Well I was right enough
"A very poor day's racing if truth be told. The shortlisters all look good enough but each comes with their own niggles."
I sincerely hope you went in time order of shortlisters as Coloursoftheglen placed ( well won)
Live Chat followers would have seen me pick the 1-2-3 in Racing Hero's race ( that fecker did not place - the niggle there? handicap debut!)
Murray's 1.07 was what I based 3-0 and 3-1 on and I suspect he is layable to trade next time out after a 4 hour epic last night. The wee scot will be fooooked as they say in the Highlands, and is opposable from a trading perspective and not outright (if short enough!)
Live chatters will have amply gained recompense thanks to Hollows Glen a smoke and mirrors 16/1 winner, and a couple of betfair movers who won, and Dark Moment in the last -20/1 in the betting forecast into 7/2 and wins - coincidence? I don't think so
You saw all live market techniques last night - betfair / smoke and mirrors/16/1 and they were devastating. When to use them? Well, it was purely instinct on my part and that, alas ,cannot easily be passed on
215 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Exgray, 5/2 Waveband, 7/1 Dower Glen, 10/1 Yesnabay, 12/1 Melody In The Mist, 66/1 Ariel Bender, 100/1 Mason Hindmarsh, Ron The Don.
DIOMED VERDICT: The speedily bred Waveband is an interesting newcomer but EXGRAY sets a decent standard on her second at Musselburgh on her debut.
Maiden and Johnston horse (Waveband) - you saw last night with Licence to Till - there was not a sniff of cash for that one last night so it was a no bet and it came nowhere
That's the drill with this one. Currently 4/1 in places and no money for it this early on so one to leave alone.
The straight 8 here - 2 at 66/1 or over, \mason Hindmarsh now 33/1 (look above) - v interesting move, and MElody in the Mist 5/1 currently - these are potential market movers in a race where the market is key.
Odds on fav, you guessed it, based on one run only 1.12 the fav to place
300 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Rocky´s Pride, 100/30 Gordy Bee, 7/2 Bolanderi, 11/2 Marsool, 8/1 Rockfella, 50/1 Bedarra Boy.
DIOMED VERDICT: ROCKY'S PRIDE looks solid enough with doubts about the wellbeing of Gordy Bee in particular.
Firm ground a concern for young horses. Rocky's PRide has 2 2nds in similar grade and distance races but only 2 places 1.28 to place
545 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Drum Dragon, 11/4 Curlew, 6/1 Acquavella, 8/1 Fernando Torres, Jeunopse, 16/1 Oneofapear, 20/1 More Tea Vicar.
DIOMED VERDICT: CURLEW makes some appeal on pedigree and may be up to making a winning debut.
Money has come for this Johnston horse Curlew ,now 7/4 fav and a debutant - alas only 2 places - 1.65 to place
700 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ballodair, 5/2 Call To Arms, 9/2 Gillburg, 8/1 Layla´s Hero, 12/1 Lady Lefroy, 14/1 Go Win Girl, 16/1 Mighty Clarets, 20/1 One Cool Deal, 33/1 Mad Millie, Sweet Baby Jane.
DIOMED VERDICT: BALLODAIR looks the pick of those with experience. Call To Arms is an interesting newcomer.
Johnston's cAll to Arms is now joint fav
Only 3 under 16./1 in the live market 1.36 call to arms to place
730 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Violent Velocity, 4/1 Glenridding, 5/1 Hiccups, 9/1 Pickering, 12/1 Malcheek, 14/1 Avontuur, 16/1 Dream Express, 20/1 Mozayada, 25/1 Geezers Colours, 28/1 Royal Composer, 40/1 Nufoudh.
DIOMED VERDICT: Last year's winner VIOLENT VELOCITY (nap) came right back to form at the weekend and can follow up.
After many poor races he suddenly wins -a fluke - a staged gamble? -inconsistent fav this one -how do we know he's going to repeat the form of that win last time? 1.31 to place
745 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Keepitsecret, 7/2 Commemoration Day, 9/2 Cheeky Lad, 13/2 Phenix Jack, 8/1 Waterspray, 14/1 Eljay´s Boy, The Jolly Spoofer, 16/1 Flashy Sir.
DIOMED VERDICT: KEEPITSECRET can enhance his decent record on good to firm ground (five wins from nine starts).
Is it back to putting trust in AP McCoy again? 8 runners, 3 places, and McCoy on fav 1.28 to place
800 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Yirga, 11/4 Palacefield, 4/1 Fesko, 13/2 Johnmanderville, 8/1 Cornish Castle.
DIOMED VERDICT: YIRGA made a successful handicap debut at Sandown and should improve further.
Do we take the hint? Frankie Dettori travels to Thirsk for the ride on Yirga in a small 2 the place handicap 1.3 to place
845 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Pacha D´Oudairies, 100/30 Warsaw Pact, 4/1 Cannon Fire, 13/2 Mistanoora, 14/1 Cresswell Ruby, 16/1 Bathwick Lucy, Surenaga, 25/1 Shergill, 50/1 Spiritwind, 100/1 Stormy Chance.
DIOMED VERDICT: PACHA D'OUDAIRIES has the most solid claims, ahead of Cannon Fire and Warsaw Pact.
2nd in 3 class 4 chase starts.
Only 4 under 16/1 1.26 to place
900 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Crimea, 5/1 Medici Time, 11/2 Le Toreador, 6/1 Cape Vale, 13/2 Artsu, 8/1 Kyzer Chief, 12/1 Stolt, 20/1 Sudden Impact.
DIOMED VERDICT: CRIMEA goes handicapping off what looks a fair mark and should have more to offer. So should Medici Time, who went well on his first try at this trip.
Another handicap debutant price gapper -again we face the problem that the handicapper has one maiden run with which to assess this horse .
Positive - is a Johnston horse 1.38 to place
TENNIS - Venus Williams to win today at 1.12 looks enticing enough - again I am going by odds and not any great indepth knowledge of woman's tennis
SHORTLIST
Another tough day if trying to nail one without the live market which is key to success.
215 HAMILTON - Exgray is odds on in this 5 furlong maiden and the hope is for a reproduction of only run for the horse to place at least
1.12 certainly exudes confidence but I don't know if I'd be wanting to take 1.12 about a one time only 5 furlong maiden fav
What is interesting here is that this is an 8 runner race, 4 horses only are under 20/1. 2 horses are at 66/1 or bigger.
From a probability perspective, then, it would seem to involve 4 horses, one of whom is a MArk Johnston debutant for whom there is no sign of support in the market as I write.
All the other races this afternoon are pretty much 2 place races.
This leaves the evening and I will try and do an update at around 530
Live chat ? Hoping to do this but as you can appreciate it is MY time - my unpaid time -and expenses with electricity etc so is completely at my discretion in a month where I actually do not get paid.
I hope to be on.
I will be going to town today and hope to find a free wifi spot to use, so if I'm on, I'm on.
You saw yesterday how valuable the live betting markets are
ONE A DAY
215 Hamilton
Given the apparrent make up of the race, with 4 only under 20/1, I hope we can assume this will involve just those 4 horses, and if so ,then Exgray need only produce the form of initial run ( I know - a big leap of faith needed here given this 2 year old has only had the one run) to place IF the outsiders run as outsiders
As mentioned earlier, Mason Hindmarsh -hint of 16/1 -now 40/1 from 100/1 betting forecast and Melody in the Mist now 5/1 (12/1 betting forecast)
Waveband is v quiet at 4/1 - ominous signs that this Johnston juvenile is not expected to run favourably today.
Hopefully I will be on live chat to assess this with the great help of the live market .
VEnus Williams is 1.12 - the same price - going by price and her reputation she could be good?
Evening races hold some light if you want to wait til then?
Tuesday, 30 June 2009
Monday, 29 June 2009
29/6
Enchanced bets case study USA V BRAZIL
Perfect enhanced bets example last night. 1.45 Brazil go 2-0 down and are available to back at 7. I availed myself of some of this and traded out after they scored and the price reduced to 3.8 although if I had had kahunas, I would be sitting on a £600 profit after they got the 3-2 win !
Needed faith this bet but those watching the match did see a good Brazil performance and a USA side that was more easily breached than they had been against Spain.
There were plenty of one a day opportunities over the weekend and I hope you got some - Fame and Glory was superb at 1.20 yesterday for example and Andy Murray against that bloke last time out 3-0 looked nailed after the nerves had settled.
230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Sarasota Sunshine, 9/2 Villaruz, 11/2 Angelo Poliziano, 13/2 Tillers Satisfied, 15/2 Deckchair, 8/1 Billy Beetroot, 12/1 Two Turtle Doves, 14/1 You Avin A Laugh, 16/1 Piccolinda, Tarruji, 18/1 Dalepak Flyer, 20/1 Come On Buckers, 33/1 Maigh Eo.
DIOMED VERDICT: SARASOTA SUNSHINE gets the vote ahead of Villaruz and Angelo Poliziano
DIOMED VERDICT: SARASOTA SUNSHINE gets the vote ahead of Villaruz and Angelo Poliziano
It's always an advantage if you have a focus on one specific horse and ,for me, that is Billy Beetroot. Held now in last 2 runs - is he a layable price for a one a day lay bet? 13.5 to lay
300 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Harry Up, 11/4 Northern Empire, 6/1 Know No Fear, 15/2 Russian Rocket, 10/1 Spic ´n Span, 11/1 Diane´s Choice, 14/1 Pressed For Time, 16/1 Decider, 18/1 Bertbrand, 25/1 Fire Up The Band, Woqoodd, 28/1 Tag Team, 33/1 Meikle Barfil.
DIOMED VERDICT: NORTHERN EMPIRE is narrowly preferred to Harry Up.
This new Diomed is really rubbish !
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Harry Up, 11/4 Northern Empire, 6/1 Know No Fear, 15/2 Russian Rocket, 10/1 Spic ´n Span, 11/1 Diane´s Choice, 14/1 Pressed For Time, 16/1 Decider, 18/1 Bertbrand, 25/1 Fire Up The Band, Woqoodd, 28/1 Tag Team, 33/1 Meikle Barfil.
DIOMED VERDICT: NORTHERN EMPIRE is narrowly preferred to Harry Up.
This new Diomed is really rubbish !
HArry up and Northern Empire are 2 that form a price gap
Now Harry Up is a non runner, will this make Northern Empire's chances even better? 1.41 to place. Good runs do eventually end sometime and especially in these low grade affairs
400 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dabbers Ridge, 5/2 Beauchamp Viceroy, 5/1 Hanoverian Baron, 13/2 Strabinios King, 9/1 Mocha Java, 12/1 Haroldini, 18/1 The London Gang, 20/1 Dazzling Colours, 25/1 Appelouse, Ten Pole Tudor, 33/1 Sun Catcher, 40/1 Broughtons Silk.
DIOMED VERDICT: DABBERS RIDGE is marginally preferred to the useful but quirky Beauchamp Viceroy.
DIOMED VERDICT: DABBERS RIDGE is marginally preferred to the useful but quirky Beauchamp Viceroy.
I must be getting desparate checking out an apprentice riders claimer but, again, a significant non runner (2nd fav) may make life easier for the market principles to place?
5 horses in the live market are under 20/1 - the ones to concentrate on perhaps? Dabbers ridge , of course, has shortened in the live betting market 1.42 to place
430 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Coloursoftheglen, 11/4 Bradford, 9/2 Fonterutoli, 11/2 Motivational, 6/1 Bandear, 10/1 Execution, 14/1 Bonfire Knight, 33/1 Port Hill, 66/1 Reel Love, Woodenitbenice, 100/1 Beach Boy, Ellies Image.
DIOMED VERDICT: COLOURSOFTHEGLEN should have plenty to offer switched to the AW on what he's shown on turf at this trip.
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Coloursoftheglen, 11/4 Bradford, 9/2 Fonterutoli, 11/2 Motivational, 6/1 Bandear, 10/1 Execution, 14/1 Bonfire Knight, 33/1 Port Hill, 66/1 Reel Love, Woodenitbenice, 100/1 Beach Boy, Ellies Image.
DIOMED VERDICT: COLOURSOFTHEGLEN should have plenty to offer switched to the AW on what he's shown on turf at this trip.
3rd fav a non runner and he had some decent form relative to a maiden such as this so a worthy rival can now be discounted.
The front 2 have the form in the book - I like to see consistent placed form especially when looking at maidens. 1.31 and 1.41 the front 2 to place
POSITIVES - 4 of the 11 remaining are 66/1 or bigger
NEGATIVES - 4 debutants (could be anything?) - 7 once or twice raced horses open tio significant improvement?
Market leaders also face debuts on the all weather - will they cope with the kickback, keeping in mind these horses are still have the old learner plates on!
710 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Fyodor, 7/2 Leftontheshelf, 4/1 El Dececy, 7/1 Bertie Southstreet, 8/1 Duke Of Milan, 9/1 Matuza, 16/1 Irish Music, 20/1 Outer Hebrides, 25/1 Bolshoi King, Silver Salsa, 33/1 Richardlionheart, 40/1 The Jailer, 50/1 Fly In Johnny, Talamahana.
DIOMED VERDICT: He may not have the best form claims but EL DECECY's win record at this level in 2009 is not to be scoffed at and he gets the vote.
El Dececy has found his level in these races and was put up before when he won, but strangely priced at 3/1 for one with such a good record in sellers 1.68 to place
755 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Licence To Till, 5/2 Mal And Dave, 7/2 Ignatieff, 6/1 Mercers Row, 10/1 Jigajig, 16/1 Sir Christie, 40/1 Camacho Flyer, Charity Fair.
DIOMED VERDICT: LICENCE TO TILL wouldn't need to be anything out of the ordinary to make a winning debut and market support would be significant.
I've already flagged this up plenty of times - Mark Johnston juveniles in maidens are simply on fire ,especially at the northern tracks. A quite outstanding win and place record most recently, ESPECIALLY IF THE MONEY IS DOWN, and with this race at 755, we cannot really tell at time of writing - Licence to Till is the horse in question
810 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Racing Hero, 6/1 Pelham Crescent, 7/1 Rio Guru, Trans Siberian, 8/1 Buddy Holly, Quince, 12/1 Roly Boy, 14/1 Resurge, 16/1 Blow Hole.
DIOMED VERDICT: Tidy Doncaster maiden winner RACING HERO has a good opportunity to win a handicap at the first attempt.
First real price gap of the day and replicated in the live market at the time of writing.
Ryan Moore ridees for Jeremy Noseda. Handicap debutant the concern but if we can have faith in the price gapper philosophy, then this is shortlisted in a poor day's racing 1.16 to place - so long to go til the start of the race and so strong already in the market!
825 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Mooted, 3/1 Solas Alainn, 4/1 Thorny Mandate, 5/1 Piper´s Song, 11/2 Papa´s Princess, 12/1 Ptolomeos.
DIOMED VERDICT: SOLAS ALAINN can take advantage of a fair mark dropped back in grade. Mooted is feared most.
Early money for the Johnston horse Solas Alainn has pushed that into favouratism BUT note this is not a Johnston juvenile. 1.57 to place
SHORTLIST
A poor day's racing with potentially firm grounded Pontefract and the all weather at Wolves this afternoon, and 2 turf flat meetings this evening
430 WOLVES - Coloursoftheglen is interesting here if running as he did on his last 2 2nd places in maiden company - problem is this horse is an all weather debutant
Only 6 horses under 33/1 should be the ones who are there at the finish. There are a few 5/1 - 7/1 horses itching to get inolved in what looks a competitive enough remainder of the field.
755 MUSS - One for nearer the off. If the market speaks for Licence to Till, then get stuck in I think, but is far to early to make any comment with race somne 8 hours hence
810 WINDSOR - Racing Hero the only bonefide price gapper of the day making his debut in a handicap and priced to be extremely competitive.
No footy on today
Murray 3-0 and 3-1 dutch is 1.17 equivalent bet. I'm just going by the 1.07 odds which suggest an easy victory
Federer/Murray/Djokovic multiple is 1.13 payout but of course is not reliant on a single outcome, rather on 3 separate bets coming in
ONE A DAY
A very poor day's racing if truth be told. The shortlisters all look good enough but each comes with their own niggles.
COLOURSOFTHEGLEN - debut on all weather - how will this (still learning) horse cope with kickback? Maiden race - looks a 6 horse race if we can discount all those 33/1 or bigger
LICENCE TO TILL - working purrely on reputation and recent record of trainer here as this is a debutant - cannot make a decision as far too early and this will really be prevalent on the actual live betting market and perceived money for this horse
RACING HERO - Perhaps THE pick today but another niggle - a handicap debutant -has the handicapper assessed this one properly? THe price gap is very very eyecatching even this early on
MURRAY 3-0 and 3-1 dutch. Will Andy continue in the confident form of last time out with the nerves of the first match behind him 3-1 and 3-0 dutch is certainly enticing
All being well, I can get live chat going this afternoon for the afternoon racing ( although it is poor today I will have to guage live whether it is worth spending time live over poor race types with 15 min delays between racing)
Instinct tells me the Murray dutch is good, as this is tradeable and later on this evening the Racing Hero price gapper looks to be the one with the LEAST niggles! HE was an actual palce only pick last time if memory serves. These would be my one a day considerations
As hinted at ,all shortlisters look good and the hope is, using live chat (if I can get it configured on this new pc) that We can react to late non runners who may produce some good place only opportunities. So I'll be putting my faith in Ruby Murrayto curry favour with us dutch sets bettors!
Friday, 26 June 2009
26/6
NORMAL SERVICE RESUMES MONDAY 29TH JUNE 2009 WITH LIVE CHAT
AS YOU CAN APPRECIATE THIS IS FREE SO I WANT A BREAK TO SEE MY NEPHEWS AND NEICES.
AS YOU CAN APPRECIATE THIS IS FREE SO I WANT A BREAK TO SEE MY NEPHEWS AND NEICES.
Wednesday, 24 June 2009
24/6
Well was Murray a losing bet? Well, yes, BUT at 4-3 in the first set, 3-0 Murray was trading at 1.10 and an ideal trade for an equivalent 1.19 bet as live chatters will attest.
This was too good to ignore, as the first set was NOT even finished, but layers obviously thought 3-0 was in the bag!
So a winning one a day bet only if traded, as I know some do. With these long term bets - could be hours in tennis, get out as early as possible for the lowest odds possible.
It was for this eventuality that live chat was brought in and so it proved yesterday. Before Murray anyway, Rock of Love, Everymanforhimself and Burns Night were highlighted as potential good place bets ( the latter coming as Betfair crashed with was frustrating as yet another Mark Johnston supported juvenile wins)
200 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 William Morgan, 7/2 Merseyside Star, Trailblazing, 4/1 Reallymissgreeley, 10/1 Ya Boy Sir, 14/1 Lucky Traveller, 25/1 Gypsy Jazz.
And so to another in Trailblazing, currently 7/4 favourite and some support. Only 2 places alas. For how long with Mark Johnston continue with this superb juvenile form ( 2 wins yesterday from 2 highlighted) It will end eventually, he said pessimistically. 1.78 to place today emphasises the tight nature of this race
Has leapfrogged into favouratism. Why is stable jockey on the 33/1 outsider for another trainer? Hmmm!
220 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Factotum, 2/1 Vacario, 4/1 King´s Alchemist, 7/1 Galilean, 14/1 Sweet As Pye, 20/1 Houri, 25/1 Across The Divide, 33/1 Benefit Game, Owen´s Sedge, 100/1 Elegant Olive, It´s Molly, Jeanry, The Duckster, 200/1 Midsummer Bay.
McCoy proved his worth on shorties yesterday -more of the same today or Factotum? 4 under 14/1 in the betting forecast
4 under 20/1 in the live betting Front 2 look to have been found a " weak race" as Spotlight says. Suspicion Factotum doesn't find much but surely the McCoy persuader will keep him alive.
POSITIVES - only 4 runners under 20/1 hint at a lot of deadwood.
A 2 miler so the obstacles are not as much of a concern than if this were 3 mile 6 for instanace
1.2 and 1.38 the front 2. McCoy was superb yesterday on the short priced fancies -can we rely on the Champ again?
255 WORC
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Native City, 7/2 Keoghs Tradbar, 9/2 That´s An Honour, 11/2 I´m A Legend, 6/1 Bathwick Breeze, 8/1 Carthys Cross, 10/1 Katalak, 14/1 Letham Island, 33/1 Gunner Rose, 50/1 Marado, 66/1 Lansdowne Princess, Overton Lad, Yes Ses Les,
McCoy on another shortie, price gapper in the live market Concern he was only 5th of 9 under today's jockey last time out. Live market 6/4 - - - - 6/1 - price gap but Betting forecast had this a bit closer. 2 mile 7 a long distance 1.43 to place
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hasty, 3/1 Gumnd, 11/2 Chairman Pat, 7/1 Rezwaan, 8/1 Duplicity, 12/1 Dubai Miracle, 14/1 Invincible Prince, 20/1 Durham Town, 33/1 First Cat, Mountrath,
Progressive form for the favourite here but a maiden race 4 one time outers open to potential improvement.4 debutants too who could be anything. race a long way away so market must be consulted
And that's it really! A day where real price gappers are thin on the ground and it woud seem that success may fall at the hands of McCoy in his 2 races with plnty of opposition and obstacles to overcome!.
FOOTBALL
Spain take on the Yanks who gave me a kick in the knackers the other day when deciding to play football against Egypt.
But I suspect Spain are a little moe reliable that the Pharaohs.
The first USA goal was shocking and should never have been scored. THey will NOT get these chances against the Spanish
1.28 to win in the match odds. Learning from yesterday, you MUST trade out if Spain are lucy enough to score first.
SHORTLIST
I am not comortable with any of these today. HAsty needs market consultation nearer the off. Factotum looks the safest bet today in the hope that the race involves only 4 horses (the 4 under 20/1) I don't like top heavy markets as one of Factotum and Vicario may not place.
We saw in the 500 Brighton yesterday a 4 horse race and 3 places and the fav DID NOT place - these things happen regardless of how good a bet appears on paper
Still 1.2 in the place market hints that the market expects the Champ to continue his find recent form on hotpots.
Trailblazing in the first race is from a red hot yard whose juveniles continue to win . BAced into favouratism, those with glass half full will see 1.78 as an outstanding bet
Thoe with glass half empty will see 1.78 as the maret telling us he is not even guaranteed to place in what looks a tight race.
The betting forecast for Native City's match saw a tight affair, which is not reflected in the live market with a noticeable price gap. A poor run last time out sticks in my mind under CHamp jockey last time out.
Those DAMN YANKS! Are they going to be put to bed this evening? They shouldn't even be in this game! Spain should oblige surely? 1.28 looks a good bet in light of today's sparcity of price gappers.
Ever the glutton for punishment, Federer is priced the same as Murray yesterday, and 1.25 for 3-0 ,same as Murray, but Fed has been here, done that ad doesn't have the pressure of Andy Murray?
As you can see, I'm trying to look for bets here. This should be tradeable again if Federer wins the first set as expected, OR if Fed breaks early.
Any involvement here will require live involvement.
ONE A DAY
Not happy with anything today to be honest.
This is a potential option, covering 3 of the top 4 who are under 20/1 in the 220 Worcester
And watch the 4th win!!
An official no bet day for me today to be honest with you. My shortlist though for possible live involvement woould be 220 Worcester and Factotum at 1.20 just hoping AP McCoy is the difference
Spain must surely beat the lucky Yanks this evening? You think that 1.28 is outstanding.
In a sparce day, Fed 3-0 is 1.25 AND TRADEABLE if he breaks early in the first set
As the Big Brother Geordie presenter says " YOU DECIDE"
NO LIVE CHAT TODAY AND POSSIBLY NO BLOG OR LIVE CHAT TOMORROW AS I AM PREPARING TO TRAVEL BACK TO GUERNSEY.
This was too good to ignore, as the first set was NOT even finished, but layers obviously thought 3-0 was in the bag!
So a winning one a day bet only if traded, as I know some do. With these long term bets - could be hours in tennis, get out as early as possible for the lowest odds possible.
It was for this eventuality that live chat was brought in and so it proved yesterday. Before Murray anyway, Rock of Love, Everymanforhimself and Burns Night were highlighted as potential good place bets ( the latter coming as Betfair crashed with was frustrating as yet another Mark Johnston supported juvenile wins)
200 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 William Morgan, 7/2 Merseyside Star, Trailblazing, 4/1 Reallymissgreeley, 10/1 Ya Boy Sir, 14/1 Lucky Traveller, 25/1 Gypsy Jazz.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see how the market speaks about William Morgan, but TRAILBLAZING is bred to do a lot better than he showed on his debut and his yard's juveniles have been in really good form. |
And so to another in Trailblazing, currently 7/4 favourite and some support. Only 2 places alas. For how long with Mark Johnston continue with this superb juvenile form ( 2 wins yesterday from 2 highlighted) It will end eventually, he said pessimistically. 1.78 to place today emphasises the tight nature of this race
Has leapfrogged into favouratism. Why is stable jockey on the 33/1 outsider for another trainer? Hmmm!
220 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Factotum, 2/1 Vacario, 4/1 King´s Alchemist, 7/1 Galilean, 14/1 Sweet As Pye, 20/1 Houri, 25/1 Across The Divide, 33/1 Benefit Game, Owen´s Sedge, 100/1 Elegant Olive, It´s Molly, Jeanry, The Duckster, 200/1 Midsummer Bay.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Factotum has made a sticky start over hurdles and it wasn't necessarily a step forward in winning at Uttoxeter so preference is for VACARIO, who appeared to be a lot more focused on the job with cheekpieces applied here last time. King's Alchemist is a danger to both of them |
McCoy proved his worth on shorties yesterday -more of the same today or Factotum? 4 under 14/1 in the betting forecast
4 under 20/1 in the live betting Front 2 look to have been found a " weak race" as Spotlight says. Suspicion Factotum doesn't find much but surely the McCoy persuader will keep him alive.
POSITIVES - only 4 runners under 20/1 hint at a lot of deadwood.
A 2 miler so the obstacles are not as much of a concern than if this were 3 mile 6 for instanace
1.2 and 1.38 the front 2. McCoy was superb yesterday on the short priced fancies -can we rely on the Champ again?
255 WORC
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Native City, 7/2 Keoghs Tradbar, 9/2 That´s An Honour, 11/2 I´m A Legend, 6/1 Bathwick Breeze, 8/1 Carthys Cross, 10/1 Katalak, 14/1 Letham Island, 33/1 Gunner Rose, 50/1 Marado, 66/1 Lansdowne Princess, Overton Lad, Yes Ses Les,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NATIVE CITY, a winner on this card 12 months ago, steps out of handicap company for the first time over fences and it looks a good move, as this is an extremely weak race and one he should win if putting his best foot forward.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones] |
McCoy on another shortie, price gapper in the live market Concern he was only 5th of 9 under today's jockey last time out. Live market 6/4 - - - - 6/1 - price gap but Betting forecast had this a bit closer. 2 mile 7 a long distance 1.43 to place
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hasty, 3/1 Gumnd, 11/2 Chairman Pat, 7/1 Rezwaan, 8/1 Duplicity, 12/1 Dubai Miracle, 14/1 Invincible Prince, 20/1 Durham Town, 33/1 First Cat, Mountrath,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HASTY gets the nod in view of the continuing good form of her yard and her conqueror last time going on to acquit herself very well in higher company at Royal Ascot. Chairman Pat is her nearest rival on form but Gumnd was clearly expected to do a lot better on her debut and could be the one to chase her home. |
Progressive form for the favourite here but a maiden race 4 one time outers open to potential improvement.4 debutants too who could be anything. race a long way away so market must be consulted
And that's it really! A day where real price gappers are thin on the ground and it woud seem that success may fall at the hands of McCoy in his 2 races with plnty of opposition and obstacles to overcome!.
FOOTBALL
Spain take on the Yanks who gave me a kick in the knackers the other day when deciding to play football against Egypt.
But I suspect Spain are a little moe reliable that the Pharaohs.
The first USA goal was shocking and should never have been scored. THey will NOT get these chances against the Spanish
1.28 to win in the match odds. Learning from yesterday, you MUST trade out if Spain are lucy enough to score first.
SHORTLIST
I am not comortable with any of these today. HAsty needs market consultation nearer the off. Factotum looks the safest bet today in the hope that the race involves only 4 horses (the 4 under 20/1) I don't like top heavy markets as one of Factotum and Vicario may not place.
We saw in the 500 Brighton yesterday a 4 horse race and 3 places and the fav DID NOT place - these things happen regardless of how good a bet appears on paper
Still 1.2 in the place market hints that the market expects the Champ to continue his find recent form on hotpots.
Trailblazing in the first race is from a red hot yard whose juveniles continue to win . BAced into favouratism, those with glass half full will see 1.78 as an outstanding bet
Thoe with glass half empty will see 1.78 as the maret telling us he is not even guaranteed to place in what looks a tight race.
The betting forecast for Native City's match saw a tight affair, which is not reflected in the live market with a noticeable price gap. A poor run last time out sticks in my mind under CHamp jockey last time out.
Those DAMN YANKS! Are they going to be put to bed this evening? They shouldn't even be in this game! Spain should oblige surely? 1.28 looks a good bet in light of today's sparcity of price gappers.
Ever the glutton for punishment, Federer is priced the same as Murray yesterday, and 1.25 for 3-0 ,same as Murray, but Fed has been here, done that ad doesn't have the pressure of Andy Murray?
As you can see, I'm trying to look for bets here. This should be tradeable again if Federer wins the first set as expected, OR if Fed breaks early.
Any involvement here will require live involvement.
ONE A DAY
Not happy with anything today to be honest.
This is a potential option, covering 3 of the top 4 who are under 20/1 in the 220 Worcester
And watch the 4th win!!
An official no bet day for me today to be honest with you. My shortlist though for possible live involvement woould be 220 Worcester and Factotum at 1.20 just hoping AP McCoy is the difference
Spain must surely beat the lucky Yanks this evening? You think that 1.28 is outstanding.
In a sparce day, Fed 3-0 is 1.25 AND TRADEABLE if he breaks early in the first set
As the Big Brother Geordie presenter says " YOU DECIDE"
NO LIVE CHAT TODAY AND POSSIBLY NO BLOG OR LIVE CHAT TOMORROW AS I AM PREPARING TO TRAVEL BACK TO GUERNSEY.
Tuesday, 23 June 2009
23/6
Couldn't do blog yesterday but lice chatters sniffed out Aureate to place and he obliged well.
I am away 25th June, back to see family .I don't get paid in July so live chat and blog may be intermittent during July
Andy Murray plays today and 1.24 for a 3 set whitewash looks very enticing for the world number 3
215 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Rock Of Love, 7/4 Going French, 9/2 Scilly Breeze, 8/1 Mary Celest, 16/1 High Rolling, 25/1 Billy´s Bid, Eeny Mac.
You know by now it's good to stick with a trainer in a specific race when he's hot. Mark Johnston of course - Rock of Love is now odds on and Greg Fairley takes the ride. Problem is 2 strong market leaders and as we know they don't always finish 1 and 2 and maidens can bring one from the outsiders to place.
But I am taken by the fact this is MArk Johnston whose maiden excursions have been absolutely superb 1.38 to place and only 2 places
330 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Caribbean Coral, 100/30 Landucci, 4/1 Joss Stick, 9/2 Rockfield Lodge, 10/1 Arfinnit, 14/1 Supreme Speedster, 16/1 Nawaaff, 20/1 Easy Wonder, Place The Duchess.
4 under 10/1 (14/1 in the live market) could be the ones to focus on? 1.34 the fav to place
415 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Everymanforhimself, 7/2 Aegean Dancer, 5/1 Fol Hollow, Namir, 13/2 Discanti, 8/1 Bo McGinty, 12/1 Secret Asset, 16/1 Hypnosis.
Aegean Dancer is out which could make life easier for Every?
7 runners and 3 places 1.39 to place and 3 places
445 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Aqwaas, 3/1 Helieorbea, 14/1 Admiral Of The Dee, 18/1 Carragold, 20/1 Rose Avelina, 33/1 Hopeful Lady.
Default selection here? 1.09 to place 2nd fav 1.6 (illiquid market) but thee only horse under odds on in the place market and under 14/1 in the win market
515 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Starla Dancer, 11/4 Almuktahem, 7/2 Burns Night, 4/1 Cabernet Sauvignon, 11/2 Steel Trade, 50/1 Smitain.
Money for a J0ohnston juvenile has proven a very effective winning system recently. Burns night is now fav here and 7/4 1.67 to place - illiquid market
630 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Havenstone, 3/1 Micks Prospect, 8/1 Sizing Asia, 11/1 Dancing Credit, 16/1 Maderson Blue, Occasionally Yours, 20/1 Ballygulleen, Cilrhiwron, 25/1 Just Silver, Lucky Eric, 33/1 Mayfair Tambourine, 40/1 Glorious Gin, Montrose Man, 50/1 Karahalla, Royal Band, 66/1 Tubby Nugget.
McCoy on a fav and you always know he gives it all.
4 under 16/1 should be the ones? But 2 mile 6 is along way 1.37 to place the McCoy mount
735 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Archie Boy, 11/4 Predateur, 100/30 Histoire De Moeurs, 10/1 Beherayn, 16/1 Knapp Bridge Boy, 33/1 Bold Policy.
Odds on under McCoy 1.33 to place
TENNIS
Andy Murray 1.24 to win 3-0 against a player he beat 6-0 6-0 last time they played
SHORTLIST
Murray 1.24 is certainly very enticing to win in 3 sets. Like shortie at footie, 1/50 odds mean he chould be untroubled throughout.
He's no Tiger Tim thank God and is world number 3.
215 BEVERLEY
Rock of love purely because of the trainer form in maidens and the fact that confidence in the market has been highly accurate for these Johnston 2 year olds. Again perfer to see Joe Fanning on board ( stable's number 1)
415 BEVERLEY - with the 2ndfav out, this 8 runner race is down to 7.
The fav remains and now with may rival out, should find it easier to beat 4 to place
Outsider only 16/1 indicates possible competitive event
322 last 3 races indicates decent enough progressive form
445 BEV - Aqwaas looks the default selection today at 1.09. Of interest is the 2nd fav Heliobar at 1.6 to place as a possible gamble
ONE A DAY
Go with Andy Murray I think today at 1.24 to win 3-0
I am away 25th June, back to see family .I don't get paid in July so live chat and blog may be intermittent during July
Andy Murray plays today and 1.24 for a 3 set whitewash looks very enticing for the world number 3
215 BEVERLEY
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Going French looks the pick of the weights assuming that a step up in distance will see him reproduce his debut form but a more certain stayer on breeding is ROCK OF LOVE, who may be able to improve on what he's achieved over sprint trips.[Steven Boow] |
You know by now it's good to stick with a trainer in a specific race when he's hot. Mark Johnston of course - Rock of Love is now odds on and Greg Fairley takes the ride. Problem is 2 strong market leaders and as we know they don't always finish 1 and 2 and maidens can bring one from the outsiders to place.
But I am taken by the fact this is MArk Johnston whose maiden excursions have been absolutely superb 1.38 to place and only 2 places
330 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Caribbean Coral, 100/30 Landucci, 4/1 Joss Stick, 9/2 Rockfield Lodge, 10/1 Arfinnit, 14/1 Supreme Speedster, 16/1 Nawaaff, 20/1 Easy Wonder, Place The Duchess.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The drop back in distance is a big issue with Landucci and preference is for CARIBBEAN CORAL, who only narrowly won one of these at Bath last time but travelled like much the best horse in the race. Joss Stick and Rockfield Lodge are live dangers, though.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones] |
4 under 10/1 (14/1 in the live market) could be the ones to focus on? 1.34 the fav to place
415 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Everymanforhimself, 7/2 Aegean Dancer, 5/1 Fol Hollow, Namir, 13/2 Discanti, 8/1 Bo McGinty, 12/1 Secret Asset, 16/1 Hypnosis.
Aegean Dancer is out which could make life easier for Every?
7 runners and 3 places 1.39 to place and 3 places
445 BEVERLEY
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AQWAAS sets a clear standard on her close second in a 1m Goodwood maiden on comeback last month and should be tough to beat. Helieorbea looks the main threat. He has something to find with the selection, but his debut form is working out really well.[David Moon] |
Default selection here? 1.09 to place 2nd fav 1.6 (illiquid market) but thee only horse under odds on in the place market and under 14/1 in the win market
515 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Starla Dancer, 11/4 Almuktahem, 7/2 Burns Night, 4/1 Cabernet Sauvignon, 11/2 Steel Trade, 50/1 Smitain.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Starla Dancer, Steel Trade and Cabernet Sauvignon all have solid form claims but have seen quite a bit of action and it may be worth giving another chance to the well-related ALMUKTAHEM, who suffered a setback when favourite last time but may be able to raise his game over this longer trip. The one to watch in the market is Burns Night who could improve significantly on his debut effor |
Money for a J0ohnston juvenile has proven a very effective winning system recently. Burns night is now fav here and 7/4 1.67 to place - illiquid market
630 NA
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Havenstone has the form and really ought to win but he has had a host of chances. MICK'S PROSPECT has looked better than a Welsh pointer this spring and could be the one to take advantag |
McCoy on a fav and you always know he gives it all.
4 under 16/1 should be the ones? But 2 mile 6 is along way 1.37 to place the McCoy mount
735 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Archie Boy, 11/4 Predateur, 100/30 Histoire De Moeurs, 10/1 Beherayn, 16/1 Knapp Bridge Boy, 33/1 Bold Policy.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Predateur has the ability to take this but is still proving costly to follow and the progressive ARCHIE BOY (nap) can successfully give the weight awa |
Odds on under McCoy 1.33 to place
TENNIS
Andy Murray 1.24 to win 3-0 against a player he beat 6-0 6-0 last time they played
SHORTLIST
Murray 1.24 is certainly very enticing to win in 3 sets. Like shortie at footie, 1/50 odds mean he chould be untroubled throughout.
He's no Tiger Tim thank God and is world number 3.
215 BEVERLEY
Rock of love purely because of the trainer form in maidens and the fact that confidence in the market has been highly accurate for these Johnston 2 year olds. Again perfer to see Joe Fanning on board ( stable's number 1)
415 BEVERLEY - with the 2ndfav out, this 8 runner race is down to 7.
The fav remains and now with may rival out, should find it easier to beat 4 to place
Outsider only 16/1 indicates possible competitive event
322 last 3 races indicates decent enough progressive form
445 BEV - Aqwaas looks the default selection today at 1.09. Of interest is the 2nd fav Heliobar at 1.6 to place as a possible gamble
ONE A DAY
Go with Andy Murray I think today at 1.24 to win 3-0
Head-to-head: Murray leads 3-0
2006 Newport Grass (O) QF Murray 60 60
2006 US Open Hard (O) R128 Murray 62 16 63 63
2007 AMS Miami Hard (O) R32 Murray 63 61
6-0, 6-0 last time on grass
Hard court lost a set which is a slight concern
THis should be easy enough for Andy Murray surely
23/6
Just a heads up. I am travelling on the 25th June back to Guernsey. I don't get paid in July as the bossman doesn't want a newsletter so I have to take an enforced unpaid month break. This means I am at the behest of my lovely folks and their broadband. If I can't get online throughout July, I can't do live chat.
That's the bottom line. So don't expect livechat every day in July. I will also be spending time with my neices and nephews who I havent seen for a while and also other family and friends so may not be available every afternoon. Still I will try to keep the blog goig because every day I do this, I learn!
That's the bottom line. So don't expect livechat every day in July. I will also be spending time with my neices and nephews who I havent seen for a while and also other family and friends so may not be available every afternoon. Still I will try to keep the blog goig because every day I do this, I learn!
Sunday, 21 June 2009
21/6
Those on live chat would have followed me with Pytheas yesterday - another excellent run from a Mark johnston juvenile.
Cosmopolitan won , and did you notice the 735 Haydock? down to 4 runners and still 3 places. Outstanding bet on the fav at 1.13 to not get beaten by 3 horses in a 4 horse race. The non runners were not apparent at time of writing yesterday -do watch out for these races.
Followers on live chat will have glimpsed Smoke and mirrors have an excellent day - got the 20/1 winner that beat jj the jet plane, followed by a 16/1 winner and a 14/1 winner and 14/1 2nd in the same race.
You'll get days like this with smoke and mirrors.
A good first day for the live chat and some went for over 1.5 goals in Spain's game which eventually came. I opted for a lay of South Africa, and a lay of New Zealand. The latter was always precarious at 0-0 and any other strikers with an ounce of ability could have won this game for either side with better finishing.
220 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Shiwawa, 5/1 Urban Tiger, 6/1 Sumak, 8/1 National Heritage, 9/1 Word Of Warning, 14/1 Ice Image, 25/1 Hunt Ball, 40/1 Freda´s Rose, 50/1 Endeavor, 66/1 Bed Fellow, 100/1 Abbey Express, Glengap, Mountskip, 150/1 Cabin Gate, 200/1 Whatevertheweather.
Price gapper here. Biggish field though and hurdles. Still, looks a 6 horse race unless there's any smoke/mirrors type signals lurking amongst the also rans at bigger prices 1.14 to place is pretty low for a big field novice hurdle
Urban Tiger placed 16 times from 32 runs!
225 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Boxing Day, 2/1 Montecchio, 5/1 Marfach, Palm Ridge, 10/1 Goldarover, 12/1 Todd´s Forge, 14/1 Sichuan Province, 20/1 Cementry Lane, She´s A Staker, 33/1 Sunday Driver.
O pointed out 2 Ballydoyle winners yesterday at Downroyal, and Boxing Day is now evens , has had 2 runs, and is likley to improve. 1.2 to place. Concern this is top heavy market and we have to hope Boxing day and Monticello fight it out
340 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Drumfire, 4/1 All The Aces, 5/1 Halicarnassus, 11/2 Furmigadelagiusta, 13/2 Fairmile, 8/1 Sugar Ray, 14/1 Zaham, 16/1 Unleashed.
hot jockey fresh from a 4 timer at Ayr with hot trainer -Johnston again.
8 down to 6 and 3 places
Still a listted race so all horses are handy enough 1.29 for Drumfire to place. Will he get beaten by 3 in this 50/50 race?
415 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Gold Blossom, 3/1 Cappagh Strand, 7/2 Nice Dream, 10/1 Iklwa, 12/1 Midsummers Day, 14/1 Four Kicks, Gothen Niece, 16/1 Annalast, 33/1 Zuton, 50/1 Bloomsday Babe, Four Seas.
Now odds on for Lordan/Wachman 1.17 to place - illiquid market
440 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Spiekeroog, 5/1 Shemoli, 11/2 Longboat Key, 13/2 Theola, 20/1 Riptide, 40/1 Sirjosh, 100/1 Antipodean.
Yes, again shortie in maiden based only on one run. Race worked out well though. Only 3 under 16/1 BUT 2 places so we have to be spot on 1.23 to place
450 HEX
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Dead Or Alive, 3/1 Mr Robert, 5/1 Come To The Party, 9/1 Iron Hague, 16/1 Got The Gift, Nastjir, 25/1 Butter, 33/1 Minstalad, 40/1 Corporation, 50/1 Scuzme, 66/1 Fettler, 100/1 The Masters Lesson.
"very much the one to beat" if as good over hurdles as chase fences 1.16 to place
The 2 confederations cup games don't really appeal but I would favour Brazil over aging and idea-less Italy. LAying Italy/Italy at 7 half time/full time is the same as a 1.16 bet
Egypt are odds on to beat the USA and with the Yanks having 2 games in succession with 10 men and looking leggy in their last match, the Egyptians would be favoured.
A lay of USA at 5 is the same as a 1.23 bet
Under 4.5 goals at 1.13 looks reasonable
SHORTLIST
225 GOWRAN
boxing day was shd shd 3rd last time and is well matched with market rival Montechio.
hint of improvement with each run for this Ballydoyle runner and could be good for a place at least here. Same could be said for Montechio too though.
Dutching the first 2 is a 1.18 shot.
1.2 and 1.25 to place. I would side with boxing Day here to continue the traditional improvement with running that is charaacteristic of Ballydoyle juveniles
340 PONTE - Drumfire has a " major chance" - 2nd fav is out, 6 runners - 3 places -1.29
NEGATIVE - class 1 listed means all horses are decent enough
440 PONTE - 7 runners, one at 66/1, one at 40/1, one at 33/1, one at 20/1 leaves 3 horses at 4/7, 7/2 and 5/1
The fav is strongly fancied by Spotlight 1.23 to place. It is hoped this is a 3 horse race and the race revolves only around those under 20/1
Laying Italy/Italy half time/full time at 1.16 eequivalent looks very enticing. Will Brazil lose the first half and lose in 90 minutes?
ONE A DAY
Probability wise the 340 Pontefract looks the place to go with Drumfire at 1.29 -another 50/50 race with 6 horses running for 3 places
2nd and 3rd betting forecast favourites are out and Drumfire was the original favourite for the Racing Post tissue with these 2 included, so my argument is that he is a stronger favourite with these near market rivals out?
"down in class and major chance" states Spotlight.
Concern is these are major stables represented 9as you'd expect in a class 1) but will Drumfire get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race?
You know by now mark Johnston's stable is in fine fettle and we have a jockey in Dazzler buoyed by his recent 4 timer at Ayr.
Lots of evidence to support place backing here.
My eye will be on the earlier races too incase market confidence makes the horses stronger candidates.
Cosmopolitan won , and did you notice the 735 Haydock? down to 4 runners and still 3 places. Outstanding bet on the fav at 1.13 to not get beaten by 3 horses in a 4 horse race. The non runners were not apparent at time of writing yesterday -do watch out for these races.
Followers on live chat will have glimpsed Smoke and mirrors have an excellent day - got the 20/1 winner that beat jj the jet plane, followed by a 16/1 winner and a 14/1 winner and 14/1 2nd in the same race.
You'll get days like this with smoke and mirrors.
A good first day for the live chat and some went for over 1.5 goals in Spain's game which eventually came. I opted for a lay of South Africa, and a lay of New Zealand. The latter was always precarious at 0-0 and any other strikers with an ounce of ability could have won this game for either side with better finishing.
220 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Shiwawa, 5/1 Urban Tiger, 6/1 Sumak, 8/1 National Heritage, 9/1 Word Of Warning, 14/1 Ice Image, 25/1 Hunt Ball, 40/1 Freda´s Rose, 50/1 Endeavor, 66/1 Bed Fellow, 100/1 Abbey Express, Glengap, Mountskip, 150/1 Cabin Gate, 200/1 Whatevertheweather.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be relatively straightforward for SHIWAWA (nap), representing an in-form yard that won this race in 2008. Urban Tiger and National Heritage can fight out the minor honours.[Stuart Redding] |
Price gapper here. Biggish field though and hurdles. Still, looks a 6 horse race unless there's any smoke/mirrors type signals lurking amongst the also rans at bigger prices 1.14 to place is pretty low for a big field novice hurdle
Urban Tiger placed 16 times from 32 runs!
225 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Boxing Day, 2/1 Montecchio, 5/1 Marfach, Palm Ridge, 10/1 Goldarover, 12/1 Todd´s Forge, 14/1 Sichuan Province, 20/1 Cementry Lane, She´s A Staker, 33/1 Sunday Driver.
O pointed out 2 Ballydoyle winners yesterday at Downroyal, and Boxing Day is now evens , has had 2 runs, and is likley to improve. 1.2 to place. Concern this is top heavy market and we have to hope Boxing day and Monticello fight it out
340 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Drumfire, 4/1 All The Aces, 5/1 Halicarnassus, 11/2 Furmigadelagiusta, 13/2 Fairmile, 8/1 Sugar Ray, 14/1 Zaham, 16/1 Unleashed.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With All The Aces having been kept away from fast ground this term and Halicarnassus having run at Royal Ascot on Friday, the door may be open for DRUMFIRE who ran so well last time in the Brigadier Gerard.[Richard Austen] |
hot jockey fresh from a 4 timer at Ayr with hot trainer -Johnston again.
8 down to 6 and 3 places
Still a listted race so all horses are handy enough 1.29 for Drumfire to place. Will he get beaten by 3 in this 50/50 race?
415 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Gold Blossom, 3/1 Cappagh Strand, 7/2 Nice Dream, 10/1 Iklwa, 12/1 Midsummers Day, 14/1 Four Kicks, Gothen Niece, 16/1 Annalast, 33/1 Zuton, 50/1 Bloomsday Babe, Four Seas.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GOLD BLOSSOM, whose half-sister Silk Blossom won the Lowther Stakes in 2006, will never get a better opportunity |
Now odds on for Lordan/Wachman 1.17 to place - illiquid market
440 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Spiekeroog, 5/1 Shemoli, 11/2 Longboat Key, 13/2 Theola, 20/1 Riptide, 40/1 Sirjosh, 100/1 Antipodean.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It might be a contest between Shemoli, Longboat Key and Theola for the places but, as far as winning is concerned, this race should be all about SPIEKEROOG.[Richard Austen] |
Yes, again shortie in maiden based only on one run. Race worked out well though. Only 3 under 16/1 BUT 2 places so we have to be spot on 1.23 to place
450 HEX
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Dead Or Alive, 3/1 Mr Robert, 5/1 Come To The Party, 9/1 Iron Hague, 16/1 Got The Gift, Nastjir, 25/1 Butter, 33/1 Minstalad, 40/1 Corporation, 50/1 Scuzme, 66/1 Fettler, 100/1 The Masters Lesson.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DEAD OR ALIVE has been making hay over fences recently and has another good chance on this switch back to hurdling. Mr Robert carried his head a bit high last time but still did the job well and looks the chief danger, followed by Come To The Party.[Richard Austen] |
"very much the one to beat" if as good over hurdles as chase fences 1.16 to place
The 2 confederations cup games don't really appeal but I would favour Brazil over aging and idea-less Italy. LAying Italy/Italy at 7 half time/full time is the same as a 1.16 bet
Egypt are odds on to beat the USA and with the Yanks having 2 games in succession with 10 men and looking leggy in their last match, the Egyptians would be favoured.
A lay of USA at 5 is the same as a 1.23 bet
Under 4.5 goals at 1.13 looks reasonable
SHORTLIST
225 GOWRAN
boxing day was shd shd 3rd last time and is well matched with market rival Montechio.
hint of improvement with each run for this Ballydoyle runner and could be good for a place at least here. Same could be said for Montechio too though.
Dutching the first 2 is a 1.18 shot.
1.2 and 1.25 to place. I would side with boxing Day here to continue the traditional improvement with running that is charaacteristic of Ballydoyle juveniles
340 PONTE - Drumfire has a " major chance" - 2nd fav is out, 6 runners - 3 places -1.29
NEGATIVE - class 1 listed means all horses are decent enough
440 PONTE - 7 runners, one at 66/1, one at 40/1, one at 33/1, one at 20/1 leaves 3 horses at 4/7, 7/2 and 5/1
The fav is strongly fancied by Spotlight 1.23 to place. It is hoped this is a 3 horse race and the race revolves only around those under 20/1
Laying Italy/Italy half time/full time at 1.16 eequivalent looks very enticing. Will Brazil lose the first half and lose in 90 minutes?
ONE A DAY
Probability wise the 340 Pontefract looks the place to go with Drumfire at 1.29 -another 50/50 race with 6 horses running for 3 places
2nd and 3rd betting forecast favourites are out and Drumfire was the original favourite for the Racing Post tissue with these 2 included, so my argument is that he is a stronger favourite with these near market rivals out?
"down in class and major chance" states Spotlight.
Concern is these are major stables represented 9as you'd expect in a class 1) but will Drumfire get beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race?
You know by now mark Johnston's stable is in fine fettle and we have a jockey in Dazzler buoyed by his recent 4 timer at Ayr.
Lots of evidence to support place backing here.
My eye will be on the earlier races too incase market confidence makes the horses stronger candidates.
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