Tuesday 28 August 2007

28 AUG

A great day yesterday with a 14/1 winner and som places for the each ways.
Again the price gaps picked a few winners - you'll notice the ones that failed - I did have a question mark whether it was weight or some other factor.
EACH WAY BETS
245 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Champagne Shadow, 7/2 Turner´s Touch, 9/2 Noora, 6/1 Musango, 7/1 Stagehand, 10/1 Trifti, 14/1 Looks The Business, 20/1 Ariodante, Port ´n Starboard, 33/1 Rainbow Flame, 66/1 Alqaayid, Endless Night, Haneen.

Another lovely claimer -a chance for outsiders in Musango and looks the business each way

230 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Jenny Soba, 5/1 Prince Noel, 11/2 Moonlight Fantasy, Ranavalona, 13/2 Leprechaun´s Gold, 8/1 Remark, 10/1 Anything Once, Lewis Lloyd, 14/1 Hogan´s Heroes, 20/1 Boucheen, 25/1 Arabellas Homer, Musette, 33/1 Miss Lovat, 66/1 Danehill Warrior, Nortelco, 100/1 Night Reveller.

7 priced 20/1 or over - I'm going to opt for the middle horses of those left - Leprachauns gold and Anything Once each way

PRICE GAPS
415 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Palmetto Point, 7/1 Botham, Straight Face, Withywood, 8/1 Candyland, 9/1 Run For Ede´S, 10/1 Ella Y Rossa, 14/1 Mariaverdi, 25/1 Hannahbecc, Rangali Belle, 33/1 Ponte Vecchio ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Potentially a lively market with reasons to anticipate improved efforts from Straight Face, Botham and Withywood, but PALMETTO POINT (nap) has more concrete claims and may still be a step ahead of the handicapper. Straight Face could pose most problems.[FC]

Palmetto Point - great price gap here

445 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Back In The Red, 4/1 Luck Will Come, 5/1 Shaded Edge, 12/1 Lord Of The Reins, 14/1 Fast Freddie, 16/1 Polish Prize, 20/1 Darling Belinda, Emma Jean Lad, 25/1 Futuristic Dragon, Victory Spirit, 33/1 Golden Brown, Ten For Tosca .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many that can be strongly fancied with the main question being whether Back On The Red can reproduce his recent improved 5f performances on turf under today's different conditions. If he can he will take plenty of beating despite his 12lb penalty, but an interesting alternative is the quietly progressive SHADED EDGE who did well to overcome the outside stall when off the mark over C&D last time.[AC]

An interesting example of one where there are question marks and "ifs"

330 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Emerald Wilderness, 5/1 Goodbye Mr Bond, 8/1 Southern Regent, 10/1 Symbol Of Peace, 12/1 Suits Me, 14/1 Go Tech, Hartshead, Little Jimbob, Snowed Under, 16/1 Harvest Warrior, Vicious Warrior, 25/1 Orpen Wide .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Emerald Wilderness has a slight question mark about his ability to settle after racing at shorter last time and it might be worth chancing the prolific Indian winner SOUTHERN REGENT on his debut for a crack yard under a rider who has a good record for the trainer. Goodbye Mr Bond looks most solid of the others.[EMW]

Good enough price gap but the write up is hardly convincing

505 SLIGO
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Linsalata, 9/2 Hollow Hill, 6/1 Rivoletto, Summer Capers, 8/1 Miranda´s Girl, 12/1 So Serene, 14/1 Contepomi, Imperial Belle, 16/1 Black Burn Dreamer, Bye Bye Rio, 20/1 Libertys Day, Little Grain, Longmeadow, Vitosha .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LINSALATA is difficult to oppose having got off the mark on her third start when winning over 7f at Leopardstown last month. She represents a stable very much in form and had shown promise on her debut when third behind the high class Myboycharlie at the Curragh.\n
The form of her Leopardstown win received a boost when the runner-up, Wrong Number, won at Tralee last week and Jim Bolger's filly can carry her penalty to victory here at the expense of Hollow Hill, who showed good improvement from her debut effort to finish a creditable third in 7f maiden won by Unquenchable Fire at Gowran Park last month.\n

Another price gap

535 SLIGO
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Wildwish, 11/2 Arcelie, 8/1 Calm Lad, Our Little Cub, Rusky Dusky, 10/1 Kazakstan, Miracle Ridge, 12/1 Kilcusnin Queen, 14/1 Leonards Girl, Mama Angela, Nathan Jones, 16/1 Thornfield Clo, 20/1 Banal Song, Bers Treasure, Chapter Eight ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WILDWISH is by far the highest rated contender for this claimer and, while the daughter of Alhaarth is returning from an 86-day break, she looks the one to beat despite slight reservations abour her low draw(3).

Another exmple of a factor which may get in the way of the horse winning despite an excellent price gap


FOOTY

An excellent night for trading tonight, with the Carling Cup games and Champions league - I will be backing Birmingham tonight to lay off after the first goal ditto with Wolves and Liverpool tonight against Toulouse. I expect Liverpool to keep it tight at Anfield and will chance a Liverpool win to nil this evening

All in all a poor days racing and probably better to take the day off



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