5pm - Rennes v Evian TG - 1.72 home -French Cup match.-2 teams from the same division and a single 3-2 head to head win for Rennes last time they met. Not much else to go on.
730pm - Holstein Kiel v Dortmund - 1.25 away - Regionnaliga Nord v Bundesliga giants. 1.25 does look at a tad generous at first viewing.. Dortmund in superb goalscoring form of late, although the strength of opposition in a raft of recent 3-4-5 goal wins in friendlies is questionable. Still, it sees the away side in good nick and on a 6 match winning run in all competitions. Again, little else to go on.
745pm - Birmingham v Portsmouth - 1.66 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 09.03.2010 | PR | Portsmouth | 1-2 | Birmingham City | |
| 06.03.2010 | Cup | Portsmouth | 2-0 | Birmingham City | |
| 19.08.2009 | PR | Birmingham City | 1-0 | Portsmouth | |
| 12.03.2008 | PR | Portsmouth | 4-2 | Birmingham City |
A different ballgame in the Championship so head to heads questionable as reliable yardsticks with all of the changes in personnel and circumstance at both clubs.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 17th. A win takes Brum 3rd on goal difference. If Pompey win their 2 games in hand, they go 13th.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Birmingham
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWWDDWWDWWWD - solid home form.Draws have either been 1-1 or 0-0. Birmingham have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 home matches.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDLLWLDWDWWWWD - 8 match unbeaten run currently.Have never conceded more than 1 goal in last 10 matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 43% overs at home. Average of 0.42 goals conceded at home is quite some stat.4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals is down to Brum scoring than anything else. Clean sheets in 3 of the last 4 matches. Only failed to score in 5 matches this season.
STREAKS - 14 at home without defeat. 8 overall without defeat. No goal conceded in last 2 at home.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - pompey
RECENT AWAY FORM - DDLLLLLDLWLDW - have only played 2 of the top 5 away, losing 4-3 to West Ham and 3-2 to Cardiff. 4 of the remaining 6 defeats away have been 1-0. Only 2 wins away came against 11th and 18th, wins to nil .
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDWLDWWDLDWLLW - inconsistent by and large overall. And that inconsistency presents itself against the top 5 - 0-1 loss, 2 1-1 draws and a 1-1 win at home to top 5, and conceding 4 and 3 away to top 3. Pompey have scored 2-2-3 in 3 of their last 4 matches which leads me to think maybe they have made a January signing who is bringing in the goals or helping to create the goals?
GOAL TRENDS - 36% overs away from home. Last 2 matches over 2.5 goals but only 3 of last 11 were over 2.5 goals. 5 goals scored in last 2 away matches a sign of something new away from home for Pompey?Previously they had failed to score in 7 away matches.
STREAKS - no draw in 4 overall
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is a toughie for me because Pompey have scored 2-2-3 in 3 of their last 4 matches, and scored 3 and 2 in away defeats against 1st and 3rd. Contrast that with a Birmingham side conceding only 0.42 goals at home and we have incongruent goal trends.It is wholly conceivable after the transfer window that Pompey have a new team dynamic enabling them to increase their rate of goals, which may negate brum's obvious defensive solidity at home.
What we can note is that Birmingham are unbeaten at home and have not conceded in 3 of their last 4 home matches.
I remain non committal in this match, largely again to a ? about possible January transfer market buys.
FORM LAB
• Match outcome: Birmingham have won 6/8 home matches against bottom-half teams and they have scored first in 9/14 home matches. Portsmouth have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home clean sheet v all
2) - Home win to nil v all
3) - Home clean sheet v Middle third
745pm - Dunfermline v Kilmarnock - 2.2 away
HEAD TO HEADS
| 21.01.2012 | PR | Kilmarnock FC | 0-3 | Dunfermline | |
| 10.09.2011 | PR | Kilmarnock FC | 3-2 | Dunfermline | |
| 17.02.2007 | PR | Dunfermline | 1-1 | Kilmarnock FC |
A bit of a surprise to see 3 goals scored by Dunfermline last match in head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 8th.Killie have 2 matches in hand.
HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Dunfermline
RECENT HOME FORM - DDLDLLLDLLL - playing 8th today and have drawn against 9th 0-0 and 10th 3-3. No win yet for Dunfermline at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLLLLLWLL - the win was against -guess who? Very much not the norm I assure you! Have conceded 2-2-3-2-4-3-3-3-0-3-1 in recent matches overall.
GOAL TRENDS - 82% overs at home. Only 2 clean sheets kept in last 20 matches. Average 2.81 conceded at home.
STREAKS - No win in 11 at home, 3 match home losing streak, have conceded in last 10.
AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Kilmarnock
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDLLDWDLLD - like Dunfermline who have a sole win at home, Killie have only 1 win away but a greater proliferation of draws. Have lost to 9th, 10th and drawn with 11th. Failed to score in 5 matches at home.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLDWWDLLWDL - only 5 wins all season , 4 at home.
GOAL TRENDS - 36% overs away from home. Score an average 0.64 away - pitiful.Have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 matches.
STREAKS - 4 away without a win. No goal scored in 2 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 2 poor teams in a poor league and yet again we see gross incongruency in the goal stats. I have a tendency to side with Dunfermline's over 2.5 goals at home as it seems such a standout stat.The recent history between the 2 sides may back that up. Ultra speculators might want to look as high as over 3.5/4.5 goals incase we get another humdinger ( all prevalent on the time of the 3rd goal in this case) but do note Killie have failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches.. As to the winner? Well 2.2 the shortest price tells all. The bookies themselves don't know.
FORM LAB
• +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Dunfermline home matches and +3.5 goals in 7/10 Dunfermline home matches. Kilmarnock have conceded first in 10/18 away matches.
TOp 3 INDICATORS
1) - Home draw v bottom half
2) - Over 2.5 match goals v bottom half
3) - Most match goals 2nd half v all
745pm - Southampton v Millwall - 1.71 home - a cup match this one against 2 teams from the same league. Not much I can do to research it. A look at www.soccerway.com might reveal some patterns.
Head to Heads most revealing.
| 28.01.2012 | Cup | Millwall FC | 1-1 | Southampton | |
| 20.08.2011 | LCh | Southampton | 1-0 | Millwall FC | |
| 16.01.2010 | L1 | Millwall FC | 1-1 | Southampton | |
| 08.08.2009 | L1 | Southampton | 1-1 | Millwall FC | |
| 31.07.2007 | CF | Millwall FC | 0-1 | Southampton |
This looks like a replay. Interestingly, Saints have scored first in all of the last 6 head to heads.
In the 21 matches prior to the 1-1 draw with Millwall in the FA Cup, Saints had failed to draw. So do you think we will see another draw today all of a sudden?
Only 1 draw at home in 13 FA Cup matches. Only succumbed to Pompey and Man Utd recently in the Cup, and scored 2+ on numerous occasions.
In contrast to Saints, Millwall have had 4 draws in their last 6 FA Cup matches. Their last 3 FA Cup matches away were all draws just to confuse us all!
Likely, I suspect, to be another tight match with goals at a premium, as has occured numerous times. Laying the draw a conundrum here given Saints lack of draws but Millwall's propensity for draws away.
1-1 a reasonable shout for a correct score trade?
9pm - Ath Bilbao v Mirandes - 1.33 home - a step too far for unfunny BBC Comedienne Mirandes Hart this evening in the 2nd leg of the Copa Del Rey? Remember they did beat Espanyol and Villareal in this competition. 1-2 in the first leg saw Bilbao comfortably 2-0 up until the 91st minute. This suggests a dominance over the unfunny BBC Comedienne's side.A goal for Mirandes is still not enough if there is an away goals rule in this competition. I do not see Mirandes scoring 2 goals so speculators out there perhaps work a correct score scenario around the bare minimum for Bilbao ( 0-0, 1-0) or a potential fightback for Mirandes ( 1-1)?
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