Spain to win were the biggest certainties I have ever seen. 1.07 was literally buying money, and although there is no such thing as a sure thing, I transferred £1500 and backed Spain at 1.07 for an easy £100. I have never been so confident in all of my life and if I had access to tens of thousands ,well I would have just kept lumping on. This surely was a " mortgage job" bet if ever there was one.
£1500 in, bet wins, £1500 transferred out and betting bank £100 better off.
230 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Barizan, 13/8 Rupestrian, 10/1 Irish Saint, 12/1 Shaker Style, 16/1 Castle Myth, 25/1 Miss Gibboa, 33/1 Inca Slew, 50/1 Strevelyn, 66/1 Pontardawe.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BARIZAN did not achieve as much at Newton Abbot as Rupestrian has done in his two victories but is probably the more able of the pair. Barizan has yet to face ground this lively but, assuming it does not stop him, he can make the most of the 7lb he receives.[Jonathan Neesom] |
Barizan the non runner surely makes Rupestrian's job a hell of a lot easier?14lb penalty should make life tougher of course. 1.08 to place
315 CARL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Rowan Lodge, 11/4 Fortunate Isle, 11/2 Captain Jacksparra, 7/1 General Feeling, 9/1 Pianoforte, 10/1 Neon Blue, 16/1 Beaumont Boy, 20/1 Carnival Dream, 25/1 Ming Vase, Reddy Ronnie, 33/1 Awaken, 40/1 Italiano, 50/1 Mister Maq, 100/1 Fan Club, Masters House.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fortunate Isle is respected on the figures and his in-form trainer has won the last two renewals of this claimer but preference is for ROWAN LODGE who is in good heart and looks nailed on to give his running.[Steven Boow] |
Race type is poor - claimer but Rowan Lodge is 121 in class 5 and class 6 claimers and sellers and at least shows a level of consistency which is normally hard to find in such race types 1.69 to place does not exude confidence
400 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Grasscutter, 85/40 Breeze Out, 6/1 Itsallyours Al, 8/1 Winged Farasi, 20/1 Dream In Blue, 40/1 Scuzme, 50/1 Nightboat To Cairo, 100/1 The Sheepdipper, 150/1 Rivers Run Free.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are reasons for taking on both previous hurdles winners Breeze Out (double penalty) and Winged Farasi (bad race), so this may finally be the day GRASSCUTTER rewards his followers' patience after an entirely serviceable first run of 2009 at Bangor last month. Assuming there are sound reasons for him to be relieved of the tongue tie, British debutant Itsallyours Al could also be worth a look.[Jeremy Grayson] |
4 horse race apparently with just 4 under 20/1. Top heavy market of Grasscutter and Breeze out may be the 2 to focus on with ,perhaps, Spotlight putting up a compelling enough argument for GRass cutter? 1.14 and 1.28 the front 2 to place
415 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Mo Mhuirnin, 5/2 Arabian Pearl, 13/2 Darcey, 8/1 Harriet´s Girl, 10/1 Chantilly Pearl, 12/1 Oriental Rose, 14/1 My Best Bet, 33/1 Meydan Groove.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MO MHUIRNIN seems frustrating on the face of things but she's had only a couple of tries in handicap company, ran well for the step up to 7f at Redcar last week and races off the same mark turned out quickly. Her stable's purple patch cements her chances of going one better. Arabian Pearl is feared most.[ |
We saw with Ice bucket yesterday that consistent placed form in handicaps doesn't really count for much when considering whether to back for the place again.
mo Mhuirnin is the model of place only consistency and will this consistency be replicated in another competitive handicap? 1.54 and 1.4 the front 2 to place
430 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Hunting Tower, 11/2 Newgate, 9/1 Dennick, 10/1 El Chico, What Happened, 11/1 Wensleydale Web, 16/1 Goldan Jess, Harcas, Samizdat, 22/1 Amalfi Coast, 40/1 Amjad, Desert Soul.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HUNTING TOWER isn't one for those of a nervous disposition, given his propensity both to run in snatches and idle in front, but McCoy is alive to all his quirks and it's entirely likely the Jimmy Lambe entire is still ahead of the handicapper. The remainder have something to find, though What Happened in particular is not without interest.[Jeremy Grayson] |
It looks like Hunting Tower and McCoy are made for each other - 2 wins under the Champ last 2 required the usual McCoy persuasion and cajoling and this may be the case again today.
Price gapper at least but faith in the jockey required for this one I think 1.31 to place in an illiquid market
550 BALLINROBE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Captain Henry, 5/1 Signore Momento, 7/1 Deal Clincher, 8/1 Saffron´s Sinorita, 10/1 Gonta Dowdies, Who You, 20/1 Go Teddy Go, Moghiollamear.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAPTAIN HENRY, having his first run at a trip beyond 7f, is hard to oppose. He was staying on at the finish when third to Castor at Limerick in April, and again left the impression that a longer trip would suit when keeping on for second place behind Coat Of Arms at Gowran.\n |
Price gapper here under Pat Smullen. Straight 8 means 3 places and would be very interesting were it not for the fact this is Ireland!
The " hard to oppose" may be persuasive enough as it was with Stacelita yesterday 1.15 to place in an illiquid market
630 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Ragsta, 6/1 Hachi, 8/1 Nicosia, 9/1 China Bay, 10/1 Atomic Twister, 12/1 Cecil´s Gift, 14/1 Chinoise, 16/1 Acting Elegant, Jasmine Scent, 20/1 Baby Judge, 25/1 Abbi Jicaro, Carries Lass, 40/1 Saachi´s Vision, 50/1 Our Georgie Girl.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A little bit surprising to see RAGSTA dropped to this level so soon, as she has shown enough to win a weak maiden somewhere, last time fourth in a fair contest at Lingfield. If she runs to that level in selling grade here, she will set a very good standard. [Mel Cullinan] Price gap of 10/11 - - - - 7/1 for this one, but it is a big field seller but why the sudden drop to selling company? A gamble afoot? 1.2 to place 700 WINDSOR BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Footstepsofspring, 6/1 Belinsky, 12/1 Thaliwarru, 14/1 Be A Devil, Glass Of Red, 16/1 Wing Of Faith, 20/1 Almuntaser, 25/1 Nepotism, 33/1 Split The Pot.
2 2nds already hint at consistency in maiden company and 1/2 signals perhaps it's time for a win today? Price gapper here and a maiden with a few debutants who could be anything. 1.08 to place 710 WARWICK BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Aalsmeer, 3/1 Velvet Band, 4/1 Virginia Hall, 8/1 Excellent Thought, 10/1 Deal, 20/1 Val C, 33/1 Exceed Power, Monte Mayor One, 100/1 Satin Princess, Totally Invincible.
Another price gapper here , and in the live market it's 5/6 - - - 6/1 which is eyecatching.BUT this is yet another maiden race over 5 furlongs where there is a hint that the draw might play a part. Aalsmeer is the price gapper but has a bad draw. The shorter the distance, the more accentuated the draw bias. 1.17 to place 800 WINDSOR BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Buckie Boy, 7/2 Stellar Cause, 11/2 Plymouth Rock, 15/2 Golden Rock, 8/1 Assail, Watchoverme, 11/1 Carbon Print, Panto Princess, 16/1 Monopole, 33/1 Mr Kartoffel, 50/1 Gospel Spirit, Kaijai, 66/1 Achieved, Lilleput, Restless Swallow, Whispered Lands.
A certain degree of confidence inserting a fav at 6/4 in a 16 runner 1 mile 2 maiden race with 6 debutants and at least 6 one time outers open to improvement. In such a big field ,over these middle distances, the onus is on the jockey's decision making capabilities to judge pace and not get boxed in. 1.29 to place FOOTBALL THe confederations cup continues today with Brazil 1/4 to beat Egypt. 1.26 match odds. 1.2 over 1.5 goals England under 21's are 1/3 to beat Finland and this is a good crop of English players under Psycho who I'm sure instils that bulldog spirit. 1.34 the win, 1.28 over 1.5 goals. Some household names in the England under 21 squad should really instil confidence here. SHORTLIST 230 SEDGEFIELD he original market had this between Barazan and Rupestrian but with the former's defection, surely this makes Rupestrian's job far easier, not just to place, but to win? 1.08 I suppose reflects that. NEGATIVES? 14lb rise for Rupestrian but why ,then ,is he odds on if the market see this as an easy to overcome penalty? 4 debutants and 4 one time outers over hurdles may improve considerably? 400 SEDGEFIELD From a probability perspective, 4 horses under 20/1 should be the 4 that are vying for the 3 places available. So ,of those 4, who has the greater likelihood of placing? GRasscutter - receives weight from Breeze out today - good recent run at Bangor should have brushed aside the cobwebs BReeze out - McCoy on board -form of 2211 is great. Concedes a stone to Grasscutter 1.13 and 1.27 these 2 to place 550 BALLINROBE - CAptain HEnry is included thanks mostly to the booking of Pat Smullen, the straight 8 runners meaning any selection only has 5 to beat to place, and 3 outsiders at 25/1, 33/1 and 33/1 who hopefully can be discounted. Also helped by the contention that the horse is " hard to oppose" NEGATIVES - plenty of odds on shocks in Ireland 1.13 to place 700 WINDSOR - Footsteps of Spring at 1.08 to place looks solid but then the short price does hint at that!! FOOTBALL. Brazil at 1/4 are usually worth backing and with the very impressive Amir Zaki absent for the Egyptians, and with Brazil beating their nemesis Paraguay recently, a full strength side should win. England's under 21's boast a smattering of 1st team players ,and a host of premiership hardened players and really should dispose of Finland The game is being played in Sweden . ONE A DAY Grasscutter looks to be my one a day at 1.13 in what looks a 4 horse race. I only hope that the horse does not fall, get pulled up, or unseat rider. At 3pm, I will be backing Brazil in the hope they can score first. Hopefully this game will be sorted before 400 Sedgefield so I don't need to get involved in that. This might just be a tightish game for the Brazilians here so the hope is for a nice early breakthrough and a trade out thereafter. I an guage the game by watching it luckily. | ||||||
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