31/3

You see why I go on about Aiden o'brien ! - George wins aat 5/1, Poet at 9/4 and the other 2nd and in heavy ground! - this augurs well for the O'Brien/Murtagh combination this Irish Flat season.
3 into 1's both won and the big priced top weight Nicky Tam was unplaced
Footy wise ,Chelsea won 1-0 for anyone who went for the correct score dutch - overs came in the Real match

210 lingfield
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Samuel Charles, 5/2 Climate, 6/1 Victor Trumper, 10/1 Golden Spectrum, Hansomelle, 12/1 Personify, 16/1 Bandits Pistol, 20/1 Cavallo Di Ferro, 25/1 Feelin Irie, 33/1 Valart, 50/1 Cumae .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many of these come here in any sort of form and despite their penalties, Climate and SAMUEL CHARLES look the pair to concentrate on. Marginal preference is for the latter, who is always a force to be reckoned with in plating compan

With Climate out, can we assume Samuel CHarles has got rid of his main rival? NOTE - this is a poor class of race!

410
Maslaha

Easy to back but shaped with plenty of promise on debut and confirmed that impression when facile winner over C&D last time; mark of 80 may not do her justice and both surprising and disappointing if there isn´t much more to come; stable going well and looks the one to beat.

Worth support albei at odds on - looks assured of a good run if Spotlight's confidence is to be taken onboard

SOUTHWELL

300
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Copperbottomed, 4/1 One Called Alice, 5/1 Our Sunnie, 10/1 Her Name Is Rio, Indecision .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Four of these meet on about the same terms as would have been the case in a handicap, the exception being Indecision, who has a bit to find. One Called Alice is a player if getting one of her better starts and able to hold a position down in trip but COPPERBOTTOMED is clearly the one to beat

"clearly the one to beat" - trigger words - again poor price but worthy of support

SOft ground at WIncanton

Again a poor day and we just have to remain patient while waitning for better opportunities

3into 1
2 surprising winners yesterday given the ground

300 Southwell - Copperbottomed



Nantes look backable at 2/1 against Troyes who got hammered by Le HAvre recently - NAntes last away game was a draw only because of a last minute equaliser

30/3

I did warn you about the claiming hurdle producing a surprise and in hindsight on a busy Saturday I could have been a bit more choosy. BRave prospector was highly disappointing. THe early 7/2 for Kandidate didn't last long as he was knocked into 9/4 and won well.
Multi tasker was unplaced but it was very interesting to see one £500 bet on the horse at the Sportinglife website - some kind of a run was expected that's for sure!
Dutch at NAd al sheeba broke even.CREACHADOIR unplaced as was Jalil in a race where Curlin was magnificent.
A poor day on the gee gees but footy was much better. For the adventurous few who went with Bolton I hope you used Betfair as 2-0 up against 10 men allowed for superb trading out DESPITE THE FINAL SCORE. This is the massive advantage of trading.
Elsewhere overs in MAn Utd, West Brom, wins for St Mirren half time/full time, lay of City came off, lay of West Ham came off, lay of the draw in Old firm and correct score 1-0 at a decent price despite the dutch
A few losers with HAmburg, the arse half time/full time bet and unders in the Derby match. Adebeyour didn't start so I didn't put him up in the to score market.

Again taken in by too many bets on a Saturday hence my words in the conclusion about being choosy.

I hope you saw yesterday why I don't like betting in soft ground as was the case, through the day, at a number of venues - ill discipline yesterday.

CURRAGH - HEAVY
Flat season kicks off with a debutant maiden in heavy ground in Ireland - I'll get me coat!
A layer's race if ever there was one!
The first crop of Aiden O'Brien horses show themselves this season in the 2nd race with Georgebernardshaw but at 3\1 in heavy ground in a 25 runner maiden he does not rate as a back bet today and may be too big for a lay bet. Despite the fact it's Aiden O'Brien, I would veer towards laying given the race type and field size and ground conditions

Aiden O'B rien has 2 in the 355 with the fav Savethissance for me under number one jockey Jonny Murtagh and Ice Queen at 25/1 under Jamie Heffernan. I will chance Ice Queen at projected 25/1 each way given the heavy ground and the trainer.

ANother runner, Poet , is provisional favourite in the last race of the day where the heavy ground will have got worse.

So it's just Ice queen at 25/1 for me today in the hope heavy ground will produce a shock. I'm not expecting a return though so stakes will be kept to a minimum

HEXHAM - heavy

I must learn from yesterday and my insistance on betting in soft ground and really dismiss Hexham from a backer's perspective
A day for concerted laying of the short priced favourites here in heavy ground, with preference for the extendeddistances and monitoring in running

Soft ground at the other venues leaves me with no real bets at all today save the one speculative one on Ice Queen at the Curragh

3 int0 1

425 Hexham - Hush tiger
230 Kempton - Leading attraction

You've already read my thoughts regarding ground conditions but this mechanical system doesn't account for them

TOP WEIGHTS

Far too busy yesterday to have included them but will note them for the record today
240 HEXHAM - Nicky Tam



FOOTY
Chelsea v Boro the standout today and again CHelsea do not lose at home (as was seen in the Arsenal game last week even when they went a goal down). At 15, Boro are unlayable and at 1.3 Chelsea are not backable so what way in?
I might have a bit of fun with a mug punter scorecast on Drogba 1-0 at 23, Drogba 2-0 at 23, Drogba 2-1 at 36. Highly speculative indeed.

THe over 2.5 goals could have been contemplated but I have a worry this mught be a 2-0 1-1 or 1-0 tight game. As I've said before Boro are like Liverpool were as betting propositions - ie unreliable and difficult to read.

Draw/Chelsea at 4.8 appeals although I find it difficult to get an angle in

Similar with Liverpool v Everton. General bias toward the home side?

Barcelona cocked up yesterday after being 2-0 up BUT can Real take advantage against Sevilla at home tonight. 8/11 tells you it'll be very difficult. This should be an over 2.5 goal game (to trade as usual) with 2 attack minded teams. A neutral bet is perhaps the best one with results fluctuating in the head to heads.

Today I will pretty much write off as a betting day I think - all the football opportunities came in one burst yesterday and if there's no real betting opportunities then we can be selective and have a rest. Similarly with heavy and soft ground prevailing in all races it's a case of leave alone ( as I should have done yesterday) bar Ice QUeen at 25/1 incase heavy ground messes with the market leaders.

29/3

Nice win for Mary Josephine at Dundalk, Prince Erik for the Weld/Smullen combo (watch out for them on fancied horses this flat season in Ireland), Indian Skipper, Music Box Express. They all popped in at decent prices. Not now lewis unplaced, and Tvara did nothing in a 0-45 classified stakes - poor horses where market moves are perhaps not to be taken on trust.

3 into 1 - a 2nd and a win - ok.

Le Havre did the business at a nice 11/10 away from home 3-1 capping off an excellent day. THis is a tactic you can use - look at teams playing each other and check out how they have performed, say, against the same opponents in previous matches. It may give a clue as to what is expected and is a kind of form analysis for football.

Bookie benefit today as usual on a Saturday

BANGOR
230
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Delightfully, 5/2 Just Beware, 6/1 Rosie´s Glory, 14/1 Queenlaya, 33/1 Miss Champagne, Wensleydale Web, 50/1 Florida Diamond .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If ex-French DELIGHTFULLY can't make short work of these modest rivals she's not going to have much of a future as a hurdler.[DH] it's always interesting when it seems that a horse must win really to continue in the hurdling game and if you are taken by Spotlight, then that's the case for Delightfully. BUT this is a claiming hurdle- I will be speculative as usual and a straight £10 level stakes on the front 2 produces a nice payout on Just Beware and a £2 loss on Delightfully. CAUTION - as a claiming hurdle we may have a surprise but I feel this is worth a punt. 1.76 on Delightfully - £14, and £10 on Just beware at current 3.5 will produce a break even and not a loss on Delightfully There are a couple of perceived 2 horse races in the 300 and 545 and if you're convinced that ,yes, this should involve the front 2, then play around as I did in the above example and select one to chose with perhaps a break even /slight loss on the other. With 3 the place in the 300 race, we will get unnaturally inflated odds for the other horses -perhaps place only dutching on Island Key and Never Ask at 3.25 and 3.65 -break even if one places - if something happens and both place, it's a nice pay out DONCASTER 235 BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Brave Prospector, 11/1 Game Hunt, Moothir, 12/1 Carpe Diem, Louis Seffens, Savannah Poppy, 14/1 Harrison George, 20/1 Centenerola, 33/1 Bilboa, Spirit Of A Nation, 100/1 Grey Command, Your Golf Travel . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BRAVE PROSPECTOR has to win this if he's to justify entries in the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas and his soft-ground Group 3 fourth last year sets a good standard for the newcomers to aim at Significant price gapper - top RPR - top topspeed - postdata selection - 12 from 14 tips - looks solid - takes a drop in class NEGATIVES - 154 day absence - untried at the course - Another horse who MUST win (like Delightfully earlier) . A poor price but worthy of support, particularly to follow in running and lay off in increments. High class racing at Kempton and it is the Class 1 listed race I'll focus on 345 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kandidate, 11/4 Diamond Tycoon, 4/1 Great Hawk, 6/1 Spice Route, 8/1 Grand Passion, 10/1 Illustrious Blue, 16/1 Pur Sucre, 50/1 Impeller . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Last spring Diamond Tycoon looked one of the most fascinating horses in training and it will be interesting to see if he can pick up the threads after his absence, but his stamina for today's trip has to be taken on trust and preference is for the rock-solid credentials of KANDIDATE As usual, the betting forecast for higher quality events should be more accurate . We have an each way angle with the straight 8 and Diamond Tycoon at 2/1 in the early price market. Of more interest is the "rock solid credentails" of Kandidate - 7/2 is an enticing price and an each way prospect for me. As ever, none of the horses can be readily dismissed given the quality of the race. Kandidate Battle-hardened veteran who has won both his starts here and suggested he was as good as ever when runner-up in Group 3 in Dubai on return last month; down to Listed level for first time since 2006 and likely to prove tough nut to crack for in-form yard. 415 BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Gone Hunting, 7/2 Sub Prime, 4/1 Asaint Needs Brass, 8/1 Imperial Skylight, 10/1 Grand Honour, Old Father Zieten, 14/1 Comanche Trail, Dr Wintringham, 16/1 Buckle Up, 20/1 Multi Tasker . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting should provide a few clues to the ability of these ten newcomers. Bill Turner proved once again his talent for readying cheaply bought newcomers when Sally's Dilemma won the Brocklesby and he rates GONE HUNTING her equal. The low draw is not ideal but she is likely to know her job better than most and is preferred to Sub Prime.[FC] Multi tasker currently 10/1 in a debutant maiden whose betting market will tell all. Again, this 10/1 has to be replicated at the off. If the price drifts then it's a no bet. One non runner at a potential 10/1 should not be the cause of this price cut for Multi tasker NAD AL SHEEBA A cracking card with Curlin the stand out here 140 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Blackat Blackitten, 11/4 Diamond Stripes, Elusive Warning, 12/1 Baharah, Golden Arrow, 20/1 Barcola, 33/1 Aleutian, Green Coast, Rosberg, Zakocity, 40/1 Halkin, 50/1 Brave Tin Soldier, 66/1 Jet Express, Watch What Happens, 100/1 Don Renato . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Saeed Bin Suroor has won this six times since 1996 and he has a strong hand with progressive ELUSIVE WARNING and Blackat Blackitten. The pair finished first and second in the Burj Nahaar over C&D last time and it's the strong-travelling Elusive Warning, who had his first run over this trip that day and is the most unexposed runner in the field, that is fancied to confirm placings. The other danger in a race lacking strength in depth is Diamond Stripes, who drops in trip but looks sure to go well on his UAE debut if handling this surface 3 horse race in prospect? Again I can level stakes dutch the front 3 and reduce the stake on Diamond stripes to leave a break even on that one with profit on the Godolphin pair Blackcat and Elusive 355 BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Literato, 9/2 Creachadoir, Darjina, 10/1 Admire Aura, Vodka, 12/1 Finsceal Beo, 14/1 Floral Pegasus, Linngari, 16/1 Archipenko, Bullish Luck, 20/1 Majestic Roi, 25/1 Niconero, 33/1 Lord Admiral, Notional, Seachange, 50/1 Jay Peg. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tremendous race in prospect and, as has been the main theme at this Carnival, Saeed Bin Suroor has a strong hand with Literato and CREACHADOIR. Frankie Dettori rides the former but, as he does seem a better horse with give in the ground, preference is for his stablemate, who is well suited by a sound surface. He turned in a career-best effort on only his third run for the yard when nailed by the much improved Good Ba Ba in the Hong Kong Mile, in which he had Darjina (worth a try over this trip) and Floral Pegasus (solid each-way shot) just behind and, as a half-brother to Arc runner-up Youmzain, he should be equally effective over this trip. Japan took this last year with Admire Moon and Admire Aura and Vodka are other each-way options to consider CREACHADOIR each way at 5/1 with McEvoy on board may give a good account in this highly competitive race 530 BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Curlin, 7/1 Jalil, 12/1 Asiatic Boy, 14/1 Happy Boy, Vermilion, 20/1 Premium Tap, 25/1 A P Arrow, 33/1 Kocab, 40/1 Gloria De Campeao, 50/1 Lucky Find, Well Armed, 66/1 Great Hunter, 100/1 Sway Yed. Wide draw a concern for Curlin? Hmmm could this open up an each way candidate. A talking horse has been Jalil, with some good articles on the horse in the Racing post this week. Soft ground at Newbury 355 BETTING FORECAST: Evs Crescent Island, 4/1 Quizzene, 5/1 First Point, Psychiatrist, 20/1 Red Admiral, 25/1 Mistress To No One, 50/1 Mix N Match, 100/1 Glowing Dawn, 200/1 Seahorse Point , SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The three form principals have a point to prove after failing to build on a promising first try over hurdles so not a race that can be approached with much confidence. Course winner CRESCENT ISLAND's ability to handle the ground will stand him in good stead 4 horse race - each way angle? Psychiatrist each way may give us a run if soft ground affects the fav's performance 350 STRATFORD A very tight market indeed here, 7 horses between 6 and 8 ! I'll ignore the favs and take a lucky dip on Double Ells each way. 3 into 1 420 Stratofrd Tacinja 720 Wolves Brave hawk FOOTY A huge number of very important games this afternoon. AND remember the questions - any important games up coming which may affect performance today - hmmm - how about the Champions LEague mid week for Man Utd and Arsenal in particular. If you are taken by the influence mid week Champions League games may have on today's performances then speculative lays of short priced favs or backing Bolton and Aston Villa at big odds MIGHT pay off old Firm derby at 1230 kicks off the day RAngers have scored 2 or more in their last 6 matches while Celtic have struggled to keep clean sheets and I get the feeling the momentum is with the Rangers side. home advantage could be crucial? I was going to look at the bookings market BUT it's heavy odds on - doh! Correct score 0-0 (break even), 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 looks worth chancing I feel. I can't see Rangers not scoring and don't think Celtic can get 2 goals. A bit speculative but a repeat of 3-0 will be a cracker Laying the draw at 3.5 may be a good way in with trading in mind. This is a must win for both sides. Hamburg at 2.1 half time/full time - a good enhanced odds bet? I'll lay MAn City away to Brum today as i think Birmingham are strong at home and have more to play for than City whose season has petered out a bit Bolton against top 4 sides have lost by 2 clear goals recently - is this an angle in? Arsenal - 4 draws and a loss is simply NOT good enough for a team who were supposed to be challenging for the Premiership. Which Arsenal will turn up? - the Champions LEague team or the stuttering permiership side? Arsenal have the upper hand in head to heads. Is it time for Adebayour to return to goal scoring form - 2.9 is a decent enough price. Arse/Arse ; Draw/Arse and Draw/Bolton look appealing as a dutch for the half time/full time results, break even on Arsenal/Arsenal Under 2.5 goals Derby v Fulham? Worth trading if the match is in running - distinct improvement from Derby and a Fulham team who are not that free scoring I'll lay West Ham away to Sunderland here today - the Hammers have nothing to play for while Sunderland simply must keep their excellent home record. West brom over 2.5 goals 1/3 at home - the top scorers in the Championship should add to the tally today Gretna sacked 8 players mid week and St Mirren are not normally betting propositions - 1.87 half time/full time St Mirren? St Mirren are hardly free scoring so, despite Getna's turmoil there is an element of speculation about the halftime/full time but the odds are decent enough Over 2.5 goals in the Man Utd game may enhance the odds. Again it's tradeable and bumps up the 2/7 about United CONCLUSION - far far too many bets today so i will draw up a shortlist of the ones I feel have the potential to return more confidently

28/3

Well we saw the value of the neutral bet yesterday in the footy - 2-2 - went like a dream - Droylsden scored 1st and Aldershot did as I hoped and responded only for Droylseden to score again - over 2.5 goals NO SWEAT - far better than 1.43 about Aldershot in the match odds - lower league games can be so unpredictable - this was bottom against top!

I was so near to getting Companero beaten by Spitfire Sortie - down to 1.25 in running! - would have been a nice payout!
Any each way speculators would have been rewarded by keepthedreamalive in a race which should have involved the front 2 - a 7 runner race means we were taking a little bit of a risk with only 2 the place but the horse consented to win!

This horse game defies logic sometimes - there am I thinking the handicap topweight system is potentially a good lay system when the 2 big prices yesterday came 2nd each at good each way odds, this follows to 5/1 + winners for the top weights (5lbs or more) - still they lost albeit at not really layable odds

No real chance with another 3 into 1 hunter chase selection who ,guess what ,lost again! These hunter chases really do provide good lay opportunities and gathering more evidence, such as the time off track for this one and we have a far more likely lay than back at the prices.

3 into 1 is mechanical and perhaps a look through all selections and the race types may provide a pattern for me for this still profitable system (not level stakes though)

As already mentioned, odds on selections are running at aa double figure odds level stakes loss for this system and I do keep track of results for evens to 3/1 ( some 13 points profit to level stakes) and all prices separately
DUNDALK
720
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Zars Gold, 7/2 Mary Josephine, 4/1 Ashka, 5/1 Leo´s Pride, 8/1 Golden Tokyo, 10/1 Dawn Eclipse, 12/1 Evita Evita, Read The Script, Salamis, 14/1 He´s Cool, 20/1 Blue Turk, Torina, 25/1 Insomnitas, Tiger Abby,

Fav has a high draw on Ireland's all weather over 7 furlongs - enough for me to take it on? Mary Josephine has been placed on all outings and, if at an each way price (4/1 or higher) can be backed to worry Zars Gold whose draw I hope will be the hindrance

910
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Kempes, 2/1 Prince Erik, 10/1 Akadyr, 12/1 Charlies First, Cloone River, 16/1 Nora Chrissie, 20/1 Alfredian Park, Amarjit, Charlemagne, 25/1 Bankalan, 33/1 Gulladoo Gold, 50/1 Ektishaaf.

THese markets are unformed on BEtfair but I will agree with the synopsis that this should be between Kempes and Prince Erik. The latter has the solid Weld/Smullen partnership and the greater odds at time of writing and ,if the prices,once formed on BEtfair, allow, I will load profit on Prince Erik and break even/slight loss on Kempes - Big price gap to the 3rd horse

KEMPTON

720
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Apache Dawn, 7/2 Dushstorm, 4/1 Not Now Lewis, 8/1 Victor Trumper, 12/1 Bed Fellow, Cactus King, Film Queen, 14/1 Shouldntbethere, 16/1 Barry Island .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary claimer that could see NOT NOW LEWIS make a mockery of the official figures in current progressive form over a C&D that brings the best out of him.[BDO]

A 3 horse race? - Victor Trumper the spoiler? Even though not each way price (ideal each way price) Not now lewis looks a big positive from Spotlight and is worth support -perhaps a break even? - £10 on the place for example at 1.55 returns £5.50 (commission not withstanding) - put that £5.50 on the win at 4.6 and hope the horse places at least

920
ETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Straight Face, 11/4 Prince Valentine, 100/30 Suhayl Star, 12/1 Tvara, 14/1 Only If I Laugh, 20/1 A Teen, Cyfrwys, Doctor Ned, Northstar Express, Raise Again, 25/1 Mtoto Girl, 33/1 Jabraan, 50/1 Canary Girl, 100/1 Pajada.

It looked like a 3 horse race but why is Tvara 5.4 on BEtfair and 4/1 in the morning prices - yes we have the whole day to wait, but worth each way support if remaining around 4/1 -a significant market move in a lowly classified stakes race?

LINGFIELD
200

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Gulch´s Rose, 3/1 Nightjar, 4/1 Blur, 5/1 Riqaab, 10/1 Indian Skipper, 20/1 Thankuforthemusic, 25/1 Buck Cannon, 33/1 Arniecoco, 66/1 Wicksy Creek, 100/1 Malt Empress, Too Much To Do.

Early season maiden with a number of newcomers - looks a 3 horse race but Indian star sneaks in with a slight price drop to 6.8 on betfair - worthy of each way support albeit none too confident given the race type

WOLVES
220
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Avontuur, Compton Classic, 5/1 Green Pirate, Music Box Express, 6/1 Wicked Uncle, 8/1 Hamaasy, 10/1 Marko Jadeo, 12/1 Mr Rev .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Green Pirate should be staying on here if they go a decent pace and he looks the type his new stable will do well with. Avontuur is another possible, but COMPTON CLASSIC looks to have a fair bit in his favour this time and can return to winning ways

Incredibly tight price market with Betfair prices 6,6,7.2, 5.4, 7.6, 8.2, 17, 19
immediately we can dutch 5 at least if including the 5.4 horse but I will speculate given the bookies seemingly can't split them and go with Music Box express at 8.2 on betfair - again each way

3 into 1

230 Lingfield	Danetime lord
325 Wolves	Dhhamaan

HANDICAP TOP WEIGHTS

240 Newbury	My immortal	5lbs	20 in win market
425 Newbury	Kings revenge	5lbs	6.4 win 2.4 place

FOOTY
Le HAvre away to Amiens and there is a form line through Boulogne -sur -mer - Le HAvre were 1/3 on to beat them and they did 2-0. Boulogne sur mer beat Amiens 2-1

11/10 is good enough for Le Havre tonight away from home 5 from 6 wins latest - only defeat to fellow table toppers Troyes - more importantly away form looks solid.

26/3

Psycho was a huge disappointment and perhaps the 15 runner handicap was too competitive as was the belief that with better riding he would win here.

Pentasilea placed for each way backers - Dansimar imperious as the price suggested but we got effectively a free bet against the fav. Misbehaviour won against a 3 onto 1 selection -a case of seconditis there yesterday which was most frustratiing after a good 11/4 Cleymor House win
As the price move suggested Highglen lost.

Paradigm shift 12/1 in the morning BUT 20/1 at the off thus disqualifying the horse for the purposes of the 16/1 system .


John Forbes won at 4/1 -a loser for the lay system I am monitoring. As said before, I am looking at the performance of those priced 3/1 and less, and thought about widening the net to 5/1 SP to get more qualifiers but 2 winners already do not augur well for the 5/1 price banded selections - this is very much in the monitoring phase

4 2nds I believe for the 3 into 1 - again cursed by perceived 2 horse races

Mug punter acca blown by England's draw but worth a punt. Enhanced odds of 1.67 for a 1/100 odds team came in really well in Germany's 6-0 demolition job of Luxembourg - it's worth speculating isn't it rather than dismissing any involvement in a game where the favs are 1.03 to win on Betfair.


KEMPTON
210
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Greenbridge, 5/4 Procas De Thaix, 9/1 Quillan Hill, 20/1 Uncle Eli, 33/1 Launde, 40/1 Wiesenfurst, 50/1 Lydlinch, 100/1 Foxy Bob, Tanners Den .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Greenbridge won by a wide margin at Doncaster and gets in without a penalty but will have his work cut out to beat PROCAS DE THAIX if Nicky Henderson's gelding is back in the form which saw him run Theatre Girl close at Wincanton

5/4 the field each of 2 - currently 2.36 and 2.32 - level stakes leaves only very small profits. Ratio of £13 on procas and £7 on Greenbridge loads profit on Procas and leaves a marginal loss on Greenbridge.

Each way backers will be afforded enhanced odds given the perceived 2 horse race. Uncle Eli and Launde in the absence of Quillan Hill are the obvious contenders - backing both each way may be an option should one of the market leaders consent NOT to run to its pricing.

315
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Mount Oscar, 100/30 Quickbeam, 7/2 Soixante, 4/1 Orphelin Collonges, 12/1 Fix The Rib, 25/1 Paradise Regained, The Good Guy, The Hudnalls, 33/1 Major Upset, R´Cam, 66/1 Estrica, 100/1 Flanagans Choice, 200/1 Another Conker .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOUNT OSCAR (nap), not discredited under conditions which possibly placed too much emphasis on speed in a competitive handicap last time, must be hard to beat if he is in anything like the form he showed in the first half of the season. Quickbeam could give him most to do Trigger words " must be hard to beat...if" and in Spotlight "Looked as though he was going places before Christmas, scoring in good style over C&D; reportedly unsuited by left-handed tracks when pulled up next twice and shaped a bit more encouragingly last time when there may have been too much emphasis on speed; should be hard to beat if anywhere near his best." IS there anything to back up this optimism? - form of last 3 runs is bad BUT was in class 1 and class 2 - this is class 4 where form figures are far more encouraging. - course and distance winner - fresh - 38 days since last run - top RPR, top topspeed - postdata selection - familiar jockey in Joe Tizzard - NEGATIVES - 11/4 for a good thing is a suspiciously big price. The market is very condensed at the head - Betfair shows 3.75, 3.95, 3.95 The front 3 can be backed if prices remain 3.7, 3.95 and 3.95 with a ratio of £10, £6, £6 producing a profit on Mount Oscar and £1.50 profit on the 2 near market rivals Quickbeam and Soixante - the "must be hard to beat" leans me towards piling the profits on Mount oscar BUT the condensed prices mean I cannot dismiss the 2 other horses. 2 mile 5 is perhaps not an ideal distance either. For those with faith in Spotlight and if you can dismiss the "if", then 11/4 is a good price for Mount Oscar standalone - 1.57 to place and 3.7 to win means you could create a break even bet by backing the horse in the place only market and then backing the horse in the win only market with the potential WINNINGS from the place only bet 530 BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 You Do The Math, 5/1 Jurado Express, 9/1 Silver Dollars, 12/1 Shareef, 16/1 Urban Rebel, 20/1 Polar Scout, 25/1 Little Rocker, 33/1 Gulabill, Young Tot . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An obvious opportunity for YOU DO THE MATH to follow up his Sandown win. Jurado Express is a threat on his best form but looks a two-miler pure and simple and the relatively unexposed Silver Dollars may prove second bes Another "should be hard to beat" if we look at Spotlight - and a potential price gapper were it not for the fact this is a hunters chase with Mr Horton in the saddle - who he? SOUTHWELL 250 BETTING FORECAST: Evs Fire Up The Band, 6/4 Savile´s Delight, 6/1 Guto, 20/1 Regal Royale . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A conundrum here with Savile's Delight being proven under the conditions and representing solid form in this grade, but FIRE UP THE BAND has far more ability than most who run in this company. Given he can go well fresh, the latter gets the nod. I will chance the reverse forecast here - on betfair - 1-4 is 3.25 and 4-1 is 2.74 - dutchable to level stakes. Both horses can be backed to level stakes with a greater profit on Fire up the band HANDICAP TOP WEIGHTS with 5lbs or more than 2nd highest weight 3/1 and lower bookmaker price 325 Southwell - Came Back - currently 17/10 650 Wolves - Blackheath - currently 5/2 5/1 and lower 230 Newcastle - Bonny Rock - currently 9/2 305 NEwcastle - Lindsay - currently 5/1 Would be interesting to see how these perform as lays -if at all!

3 into 1 4 2nds I think yesterday and a winner at 11/4 -very frustrating 325 Southwell Came back 530 Kempton You do the math 920 Wolves Distant Sun

FOOTY
As the mug punter said yesterday only a crazy fool get involved in under 21's! and so it is with friendlies.!
There was I thinking I'd found a good bookings points bet for today in the England friendly and lo and behold the bet I want (5 points or under) is at 1.43! - D'oh!

Argies are at evens away to Egypt, and if fielding a full squad ,should give a good account against the African Nation hot pots.
Brazil are layable against Sweden tonight in what might be a tight early game. If 0-0 for an extended period, hopefully the Brazil odds will lengthen sufficiently to allow a free trade bet? If Sweden score first of course, it will be ideal

Friendlies mean no bet really for me - I suppose under 2.5 goals in the England match stands out as a good trade for the first half

25/3

Quartano was a good lay - we built up a case for laying and it proved correct. The clues were all there for all to see, as, I suppose was Caribbean Sunset, 176 day absence, early season maiden, big field. Well both Montevideo and Ellway propsect placed so whoever you decided on came in and around evens to place.

MAgnifico was the most interesting case yesterday. I mentioned this looked like a stable gamble last time. The betting forecaster obviously paid too much attention to the win last time, after pulling up twice and unseating in his last 3 then bolting home at , erm, 14/1!. We were, indeed, a race too late! A a mechanical 3 into 1 system bet, we wouldn't normally analyse selections but it proved a worthwhile exercise .

FAIRYHOUSE

350
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Psycho, 8/1 Save The Bacon, 10/1 Definate Spectacle, Fen Game, Major Sensation, Roman Villa, The Last Hurrah, 12/1 Brave Right, Jaamid, Pom Flyer, 14/1 Alabama Banjo, Cloone Rocket, Ri Na Deise, Vaqueras, Viso.

Hark back to Cheltenham and Carberry's ill judged ride on Psycho who should have won as he liked but was left with far too much to do. Recompense today in this 15 runner handicap? Worth a shot at odds on. Has the look of a potential price gapper but Irish racing don't provide postdata etc

FONTWELL
220
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Dansimar, 5/1 Pentasilea, 7/1 Aya, 14/1 Markila, 16/1 Happily Ever After, 20/1 Twice Charmed, 25/1 Flamehairtemptress, 100/1 Another Storm, Dareyna, Quaystone Lady .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to see past DANSIMAR, who has nothing to fear from Pentasilea on their recent Chepstow encounter.

Pentasilea each way is the obvious contender against Dansimar

320
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 White On Black, 3/1 Highglen, 4/1 Misbehaviour, 10/1 Honduras, Royal Prodigy, 12/1 Tashkandi, 14/1 The Preacher, 66/1 Stroppi Poppi .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WHITE ON BLACK likes these sharper tracks and he's a safer bet than Highglen, who has questions to answer on his debut for Evan Williams. Misbehaviour is the other with decent credentials.[AWJ]

The straight 8 always worth looking at from an each way perspective
Again we have 3 tiers
TIER 1 - White, Highglen, Misbehaviour
TIER 2 - Honduras, Royal, Tash, The Preacher
TIER 3 - Stroppi Roppi

Only one perceived outsider and 6 lively each way contenders. Misbehaviour is the obvious contender for each way backers, but the more speculative will look to tier 2 and Royal Prodigy, now 7/1 early prices. Note Highglen now 13/2 - has the betting forecaster misread this one or is it a sign it's not Highglen's day?

500
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 River Beauty, 7/4 Ashleys Poppy, 5/1 Lennox Gardens, 15/2 Bristol Delauriere, 20/1 Paradigm Shift, 33/1 Murphy´s Mate, 50/1 Smart N Sharp .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASHLEYS POPPY is going the right way and likely to give it a good go from the front if handling this different surface. River Beauty is the one she has to beat.[AWJ]

Why is Paradigm shift 12/1 early prices? A debutant in a bumper - significant?

510 SEDGEFIELD
John Forbes is 6lbs higher than any other horse qualifying it for my lay system I am monitoring. Needs to be 5/1 SP or lower (regardless of Betfair price)

3 into 1

2 non runners yesterday with Amorleigh the only winner. I mentioned Magnifico's chances. Autograph was beaten by 2nd and 3rd. Lady Pilot fell when in with a clear chance of winning - that's jumps racing. I'll be updating my results soon on this to see if the 50% strike rate continues and the staking plans prove still effective. Level stakes don't make a profit but 4 other staking plans do - it's all down to the strike rate regardless of prices

250 Fontwell	Cleymor House
300 Sedgefield	Turbo shandy
320 Fontwell	White on Black
430 Fontwell	Maximix
500 Fontwell	River Beauty
520 Pontefract	Riguez dancer

Riguez dancer appears in an apprentice ridden race and after the debacle of the last one I got involved in, I cannot be confident in these non professional jockeys. Turbo Shandy and River BEauty appear in perceived 2 horse races, the latter in a bumper. Cleymore House is looking for the 4 timer

FOOTY

I heard an interesting conversation re friendlies and the advice given was to go low on bookings because refs normally don't book even if, in a competitive game, it is a definite yellow - one to bear in mind with England v France

We have a 1/100 shot in German under 21's v Luxembourg. Now this screams out "enhanced odds bet" surely!. The best I can come up win is over 4.5 goals at 1.67. In a very illiquid market (BEWARE!) any unquoted score is around 1.42 , which far exceeds the 1.03 on offer in the match odds market.

I reiterate this is a not very liquid market so prices being put up for backers are NOT necessarily the correct market prices. (on BEtfair anyway)

1.03 is, of course ,ideal lay material - £100 bet will cost £3 liability and you never know!

MUG PUNTER ACCA

1	Italy U20 v Austria U20 (Backing Italy U20 @ 1.44)
2	Azerbaijan U21 v Italy U21 (Backing Italy U21 @ 1.09)
3	England U21 v Poland U21 (Backing England U21 @ 1.27)
4	Germany U21 v Luxembourg U21 (Backing Germany U21 @ 1.03)
5	Spain U21 v Kazakhstan U21 (Backing Spain U21 @ 1.08)

The big question mark will be concerning the under 20's Italy side, but at 1.44 they certainly bump up the odds.
Under 21's betting is for the fool hardy or the MUG PUNTER, which I am and odds of 2.22 are too hard to resist!

24/3

Barraland's market move worked as he came in. Soufleur's price moved to 5/1 and he was oh so close to coming in. When at the bookies, any 5/1 or higher should be treated, ideally, as an each way bet -it comes 2nd, we get stakes back. On Betfair, if it's place only price is 2.00 or bigger we can back for the win and place. The horse places and we get our stakes back.

Relative Hero lost, The Ring lost - 2 more lays for the system .History maker unpalced -maybe something to look at for lays at prices too big to lay in the win only market.

Couple of winners for 3 into 1 keeps strike rate up.

With the footy, the importance of trading showed itself again. Lay Celtic at 1.13. They reached 1.24 before scoring. By laying for £100 and backing at 1.24 for £100 resulted in a free £11 bet on Celtic - imaginative trading! So Man Utd scored 3 - under 2.5 goals didn't come in then? NO 1.78 pre match -down to 1.35 and lower in running - that's a .43 point profit trading. Wes Brown decided to score first - the bar steward!

Again the unders came in the Arsenal match - 58th minute first goal gives ample time to trade out. Taking the fact that Chelsea don't lose at home as a truism, who had the foresight to lay Arsenal after they scored first? It didn't matter anyway as the lay came in. Correct score didn't come in alas - I had enough leighway to cover the 2-1 which was frustrating and with Chelsea not losing at home, surely this should have been included in calculations perhaps at the expense of the Arsenal 1-0. What the friar tuck is Sagna doing scoring first! Again scuppered the speculative big odds bets on cole and LAmpard

Barca lay went south 1.29 - no harm done, but with Valladolid equalising there was a window to neutralise the bet.

CHEPSTOW -SOFT

A feeling today that the weather is going to mean few opportunities
225
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Quartano, 100/30 Schiehallion, 5/1 I Hear A Symphony, 13/2 The Jazz Musician, 11/1 High Standard, Quillygham, 14/1 Could Be Alright, 25/1 Vilcabamba, 28/1 Brayford Lad, 40/1 Yours Forever, 50/1 Dynamic Leap, Prince Emmanuel, 66/1 Rodway Lady, 80/1 Whitewater Dash, 100/1 Colorado Storm, Saddler George .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An above-average maiden hurdle, several having shown more than enough to win a race of this type. Schiehallion can be expected to put up another good effort from the front after only just failing at Sandown last time but preference is for QUARTANO (nap), whose form here and at Kempton later in February clearly sets the standard. Course form is always a notable plus here. I Hear A Symphony is best of the rest

Quartano looks worth laying to monitor in running here - big field - maiden hurdle - 2 horses at 7/2 and 4/1 are close enough to be good enough rivals. Only problem is AP McCoy on Quartano. Soft ground will hopefully play into the layer's hand

410 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Carribean Sunset, 6/1 Amaranda, 7/1 Temecula, 8/1 Suantrai, 12/1 Cathrine De Medici, Cullenstownstrand, Marinello, 14/1 Alliance, Valentine Hill, 16/1 Miranda´s Girl, 20/1 Flying Rouvres, 25/1 Catch Kally, Dawdens Delight, Miss Cinderella, Red Puma, So Much Commotion.
Possible price gapper - concern over the ground conditions and race size - Weld/Smullen combo on Caribbean Sunset makes some appeal though but this is an early season maiden -176 days since the horse last ran

HUNTINGDON
245
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Autograph, 100/30 Ellway Prospect, 7/2 Montevideo, 16/1 Ballyboley, 66/1 Pacha Noir .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AUTOGRAPH made quite a promising chasing debut and has an obvious chance for her in-form yard. Ellway Prospect is expected to give her most to do.[FC]

I can approach this race by looking at who will fill the 2nd place - we have a chocie between Ellway PRospect and Montevideo, 1.85 and 2.36 - it looks a match up, and without pouring over the form, is a simple choice - hopefully I'll get it right. Follow Spotlight? Ellway Prospect? to place?

PLUMPTON
340

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Magnifico, 3/1 Bobby Donald, 5/1 Geography, 8/1 Joli Classical, 10/1 Tavalu, 14/1 Irishkawa Bellevue, 25/1 Sea Map .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAGNIFICO will prove very hard to beat if in the same positive mood as at Taunton last week. Bobby Donald may have some further improvement in him at some stage but he had a hard race at Towcester yesterda

Looking at Magnifico's previous form, he looked like a plotted horses - ,unseated rider, pulled up, pulled up last 3 races before winning convincingly at , oh what a surprise - 14/1 - fancy that eh!
I think this was the gamble and we're a race too late. I was taken by the trigger words "very hard to beat" but there is an "if". Not for me today.

I'll leave the flat alone today, but preference would be for the fitness of the all weather runners at the flat venues. As a layer, the draw will be of interest especially over sprint races, in preferred big fields

HANDICAP TOP WEIGHTS TO LAY?
340 PLUMPTON
Tavalu - 5lbs - currently 6.2 - outside the 3/1 max but ok for the 5/1 max

Still being monitored but an interesting system.

Also effective from last year were top weights in flat handicaps to lay

3 into 1

Another 2, albeit at short prices, but effective using staking other than level stakes and % of a rolling bank staking.

230 Plumpton	My Monna
245 Huntingdon	Autograph
325 Yarmouth	Mugeba
340 Plumpton	Magnifico
430 Huntingdon	Lady Pilot
450 Plumpton	Amoreigh

Not an appealing bunch today given Easter Monday is bookie benefit day and we have soft/heavy ground along with the start of the flat season

23/3

First race at Carlisle and both mentioned horses to lay lost. The 415 dutch went south only just !
Good lay of Bajan Bandit although the 2.18 earl doors on Betfair increased since I wrote the blog.
Blackpool Billy 2nd for each way backers - at leas he was competitive.

Nevada Red lost for my new lay system albeit at a higher price. The system I am tracking looks to lay less that 3/1 SP and extends to 5/1 SP for the 2nd set to increase selection numbers. This is particularly relevant for Cordell who falls into the 2nd category to 5/1 - he won.

Thebes and Malt and Mash and Underworld won. Decider another short price top weight lay going down at 11/8

Did you pay heed to the live market. I did say if the money came for House of lords it MUST be heeded - and he won at 11/10 - money talks in maidens!

Great result either way in the Roma game. The icing on the cake today though was Sunderland's win - 0-1 correct score dutch paying out handsomely despite the stakes on the other scores (double figure odds). I got the prayer mat out as Sunderland performed exactly as expected ,keeping it tight and thanks to Scott Carson (England Keeper - you're having a giraffe!) and Chopra ,the goal came - brilliant!

3 from 6 in the 3 into 1 system - Decider I mentioned - top weight - Two left feet - I mentioned money for House of Lords.

220 Musselburgh BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Chivola, 4/1 Barraland, Kinout, 5/1 Paddy Jack, 8/1 Our Sunnie, 20/1 Miss Sunshine, 25/1 Andrasta . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHIVOLA (nap) didn't see out the sixth furlong when placed off this mark last backend and his confidence will only have been boosted by finally getting off the mark when last seen in January.[ Money for Barraland and confidence behind Chivola - level stakes dutch the 2 - slightly risky given the constricted price market. 430 BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Souffleur, 5/1 Clear Reef, 11/2 Los Nadis, 13/2 Cybersnow, 8/1 Casual Affair, 12/1 Smugglers Bay, 16/1 Nelsons Column, Pass The Port, Sadler´s Kingdom, 20/1 Cotton Eyed Joe, Red Lancer, 25/1 Gordonsville, Rehearsal, Salute . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Smart hurdler SOUFFLEUR is from a stable which has had a shaky time of it in recent months but he could still be a class act off this mark now back on the Flat. Several others have scope for improvement off their current marks, including Los Nadis, Clear Reef and Cybersnow Souffleur "could be the class act" - odds against and worth support - hint of a price gap BUT not a proper price gapper at all 300 PLUMPTON RElative hero is another top weight 5lb higher than the next BUT will be at an unlayable price - at odds of 16 too big - 5 to place - would be interesting to see if the horse is unplaced 440 History maker another qualifier but again price too big to lay 11 and 5 to place 240 TOWCESTER - The Ring -topweight by 6lbs over 3 miles odd -at 4.1 meets my criteria for a lay using my new system (BUT still being monitored) A poor day's racing today. Lays will be monitored for performance but no money on as yet. Probably a no bet day on the horses today - heavy/soft ground 3 into 1 310 Towcester Riguez dancer 335 Plumpton najca de Thaix 410 Plumpton Ede's FOOTY Very interesting football today. 130 - Man Utd v Liverpool at Old TRafford. Under 2.5 goals since 2005 in all Man Utd Liverpool fixtures, and at this stage of the season where defeat takes on added significance , this should be replicated today ,despite the presence of Ronaldo and Torres on the same pitch. First golscorer prices are very enticing - Ronaldo at 6.2, Rooney at 7.4, Torrres at 8.2 and Gerrard at 12 worth backing, for me ,at level stakes given the prices Celtic v GRetna 2-1 last time they played at Gretna - Gretna in turmoil but Celtic unconvincing of late being unable to find the net against perceived poorer opposition. Celtic should win convincingly but I will lay at 1.13 given their recent rubbish performances. To win £100 liability is £13 so this is a throw away bet. If 0-0 the odds should not move below 1.13 so I can always reverse out if GRetna don't score first (which would be a godsend!) 5.5 for hatrick scored may be worth a stake you can write off. 1.13 tells us goals are expected BUT this is Celtic! Chelsea v Arsenal is another cracker - and again can we approach this from the fact that Chelsea do not lose at home, and continue using this until they DO lose at home. Again since 2005 under 2.5 goals has been the call , and is likely to continue given the importance of the game. With the almost truism that CHelsea don't lose at home, laying Arsenal in the match odds at 3.75 looks reasonable. Correct score dutching 0-0 (to break even) 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 may pay off at odds of 8-8, 9, 7.6, 7. LAmpard and COle to score first at 10 and 13.5 represent big odds . Penalty would mean lampard would be a shoo in and given Chelski are at home, this could be a good scenario. Barcelona I will lay at 1.29 if in running. Valladolid look to be somewhat of a bogey team for them if we can take the head to heads on trust. Again I will select the best of the above bets and don't think I will back all markets.

22/3

Usual hectic Easter card, and the start of the flat proper in the UK
CARLISLE - SOFT

235
Out of interest, Benboech is the handicap top weight here by 5 lbs and more in a system I am monitoring for qualifying lays priced 4.00 or lower on Betfair. Results from year start are great to level stakes for qualifiers priced 4.00 or lower.

In a tight betting market, 11/4, 4/1 (Benboech), 4/1 and 13/2 it's quite obvious the horse has a chance but from a layer's perspective he has similarly priced rivals. This is a long term system with promise so i won't be overtly concerned if he wins. Dickie Lewis has won 3 on the trot and may qualify as a multiple handicapper worth taking on?

415
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Toy Gun, 3/1 Mrs O´Malley, 4/1 Radnor Lad, Scrappie, 14/1 Royal Mackintosh, 20/1 Windygate, 25/1 Salveo, Young Yozza, 50/1 Kalic D´Alm .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RADNOR LAD, who was a fine third on his first run over fences at Huntingdon only to disappoint last time, has conditions to suit and is taken to bounce back to form by beating course winner Mrs O'Malley and Toy Gun, who won so well over hurdles at Ayr when last seen out in January.[CR] A 4 horse race? Soft ground is the concern. 3 miles on soft can open us up to a surprise. I will chance a dutch which breaks even on Toy Gun - odds of 2.82, 5.5, 6.4, 6.8 and stakes of 17,10,10,10 leaves the break even I want on Toy Gun 525 The Bajan Bandit ,at 2/9 won as expected last time out, and current 2.18 means I think I will lay him today. The concern is there are only 2 real rivals and if one of them should fall, we're in trouble BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 The Bajan Bandit, 15/8 Grattan Lodge, 6/1 A Boy Named Sioux, 10/1 Harlov, 16/1 Eva So Charming, Rose Of The Hill, 50/1 Per Amore . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Bajan Bandit has won two from two in hunter chases this term, but had to struggle in the bad ground at Ayr on his latest start. Although an obvious contender, slight perference is for GRATTAN LODGE, who lost his way last season but has a fine record here and gets plenty of weight from his main riva Grattan Lodge and A boy named Sioux, and stretching it a bit to Harlov look the only ones running for us. DONCASTER Soft / Good to soft First turf flat meeting and we have a nice 21 runner 5 furrlong cavalry charge as the curtain riser. All 2 year olds and the market should have a bearing for anyone interested. All debutants so it's call your gran, get the pin out and hope! SImply a leave alone card for me today this one. For those looking for an angle in, with the shorter distances, check out POSTDATA which will give you an idea of the draw which has a great impact on flat turf races. HAYDOCK 300 BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Blackpool Billy, 6/1 Borero, 7/1 Pagano, 9/1 Bremen, 11/1 Plein Pouvoir, 12/1 Cruchain, Hopkins, Lease Lend, 14/1 Bobby Bullock, Leac An Scail, Spare Me, 16/1 Innominate, Jass, 20/1 Double Shot, Silver By Nature, 33/1 Prelude D´Estruval . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLACKPOOL BILLY (nap) could have crept in under the handicapper's radar and he makes most appeal. His owner, Trevor Hemmings, who loves to have winners on this track, has two other entrants with chances in Spare Me and Hopkins but most danger may come from unexposed Plein Pouvoir and ex-French Borero. Ahead of the handicapper? Blackpool Billy each way just in case! 445 HAYDOCK BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Sea Cadet, 4/1 Nevada Red, Tomillielou, 11/2 Young Smokey, 7/1 Phareight Dei, 8/1 Jacarado, 14/1 Change Agent, 16/1 Black Smoke, 20/1 Nobel Bleu De Kerpaul . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of these is particularly reliable but NEVADA RED is more trustworthy than most and stays well so he's the tentative choice to bounce back from a disappointing latest effort. Tomillielou and Sea Cadet may give him most to do Nevada Red is another top weight with a 9lbs difference to the next horse- currently 5.9 to lay and outside the ideal price. 315 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Cordell, 9/2 Admiral Dundas, Atabaas Pride, 7/1 Formation, 10/1 Vettorenjoy, 12/1 Hansinger, Hucking Hero, Moment´s Notice, 14/1 Averoo, 16/1 Jollyhockeysticks, Lady Sorcerer, 25/1 Monashee Rock, 33/1 Ocean Transit . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A typically difficult 3yo handicap to solve. Admiral Dundas and Vettorenjoy are both lightly raced potential improvers, while Cordell ran well in what looked a good event here last weekend. Mark Johnston has a plethora of talented 3yos at his disposal though and ATABAAS PRIDE can improve for this step up in trip and take advantage of what looks a handy mar Cordell has a 5lb gap to the next horse in this handicap - another possible lay. Sod's law will probably come into play today of course and all of these will win by 10 lengths - you have been warned! 350 BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Thebes, 7/1 Van Bossed, 8/1 Southwest Star, 10/1 Wigram´s Turn, 14/1 Asian Power, 16/1 Artistic License, 20/1 Sofia´s Star, 25/1 Ike Quebec . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some interesting sprinters for the coming weeks here, notably Wigram's Turn and Van Bossed, but THEBES looked miles ahead of the handicapper at Wolverhampton in the week and he should be able to follow up under his penalt Price gapper - "miles ahead of the handicapper" - price gap jumps off the page - is repeated in the early price market. 14/14 tips - top RPR, -top topspeed - postdata selection - worth siding with 425 BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Malt Or Mash, 7/4 Millville, 6/1 Miramare, 20/1 Murfreesboro, St Savarin, 25/1 Kames Park . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Millville is a reliable performer on the AW and he looks sure to go well in his bid for Listed-race glory, but MALT OR MASH looked a Group horse in waiting when winning the November Handicap and this looks a perfect stepping stone to bigger challenges in the coming months Malt or Mash "looked a group horse in the waiting" - worth backing based on this? A 3 horse race at a stretch - Ryan Moore in the plate. I don't normally like backing singularly in potential 2 horse races but will make an exception here putting my faith in Spotlight. 650 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Decider, 9/4 Dodaa, 6/1 Town House, 7/1 Blackheath, 10/1 Bentley, 16/1 Perlachy, 25/1 Lithaam . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Thriving trailblazers DODAA and Decider can dominate this from the off and, at the weights, the former might well come out on top.[BDO] Decider 11 lbs more weight than the next and layable (for the system at least) 820 BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Two Left Feet, 11/4 House Of Lords, 5/1 Inontime, 8/1 Themwerethedays, 12/1 Speyside, 16/1 Lawton, 20/1 Kijivu . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A suitable opportunity for TWO LEFT FEET, who's been shaping with considerable promise in stronger AW maidens, to make it third time lucky.[BDO] Two left feet worth backing as long as House of Lords does not come in for significant support - a maiden debutant with Jamie Spencer in the plate, the money may be significant 850 BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Underworld, 11/2 Fathsta, 7/1 Bookish, Desert Clover, 10/1 Ballycroy Boy, 12/1 Nawaaff, 14/1 Monsieur Reynard, Ten Pole Tudor . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: UNDERWORLD (nap) shaped like a useful recruit at Lingfield last month and, with any amount of improvement in the offing, he might well follow up off a realistic mark. The more experienced Fathsta can book second over a proven C&D Another price gapper? - early market 4/5 - - - 6/1 - good price gap - napped by Spotlight (kiss of death) - 14/14 tips - top RPR - top topspeed - postdata selection. NEGATIVES - first run in handicap company after single run in class 5 maiden race (which he won) - is the handicap mark lenient enough to allow for a follow up win? 3 into 1 255 NA Misbehaviour 305 Carlisle Flying falcon 350 Kempton Thebes 650 Wolves Decider 820 Wolves Two left feet 850 Wolves Underworld FOOTY Roma/Roma half time/full time at 1.82 looks worthy of an interest in enhancing the 1/5 odds. Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 is an alternative to the half time/full time for a Roma team firing at home against an Empoli side which concedes all too often. Villa v Sunderland is likely to be a tough fought match for an improving Sunderland who fight hard but have a poor away record. Against all bar the top 4 they have kept it tight awat from home. I'm going to chance correct score dutching 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-0, 2-1 - big wins on 0-1, 1-2 shock wins and break evens on 0-0. THis time of the season can instil a greater fighting spirit with the relegation threatened sides I'll be laying Boro at 4/9 against Derby today who may have had a huge confidence boost from their performance against Man united .4/9 as a layer is of no great concern liability wise against a Boro side which blows hot and cold. I will probably limit myself to 3-4 bets throughout the horses and football today as this is usually bookies benefit day.

21/3

Trading - it's all about time versus profit. Take Grays yesterday - -yes they scored first, but the equaliser brought the price back to it's starting price. And, as the game remained a draw, the odds increased the longer the game went on as a draw. So when to get out? That's the question - IT went up to 2.02 in running and then GRays scored again.
So when to get out? With trading you have a number of options
1) time based - eg after 20 minutes ? - in the 70th minute? - at half time? This time based approach would have worked yesterday up to the 60th minute
2) - price based - laying at 1.48 - where would you look to get out? 1.70 , 1.8 , 2.00 ? You could have got out at 2.00 yesterday - with a team expected to win, you just never know when the next goal is going to come.

This is the power of trading - you only have to be right for a small part of the game - yes Grays won, but a trading profit could have been made

Elsewhere yesterday I was happy to get Our Matti beaten, but he was beaten by the 2nd horse in the betting forecast! I chose the horse whose odds had reduced in the early market.Very frustrating.

3 into 1's beaten a head and a 2nd place at 2/1.

Nothing today - FLAT begins in ernest tomorrow

20/3

Dansimar did win the race at Chepstow so my speculative outsider didn't materialise - small stakes - no harm done. Chambril Minster won - I traded out at 1.4 for a slight loss monitoring in running as his price didn't breach the starting price at all but at 1.56 to lay it was a low liability opportunity in a hunter chases where we've seen 1/7 shots go down.
I was clinging on for a 2-1 in the Man Utd game as the odds were 12 on the dutch but had to settle for the 2-0 - laying any unquoted at 3.85 came in quite nicely.
Ronaldo saw my goal minutes bet and thought he's rub it in by scoring in the 9th minute - so in the 8th minute I was all smiles waiting for 10 minutes to end then.....
Rangers didn't win both halves -amazingly a carbon copy of Celtic Aberdeen first round! Spursv Chelsea - well you have to laugh -unders blown by early goal and a red screen for my troubles

CLONMEL
255

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Our Matti, 7/1 Storm Plan, 8/1 Ballymahon, 10/1 Lisselandotcom, 14/1 I Will Ya, 16/1 Sandyzar, Scottish Highland, 20/1 Amazurka, Cashmere King, Coolcomin, Dallool, No More Prisoners, 25/1 Bio Boy, Brians Girl, 33/1 Boro Ur Accordion, No Invitations, Tomagotchi, Whirlwind Higgins. A 1/3 fav should win under Ruby - Lisselandotcom at 7/1 early market looks my each way alternative, albeit in a huge field where I could foresee surprise placings 330 LUDLOW BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Galient, 15/8 La Estrella, 17/2 Prof De L´Isle, 14/1 Rudinero, 16/1 Macamoto, 28/1 Dakota Boy, 50/1 Overton Lad, Smoke It, 66/1 Son Of Samson, Woodlands Gem . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GALIENT and La Estrella are the two to concentrate on. Galient looked to achieve slightly more than La Estrella when making a winning start over hurdles at Fontwell last month and, with much less of a stamina question to answer upped to 3m now too, is preferred. 3 mile event - Prof De l'isle each way for me - Spotlight mentions it would be no surprise if the horse bustled up the market leaders Nothing really to get excited about today. Droylesden are on a 5 match losing run at present and you know what they say about animals being most dangerous when they're injured. I expect Grays to win, but will lay at 2/5 or 1.48 - the match is in running and their last encounter was a close 2-1. Could Droylseden do a Derby and post some kind of result - this is lower league stuff so I'm hoping for inconsistency and a surprise - an early goal for Droylsden would be a god send An uninspiring day altogether and nothing is put forward with too much confidence. 3 INTO 1 2 wins yesterday albeit at short prices.

310 Southwell	Saviles delight
320 Wincanton	Iris de Balme
430 Ludlow	I'm so lucky

19/3

3 against 1 in the dutch but it was apprentice ridden, and this is why I shouldn't have got involved in apprentice handicaps

Kempton farce gifts Bruning incredible debut victory

JOSEPHINE BRUNING (left) was left staring over her shoulder in disbelief as she gained her first career win by 16 lengths courtesy of "gross inexperience" by her three fellow apprentice rivals in the opener at Kempton on Tuesday. Billy Cray, Paul Nolan and Ross Atkinson were banned for a total of 34 days for allowing Bruning's mount Sol Rojo to gallop a full 30 lengths clear off the home turn without attempting to respond.

Says it all really - and a lesson to leave these unprofessional apprentices to it in future!

The dutch in the 220 came off but perserverence was a really speculative bet - guess I chose the wrong race for an outsider given the debacle of the above mentioned race.

Under 2.5 goals came in the Celtic match but they couldn't replicate the last match for a nice payout on the draw. A possible way to cover losses may have been a bet on Aberdeen at 0-0 half time at double figure odds for £2. This would negate the Aberdeen 2nd half win - great with hindsight but a method for the future?
Slight loss of £1.20 in the Lyon match

All in all a day to forget thanks to ineptitude in the saddle and the bhoys inability to win or draw at home. Interestingly now it's a 0-0 draw and 1-0 loss in 2 consecutive games. What chance a 3rd game without Celtic scoring on the trot?

CHEPSTOW - HEAVY
210
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Dansimar, 9/4 Pentasilea, 25/1 Flag Flier, Madame Secretary, 33/1 Nefertari, Poppy Smith, 100/1 Florindalus .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race to be wary of with the two apparent principals unproven on ground anything like as testing as they encounter here. DANSIMAR won a stronger race at Wincanton and is preferred to Pentasilea.

A probable 2 horse race here but again I will chance Flagflier each way at 18/1 currently. The heavy ground, alas, should not overtly concern over 2 miles and the expectation will be for the front 2 to dominate. 6 to place and 30 to win means stakes can be reduced to £2 on place and win (if normal stakes are say £10!)

500
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Chabrimal Minster, 8/1 Mister Bigtime, 10/1 Wendys Dynamo, 12/1 Brown Flyer, Hades De Sienne, 40/1 Grey Kid, 66/1 Trooper .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An uncompetitive event which should go to CHABRIMAL MINSTER barring accidents. Wendys Dynamo may be the one to take advantage of any slip-ups.

At current 1.56, well worth laying Chambril Minster to monitor in running in this hunter chase. Preference would have been for a smaller field as its easier for the horses to stay competitive, and 3 miles 5 allows plenty of scope for mistakes. Monitoring in running is the ideal here to get out at a decent price above 1.56

3 into 1

Good win yesterday at 13/8

210 Chepstow	Dansimar
300 Lingfield 325 market Rasen - Nor Nor east	Always Certain

Spotlight tells you all you need to know regarding Dansimar and heavy ground - priced as a 2 horse race the question is will he handle the ground?


RAcing very unappealing today

The Man Utd match interests this evening. Beaten 1-0 by an Anelka led Bolton side last time, this evening , this could be tricky for Man Utd with Bolton fighting for their lives, but equivalent teams recent performances against Bolton produced 3-1 and 4-1 victories. Man Utd have posted 2 4-1 results at home against Bolton in the past.

A recurring theme - they seem to be able to find a goal but lose by 2 or more.
I will lay any unquoted at 3.85 - it seems awfully short and allows us to trade as the match progresses . The assumption is United will score 4- despite the scorelines of the past, Bolton should put up a fight
1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 are priced 7.8, 6.4, 12, 7.4, 13 and can be backed to level stakes - perhaps a saver/break even on the 0-0 at 24.

I might try the first goal odds market level stakes on 11-20 minutes, 21-30 minutes , 31 - 40 minutes, 41-50 minutes, 51-60 minutes and hope there's no early goal - slight loss on 11-20 minutes and profits escalate with time.
Bolton generally seem able to hold on in the first 10 minutes

Again we see a 1/14 side -Rangers at home against Partick Thistle - a chance for an enhanced odds bet?
Odds can be bumped up to 1.44 half time/full time from 1.14 match odds.
Not in running so there's not many markets to chose from. I would have liked the over 3.5 goals here but it's not available on Betfair

Spurs v Chelsea - derby match - under 2.5 goals at 1.79 for trading purposes looks good in what could be a tight game early on despite the fire power.

18/3

Mr Fuming from Killarney signing in. There was I looking forward to a nice hatrick yesterday when those cheese eating surrender monkeys Guegnon decided to score an equaliser in the 90th minute - the bar stewards. As an in running match this one would have been ideal as Nantes took the early lead. One thing to take away from this yet again is the power of trading in running over traditional back and go. If in running I really couldn't have given a tommy tit if guegnon equalised in the 90th minute - the key factor was that the team I backed, Nantes, score first, because the drop in odds is significant enough to trade out.
Anyway, good to see Thebes win with the minimum of fuss and the unders landing both for traders and bettors in the Brum game.

Note yesterday how many 1/3 shots and shorter came unstuck - why? Heavy ground was the common denominator and throw Irish Racing into the mix and its layers paradise.

Something to note for the future. Simple equation - HEAVY GROUND+ JUMPS RACING IN IRELAND+BIG FIELD +LONG DISTANCE= LAY ANY ODDS ON SHOTS!

EXETER

HEavy ground at Exeter today and we know all about how to approach these days don't we? Probability that a number of market leaders in the close knit prices races will be vulnerable, especially using the above equation!

220
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Esteem, 3/1 Directa´s Digger, Music Celebre, 6/1 Silent City, 7/1 Benayoun, 8/1 Perseverance .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SILENT CITY has hinted at ability in some better races than this and is worth another chance at this level given that she is bred to stay well. Directa's Digger is preferred of the others

6 runner seller in heavy ground and the early prices indicate a 3 horse race at 11/4 (twice) and 5/2.
I am a little suspicious about Perserverence's form - PPPUP -hardly Cheltenham Gold Cup winning form, and I've seen it in the past that these horses miraculously turn into Pegasus when their odds hit 20/1 - funny that!

The betting forecaster indicates a tight race BUT the live market says Benayoun and Perserverence are outsiders. Highly speculative each way punt on Perserverence here with stakes you should write off.
Of course there is the probability to create a bet more likely to come off.
MArket leaders at 3.5, 3.8 and 3.9 at time of writing can be backed to level stakes with perhaps a break even bet on the shortest price horse.

So its up to you - a chance on Perserverence at 27 on Betfair and 9/1 to place for a couple of quid or a dutch on the most probable victors (although this is a seller in heavy ground!)


420
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Holy Joe, 3/1 Gaye Trigger, 11/2 Cobreces, 6/1 Shepherds Hut, Yes My Lord, 10/1 Raregem, 12/1 Lost Time, 33/1 Visibility .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This will take some getting and easy to have reservations about several of these. Holy Joe has to be respected under conditions that he will handle, but he may not be the force he was and preference is for GAYE TRIGGER who has worked his way up the pointing ranks and beat Cobreces at Barbury Castle in January. "This will take some getting" 8 runners allow for each way speculation in a hunter chase where surprises regularly occur. Raregem and Lost time can both speculatively be backed each way in a day where we hope the heavy ground will allow for surprises KEMPTON 200 BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Outlandish, 9/4 Generous Lad, Turner´s Touch, 14/1 Sol Rojo . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to be tactical and Outlandish could be handed a soft lead but it is debatable whether his debut win merits a rating of 73 and he could be vulnerable. Preference is for GENEROUS LAD who may be best excused a substandard display last week given his overall consistency.[FC] Level stakes on the front 3 will leave a break even and slight loss on Turners Touch, with a nice payout if Generous Lad wins - an apprentice runner handicap - prices currently2.7 , 2.92 and 4.4. NAAS - Heavy ground - let's see how the short prices get on today. The ideal for laying these is monitoring in running. Some meetings meet the criteria of the equation mentioned above. HEAVY at Warwick and potential shorties in Tamadot, Trigger the Light, Prince de Seuil, Back among Friends, Dickie Lewis. I cannot envisage all of these winning (but I've seen stranger things) and would consider laying if around 2.00 on BEtfair or lower On a normal day, I would immediately dismiss all heavy ground race cards and if so inclined you should too. If you fancy a good old fashioned punt on outsiders then today may be a good day with heavy ground at all jumps venues. 3 into 1 No selections yesterday - hopefully none today given the heavy going. Today there's one selection - 310 WARWICK - PRINCE DU SEUIL Heavy ground and a small field over the obstacles - hopefully Chocolate Thornton won't feel too much pressure that 3 into 1 would like a winner! 310 Warwick Prince du Seuil 310 Warwick Prince du Seuil Two shorties stand out on the footy coupon today - Celtic are 1/4 in their home match against Aberdeen in their Scottish Cup replay. Aberdeen nearly got one over Celtic but for a Vennegoor of Hesselink last gasp equaliser. I will go under 2.5 goals again in this match early doors and if 0-0 look to get out in the half time interval. Can we expect a match similar to the last one? I don't expect head to heads as they relate to the Scottish Premier league to have any real bearing on this one off match Level stakes Celtic/Celtic ; Draw/Draw ; Draw/Celtic produces a loss for Celtic /Celtic and a very nice payout on Draw/Draw Lyon have been superb of late in France , and a superb away routing of Le Mans when priced NOT to win so convincingly Note - the Betfair market mentions "To Qualify" which leads me to think this may be a Cup game so team news is vitally important. I want to see all the big boys for Lyon out tonight before getting involved. Again a half time/full time bet similar to the Celtic game .This time I'll take a loss on Draw/Draw and Draw/Lyon and load profit onto Lyon/Lyon. For a £30 stake, £20 on Lyon/Lyon at 2.06, £6 on Draw/Lyon at 4.7, and £4 on Draw/Draw at 7.2 produces ££10.64 profit on the first, and £1.80 and £1.20 losses on the other 2 eventualities

17/3

Again we were at the behest of changes in the market for the dutch. 2 horses actually overtook Valentia Island and West Ridge into favouritism and ,if you are able, you must be personally reactive to these changes. As things stood at time of writing , the 2 named horses were favourites but at the off, the market was 10/3, 3/1 ,7/2 7/2 allowing for level stakes dutching on 2 of the 3, or even break even bets on the 2 7/2 horses.

A HTB selection in Misbehaviour won well at evens. Cava Bien was in a race priced up as a 2 horse race and came 2nd

I duly backed Rangers 1-0 down at half time but they didn't score til late making a 2nd goal difficult - at least I got enhanced odds - hindsight - back the draw! - that was the ebst tradeable option.

A messy Monday with heavy ground at Downroyal and Taunton.

A lot of short prices at Downroyal and I would rather be a layer than a backer in the heavy ground, especially over 3 mile events. Nothing concrete though. The 355 sees 2 grand national hopefuls battle out in what's been priced a 2 horse race but the ground stops me from getting involved.

A small field card in heavy ground at Taunton again leaves me wanting to sit this one out.

WOLVES
400
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Thebes, 4/1 Johnny Friendly, 6/1 Greystoke Prince, 12/1 Ambrix, Arcetri, 14/1 Liberty Ship, 16/1 Mahadee, Spinning Ridge, 20/1 Easy Wonder, Karmei, Redsensor, 25/1 Casino Night .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A mark of 70 may well vastly underestimate what THEBES achieved at Southwell, albeit in a weak-looking affair, and he looks a typical Mark Johnston improver. Johnny Friendly and Greystoke Prince look the pick of the opposition.

My interest is taken by Thebes here - slight price gap although not of the quality of templated price gappers - the price gap is actually accentuated in the live market - 5/4 - - - - 6/1.
Form of 21 - top RPR - Postdata selection - query regarding distance having only run at 6 furlongs.
One to chance although each way backers can see that Johnny Freindly and Greystoke PRince are the main market rivals and if you think the upping in distance is a negative, either of these 2 each way should give a good run for your money.

3 INTO 1

No selections today. Cava Bien at the behest of the prices - 2 horses at 15/8 and 13/8 and guess who won! My analysis of the 3 into 1 shows the majority of level stakes profit comes from prices evens - 3/1. Will this hold true?

A ding dong 4-3 victory fro Nantes last time they met Gueugnon at their ground. 4/6 is reasonable enough for an away victory. Having drawn 2-2 at home last time, and with Le Havre winning convincingly on Friday, this is a must win for Nantes.

Newcastle face a really tricky game at defensively tight Birmingham tonight and again I cannot see how they will win.

Past head to heads are useless at this time. Birmingham posted a 4-1 victory over hungover Spurs - this result looks anomolous, and drew 2-2 with Arsenal ( but is this a reflection of Arsenal's decline or an improvement in Birmingham.

Both sides need the points. King Kev the Messiah etc etc etc needs a victory. I will chance under 2.5 goals here from a trading perspective. Birmingham have been resolute defensively. Newcastle can hold on in first halves and I'm hoping it remains goalless for the first 20 minutes or so.
It's not a cut and dried game this one for me

16/3

Elizabeth Swann came 1st at Kempton and guess who came 2nd - Erlydors who I flagged up as a market mover

Let yourself go was odds on so no harm done regarding the lay

Matsunosoke a great 2nd at 8/1 for each way backers. Lazy Darren was a good winner.

The speculative each wayers were unplaced at uttoxeter.

I broke even as Punchestowns won - there were doubts about the horse but not enough doubts to make it a lay.

3 into 1's - Nosferatu won - well he had to really at a silly price. Sprosser was in a wide open 3 mile Wincanton handicap chase, and the systems don't legislate for race type or distance - lost

I'm going to turn into Stan Boardman and Basil Fawlty now and have a go at the bloody Germans - Bayern Munich - 7 goals against Cottbuss in previous encounters decided to play like Bayern Derby yesterday - mug punter acca blown out the water (NOTE perhaps leave out the away teams?)

Well done Derby though - much improved performance - Eddie Lewis stood out as did Kenny Miller. I traded out of the 3.5 goals early doors. I lost in the half time market, BUT I backed United at 2.5 , for a side 1.13 before the off using my enhanced odds strategy, and thankfully they obliged. (I tried this with Bayern as well ,backing a 1.3 team at 3.5 but they didn't oblige)

Well pleased with Draw/Liverpool at 4.8 -nice, but I was hoping for Reading to hold on 1-0 so I could collect at 14's at half time!

Reading scoring first scuppered the goal dutch.

Chelsea scored early so the under 2.5 goal trade was an initial loser. For those who left it, Sunderland were as stubborn as predicted. Correct score 1-0 was a nice winner with decent returns.

Luton consented to win - oh well!

Aberdeen scored both halves to get the half time/full time bet in at 1.86.

Laying the Arse at 1.32 was superb, made better with Middlesbrough scoring the first.

Correct score 1-1 came off too.

FONTWELL

220

BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Crocodiles Rock, 13/2 Valentia Island, 7/1 West Ridge, 25/1 Sir Harry Cool, 33/1 Fortification, Latalanta, 66/1 Flamehairtemptress, Knightswood .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CROCODILES ROCK faces a much easier task than last time and the shorter trip shouldn't be a problem for this pacey sort. It will be disappointing if he can't win easily, though West Ridge is a relatively interesting rival on his old bumper form

With Crocodiles Rock out, this should concern Valentia Island and West Ridge. At 3.1 and 3.95 we can back to level stakes. I will put my faith in the the betting forecaster here.

325
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Misbehaviour, 7/2 Carew Lad, 5/1 Admiral Peary, Honduras, 6/1 Tashkandi, 25/1 Assumptalina ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An uncompetitive affair and MISBEHAVIOUR is very much the one to beat on his recent handicapping exploits. Carew Lad would have a chance if the headgear happened to work.[AWJ] With a limited field, perhaps Misbehaviour "very much the one to beat" is worth supporting at evens. Ground though is not ideal, being soft. 3 into 1 255 Fontwell - Cava Bien Uninspiring racing and football today. Perhaps an under 2.5 goal trade on the Rangers Cup final today may pay off. I suspect Rangers will eventually win and the 8/15 will look good. Perhaps if 0-0 half time or a draw half time, or RAngers 1-0 down at half time, a speculative punt on Rangers at enhanced odds could pay off.

15/3

How close was Refinement to starting the day with a 10/1 bang! A superb McCoy drive foiled at the line. Celestial Halo's win boosted the coffers . I plumped for Kauto and took a massive 75p loss on Denman although got some returns at a huge 1.39 for the place on denman.

The dutch at Fakenham came off, Book of Facts unplaced.

Rollin and Tumblin won easily .

Le Havre won and I shouldn't have got involved in Troyes - from now on it's Nantes and le HAvre to focus on in Ligue 2.

650 Kempton
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Meydan Dubai, 5/2 Elizabeth Swann, 9/2 Veni Bidi Vici, 10/1 Night Premiere, 12/1 Erlydors, Irish Music, 20/1 Coole Dodger, 100/1 Arniecoco, Estella Mai, Shabnaam, Sidestreet ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is quite a strong maiden and the pick of those with form looks to be MEYDAN DUBAI, who produced some useful juvenile efforts on turf. Elizabeth Swann also has a bright future and is feared, along with newcomer Veni Bidi Vici

With Meydan Dubai out , this looks to concern 3 with Erlydors clipped into 4/1 - significant? We can't tell with this race going off at 650 this evening.

I'll chance Elizabeth Swann tonight , preference for the place only albeit at poor odds -a string of 2nd's may be turned into a win now with the main rival out.

LIMERICK - HEAVY GROUND
415
Laying Let Yourself Go in the heavy ground, if showing at 7/4 may give us a return.
A card full of maiden hurdles = bookie benefit day

LINGFIELD
350
ETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Excusez Moi, 9/2 Matsunosuke, 5/1 Conquest, King Orchisios, 7/1 Maltese Falcon, 20/1 Stoneacre Lad, 25/1 Silver Prelude, Tartatartufata, 33/1 Esteem Machine, Merlin´s Dancer .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to be run at a blistering gallop and the ones to concentrate on are EXCUSEZ MOI, Matsunosuke and Conquest. Preference is for the first-named, whose fitness is assured and who comes here in much better form than he did when only ninth in this last yea

Potential price gapper here mirrored in the morning price market.
Top RPR - top topspeed - 1st last time out - fresh - course winner - postdata selection - familiar jockey

NEGATIVES - listed event - horse dropping in trip - 5 furlongs a tricky distance - scoop 6 race leads us to suggest it is not that easily solved.

In conclusion I always like price gappers in listed events - the price gap seems to take on added significance. May be worth support, preference for the place only, or prehaps Matsunosoke each way.

NEWCASTLE
215
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Riguez Dancer, 4/1 Hello Nod, Isidore Bonheur, 6/1 Lazy Darren, 16/1 Currahee, 33/1 Bramcote Lorne, Canny Bay, Sam Cruise, 50/1 Easby Park, Hestherelad, My Bobby, Mysterious World, Parisian Miss, Tempo Sound .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks to concern four, the previous winners, Hello Nod, Lazy Darren and RIGUEZ DANCER together with the decent Flat performer Isidore Bonheur, who returning to jumping. Riguez Dancer, who won on fast ground on the Flat, and is improving steadily over jumps, makes the most appeal.[CR]

I know to my cost that taking short prices in novice hurdles should carry a wealth warning. but why is the horse now trading at 5/6 early doors.
Not quite in the classic price gapper territiry with the close proximity of the 4/1 horses.
Looking at the betting forecast this chould concern 4 horses and perhaps LAzy Darren each way will give us a run for our money incase the fav consents to not run to his price.

220 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kings Euro, 4/1 Dr Hart, 5/1 Stagecoach Opal, 13/2 Michael Muck, 7/1 The Real Deal, 8/1 Gidam Gidam, Malakiya, 50/1 Desperate Dex .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kings Euro comes into this in good form but the handicapper has taken no chances with him after his narrow success last time at Newbury. He is certainly worth considering, as is handicap debutant Dr Hart, but the vote goes to STAGECOACH OPAL, who is well treated on his best efforts and is from a yard going great guns at present

Kings Euro has now won 3 on the bounce and the 5/2 tells us that this may not be his day. The straight 8 here today allows for each way betting. The betting forecaster is having difficulty splitting the field - look at the congestion between 4/1 -8/1. Only one outsider - Michael muck and Gidam Gidam each way for me - highly speculative but this is a Saturday so you never know

405
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Punchestowns, 9/2 Auroras Encore, 6/1 Ouzbeck, 7/1 Busker Royal, 9/1 Ogee, 12/1 Ballynalty Express, 20/1 Yeoman Spirit, 25/1 Newby Abbey, Sir Winston, 33/1 Isaac Newton, 50/1 Changing Lanes, Job One, Lets Get Cracking, Thegalleryman, 100/1 Ardfry, Colonial Jim, Katy´s Classic, Weet For Ever .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PUNCHESTOWNS (nap) beat similar opposition on his hurdling introduction at Sandown and, with that positive experience to draw upon, he's fancied to successfully give weight to dangers Auroras Encore and Ouzbeck.[BDO]

Potential price gapper here - price gap accentuated in the early market - Punchestowns now at 10/11.
POSITIVES - HEnderson/Fitzgerald combination - winner last time out - 13/14 tips - joint top RPR - top topspeed - postdata selection - drew clear last time out

NEGATIVES - 17 runners (but 11 are 33/1 or bigger) - novices hurdle - no "hard to beat" or ultra positive statements from Spotlight's verdict or Spotlight - running under a penalty- the biggest weight the horse has carried

The lack of Spotlight positivity puts me off. There are arguments for each way backing.

I will create abreak even on Punchestowns and back the next 4 - this means bigger stakes on the fav -at current prices the ratio is £26 for the fav and £6 the rest

3 INTO 1
Rollin and Tumblin at 11/8 -minimum of fuss yesterday

225 Wetherby	Sprosser
335 Wetherby	Nosferatu

nosferatu too short to be considered a bet.
Sprosser runs in a 3 mile handicap -market leader currently - we';; get a ncie price ,around 9/4 currently ,should he oblige

FOOTY

First game of interest - Bayern away having rested some against Anderlecht mid week.
Over 3.5 goals is tradeable at 2.88 - previous results show Bayern win by 2 clear goals at least. Safer option over 2.5 goals at 1.75 currently.

Bayern/Bayern and Draw/Bayern pays 1/2 with break even on the draw

MAn Utd are 1/6 away to Derby ,reeling from humiliation at Stamford Bridge. At their gaff against equivalent opposition Derby have lost 2-0 and 2-1 but will they stem the flow this afternoon. 1/6 suggests not.

A tendency to get at least one means the clean sheet is out of the window. Even if Man Utd are 3 up, they won't be overtly concerned by a Derby goal.

Half time/full time United enhances the match odds, bumping them up to 1.61.

Over 3.5 goals looks tradeable if United replicate last 2 matches. the 2.44 should reduce amply with a couple of goals to make it a good trade.

Liverpool again look bettable propositions and at 2/7 at Anfield should beat Reading
Draw/Liverpool in isolation at 4.8 could come in if they consent to leave the Scousers sweating til the 2nd half. of course breaking even on Liverpool/Liverpool sacrifices some profit but is safer.

First goalscorer -Torres at 4, Gerrard at 6.6 and Babel at 7.8 are dutchable to level stakes given the shortest price is 4

HAlf time score, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 is dutchable with a nice payout if Reading nick the goal . In recent weeks Liverpool have tended to take their time getting the first goal

Chelsea are almost identical odds to Everton last week at the Stadium of Shi, sorry Light.
Could give tell us that a 1-0 to the away side is the most probable scoreline, with the Black Cats holding on for some time

1.85 under 2.5 goals is tradeable for the first 20 minutes as the Black Cats should keep chelsea at bay but eventually succumb to one goal and perhaps a late goal.

Correct score dutch 0-0. 0-1, 1-2, could be profitable as I can see Chelsea winning but not by a Derby type scoreline

Big odds mean stakes can be smaller

Luton look layable at home at 7/4 against Oldham who they've drawn twice.

With Gretna is disarray this week, the 2/7 about ABerdeen looks a steal. Chance half time full time at 1.86? Apparently Gretna are in trouble as a club. I am no expert on Scottish football but this may be exploitable by opposing them today

2 draws on the trot for the gunners is unacceptable if they want to get the Title. Boro are sticky opposition to the Gunners in recent history.

Winning margin 1 and 2 goals is dutchable to level stakes.

I get the feeling the Arse could be layable at 1.32 for minimal liability during the early part of the match. Boro really are like Liverpool were - totally unreliable as a betting proposition - which Boro will turn up today?

This is likely to be close ( he said preparing some egg to put on his face a bit later on) and score line 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 , 2-0 can be backed to level stakes

MUG PUNTER ACCA

A welcome return for the mug punter in the expectation my renewed faith in Liverpool playing to their price can be rewarded

1	Aberdeen v Gretna (Backing Aberdeen @ 1.31)
2	Derby v Man Utd (Backing Man Utd @ 1.17)
3	Liverpool v Reading (Laying Reading @ 26)
4	Sunderland v Chelsea (Laying Sunderland @ 9.88)
5	Olympiacos v Atromitos (Laying Atromitos @ 57.82)
6	Arsenal v Middlesbrough (Laying Middlesbrough @ 20.8)
7	Cottbus v B Munich (Laying Cottbus @ 17.53)

7-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7	2.0	£100.00	£100.00

Evens return is reasonable here - reliance on wins for United and Aberdeen (see previous argument for backing them)
Potential sticking points are Boro and Sunderland - could nick 1-0's ?

This one is for those who eat 3 shredded wheat

1	Cottbus v B Munich (Backing B Munich @ 1.35)
2	Aberdeen v Gretna (Backing Aberdeen @ 1.31)
3	Derby v Man Utd (Backing Man Utd @ 1.17)
4	Liverpool v Reading (Backing Liverpool @ 1.26)
5	Sunderland v Chelsea (Laying Sunderland @ 9.61)
6	Olympiacos v Atromitos (Backing Olympiacos @ 1.17)
7	Arsenal v Middlesbrough (Laying Middlesbrough @ 19.45)
8	Club Brugge v Molenbeek (Backing Club Brugge @ 1.26)

8-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and 8	4.51	£100.00	£351.00

4.51 tells us the chance of success!

14/3

Market leaders came in the first 2 at Cheltenham for the dutches. 255 dutch would have worked - the Listener unplaced. Inglis Drever was superb and blew the stats men to bits. Laying in running and the price rarely moved so getting out of the lay was the key. Alas fingers not so nimble to get back on Inglis - superb win though. Yet again though , the price gapper analysis proved correct for the 3rd day on the trot but I was dissuaded.

Milly the Filly a non runner.

Exit Fourty Four unplaced.

Boris the Blade was a good lay with 2nd fav Topaz Lady pushed into favouritism

315
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Blue Empire, 5/2 Ugenius, 9/2 Boundless Prospect, 12/1 Outlook, Persian Fox, 25/1 Zeffirelli, 33/1 Amazing Spirit, Rambling Socks .

I left out the obvious each wayer - yes Boundless Prospect won!

0-0 half time in Werder game allowed a marginal profit. In 2 leg games where one side is 2-0 up, it would seem, in the future, that under 2.5 goals is the way to go. One team have to ensure no away goal is scored - the other team has to preserve their lead

CHELTENHAM
1230
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Chomba Womba, 7/2 Sweet Kiln, 9/2 Theatre Girl, 6/1 Gaspara, 13/2 Labelthou, Refinement, 25/1 Whiteoak, 33/1 Helens Vision, Shatabdi, 40/1 Annie´s Answer, 66/1 Magical Legend, Silver Charmer, 150/1 La Vecchia Scuola.

6 horse race it would seem and I'll chance Refinement and Sweet Kiln each way without much confidence

215
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Franchoek, 7/2 Celestial Halo, 13/2 Five Dream, 9/1 Beau Michael, 12/1 Silverhand, 14/1 Serabad, Won In The Dark, 16/1 Personal Column, 20/1 Songe, 33/1 Temlett, 50/1 Star Of Angels, 66/1 Lemon Silk, 100/1 Callisto Moon, 150/1 Special Day, 200/1 Diego Velasquez .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alan King has won this twice in the last three years and has a fine chance of another success with FRANCHOEK (nap) who has established himself as the leader of his generation with his authoritative wins at Chepstow and here on his last two starts. Paul Nicholls has an interesting hand with Celestial Halo and the smart handicapper Five Dream, but the main threat may emerge from Silverhand who did well for one so inexperienced when second to Beau Michael at Punchestown and has plenty of potential for improvement.[AC]

Current prices - Franchoek priced 2.46 , Celestial Halo 6.6 ; Five Dream 11 ; Beau Michel 12

I'll stake £17, £9, £7, £7 - break even on Franchoek and nice profit on the others .

330
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kauto Star, 11/8 Denman, 14/1 Exotic Dancer, 16/1 Halcon Genelardais, 25/1 Neptune Collonges, 33/1 Knowhere, Star De Mohaison, 40/1 Afistfullofdollars, 100/1 Celestial Gold, Racing Demon, 500/1 Azulejo, Contraband, Fustrien Du Paon, Iron Man ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The big two are virtually inseparable in the betting and it is a very tough call, but the speed of KAUTO STAR is expected to be too much for the galloping power of Denman provided the ground does not soften markedly. Denman has looked mightily impressive this season but the form is not the most solid, his Hennessy and Lexus wins being gained in races run at less than a true pace while the opposition fell apart when he was long odds-on at Newbury. Kauto Star has done no more than might have been expected of him since last year but has taken apart smart opposition some way from home in the King George and Ascot Chase the last twice and his serious jumping errors look a thing of the past. \Exotic Dancer is the only other with comparable form claims and he comes here on an interrupted preparation.[FC]

The Big One. A 2 horse race - both currently backable - you can change stake to leave break even on Denman and load profit on Kauto - or the other way around.
Simply put follow your opinion.!
1.39 Denman for the place is a great bet for me. I've seen worse 1.39 shots.

FAKENHAM
225
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Leopold, 7/4 Red Scally, 9/2 Toni Alcala, 10/1 Desert Tommy, 16/1 Celtic Society .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LEOPOLD wouldn't be the most talented of these but he's the one proven over fences and therefore the safest bet in a very tame opener.[AWJ]

First 2 backable here to level stakes. 3 miler beginner chase though - arggh! -2 horses at 10/1 or bigger leaves Toni Alcala the fly in the ointment

530
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Donaldson, 7/1 Book Of Facts, 10/1 Schelm, Wee Charlie Castle, 14/1 Weststern, 20/1 Mount Usher, 25/1 Byron Bay, 33/1 Bedizen, 50/1 Laconicos, 100/1 Jollys Joy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to see beyond DONALDSON, who might well have had something to say in a Graded event at Kempton last month but for a shocking error two from home.[AWJ]

Each way Book of facts incase Donalson falls again in this maiden hurdle with an unknown jockey on board

KEMPTON
850
Rollin ´n Tumblin

Progressing well on AW this year, opening account in maiden here before proving he stays this trip when heavily eased in beating Alnwick at Lingfield last week; remains unpenalised for that success and in-form jockey gets on well with him and takes 3lb off; hard to beat.

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Rollin ´n Tumblin, 5/1 Alnwick, 6/1 Lorikeet, 10/1 High Point, 12/1 One To Follow, Savannah, 14/1 Mister Completely, 16/1 Featherlight.

"Hard to beat" - good price gap. - 13 from 14 tipsters - 9 day course and distance winner - postdata selection -

NEGATIVE - falls into the category of multiple handicap winner -won last twice - winning sequence must end soon but not priced to lose tonight.

I'll chance him tonight against my better judgement. Any price move and it will signal that tonight's not the horse's night, but if he remains evens or thereabouts I'll back him

3 into 1
loser yesterday by a short head and neck!

850 KEMPTON - ROLLIN AND TUMBLIN - 2 wins already in last 2 for this one in a handicap - priced for the hatrick but no surprise if this mulitple handicap winner's winning sequence ends - PLEASE hold on tonight Rollin!

FOOTY
0-0 half time allowed a tradeable opportunity on the lay of Werder.

Ligue 2 for me this evening - Troyes won superbly against Le Havre last time - and at home this evening will be carrying a couple of shillings of mine.
Le Havre away from home at evens are priced to win, probably by a single goal

13/3

The day started off great with Lady Pilot winning at SP 15/2 -bigger on Betfair, but my opposition to They all laughed -the 3 into 1 selection, floundered, as, at 5/6, he won readily. obviously the drift on red Wine was fully justified yesterday. Nice to get another price gapper in, in High Five Society at 4/6 - 2 on the trot in a poor class 7 classified event - a nice 3 length victory left me in no bother
2 out of 2 for the 3 into 1 yesterday albeit at prices which will hardly have you writing the resignation letter to the boss.

Hugely disappointed in my Bayern analysis - why select a side who have scored 5 away from home in a 2 leg affair where away goals count? Ridiculous. A look at the team news confirmed my supicions that it was job done but I was unable to change the blog. Hope you used the "questions" to suss this out!

Celtic just didn't win, and even at home against a Dundee side weakened .

I put all the clues up for the Chelsea score but pussied out by doing the over 2.5 goals instead of over 3.5 goals at a juicy 2.8.
Looking at other top 4 scorelines against Derby, I could have been well justified in expecting 4, but was swayed too much by the recent 2-0 head to head.
Loss on the Villa trade which I traded out of after Villa equalised. 1.65 to back and 3.5 to lay left a loss for trading .

One of those days - the good pile made up from Lady Pilot eroded by some poor football decisions

Onto today and Cheltenham is cramming them in - the races I mean.

Ground is officially good to soft although I suspect there is a bit more soft than good.
CHELTENHAM

1230
Amateur riders novices chase - I'll get me coat!
It's a 4 miler as well and an ideal opportunity to lay the favourite with a view to backing at a higher price in running.
There's no point me trying to solve this puzzle.

105
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Air Force One, Albertas Run, 5/1 Pomme Tiepy, 13/2 Silverburn, 7/1 Oscar Park, 8/1 Starzaan, 12/1 Joe Lively, 20/1 Battlecry, Roll Along, Verasi, 50/1 Bagan,

Do you remember Pomme Tiepy - the Willie Mullins mare? Has won twice when I've selected her on the blog.
The fact this is a scoop 6 race and betfair have a "name the favourite" market whould tell you all you need to know. With the favourite currently 5.9, you can back 6 horses to level stakes and hope you'll landed the winner amongst those 6 selections.
With 5.9 the shortest price, that horse will incur a slight loss. Looking at the Betfair market, Albertas Run is the 5.9 horse, then there's Pomme Tiepy, Air force one, Silverburn, Oscar Park, Starzaan.

220
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Master Minded, Voy Por Ustedes, 4/1 Tamarinbleu, Twist Magic, 11/1 Fair Along, 16/1 Mansony, 25/1 Newmill, Schindlers Hunt, 500/1 Contraband ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has found it hard to split Master Minded and Twist Magic and both have looked potential winners of this race in their turn this season. Master Minded's home work suggests he might just be extra special but, with Tamarinbleu, Newmill and Fair Along at it hammer and tongs up front, his jumping is going to be placed under extra pressure on a course he has never tackled. There's no doubt VOY POR USTEDES will have to better both last year's form and this season's efforts to retain his crown but he blooms at this fixture and the blistering gallop could play into his hands

Very interesting race this one - betting forecaster makes it a 4 horse race
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Master Minded, Voy Por Ustedes, 4/1 Tamarinbleu, Twist Magic
with 11/1 bar these 4
Again these 4, at current prices can be backed to level stakes, with a gradual increase in returns as we move down the card. Voy por estedes and Masterminded will incur slight profit, with the really big payout going on the other 2.
Current Betfair prices of 4.1, 4.2, 5.4, 5.9 allow this level stakes dutching.

Other angles in? Well with the prices so tight, laying the fav to trade in running with 3 close rivals could be an option?
The place market really tells us the difficulty of the race with the shortest priced 1.65 and this, to place in the first 3 in an 8 runner race!

255
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Mossbank, 7/2 Our Vic, The Listener, 11/2 L´Antartique, 7/1 Turko, 12/1 Racing Demon, 20/1 Billyvoddan, 33/1 Justified, 50/1 Knight Legend ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A clutch of these are within a few pounds of one another but the one which looks most likely to run to form is THE LISTENER (nap), who is preferred on that basis. This gutsy front-runner comes here in good form and, with today's shorter trip a very possible plus after finishing just behind Mossbank when they filled the places behind Denman in the Lexus Chase over 3m at Leopardstown in December, may be able to turn that form around now. Mossbank is still a big danger and may well be next best.[

Again, a dutchable race with 4.4 the fav on Betfair, IF we can put faith in the price market being accurate.
2 non runners out of the 11 brings the field down to 9, 3 horses are 25/1 or bigger -can we dismiss these? If so, brings the field down to 6.
The listener to place? 1.85 is reasonable enough

330

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Inglis Drever, 6/1 Blazing Bailey, 8/1 Kasbah Bliss, 9/1 My Way De Solzen, 10/1 Hardy Eustace, Wichita Lineman, 12/1 Kazal, 20/1 Aitmatov, Lough Derg, The Market Man, 33/1 Special Envoy, 50/1 Chief Dan George, Ebaziyan, Material World, 66/1 Flight Leader, 100/1 Sonnyanjoe, 200/1 Redemption .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tidal Bay's Arkle win laid to rest the doubts about the form of Howard Johnson's yard and INGLIS DREVER is clearly the one to beat in his bid to win this race for the third time, having confirmed himself at least as good as ever this season. Robert Thornton keeps faith with the 2006 winner My Way De Solzen but his performances this season leave a good deal to be desired and blinkers clearly need to inspire. Stable companion Blazing Bailey looks a more solid proposition and cast iron for the frame, with Kazal most interesting of the rest.[AC]

A 3 miler over good to soft ground which may be turning softer as the day progresses.
Price gap is there - Spotlight commentary - " clearly the one to beat"- "and very much the one to beat on track that plays to his strengths (not out of first two in six visits)."- TOP RPR - TOP TOPSPEED - 7 tips - won his last 2 - highest official rating.

NEGATIVES - on a hatrick in this race - very difficult probability wise to wrap up - 17 runner field - 3 mile distance in ground which might become soft - no 9 year old has won this race

Despite the price gapper potential, clearly a lay for me to monitor in running. With 3 miles ahead of us, ample opportunity to trade out if Inglis is running well and revert to backing at the end of the race.

The rests of the races are really imponderables without .I suppose, insider knowledge. Perhaps a scan using the 16.1 system may unearth some interesting qualifiers with an amateur riders race and a bumper ending the card.

HEXHAM

Soft ground
230

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bollin Ruth, 3/1 Millie The Filly, 6/1 Mini Minster, 7/1 Hello My Lovely, 10/1 Cuccinello, Patxaran, 12/1 Dippy Duck .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to believe that Millie The Filly will be at her best just five days after finishing exhausted on desperate ground, so BOLLIN RUTH, who also comes here in good heart and has her ideal conditions, is preferred.[

A case to oppose Milly the Filly?-lower odds in the place only market.

340
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Blackpool Billy, 11/4 Battle Stations, 9/2 Exit Forty Four, 20/1 Stark Raven, 33/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, 50/1 Scuzme, Silverdales, 66/1 Daniel´s Dream, Naval Attache, 100/1 Kinfayre Boy, Perez .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BLACKPOOL BILLY hasn't been given much time to recover from his exertions in terrible conditions at Ayr last week but he would not need to be at his best to follow up.[SR]

Exit Forty Four each way here may be a good alternative to the fav who won in desparate conditions at Ayr last week and might be vulnerable in this soft ground?

455
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Boris The Blade, 3/1 Topaz Lady, 13/2 Newgate Suds, 10/1 Cheers Thank You, 12/1 Nifty Roy, 14/1 Political Sox, 16/1 Ben Nelly, 20/1 Northern Vic, 25/1 Oscar Trial, 33/1 Dantor, Vicious Prince, 50/1 Into The Dawn, 66/1 Bobby Icata ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BORIS THE BLADE showed a willing attitude to score at Ayr last time and will take all the beating if able to repeat that effort just six days later. Serious alternatives look thin on the ground, with Topaz Lady perhaps the biggest danger

Another coming back 6 days after heavy ground performance at Ayr, now in soft ground near the end of the card. One to lay for me over 3 miles to back at a higher price. Problem is -as Spotlight says - no real opposition!

SOUTHWELL

315
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Blue Empire, 5/2 Ugenius, 9/2 Boundless Prospect, 12/1 Outlook, Persian Fox, 25/1 Zeffirelli, 33/1 Amazing Spirit, Rambling Socks .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are a couple in the race with higher official ratings than BLUE EMPIRE but both have doubts about them for one reason or another and the selection is the safer. Ugenius will be thereabouts if putting his poor Tuesday run behind him.[GN]

Chance on Outlook and Persian Fox each way with doubts about the front 3 for one reason or another in a poor seller

3 into 1
540 SOUTHWELL - CLEVELAND

looks to be my only qualifier today

FOOTBALL
Nothing really appeals in tonights football. Werder Bremen at 4/7 look layable perhaps to trade off at a higher price. I can't write off Rangers at all

12 MARCH

Cheltenham off today thanks to the win - that's what you get for serving Guinness and Curry in an enclosed space.
Hit and miss yesterday - the big dutches worked as market leaders dominated in these races. Broadband problems today leave me a little rushed

HUNTINGDON
140
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Herald Angel, 7/2 Lady Pilot, 6/1 Mondial Jack, 7/1 Aqua Pura, 12/1 Tarkesar, 20/1 Sunbolt, The Grandchild, 50/1 Booster Divin, 66/1 Purr .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these would be interesting in a run-of-the-mill handicap but HERALD ANGEL approaches the race in particularly good form and looks the one to beat. Lady Pilot, Mondial Jack and Aqua Pura are others expected to go we

LAy Pilot and Aqua Pura each way against the fav couls be a fair option given the length of the race

SOUTHWELL
425
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 They All Laughed, 7/4 Red Wine, 9/2 Exit To Luck, 10/1 Victory Quest, 20/1 Active Asset .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Red Wine's last Flat form worked out well and this trip should suit but he's not won for many a year and is not one for skinny odds. This could go to THEY ALL LAUGHED, who conversely does know how to win and who has been at the top of his game of late

Early move in this race for Exit to luck and with Active asset a non runner ,we could oppose They all laughed by backing the 3 others to level stakes, shortest price 4.1 allows this . With the betting forecaster finding difficulty splitting THey all laughed and Red Wine, we can hope he has got it right and the drift on Red Wine will not signify a bad run

A meeting with a lot of short pried market principals in small fields not allowing for any real each way opposition

WOLVES

Another meeting of familiar horses reopposing and a difficult card because of that

920
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 High Five Society, 13/2 Keon, 8/1 Castle Frome, 10/1 The Power Of Phil, 12/1 Bonnet O´Bonnie, 16/1 Lily La Belle, 20/1 Royal Lustre, 25/1 Ingleby Hill, 33/1 Almowj, Crimson Flame, Lizarazu, 50/1 Flaming Cat, Shami .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGH FIVE SOCIETY brings the best recent form to the table and though he will start at short odds looks by far the likeliest winner after his recent runaway win here.

Potential price gapper here in high five society

POSITIVES - price gap is demonstrable - 10\11 tips - 7 days since last run = fresh - course and distance winner - top RPR - postdata selection - familiar jockey on board who has got a 2nd and 1st place from the horse - 50% strike rate for trainer in last 2 weeks although 4 year old strike rate not impressive

NEGATIVES - class 7 classified race - we can't really get a lower class than this apart from banded stakes and donkey derbies - this means that the horses are generally not to be trusted to uphold their form -

I do like Spotlight's comment though
High Five Society

Good second to rejuvenated one landing hat-trick in similar event over slightly further on recent reappearance before running away with similar event from similarly poor draw over this C&D latest; repeat of that form will make him very difficult to beat.

" very difficult to beat" - the kind of definitive positive comment i want to see.

One to back for me to monitor in running

3 into 1

One winner yesterday

225 Southwell	Yakimov
425 Southwell	They all laughed

FOOTY

I will probably focus my bets today on the football given the raft of difficult races we face today in Cheltenhams absence

The lay of Liverpool at 1.28 didn't come off - well done the Reds and really I wasnt concerned given the price It was still a good option as one Inter goal would have allowed for a profit.

under 2.5 goals green screen was achieved with the minimum of fuss.

Carlisle won both halves against Luton for a nice return on the half time\full time market

Plenty of opportunities tonight

In the Premiership we have 3 matches and the one that springs to mind is Chelsea v Derby as the most predictable.
Chelsea don't lose at home ! That's a way in but 1\9 odds need to be enhanced elsewhere.

Chelsea clean sheet at 1.52 currently is enticing and enhances the 1.13 odds about them in the match odds market

Usually with 1/9 shots my attention would immediately be on the over 3.5 goals market at 2.52 as a tradeable option only, but recent head to heads point at this being no rout
Chelsea's recent haul against West Ham probably tells us more about West Ham than Chelse's goal scoring prowess.

If we look at Derby against equivalent opposition away from home, Man Utd won 4-1 and Arse won 5-0.

Preference for me would be the 1.6 over 2.5 goals to trade

1.45 Chelsea/Chelsea enhances the 1.13 considerably and I'll dispense with the draw/Chelsea cover

Bayern have already done a job on Anderlecht and how will they approach this evening's home leg. 1/5 suggests they will add to Anderlecht's woes but Anderlecht did have 10 men for a large part of the game.
Again a chance can be taken on Bayern/Bayern half time/full time again without the saver on the Draw/bayern at 1.86

Celtic must win tonight at home to keep the pressure on Rangers in the Scottish Premier, and again and again half time /full time is the way to go for me ,on Celtic/Celtic and Draw/Celtic with break even - slight loss on the latter

Villa have scored 3 against boro twice in their last 2 away at Boro and more can hopefully be expected this evening from the attacking Villains
1.65 match odds to back and trade after Villa hopefully score first is my option here

11 MARCH

First things first - my email at whatreallywins@yahoo.co.uk has told me there has been some unusual activity detected and has suspended my ability to send, receive or save emails for 48 hours so anyone who has emailed expecting a reply - sorry I cannot reply until yahoo lift the restriction.

Light Yield won the first for the dutch for a nice profit - break even if the fav won.
Nice to get a victory having taken on Downs Folly and Scotland Yard provided it

Very happy with my synopsis on Native Coral who won nicely and at a juicy 3/1 which in no way reflected the 6/4 betting forecast.
Soft/Heavy in places did for the 3 into 1 selections and we see the importance of ground . It turns backs into lays as was seen at Ayr at the end of last week with these selections. A blanket ban on heavy ground selections is perhaps the common sense thing to do

Well done to Nantes in a game which was surprisingly in running for a ligue 2 clash. I got out after the first goal was scored, sacrificing nearly half my profit on Nantes to ensure a green screen.
1-0 is too precarious a scoreline to consider leaving any bets in

Again, with Nantes, we see the importance of focussing on what you know. This season in Ligue 2 I have focussed on Nates and Le Havre only. In the Scottish Premiership, I have focussed on Rangers and Celtic only.
In the Premiership, I focus on those teams who show general characteristics to their play ( eg Wigan and Brum tight defensively - Man Utd -goals expected) etc.

Itmay be good for next season to draw up a list of leagues and teams you'd like to follow - perhaps evolve this list as the seasons progress to include those flying high and those fighting relegation. It is this focus which enables me to get it right most of the time. Some football tipsters deliberately seek out bigger prices in obscure games and really don't perform.

CHELTENHAM
Yes I'm going to enjoy the Festival but will treat it as any other race card betting wise. You will see a lot of people looking to bet on every single race because it is Cheltenham. I will be employing laying in running tactics in today's festival as well as trying to back the winner in running too - a bit of flexibility given real time terrestrial coverage.

200
Epitomises the kind of race to simply avoid.23 runners - check out the number of 1's in the form columns - 8/1 the field
How will I approach this race? Well, I will be looking to lay the first named on Betfair to nick a fiver green screen as its price should rise in running.
This type of race will be good for 16/1 system users to enable us to look out for potential stable gambles or horses whose prices have been shortened surrepticiously by the bookies.

For those itching to have a punt, it's 9.00 the field on Betfair so we can chose 9 horses to back and still make a profit if one wins. Backing Khyber Kim, Muirhead, Rippling Ring, Binocular, Pigeon Island, Cork all star, Captain Cee Bee, Sentry Duty , Pasco leaves break even on Khyber Kim as the horse is at 9.00 and an ecscalating profit on the others. Why these horses? I'm simply going from the top of the Betfair screen downwards

With prices for the place only market at 3.7 the lowest and generally 4.00 upwards, again with the 4.00 horses as the lowest of your selections, you can select 3 and still profit if one comes in BUT only 3 to place. Win Win if all 3 you've chosen are placed - (if they do -congrats!)

BOTTOM LINE - 23 runners -highly competitive - no bet for me - monitor in running for me to lay and back . Might play the in running place only market.

235
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Noland, 15/2 Tidal Bay, 8/1 Clopf, Ring The Boss, 9/1 Thyne Again, 10/1 Mahogany Blaze, 12/1 Leslingtaylor, 14/1 Kruguyrova, 16/1 Moon Over Miami, 20/1 Scotsirish, 25/1 French Accordion, 33/1 Marodima, 250/1 Orpen Wide, 500/1 Premiership .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All have their drawbacks. Tidal Bay and NOLAND are the established class acts and the 2006 Supreme Novices' winner seems to bring fewer negatives even if the trip is shorter than ideal. Ring The Boss looks the one most capable of improvement among the rest and further rain will help his cause.[RA]

The Arkle Chase - GRade 1 - class 1 - says it all about the quality of the field. Using my usual techniques, do we have a potential price gapper in Noland

2/1 - - - 15/2 is a good gap especially given the quality of the race. Ruby on board - has won last 5 races -course and distance winner - fresh -18 days since last race - price gap remains in early market (9am) ;

NEGATIVES - Highly competitive field with plenty of 1's in the form column - NOT top RPR - NOT top topspeed - Spotlight concern over sharpness of trip which may leave the horse vulnerable - predicted rain may not be a positive. -

MY PLAY - Again too competitive for me. I will,again, lay Noland at 3.2 to back at a higher price in running hopefully or get out at a predetermined loss of £10 all round,
If I were to play, this looks an ideal each way race if we can safely dismiss the outsiders in Scots Irish, French Accordian, Marodima, Orpen Wide and Permiership.
This leaves 9 horses and 3 to place. I would back Mahogany Blaze and Lesling Taylor each way - just outside the main protagonists yet not nestled in outsiders territory

315

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sizing Europe, 5/1 Osana, 11/2 Sublimity, 7/1 Harchibald, 10/1 Catch Me, Katchit, 25/1 Afsoun, Ebaziyan, Punjabi, Straw Bear, 50/1 Blythe Knight, Bobs Pride, Farmer Brown, 66/1 Kalderon, 100/1 Salford City, 200/1 Kawagino, 500/1 Contraband .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Surprisingly few make much appeal as prospective winners. Sizing Europe's much-improved performance when winning so well at Leopardstown last time gives him strong prospects on form and, still only a 6yo and comparatively lightly raced, he well may have further progress in him. However, there is a concern with his hurdling amidst the cut-and-thrust of a fast-paced Champion Hurdle so preference is for HARCHIBALD, who was right back to his best when an easy winner of Newcastle's Fighting Fifth at Newcastle in December, had an excuse next time at Kempton and looked in rude health again when landing a 13th career win (Flat and hurdles combined) in a useful minor event on the AW at Dundalk 11 days ago. Provided Paul Carberry is prepared to push the button sooner than when just beaten in a controversial finish to this in 2005, Harchibald has the class to win a lesser-contested race this time. Sizing Europe is still the biggest danger, with Afsoun appealing most of the rest. [MCu]

One of the "talking horses" this one, Sizing Europe has been making the headlines in recent days and does hold an outstanding chance. For those taken by the hype, 3.65 on BEtfair is reasonable odds to monitor to lay off if the price shortens in running.
Again one to lay for me, to back at a higher price in running in another competitive race where a couple hold a decent enough chance to be considered rivals.
Each wayers can see an angle in - the price band I would look for on BEtfair would be 6.4 to 13 and I would select 2 each way, Harchibald at 9 and Catch me at 13.

400
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 An Accordion, 7/1 Patsy Hall, 9/1 Monkerhostin, Ofarel D´Airy, 10/1 Abragante, L´Ami, 12/1 Fundamentalist, King Harald, New Alco, 14/1 Mon Mome, 20/1 Bob Hall, Flying Enterprise, Ponmeoath, 33/1 Lankawi, Ollie Magern .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An Accordion is the one most obviously open to improvement but jumping smoothly round this track should prove more difficult for him and he has gone up 11lb for his Doncaster win in first-time blinkers. David Pipe has another very interesting runner in Abragante and a back-to-form King Harald looks solid each-way but a big fall in the weights makes this a good opportunity for L'AMI, who is well treated on his form here in November and extremely well in on what he was capable of in the previous two seasons.[RA]

5/1 the field tells you how competitive this is. A no play race for me at all -look how many are priced between 5/1 and 14/1 - a very constricted field and a bookies pay day.

If you wanted a fun involvement, again 7.8 the field allows us to back 7 horses and still profit.. You could leave the 7.8 priced horse out(An accordian) and chose the 8.4 (Patsy Hall), allowing you to back 8 horses to level stakes and still profit if one wins!


440
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Wonderkid, 9/2 Garde Champetre, 11/2 Heads Onthe Ground, 12/1 Le Duc, 14/1 Royal Auclair, 16/1 Florida Dream, Freneys Well, Ivoire De Beaulieu, 20/1 Casadei, Kilbeggan Blade, Never Compromise, 25/1 A New Story, 33/1 Bosham Mill, Native Jack, 40/1 Harrycone Lewis, 66/1 Mange Tout .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Enda Bolger has won eight of the 11 cross-country races staged on this course and is typically strong-handed. Garde Champetre is attractive at the weights but may well lack the stamina of Heads Onthe Ground, who looks sure to run his race again. However, the latter, in company with Royal Auclair, Ivoire De Beaulieu, Florida Dream, Le Duc and Freneys Well was easily outpaced by WONDERKID here in December and Tony Martin's gelding may well be up to defying an 11lb rise.[FC]

A real specialist's race -cross country over 3 miles 7 - this would be a happy hunting ground for Spot the difference .A great race to lay the fav and back the fav at a higher price in running.
Each way ,perhaps HEadsontheground - ultra consistent

520
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ashkazar, 7/2 River Liane, 11/1 Prince Erik, 12/1 Chapoturgeon, Crack Away Jack, Grand Schlem, 14/1 Harry Tricker, 20/1 Mamlook, Metaphoric, 25/1 Siege Of Ennis, 33/1 Squadron, Thousand Stars, 40/1 Callisto Moon, Chord, Zanir, 50/1 Hypnotic Vibes, Indian Spring, Sainte Kadette, 66/1 Bayonyx, Dal Cais, Mr Crystal, Silmi, Sivota, Western Point .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two horses well in front of the handicapper dominate the betting and may very well dominate the finish too. Preference for ASHKAZAR (nap) over River Liane is based around the fact that the Pipe horse has already proved he can do it in a big-field handicap and clearly in some style too, after Saturday's easy win off this mark in the Imperial Cup. The form of River Liane's easy Leopardstown win was boosted on Sunday and he has to be regarded as the clear pick of the opposition, with Grand Schlem best of the rest. [MCu]

Hooray - a 24 runner juvenile novices handicap hurdle - just the type of race we can retire on ----------NOT!

A quick look at the betting forecast (which is generally accurate at these big festivals) shows 2 clear market leaders in Ashkazar (winner 3 days ago at Sandown) and River Liane (another "talking horse" much heralded for his win and the manner of that win 9 days ago)

A simple level stakes dutch of the front 2 is the easiest angle in without going mental pouring over the form .

Each way alternatives are certainly there in a race of this type, and Chapturgeon may fit the bill.
I will dutch the first 2 here given the confidence and column inches these 2 have generated recently.

CHELTENHAM CONCLUSION

Highly competitive as you would expect - any rain may deteriorate ground as the card progresses - has Cheltenham been affected by the recent storm? We'll soon find out.
Personally I will take a cautious approach and with terrestrial coverage seek to make my target profit through in running betting rather than taking any opinion on one horse. That said, races like the last afford us an opportunity for level stakes dutching, as do some of the other bigger priced market leader races where we can back as many as 8 ,and if lucky enough to pick the winner, still profit. I treat the latter though more as fun bets to get an involvement in the race rather than as a serious profit maker.

SEDGEFIELD
Good to firm
215
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Drumnavaddy Lough, Reasonably Sure, 4/1 Prince Of Leisure, 5/1 La Reserve, 10/1 Napalm, 14/1 Jupsala, 20/1 Hurricane Basil, 33/1 Erte, Playboy Prince, 100/1 Toot Tootsie .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Drumnavaddy Lough and Reasonably Sure set the standard but neither is one to trust in a finish and a chance is taken on LA RESERVE, who seemed to run a little below expectations on his debut for these connections and kicks off over fences at a very low level Maiden chase - an each way angle in here? La Reserve is nestled just before the double figure prices and may be a good each way runner. SOUTHWELL 505 BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Minus Fifteen, 100/30 Jal Music, 11/2 Young Gladiator, 6/1 Swindon Town Flyer, 8/1 Fujin Dancer, 12/1 Fools Gold, 33/1 Moonage Daydream, One Way Love . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There were stronger maidens last year than the one MINUS FIFTEEN was third in at Doncaster but the opposition he faces here is hardly exacting and, assuming he handles the surface, he ought to get off the mark. Jal Music at 4/1 currently looks a decent enough each way alternative to the hot pot in this maiden 3 into 1 still affected by ground conditions which none of the systems warn about ( and they should!) 300 SOUTHWELL - COPPERBOTTOMED 540 SOUTHWELL - MAGICAL SONG FOOTY Predominantly Championship footy this evening and amazingly nearly all matches have been priced up similarly - 5/4 - 11/5 - 7/4 - are the odds compilers too busy watching Cheltenham? Standout game this evening is Liverpool away to Inter Milan. i will lay Liverpool at 1.28 to qualify -an in running market - any Inter goal to no reply will really increase the price for a tradeable profit - liability is very low affording us a good potential trade. Any Liverpool goal however should spell curtains for Inter. Inter must mirror Liverpool's anfield scoreline so the expectation here is for an all out attack. This should be defence against attacvk and the hope of a counter attacking away goal. 1.81 for under 2.5 goals in the early part of the match looks tradeable I think to get out after 20 minutes if it remains goalless. Barnsley at home again against Ipswich - time to lay them with the FA Cup hangover? Can we still oppose Luton in their current state - the 1/3 about Carlisle at home suggests so. Half time/full time Carlisle/Carlisle ; Draw/Carlisle ; Draw Draw may be the best angle in, with a ratio of £19 ; £8 ; £4 (or equivalent) repectively leaving break even on draw/draw

10 MARCH

Otage de Brion won for the dutch at Hereford, God's Token won for a break even, Quillan Hill won, Aces Four was obviously fancied but didn't perform.

Naas was good for me with the trading out of lays in running despite some favourites obliging.
Harringay won at unappealing prices in a 2 horse race.
Tisfreetdream was slashed in price given the non runners and placed at 13/8.
Unders came in the Boro game - I had to just bite my tongue and hope -the game didn't really go as expected - I was expecting a tight affair with Boro finding it difficult to score while keeping their opponents out but Cardiff decided to score early to ensure I couldn't trade out.

Celtic saved the halftime/full time dutch in the 90th odd minute for a break even on draw\draw.
RAngers broke even on the asians with only the one goal.

Everton won at 6/5 . Sevilla decided to still win but not score first. I was confident in an equaliser at least which came and restored odds to near those at which I backed Sevilla - they got the 2nd which enabled me to trade out for a green screen.

Mug Punter acca came in thanks to the Celtic late equaliser.2.32 was very reasonable.

Soft, heavy in placed at Plumpton
Ground may deteriorate as the day goes on so I won't be betting here. Already this looks a card to lay the top listed on Betfair and get out with a predetermined loss or a profit. Bet ie software actually has a stop loss facility which I will try to master as this could help this particular system although I must say BEt ie , to me, is not at all user friendly

STRATFORD
210
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Norman The Great, 11/4 Light Yield, 11/2 Fredo, 12/1 Sharp Dresser, Western Point, 14/1 Kanonkop, 16/1 Proper, Right Option, 33/1 Lay The Cash, 50/1 Born West, Etoile D´Or, 66/1 Dar Es Salaam, Lagavulin .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NORMAN THE GREAT fell a little short of expectations last time but the form should still be good enough to enable him to open his account over hurdles. Old rival Light Yield looks the main threat.

A number of non runners has exacerbated the price difference betwen those most likely and the perceived outsiders.
This can enable 2 angles - one being the each way angle and the other a level stakes dutch
I will opt for the latter and include Norman the GReat, Light Yield and Fredo
At current prices of 2.26, 4.5 and 5. 9 backing to a ratio of £14, £9, £7 ensures break even on Norman

240

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Valley Ride, 2/1 Down´s Folly, 4/1 Scotland Yard, Sternenzelt, 50/1 Astral Dram, 66/1 Ellies Horse .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This race may come a bit soon for Down's Folly and it may be worth siding with VALLEY RIDE, who was rated 18lb superior over hurdles, on his chasing debut.[FC]

With Valley Ride out Downs Folly is now the fav, but I would prefer to abck Scotland Yard and Sternenzelt - they are near enough price wise to the favourite for us to presume they will give the fav some rivalry

340
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Native Coral, 11/2 Cash King, 8/1 Inaro, 9/1 It´s Blue Chip, Pretty Star, 10/1 Baodai, 14/1 Bermuda Pointe, Black De Bessy, No Complaint, 16/1 Master D´Or, 25/1 Craven, 33/1 Desert Tommy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cash King will no doubt be placed to advantage at some stage, but the one to beat looks to be NATIVE CORAL (nap) after a demolition job over hurdles at Musselburgh in January

Potential price gapper. As that annoying Loyd Grossman would say " Lets look at the evidence" - reasonable betting forecast price gap -top RPR - 10 tips - winner last time out in extremely convincing fashion - familiar jockey -"the one to beat looks to be..." "demolition job ...in January"- not extremely positive -ok at the distance and the class.

NEGATIVES -2 miles 7 allows mistakes to happen

One to chance for me with an eye on monitoring in the live betting

Soft ground at Taunton leaves me wanting to avoid the meeting

3 into 1
2 winners albeit at silly odds and a non runner.

230 PLUMPTON -Bucklands Gold
300 PLUMPTON - Artmaddy


FOOTY
Pleasing day yesterday with a couple of skin of your teeth successes - thanks must go to Boro for not being able to score in a brothel and for Celtic to score, as per usual late on
Ladies internationals dominate the card and I am not touching these-I would probably approach them from a laying the shorty angle but can do without .
Nantes in action tonight at home. Le Havre won recently, Troyes won their last game - Nantes must win tonight to keep tabs at the top of Ligue 2 or the words " Zut alors" will be echoing through the changing room!
If we look at comparitive opposition for Grenoble -they drew 0-0 with Le Havre at Le Havre which is a reasonable results.
The odds suggesst this will be a tight affair too. I will look to back Nantes despite the draw being only 2/1

FOOTY Lesson from yesterday - FA CUP matches, if looked as as betting mediums, could be better approached with a neutral bet First game of interest is Celtic's away to Aberdeen. Celtic's last 2 games away have been not too confident for backers - last minute at St Mirren and 2nd half goals against Hibs. BUT this is the Scottish Cup -the last head to head was 5-1 to Celtic. If we look at Rangers performance against Aberdeen, 3-1 may give us a way into today's match. Half time/ Full time Celtic/Celtic ; Draw/Celtic ;Draw /Draw (cup game!) I will break even this time on the DRaw/Draw Boro match today and an under 2.5 goal trade looks a good angle in . .Leaving a neutral bet like this looks the best option with all the surprises in the FA Cup. Everton at 6/5 look big against Sunderland and worthy of support to trade off if Everton score the first goal Hibs held Celtic til half time at their place but are away to Rangers in the Scottish Cup. I expect Rangers to win by 1 or 2. RAngers -1.5 goves us a nice payout if they win by 2, and a break even if they win by 1 Remember these are Cup games ,so if you want to leave these Scottish games alone, please do (more surprises?) Back Sevilla before the game and lay off if they score first ( which they should do - they are at home) MUG PUNTER ACCA 1 Aberdeen v Celtic (Laying Aberdeen @ 8.08) 2 Rangers v Hibernian (Laying Hibernian @ 14.5) 3 Sunderland v Everton (Laying Sunderland @ 3.78) 4 Sevilla v Levante (Backing Sevilla @ 1.23) 5 Wigan v Arsenal (Laying Wigan @ 8.62) 5-Folds Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1,2,3,4 and 5 2.32 £100.00 £132.00 The Sunderland game will be the problem game here as Sunderland MUST win. Everton too, will regain 4th if they win. Interesting that Bet365 have chalked up Newcastle United to win the Championship next season. This may be worth a shilling - first hurdle - Newcastle to get relegated.

9 mARCH

Only one favourite obliged at Ayr, and concerted laying to trade would have made a great profit. In fact, this is something I tried yesterday - lay the first named in the betfair list ( may or may not be the market favourite) ,and green up at a predetermined profit or lay off for a predetermined loss. Using fairbot this is a cinch as it has a tracking green up facility.

Good 2nd for Gentle Ranger -he was at least competitive while returning stakes for each way backers

Dutch lost at Sandown but break even on Takeroc. Slight loss on Ten Down who won and was the only winner for the 3 into 1 system .Again 2 runners at Ayr and I would not have bet them in the heavy ground.

Bayern won both halves and over 2.5 goal trading was ok with a 64th minute 2nd goal allowing trading.

Southend won to exacerbate Luton's problems. Thank you Liverpool for a bit more consistency and Torres scores again to bring home the money.

And now the bad news - loss on the day for me with Chelsea crushed by the Barnsley boys and Man Utd beaten by Portsmouth in a match they should really have walked.

This I suppose shows the value of staking plans and not putting your eggs in one basket - remember the adage - there is no such thing as a sure thing!.

The FA Cup leads me to thinking along the line of neutral bets in all remaining fixtures rather than taking an opinion on a specific team.

Mug punter acca scuppered alas, but the mug punter will be back!

A losing day for me but interesting to lay market leaders consistently in all races and trade in running to green up or create a predetermined loss if the price shortens. I will definitely try it out some more and get a strategy nailed for you. Short races are probably not worth including in this strategy - 3 milers are ideal as , in one example, a horse I laid at 4, went out to 12 in running allowing me to green up AND HE WENT ON AND WON!. On a Saturday, which you saw again was bookies benefit day, this strategy is ideal.

HEREFORD

225

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Otage De Brion, 7/4 Tampa Boy, 4/1 Maremotto, 16/1 Go Go, Heezagrey, 33/1 Pipers Legend, 50/1 Fine Edge, Son Of Samson, Sure Flame, 100/1 Come On Jim .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAMPA BOY and Otage De Brion stand out and the former's more fluent hurdling might well settle the issue

A 3 horse race but how to approach it?

Dutching the front 3 to level stakes leaves only a profit on Maremotto.

Naturally 2 of these 3 will lose. Backing the 2 named in Spotlight to level stakes produces a better profit and the hope is one of these 2 can overcome Maremotto.

325

God's Token should win, but I'd like to ensure i don't lose if he wins, while being in with a chance of a nice payout should there be a shock.

GODS TOKEN - 1.4 back for £26 stake to win £0.38

BEESNEEZ - 11 back for £5 to win £18.05

ORREZZO - 11 back for £5 to win £18.05

(at current prices)

MARKET RASEN

245

ETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Quillan Hill, 4/1 Just Shove It, 7/1 Amber Warrior, Lucinda Lamb, 8/1 Bal Birnie, Tide Slider, 14/1 Buckshaw, 25/1 Oswie, 50/1 Treefella, 66/1 Rhine Rewler,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks easier than the race QUILLAN HILL won here last weekend and he can follow up under a penalty. Just Shove It is an interesting newcomer while Lucinda Lamb should not be ignored receiving plenty of weigh

Possible price gapper. Spotlight says "will be very hard to beat" with a reproduction of latest run. No ground concerns, top RPR, postdata selection, price gap enhanced in the live market. Runs under a penalty this time and worthy of support I think - personally I will monitor.

415

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Coq Hardi, 11/2 Willies Way, 7/1 Keen Warrior, 12/1 Aces Four, Mr Shambles, 14/1 Michaels Dream, 16/1 Wicked Nice Fella, 33/1 Cottam Grange.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he is having his first run over this trip, COQ HARDI, who confirmed previous promise when stolling home at Bangor last time, is going to take all the beating with just a 7lb penalty. Willies Way, from the in-form Sue Smith yard, looks his main threat

THe straight 8 here - can we approach from each way betting? Keen warrior ,just before the double figure horses, is the obvious candidate. BUT . why is Aces Four now 4/1 in the early market - possible stable gamble and possible expectation of a good run and worth supporting I think

Naas looks a good card with which to lay the top named in the Betfair market and trade in running, either for a predetermined loss, or if the price rises, for a green up screen

305 WARWICK

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Theatre Diva, 2/1 Harringay, 4/1 Marvellous Dream, 10/1 Colline De Fleurs, 12/1 Ellway Prospect .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Theatre Diva is preferred to Marvellous Dream of the penalised pair but this could be the day that HARRINGAY finally delivers over fences, as for once both the ground - granted no significant rain - and trip look right

3 non runners here leaving a 2 horse race and Harringay at 1/3 is against Ellway Prospect, the 12/1 chance.
1.33 is reasonable enough. Of course you can go for the 3/1 shot and monitor in running.

335
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Theatre Dance, 3/1 Go Amwell, 4/1 Plein Pouvoir, 10/1 Tisfreetdream, 25/1 Kentford Mist, 33/1 Anacrusis, 100/1 Themanfrommayo, 200/1 Archenemee, Impero, Overton Lad .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was plenty to like about the Fontwell win of THEATRE DANCE (nap) last month and he'll find this company somewhat easier than in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon last time.[GW]

Tisfreetdream each way here with Plein Pouvoir a non runner

FOOTY Lesson from yesterday - FA CUP matches, if looked as as betting mediums, could be better approached with a neutral bet First game of interest is Celtic's away to Aberdeen. Celtic's last 2 games away have been not too confident for backers - last minute at St Mirren and 2nd half goals against Hibs. BUT this is the Scottish Cup -the last head to head was 5-1 to Celtic. If we look at Rangers performance against Aberdeen, 3-1 may give us a way into today's match. Half time/ Full time Celtic/Celtic ; Draw/Celtic ;Draw /Draw (cup game!) I will break even this time on the DRaw/Draw Boro match today and an under 2.5 goal trade looks a good angle in . .Leaving a neutral bet like this looks the best option with all the surprises in the FA Cup. Everton at 6/5 look big against Sunderland and worthy of support to trade off if Everton score the first goal Hibs held Celtic til half time at their place but are away to Rangers in the Scottish Cup. I expect Rangers to win by 1 or 2. RAngers -1.5 goves us a nice payout if they win by 2, and a break even if they win by 1 Remember these are Cup games ,so if you want to leave these Scottish games alone, please do (more surprises?) Back Sevilla before the game and lay off if they score first ( which they should do - they are at home) MUG PUNTER ACCA 1 Aberdeen v Celtic (Laying Aberdeen @ 8.08) 2 Rangers v Hibernian (Laying Hibernian @ 14.5) 3 Sunderland v Everton (Laying Sunderland @ 3.78) 4 Sevilla v Levante (Backing Sevilla @ 1.23) 5 Wigan v Arsenal (Laying Wigan @ 8.62) 5-Folds Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1,2,3,4 and 5 2.32 £100.00 £132.00 The Sunderland game will be the problem game here as Sunderland MUST win. Everton too, will regain 4th if they win. Interesting that Bet365 have chalked up Newcastle United to win the Championship next season. This may be worth a shilling - first hurdle - Newcastle to get relegated.

8 MARCH

The Bajan Bandit won, only just and I was able to monitor and get out of the lay with a 0.10 point loss ....but Armaturk 's lay went like clockwork - Hunter CHase, unknown jockey, and poor recent form made this a great lay
In media res was pulled up.
Frustrating 4th for Visconte for each way backers

No real chance for Truckers Lady, the 3 into 1 system selection in very heavy ground at Ayr - if there is a selection at Ayr today, I won't be betting it given the ground.
Nice win for Le Havre
AYR
THe ground was terrible yesterday with slow motion finishes so a concerted lay of short priced favourites may be an option here - it's certainly not a backer's card
USing the racing post betting forecast favourites, it will be interesting to see how they fare.

CHEPSTOW
230
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 West End Rocker, 100/30 Gentle Ranger, 4/1 Bold Punt, 13/2 Herons Well, 11/1 Gargallo, Notabotheronme, 20/1 Chase The Dawn, Kentford Mist, 22/1 Chevy To The Levy, Sir Pandy, 25/1 July Johnson, 28/1 Live The Life, 40/1 Zaffarani´s Star, 66/1 Alfie Atkins, Tallow Road, Tel Nero .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A trio of last-time-out Irish point winners, the most interesting being Gentle Ranger, mean market reference should be useful. However, WEST END ROCKER (nap) has already achieved a reasonable level of form over hurdles, including over 2m4f here in November and then over this trip of 3m at Taunton last time, so he is preferred. [MCu]

gentle RAnger for the Pipe team looks a decent each way alternative to the now odds on favourite
3 milers and conditional jockeys races make this a bookies benefit card

SANDOWN
240
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Beau Michel, 5/2 Without A Doubt, 4/1 Mokum, 8/1 Bowleaze, Turthen, 9/1 Bubble Boy.
Non runners may open this up to BEau Michel and Without a doubt - both are backeable, or stakes can be altered to leave a break even on one.
Alternatively the place only market on Beau Michel ( 2 the place) may be worthy of support

425
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Takeroc, 5/2 Gentle John, 3/1 Wogan, 6/1 Etoile Russe.
Again level stakes on the front 2 on betfair leaves break even on Takeroc and nice profit on Gentle John.

WOLVES
410
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ten Down, 5/2 Wee Buns, 4/1 Kamal, 25/1 Arkando, Yattendon.
Level stakes on the front 2 leaves a nice payout for Wee Bunns and slight loss on Ten Down who has been winning in his turn but may be vulnerable

3 INTO 1

240 Sandown	Without a doubt
250 Ayr	Brandy Wine
400 Ayr	Something silver
410 Wolves	Ten down

FOOTY

A packed programme kicks off as Man Utd take on portsmouth at Old Trafford. 1/3 is a fair reflection of United's chances. Again it looks like Half time /Full time United/United and Draw/United will give us a good run for our money. With my computer on the go slow alas I cannot check the full betfair markets.

Bayern will be rolling after their midweek demolition of Anderlecht and again, half time/full time Bayern/Bayern and Draw/Bayern will enhance the 2/9
Over 2.5 goals may be a good trading option given thee attacking options and return to fitness of Ribery

Liverpool, as I said in an earlier blog, look to be playing to their price, and it could be more of the same today at 4/11. Newcastle will win eventually but look very disjointed.
Torres to score is just evens but worth support to enhance the 4/11 match odds.

Southend at home at 1/2 may be worth supporting against the hatters in tatters

barnesly's FA CUP dream should come to a shuddering halt this evening ( famous last words) and Chelsea to win by 2 or 3 in the winning margin market / asian handiap market should bring them back down to earth.

MUG PUNTER ACCA

1	Man Utd v Portsmouth (Backing Man Utd @ 1.31)
2	B Munich v Karlsruhe (Backing B Munich @ 1.27)
3	East Fife v Albion (Laying Albion @ 14.61)
4	Liverpool v Newcastle (Laying Newcastle @ 14.08)
5	Southend v Luton (Laying Luton @ 7.02)
6	Inter v Reggina (Laying Reggina @ 47.9)
7	Barnsley v Chelsea (Backing Chelsea @ 1.29)

7-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7	2.96	£39.00	£76.44

Limited stakes on this but we'll get a good run for our money - potential problems with Inter/East fife

7 march

Ballyvoge placed for each way bettors, Prince Broc placed for a marginal gain at 12/1 for each way backers, Dr Hart won for the dutch, and it was a race too many for Asiatic Boy. Key words for Rosy Cyborg - monitor in running. I actually created a risk free profit on Rosy Cyborg only for the horse to come 2nd. The value of always getting into the habit of greening up and spreading the profit. Jim Edwards placed.
Green gamble at 9/4 and DAnetime lord at 7/4 made it 2 from 3 ( Karanja was far too short to entertain a bet - and lost to boot!) for the 3 into 1 system - some semblance of a recovery - short lasting or will it continue?


Bayern won very convincingly helped by an Anderlecht red card. Unders trading would have been successful in the Rangers bet as the first goal wasn't scored until the 45th minute. For those just betting, final score 2-0 was great. The lay of Bolton hit a rocky patch with Bolton scoring but Sporting grabbed an equaliser making for a nice football night

AYR

HEavy ground at Ayr makes this a no bet contest unless something obvious is lurking in the card

520
Lay the Bajan Bandit given the heavy ground and the fact this is the last race on the card? At 1/5 liability is negligible and over jumps anything can happen (ask Karanja!) -to monitor in running and hopefully trade out at a higher price

DUNDALK

Irish flat season in its infancy here at the all weather track
Nothing appeals though and I feel the market will be key to determining any selections

LEICESTER
510
Armaturk, again at 2/5 is worthy lay material in a hunters chase. He looks nailed on to win but then so was Thisthatandtother at 1/8 in a hunter chase.
I don't expect the lay to come off but will take advantage of any rise in price during the race

SANDOWN
350
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Mendosino, 5/1 In Media Res, Soixante, Very Cool, 10/1 Tisseman, 14/1 Kristoffersen, 16/1 Lease Back, 20/1 Cardozer, Legally Fast .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mendosino is officially 7lb well in but he meets another potentially well-handicapped horse in IN MEDIA RES, whose third off 6lb higher at Newbury two years ago makes very solid reading. He should be hard to beat if returning in the same for

"hard to beat" - perhaps In MEdia Res is worthy of each way support to break even if he places but take advantage if indeed he is well handicapped.

850 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Cybersnow, 13/8 Wannabe Free, 8/1 Visconte, 14/1 Cyril The Squirrel, 16/1 Brave Bugsy, 50/1 Fortuitous, Hatter´s Way, Honkey Tonk Tony, Mollie Blackburn ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Irish raider CYBERSNOW showed enough in his two runs for Amanda Perrett to think he had races in him and with Smooth Sovereign now an absentee, this may not take much winning.[PSm]

Visconte is an obvious each way candidate here

3 INTO 1 - 2 welcome winners yesterday and a horse that was a no bet as far too short
230 Ayr - Truckers Lady - Heavy ground to contend with here at Ayr but the systems don't really mention ground conditions so let's hope the Lady trucks on

FOOTY

Another good night yesterday but I could have been a bit more adventurous regarding Bayern! - Oh the value of hindsight.

The ladies are out in force today but I won't be partaking having enjoyed, ahem, the ladies league Cup.
Le Havre look worth a chance at 8/15 at home to consilidate themselves as one of the main players in ligue 2 and get back lost points against Troyes last week

6 march

I must have got a bang on the head yesterday dutching in a hunter chase! Alderluck won at Fontwell in a race where the dutch with Vodka Brook was on - these fecking multiple winning handicappers - you lay them and they win - you back them and they lose - so it was with Silca Destination - again for those able to follow the live betting, the clues were in the market and did not replicate the 10/11 in the RAcing Post
Ten Down was the 3 into 1 selection - another coming into the race on the back of a hatrick of wins -an unlucky 2nd at 2/1

Liverpool look o be returning to trustworthy betting proposition status if recent days have been anything to go by. A small lay at 1.44 was blown out of the water by Torres.
No problem with the Chelsea bets, and clean sheet, although winning margins were undone by the 3rd.

Airdrie 3-0 for the overs bet ( no ability to trade here)

Again as has been a habit of late, all the money I make seems to be from the football with the pre Cheltenham racing proving unbettable really.

CARLISLE - SOFT GROUND
240

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Overserved, 4/1 Monolith, 5/1 Ballyvoge, 6/1 Cash Man, Rothbury, 12/1 Mongorno, 33/1 Im So Lonely, 66/1 Lord Samposin, 100/1 Sammy Spiderman .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have suggested they can find races over fences, including Monolith and Ballyvoge, but OVERSERVED has been thriving in recent weeks and will be hard to beat if taking to the larger obstacles.[SR]

9 in contention - 3 at 33/1 or over bringing the field down to 6. Overserved a potential price gapper ( would prefer bigger price gap) - "will be hard to beat if..." - but I can approach this each way.
Ballyvoge for me - 3rd in betting forecast. Preference for place only with a bit on the win

LINGFIELD
230
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Laredo Sound, 2/1 Pascha Bere, 100/30 Prince Broc, 14/1 Hareem, Sir Liam, 20/1 Noble Minstrel, 25/1 Bollywood, 50/1 Jimmytheblacksmith, 100/1 Baron Brookdale .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Laredo Sound and Prince Broc are respected opponents but PASCHA BERE got the job done with some authority at Folkestone and this could be a stepping stone to something better for Nick Gifford's youngster.[AWJ]

3 definite tiers
Tier 1 - Laredo, Pascha, PRince
Tier 2 - Hareem, Sir
Tier 3 - Noble onwards

A number of options here - straight each way on Prince Broc
You could back Prince Broc and Hareem to place - 2.14 and 3 the odds-slight profit if one places
Or a straight dutch on Laredo and Pascha.

At the odds, each way on PRince Broc is the best value option - 2.14 to place and 10.5 for the win. (concern though that the 10.5 does not replicate the 10/3 betting forecast price)

305
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Stolen Moments, 5/2 Supreme Cara, 11/4 Dr Hart, 8/1 Palmers Peak, 12/1 Cunning Pursuit, 20/1 The Speaker, 100/1 Brasilia Prince, Ushnu, 200/1 Homeleighwildchild, Shikoku Lass .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Drying ground might not see Supreme Cara in the best light and STOLEN MOMENTS (nap) is much preferred, as he's done very little wrong in two defeats over fences and deserves another chance. Dr Hart is comfortably best of the res

5 horse race? Odds for Cunning Pursuit are 40/.1 early market and odds for the Speaker 14/1 early market - some price discrepanncies with the betting forecaster.

I will chance the dutch here on the front 3 - prices currently are 2.3, 4.8, 5.3 and stakes for me of £14, £8, and £8 leave marginal gains on Stolen Moments -this is a 3 mile event.

Not a nailed on dutch because of the price discrepancies talked about earlier and the proximity of Palmers Peak

515 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Asiatic Boy, 7/2 Blackat Blackitten, 7/1 Watch What Happens, 10/1 Green Coast, Marbush, 14/1 Drift Ice, Elusive Warning, 20/1 Roman´s Run, 25/1 Boston Lodge, Jet Express, 33/1 Beckermet, Brave Tin Soldier, Halkin, 66/1 Etihaad .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Blackat Blackitten has shown a fine attitude to face up to the kickback and to respond to pressure when winning twice over C&D. However he's faced nothing of the calibre of ASIATIC BOY and it's the latter that is taken to preserve his unbeaten record on dirt, despite conceding weight all round. His reappearance run told us little new about him but he should be spot on and will be well suited by the return to this trip. He'll have to win this in style to justify his position near the head of the Dubai World Cup market Always worth backing horses that HAVE to win like Asiatic Boy 350 THURLES BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Rosy Cyborg, 6/1 Anyaab, 8/1 Moustic, 10/1 Praetorian, 12/1 Follow The Plan, 14/1 My Boy Bobby, 20/1 Aileen Supreme, Alis Choice, Nano, 25/1 Catch Twenty Two, Fayread, Fly Home Cassy, My Light, 33/1 Brokeback Ocean, Captain Sirus, Fosters Bank, Rio Divo, Tellmethisnow , SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROSY CYBORG looks clearly superior to these rivals. Better ground should suit the Willie Mullins-trained gelding, for whom it may have been on the soft side when he was a creditable third behind the improving Shazand and last season's Champion Bumper second Sophocles on his hurdling debut at Gowran in November. He beat the useful Cait Ni Chaonaigh first time out in a Sligo bumper last May and followed up in a Killarney event in which useful yardstick Made In Taipan was third.\n Another Willie Mullins mare heads another big fields market - 2 from 3 have won recently and Rosy Cyborg ,if confident in the betting market, is worth following to trade in running WINCANTON 255 BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Atouchbetweenacara, 9/2 Comber, Jim Edwards, 6/1 Tosula, 10/1 Kedgeree, 14/1 Great Character, 16/1 Hydromatic, Kilrogan . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ATOUCHBETWEENACARA (nap) scored in good style on his chasing debut on Sunday and looks capable of defying a penalty, possibly at the main expense of Jim Edwards.[FC JimEdwards each way looks ideally placed to take advantage should the penalty find the fav out 3 INTO 1 SELECTIONS 255 Wincanton - A touch between acara 400 Wincanton - Karanja 440 Lingfield - Green gamble 720 Wolves - Danetime Lord FOOTBALL Difficult UEFA Cup matches this evening. If Bayern Munich are going to cememnt their placing as favourites for the competition they will have to get a result away at Anderlecht. Half time/full time on Bayern/Bayern ; Draw/Bayern and Draw /Draw looks worth entertaining - to level stakes we get a nice return on the draw results and a break even on Bayern/Bayern The RAcing Post make a convincing argument for the under 2.5 goals trade in the Rangers/Werder game and I may go along with this. I will lay Bolton this evening with one eye on trading against a good Sporting Lisbon - where are Bolton going to get the goal from?

5 MARCH

The racing Gods decided to smile on a 3 into 1 selection yesterday - SP 4/5 against Super Baby and Married in a race of non runners, Silver Sedge fairly sluced up -MORE PLEASE RACING GODS!
The speculation on the 2 biggies went awry ( as expected really) as Nevada Royale was imperious but I know from experience that one day the shortie will fall and I'll clean up - this way my losses are, let's face it, negligible but I still retain the ability to profit should the unexpected happen (and it does!)
3rd place for the gangerman produced a marginal profit thanks to the 2.5 for the place

I hate to tell myself that I told me so but " I told me so!" - I'm a legend - 5th place in a big field amateur riders handicap - screamed out "lay" at 11/10 but did old muggins here lay - no he didn't!

Noble Alan won the clash at Newcastle - another negligible loss in the hope of a greater return elsewhere - remember Dodaa yesterday - NICE profits when it comes off

Mr Chocolate Drop not even fav at Wolves and ,being flexible, I left the race alone because ,as a multiple handicapper running again, he drifted and drifted - no hatrick so the price told us, and so it was

NB Denbera Dancer was NOT a 3 into 1 selection yesterday - just Silver Sedge

Ahhh - the value of trading - I profitted from over 2.5 goals in the Barcelona match thanks to a 3 minute goal leaving market makers thinking this was going to be a goal fest - a full .30 drop in price enough for me to green up - and the game finished 1-0!

Slight loss Half time/full time -3 minute goal was a killer for the first goal odds - I did predict a very tight game but the tight game came after the 3rd minute goal. Still it was only a predetermined stake so profits elsewhere compensated

Well done Man Utd, -got the half time/full time, Ronny scoring -slight profit as I backed Rooney too - and a nice clean sheet at 1.91 - good price

Incidentally I came across a piece of news regarding Ross County on the Betfair Forum - Cowdenbeath without 7 first team players meant the 1.34 looked like a gimme -and so it proved with a 4-1 win. It pays to react to late news be it on a forum, a team's website or the Sporting Press.

CATTERICK
450
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Luksar, 4/1 Belem Ranger, 12/1 Beau De Turgeon, Linlithgow Lad, Oaklands Luis, Shanteen Lass, 16/1 Nectar De Guye, Sandy Gold, Shapani, Tommy Two Toes, 20/1 River Trapper, 25/1 Oaklands Ted ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Belem Ranger improved to win a Musselburgh hunter chase and will be well handled but the concession of 5lb to LUKSAR may be beyond him. The selection should appreciate the likely strong pace and is well worth this first crack at regulation fences after getting his eye in with a couple of point victories this year.

A hunter chase is perhaps not the ideal betting medium but with Rose Davidson in such spectacular form, we can chance a dutch on Luksar and Belem ranger

FONTWELL

Soft ground so caution advised

500

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Vodka Brook, 7/4 Another Display, 9/2 Alderluck, 10/1 Never Lost, 14/1 How Are You Going, 20/1 Absolute Shambles, 50/1 Cinderbanks, 100/1 Jumpthequw .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Likely Vodka Brook will make a bold bid to make it third time lucky, but he could have bumped into a smart one in ANOTHER DISPLAY who has created a reallly good impression in Irish points.[AC]

Another DisplaY'S absence opens this race up well for Vodka Brook ?

410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Silca Destination, 9/2 Talamahana, 8/1