back-lay-trade-horses-football

Tuesday, 25 January 2011

25/1

*****ONE A DAY - 730pm - Blackpool v Man Utd - back over 1.5 goals at 1.2*****
Both teams are in good goalscoring form and home team keep conceding at home and keep scoring at home.

Although Tigre D'aron and Alfie Sherrin won yesterday, there was all sorts of niggles. French Hollow unplaced as multiple winning handicappers tend to falter with greater weight. Even Fortuna Sittard ended their over 2.5 goal sequence because they were playing an equally poor team.

7pm - Waalwijk v Noordwijk - 1.15 home - Juliper League v Hoofdclasse. Big gulf in class . Only 3 losses in last 12 for home team, one was a friendly, and 2 were close ( 3-2 and 2-1)
Hoofdklasse is " the 2nd highest league of amateur football in the Netherlands, and the fourth tier in general." ( wikipaedia)
There seems to be a gulf in class here which I like for Cup matches.

730pm -Blackpool v Man Utd - 1.37 away -Premier league match and www.soccerstats.com ( my right arm) is down which hinders my research somewhat.
From www.betdevil.com

Home team Blackpool have a home record of 3-2-4 (W-D-L) for their 9 home games this season, 11 points from a possible 27. That's a home points average of 1.22 compared to 1.27 for all games this season. Blackpool's recent points average is 1.00, 6 points from 6 games 2-0-4 (W-D-L) Blackpool's last 10 league games record reads DWDWWLLWLL (WDWWLLLWLL) while their last 10 home league games read WDLLWDWLWL (WDLLWDWLWL).

Away team Man Utd have an away record of 2-8-0 (W-D-L) for their 10 away games this season, 14 points from a possible 30. That's an away points average of 1.40 compared to 2.18 for all games this season. Man Utd's recent points average is 2.33, 14 points from games; Man Utd's last 10 league games record reads DWWWWDWWDW (LDWWDWWWDW) while their last 10 away league games read DDDDWDDDWD (DWWDDWLDWD).

We see the United problems away - 8 draws. Still they remain the only undefeated side in the Premiership.

Using www.soccerway.com, I note Blackpool are DWLWL at home last 5 matches. All over 2.5 goals as you would expect.

DDDWD away for United last 5.Interestingly the win was against another promoted side West Brom.

Last head to head match was 1971.

I suspect that a goals bet will have a great chance of coming good. The 1.37 for United looks big considering the opposition United should lead at some stage.

I would not be surprised with a few late goals today as well as, like a number of promoted sides, Blackpool concede a huge number in the last 15 minutes ( they should be drinking Lucozade if you believe Stevie G)

745pm - Arsenal v Ipswich - 1.13 home. This is great. A good team playing at home and they must win against inferior opposition.

Slight concern when evaluating teams with new management as these can see unexpected "honeymoon period" results. This should be Arsenal all day. The only question is whether we enhance the odds with halftime/fulltime Arsenal /Arsenal or over 2.5 goals.

Many moons ago I flagged up a certain Dolgopolov and told you to watch out for him ( this was after seeing him v Nadal in Monte Carlo) - well he faces Andy Murray this evening and I can see him causing Andy some problems before eventually succumbing. This makes the 1.13 for Murray layable. Dolgopolov is exciting.

110 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Tornado Bob, 5/1 Glitzy D´ocala, 8/1 Lord Liath, 20/1 Group Leader, 33/1 Tippering, 50/1 Kauto Cyreo, 50/1 Lucky Sunny, 80/1 The Hon Tara.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is an above-average heat but it's hard to oppose CHAMPION COURT (nap), who looked a horse going places at Cheltenham in November. Tornado Bob and hurdling debutant Glitzy D'Ocala will be no pushovers, though. [Dave Orton]

Only 3 under 20/1 should dominate here if the soft(heavy in places) ground does not make this race a leveller. 1.13 Tornado Bob to place

McCain/Maguire's Tornado Bob could be the one.

140 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Invictus, 11/4 Extremely So, 6/1 Areuwitmenow, 11/1 Baan, 14/1 Empire Builder, 33/1 Bloodyburn Bay, 40/1 Crafti Bookie, 50/1 Highland Legacy, 80/1 Lucius Fabeo, 100/1 Just Unique, 100/1 Sunday Sharpner.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: By far the weaker of the two divisions. The well-regarded INVICTUS is taken to open his account for connections at the expense of the penalised Extremely So. [Dave Orton]

2 under 12/1 and Invictus represents King/Thornton

240 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Risaala, 2/1 Lifestyle, 4/1 Alexander Road, 16/1 Lilac Belle, 20/1 Alfie´s Pearl, 25/1 Qualitee, 33/1 Francesa, 40/1 Golbelini, 50/1 Argentia.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Risaala looked progressive when off the mark latest, but market support for old rival LIFESTYLE on her hurdling bow would be ominous and she gets narrow preference in receipt on 6lb. [Dave Orton]

Lots of races at Leicester today with top heavy markets. Here we have 3 under 20/1 and Risaala has the requisite experience while Lifestyle comes from King Midas Henderson and has Geraghty onboard but making hurdling bow today

100 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Charminster, 9/2 Tiptoeaway, 5/1 Quelle Chance, 10/1 Arrow Barrow, 16/1 Middlebrook, 33/1 Shan Blue, 50/1 Serafini, 66/1 A Patchy Dancer, 66/1 Velvet Vic, 100/1 Rats, 100/1 Stitched Up, 200/1 Another Mystery.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Donald McCain, who saddled the winner of this race a year ago and landed both divisions in 2009, can maintain his stranglehold with CHARMINSTER (nap). Tiptoeaway will appeal as an each-way alternative if the odds allow.[Frank Carter]

Now 3/10 and trainer targets this race.

SHORTLIST

7pm - Waalwijk v Noordwijk - 1.15 home - -1.28 over 2.5 goals albeit a hugely illiquid market. A division 2 side ( Juliper league) against weaker opponents should signal goals. This is in running

730pm -Blackpool v Man Utd - 1.37 away - No soccerstats.com today -I hope it is temporary- means my analysis is not as thorough as it should be for United v Blackpool, but from memory, Blackpool are 100% over 2.5 goals at home.
1.2 over 1.5 goals includes both sides. 1.57 is a big price for over 2.5 goals given the home team's trend for goals and United's hot striker bang in form.
4-0 and 6-0 away losses to Chelsea and Arsenal. The only top 4 side Blackpool have entertained at home is Man City ( 3-2 loss)
Man Utd could lead this match at some stage making the 1.37 tradeable but we are looking for safe bets and the over 1.5 goals at 1.2 looks to fit the bill, including both sides.
Speculators will take the 1.57 over 2.5 goals and even venture to over 3.5 goals for traders.

745pm - Arsenal v Ipswich - 1.13 home - just what we want - ultra motivated side ( needs Silverware and 1-0 down so need to win), the 1.13 is the safe option and should come in at home.
1.43 over 2.5 goals. The market expects goals this evening with a +2.5 handicap for Ipswich .

Ipswich will take heart from Arsenal's 1-1 draw with Leeds at home, but away at Leeds they won convincingly. Should be a carbon copy tonight. Ipswich perform well at home but lose away.
2,2,3,3,0(man city),1,(leeds), 3 scored in last 7 at home. Expect 2 or 3 this evening.

LLLWLLLDLL away for Ipswich. Yes new manager syndrome may play a part but this looks like its Arsenal by 2 or 3 this evening.

110 Leicester - 1.13 Tornado Bob to place
240 Leicester - Risaala 1.2 to place is reasonable but assumes the market leaders dominate ( the 3 under 20/1) - I only choose Risaala as the horse has good hurdling form recently.
100 SEDGEFIELD - Tiptoeaway the value here?

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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One A Day
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Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

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Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

Monday, 24 January 2011

24/1

It is a day for having faith in the betting market. A maiden hurdler whose only run is in France and suddenly Tigre Daron is all the rage, but that form is not transferable and a maiden hurdle with some newcomers may see potential dark horses. Alfie Sherrin is worth the risk in a 4 horse race for 2 places but a 75 day absence on only 2nd chase fence start puts me off.
French Hollow is another huge price gapper, but is up again in the weights, and last 2 wins were on standard to slow all weather ground ( was this a factor)
The football is less than clear. I would consider goals in the Juliper League but the matches of interest are not in running. I would lay Telstar against Go ahead eagles if the match was in running, as I can see Go ahead taking the lead at some stage for a good trade.

*****ONE A DAY - NO BET TODAY***** Too many niggles.

1.3 at the off for PSV and a nice 3-0 away win

330pm - Persepolis v Zenit St Petersburg - 1.39 away - this is an international friendly so is best left alone.
7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Almere - the amazing record of 100% over 2.5 goals this season was retained by Fortuna Sittard last match, despite being 0-0 at halftime, they managed to concede 3 goals in the 2nd half. Will this standout stat continue? The Juliper league should be renamed the Goaliper League. An average throughout of 3.3 goals per match.
4-1, 0-0, 2-2 in head to heads when Almere were known as Omniworld.
Is this basically the same team?
This is 17th v 18th. Both concede plenty against other opponents. But they look to be the same level. Will that result in a tight match?
In 7 of 8 home matches, Fortuna have scored, and when playing bottom basement ( well Telstar who are 3rd from bottom ( remember Almere and Fortuna are bottom 2). the score was 2-4 in Telstar's favour.
Fortuna and Almere have yet to meet this season. Fortuna have only conceded less than 2 goals in one match at home this season. A goals bet is reliant on Fortuna scoring and conceding.
7/9 away matches for Almere have been over 2.5 goals. 1.51 over 2.5 goals but this match is not in running.
7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Telstar - 1.59 home - in a league reknowned for goals, it might be worth checking out this match. - against the bottom 7 at home, Go ahead have won 3-0, 3-0, and 8-0 ( TElstar are 3rd from bottom)
LDDDL in last 5 for Go ahead is poor form but they are playing a poor side today. Chance of redress?
Only one win away for Telstar came at bottom side Fortuna. Laying Telstar here might be the best course of action.
8pm - Bolton v Chelsea - only one loss at home for Bolton was 1-0 v Liverpool.
Last 2 head to heads in 2010 were Chelsea wins by 1-0.
WWDWWD last 6 for Bolton at home. They have to perform at home because look at their recent away form LLLLL, 3 of those being 1-0! How gauling for Own Coyle.
Bolton have only played Man Utd of the new top 4 at home and that was a 2-2 draw. A pity we cannot gauge from other top 4 sides at home. Suffice to say they have lost away Arsenal, Chelsea and City ( 2 1-0 results there)
Bolton at home have beaten 5th, 7th, 8th and 10th.
2 wins in last 10 for Chelsea have both been at home ( one was 1-0 v Bolton)
LDWLLDDLL away for Chelsea in their last 9 matches is not League winning away form. 1 win in 10 away and Bolton is the last team Chelsea want to play away.
0,0,0,0,1,1,1,0 -the goals scored by Chelsea away in last 8 matches. We see where the problem lies.
1.15 for under 4.5 goals has a good chance of coming in bearing in mind this poor goalscoring record away from home.Only 36% of Chelsea's away matches have been over 2.5 goals , but 64% of Bolton's home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Still we have 2 goals above 2.5 goals until 4.5 is breached.
2-2 v Man Utd, 4-1 away to Arsenal, 4-2 and 5-1 v Spurs and Newcastle might put this at jeopardy.

1255 WETHERBY

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Tigre D´aron, 11/2 High Rolling, 11/2 White Diamond, 13/2 High Ransom, 13/2 Royal Holiday, 14/1 Lil Ella, 20/1 Grams And Ounces, 25/1 Bateau Bleu, 33/1 Almutaham, 40/1 Petrocelli.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIGRE D'ARON made a promising debut when runner-up in a big field at Pau last month for Jacques Ortet and, while it's not easy to pin down exactly what the form is worth, he's the most intriguing runner in the field. It would be particularly significant if the market speaks in his favour. The other hurdling form on offer is rather ordinary and he may have most to fear from some of the newcomers to this game.[Steven Boow]

4/7 - - - 7/1 price gapper here this Tigre D'aron and we would need to have faith in the betting market as this is a maiden hurdle and there are some debutants to the sphere. Also Tigre's sole run is in France and the formlines are not immediately transferable.

235 WETHERBY

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Alfie Sherrin, 9/4 Glenwood Knight, 5/1 Knockavilla, 7/1 Sir Tantallus Hawk.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Glenwood Knight has claims but he may struggle to give weight to very useful hurdler ALFIE SHERRIN, who shaped with promise on his chase debut in a strong event at Bangor - form that has been franked several times.[Richard Young]

Form franked several times for Alfie Sherrin in a potential match up here. 4 horses and 2 places for these novice chasers.

220 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rhal, 7/2 William Wainwright, 9/2 Torteval, 8/1 Amore Et Labore, 10/1 Titan Diamond, 20/1 Gekko, 25/1 Princess Gail, 33/1 Look´n´listen.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to make a case for too many of these and Rhal, Torteval and WILLIAM WAINWRIGHT look the three to concentrate on. The selection was behind Rhal last time, but he didn't give his running there and there is still the prospect of some improvement now he is upped to 7f.[Paul Smith]

Rhal now odds on in a 7 runner race which should still be 3 places on Betfair. Torteval represents a Guernsey bookmaker who likes a punt.

505 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 French Hollow, 6/1 Dart, 6/1 Lynott, 10/1 Accompanist, 10/1 Bute Street, 33/1 Bolton Hall, 33/1 Ravi River.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dart's comeback effort at Southwell was too bad to be true but, like the others, she'll do well to stop the progressive FRENCH HOLLOW (nap) completing his hat-trick.[Graham Wheldon]

It's a Channel Island day it would seem at Wolves , with Torteval, Cobo Bay and Jersey Joe all running.

French Hollow though looks a standout price gapper here.4/7 - - - 11/2 With only 2 places we will get a reasonable price in the place market. Has won his last 2 and multiple handicap winners will lose eventually as the weight catches up with them. Career high mark today for French Hollow - will he get the hatrick or will it be a bridge too far?

SHORTLIST

7pm - Fortuna Sittard v Almere - i would back over 2.5 goals until Fortuna's 100% record ends, but I am less keen when it becomes a bet and not a trade as this match is not in running.
7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Telstar - 1.59 home - go ahead eagles are clearly dominant at home against bottom 7 sides, scoring 8,3,3 to no reply. Telstar are 3rd bottom. Chance to lay Telstar here?Not in running though and an illiquid market.

1255 WETHERBY - Tigre D-aron is a huge price gapper - is that enough to back at 1.16 to place?

235 WETHERBY - Alfie Sherrin has run over chase fences and that form has been franked. Hoping this is a race dominated by the 2 clear market favourites in a 4 horse race for 2 places. 1.26 to place - 75 day absence not ideal for only 2nd chase run.

505 WOLVES - "Coming between horses once in line for home, he scored with plenty in hand and should continue to be competitive even from his revised mark" for French Hollow. These multiple handicap winners are hit and miss - the winning run will end soon. Course and distance winner - won last 2 on standard to slow ground ( was that a factor?)

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

Sunday, 23 January 2011

23/1

Another slight risk this afternoon as PSV's recent away form has been poor but there are only 3 points between top 3 in the league. With Ajax losing, PSV know they are playing a team who have lost to all the top 7 at home.

*****ONE A DAY - 130pm - VVV V PSV - Back PSV in the match odds market at 1.3*****
REmember that this match is in running so if there is a surprise 2-0 early lead for PSV ( like Inter v Cesena) trade out

Plenty of goals for Bayern. Nice to see the acca come in, although it did look strong.

130pm - Roda JC v Excelsior - 1.4 home - 6 v 16th - last 4 head to heads were overs. Excelsior are promoted so only one recent head to head 2010 - 2-1 to Roda.
6 draws and 3 wins at home for Roda do not make them solid backing material.
DWDDDWD at home last 7
Excelsior away though have lost 7 and drawn 2 ( both score draws) so goals a good bet today?

130pm - VVV v PSV - 1.28 away - return of one of the triumvirate.
2nd from bottom v top.PSV have played 4 matches ( 2 at home and 2 away) v bottom 4 and won them all. DLD last 3 away matches for PSV of some concern but the teams were higher in the league than VVV
Beat VVV 3-0 at home.
VVV have played 6 of the top 7 at home and lost all 6 ( playing the 7th today)
2 wins at home came against 12th and 13th. Bridge too far v the top teams.
This should end PSV's sticky away patch.

145pm - Vaulx en Velin v Rennes - 1.23 away - this must be an away win if Ligue 1 3rd place take this seriously. A 5 match trot of 1-0 and 0-0 matches for Rennes ended with a 7-0 home cup win v Cannes and a 4-0 home win v Arles( one a day bet) - so they have the goal scoring groove coming into this away match.

4pm - Agen v Paris St-G - 1.4 away - more french cup mismatches:? 2nd in league away to Agen
8 of Paris's last 12 away matches have been draws so trading, if poss, is ideal here.

430pm - Brazil U20 v Bolivia U20 - 1.16 indicates goals. 2-1 and 3-0 in head to heads.
Brazil have started 2011 well with 2 wins and 7 goals in 2 games.
Bolivia have lost their last 5, but note last 2 were only 1-0 losses.
9 losses, 2 wins and a draw in their last 12. We can see that a loss is expected.

430pm - Lille v Wasquehal - 1.15 - more French Cup - top of the league Lille are at home and should do the business against who?

6pm - Real Madrid v Mallorca - 1.18 home - Real do not lose in the league under the Special one AT HOME right? So we have 2 choices, a home win or a draw. Simples!
Went tits up last week and pretty much handed the title to Barca. Backed Real last week and that 93rd minute Ronaldo crossbar free kick was a sickener.
9 wins out of 9 at home, and away v Mallorca was 0-0 but to be honest that was not unexpected given Mallorca are a different proposition at home.
1-1 draw away at Barca and 2-1 win over Valencia away makes Mallorca a royal pain in the arse this evening for Jose.
Mallorca , though, have conceded 3 goals in their last 3 away matches, and were beaten 3-1 by Villareal. Real should be able to replicate this ( and indeed the 1.17 indicates as much)

Head to heads - 1-3 ( MAllorca win at Real) , 2-0, 1-4 ( Real Madrid away win), 0-0

745pm - AC Milan v Cesena - 1.23 home - top v 4th from bottom - September 2010 2-0 home win for Cesena - did they catch AC Milan at a bad time?
4-0 and 3-0 v 18th and 19th, Cesena are 17th.,
Last 4 AC Milan matches have seen dropped points. 1-0 home loss to Roma, 1-0 away win at Calgliari, 4-4 home draw v Udinese ( where at no stage were AC Milan leading), 1-1 away draw v lowly Lecce)
This is not the form of a 1.23 shot, so the market makers must see Cesena as easy prey. Let's see!
Fresh in my mind is last weekend's one a day where Cesena came back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 before eventually capitulating. This could be a tricky match for AC Milan today
1-0, 1-1, 1-2 ( away win), 3-2 -last 4 away matches have seen a fighting Cesena who are catching AC Milan on a bad return and still retaining top position in the league.

245 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Hurricane Fly, 3/1 Solwhit, 12/1 Voler La Vedette, 20/1 Thousand Stars, 25/1 Sublimity.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Today is the fifth time that HURRICANE FLY and Solwhit take each other on with the score currently standing at 3-1 to Willie Mullins' star hurdler, who looks hard to oppose again on recent form. His stablemate Thousand Stars looks open to improvement from his pleasing seasonal debut effort behind the two multiple Grade 1 winners and is capable of running a big race. [Brian Fleming]

Frosty in Kerry but advertised as soft ground at Leopardstown.

Hurricane Fly is 3-1 in head to heads with Solwhit and this looks set to continue in a race where only 2 are under 12/1

420 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Zadarska, 7/2 Mart Lane, 4/1 Burn And Turn, 4/1 Shrapnel, 12/1 No Loose Change, 16/1 Clonleney, 16/1 Portion Control, 20/1 Universal Mind, 33/1 Bb Bonita, 33/1 Jay Cee Alexander.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Burn And Turn is the clear pick of those with racecourse form having chased home the well-touted newcomer Bog Warrior at Fairyhouse on New Years Day but this bumper could well be dominated by newcomers' Shrapnel, Mart Lane and ZABARSKA, who is taken to continue Willie Mullins' good record in the race. [Brian Fleming]

3 under 20/1 in this bumper thanks to a prominent non runner - Shrapnel, mart Lane and Burn are set to dominate this bumper.

120 MR

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Problema Tic, 7/2 Saint Are, 9/2 Dear Sam, 20/1 Hudibras, 20/1 Speed Dating, 20/1 Tait´s Clock, 33/1 Cool Strike, 33/1 High Hoylander, 33/1 Practice Round, 33/1 Wistow, 66/1 Glory Nights, 66/1 King Sandor, 66/1 Look Officer, 66/1 Maraased, 100/1 Maybeme.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from unbeaten performer PROBLEMA TIC (nap), who created a favourable impression when winning on his hurdle debut last time (form franked), should be suited by the step up to this trip and hails from a yard that could hardly be in better form. [Richard Young]

3 under 20/1

305 TOWCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Pret A Thou, 11/4 Coolbeg, 11/4 Old Way, 8/1 Ezdiyaad, 25/1 Caddie Master, 25/1 Dudley Docker, 25/1 Newton Tonic, 66/1 Drink Up, 66/1 Murfreesboro.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pret A Thou has done most of his racing over fences but he's 1-1 over hurdles in Britain and sets the standard on his form under both disciplines. However, the less-exposed pair Coolbeg and OLD WAY have the potential to improve past him, with preference for Venetia Williams' runner who has a nice pedigree and should be sharper for his Taunton run.[Steven Boow]

4th fav a non runner should make this a 3 horse race with the front 3 dominating but hard to split in the betting

SHORTLIST

130pm - VVV v PSV - 1.28 away - it looks compelling for PSV that VVV have lost all home matches against the 6 of the top 7 that they have played.

DLD away last 3 for PSV some slight concern but are playing the kind of opponents where they can register another win today.

145pm - Vaulx en Velin v Rennes - 1.23 away - illiquid betting market and we are betting blind re team news, home team form but this should be within the compass of 3rd in Ligue 1

430pm - Brazil U20 v Bolivia U20 - 1.16 - Brazil in good shape in 2011 with wins scoring 4 and 3 goals against a Bolivia who have lost their last 5 matches. Should continue the goal scoring today

430pm - Lille v Wasquehal - 1.15 - perhaps the stronger of the Ligue 1 French Cup matches simply because Lille are top and playing at home. Would be a massive shock if top of Ligue 1 lost to ,erm, Wasquehal!
This is in running so speculating on over 3.5 goals for trading purposes only might be an angle incase Lille really dominate as they are supposed to do when priced at 1.15

6pm - Real Madrid v Mallorca - 1.18 home - Special One does not lose at home so that's win or draw to choose from. Mallorca have conceded 3 in last 3 but against top sides away have been royal pains in the arse . Could be tricky for real but priced to win by 2 or 3 this evening. cannot slip up after last week's debacle.

245 LEOP - Hurricane Fly 1.14 to place and Solwhit 1.57 to place - if you feel this is another match up then 1.57 is very tempting.

420 LEOP - take your pick of the 3 under 20/1 - all around 1.29 to place and just hope that the market is accurate.

120 MARKET RASEN - Problem Atic should place for McCoy and Henderson - 1.13

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

130pm - VVV v PSV - 1.28 away - I acknowledge PSV's poor away form but so too do I acknowledge VVV have lost all home matches against top 7 that they have played thus far. A bridge too far and an ideal opportunity for PSV to get back to winning ways away after dropping 7 points from last 9 available away. With Ajax losing 2-0 currently, they should be more motivated.

145pm - Vaulx en Velin v Rennes - 1.23 away - Rennes have put the 1-0's and 0-0's to bet in last 2 matches, scoring 7 and 4. This is an ideal foundation for this away Cup match. A strong Rennes team wins, but we are betting blind. Totally illiquid betting market.

430pm - Brazil U20 v Bolivia U20 - 1.16 - the form shows a team scoring freely in 2011 v a team who are on a 5 match losing streak.

430pm - Lille v Wasquehal - 1.15 - top of Ligue 1 must surely hold all the aces here.

245 LEOPARDSTOWN - Hurrican Fly should post another 1st or 2nd place here.

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

Saturday, 22 January 2011

22/1

Over 1.5 goals for Bayern, Barca half time /over 2.5 goals and Masterminded stand out.

I think , with Bayern scoring 3 and 4 in their last 5 home matches against a side with an 89% away record over 2.5 goals,

***** 230pm - Bayern Munich v Kasierslautern - back over 1.5 goals at 1.2*****

Again there looks to be plenty of betting opportunities today. Perhaps a multiple? Last week's 1.73 was a success.

1	Trabzonspor v Ankaragucu (Laying Ankaragucu @ 16.09)
2	B Munich v Kaiserslautern (Laying Kaiserslautern @ 16.45)
3	Arsenal v Wigan (Backing Arsenal @ 1.18)
4	Celtic v Aberdeen (Laying Aberdeen @ 17.03)
5	Man Utd v Birmingham (Laying Birmingham @ 24.63)
6	Barcelona v Santander (Backing Barcelona @ 1.05)
7	Benfica v Nacional (Laying Nacional @ 18.8)

7-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7	1.66	€100.00	€66.00

*Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake:	€100.00
Your total potential win:	€66.00

The risk on Pineapple Pete did not pay off. A suspicious rise in place only price to 1.72 signalled something! The perennial "dark horse" at 16/1 shot off and nearly won and had an unassailable lead.
The Almere v Waalwijk match finished goal laden as expected and proved the safer bet.

2pm - Trabzonspor v Ankaragucu - 1.3 home - top v 13th and a most unexpected top in a league where Fenerbahce and Galatasary usually dominate.WWWWLW in head to heads. The loss was a 1-0.
7 wins, 1 draw ( 0-0) and a loss at home for Trabonzspor. 12 match unbeaten run for Trab DWWWWWWDWWWW. Last 4 wins have seen Trab score 3 goals in 3 matches and 2 in the other. Great form and full of confidence.
4 draws, a loss and a win for Ankar in their last 6.
Have been beaten 4-1 and 5-0 away to 5th and 6th place but not played top 4 away.
2-0 away win for Trab in last head to head.

230pm - B Munich v Kaiserslautern - 1.3 home - big gap in head to heads from 2006 to 2009 so concentrate on last 2 head to heads 2-0 BAyern away and 2-0 home win for Kaiserslautern in August 2010! Because Robben and Ribery were out for Bayern?
WWWWW last 5 at home for Bayern , a return to home invincibility, scoring 3,4,3,4,3.
Kaiser have lost away to all of the top 7 they have played. Will this negate the fact they beat Bayern at home 2-0 in August?
WLW away last 3 for Kaiserslautern.
89% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals, coupled with Bayern scoring 3,4,3,4,3 at home in last 5 a recipe for a goals bet?
3pm - Arsenal v Wigan - 1.2 home - a win takes Arsenal top for a short while ( Dependent on Man Utd's result) 4-0 and 2-0 head to heads at home - both shut outs of Wigan ( more possession for the Arse) WLWD head to heads last 4 ( both L and D were away at Wigan) - so Arsenal win at home but have difficulty at Wigan.
WDWDW last 5 for Arsenal -they have scored 3 in all wins. One draw was man City who came for the draw and the other recent draw was 2-2 away at , guess who, Wigan (where Arsenal were 2-1 up at one stage)
LLDWD away for Wigan recently and DDWDLDD in last 7 for Wigan home and away. Note only 1 loss in last 7 and 4 draws.
LLDL against top 5 ( 3 home and 1 away) in the matches Wigan have played .

3pm - Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.26 home - 2 games and 2 points in hand for Celtic at the top. Last 5 matches have been over 3.5 goals bar one 3-0 win for Celtic. Goals here? 9-0 last time out - remember the wounded animal syndrome re Aberdeen making sure this humiliation does not happen again.
DDDWW at home last 5 matches for Celtic and the draws ended. DDDWWWDW for Celtic last8 matches and the away draw v Hamilton makes them inconsistent.Away to the top 5, Aderdeen have lost the lot, but last 4 matches have seen 3 wins and a draw.
3pm - Man Utd v Birmingham - 1.22 home- equal with City and 2 games in hand. This is likely to be another tight affair between these 2 - 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1 last 5 head to heads.
In 10 of 11 home matches, United have scored 2 goals at least. The 11th was against Arsenal. Will Brum be as stubborn as usual?
WWWWWWW at home last 7 for United.WWWWDWWD last 8 - one of the draws was 1-1 away to Brum very recently.
Bar the 0-0 v Spurs last time out, United scored first in 7 consecutive matches, which opens things up for a good trading bet?
Under 3.5 goals too given these 2's head to heads? Last 2 Old Trafford meetings have been 1-0.
DDLW last 4 away for Brum.

3pm - South Africa B v Sweden - 1.83 away - they scored first against Botswana and won 2-1 - 1.83 a good trade if Sweden score first again. - note this is not THE Sweden side.
7pm - Barcelona v Santander - 1.08 - those who read the eletter yesterday know short prices equal goals. Match against Betis an aberation and Barca team with a 5 goal cushion could not really be arsed against Betis. The pressure is off a little with REal slipping up last weekend ( as we know to our cost). 1.08 = goals.5,3,3,8,5,3,5,5,2,4,4 the goals scored by Barca in last 11 matches. 2,5,3,5,5,2,4 scored at home last 7 matches.
4-1, 4-0 and 3-0 the head to heads. Over 2.5 goals perhaps tonight?
In 11 of last 12, Barca led at half time - enhance the odds with a half time win bet?
Racing have lost away to 3 of the top 4, losing 6-1 to Real Madrid and Barca this season are far more potent than Real Madrid.
LLLLWDL away for Racing.

915pm - Benfica v Nacional - 1.27 home - 6 wins on the trot and 7 wins on the trot at home see Benfica return to the glory days of last year where they were scoring for fun.
2nd match of the season saw Nacional win 2-1. benfica seem to have found their stride since.
4,3,2,5,3,1 scored in last 6 wins for Benfica, 4,2,5 at home.
LDLWLD away for NAcional - inconsistent.Nacional have only conceded one goal in their last 3 matches so perhaps a change to a more defensive unit? They have not scored, though, in their last 3 either.

115 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Grandouet, 4/1 Plenty Pocket, 12/1 Magic Prospect, 12/1 Singapore Storm, 14/1 Two Kisses, 16/1 L´eminence Grise, 16/1 Looks Like Slim, 33/1 Whitby Jack, 40/1 Ostentation, 100/1 Truly Magic.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It would be a big shock if GRANDOUET were turned over by any of the others that have already run over hurdles. He is disputing favouritism for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham, for which today's hurdling newcomer Plenty Pocket figures at 20-1 in some lists. That Nicholls-trained recruit from France receives 10lb and is the chief concern, though Magic Prospect also had fairly useful form on the Flat.[Richard Austen]

" a big shock" - that's what we want!

Only 2 under 14/1

225 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Master Minded, 7/1 Petit Robin, 7/1 Somersby, 12/1 Mad Max, 16/1 Crack Away Jack, 20/1 Gauvain, 25/1 Kalahari King, 25/1 Tchico Polos, 33/1 I´m So Lucky.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to see beyond MASTER MINDED, who won this by a long way in 2009 and has looked back to something very close to his best in two wins this term when seemingly putting last season's difficulties firmly behind him. Somersby was second to the selection at Cheltenham last time and there are grounds for arguing he can step up a bit on that form again now. He may again claim second, with Petit Robin taken to complete a replication of the Cheltenham placings and taking third. [Mel Cullinan]

huge price gapper who should place with a clear round.

200 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Crafty Roberto, 9/2 Snowy Peak, 12/1 Ruby Brook, 14/1 Caravan Rolls On, 14/1 Have Another, 20/1 Lakota Ghost, 33/1 Pizzetti, 33/1 Revolutionary, 66/1 Dance To Destiny, 66/1 Emerald Royal, 66/1 Talkin Italian.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A couple of interesting newcomers and a likely improver in Snowy Peak, but CRAFTY ROBERTO looked a surefire future winner when second at Kempton last month and can go one better here.[Paul Smith]

" a surefire future winner" - Snowy Peak has been backed

235 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Insolenceofoffice, 7/1 Slatey Hen, 7/1 Striking Eyes, 10/1 Golden Shine, 12/1 Imogen Louise, 14/1 Ajaafa, 20/1 Bluberry, 20/1 Doesn´t Care, 25/1 Tony Hollis.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Striking Eyes may well do better with her debut behind her but INSOLENCEOFOFFICE hasn't done much wrong this winter and he can make a winning start for David Nicholls.[Paul Smith]

Huge price gapper but suspiciously long winning run.

430 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Arthurian Legend, 2/1 Ramses De Marcigny, 9/1 Joker Choker, 9/1 Nosecond Chance, 12/1 Cap Elorn, 16/1 Otis Tarda, 16/1 Steptoe, 20/1 Hawkaller, 25/1 Calico Rose, 25/1 E Street Boy, 28/1 Tenby Jewel, 33/1 Behindcloseddoors, 33/1 Calusa Catrina, 40/1 Direct Flo, 40/1 Furrows, 40/1 Russian Conquest, 50/1 Wosayu, 66/1 Honest.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lots of deadwood in a race in which RAMSES DE MARCIGNY and Arthurian Legend stand out. The latter is much respected on his hurdles debut win but was disappointing last time so preference is for Ramses de Marcigny, whose bumper form would make him a formidable rival on these terms anyway, if taking to hurdles. [Mel Cullinan]

Lots of deadwood - faith in the front 2 to dominate?

SHORTLIST

2pm - Trabzonspor v Ankaragucu - 1.3 home - possibility of a draw a slight concern given recent away side's record

230pm - B Munich v Kaiserslautern - 1.3 home - 1.21 over 1.5 goals looks good given these 2's records home and away.

3pm - Arsenal v Wigan - 1.2 home - the rule is Arsenal win at home v Wigan and struggle away at Wigan. Last 2 matches have been wins and shut outs for Arsenal at home 4-0 and 2-0

3pm - Man Utd v Birmingham - 1.22 home - 1.23 under 4.5 goals very enticing given these 2 team's head to heads.

7pm - Barcelona v Santander - 1.08 - 1.3 over 2.5 goals and 1.34 half time to Barcelona both enhance the odds. 1.72 over 3.5 goals for traders.

115 ASCOT - Grandouet should place here albeit at only 1.1 to place

225 ASCOT - 1.18 to place for Masterminded - he should place if he doesn't win.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

2pm - Trabzonspor v Ankaragucu - 1.3 home - Trab's goalscoring to negate Ankar's draw capability

230pm - B Munich v Kaiserslautern - 1.3 home - 1.21 over 1.5 goals.

3pm - Arsenal v Wigan - 1.2 home - Arsenal win at home in head to heads!

3pm - Man Utd v Birmingham - 1.22 home - likely to be a tough match this afternoon - 1.2 under 4.5 goals?

7pm - Barcelona v Santander - 1.08 - 1.34 half time for Barca is interesting.

225 ASCOT - Masterminded should place here surely with a clear round.

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Friday, 21 January 2011

21/1

Standout speculative bet today would be Pineapple Pete at 1.47 to place in a 7 runner race for 2 places - not just any old race but a 5 furlong class 5 maiden . Pineapple has 2 2nd places over course and distance in 2011 for today's rider. He is the 2nd horse under 20/1 and if we were to entertain place only betting we would have to assume that this will be 1st and 2nd for 1st and 2nd in the betting.
Elsewhere I return to the goal laden Dutch 2nd division today, and 2 standout matches , one featuring a team who are over 2.5 goals in 100% of their matches, and the other featuring a team who have had a total of 16 goals in their last 3 matches.

The safer bet today? Well it must be Almere v Waalwijk over 1.5 goals over Pineapple Pete. Only 1.15 , it should oblige.
I am, though, very tempted to put up Pineapple pete and try a bigger priced horse to place . On our side is the fact he has a tongue tie on again , 2 2nd places over 5 furlongs in his last 2 runs over course and distance, same jockey on board. and one of only 2 under 20/1

*****ONE A DAY 230 LINGFIELD -Back Pineapple Pete to place only at 1.47*****
This is a risky bet today and I am trying to up the place only returns. This could easily go wrong as it is a 5 furlong maiden and there may be a dark horse. After all it is only 2 places so any errors will be punished.
I would strongly suggest that if you want a safer bet then over 1.5 goals in the Almere and Waalwijk matches would be worth a shot. I will take a chance on Pineapple and hope the race finishes with the 2 horses under 20/1 1st and 2nd in the race.

Sporting scored as the head to heads suggested.

Today, football wise, is the Dutch 2nd flight, and that usually signals 3 things, goals goals and goals.

It's just a matter of choosing the right match for the better over 2.5 goals as I did last Friday with Dordrecht and Emmen ( 0-0 I think at half time!! ended 2-2)

6pm - Besiktas v Bucaspor - 1.3 home - 5th v 2nd from bottom in this league match.
Only 1 recent head to head in 2010 was a 1-0 away win for Besiktas. This signals that Bucaspor are newcomers.
Besiktas have drawn against 16th and 18th at home ( Bucaspor are 17th) - trouble dispatching the strugglers at home?
WDDWD at home last 5 - makes the opponents look layable and hints maybe at a neutral goals bet as the draws were all score draws.
Besiktas have only managed to score 1 goals in 3 of their last 4 home matches.
Good news for Besiktas is Bucaspor's record away to the top 7. They have lost the lot, against 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th, and you can guess which team are 5th in the league? - Besiktas!!!
They have conceded 3,5,2,2 in their last 4 away matches.

7pm - Almere v Waalwijk - 1.5 away - 2nd v 2nd from bottom and +21 goal difference plays -32 goals difference.
It's 50/50 for Almere at home as regards over 2.5 goals.
They have not played the top 4 at home yet but away the scorelines read 4-0, 5-0, 1-0, 2-4 ( 3 losses and a 4-2 win) - goals bar one match v Volendam
7/8 at home have been over 1.5 goals.Almere have conceded in 7/8 at home too.
2010 head to heads are 4-1 and 5-0 in favour of Waalwijk.
11 of last 12 for Almere have been over 1.5 goals.
78% of Waalwijk's away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
They have not played any of the bottom 4 away but at home have scored 5,3,5,2 against them.
5-0 v Almere last time out.
Have played 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 14th away and the scorelines are 1-3, 3-3, 2-1(loss), 2-4, 2-3
A team who score v a team who concede!
All matches this season played by Waalwijk have included these total goals ( latest last) 0,3,4,4,5,2,4,4,2,5,3,6,3,5,3,6,5,5
Over 4.5 goals in all of their last 3 most recent matches.
We can chance a goals bet surely? In fact, they look good for the win here.
7pm - Dordrecht v Fortuna Sittard - 1.47 home - Fortuna Sittard have the unique distinction of 100% over 2.5 goals in all home and away matches. Slight concern that Dordrecht at home are around 56% but this Fortuna concede at will!.
In 7 of their 9 away matches, Fortuna have conceded at least 3. In the remaining 2, they conceded 2. It all rests I feel on Fortuna continuing this amazing 100% over 2.5 goals sequence.
7pm - Zwolle v AGOVV - 1.35 home - top v 14th of 18. Have already won 5-1 at Agovv. 2 thirds of their home matches are over 2.5 goals. The remaining matches were 2-0's
Concern with 2011 form for Zwolle - they are dropping points. Prior to the draw and loss in 2011, Zwolle were on a 9 match winning run. Too many mince pies in the break? They sufferred a 3-4 loss at home which suggests the home shooting boots are still working.
5 over 2.5 goals away matches for Agovv were ended last time by a 1-0 away loss.
They have had 3 1-0's against 4th, 5th and 10th which might spill over to the Zwolle match?

155 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Peace Corps, 7/4 City Stable, 3/1 Sheila´s Bond, 20/1 Lightening Force, 25/1 Dalrymple.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The reliable SHEILA'S BOND has a bit to find at the weights with Peace Corps and City Stable but should run her race and that may prove decisive.[Adrian Cook]

Another seller alas but another good probability race. Should be 3 horses for 2 places.Peace Corps is the market favourite at evens.

230 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Morermaloke, 5/2 Pineapple Pete, 10/1 Fairy Tales, 14/1 Dangerous Illusion, 14/1 Stoneacre Joe Joe, 25/1 Pickled Pumpkin, 66/1 Tough Customer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest maiden which ought to comfortably be within the reach of MORERMALOKE. A tongue-tie has revitalised Pineapple Pete the last twice and he looks the main danger.[Adrian Cook]

Like Kingscroft and Kristallino ( where the latter did not place - I noted the drop in trip and was a little concerned in such a poor grade) we have 2 horses under 20/1 here in Morermaloke and Pineapple Pete. Naturally the latter is the value call, but in a class 5, do we trust these maidens to run as the market suggests.

With only 2 places, we will be getting decent enough place only prices. More is now 2/7 with Pete at 7/2

605 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Fettuccine, 100/30 Elusive Love, 5/1 Bint Susu, 8/1 Kentish, 16/1 Apple Dumpling, 16/1 Hesindamood, 25/1 Higher Spen Jess, 25/1 Stardust Dancer, 33/1 Cooke´s Bar, 50/1 Avon Light, 66/1 Bold Trumpeter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FETTUCCINE is preferred in a race that won't take much winning, with Bint Susu the most interesting of the newcomers.[Graeme North]

Only 4 under 20/1 in this maiden although given the race time, I would rather determine a horse to place nearer the off as this is a maiden.

SHORTLIST

6pm - Besiktas v Bucaspor - 1.3 home -I am concerned that Besiktas have only managed 1 goal scored in 3 of their last 4 home matches but this may be negated by the fact that their opponents have lost away to all of the top 7 they have played ( and they meet 5th place today) 1-0 in away head to heads too.

7pm - Almere v Waalwijk - 1.5 away - 1.15 over 1.5 goals has a great chance of coming in if the poor minus goal difference for Almere versus the solid positive goal difference for Waalwijk translates on the pitch. 1.47 over 2.5 goals is worth a tradeable bet. Waalwijk's total goals in their matches surely will help both goals bets?

7pm - Dordrecht v Fortuna Sittard - 1.47 home - must be included from a goals perspective given all of Fortuna's matches have seen over 2.5 goals. 1.17 over 1.5 goals ( illiquid market) but chance 1.5 over 2.5 goals?

155 LINGFIELD - 3 horses should fight out 2 places but it is a seller and the favourite Peace Corps was very poor last twice. A horse 5th and 6th , now fav, shows you the quality ( or lack thereof) of this race.

230 LINGFIELD - Kristallino did not place yesterday ( and to be fair he was dropping in trip)- can we trust the market today? Will Morermaloke and Pineapple Pete dominate as the only 2 under 20/1 should?
1.11 to place for Morer and a better 1.47 for Pineapple.The next best to place is 5/1 .
Only 2 places - dare we chance the value selection Pineapple this time? Pineapple has finished 2nd last 2 races , both at Lingfield and both over 5 furlongs. He might be worth chancing today to place. No change in trip. It would seem that the tongue tie worn last twice is the key to the horse.

605 WOLVES- should involve 4 under 20/1 but it would be folly for me to make any decisions with 5 hours to go especially as this is a maiden.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Besiktas v Bucaspor - 1.3 home - based solely on Bucaspor's form away to top 7 ( or lack of form rather!!) , my concern is that Besiktas have only managed 1 goal in 3 of their last 4 home matches, and scoring only 1 leaves you very vulnerable. This newly promoted away side should find life difficult though.

7pm - Almere v Waalwijk - 1.5 away - given the goal differences between the sides and Waalwijk's goal totals in pretty much all of their league matches ( 6,5,5 last 3 matches) we can hope this continues with over 1.5 goals at 1.15 today - over 2.5 goals at 1.47 is very tempting but would be approached with a trading angle

7pm - Dordrecht v Fortuna Sittard - 1.47 home - sequences always end, but will this be the case for 100% over 2.5 goalers Fortuna today? Dordrecht's home over 2.5 goal record is just over 50%

230 LINGFIELD - this should involve the 2 horses under 20/1 - only 2 places so a slight risk but time here to chance the bigger priced of the 2 under 20/1 Pineapple Pete? After all, he has finished 2nd in his 2 2011 runs over course and distance and at 1.47 we are getting good place only odds as there are only 2 places.

5 furlongs means any tardiness will be punished. Chris Catlin retains the ride which is an additional positive. This would be a risky bet today as it is only 2 places but we may be catching Pineapple Pete while he is in a consistent mood.

Thursday, 20 January 2011

20/1

Sporting are of interest albeit in the Cup, and with less than convincing home scorelines. They have clear head to head advantage over Penafiel and have scored 2 in each of their last 4 matches, winning 3 and losing one 3-2 when 2-0 up.
Look to be in good recent form.
Horse racing wise, Orpen Indeed is a good probability bet, Al Ferof is a mighty price gapper who must win with a clear round , albeit at 1.16 ( better to go each way speculating here?), and the 620 Wolves, while a poor grade weak race, should be between 2 horses in Kingscroft and the better priced Kristollini , the latter at 1.35 to place is a good value bet here.

In the final analysis, Kristollini might be worth risking, but is dropping suddenly to 6 furlongs for the first time in a very low grade. With Sporting having lost 3-2 while 2-0 up last time out, they will have something to prove, and I think that match will be beneficial for us this evening in ensuring a victory against lower league opponents.
In a tricky day, I think Sporting are the ones tonight with proven head to heads, and scoring at least 2 in last 4 matches, winning 3.

*****ONE A DAY - 815pm - Sp Lisbon v Penafiel - back Sporting Lisbon at 1.21 at home***** I hope I don't rue the fact this is a cup match.

Inter were 2-0 up after 4 minutes. In cases like this, if you can, trade out! You saw, I hope, what happened after! Eventual winners though 3-2.
Barca -a great example of a team that had no motivation to win, and guess what? They did not win.

Slightly abridged message today as broadband was not working this morning.

5pm - Atromitos v Diagoras Rodou - 1.3 home - Division 1 v Division 2 and the away side are a typically Greek team, not a lot of goals and lots of tight matches. Only lost 1 in last 12 so this match is worth passing. As ever in Greece, if in running, I suspect we can trade 0-0.
8pm - AC Milan v Bari - 1.3 home - Italian Cup so a degree of caution. 2-0 and 3-2 in the head to heads in 2010, AC Milan were 2-0 up in the 3-2 match ( and did an Inter yesterday it would seem)
Only 2 wins in their last 12 for Bari, one a cup game and the other a 1-0 v struggling Lecce. I would suspect they are more interested in league survival.
Bari have won only once in the league.
This is league top v league bottom. AC milan have beaten 2 of the bottom 3 3-0 and 4-0 at home already.
It all depends on a strong AC Milan being selected as they should win if the form in an indicator.

815pm - Sp Lisbon v Penafiel - 1.21 home - Division 1 v Division 2 in the Portuguese League Cup. The big boys have won when similarly priced and Sp Lisbon are clear in head to heads.2-0, 3-1, 3-0 -most recent was 2009 so hopefully is still relevant.
Only lost 2 in last 12 in all competitions at home so solidity there. As this is the Cup, perhaps over 1.5 goals would be safer as a neutral bet?

130 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Credit Swap, 9/2 Bermuda Boy, 10/1 Shammick Boy, 10/1 Thunderstorm, 14/1 Time Book, 16/1 Yourgolftravel Com, 25/1 Ben Cee Pee M, 25/1 Senses, 33/1 Lady From Ige, 33/1 Monopole, 40/1 Jomade, 40/1 Mr Bachster, 66/1 Mac Beattie, 66/1 Red Rock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CREDIT SWAP did the job well enough at Leicester to suggest he should be able to shoulder the penalty successfully.[Jonathan Neesom]

This race features only 2 in the betting under 10/1. Of course, logic dictates that Bermuda Boy, the bigger priced of the 2, is the value bet? 1.13 Credit Swap to place and 1.4 Bermuda Boy to place.

Only 4 under 20/1 here so probability wise, with a clear round, Credit Swap should finish in the front 3

230 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Al Ferof, 16/1 Kim Tian Road, 16/1 Ronnie Ronalde, 16/1 Sir Ocus, 25/1 Big Knickers, 33/1 His Lordship, 33/1 Kadalkin, 40/1 Barton Cliche, 50/1 Tanners Emperor, 66/1 Dapple Prince, 100/1 Another Round, 100/1 Midnight Paradise.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AL FEROF appears to have the simplest of chances to open his account over hurdlesl.[Jonathan Neesom]

Now that is a price gap . 1/7 with next best at 16/1. The best payout from this race will be in determining 2nd place ( currently Big Knickers in the betting) as a 16/1 shot placing will pay far more than backing the winner. 1.16 to win and 1.06 to place. If getting involved here we would have to look to the win only. The prices for the other horses are huge.

Cheltenham bumper winner and 3rd in a grade 1 last time. Should be too good with that "clear round" of course. Grade 1 to class 4.

430 TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Divine Folly, 5/2 Bathwick Brave, 6/1 Vincentian, 8/1 Another Dimension, 14/1 Ashbourne Folly, 14/1 Prince Of King, 20/1 How´s My Friend, 33/1 Dani, 33/1 Landscape Lad, 40/1 Lynford Nakita, 66/1 Crystal Cliche, 66/1 Jovial Starry Nite, 66/1 Little Ms Piggie, 66/1 Tenitemsplustoast.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he would be better served by a stiffer test, DIVINE FOLLY has been found a reasonable opening to get off the mark. Market confidence behind newcomer Bathwick Brave or Kempton flop Vincentian would be worth heeding.[Paul Johnson]

Only 3 under 14/1 for a bumper. Bathwick Brave, the newcomer, is favourite only slightly though. Divine Folly is next best . This is a maiden bumper - faith in the market here this early?

450 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Orpenindeed, 5/1 Apache Ridge, 8/1 Ingleby Star, 100/1 Stormburst.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should go to useful handicapper ORPENINDEED, who won a much stronger claimer over C&D when last seen. Apache Ridge can chase him home.[Ben Osborne]

3 horses for 2 places and a clear market leader , albeit in a seller. 1.11 to place and Apache ridge is 1.4 to place , the only other under evens.

550 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Munsef, 6/1 Carlton Scroop, 6/1 Kames Park, 25/1 Duar Mapel, 100/1 Puddington Bear.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There isn't much between MUNSEF and Camps Bay on their running here earlier in the month but the former is the more talented of the pair and is always a threat in this company.[Paul Smith]

The beret wearer Frank Spencer returns on Munsef, as as long as the horse does not slip on an errant rollerskate, should place.Around 1.16 to place in an early illiquid market.

620 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Kingscroft, 3/1 Kristollini, 16/1 Osgoodisgood, 16/1 Sally´s Swansong, 20/1 Lennoxwood, 33/1 Evey P, 66/1 Crystal Bridge, 66/1 Depden.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KINGSCROFT is one of the stable's lesser lights but he has a small race in him and he is unlikely to be found many weaker races than this. Kristollini could be the one to chase him home.[Paul Smith]

Wolves is the place for price gappers 1.1 to place with Kristollini 1.35 to place the only other under 14/1. Try him?

MEYDAN

235

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Sahara Kingdom, 11/2 Solid Choice, 8/1 Tybalt, 10/1 Aamaaq, 10/1 Golden Desert, 10/1 Swinging Sixties, 10/1 Warsaw, 14/1 City Style, 14/1 Indomito, 14/1 Nocturnal Affair, 14/1 Prince Shaun, 20/1 Il Grande Maurizio, 33/1 Navajo Chief.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several exposed sorts but that's not the case with SAHARA KINGDOM, who created a good impression when winning both starts on Polytrack in the UK in 2009 and showed he was at least as good on his Fibresand debut when second to a progressive sort on his reappearance last year. His last run on his turf debut in heavy ground can easily be overlooked and he appeals as an ideal Carnival type for a yard that was in double form here last week. The main danger could be Solid Choice, who also hails from a yard that hit the ground running here last week.[Richard Young]

5/4 - - - - 7/1 for Frankie's mount is quite a contrast with the betting forecast.

545

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 River Jetez, 5/2 Aspectoflove, 5/2 Deem, 10/1 Ayun Tara, 14/1 Thai Haku, 20/1 Forest Crown, 33/1 Anam Chara, 33/1 Kinky Afro, 66/1 Emper Holly, 66/1 My Sweet Baby, 66/1 Summer Games.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should concern just the three at the head of the market and, with there being little to choose between 2009 Cape Verdi winner Deem and Aspectoflove, who were separated by only a short head in last year's Balanchine over 1m1f, this could go to highly regarded South African Grade 1 winner RIVER JETEZ (nap), who is versatile trip-wise, has no penalty to carry, who has reportedly been going very well at home and will find this much easier than when sixth in last year's Durban July on her final start for Mike Bass.[Richard Young]

A 3 horse race it looks like. Will these 3 dominate? If not, which may falter and not place?

TENNIS -AUSSIE OPEN

Midnight sees Caroline Wozniaki play Cibulkova and 1.24 for Woz is a very good price for the World Number 1. She looks rock solid, and the price will collapse if she wins the first set.

SHORTLIST

8pm - AC Milan v Bari - 1.3 home - top v bottom in the league and if form is a factor, this should go with the home side - cup match so ideally need to see a strong AC Milan-back to the league on 23rd Jan against strugglers Cesena at home. Enough of a gap to play first team tonight?