Monday 27 August 2007

27 AUGUST

Lady Valentino a nck 2nd at 14/1 - gutted! That would have been a great start. Ancien Regime won at a more modest price!
The price gap bets both won at decent prices , and I did warn about taking the short priced fav in the Irish all weather meeting (the first one in Ireland!) Obviously the fav was unsuited.
EACH WAYS
So close with this each way policy - a neck 2nd at 14/1 would have been a welcome boon to the 11/1 winner yesterday.
220 CARTMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Callisto Moon, 2/1 Green Day Packer, 5/1 Nota Liberata, 9/1 Top Rocker, 10/1 Wassendale, 25/1 Munster Mountain, 33/1 Bluto, 40/1 Hair Of The Dog, 50/1 Cinaman, Numerical, 200/1 Neat ´n Tidy.
A classic 3 tier race - market leaders at 11/8, 2/1 and 5/1 , then we have the place only contenders at 9/1, 10/1 then the outsiders at 25/1 +
Top rocker each way for me here incase one of the first 2 don't run to their prices
230 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 La Columbina, 5/2 Green Earrings, 11/2 Anamarka, 13/2 Ballora, 7/1 Shaama Rose, 12/1 Spell Caster, 25/1 Giggling Monkey, Trinkila, 33/1 Aneebee, Mia Haria, 50/1 Fortunella, Ice Choice, Les Allues, 100/1 Bold Diva, Jolie Fleur, 150/1 Sophies Secret.

A maiden race and Anamarka (3rd fav) and , this time Spell caster (6th fav) each way priced just before the "outsiders"
350 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Silver Jaro, 4/1 That Look, 9/2 Nesnaas, 8/1 Almizan, Jack Dawson, 14/1 Earlsfield Raider, Good Old Days, 16/1 Ice And Soda, Methodical, 20/1 Mister Rushby, 33/1 Ilongue, Kinallen, 50/1 Myoss, 100/1 Fort Royal.

Almizan and Earlsfield raider each way
210 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Craigstown, 3/1 Alexander Castle, 9/1 Tarbolton, 14/1 Narmeen, 20/1 Inspector Clouseau, Safari Dancer, Sonny Sam, 33/1 Actabou, 50/1 Blazing Mask,

Tarbolton each way
520 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Greyfriars Abbey, 3/1 War Anthem, 8/1 Heaven´s Gates, 10/1 Steel Silk, 14/1 Bollin Fergus, Grethel, 20/1 Centenary, The Quantum Kid.

One for each way thievery - Steel silk and HEavens gates each way


WIN/PLACE BETS
GOod result yesterday with 2 winners
440 CARTMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Westfield Dancer, 5/1 Good Man Again, 11/2 Ad Murum, 15/2 Midnight Gunner, 11/1 Chevalier Errant, 12/1 Professor Hegarty, 14/1 Hehasalife, 18/1 Snipe, 20/1 Barracat, 25/1 Blazing Hills, Rolfes Delight .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WESTFIELD DANCER has produced dominant performances on his last three starts, is unbeaten at this course and can defy another rise in the weights. Ad Murum and Midnight Gunner could give the selection most to do. [DM]

Decent enough price gap - note of caution re weight rise
340 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Franchoek, 6/1 Conny Nobel, 13/2 Red, Susie May, 8/1 Tobougg Welcome, 10/1 Lady Traill, Madam Vouvray, Pertemps Power, 16/1 Right Option, 20/1 Regal Ovation, 33/1 Apache Chant, On Watch, 40/1 Salto Chico .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRANCHOEK (nap) found his stride much too late when favourite at Haydock but the winner was an unexposed Prescott charge (who won again next time) and the return here to 2m from 1m6f will be firmly in his favour. Several of today's rivals run over this sort of trip for the first time and Pertemps Power, for one, is open to improvement now he goes handicapping, but Franchoek looks clearly the pick on the existing racecourse evidence.[RA]

Not a spectacular price gap and a handicap fav but certainly a positive write up



415 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Potentiale, 6/1 Sweet Request, 8/1 Speagle, 10/1 Royal Indulgence, 12/1 Double Spectre, Ermine Grey, Golden Sprite, Pelham Crescent, Spunger, 16/1 Fantasy Ride, 20/1 Factual Lad, 25/1 Fangorn Forest, Hazarayna, Trevian, 33/1 Garibaldi, 50/1 Play Master .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Any number of these have an each-way shout, including Speagle, who's back on a winning mark and showed more from a wide draw last time, but POTENTIALE is clearly the one to beat under Ryan Moore, who operates at a decent strike-rate for the yard.[GW]

Not a very good price gap here for Potentiale -would ideally prefer a far more prominent price gap

530 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Terramarique, 5/1 Coeur D´Alene, Sharaab, 8/1 Farington Lodge, Miss Merenda, 12/1 Win A Rose, 16/1 Big John Macarty, 20/1 Buffers Lane, Well Actually, 25/1 Khadija, Musimaro, 33/1 Ar An Shron, Wee Danny, 50/1 Box On .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Recent Flat winner Sharaab is a potential improver now trying a longer trip but TERRAMARIQUE (nap) can make it eight wins from 11 for Nicky Henderson.[AM]

Not a spectacular price gap but I will note it to see how he performs and if he places - only concern is that he has been winning too often !
215 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Copywriter, 5/1 Futune, Shadow Cabinet, 6/1 Stones Of Venice, 8/1 Exodia, 10/1 Tension Mounts, 16/1 Mujahope, 20/1 Havanavich, Sabre Light, 25/1 La Belle Joannie, 33/1 Ocean Legend .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COPYWRITER couldn't match his debut effort at Lingfield last time but it is too soon to give up on him as the Yarmouth run was full of promise. Shadow Cabinet and Exodia will find this easier, while Stones Of Venice is an interesting newcomer.[PSm]

Again not a super big price gap, and a maiden race to boot, but worth noting how these perfomr. The write up is not as confident as I would like
540 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Amarna, 13/2 Mafeking, 7/1 Nassau Style, 9/1 Minnis Bay, 10/1 Hessian, Merrymadcap, Tempsford Flyer, 12/1 Alfresco, Rubenstar, 16/1 Pivotalia, Up The Chimney, 20/1 Ella Y Rossa, Ninth House, 25/1 Cinematic .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AMARNA (nap) must have further improvement in him and should be well capable of a handicap win off 78. The runner-up in his C&D maiden was a beaten favourite next time but the third and fourth have won and this very well-bred colt was basically in command all the way up the straight when winning that race. Mafeking may be the chief danger.[RA]

Again 2/1 fav ( would prefer United NAtions type evens - - - 7/1_ but again a positive write up

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