Well I was right enough
"A very poor day's racing if truth be told. The shortlisters all look good enough but each comes with their own niggles."
I sincerely hope you went in time order of shortlisters as Coloursoftheglen placed ( well won)
Live Chat followers would have seen me pick the 1-2-3 in Racing Hero's race ( that fecker did not place - the niggle there? handicap debut!)
Murray's 1.07 was what I based 3-0 and 3-1 on and I suspect he is layable to trade next time out after a 4 hour epic last night. The wee scot will be fooooked as they say in the Highlands, and is opposable from a trading perspective and not outright (if short enough!)
Live chatters will have amply gained recompense thanks to Hollows Glen a smoke and mirrors 16/1 winner, and a couple of betfair movers who won, and Dark Moment in the last -20/1 in the betting forecast into 7/2 and wins - coincidence? I don't think so
You saw all live market techniques last night - betfair / smoke and mirrors/16/1 and they were devastating. When to use them? Well, it was purely instinct on my part and that, alas ,cannot easily be passed on
215 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Exgray, 5/2 Waveband, 7/1 Dower Glen, 10/1 Yesnabay, 12/1 Melody In The Mist, 66/1 Ariel Bender, 100/1 Mason Hindmarsh, Ron The Don.
DIOMED VERDICT: The speedily bred Waveband is an interesting newcomer but EXGRAY sets a decent standard on her second at Musselburgh on her debut.
Maiden and Johnston horse (Waveband) - you saw last night with Licence to Till - there was not a sniff of cash for that one last night so it was a no bet and it came nowhere
That's the drill with this one. Currently 4/1 in places and no money for it this early on so one to leave alone.
The straight 8 here - 2 at 66/1 or over, \mason Hindmarsh now 33/1 (look above) - v interesting move, and MElody in the Mist 5/1 currently - these are potential market movers in a race where the market is key.
Odds on fav, you guessed it, based on one run only 1.12 the fav to place
300 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Rocky´s Pride, 100/30 Gordy Bee, 7/2 Bolanderi, 11/2 Marsool, 8/1 Rockfella, 50/1 Bedarra Boy.
DIOMED VERDICT: ROCKY'S PRIDE looks solid enough with doubts about the wellbeing of Gordy Bee in particular.
Firm ground a concern for young horses. Rocky's PRide has 2 2nds in similar grade and distance races but only 2 places 1.28 to place
545 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Drum Dragon, 11/4 Curlew, 6/1 Acquavella, 8/1 Fernando Torres, Jeunopse, 16/1 Oneofapear, 20/1 More Tea Vicar.
DIOMED VERDICT: CURLEW makes some appeal on pedigree and may be up to making a winning debut.
Money has come for this Johnston horse Curlew ,now 7/4 fav and a debutant - alas only 2 places - 1.65 to place
700 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ballodair, 5/2 Call To Arms, 9/2 Gillburg, 8/1 Layla´s Hero, 12/1 Lady Lefroy, 14/1 Go Win Girl, 16/1 Mighty Clarets, 20/1 One Cool Deal, 33/1 Mad Millie, Sweet Baby Jane.
DIOMED VERDICT: BALLODAIR looks the pick of those with experience. Call To Arms is an interesting newcomer.
Johnston's cAll to Arms is now joint fav
Only 3 under 16./1 in the live market 1.36 call to arms to place
730 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Violent Velocity, 4/1 Glenridding, 5/1 Hiccups, 9/1 Pickering, 12/1 Malcheek, 14/1 Avontuur, 16/1 Dream Express, 20/1 Mozayada, 25/1 Geezers Colours, 28/1 Royal Composer, 40/1 Nufoudh.
DIOMED VERDICT: Last year's winner VIOLENT VELOCITY (nap) came right back to form at the weekend and can follow up.
After many poor races he suddenly wins -a fluke - a staged gamble? -inconsistent fav this one -how do we know he's going to repeat the form of that win last time? 1.31 to place
745 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Keepitsecret, 7/2 Commemoration Day, 9/2 Cheeky Lad, 13/2 Phenix Jack, 8/1 Waterspray, 14/1 Eljay´s Boy, The Jolly Spoofer, 16/1 Flashy Sir.
DIOMED VERDICT: KEEPITSECRET can enhance his decent record on good to firm ground (five wins from nine starts).
Is it back to putting trust in AP McCoy again? 8 runners, 3 places, and McCoy on fav 1.28 to place
800 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Yirga, 11/4 Palacefield, 4/1 Fesko, 13/2 Johnmanderville, 8/1 Cornish Castle.
DIOMED VERDICT: YIRGA made a successful handicap debut at Sandown and should improve further.
Do we take the hint? Frankie Dettori travels to Thirsk for the ride on Yirga in a small 2 the place handicap 1.3 to place
845 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Pacha D´Oudairies, 100/30 Warsaw Pact, 4/1 Cannon Fire, 13/2 Mistanoora, 14/1 Cresswell Ruby, 16/1 Bathwick Lucy, Surenaga, 25/1 Shergill, 50/1 Spiritwind, 100/1 Stormy Chance.
DIOMED VERDICT: PACHA D'OUDAIRIES has the most solid claims, ahead of Cannon Fire and Warsaw Pact.
2nd in 3 class 4 chase starts.
Only 4 under 16/1 1.26 to place
900 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Crimea, 5/1 Medici Time, 11/2 Le Toreador, 6/1 Cape Vale, 13/2 Artsu, 8/1 Kyzer Chief, 12/1 Stolt, 20/1 Sudden Impact.
DIOMED VERDICT: CRIMEA goes handicapping off what looks a fair mark and should have more to offer. So should Medici Time, who went well on his first try at this trip.
Another handicap debutant price gapper -again we face the problem that the handicapper has one maiden run with which to assess this horse .
Positive - is a Johnston horse 1.38 to place
TENNIS - Venus Williams to win today at 1.12 looks enticing enough - again I am going by odds and not any great indepth knowledge of woman's tennis
SHORTLIST
Another tough day if trying to nail one without the live market which is key to success.
215 HAMILTON - Exgray is odds on in this 5 furlong maiden and the hope is for a reproduction of only run for the horse to place at least
1.12 certainly exudes confidence but I don't know if I'd be wanting to take 1.12 about a one time only 5 furlong maiden fav
What is interesting here is that this is an 8 runner race, 4 horses only are under 20/1. 2 horses are at 66/1 or bigger.
From a probability perspective, then, it would seem to involve 4 horses, one of whom is a MArk Johnston debutant for whom there is no sign of support in the market as I write.
All the other races this afternoon are pretty much 2 place races.
This leaves the evening and I will try and do an update at around 530
Live chat ? Hoping to do this but as you can appreciate it is MY time - my unpaid time -and expenses with electricity etc so is completely at my discretion in a month where I actually do not get paid.
I hope to be on.
I will be going to town today and hope to find a free wifi spot to use, so if I'm on, I'm on.
You saw yesterday how valuable the live betting markets are
ONE A DAY
215 Hamilton
Given the apparrent make up of the race, with 4 only under 20/1, I hope we can assume this will involve just those 4 horses, and if so ,then Exgray need only produce the form of initial run ( I know - a big leap of faith needed here given this 2 year old has only had the one run) to place IF the outsiders run as outsiders
As mentioned earlier, Mason Hindmarsh -hint of 16/1 -now 40/1 from 100/1 betting forecast and Melody in the Mist now 5/1 (12/1 betting forecast)
Waveband is v quiet at 4/1 - ominous signs that this Johnston juvenile is not expected to run favourably today.
Hopefully I will be on live chat to assess this with the great help of the live market .
VEnus Williams is 1.12 - the same price - going by price and her reputation she could be good?
Evening races hold some light if you want to wait til then?
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back-lay-trade-horse-football is a blog for getting an edge in gambling. We cover backing horses,laying horses, and trading on the betting exchanges like Betfair. We also cover backing and laying in football matches ,the Premiership and other leagues. You can profit from soccer betting -we'll show you how.
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