31 AUG

Gilded Truffle 4th at 14/1 , alas no place, Shake on it won at 9/1, Welcome Approach 2nd at 3/1, Arfinnit hd 4th at 5/1 , again no place payout, Casablanca minx 1st at 10/1 but I did say get out if you hit a winner early on - don't bother listening to me!

RPice gaps, I left Strike an ark alone and it came nowhere, Royal Indulgence won (again another horse I didn't think would be a good bet - again - don't bother listening to me!), Rockfield Lodge wins, Achill Island won in a very controversial race at an unbackable price 2/7, and Desparate Dan consented to put his best foot forward and won

Another clean sweep on the price gaps - surely this is going to go tits up at some stage -is it?

EACH WAY BETS

I still chose the right races but the wrong outsiders - v frustrating to see a 14/1 winner getting home when you chose other outsiders

220 CHESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Demisemiquaver, 5/4 Sues Surprise, 8/1 Cow Girl, 20/1 Penang, 50/1 Taran Tregarth, 66/1 Cardington Queen, 150/1 Mistblack, 200/1 Lilymay,
Clearly a 2 horse race, but these are ladies so may be temperamental and unpredictable - Cow girl looks the obvious selection but Penang is not priced as an outright outsider and will be a far bigger price to nick a place at least - very speculative

250 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dingle Belle, 6/1 Natural Force, 8/1 Curragh Mountain, Norther Bay, 10/1 Lynott, Spaceman, 14/1 Last Warrior, Zorooni, 20/1 Bleu Exit, Canulos, Gettysburg, High Pressure, Knockalt, 25/1 Sarahs Gift.

A maiden hurdle and I will always opt for the each way option against a shortie. although this will probably appear in the PRice Gap section! - Curragh mountain (3rd ) and Lynott(5th) each way
230 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Artsu, Only A Game, 4/1 Ramatni, 5/1 Thompsons Walls, 10/1 Stormy Journey, 14/1 Atephobia, Smileforawhile, 25/1 Moonlight Gambler,
A nursery so I can be speculative Stormy Journey and Thomposn walls each way
410 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Alberts Story, 11/2 Joshua´s Gold, Zain, 8/1 Miss Porcia, 10/1 Gala Sunday, Lauro, 12/1 Bold Indian, 14/1 Goodwood Spirit, 16/1 Just Dust, 20/1 Howards Rocket, Moonstreaker, Oeuf A La Neige, Pianoforte, Terenzium, 25/1 Anthemion, 33/1 Ulysees.
Gala Sunday and LAuro each way for me - possitioned to be competitive for a place in a competitive looking handicap
440 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Colchium, 4/1 Mister Benedictine, 5/1 Kavachi, 7/1 Gallego, 10/1 Batchworth Blaise, 12/1 Theatre Royal, 14/1 Spice Bar, Waterline Twenty, Windy Prospect, 16/1 Blue Line, 25/1 Croft, Mocha Java, 33/1 Bollywood, Compton Express.

Lady riders handicap - worth speculating again - Batchworth blaise (5th) and Theatre Royal each way
315 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Colony, 5/1 Emmrooz, Funny Me, 8/1 Black Dahlia, Irish Mayhem, Ridge Dance, Winged Legacy, 12/1 Brexca, Nowaira, 16/1 King´s Wonder, 20/1 Sinbad The Sailor, 25/1 Colour Trooper, Dr Livingstone, 50/1 Irish Artist, Pinnacle Point.

Many debutants so again speculating may pay off with a surprise result
I'll opt for the 2 12/1 shots Brexca and Nowaira
700 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Rio Taffeta, 4/1 Smokeyourpipe, 5/1 Lord Deevert, 6/1 Liani, 8/1 Desert Life, 10/1 Alexander Monarchy, 12/1 Mwindaji, 20/1 Emef Princess, 25/1 Carry On Cleo, One Called Alice, 33/1 Liz Long, Miss Willoughby.

A 5 furlong claimer primed for an upset? Mwindaji and Emef PRincess very speculatively as they'll be at big prices

Again, I'll be getting out , well wimping out, if I get an early winner at a decent price or a good priced equivalent placed horse , although the last horse will probably romp home at 25/1 knowing my luck after yesterday's last 10/1 winner!

PRICE GAPS
The strike rate is too good to be true at present. A clean sweep yesterday, albeit at none too excitable prices.
250 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dingle Belle, 6/1 Natural Force, 8/1 Curragh Mountain, Norther Bay, 10/1 Lynott, Spaceman, 14/1 Last Warrior, Zorooni, 20/1 Bleu Exit, Canulos, Gettysburg, High Pressure, Knockalt, 25/1 Sarahs Gift .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DINGLE BELLE, who has been found wanting in the closing stages of her most recent races, has her best chance so far to open her account. She stands out in this company on the basis of her third placing behind Gleann An Sagart and subsequent winner North Shore at Cork in April, and enjoys a clear edge over both ZOROONI and CURRAGH MOUNTAIN on running at Tramore last time, when she was run of it by Ring Hill, a former French-trained Flat winner.

Mentioned earlier - a maiden hurdle

320 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Top The Charts, 6/1 Mozamjer, 7/1 Enfield Chase, 8/1 Royal Approval, 10/1 English City, Montana Slim, 12/1 Sudden Edge .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOP THE CHARTS has shown a level of form in handicaps that indicates a likelihood that he will prove too good for a couple of rivals who are a pound or two higher in official ratings. Tony Martin's Singspiel gelding made the frame in successive handicaps won by former Group 3 Flat winner Bobs Pride at the big meetings at Fairyhouse and Punchestown in the spring. On the first occasion, he finished 3l runner-up, and while he did not quite match that effort when 7l fourth on the second occasion he was only 3l behind third-placed Farmer Brown whose fine summer hurdling campaign culminated with a handsome win in the Galway Hurdle. MOZAMJER is rated 2lb superior to Top The Charts, but his mark has not been put to the test in handicaps and his win in a maiden at Roscommon hardly amounts to enough to suggest that he will cope with that rival. He owed his moderate second to Dreamy Gent at Galway to the fall of the selection's stablemate Imperial Rose at the last.

"indicates a likelihood" - I'd prefer "hard to oppose"! But the price gap is very defined
455 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Shesthebiscuit, 5/1 Yoursmineandours, 6/1 Only One Left, 8/1 Distant Piper, Sagittate, 10/1 Ansari, Jetarsu, 12/1 Moon At Midnight, Penny And Me, 14/1 Divinshki, 16/1 Dictation, Frank Moss Bennett, 20/1 At Last, Great Blasket ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHESTHEBISCUIT (nap) has the best credentials, and the only real concern is that here recent good run of form has been achieved on different ground to today's forecast surface. It was yielding when she was second at Gowran and also when she beat Togher Castle at Killarney, and she coped well with heavy going when runner-up to Indian Four at Tralee ten days ago.

Slight price gap here and a typical tricky Irish race but let's see , for the sake of keeping records, how the horse runs
555 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 La Motta, 5/1 Papa Power, 6/1 Radiator Rooney, 8/1 Knockmealdown, Miss Curly, 10/1 Danetime Lily, Intensify, Libras Child, 12/1 Pep In Her Step, 14/1 Smooth Steps, 16/1 Dromana Gate, 20/1 Hard Gossip ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MISS CURLY, blinkered for the first time today, is an each-way sugestion. She is certainly not without a chance if recapturing the form that she showed in taking third place behind Johnny Angel over the course and trip a year ago, since she is 14lb lower now. In fact, she has never run off such an attractive mark in a handcap career that stretches back to the 2003 season when she was runner-up on three occasions, competing off a mark in the high 50s. Her form last season included a fine second to Miracle Ridge in a 22-runner sprint handicap at Navan, and she may now reverse last month's Naas running with KNOCKMEALDOWN. LA MOTTA, bidding to maintain a good spell of form for trainer Ado McGuinness, has a major chance. The seven-year-old, who has notched two of his three career wins over the course and trip, is 4lb lower than when beating Dooie Dancer here a year ago, and it is encouraging that he showed definite signs of a return to form when third to the well-handicapped subsequent Galway winner Emily Blake at Limerick last time. Amongst those behind was Calm Lad who won a claimer in good style at Sligo on Tuesday.

La motta

NOTE - do you really think that the favourites will go through the card at Downpatrick - stats are against this occurence
I have included these 5/2 - - - 5/1 and 9/4 ----5/1 price gaps after wins in the UK by the likes of Zain and Toy Top recently - I'll be keen to see how these perform.
My general tendency is to put precedence on UK qualifiers above the Irish

445 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ellens Academy, 5/1 Haajes, 6/1 Joyeaux, Katie Boo, 7/1 Rainbow Fox, 9/1 Steel Blue, 10/1 Yorkshire Blue, 12/1 Finsbury, 16/1 Stoic Leader, 25/1 Opal Noir, 40/1 Wainwright .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ellens Academy looked in fantastic form at Ayr on Wednesday and a reproduction of that effort would give him every chance, but he has never won two races in a row and it might be worth taking him on with HAAJES, who made a promising start to his UK career last time out.[SR]

Again not a Palmetto Point type of price gap and NOT the pick of Spotlight - caution regarding never having won 2 on the trot - you can look on this as a negative or as a pattern to be ended should the right race come up
As I said earlier 5/2 - - - 5/1 are being included although they do not really meet my ideal price gap criteria

610 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Mccartney, 5/1 Yahrab, 6/1 Donegal, 8/1 Art Master, 10/1 Scintillo, 12/1 Quick Release, 14/1 Strategic Mover .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was hard not to be impressed by the impression McCARTNEY (nap) created at Hamilton last time and although this represents a tougher assignment, he can pass the test with flying colours. Yahrab has shaped as though a smart prospect as well and is taken to chase the selection home.[PSm]

McCartney is a previous winner for the price gaps and the price gap is certainly there -
Mccartney

Shaped with some promise on his Sandown debut and confirmed himself a smart juvenile when routing rivals in a conditions event at Hamilton; well up to making his mark in Listed company and assuming faster ground isn´t a problem, he will prove very hard to beat.
Good to see those words "will prove to be very hard to beat" but a note of caution , given the time of the race, regarding ground conditions which should be checked nearer the off
640 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bright Mind, 6/1 Harry Tricker, 7/1 Easterly Breeze, 12/1 Demolition, Elusory, 14/1 Wroughton, 16/1 Anna Towkaska, 20/1 Split The Wind, 25/1 Miss Habershon, 33/1 Covert Mission, 50/1 Lady Of Lorne .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BRIGHT MIND caught the eye in behind the impressive Broomielaw on debut and looks to have been found a good opportunity to get off the mark here. Demolition shouldn't be up to beating him, but comes from an in-form stable and could prove the best each-way alternative.[PSm]

Another maiden race and a fav based upon one previous run - I did note caution with Dubai Times and he went on and won!
As with all maidens, it should go without saying that the live market will be important

525 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sugar Ray, 5/1 Malyana, Nur Tau, 7/1 Venir Rouge, 8/1 Rock Anthem, 10/1 Highland Harvest, Risque Heights, 20/1 Beau Sancy, Minos, 25/1 Kilburn, 33/1 Sir Liam, 66/1 Colonel Flay .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be plenty more to come from SUGAR RAY (nap) and he can deliver a knock-out blow to this opposition now handicapping. Malyana and Nur Tau can follow him home.[AC]

NAPS and price gaps have been performing well - an anomoly or can it continue?

It's difficult for me , now , to distinguish between horses I think won't run too well and the banker bets ,because time after time this week I've been surprised by the bigger priced winners eg 5/2 etc, which is why I have cast the price gap net a little fiurther this time and included these, for record keeping purposes more than anything.

Will the 4 Downroyal price gappers win? Instincts and experience tell me that it is difficult for multiple favs to win at a single venue in Ireland, but with horse racing you never can tell.
Too many price gappers for me today as well - I would be happier with one or 2

30 AUG

PRince Kalouman 4th yesterday, Just Lille 2nd for each way backers, Nufoodh and Messiah GArvey unplaced, and Judgethemoment 3rd at 8/1 for each way backers made for a non too exciting each way day. PRICE GAPS - wins for Dubai Times, Zain, Wolf River, Toy Top and Atlantic Coast. John KEats came 3rd BUT the price gap near the off was not the one reflected in the betting forecast. - John Keats at 9/4, and Charles Parnell at 5/2 was not quite the 9/4 - - - 11/2 in the morning
Midnight Sky was a no bet if you saw the red highlight yesterday "not an easy race to find a way into"with Midnight Sky actually not even mentioned in Spotlight.

My thanks must go the Sven for providing a welcome boost to my betting bank yesterday. 11/8 about a premiership side against newly promited teams from to the Championship I'll take that price all day.
Pity I didn't put it up on the blog. Again it was one of those bets where you back the team before the off and them lay them after they (hopefully) score the first goal and trade the drop in price

EACH WAY BETS
Since the inception of this blog I've had a 20/1 winner, a couple of 14/1's and an 11/1 and a smattering of shorter priced winners., but I've also had yesterday's 25/1 shot at the wrong end of a photo and another 14/1 at the wrong end of a photo
615 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 De La Grandera, 3/1 Eskadron, 9/2 Soneva Gili, 7/1 Almanyan, 10/1 Russian Empress, 12/1 Nans Best, 14/1 Gilded Truffle, 20/1 Coral Beauty, Entre Chat, Molly Wee, Nanita Bonita, Sean Og Coulston, 25/1 Starstruck Peter, 33/1 Oriel Flow, 50/1 Oldtown Green,
Classic 3 tier - 1st tier 13/8, 3/1, 9/2 - 2nd tier 7/1 ,10/1 ,12/1, 14/1 3rd tier 20/1 bar those
I'm going to look for 2 from the 2nd tier in Almanyan and Gilded truffle
220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Royal Indulgence, 5/1 Measured Response, 6/1 Border Edge, Sir Haydn, 13/2 Recalcitrant, 8/1 Western Roots, 9/1 General Flumpa, 11/1 Beaver, 14/1 Voice Mail, 28/1 Hey Presto.
A tight betting heat 5/1, 6/1, 6/1, 13/2, 8/1, 9/1 - very congested - I'll chance Border edge and western roots - 3rd and 5th betting forecast favs
250 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Central Force, 5/1 Willow Dancer, 6/1 Distiller, 8/1 Castara Bay, 10/1 Four Miracles, 12/1 Calculating, Shake On It, 14/1 Mardi, 16/1 Berry Hill Lass, Golan Way, 20/1 Aegis, Maid Of Ale, 25/1 Opera Crown, 33/1 Putra Laju.
As this is a handicap, I'm going to venture away from the first 5 in the betting and opt for Calculating and Shake on it each way - just before the outsiders
210 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Attacca, 5/1 Anthemion, 7/1 Barataria, Zabeel Tower, 8/1 Linden´s Lady, Lobengula, Miss Porcia, 12/1 Gifted Flame, 14/1 Adobe, Jabraan, 20/1 Brace Of Doves, 25/1 Mis Chicaf, 50/1 Senor Eduardo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to be confident about many of these. Anthemion runs this track well and down in grade today he should give a good account under conditions that should suit, but like triple 7f course winner Attacca he may be vulnerable to the strong finish of BARATARIA.[AC]

Chance ofr a specualtive punt on Gifted flame and Adobe each way, again just before the outsiders
240 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Toy Top, 7/2 Methaaly, 4/1 Welcome Approach, 5/1 Malapropism, 8/1 Strensall, 10/1 Rothesay Dancer, 12/1 Ptarmigan Ridge, 25/1 Strawberry Patch, 33/1 Seafield Towers, Sharp Hat, 50/1 Rosie´s Result, 100/1 Compton Lad, Mutayam, Sokoke.

Remember Toy Top - yes a price gap horse and winner yesterday - I'll give him a miss today and opt for Welcome Approach ()3rd) and Strensall(5th) each way
TIPPERARY
455
Flying Cheetah each way - an Aiden OBrien horse and clearly not one of the stable stars but an each way price at around 14/1 - probably won't win but Aiden O'Brien has produced 25/1 winners in the past !
230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Spirit Of Coniston, 5/1 Midnight Sky, 6/1 Kennington, Mystery Pips, 8/1 Ruby´s Dream, 10/1 Arfinnit, Elvina, 14/1 Bee Magic, Diamond Josh, He´s A Rocket, 20/1 Meikle Barfil, 25/1 Twinned, Violet´s Pride.

A constricted betting market here and the perceived competitiveness makes me want to back a couple of outsiders in Arfinnit and Elvina , nestled in between the 8/1 and 14/1 shots
500 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Millfield, 4/1 Blue Empire, 6/1 Green Pirate, 7/1 Scuba, 8/1 Burford Lass, Casablanca Minx, 12/1 Boreana, 16/1 Sovereignty, Wodhill Schnaps, 20/1 Ashleigh Anderson, Grand Palace, 25/1 Night In.
Burford Lass and Casablanca Minx are priced to be competitive from a place only perspective

Again there are a lot of each ways today and common sense will tell you to bail out if you get a a good priced winner or a decent payout for a bis priced placed horse

PRICE GAPS

There is a system doing the rounds based exactly on what I've been doing for the last 2 years on various blogs -ie backing price gaps in the betting forecast. It's called the Durex, or duraglit, or something like that system (just found it - the siralex system)so leave it alone - another chancer trying to extract your money from ideas that were not his! The bar steward!

A great day yesterday - read my notes re John Keats - no price gap at the off, and Midnight Sky -NOT EVEN MENTIONED BY SPOTLIGHT! I hope these are apparent to you without me needing to point out which ones to leave alone.
Unbackable prices alas on Wolf River - obviuously quite a few people had the same feelings as the Spotlight writer.
Pleasing to see ToyTop and Zain win at, relatively speaking, working mans' prices. Strange that I didn't have too much confdence in these 2 and they win at good odds

545 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Strike An Ark, 5/1 Sian Thomas, 13/2 Amber Trix, 7/1 Keep In Touch, 8/1 Sally´s Dream, 12/1 Mintmarsh, Zamona, 14/1 Hannah Rose, She´s The Question, 20/1 Inca Wood, Look Who´s Back, 25/1 Back To Como, Clare Dalgan, Sandy Road, 33/1 Dylan Two, Minerva Queen ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STRIKE AN ARK, a winner on the Flat at Gowran on her penultimate start, has good overall credentials on her first run over hurdles since she was a beaten favourite for a novice event at Musselburgh early in the year. She was taking on some smart types when seventh in a Fairyhouse maiden in which De Valira beat Arrive Sir Clive at Fairyhouse last December, and had previously earned a high rating chasing by chasing home the smart Grangeclare Lark in a Grade 3 mares novice hurdle at Down Royal.

The hint of a price gap but not a horse I'd be having - coming back from a lay off, although does have RUBY RUBY RUBY RUBY on board

220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Royal Indulgence, 5/1 Measured Response, 6/1 Border Edge, Sir Haydn, 13/2 Recalcitrant, 8/1 Western Roots, 9/1 General Flumpa, 11/1 Beaver, 14/1 Voice Mail, 28/1 Hey Presto .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest apprentice handicap wouldn't be the most attractive of betting mediums but something has to win and that something may well be ROYAL INDULGENCE, who won in sufficient style at Chepstow on Monday to suggest that he can defy a 6lb penalty. [MCu] You get the idea! 350 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rockfield Lodge, 9/2 Alls Fair, 15/2 Sunny Sprite, 9/1 Farpedon, 10/1 Oceana Blue, 12/1 Raiding Party, 14/1 Imperial Mark, 20/1 Master Of Arts, 22/1 Eastbourne, 25/1 Sweet Dane, 40/1 Peer Pressure . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless one of the newcomers is decent - and there are one of two half-interesting ones on paper, worth a market check - this is likely to go to ROCKFIELD LODGE (nap), whose latest Haydock second is decent enough form and who had run well enough here the time before. With a BHB rating of 78, one of the newcomers will have to be around about an 85 horse at least to beat him, without the benefit of previous experience. [MCu] Note of caution - maiden race - some newcomers - worth looking for price moves, a la 16/1 system for any the bookies fancy against the hot pot 655 TIPPERARY BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Achill Island, 5/1 Technica Tweak, 6/1 I Confess, Wing Stealth, 8/1 Better Built, 10/1 Choosey Girl, Magna Cum Laude, 12/1 Glenconnor Lad, Treeko, 16/1 Coffee Tea Or Me, 20/1 Contingency Plan, Exploration, Fast Hanna, Flag Of Honour, Monkhair, Weallshookhands , SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ACHILL ISLAND is tipped to score at the third attempt. The Sadler's Wells colt is dropped back into maiden company after finishing to Lisvale in a Listed race over the course and trip three weeks ago, and it should be noted that the form of the Naas maiden in which he was second to Luz De La Luna first time out has been boosted by third-placed Alhabeeb in recording a convincing success at Tralee.\n This system I'm none too confident of using in Ireland especially big field maidens but let's see what happens - got the right jockey trainer combo I suppose - Aiden OBrien and Keiren Fallon 300 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: Evs Desperate Dan, 5/1 Danish Blues, 6/1 Rag Tag, 14/1 Nawayea, 16/1 Lady Hopeful, Luloah, 20/1 Borzoi Maestro, North Fleet, Tang, 25/1 Lord Blue Boy, Sofinella, 33/1 Jessica Wigmo, Saint Remus . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around Desperate Dan, who has the ability to win this without coming off the bridle. Therein lies the problem though, as he has a history of finding nothing for pressure and has flattered to deceive repeatedly. The likely frenetic gallop will suit and he will never get a better chance, but he isn't one for the faint-hearted at the likely odds. DANISH BLUES is reliable enough in this grade and given they will be coming back to him in the straight, he could prove a safer each-way alternative.[PSm] None too confident regarding Desparate Dan despite a pretty healthy price gap Desperate Dan Has the raw ability to trounce this opposition but that isn´t the way he tends to operate and has flattered to deceive on numerous occasions; could win this on the bridle, but if he comes under pressure, debatable what he will find. Hardly a Palmetto Point is he? A quiet day today for the price gaps with nothing really standing out at all FOOTY Great result for me yesterday with Man City - was afraid the yougsters wouldn't perform but they were great. UEFA CUP continues today with many mismatches and an opportunity for those with balls of steel to lump on and get off after the first goal has been scored ( if the match is in running) - not recommended for the faint hearted!