back-lay-trade-horses-football: 23/11

Lingfield has heavy ground today and a disciplined bettor would avoid all heavy ground venues.
Southwell is a unique fibresand course amongst all weather courses.
The 210 Southwell features 7 runners and 3 places and is the best probability race of the day with 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 33/1 ( that's if we trust 2 year olds on fibresand)

***** ONE A DAY -745pm - Chelsea v Zilina - -back Chelsea in the match odds at 1.2. Yes, this is a risky proposition this evening because backing a team that doesn't need to win can lead to surprises.
What may be our saving grace this evening is the fact that Chelsea have lost their last 2 and losing a 3rd match on the trot will not be tolerated.
I will update message at 730pm if I feel the Chelsea team news ( which should be available by then) is negative or the Chelsea team does not seem strong enough.

I was getting worried as all the horses seem to have at least placed, that Volendam and Emmen would conspire for a 0-0. Luckily that was not the case.

4pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Osijek - 1.26 home - Croatian Cup - 9 wins and a draw in their last 10 - this is Croatian Cup and I really don't like getting involved when both teams are in the same league. I prefer seeing mismatches.
3 1-0's, a 0-0, and an anomolous 4-0 win in last 5 at home is hardly compelling to back Zagreb. If anything they are layable.
Or we back Zagreb and the 0-0 insurance bet?
Last 3 head to heads won by Dinamo Zagreb
Away sides' last 4 matches have been 1-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 which ties in with Dinamo Zagreb's recent tight matches at home.
3 1-0's in their last 5 away matches.
As well as this, we are betting blind today - do these teams hold contempt for the Cup? Weakened sides?
4pm - Honved v Egri FC - 1.31 home -Hungarian Cup - Egri lost 3-0 in the first leg, and scored 2 goals with 10 men. Now home advantage, surely they can bring it home, unless, again, we see a weakened side.
Honved have lost their last 2 matches after this win against Egri.
LLDL in last 4 at home for Honved hardly inspires.
IN RUNNING
4pm - Slovan Bratislava v Spartak Myjava - -1.22 home - 1-0 to Bratislava away in first round. Last 7 matches have been 1-1, 0-1, 1-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0. Again, very tight for Bratislava.
Spartak Myjava have been in solid form, albeit in Division 3, apart from the 1-0 loss to Bratislava and 0-0 in their last match.
745pm - Ajax v Real Madrid - 2.22 away - Mourinho + Champions League = specialist. For me, the dutch top flight lacks strength in depth and is usually dominated by 3 teams only. Ahh, the value of research - Real are assured of a place in the next round!! Team news for Real Madrid is vital - suspicions for a weaker side. Ajax are in poor form though too. Aax have lost 3, drawn 1 and won 1 in their last 5.
Will Mourinho really gift them the win?
Real Madrid are unbeaten in last 12 ( could be longer) so will they really tolerate a loss when it could be avoidable, despite actually not needing to win.
745pm - Chelsea v Zilina - 1.2 home - likely changes for Chelsea this evening but Zilina, while dominating Slovakian Football, are out of their depth in the Champions League.
Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 4 matches, scoring only 1 goal in the 4 matches. A signal that they are having attacking problems? Superb winning home league streak ended against a rejuvenated Sunderland ( exciting prospect Danny Wellbeck).
Surely 3 losses on the trot is inconceivable.
Zilina have failed to score in Champions League so far and conceded 15 goals ( 7 against Marseille latest and 4 when Chelsea visited)
TEam news vital. I can get an idea from the Racing Post digital edition. which hints at Drogba, KAlou and Sturridge.

Again early horse races are unappealing. Lingfield is heavy ground so very offputting.

110 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Miniyamba, 3/1 Odin´s Raven, 100/30 Ice Viking, 9/2 Dandarrell, 8/1 Shouda, 25/1 Countrycraft, Penderyn, 50/1 Shanavaz.

DIOMED VERDICT: Brian Ellison has found a good opportunity for ODIN'S RAVEN on his British debut and he gets the tentative vote.

I must admit I don't like Southwell's all weather surface as don't some of the horses. There are 5 under 25/1 here who could fight it out for the 3 places. Front 2 in the market have not run on the surface.

120 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 L´Accordioniste, 9/2 Ragdollianna, 9/1 Setter´s Princess, 10/1 Galant Star, 16/1 Sapphire Rouge, 50/1 Brunette´Sonly, 66/1 Princess Janet, 100/1 Polly´s Star.

DIOMED VERDICT: L'ACCORDIONISTE looks to have a fantastic opportunity to make it three wins from three starts. Ragdollianna may chase her home.

Heavy ground but L'accordioniste won on heavy last time out. Only 2 horses under 14/1 Brennan/Twiston-Davies a great combo.

200 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Marsh Warbler, 5/2 Al Dafa, 15/2 High Importance, 10/1 Hades, 25/1 Quality Mover, 50/1 Penny Bazaar.

DIOMED VERDICT: MARSH WARBLER sets a clear standard and should be hard to beat in his attempt to add to his runaway Bangor win.

Always good to see a fav hardening in the live betting to 4/11 - serious cash for this move.
2 places and soft ground .

210 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Endaxi Mana Mou, 2/1 Mary Boyle, 3/1 Norton Girl, 16/1 Local Diktator, 20/1 Emperorsnewclothes, 66/1 Callipygos, 100/1 Hannah Cann,

DIOMED VERDICT: MARY BOYLE was a good third here last time and can get the better of Endaxi Mana Mou this time.

8 down to 7 and we need to check for 3 places still at Betfair. Dominance by the 3 under 14/1?

220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Brackloon High, 15/8 Recession Proof, 5/1 Cleaver, Latin America, 50/1 Just Josie, 66/1 Rossmill Lad, 100/1 Action Hawk, Chase Gate, Hammerwood, King Richard, Track Star.

DIOMED VERDICT: BRACKLOON HIGH has less to prove than Recession Proof (on the ground) and Latin America (on recent form). Fairly useful Flat performer Cleaver needs a look.