Sunday 26 August 2007

26 AUG

1st each way bet comes in at 11/1 -better odds on BEtfair - it would be wise, as I've said before to stop if you hit a biggie early on, because we are dealing with speculative bets. A case of near misses with many 4th placeers and a neck 4th at 20/1 which would have been a juicy place only payout on Betfair. The price gap bets generally placed apart from Ivy Creek. My one selection for the win, Sense of Joy, came in well. I hope you left Majority alone - a lay if ever their was one - 20+ runner field and a debuatant.
EACH WAY BETS
200 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Stop On, 4/1 Keenes Day, Transmission, 5/1 The Riddler, 7/1 Thunderstruck, 16/1 Barawin, Elk Trail, 20/1 Destinys Dream.
Thunderstruck for me here may be competitive for the place
235 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Smash N´Grab, 5/1 Pennyrock, 7/1 Captain Nemo, Davaye, 10/1 Bunderos, Lady Valentino, Myfrenchconnection, 20/1 Tenterhooks, 25/1 Cherri Fosfate, Didactic, Mister Always, Prince Noel, 33/1 First Valentini, Flushed, Mandy´s Maestro, 40/1 Sahara Dawn.

A claimer and Bunderos and Lady valentino each way
415 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Muqadam, 11/8 Evening Affair, 12/1 Musical Land, 20/1 Mounafes, 33/1 Hits Only Vic, Whodunit, 66/1 Any Offer.

Only 2 the place but Musical Land is very speculative and the hope is one of the market leaders doesn't run their race
245 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/2 Plucky, 6/1 Nice To Know, 13/2 Furbeseta, 7/1 Apple Blossom, 8/1 Millestan, 9/1 Ficoma, 10/1 Gentle Guru, 12/1 Pretty Majestic, Princess Valerina, Zonta Zitkala, 16/1 Gap Princess, Kashmir Lady, Shustraya, 25/1 Bluebelle Dancer, Regal Quest .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plucky and Apple Blossom, unexposed types from respected stables, are both quite interesting but in an otherwise open race NICE TO KNOW makes plenty of appeal. She won with any amount in hand on her first run this yard and, while she may be a bit of a madam, she has the right man on board in Ryan Moore to harness her ability.[DH]

An open race says Spotlight - I'll ignore the first 5 and opt for Ficoma and Gentle guru eachw ay
150 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ibn Khaldun, 7/2 Street Star, 6/1 Ancien Regime, 10/1 Fairmont, 12/1 Baunagain, 14/1 Bury Treasure, Payne Relief, Peas In A Pod, 16/1 Minwir, 20/1 Regal Veil, 33/1 Faber Hall Flyer, Moss Way.

Many debutants - again 3rd and 5th for me - Ancien regime and Baunagain

WIN/PLACE BETS
305 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Make Haste, 6/1 Baan, Edas, Pretty Demanding, 10/1 Dee Cee Elle, 14/1 Fenners, Its Moon, Jack Of Trumps, 16/1 Nelsons Column, 20/1 Rosie´s Glory, 25/1 Boppys Dancer, Zefooha.

Something of a price gap but not really stand out - remember we want to use United NAtions as our template - evens -2nd fav 7/1 - now THAT'S a price gap!

230 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Speed Dream, 9/2 Divert, 5/1 Marcus Brutus, 6/1 Mist And Stone, Ms Victoria, Shinko Dancer, 10/1 Siobhans Pearl, 12/1 Inourthoughts, Poisiedon, 14/1 Cairlinn, Maid Ofiron, 20/1 Violetsecondempire, 50/1 Oren Ishi.

The first all weather race in IReland - we can assume then that these horses are not used to AW racing - caution advised then - perference for the place only bet

515 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Desert Hawk, 6/1 Andorran, Arctic Desert, Credential, Desert Island Miss, Rowan Lodge, 10/1 Summer Bounty, 16/1 Soul Blazer, 25/1 Dream Master, 33/1 Sheriff´s Deputy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from the consistent DESERT HAWK (nap) who was impressive in a similar contest over C&D in June. Credential can follow him home.[AM]

Positives from Spotlight but look at the horses at 6/1 queuing up as rivalry.

COMMENT - the key with these price gaps is to look for the kind of price gaps that were evident with United NAtions eg fav evens, 2nd fav 7/1 . Obviously there are no candidates of this calibre today. I will put the above up purely to see how they run and if they place

FOOTY
Good enough day yestersay
Yes 5-1 to Juve BUT it took 28 minutes allowing for an under 2.5 goal trade to be successful.
Winning lays of Sunderland and Derby yesterday were very pleasing. From the eletter, Nigeria's under 17's won with ease. The Chelsea game was a comfortable under 2.5 goal trade , and the lay of Getafe was comfortable, despite them scoring first.
If you do get to chance across a 2/5 shot who's gone a goal down then back them - Sevilla were a massive 2.38 to back having gone a goal down - you're getting over evens about a 2/5 shot! - This can only be done in running of course, and was the case when Portugal went a goal down to Armenia. When they equalise ( and in many cases they will equalise) you can trade the difference in odds ,or the more "balls of steel" among you can leave the bet to ride knowing you're getting superb value

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