Tuesday 14 February 2012

14/2

Today is dominated by the Champions League and this is notoriously difficult to research. I have listed the matches below. Knockout stages mean ultra caution I would suspect. I will not be doing any commentary on these matches but put my knee jerk ideas on teams below
Olympiakos - traditionally poor away from home. Traditionally Greek too which could lead to the life being strangled out of their match with Rubin Kazan. Unders a possibility? Beware the possbility of a weather affected match. It's cold enough in Europe. Lord knows it must be brass monkeys in Russia.
Barcelona - are potentially more vulnerable this season as was seen by the recent 2-3 loss to Osasuna. 1.43 could be eminently layable if we hope Leverkusen put up some home resistance. But the Racing Post might restore faith in Barca as Leverkusen have an apparent injury crisis.
APOEL - seem to be the weakest link. That said, Lyon, like Barca, lost at the weekend ( perhaps, like Barca, they had one eye on these matches?) I would not trust Lyon with stolen money and would look to lay an odds on shot , although a risky ploy as APOEL are not much better.
Braga - have won 7 of their last 10 at home and are on 9 straight victories domestically. Besiktas lost to the likes of Merdin recently in their league and could be vulnerable on the road.

11am -Rubin Kazan v Olympiakos - 2.14 home
530pm - Braga v Besiktas - 1.75 home
745pm - Birmingham v Hull - 1.91 home
HEAD TO HEADS
07.12.2011LChHull City2-1Birmingham City
17.04.2010PRBirmingham City0-0Hull City
19.09.2009PRHull City0-1Birmingham City
24.02.2007LChHull City2-0Birmingham City
09.09.2006LChBirmingham City2-1Hull City

Another of those head to heads which are pretty much shared.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 6th and only 1 point separates these 2 teams both with aspirations  for the title ( and with 1st and 2nd playing this evening, someone will drop points)

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Bru

RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWWDDWWDWWWDW - unbeaten at home and Chris Hughton has instilled that invincibility at home that McLeish engendered. HAve only played 1st, 2nd and 5th , draws against 1st and 2nd and a 3-0 win v 5th. Draws wither 1-0 or 0-0.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLDWDWWWWDW - last 3 defeats away from home, 2 of them were 1-0. Jekyll and Hyde home and away. Real struggles away v top 14.

GOAL TRENDS - 40% overs at home. last 2 matches unders but 4 before that were overs. Have kept a clean sheet in 4 of the last 5 matches.Have only failed to score in 1 of the last 9. Quite eyecatchingly , have scored a massive 19 goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches this season.So if there is a draw coming into the 75th minute, of Hull are leading, consider the lay.

STREAKS - 15 at home without defeat, 9 overall without defeat. No goal conceded in last 3 matches. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Hull

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWDDDWLWLWLLW - Hull have only played one of the top 6 away and that was Saints, a 2-1 loss. All defeats away have come against the top 15 . 

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWWWWLLLWWDW - Only 1 draw in the last 18 matches was a 0-0 2 matches ago.last 3 defeats, 2 of which were away were all 1-0 .2 of last 3 wins were 1-0. 

GOAL TRENDS - 21% overs away from home 0.86 scored and conceded on average away from home.Clean sheets in the last 4 away matches. Only 1 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. 

STREAKS - 8 away without a draw. 4 match clean sheet. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 2 strong stats here. Birmingham have scored 19 goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches this season so inplay traders look at getting involved after 75 minutes in the hope Brum prove strong again in the last 1/4 hour. 21% overs for Hull away from home is a strong stat and their ability to keep a clean sheet in last 4 matches . Birmingham are unbeaten at home and I suspect this will be a low scoring match favouring brum.
FORM LAB
-2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Hull City away matches against top-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 7/9 such matches. Birmingham have scored first in 10/15 home matches.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Under 2.5 match goals v Top half
2) - home 2nd half win v all
3) - HT score 0-0 v all

745pm - Leverkusen v Barcelona - 1.43 away
745pm - Lyon v APOEL - 1.49 home
745pm - West Ham v Southampton - 2.36 home
HEAD TO HEADS
18.10.2011LChSouthampton1-0West Ham
01.08.2008CFSouthampton2-2West Ham
05.04.2003PRSouthampton1-1West Ham
02.12.2002PRWest Ham0-1Southampton
30.01.2002PRSouthampton2-0West Ham
20.10.2001PRWest Ham2-0Southampton

Only 1 relevant head to head. And what chance another tight match in what could be a pivotal match for the title.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 2nd and it is advantage West Ham, top by 1 point and with a game in hand.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - West Ham

RECENT HOME FORM - LDWWLWWDWLWWWW - defeats at home against 4th, 11th and 19th. 2 0-1 defeats against 4th and 19th. Only 2 matches played at home against the top 9, that 0-1 defeat v Cardiff and a 4-0 win v Blackpool. 4 match home winning run includes 2 1-0's and 2 2-1's.These have been rather unconvincing wins.  The win v Forest, for example, saw 2 penalties.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLLWDLWWWLW - 4 wins in last 5 overall is great form. 3 of the last 5 wins were 1-0. 

GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs at home. Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. 

STREAKS - 4 match home winning streak. No draw in 6 at home. Have scored in last 6 at home, and last 8 overall.

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Southampton

RECENT AWAY FORM - 

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
FORM LAB 1st goal: West Ham have scored first in 8/11 home matches while Southampton have conceded first in 8/12 away matches. West Ham have won 9/12 home matches.
TOP 3 INDICATORS
1) - Most match goals 2nd half v all
2) - Home concede last v all
3) - Home score first v all

 LAB



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