]
Price gap 8/11 - - - 5/1. Rio de la plata looks solid in this Group 1 event and I always have a degree of confidence the higher up the pecking order we go.
340 LONGCHAMP
Authorized currently 11/8 - - - 4/1 faces an obvious chance here under Frankie. The price gap is not as big as an ideal price gapper would be. Soldier of Fortune under the excellent Jonny Murtagh looks to be the main rival. Personally I cannot discount Authorized from the place market - as far as a win bet is concerned, well being a Sunday we can look and reference the market. Aiden O’Brien has 4 runners with Dylan Thomas the likely threat along with Soldier of Fortune and the 2 others perhaps offering tactical support.
For me Authorized at odds against is a cracking bet.

PRICE GAPPERS COMMENTS – The 2 selections at Longchamp are on my shortlist tomorrow , Rio de la Plata and Authorizd are the selections by dint of the fact they are in high class races and they are high class animals who have NO obstacles or absences to overcome

EACH WAY
Too many selections yesterday.
350 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Sam Lord, 15/8 Inchlaggan, 5/1 Tilly Shilling, 12/1 Motarjm, 16/1 Fizzy Bella, Pagan Rules, 33/1 Converti, Doctor Ned, Fine Ruler, 40/1 Dream On Dreamers, 50/1 Baarrij, Road To Recovery, Storm Mission, 66/1 Diverse Forecast, Ranavalona, 100/1 Apolina, Star In Our Eyes, 200/1 Cocobean.
Tilly Shilling is the obvious seach way bet
150 LONGCHAMP – Conference Call each way
245 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 King Of Rome, 3/1 Song In My Heart, 4/1 Tintreach, 6/1 Dane Wells, 10/1 Countess Zoe, 20/1 Charleville, Liberty Love, Separate Ways, 25/1 Baronsburg, Bolt Up, Celtic Ruler, Fair Dues, Headford Lady, Inishfree Lady, Monkhair, Sweet Toffee.
5 horses before 20/1 – Tintrach each way
TWIN CYCLES
I’ll take a chance today on Soldier of Fortune and Authorized for my twin progressive cycle bets – the hope is that these 2 represent the likeliest winners

FOOTBALL
Quiet day yesterday and we return with Super Sunday.Arsenal at 1.23 are a bit short.

Arsenal -1.5&-2.0
If Arsenal win by 3 or more £98
If Arsenal win by 2 £49
If Arsenal do not win by 2 or more -£100


Following on from Man Utd’s result yesterday I expect a 2 goal or better victory from Arsenal
Celtic away from home are priced to beat Gretna by 2+ goals and giving Gretna a 1.5 goal start may be a good move. Rangers yesterday suffered from a eurpoean hangover but they were playing Hibs who are a lot stronger than Gretna – we need to note the Celtic line up prior to this fixture to determine the likelihood of 2+ win for the Bhoys and any of the first team being rested after the euphoria mid week.
Chelsea interest me today, provided the team selection leaves out Sunday League Shevchenko (my Guernsey team have a spare place but he’s got my boots to fill and will have to pay £3 towards the ref but will get a free pint afterwards)
Provided the team includes Shaun Wright Phillips, Drogba, Carvalho and Sheva is left out, Chelsea look good for a tight victory today

Chelsea -0.5&-1.0
If Chelsea win by 2 or more £94
If Chelsea win by 1 £47
If Chelsea do not win -£100