back-lay-trade-horses-football: 1/11

Interesting choices today - 2 2 year old 5 furlong all weather maidens at Wolverhampton, and an ideal 3 the place 8 runner hurdles race at Plumpton.

I am going to chance Insolenceofoffice today based solely on the consistent placed form and booking of Hanagan.

*****ONE A DAY - 140 WOLVES - INSOLENCE OF OFFICE TO PLACE*****
I hope this 2 year old can be trusted and run as the form suggests she should, into a place.

Wayward Prince won, his superior jumping holding true.

4pm - Chernomorets B v Minyor Pernik - 1.31 home - unbeaten last 12 with only 5 draws , Chernomorets should win or draw (odds predict a win) - 1.31 to me is a tradeable price, back Cherno and hope they score first. In running.
Cherno are similarly unbeaten at home in last 12, but I notice a worrying trend of tight matches at home recently. 2-1, 2-1, 0-0 , 1-0 , 2-1, 0-0, 1-0, 2-2 ( latest first) . This is why I would favour trading here.
8 losses, 2 wins and 2 draws for Minyor in last 12. But the 2 draws and 2 wins have come in the last 8 matches ( albeit most recent 2 matches have been losses) - sign of a mini revival?
LWDLLLL ( latest first) - again mini revival away in 2 of last 3 matches)

6pm - Brommapojkarna v Malmo FF - 1.44 away - Swedish top flight and 2010 and 2009 head to heads have shown a win and 2 1-1 draws. In running again. Malmo have scored first in all of the last 5 head to heads and , again, as this is in running and they are away from home, perhaps a trade is viable?
Home side have not won any of their last 12 matches, drawing only 3.
LDLLLL at home in last 5 matches .

Malmo have won 9, lost 2 and drawn 1 of last 12 matches WLWWLWD in last 7 matches.
WWLDWW in last 6 away mtches. Have scored 3 and 4 in last 2 away matches. This match is 2nd from top v bottom side. A win takes Malmo top here tonight. It looks the more likely outcome, and I would hope Malmo would make the initial breakthrough to allow the 1.44 to be traded, rather than had as a standalone bet.

630pm - Rapid Bucharest v Pandurii - 1.28 home v- 1-0, 1-1,2-0 , 2-0 (to Pandurii) , in head to heads. Tight in 2010 and 2009.
WWLWDWWW in league since August is pretty consistent. the loss came against 2nd place and the draw came against 8th place.In the draw, Rapid had a man sent off in the 50th minute when 0-0, and conceded first. In the loss , Rapid did score first.
WWWWDWWWDW at home in the league is superbly consistent.3,7,2,2 scored in last 4 league matches.
LWLLLWL in last 7 for Pandurii puts them 2nd from bottom ( Rapid are 3rd from top) in the league.
6 losses in the league in a row away from home means they are in bad shape . Contrast with Rapid's home form and it is no wonder they are 1.28. but the head to heads is a slight niggle. 1-0 and 1-1 in 2010 and 2009 head to heads.
2,2,2,2,3,2 the goals conceded in last 6 league away matches by Pandurii.

110 WOLVERHAMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Manoori, 6/4 Hygrove Gal, 8/1 Questionnaire, 16/1 Mr Optimistic, 20/1 Chester Deelyte, Quadra Hop, 25/1 Crystallus, Go Maggie Go, 33/1 Deveze, Gunalt Joy, 66/1 Cruise Racer, 100/1 False Promises, Renesmee.

DIOMED VERDICT: HYGROVE GAL and Manoori stand out on form.

The live market favours Manoori here , now 10/11 and only one of 4 under 20/1. He should have an outstanding chance of placing in the first 3.
Another 2 year old maiden, and a degree of caution as this is 5 furlongs and any mistakes will be punished. Ted Durcan takes the ride. This 2 year old has had 2 runs , a 6th and a 2nd, the latter at Kempton so the hope is that the horse will be familiar with Wolves's version of the all weather.

Crystallus is a big market mover here into 8/1 and could be the each way play?

120 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Frosted Grape, 15/8 Hill Forts Gloria, 11/2 The Hon Tara, 8/1 Kaituna, 25/1 Sonus Weld, 33/1 Twin Bud, 66/1 Bella Medici, Noir Noir.

DIOMED VERDICT: Frosted Grape commands plenty of respected even on what she's achieved over hurdles but she's only 1-16 in this sphere. HILL FORTS GLORIA is less exposed and could well improve past her following a promising debut over hurdles at Fontwell.

This is a very similar profile to Ragsah's race, 8 runners, 4 only under 25/1 and an odds on favourite, but Ragsah's race featured a horse who suddenly decided not to run, and this is why I always favour the football over the horses. Football does not fall to the whims of animals who cannot communicate ( that's open to argument!!)
In this hurdles race, we have Frosted Grape returning from chasing, but having fallen last time out in a chase ( and now 10/11!!)
Hills Forts Gloria has had only one run over hurdles, when 2nd in early October.

Faith in the probabilities here that with a clear round these horses should be vying for a top 3 spot and thus place for us.

140 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Insolenceofoffice, 2/1 Lady Kildare, 15/2 Lady Mango, 10/1 Just For Leo, Spontaneity, 16/1 Black Cadillac, 25/1 Bon Appetit, Paper Dreams, 33/1 Ngina, 66/1 Sarojini, Skiddaw View, 100/1 Lady Titticaca, Tough Customer.

DIOMED VERDICT: INSOLENCEOFOFFICE is proving rather frustrating but has sound prospects of opening her account in first-time cheekpieces. Lady Kildare is an obvious threat despite her wide draw.

Another 2 year old 5 furlong maiden and Insolence is the standout horse having form of 222232 - and with the Flat Champion Jockey elect in the saddle, and cheek pieces, could she place again? You can bet Paul Hanigan will try his best.
Only 3 horses under 12/1 here and Insolence is 10/11 now as I write.

310 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Riverside Theatre, 7/2 Free World, 9/2 Golan Way, 8/1 Bakbenscher, 16/1 Tatenen, 33/1 Altilhar.

DIOMED VERDICT: RIVERSIDE THEATRE can maintain his 100% course record

Only 3 under 14/1 here and I do like Barry Geraghty ( riverside Theatre) but must also acknowledge Ruby ( Free World)

SHORTLIST

Another typically tricky Monday with less than compelling football from minor European Leagues ( give me a La Liga or Premiership any day) , and we have chasers making hurdling debuts, and 2 2 year old 5 furlong all weather maidens.

6pm - Brommapojkarna v Malmo FF - 1.44 away - perhaps a glimmer of hope here as Malmo have scored first in all recent head to heads ( 2 of which have been 1-1 draws) so my preference with this in running match, and my insistance really, would be in trading the 1.44 and hope Malmo continue to score first.