15/11

A typical Monday. Chernomorets is interesting, and like Chelsea yesterday is a game I think where betting decisions are best made after watching the match. Is it looking like another 0-0 or more like a 3-1 ( as the head to heads have been?)

*****ONE A DAY 220 LEICESTER - BAck Williams Wishes to place only - 1.15 currently available.*****

Has chase experience and chase winning experience. Same jockey today, backed into 4/11. 2 miles, good ground exactly as before.
Of course I cannot legislate for falls and run outs and this is the extra obstacle we backers face over the larger obstacles.






Real Madrid went exactly as planned - 0-0 for a concerted period and then an 82nd minute Real goal. Perfect as we profited on the match odds bet but had the 0-0 incase Sporting Gijon proved too stubborn.
I am glad I left Chelsea out of the shortlists. I guess psychologically, that new record without conceding was too much for them.
2pm - OFI v Doxa Dramas - 1.36 home - 6 wins and a draw in last 7 matches - no wonder they are so short. But, typical of Greece, all of OFI's last 4 matches in all competitions have been 1-0's. Their draw was, you guessed it, 0-0!!
DDLWLWDD - those 2 recent draws? 0-0 and 1-1.
Head to heads May 2010 was a comprehensive 3-1 win for OFI.
I don't really like betting in Division 2 Greek games as it would not be a surprise to be 0-0 for a long time.. This is in running and there is a Correct Score 2 market up , which, for a Greek game , is highly optimistic.
I cannot discount the draw here, that is my concern.
4pm - Chernomorets B v Pirin Blagoevg - 1.36 home - 2010 and 2009 head to heads all in Cherno's favour with 3-1, 2-1, 3-1. So Pirin do score but lose.
A good angle into the goals markets therefore?

DDDWDWDD in recent league matches for Chernomorets. 6 draws in their last 8 matches. 5 of the draws have been 0-0 , including their last 2 matches.
LLDLLDDD for Pirin in their league encounters. See a pattern here? Pirin's last 2 matches have been 1-0 losses followed by a 1-1 draw.
Will Chernomorets find their goalscoring touch as they have against Pirin in the past, or is this inability to score, or indeed convert draws into wins, terminal?

Another in running match , which will either be tight as recent Cherno and Pirin scorelines indicate, or will go with historic head to heads and see both sides scoring. Which will it be today?
Tricky to call.

1250 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Alarazi, 4/1 Silver Roque, 5/1 My Brother Sylvest, 6/1 Deputy Dog, 7/1 Vico Road, 10/1 Call It On, 22/1 The Snatcher, 40/1 Action Hawk, 100/1 Frankie Falco.

DIOMED VERDICT: ALARAZI hails from a yard that can bring them back after an absence and this weak contest is his for the taking if fully tuned up.

SOme money for Call it on, into 4/1 coming back from a break and for a new yard I believe - perfect recipe for a potential stable gamble?

130 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Bouggler, 7/2 Have You Seen Me, 6/1 Gee Dee Nen, Sarando, 20/1 Ray Diamond, 25/1 Gandalfe.

DIOMED VERDICT: Smart hurdler BOUGGLER represents a stable in cracking form and should take plenty of beating barring accidents on his chasing debut.

Ahh, the eternal conundrum. A Royal Charm , or a Medermit/Celestial Halo?
How will this fancied hurdler Bouggler get on in his chase debut? Win like Royal Charm, or fail to complete like Medermit/Celestial Halo?
4th fav a non runner .
Have you seen me has had a winning chase start and may be the value here against the debutant incase the latter falters.

140 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Polly Floyer, 7/2 Amy Thorpe, 9/1 Marie Cuddy, 10/1 Aurora Lights, 12/1 Cheshire Lady, 14/1 Charles Bear, 16/1 Superior Duchess, 33/1 Lilly Blue, Red Rani, 50/1 Cinderella, 66/1 Bluegrass Gal, La Chemme.

DIOMED VERDICT: POLLY FLOYER has not progressed but is unlikely to find an easier opportunity and is hard to oppose. Amy Thorpe may be able to make a race of it.

A maiden fillies sprint for 3 year olds. Fav has only had the one run at 7 furlongs when 3rd by 9 lengths.
I must admit I do not like fillies in maidens. They can be temperamental. HAs only had the one all weather run.
"probably wants middle distances" is the analysis of her last run.

200 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Paint The Clouds, 9/4 Frontier Spirit, 5/1 Jetnova, 6/1 Native Gallery, 10/1 Twin Bud, 16/1 Health Is Wealth, Venetian Lad, 100/1 Downe Payment, Noir Noir.

DIOMED VERDICT: There are possible negatives about the penalised pair and they my be worth taking on with JETNOVA who has comparable form claims and can be expected to improve a good deal from his recent run following a summer break. Frontier Spirit may be most dangerous.

Only 4 under 16/1 here in the live betting market. Will these 4 dominate the market and fill the 3 places? Frontier Spirit has been in the front 2 in last 4 races, and has won on soft, and has the excellent Paddy Brennan up so looks like the default candidate here. 2 mile 5 in soft in a novice hurdle though - you take your chance!!

220 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 William´s Wishes, 7/2 Sonning Star, 7/1 Marc Aurele, 8/1 Quell The Storm, 33/1 Muntami.

DIOMED VERDICT: Impressive Ludlow winner WILLIAM'S WISHES can make it 2-2 over fences with Sonning Star the only credible-looking threat.

2nd chase race today after a good debut. 4/11 now and strongly fancied to follow up. Only 2 miles and good ground.

Has his ground and no negatives as far as analysis of last race is concerned.

320 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Guns Of Love, 11/4 Here´s The Key, 7/2 Donald Will Do, 11/2 Irish Guard.

DIOMED VERDICT: Thursday's Taunton winner Guns Of Love needs to prove his stamina and it's tempting to take him on. HERE'S THE KEY is the least exposed member of the field and bred to do better now chasing.

Guns of love is a non runner which leaves 3 horses fighting for 2 places. Simply pot luck here, 2 will place, one will not.
Here's the key is a chase debutant and has one of the Carberry clan onboard. Donald will do has the chase form as does Irish Guard, but the latter's form is questionable.

Conditional jockey's handicap chase!! Hmm!

400 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Ballabrace, 100/30 Divine Folly, 7/2 Global Power, Willy Be Lucky, 9/1 Grey Cruzene, 16/1 Albert Saxe, 20/1 Ben Eva, 25/1 Carbis Bay, 100/1 Kidajo.

DIOMED VERDICT: BALLABRACE is interesting on pedigree and is his leading stable's only runner on the card

Only 4 horses under 20/1 here should, ideally, fight out the 3 places. I say "ideally" because this is a bumper and relies on the market.

SHORTLIST

Typically difficult Monday , both racing and football.
The football matches seem to involve either consistency low scores or draws, draws , draws.
2pm - OFI v Doxa Dramas - 1.36 home - typically Greek, these recent scorelines. Tight ! Will this go with the form ( OFI 6 wins in 7) or the head to heads ( OFI comprehensive win recently) .
The draw cannot be discounted - that is my concern.
4 1-0's for OFI recently. and a 0-0 and 1-1 for Doxa Dramas in their last 2.

4pm - Chernomorets B v Pirin Blagoevg - 1.36 home - same price, same argument. Chernomorets have drawn their last 3, and their last 2 have been 0-0's.
Pirin's last 2 matches have been 1-0 losses,
Is this another match where we can back Chernomorets along with a 0-0 insurance bet, as it was highly effective yesterday and may be insurance against a 3rd 0-0 on the trot.
The hope is Chernomorets, like OFI, revert to their head to head form rather than recent form.


130 PLUMPTON - Bouggler is 1.19 to place in the first 2 here on chase debut. " barring accidents" ringing in my ears.

200 PLUMPTON - by default really would Frontier Spirit be the tentative place only consideration here. Not out of top 2 in last 4, and form on soft and heavy ground, he is one of 4 under 16/1 and , while the probability of him placing is greater than not, there is always a chance, with an accident or bad leap, that he could finish 4th.

1.34 to place here . I must note that Paint the clouds is being backed.

220 LEICESTER - 1.15 to place for Williams Wishes is really a bet that he will complete without accident .4/11 now and strongly fancied. He has a winning chase debut under his belt.
Still, there is a niggle that he is relatively inexperienced in the chase sphere. One swallw does not make a spring.

1.15 though is a good price for one of only 2 horses under 14/1

320 LEICESTER - this is simple. 3 horses run. 2 will place, one will not. Donald will do is the shortest priced in the place only market at 1.35 which is a great price for a horse with a 2/3rd chance of it paying out.
The "outsider" is Irish Guard.
We have to rely, here, on conditional jockeys in this handicap chase. There are no real market clues with the market 6/4, 6/4 , 5/2 so it really is tight.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

A day of niggles.
4pm - Chernomorets B v Pirin Blagoevg - 1.36 home - the Bulgarian league is hardly a league you can trust with your life! I have to put my faith in the form which screams out for a tight match. 2 0-0's on the trot makes a persuasive argument for a back of Chernomorets with a 0-0 cover bet . Unlike real madrid yesterday, this 0-0 is 13.5 - the market recognises the previous scorelines for Chernomorets.
THis would cost you £9 if you were backing Chernomorets with £100 stake , but there is a niggle of a score draw.

220 LEICESTER - Williams wishes has been solidly backed into 4/11 and is a generous enough 1.15 to place. This is effectively a bet that the horse completes , and we only have 2 miles for these chase fences so a replication of last run will suffice.