I did mention the race type and I hope you saw it was fraught with danger - one time outers open to signifcant improvement and 2 debutants, and so it proved yesterday with the potential improvers improving.
Enhanced bet anyone? France couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo yesterday ( learning well from their national first team!) and a 1.16 team were available to back at 3.7.
The goal eventually came thanks to the goalkeeper's howler but another value bet!
Derby weekend arrives and day 1 of Epsom
140 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Confront, 5/1 Lovelace, 11/2 General Eliott, 7/1 Hatta Fort, 10/1 Without A Prayer, 12/1 Mac Love, 16/1 Deposer, 20/1 Vitznau.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jamie Spencer has a good record on Lovelace but the partnership has no easy task in trying to concede 5lb to CONFRONT, who looked such an exciting prospect as a 2yo and suggested when defying top weight on his return at Newmarket last month that he could yet be a potent force in Group company |
Stoute/Moore have been a decent enough partnership this flat season. Price gapper in a group 3 class 1 . Has at least had a recent run but remember ALL horses in class races are class horses. 1.33 to place
200 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Baron Otto, Dome Rocket, 7/2 Abu Dubai, 10/1 Black Nun, Lilly Blue, 14/1 Gwerthybyd, 16/1 Twenty Score, 20/1 Captain Cavendish, 50/1 Castle Myth.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pick of the few with realistic claims is DOME ROCKET, who was knocking on the door in better company last year, will handle conditions and looked in good heart at Goodwood recently. Baron Otto and Abu Dubai complete the shortlist.[BDO] |
3 horses under 14/1 in the live betting -should we, by default, be concentrating on these? This is a simplistic view as those with smoke and mirrors will tell you.
A claimer as well but Dome rocket could be the potential placer here, 1.24 to place
235 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Weet A Surprise, 11/2 Albero Di Giuda, Woqoodd, 7/1 Eleanor Eloise, 12/1 Blakeshall Diamond, Decider, Lithaam, 14/1 Coconut Moon, Fizzlephut, Nusoor, 20/1 Fire Up The Band, Sovereignty, 25/1 Mr Funshine.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Couldn't be bullish about any of these but WEET A SURPRISE is proven over C&D, runs off a likeable mark and was back in fair form last month.[BDO] |
You know the drill. Class 6 0-55 handicap price gapper . BUT not Cwm Rhondda - I only mention this race as yet again these system bets did the business yesterday, not winning perhaps, but both placing. So obviously Weet a surprise is worthy of consideration on this basis alone. 1 .92 to place - nearly evens!
415 CAtterick
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Act Of Kalanisi, 11/8 Lords A Leaping, 14/1 Waltzalong, 25/1 California Bright.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he looked a little babyish on his debut there was still something to like about ACT OF KALANISI's debut at Hamilton and he is fancied to improve a good deal for that run. Lords A Leaping is preferred of the others.[EMW] |
Surely a 2 horse race ( were it not for this being a middle distance maiden where tactics may play some part) 1.13 and 1.22 the front 2 to place
730 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mythical Blue, 9/4 Dr Wintringham, 7/2 Sweet Applause, 7/1 Ba Globetrotter, 16/1 Kayceebee, 25/1 Piccaso´s Sky, 33/1 Boundless Applause, 50/1 Benetti.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There isn't much between MYTHICAL BLUE and Dr Wintringham on their recent Chepstow meeting but Mythical Blue knows where the winning post is and can strike again.[SR] |
Straight 8 here and ony 3 under double figure odds 1.17 to place in an illiquid market
800 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Tilos Gem, 7/4 Voortrekker, 8/1 Pokfulham, 16/1 Monagasque, 25/1 Madhal, Queens Forester, 33/1 Peal Park, Piccolo Express.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Voortrekker has the most potential but he looked very green at Windsor recently and could be vulnerable to the more streetwise TILOS GEM. It's hard to see any of the others being good enoug |
A 2 horse race here? The front 2 take up the majority of the market (86%) 1.17 and 1.22 the front 2 to place
820 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Royal County Star, 7/1 Oscar India, 8/1 Forget The Past, Tumbling Dice, 10/1 Breaking Silence, 12/1 On The Other Hand, 14/1 Anothercoppercoast, 16/1 Sorry Al, 20/1 Mill House Girl, O´Muircheartaigh, 25/1 Spes Ultima, War Of The World.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROYAL COUNTY STAR looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to extend his recent winning sequence to three for Tony Martin and Davy Russell. Last year's Irish National runner-up won over hurdles at this trip here last month. He went on to take a Punchestown 2m2f conditions chase at the expense of Holly Tree and French Accordion. Given his versatility in terms of ground conditions, he looks the one they all have to beat, if he runs to his current mark on this quick surface.\n |
Best price gapper of the day but happens to be in Ireland 1.11 to place bt a very illiquid market
905 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Celestial Dream, 5/1 Halaak, 7/1 Baby Queen, 8/1 Nativity, 10/1 Like For Like, 12/1 Avrilo, Brideview, 16/1 Bees River, 20/1 Fly Butterfly, 25/1 Mary Mason.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CELESTIAL DREAM (nap) is from a family that gets better with age and could prove a cut above this grade in time. She can retain her unbeaten handicap record at the expense of Halaak and Nativit |
Price gapper in a class 5 0-70 handicap - not strictly a system bet, but in a poor day I'll eek out what I can find 1.23 to place
FOOTBALL
420 Czechs v malta. No powerhouses this aging Czech team BUT look at the opposition!
1/8 to win 1.15 to win and the sight of the correct score 2 market hints at goals
1.17 over 1.5 goals
TENNIS
Is destiny alling for Fed to win his First French Open. He's no better than 1.29 to win today's semi final and really is inceentivised surely
SHORTLIST
140 EPSOM - Confront at 1.33 is a good place price and by all accounts a decent prospect but we always have to remember that this is a high class race where really all horses cannot be discounted. Still I would prefer him over Spencer on Lovelace. Still a price gapper
200 WOLVES - should be a 3 horse race but rarely will the front 3 finish 1-2-3. So inevitably the one I pick will not place !
905 BATH - Celestial Dream is a prie gapper in a lowly handicap and I hope the record continues for placing.
Czechs are 1.15 to win and it's 1.17 for over 1.5 goals. The anticipation for goals comes from the correct score 2 market
Momentum with Fed here? 1.29 is the best price of the day for fancied selections
ONE A DAY
I am unconvinced by the horses today. Lots of potentially interesting races but a lot of sub 8 runner races meaning only 2 places and a lot of seemingly 2 or 3 runner races which rarely end with both (or all 3) fancies placing)
I will go with the Czechs today at 1.15 .This can be enhanced slightly for the over 1.5 goals market and if you agree with Betfair that there will be goals, well the over 2.5 goals market is 1.54.
I personally will be getting involved in Fed again. I just feel that he knows this is his last chance ever really to win in France I don't like Epsom as a real betting medium
So one a day for the records is the Czechs.
If I were to have a horse today, I would chance the live betting favourite in the 200 Wolves hoping this is a 3 horse race
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