Saturday 20 November 2010

*****ONE A DAY - 9pm Real Madrid v Ath Bilbao - back Real Madrid to win at 1.2 - I choose this as we have the Mourinho unbeaten record, and the incentive of retaining top position of Barca win their earlier match




Chernomorets Balchik v Litex Lovech - 1.16 away - Bulgarian Cup - only match odds market and illiquid. Division 2 v Division 1 and Litex Lovech have won their last 9 matches.
12pm -
Cukaricki v Partizan Belgrade - 1.16 away - Serbian Cup game and both are division 1 teams. The home tem has not won in last 12, and away side has won 8 and lost 4 of last 12.
12pm -
Zorya v Shakhtar - 1.26 away - Shaktar have won their last 7 - Zorya have only lost 1 in last 10 matches
2pm -
Tuggen v FC Zurich - 1.15 away - division 3 v division 1 in the Swiss Cup.
3pm -
Ayr v Sunnybank - 1.24 home - division 2 v non league should go to home team with a strong team.
3pm -
Celtic v Dundee Utd - 1.29 home WWWWLW last 6 at home for Celtic. Have lost only to Rangers and hearts.
DDLWLW away for Dundee United. 2 wins in last 3 away matches a sign of improvement.
Celtic have won the last 3 head to heads and in last 3 home head to heads it has been 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 - hint that Dundee United are hard to break down?
3pm -
Crawley Town v Altrincham - 1.27 home
3pm -
Hrvatski Dragovoljac v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.22 away
3pm -
Linfield v Dungannon Swifts - 1.27 home
3pm -
Luton v Histon - 1.26 home
3pm -
Man Utd v Wigan - 1.24 home - 6/6 in head to heads. Scored 5 in last 2 head to heads. With Chelsea losing at home, Man Utd must win in order to make this Chelsea loss pay.3,3,3,2,2 scored at home by United.. they have drawn last 2 matches ( aways)
WDDLL away for Wigan. United have only conceded 2 goals in the first half. Wigan have only scored 1 in the first half. If United make the breakthrough in the first half they should win.
3pm -
Ross Co v Deveronvale - 1.21 home - division 1 v highland league.
3pm -
Stranraer v Girvan - 1.26 home - division 3 v non league
530pm -
Panathinaikos v Iraklis - 1.31 home - 5 draws in last 7 for the away side is a worry especially in a Greek league which is typically low scoring. Olympiakos has a match in hand, and are on the same points as Pana so this really is a must win for Pana.
530pm -
Rapid Vienna v LASK Linz - 1.31 home
530pm -
Red Bull Salzburg v Mattersburg - 1.29 home
7pm -
Almeria v Barcelona - 1.28 away - 5 wins on the trot now for Barca. They are a point behind Real. Real play at home and are likely to win so Barca must keep the pressure up. 5 away wins out of 5 for Barca.
DLDDD for Almeria at home. 4 score draws. DLDDDL in last 6 matches. All scorelines for the draws were 1-1, and the losses were 1-0. Not played any of the top 5 yet. Hint that Almeria may be ultra defensive.
2-2 away draw and 1-0 home win last 2 head to heads. I would back Barca and perhaps trade out if they score first incase this concession of only 1 goal in each of their last 5, and ability to score draw too.
9pm -
Real Madrid v Ath Bilbao - 1.2 home - 1 point in it and Real must match or better Barca to stay top. Home advantage . Won last 6 matches. Unbeaten this season. Remember the Mourinho home record with all teams he has managed -Real will not lose but will they win?
5 home wins out of 5, scoring 1,3,6,6,2,
WDLLL away from Ath Bilbao. Have lost all 5 matched against top 5 sides, 3 away and 2 at home.
Real won last head to head at home, lost away head to head 1-0. But in 2 of last 3 head to heads. Real have scored 5 goals.


RUGBY
230pm - Scotland v South Africa - 1.17 away - the way that New Zealand spanked Scotland by half time should ensure this bet comes in.
England v Samoa - 1.15 halftime/fulltime


1220 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2
Rebel Rebellion, 9/2 Jurisdiction, Representingceltic, 13/2 Ballyfoy, 8/1 Time For Spring, Uncle Keef, 14/1 Wyck Hill, 16/1 Hong Kong Harry, Ultimate Quest, 20/1 Eastern Supreme, This Masquerade, 25/1 Troy Tempest.

DIOMED VERDICT: Northern raider Jurisdiction is on a roll but the really interesting one is REBEL REBELLION, who showed useful form in bumpers last season and should be well suited by this sort of trip now hurdling.

WRWM readers will recognise Rebel Rebellion as one to watch from the Nicholls yard. 5/4 - - - - 5/1 price gapper.

1230 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2
Midnight Macarena, 3/1 Risaala, 7/2 Good Faloue, 11/2 Natural Spring, 7/1 Lady Jannina, 16/1 Cherokee Story, 20/1 Cloudy Wager, 40/1 Genny Wren.

DIOMED VERDICT: Midnight Macarena has a good chance on her bumper form but RISAALA reached a similar level in that sphere and has the advantage of previous hurdling experience.

8 runners and 3 places here and only 5 under 25/1 should fight it out for 3 places. Risaala is now 7/4 favourite and as Diomed says , has hurdles experience.


1240 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5
Dunraven Storm, 5/2 Toubab, 9/2 Drill Sergeant, 16/1 Pure Faith, 40/1 Laterly.

4 horses now and 2 places and Dunraven Storm was promising in Cue Card's race recently, which strenghtens the argument .

150 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Clerk´s Choice, 4/1 Carlito Brigante, 5/1 Barizan, 8/1 Andhaar, 10/1 Ultimate, 40/1 Bocamix.

DIOMED VERDICT: Regular trailblazers Barizan and Ultimate were comprehensively beaten by CLERK'S CHOICE at Cheltenham last month and this fast-improving hurdler can keep Festival dreams alive for permit-holder Michael Banks, provided the ground doesn't deteriorate.

5 runner race now , 3 under 14/1 should fight the 2 places. Clerks Choice a multiple winner under today's jockey. But winning runs do end, but today?

205 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Master Minded, 15/8 Albertas Run, 5/1 I´msingingtheblues, 33/1 Panjo Bere, 50/1 Chaninbar, 300/1 Kinkeel.

DIOMED VERDICT: The ground seems important to ALBERTAS RUN and Master Minded and conditions may favour the former more if the weather remains dry. Master Minded and I'msingingtheblues - the other with a realistic chance at the weights - have to prove their stamina.

3 horses should be fighting these 2 places and we see 2 strong contenders as first and 2nd favs.

235 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Zaynar, 7/2 Karabak, Silviniaco Conti, 12/1 Restless Harry, 14/1 Won In The Dark, 20/1 Ashkazar, 25/1 Lough Derg, 33/1 Black Jack Blues.

DIOMED VERDICT: Zaynar won impressively from KARABAK here a year ago but the revised weights should bring them much closer together and the latter is from a stable which is in much better form this time around. There is no telling how good Silviniaco Conti might be but he is only just out of the novice stage.

This should concern the front 3, with the front 2 coming back from layoffs and Silviniaco winning 4 out of 4 with 2 recent October wins. Up in class today.

250 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Grands Crus, 8/1 James De Vassy, 9/1 Captain Americo, 10/1 The Shy Man, Thelobstercatcher, 12/1 Peveril, Red Harbour, 14/1 Barafundle, Fruity O´Rooney, Tasheba, 18/1 Lord Generous, 20/1 According To Pete, Auroras Encore, Khachaturian, 25/1 Backbord, Ballyfitz, 33/1 Hills Of Aran, 40/1 Chester Lad.

DIOMED VERDICT: GRANDS CRUS must be the starting point, with a huge amount in hand on the ratings following his very impressive win in a strong handicap at Cheltenham last Sunday.

Price gapper and there must be something to such a big price gap in such a big field.
Won recently and ahead of the handicapper?Up in trip to 3 miles. 4 places as well is a good insurance policy

350 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Allee Garde, 6/1 Sword Of Destiny, 7/1 Princess Gaia, 10/1 Vindsval, 12/1 Savello, 16/1 Art Music, True Character, 25/1 Onlyonasunday, 33/1 Bay Melody, Clonoloughan, Coin River, Inouette, Isle Of Gold, Paddy The Lemon, Sea Diamond, Waveney Heights, 50/1 Vintage Lace.

Mullins fav and the price gapper

355 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Charminster, 11/8 Herdsman, 10/1 Mr One Too, 16/1 Flaygray, 20/1 A Patchy Dancer, 33/1 Forcefield.

DIOMED VERDICT: In what is probably a match, CHARMINSTER is taken to make the most of his swing in the weights with Aintree conqueror Herdsman, but they are both promising.

2 horses to dominate? I am quite taken, as always. by McCain jr/maguire


SHORTLIST
2pm - Tuggen v FC Zurich - 1.15 away - division 3 v division 1 - I would hope the gulf in leagues will be telling. Highly illiquid market
3pm - Ayr v Sunnybank - 1.24 home - division 2 v non league
3pm - Man Utd v Wigan - 1.24 home - they either score 3 or 2 at home and have won all home matches. This is a must win , what with Chelsea slipping up . 6/6 in head to heads. Wigan have scored only 1 goal in first half, United have conceded only 2 in first half. I would suggest United should make the first breakthrough.
3pm - Ross Co v Deveronvale - 1.21 home - I am happy with the gulf in leagues here - division 1 to highlands league.
7pm - Almeria v Barcelona - 1.28 away - have won all away matches and must win as Real are playing at home and have only 1 point lead.
9pm - Real Madrid v Ath Bilbao - 1.2 home - Mourinho's home record signals Real will not lose and 1.2 suggests, along with the head to heads and home form to date, that Real will win. I need to see Ronaldo/Higuan playing.

1230 HUNTIONGDON - Risaala would be my choice here in a probability race 1.48 to place is interesting given this is an 8 runner race for 3 places
1240 HAYDOCK - Dunraven storm , if running as he did last race, has a great place chance at 1.2 to place in this 4 horse race for 2 places.
205 ASCOT - this should be 3 horses and 2 places and a choice between Masterminded and Albertas Run with I'msiningtheblues the fly in the ointment. 1.36 masterminded and 1.47 albertas run to place.
250 HAYDOCK - Grands Crus is ahead of the handicapper and there are 4 places on offer here. Follow the market as a price gapper in a 17 runner race must be very well fancied.
Slight concern with rise in trip. Why not keep the horse at the trip it has been running well in?

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Man Utd v Wigan - 1.24 home -this should go the way of the head to heads and United remain unbeaten this season and have won all at home.
3pm - Ross Co v Deveronvale - 1.21 home - betting blind really as I have no information on strength of team, weather conditions etc , but I do see Division 1 v Highlands league and this should be a gulf too far for Deveronvale.
7pm - Almeria v Barcelona - 1.28 away - Almeria have kept things tight recently but as yet not faced any of the top 5. I would consider trading if Barca score first given Almeria's drawing , and score drawing, recently
9pm - Real Madrid v Ath Bilbao - 1.2 home - Mourinho does not lose at home, but can Real continue their superb goalscoring and home win record? I suspect they can. This game will have added incentive should Barca win as Real will need to win to be back on top.
1240 HAYDOCK - Dunraven storm - 1.2 to place for a 50/50 chance of us collecting is not too bad - 2 solid opponents though with little in the way of apparent weaknesses. The hope, though, is that Dunraven will not get beaten by 2 others in a 4 horse race.






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