WEATHER WARNING - apart from the African Cup of Nations of course. The weather throughout Europe will affect pitch conditions and could affect "real" form. So be warned there may be surprises which go against the form in weather affected countries. Mostly cup matches today, and another obvious unders match in Greece.
4pm - Zambia v Ghana - 2.04 away - I am a little biased here. I was born in Zambia so will be fully behind the Copper Bullets, albeit I may not be so confident to put my shekels where my heart is.
| Wed | 30/01/08 | ACO | Egypt | 1 - 1 | Zambia | View events | More info |
| Wed | 13/01/10 | ACO | Zambia | 1 - 1 | Tunisia | View events | More info |
| Sun | 17/01/10 | ACO | Cameroon | 3 - 2 | Zambia | View events | More info |
| Thu | 21/01/10 | ACO | Gabon | 1 - 2 | Zambia | View events | More info |
| Mon | 25/01/10 | ACO | Zambia | 0 - 0P | Nigeria | View events | More info |
| Sat | 21/01/12 | ACO | Senegal | 1 - 2 | Zambia | View events | More info |
| Wed | 25/01/12 | ACO | Libya | 2 - 2 | Zambia | View events | More info |
| Sun | 29/01/12 | ACO | Equatorial Guinea | 0 - 1 | Zambia | View events | More info |
| Sat | 04/02/12 | ACO | Zambia | 3 - 0 | Sudan |
A solid set of ACN results for Zambia. And it is the defence that has been solid last 2 results. A replication of that will be necessary against a Ghana side with more household names.
| Mon | 11/01/10 | ACO | Ghana | CANC | Togo | More info | |
| Fri | 15/01/10 | ACO | Côte d'Ivoire | 3 - 1 | Ghana | View events | More info |
| Tue | 19/01/10 | ACO | Burkina Faso | 0 - 1 | Ghana | View events | More info |
| Sun | 24/01/10 | ACO | Angola | 0 - 1 | Ghana | View events | More info |
| Thu | 28/01/10 | ACO | Ghana | 1 - 0 | Nigeria | View events | More info |
| Sun | 31/01/10 | ACO | Ghana | 0 - 1 | Egypt | View events | More info |
| Tue | 24/01/12 | ACO | Ghana | 1 - 0 | Botswana | View events | More info |
| Sat | 28/01/12 | ACO | Ghana | 2 - 0 | Mali | View events | More info |
| Wed | 01/02/12 | ACO | Ghana | 1 - 1 | Guinea | View events | More info |
| Sun | 05/02/12 | ACO | Ghana | E2 - 1 | Tunisia |
Ghana themselves have a degree of solidity in recent matches, although they have conceded in their last 2 matches. An uninspiring series of 5 1-0 scorelines earlier in the campaign again tells us that Ghana could have a strong defensive bent.
Angle in? Perhaps look to a tight match here with both sides favouring a defensive outlook?
530pm - Panetolikos v Doxa Dramas - 1.57 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.02.2011 | D2 | Doxa Dramas | 0-1 | Panetolikos | |
| 24.10.2010 | D2 | Panetolikos | 1-1 | Doxa Dramas | |
| 09.05.2010 | D2 | Doxa Dramas | 0-1 | Panetolikos | |
| 10.01.2010 | D2 | Panetolikos | 1-2 | Doxa Dramas |
Typical Doxa in most recent Division 2 match. Both of these sides are top flight sides. And I will continue researching Doxa as they are a very readable team as you saw a few days ago.
LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 16th of 16. 2 poor teams.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Panetolikos
RECENT HOME FORM - LWDWLWDDD - last 3 draws 1-1 and 2 of the 3 wins 1-0. This could be another masterclass in dour defensive dull football which does nothing for gate receipts in Greece. Have scored only 2 goals twice at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLWDDLLDLD - and let's take a look at the recent scorelines - 1-0 win, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 loss, 1-0 loss, 1-1, 1-0 loss, 1-1. The majority of 1-0 losses came away from home. Majority of 1-0's came away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - 11.1% overs at home says it all. 0.88 conceded at home on average. Only 4 matches over 2.5 goals this season, 3 of which were away from home.
STREAKS - 3 match drawing streak at home.4 at home without defeat . No win in 7 overall. Have conceded in last 6 matches overall.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Doxa
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLDLLL - sole draw was an, ahem, unexpected 0-0.3 away defeats have been 1-0's,
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDDLLLWLL - draws were 0-0, win was a 1-0.
GOAL TRENDS - 25% over 2.5 goals away from home. 0.13 scored on average at home, 0.18 overall. Only 3 over 2.5 goals all season. Have failed to score in 13 matches out of 16 this season.
STREAKS - 8 away without a win.Failed to score in 5 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I hate to go to the same well as the last Doxa match, but under 2.5 goals is so overwhelming, judged solely on the goal trends. Again 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 looks a good call, although we may have to sacrifice one of these to incorporate a 1-1 scoreline as the home team tend to be attracted to that.
6pm - ADO Den Haag v AZ Alkmaar - 1.83 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 06.11.2011 | D1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3-0 | ADO Den Haag | |
| 16.04.2011 | D1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3-1 | ADO Den Haag | |
| 05.12.2010 | D1 | ADO Den Haag | 0-2 | AZ Alkmaar | |
| 19.12.2009 | D1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3-0 | ADO Den Haag | |
| 12.09.2009 | D1 | ADO Den Haag | 2-1 | AZ Alkmaar | |
| 04.04.2009 | D1 | AZ Alkmaar | 4-1 | ADO Den Haag |
Last 4 matches have seen rather comfortable wins for AZ. Only one recent away at ADO.
LEAGUE POSITION - 14th v 3rd - a win takes AZ joint top albeit with inferior goal difference.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - ADO Den Haag
RECENT HOME FORM - DLLWWDWWD - 2 losses at home came against top and 11th without scoring. the only other time ADO failed to score at home, they drew 0-0. And the fact that ADO have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 meetings with AZ ( albeit 3 of them at home) could be a cause for concern. Have not played 2nd to 6th inclusive at home so we only gauge performance v top teams at home based on one match.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWLLDDWWLDL - the last 6 defeats have all come away from home. Heavy defeats away to 2nd 3rd 4th and 6th might be a gauge playing 3rd today, albeit an inaccurate one as this is a home match for ADO
GOAL TRENDS - 44% overs at home. Conceded a whopping 12 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches this season so inplay reactive traders take note. Failed to score in 2 of last 3. General season long trend is with over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS - No defeat in last 6 at home. Have scored in last 6 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - AZ
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWWDWLDLL - stumbling a bit away of late. Defeats against 13th and 9th away last 2 matches. Draw was v 16th . 1-1-0-1-0 scored in last 5 matches away may signal an attacking problem away from home.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDWWWWLDWLDL - only 1 win in the last 5 could signal a drifting away from the title battle?It's not as if the teams have been, on paper, difficult , positioned as they were 4th, 16th, 13th, 6th, and 9th for the recent LDLDL .
GOAL TRENDS - 60% overs away from home. Score an average of 1.3 and concede an average 1.5 away, making it obvious 2.5 goal trade material?Have only failed to score in 3 matches, 2 of which occured in last 5 - signs of decline?AZ have scored most of their goals in the last 15 minutes of matches, that 15 mins where ADO have conceded most of their goals!
STREAKS - 2 match away losing streak. 4 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 1.83 relates a tough task for AZ this evening. Stumbling of late overall and away from home, the question is whether they can do something to end their small 2 match losing streak away. The incentive is with AZ. A win takes them joint top so now, more than ever, an away win is required. The general season long trend for both teams is with over 2.5 goals. Losses and draw away for AZ v 16th and 13th means they are no shoe ins v 14th today and perhaps a neutral goals bet may be the best ploy? I suspect there may be some transfer changes for the side, perhaps that is something you can check .
6pm - H Berlin v Mgladbach - 2.34 away - a German Cup match.
| 05.11.2011 | D1 | Hertha BSC Berlin | 1-2 | Mönchengladbach | |
| 23.01.2010 | D1 | Hertha BSC Berlin | 0-0 | Mönchengladbach | |
| 16.08.2009 | D1 | Mönchengladbach | 2-1 | Hertha BSC Berlin | |
| 28.02.2009 | D1 | Hertha BSC Berlin | 2-1 | Mönchengladbach |
Mixed bag of results . General, small, pattern of both teams scoring.
7pm - Mali v Ivory Coast - 1.47 away - The Ivorians have won the last 2 head to heads 3-0 and 1-0, and I suppose, as this competition reaches today's stage, a tight match will be more likely.
| Sun | 22/01/12 | ACO | Côte d'Ivoire | 1 - 0 | Sudan | View events | More info |
| Thu | 26/01/12 | ACO | Côte d'Ivoire | 2 - 0 | Burkina Faso | View events | More info |
| Mon | 30/01/12 | ACO | Côte d'Ivoire | 2 - 0 | Angola | View events | More info |
| Sat | 04/02/12 | ACO | Côte d'Ivoire | 3 - 0 | Equatorial Guinea |
Rock solid defensively so far this ACN campaign, the Ivorians will be seeking to replicate wins to nil of head to heads.
| Tue | 24/01/12 | ACO | Mali | 1 - 0 | Guinea | View events | More info |
| Sat | 28/01/12 | ACO | Ghana | 2 - 0 | Mali | View events | More info |
| Wed | 01/02/12 | ACO | Botswana | 1 - 2 | Mali | View events | More info |
| Sun | 05/02/12 | ACO | Gabon | 1 - 1 P | Mali |
Mali have been less than impressive in getting where they are .An 85th minute goal ensured a draw last time out. I suppose Ghana will be the best gauge as to a likeliest outcome today.
Tough to get an angle in, but a suggestion, on limited research, for a tight match, latish goal breakthrough and possible eventual Ivorian win to nil.
730pm - Stuttgart v B Munich - 1.63 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 11.12.2011 | D1 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 | Bayern München | |
| 14.05.2011 | D1 | Bayern München | 2-1 | VfB Stuttgart | |
| 22.12.2010 | Cup | VfB Stuttgart | 3-6 | Bayern München | |
| 19.12.2010 | D1 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-5 | Bayern München | |
| 27.03.2010 | D1 | Bayern München | 1-2 | VfB Stuttgart | |
| 31.10.2009 | D1 | VfB Stuttgart | 0-0 | Bayern München |
Goals it would seem the logical call here. And this seems to be reflected by Stuttgart's recent cup adventures.
8 of the last 10 matches over 2.5 goals.
General trend towards goals for Bayern and the lack of a draw too might be factored into this evening.
Again we must realise research is restricted but points to over 2.5 goals and a likely away win with possibly both teams scoring.
745pm - AC Milan v Juventus - 2.32 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 02.10.2011 | D1 | Juventus FC | 2-0 | AC Milan | |
| 21.08.2011 | CF | AC Milan | 2-1 | Juventus FC | |
| 05.03.2011 | D1 | Juventus FC | 0-1 | AC Milan | |
| 30.10.2010 | D1 | AC Milan | 1-2 | Juventus FC | |
| 22.08.2010 | CF | AC Milan | 0-0/p.4-5 | Juventus FC | |
| 15.05.2010 | D1 | AC Milan | 3-0 | Juventus FC |
Milan have won the last 3 meetings but I feel this is a different Juventus this season. An Italian Cup match and 2.32 odds for the favourites makes this indecipherable for me I'm afraid.
745pm - Hearts v Celtic - 1.74 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 10.12.2011 | PR | Celtic FC | 1-0 | Hearts FC | |
| 02.10.2011 | PR | Hearts FC | 2-0 | Celtic FC | |
| 11.05.2011 | PR | Hearts FC | 0-3 | Celtic FC | |
| 26.01.2011 | PR | Celtic FC | 4-0 | Hearts FC | |
| 10.11.2010 | PR | Hearts FC | 2-0 | Celtic FC | |
| 11.09.2010 | PR | Celtic FC | 3-0 | Hearts FC |
Hearts quite good at home in head to heads, and a strange habit between these 2 of only 1 team scoring whenever they meet.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 1st. Celtic are on 59 points after 24 matches. Rangers are on 58 points after 25 matches. Another ideal time to get ahead in the race to the title. A draw or defeat still leaves Celtic top but a 4 point gap is far more appetising.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Hearts
RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWLLWLWWW - no draw at home this season - will that continue?Have beaten Celtic 2-0 at home, and 3rd placed Motherwell. Lost 0-2 to Rangers .
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLWLLWWDWWL - good recent run of form overall ended with a 1-0 away loss to Inverness. 4 wins in last 5 at home should give Hearts heart!
GOAL TRENDS - 42% over 2.5 goals at home. 0.75 conceded on average all season.
STREAKS - 12 at home without a draw. 3 match home winning streak.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Celtic
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWLLDWWWWWW - defeats away this season have come against rangers and Hearts. Hmmm! 7 clean sheets out of 8 away wins for the rest.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWDWWWWWWWWWWWW - says it all really. But do remember the 2-0 away loss to hearts this season. 8 clean sheets in that recent winning run and not conceded 2 goals or more in last 14 matches. A great reaction after the poor 3-3 draw with Killie.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs away from home. We see here and overall, a defensive strength about Celtic. 8 clean sheets in last 11 matches overall.Over 2.5 goals matches have dried up by and large. 1-0, 2-0 kind of wins have pervaded.
STREAKS - 6 match away winning streak , 12 overall. 15 overall without defeat. Have scored in last 12 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the form Celtic are in, you would not put it past another win. Interesting stat from the Racing Post. Hearts have conceded before the break in 1 of their last 9 matches. So half time traders get involved if 0-0 halftime as it conceivably could be.
For me, 2-0, 0-1, 0-2 possible scorelines. Again without both teams scoring. This looks like being an under 2.5 goals match with defences dominating for both sides.
745pm - Middlesbrough v Sunderland - 1.98 away - if everyone had the enthusiasm of Martin O'Neill, it would be a different place.
| 29.01.2012 | Cup | Sunderland AFC | 1-1 | Middlesbrough | |
| 10.01.2009 | PR | Middlesbrough | 1-1 | Sunderland AFC | |
| 20.09.2008 | PR | Sunderland AFC | 2-0 | Middlesbrough | |
| 26.04.2008 | PR | Sunderland AFC | 3-2 | Middlesbrough |
1-1 from the first leg saw Boro take the lead. How will home advantage play out against a Black Cats team clearly loving it under O'Neill? Value call would be a narrow Black cats win. Derbies as ever carry a wealth warning. They tend to be " best on the night" matches, and hence unreadable.
8pm - Barcelona v Valencia - 1.28 home
HEAD TO HEADS
1-1 from the first leg and a collector's item in a Messi missed penalty in the 2nd half. This Barca price tonight is all about their home form. Likely this 1.28 is far too short and Valencia could put up some resistance.
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