More speculative folk might try a correct scores win to nil if City's defence continue to be as solid as they have been at home. My concern with this match was the 3 on the trot at home in which City have not scored. Surely this can change tonight against far superior opposition. This match is tradeable.
It would have been a completely different story had Obertan scored instead of hit the post, as the favourites would have scored first and the lay odds for the Hammers increased dramatically. On such small margins....
the last 2 days have been terrible, with weather affected all weather and Carling Cup to choose from. On both occasions, choosing the wrong option ( El Classico and Arsenal ready alternatives)
Apprentice hands and heels and a 2 year old claimer kick off Kempton and , seeing Southwell yesterday, it is better to sit tight at the moment .
400 kempton
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Iron Condor, 3/1 Valid Reason, 4/1 Gomrath, 6/1 Agent Archie, 20/1 Dosti.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A six-month absence should not count against Gomrath, who won on his seasonal return at Lingfield in March, but IRON CONDOR is progressing well on this surface and can get back on the winning trail following his good C&D second on Sunday. |
This is now a 4 horse race for 2 places and Iron Condor was course and distance 2nd last time out, but what effect does the frost have on this all weather surface.
2112 in last 4 at Kempton -horses for courses for Iron Condor?
430 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dark Lane, 5/1 Lord Of The Reins, Vhujon, 15/2 Flash McGahon, 8/1 Breathless Kiss, 9/1 Ray Of Joy, 12/1 Jack Rackham, 16/1 Kylladdie, 25/1 Crown, Little Perisher.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There was plenty to like about the way DARK LANE shaped on his belated reappearance and he should go well now he returns to his optimum trip. Lord Of The Reins may give him most to do. |
Price gapper in a maximum field - 3 non runners should surely count in Dark Lane's favour.
1pm - Zilina v Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas - 1.12 home - clearly the best side in Slovakia. Slovakian Cup -division 1 v division 2 and 1-0 on 10th November. Away side have lost last 4 and Zilina a little shaky at home - LDDLWD in last 6 at home for them.
6pm - Metalist v Debrecen - 1.19 home - europa league fixture - Debrecen the whipping boys in the europa league?
805pm - Atl Madrid v Aris Thes. - 1.28 home - all to play for with a 1-0 win for Aris in their home leg. Typical greek opposition keep things tough. Madrid have scored 2,2,3,2 in 4 of last 5 home matches but Greeks can be ultra defensive.
805pm - Man City v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.28 - a team from a league of around 10 should really not concern Man City at home. 2-0 to city in first leg should be replicated at home at least. City have not scored in their last 3 at home, and against far weaker opponents in a far weaker league, they must surely make a breakthrough at some stage as long as their primadonnas don't throw a hissy fit because of the weather. The good news for City backers is that this is a must win, with a tricky tie v Juventus coming up and an unexpected 3-1 loss to Lech Poznan.
Faith in City at home? Red Bull are 3rd in a league of 10 and this is a weak league. Surely another set of Mancs cannot scupper things? Will the 4 goals scored against Fulham signal the kind of return to goalscoring form which will ensure City do not go another game at home without scoring?
1-1 and 0-0 against Juventus for Red Bull is good form. In the league they have won their last 3 but remember this is a weak league of only 10 teams.
SHORTLIST
400 Kempton is a 4 horse race now for 2 places on betfair and Iron Condor is 2112 at Kempton in his last 4 runs here , but is the frost and cold going top present us with a different race course ( i.e. the all weather version of heavy?)
805pm - Man City v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.28 - tight at the back, City should be able to shut out Red Bull and get a win which they need tonight . |Good news is that it has the feel of a must win about it. The 4 against Fulham away from home should help persuade to back City to score and not make this a 4th home match on the trot without a goal.
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