1/12

*****ONE A DAY - 805 pm - Man City v Red Bull Salzburg - back Man City in the match odds at 1.28*****

More speculative folk might try a correct scores win to nil if City's defence continue to be as solid as they have been at home. My concern with this match was the 3 on the trot at home in which City have not scored. Surely this can change tonight against far superior opposition. This match is tradeable.




It would have been a completely different story had Obertan scored instead of hit the post, as the favourites would have scored first and the lay odds for the Hammers increased dramatically. On such small margins....
the last 2 days have been terrible, with weather affected all weather and Carling Cup to choose from. On both occasions, choosing the wrong option ( El Classico and Arsenal ready alternatives)

Apprentice hands and heels and a 2 year old claimer kick off Kempton and , seeing Southwell yesterday, it is better to sit tight at the moment .

400 kempton
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Iron Condor, 3/1 Valid Reason, 4/1 Gomrath, 6/1 Agent Archie, 20/1 Dosti.

DIOMED VERDICT: A six-month absence should not count against Gomrath, who won on his seasonal return at Lingfield in March, but IRON CONDOR is progressing well on this surface and can get back on the winning trail following his good C&D second on Sunday.

This is now a 4 horse race for 2 places and Iron Condor was course and distance 2nd last time out, but what effect does the frost have on this all weather surface.

2112 in last 4 at Kempton -horses for courses for Iron Condor?

430 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dark Lane, 5/1 Lord Of The Reins, Vhujon, 15/2 Flash McGahon, 8/1 Breathless Kiss, 9/1 Ray Of Joy, 12/1 Jack Rackham, 16/1 Kylladdie, 25/1 Crown, Little Perisher.

DIOMED VERDICT: There was plenty to like about the way DARK LANE shaped on his belated reappearance and he should go well now he returns to his optimum trip. Lord Of The Reins may give him most to do.

Price gapper in a maximum field - 3 non runners should surely count in Dark Lane's favour.

1pm - Zilina v Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas - 1.12 home - clearly the best side in Slovakia. Slovakian Cup -division 1 v division 2 and 1-0 on 10th November. Away side have lost last 4 and Zilina a little shaky at home - LDDLWD in last 6 at home for them.
6pm - Metalist v Debrecen - 1.19 home - europa league fixture - Debrecen the whipping boys in the europa league?
805pm - Atl Madrid v Aris Thes. - 1.28 home - all to play for with a 1-0 win for Aris in their home leg. Typical greek opposition keep things tough. Madrid have scored 2,2,3,2 in 4 of last 5 home matches but Greeks can be ultra defensive.
805pm - Man City v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.28 - a team from a league of around 10 should really not concern Man City at home. 2-0 to city in first leg should be replicated at home at least. City have not scored in their last 3 at home, and against far weaker opponents in a far weaker league, they must surely make a breakthrough at some stage as long as their primadonnas don't throw a hissy fit because of the weather. The good news for City backers is that this is a must win, with a tricky tie v Juventus coming up and an unexpected 3-1 loss to Lech Poznan.

Faith in City at home? Red Bull are 3rd in a league of 10 and this is a weak league. Surely another set of Mancs cannot scupper things? Will the 4 goals scored against Fulham signal the kind of return to goalscoring form which will ensure City do not go another game at home without scoring?
1-1 and 0-0 against Juventus for Red Bull is good form. In the league they have won their last 3 but remember this is a weak league of only 10 teams.

SHORTLIST

400 Kempton is a 4 horse race now for 2 places on betfair and Iron Condor is 2112 at Kempton in his last 4 runs here , but is the frost and cold going top present us with a different race course ( i.e. the all weather version of heavy?)

805pm - Man City v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.28 - tight at the back, City should be able to shut out Red Bull and get a win which they need tonight . |Good news is that it has the feel of a must win about it. The 4 against Fulham away from home should help persuade to back City to score and not make this a 4th home match on the trot without a goal.







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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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30/11

I am leaving horse racing alone today as I was caught out with the influence the cold had on the all weather surfaces.

*****ONE A DAY - West Ham v Man United - lay West Ham at odds of 5.9. Using Betfair's Max liability function, your stake now becomes your fixed liability. This makes the bet the equivalent of a 1.19 back bet.*****

Always a slight risk with the Carling Cup but I am swayed by United's 3 /5 wins in the Competition in the last 5 seasons.





It would seem that the weather affected the all weather, as The Big Hearth did not seem to handle the slower surface and increased kick back. I should have left all racing alone and focussed on el Classico yesterday.

745pm - Arsenal v Wigan - 1.26 home - lots of postponements today and we are left with the Carling Cup which the managers historically have treated with disdain. Wenger looking to take this seriously.

745pm - West Ham v Man Utd - 1.71 away - I would look to lay West Ham tonight at 5.8 - laying at 5.8 is around 1.19.
Man Utd have won the Carling Cup in 3 of the last 5 seasons so old Red Nose is taking this seriously.


TENNIS - AEGON MASTERS

1pm - Rafter v Cash - 1.2 Rafter
845pm - Enqvist v Bates - 1.17 Enqvist

The elderly get a run out in the tennis. Trust the odds?

100 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Misscomplacent, 7/2 Beyaz Villas, Heresellie, 7/1 Just For Leo, Liberty Ess, 10/1 Algris, Je Suis Unrockstar, 14/1 Molly Mylenis, 25/1 Mujapiste, 66/1 Mrs Nisbett, Ngina, 100/1 Bigalo´s Vera B, Likeable Lad.

DIOMED VERDICT: MISSCOMPLACENT has yet to tackle Fibresand but she's otherwise got plenty in her favour and she should go close if handling this surface.

A class 6 seller which is the same race type as yesterday.

8 horses left and 3 places and there are 4 under 20/1 but how will Southwell run today. Remember the effect the weather had on Wolverhampton yesterday?

115 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Matsunosuke, 4/1 Lewyn, 5/1 Ebraam, 8/1 Silaah, 12/1 Dancing Freddy, 20/1 Brandywell Boy, Wanchai Whisper, 100/1 Hatman Jack, The Magic Of Rio.

DIOMED VERDICT: MATSUNOSUKE ran a fine race off a mark of 105 last time and he had previously won his last two starts in claiming company.

Still odds on but another class 6 claimer.


SHORTLIST

I think I will leave Southwell well alone having learned, the hard way, regarding frost and its affect on all weather surfaces and the kickback.

115 LINGFIELD - like yesterday, can we really trust these class 6 horses to consistently give their running? 1.17 to place.
3 of the 9 runners are 33/1 or bigger so hopefully it is a 6 runner race for 3 places.

745pm - Arsenal v Wigan - 1.26 home - Wigan's record at Arsenal is terrible. 4-0 latest but beat Arsenal at Wigan 3-2 latest. Carling Cup and I suspect this far into the competition Wenger would like to go through.

745pm - West Ham v Man Utd - 1.71 away 5.9 to 6 for West Ham and this looks layable . It will be the equivalent of a 1.19 back bet and covers the draw.

845pm - Enqvist v Bates - 1.17 Enqvist - looks perfectly reasonable given this is Jeremy Bates in opposition. Highly illiquid market.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

No horse racing today for me until the turf returns.

745pm - Arsenal v Wigan - 1.26 home - won 6 of last 7 clashes, and this late on, surely Arsenal will want to see it through this Carling Cup and be in with a chance of some silverware.
No Fabregas this evening a major concern for me. He can change a potentially tight match.


745pm - West Ham v Man Utd - 1.71 away - quite obviously, having won the Carling Cup in 3 of the last 5 occasions, United take this seriously now.
United also have a 28 match unbeaten run. Last 3 results have been 3-0, 4-0, 4-0 to United ( albeit with a Premiership set up)

Laying West Ham is very tempting for me. 5.9 -6 1.19 equivalent back bet.







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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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29/11

*****ONE A DAY - 245 WOLVES - The Big Hearth to place only, around 1.11 currently.*****




1255 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 American Trilogy, 5/2 Pascha Bere, 11/4 Rougham, 12/1 Shadow Dancer, 16/1 Quartano, 100/1 Bold Pioneer.

Amazing there is racing today.This beginners chase should involve the front 3, all very well known hurdlers. Now 2 will place and one will not . american Trilogy takes on the mantle of favouratism but has a recent nasty fall to psychologically overcome.
The other 2 market principles cannot be split although a hint of money on Pascha Bere.
Tough one to call as all 3 are tight enough in the betting and this is a beginners chase where errors are likely from all participants.

200 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Handtheprizeover, 11/2 Chord, Flying Squad, 6/1 Forever Emo, 13/2 Fongoli, Quapriland, 9/1 Pete The Feat, 10/1 Walk Tall, 20/1 Stop The Show, 33/1 Bajan Sunshine.

DIOMED VERDICT: HANDTHEPRIZEOVER may be able to follow up his Towcester win off the same mark. Quapriland and handicap newcomer Forever Emo look most interesting of the others.

Price gapper here in this handicap chase. handtheprizeover is 13/8 with next best 8/1 - that is some price gap for a handicap.

245 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 The Big Haerth, 7/1 Spin Again, 10/1 Apache Ridge, Fol Liam, Rebellious Spirit, 14/1 I Confess, 20/1 Landucci, 33/1 Carnival Dream, Lockantanks, 50/1 Cheshire Lady, 66/1 Craicattack,

DIOMED VERDICT: Impossible to oppose THE BIG HAERTH, who landed the odds over C&D a fortnight ago from Rebellious Spirit and Apache Ridge with Landucci back in seventh and meets all three on the same terms today.

The Big Hearth was taken out of his last race, as I remember Aprils Fool won it. " impossible to oppose" and a huge price gap 4/9 - - - -7/1 here.
My concern is he is 1211 already in last 4 runs and this sequence will end some time, but certainly not priced to do so today.

A class 6 seller but a good horse for the grade?

340 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lady Hight, 15/8 Dream Function, 9/2 Kentford Grey Lady, 13/2 Milly Malone, 16/1 Charlotte´s Ball, Farewellatmidnight, 28/1 Primadora, 33/1 Brooklands B, 40/1 Iris Miller, 50/1 Luna Lightning.

DIOMED VERDICT: It's a bit of a nightmare (for punters) that Lady Hight and DREAM FUNCTION have bumped into each other as they both went into the notebook as likely bumper winners on their respective debuts. It could go either way but marginal preference is for Philip Hobbs's mare.

Another bumper and this early on, the market sees this as a 4 horse race. 5 one time outers and 5 debutants mean that, in an ideal world, the betting market would be consulted at 335pm and not now.
As things stand, the 2 market principles Lady Hight and Dream Function stand out on form shown thus far and the hope is, in a race where currently there are 4 only under 16/1 , we can hope 1) these 4 dominate at the business end, and 2) Lady and Dream finish in the first 3.

8pm - Barcelona v Real Madrid - 2.2 - quite frankly, this is the game which will determine the La Liga title. There are 2 el classico's this season and any team who wins the matches will have a distinct advantage as these 2 cannot be split and are likely to blitz all infront of them this season.

Its importance has meant 2 tight scorelines the last 2 matches 2-0 and 1-0, both to Barcelona.
1.26 over 1.5 goals is quite high as we do not know the approach of the Special One to this match. It could as easily be a 1-0 as 0-0.

SHORTLIST
As both sides must win, perhaps laying the draw can make some profit from a trading perspective. A late breakthrough by one team would be a real boon.

245 WOLVES - The Big Hearth is a huge price gapper - faith in the betting market here for this course and distance winner who has won 3 of his last 4. Slight niggle that it is a seller. 1.1 to place

340 FOLKSTONE - chance the numbers 1 and 2 jump jockeys on Lady Hight and Dream Function to both place in a race where only 4 are under 16/1 ?
Both are promising one time outers but it is a race where the market ideally needs consulting nearer to 340 than 1040am!!
Lady Hight is clear place only favourite at 1.27 to place - take our cues from the place market?

Laying real Madrid halftime/fulltime is 6.8 is around a 1.16 back bet. Surely home advantage can tell for Barca to at least reach halftime ahead or on parity with Real?

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

All of the above 3 are enticing, but who is more clear cut? The Big Hearth is the biggest price gapper of the day and if the market is accurate with these price gappers, should place at least. A course and distance winner, and a reduced field of 8 runners and 3 places.





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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

28/11

The weather has put paid to the horse racing. It is a poor card at Kempton where you would have to put your faith in 2 year olds or handicappers. No thanks

As to the football, well I quite fancy Shaktar and Partizan today based on the form, but these are simply match odds only matches with no in play capabilities.

Ajax should win today against a very poor VVV but Ajax have been out of sorts of late and let down at short odds on more than one occasion, but again VVV have lost 9 of last 12 .

*****ONE A DAY - NO BET TODAY***** Nothing near as solid as Anderlecht today.
Speculators might like Rangers today given their goalscoring prowess away from home. But what of the weather?





Nice result for Anderlecht, and if I knew that Berbatov was going to break into a sweat, and Blackburn were going to roll over and get their tummy's tickled, well, Man Utd would have been the ones at better odds.

1200pm - Dundee Utd v Rangers - 1.7 away - Celtic gave away a 2 goal lead yesterday - heaven for traders and hell for old fashioned bettors. can Rangers take advantage?
They have a game in hand 2 points so a win can really put some daylight between the 2 sides.
But 1.7 away tells you this will be a toughy for Rangers today.
One hiccup at home v Hibs has been recovered with 2 wins on the trot , home and away.
Last 3 in the league and Rangers have won the last 2 and drawn 0-0.
100% away record for Rangers 100% of away games have seen over 2.5 goals for Rangers.
In 5 away matches Rangers have scored 3 goals and in the other matches they have scored 2 goals. Interestingly, on only 1 of these 7 matches have Rangers kept an away clean sheet.
Rangers have already beaten Dundee United 4-0 at home this season, but dare I remind you that they were equally as impressive against Hibs until losing inexplicably at home 3-0.
Dundee United have not won home and away against any of the top 5 sides. At home, they have lost 2-1 v Celtic and 4-0 against a resurgent Caley Thistle.
I would expect a similar scoreline to that of Celtic as Rangers are scoring 2 or more away and also conceding in all bar one of their away matches. 1.7 therefore could be a juicy price, at least tradeable if Rangers score first or take the lead at any stage.
130pm - VVV v Ajax - 1.37 away - a win takes a stuttering Ajax into 3rd place, where they really belong at the top along with PSV and Twente. Ajax have scored 7 and 4 in their 2 2010 and 2009head to heads without conceding. Ajax have not won in their last 3 matches. Something of a crisis really with 2 wins and a draw DWWDDWL away from home for Ajax - only lost 1 match away. Ajax's last 2 matches have been against AZ and Twente so perhaps it is not a shock that they lost and drew.
15 matches and 3 wins and 12 losses for VVV. Not a draw in sight. The wins were 2 1-0's against 12th and 14th, and 4-1 win against bottom side ( VVV are 2nd bottom)
VVV have lost all home matches against top 4 sides and this should be an ideal opportunity for Ajax to get a much needed 3 points. But can Ajax be trusted. Last season I think they only lost 1 match all season!
2pm - Shakhtar v Arsenal Kiev - 1.21 home - only one loss in all competitions in last 12 for Shaktar was against Arsenal FC - 9 game winning streak in all competitions for Shaktar. Go with momentum?
12/12 at home for Shaktar in all competitions - mighty impressive. Slight warning - 6 of the matches have been 1-0's Shaktar have scored 3,4,3,3 in last 4 head to heads -comprehensive wins.
LLWWLDLDW for Arsenal Kiev in the league.
WLDWLWDLW - reasonable away form but inconsistent.
4pm - Partizan Belgrade v FK Metalac - 1.16 home - 3-1 and 2-0 in head to heads for Partizan in 2010 and 2009.
3 losses in last 12 have all been in Champions League and 9 wins away from those matches.
4,4,3,3,1,5 -the goals scored in the league by Partizan links in with the 1.16 quote.
2 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses for Metalac - interestingly Metalac are WLW in their last 3 - signs of a revival?
But Partizan are proven ultra consistent high goalscorers, and have proved themselves against this opposition.
8pm - Valencia v Almeria - 1.42 home - are Almeria vulnerable now given Barca kicked them into touch last time out.
3,3,2 -the goals Valencia have scored against Almeria in their last 3 most recent head to heads.
WDWLDW at home for Valencia this season. 5 wins and a draw in their first 6 matches saw Valencia as contenders and then the wheels fell off!!
Almeria have only won 1 match all season.
DLDDDLL for Almeria last 7 matches includes 4 1-1 draws , 2 1-0 losses and an anomolous 8-0 tonking by Barcelona.
DLWLDL away for Almeria.

Only Kempton survives and begins with a class 7 0-50 handicap - hardly a compelling start.

245 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Palais Glide, 4/1 Encore View, Fairy Familiar, 5/1 Echo Ridge, 8/1 Radiant Dream, 33/1 Dangerous Illusion, 50/1 Pink Sari, 66/1 Heavenly Pursuit, Liberal Lady, 100/1 Ippi N Tombi, Sea Of Love,

DIOMED VERDICT: Several interesting newcomers, including Echo Ridge, Encore View and Radiant Dream, but the well-drawn PALAIS GLIDE may be able to build on her recent encouraging debut Lingfield third from the plum draw.

5 horses under 50/1 here makes this an interesting probability race. 5 debutants, 4 one time outers makes this a difficult maiden race to get involved in - the debutants could be anything and the one time outers are naturally open to improvement.

350 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Sinfonico, 5/2 Groomed, 5/1 Abysse, 12/1 Towering Storm, 14/1 Dunhoy, 20/1 If You Whisper, 25/1 Kristollini, 33/1 Sir Randolf, 50/1 Bodie, 100/1 Jam Maker.

DIOMED VERDICT: A couple of interesting newcomers but Groomed and SINFONICO have both already shown enough ability to win a race of this nature and can make their experience tell.

4 under 20/1 here and Sinfonico and Groomed to dominate? Will these 4 horses fight out the 3 places.


SHORTLIST
130pm - VVV v Ajax - 1.37 away - Ajax will be adrift if they don't win against a side who have lost 9 of their last 12 matches. But Ajax are stuttering at present. Faith in them today away from home?
2pm - Shakhtar v Arsenal Kiev - 1.21 home - mighty impressive at present, should we stick with Shaktar while this amazing winning run continues, especially against a side which they have scored 3+ against in their last 4 matches. Only match odds.
4pm - Partizan Belgrade v FK Metalac - 1.16 home - highly illiquid and only match odds available.






--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

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Romford, RM6 5SS

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Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

26/11

*****ONE A DAY - 7pm - Anderlecht v Charleroi - Back Anderlecht in the match odds at 1.19*****




Job done yesterday and I managed to shortlist Smad Place , 8/1 victor over Dolatulo.

200pm - Dinamo Kiev v Sevastopol - 1.15 home -2 2010 head to heads, one cup and one league match. Both away wins for Dinamo Kiev should augur well for a home match.
3 losses, 2 draws and 7 wins for Kiev.
Last 2 matches have been draws so this sequence is at least priced to end today. Slight wobble at home last 2 matches loss and a draw.
5 game losing streak for Sevastapol started with a cup win for Kiev.
2nd v 2nd from bottom. No in running.LLLLDLL away from home in the league for Sevastapol.
2pm - Videoton v Siofok - 1.28 home - 1 loss and 1 draw in last 12 only for Videoton. Good form.5 wins and a loss in last 6 at home.
LLWWLDW away for Siofok in the league - sign of a revival last 2?
Videoton have changed their name recently.
230pm - B Munich v Frankfurt - 1.39 home - in running - surprisingly this is 8th v 7th in the Bundesliga - WDWDWD for Bayern in last 6 - all wins at home and all draws away.
Bayern have scored 3,4,3 in their last 3 home matches, this after some poor form WDDL in previous 4 home matches. Mario Gomez is the man of the moment for Bayern.
Frankfurt won last head to heads in March 2010 but Bayern scored first. Looks like a revival at home for Bayern. Enough to back them at 1.39?
LLWWWDWWDL for Frankfurt - solid middle section. Lost last match 4-0 at home to Hoffenheim.
5 home wins on the trot in all competitions a good sign for Bayern backers.
LWLWWWD for Frankfurt away from home in the league is solid away form. LAst draw was 0-0 v Werder Bremen who conceded 6 and 4 recently to other Bundesliga sides - no goals scored for Frankfurt in their last 2 matches a sign of something?
71% of Bayern's home matches and 86% of Frankfurt's away matches have been over 2.5 goals. Over 1.5 goals bet therefore?1.19 over 1.5 goals.
With Bayern's new found home goalscoring and Frankfurt's alarming concession rate last game, this could be the bet.

3pm - Brighton v FC United Manchester - 1.27 home - FA CUP - League 1 versus 2nd from bottom in the Unibond Premier (Northern) League - a simple matter of hoping that the gulfs in the leagues takes care of things.
WDDWWWWDLDDD for Brighton in last 12 ( latest last) - slight concern re draws last 3. Not in running so an opinion has to be made without trading in mind.
3pm - Celtic v Inverness CT - 1.27 home - in running - 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, then suddenly 6-0 in head to heads. Tight then capitulation. WWWWLWD at home for the Bhoys. Last 3 matches have seen only 1 win. Inverness are unbeaten away from home -2 1-1 draws with Hibs and Rangers mean we must treat them with respect, particularly given the tight matches in head to heads before the 6-0 Celtic win last time out .
The away record is too good for me for put this match up, especially seeing the loss and draw in 2 of Celtic's last 3 matches.
3pm - Colchester v Swindon Supermarine - 1.28 home - League 1 v Southern Premier
3pm - Huddersfield v Macclesfield - 1.45 home - league 1 v league 2 - I would prefer to see a bigger gap in leagues ( see earlier)
3pm - Man Utd v Blackburn - 1.29 home - in running - Man Utd have won the last 3 head to heads at home, won 1 and drawn 2 away at Blackburn.
level on points with Chelsea who have superior goal difference, United are ideally positioned to take advantage of any Chelsea slip ups.
6 wins and a draw at home for United and they have not failed to score less than 2 at home this season.
The draw saw Man Utd 2-0 up v West Brom!
United are unbeaten in their last 12 in all competitions with only 4 draws
Only 2 draws in last 12 at home - and they were both avoidable ( weakened side v Rangers and 2-0 up v west Brom)
DDLWLDLLWWLW for Blackburn this season in last 12 in all competitions - note the 3 wins and a loss in last 4 - a sign of something?
The wins were v Newcastle, Wigan and Villa.
4 losses, 2 wins and a draw away from home for Blackburn. Interestingly, when hosting Chelsea and Arsenal, they lost 2-1. This 2 goal concession rate ties in with United's record of scoring 2 or more per home match this season.
A sign of things to come?
71% - the percentage of United's home and Blackburn's away matches which have ended over 2.5 goals - 7 out of every 10 matches.
3pm - Southampton v Cheltenham - 1.36 home - league 1 v league 2 in the FA Cup. Soton are unbeaten in their last 8 at home - 6 wins with a draw at either end.
410pm - APOEL v Olympiakos Nicosia - 1.23 home - in running - one loss , a draw and 10 wins for APOEL - no wonder they are fancied at home. 7 game winning streak.
10 wins on the trot in all competitions at home for APOEL. 5 of last 8 matches have had 1-0 winning scorelines for APOEL so the Greekish scoreline is rubbing off on the Cypriots it would seem.
LDDLDDWDWWDD for Nicosia - they like their draws! 0-0, 0-1, 1-1 last 3 Nicosia scorelines. Is this one of those matches with a scarcity of goals? APOEL have shown at home they can score 3 and 2 when they want to.
530pm - Dortmund v Mgladbach - 1.32 home - in running - top v bottom. Dortmund are not a team I would have associated with the leadership of the Bundesliga. Only loss in last 12 was against Sevilla in the Europa league.LWWWDW at home this season.
4 game winning streak.
Head to heads - Dortmund won the last won, but Mgladbach won the one before. ( that was a club friendly)
Only 2 wins all season for Mgaldbach - 1 win 3 losses away from home.
100% of Mgladbach's away matches have been over 2.5 goals. BUT only 17% of Dortmund's home matches have been over 2.5 goals ( they have won the odd match 2-0 though!!)

7pm - Anderlecht v Charleroi - 1.19 home - in running - must win for home side as they are 2 points shy of top spot. 5 wins and 2 draws at home this season .WWWWWD for head to heads - last head to head was a 0-0 draw in August 2010 away from home
Playing the bottom side today.
They have only1 win, a home win v 2nd from bottom at home.
11 matches without a win, when playing top 6, they have lost the 3 away matches .

1225 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Binocular, 11/4 Peddlers Cross, 9/2 Starluck, 14/1 Nearby, 66/1 Bygones Of Brid.

DIOMED VERDICT: BINOCULAR can account for rising star Peddlers Cross if anywhere near his Champion Hurdle-winning best.

This is pretty much a 4 horse race for 2 places and 2 standout horses in Binocular and Peddlers Cross.

230 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Big Buck´s, 7/1 Duc De Regniere, 9/1 Kayf Aramis, 14/1 Duke Of Lucca, 33/1 Arcalis, 500/1 Spider Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: Undefeated in eight races since reverting to hurdles almost two years ago, BIG BUCK'S can hardly be opposed. Duc De Regniere can complete the forecast. Huge price gapper and an absence to overcome ( for most of the bigboys today) and Big Buck's is stand out - 2 places should mean that the place price is higher than it would be in an 8 runner /3 places affair 305 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port, 8/1 Diamond Harry, Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks, Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, Neptune Collonges, 20/1 Carruthers, Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature, 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop, Niche Market, 50/1 Dream Alliance, Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran, DIOMED VERDICT: Denman may have to settle for minor honours this time. The chief threat at these weights should be Neptune Collonges but, with a question over whether he will be quite fit enough, the vote goes to DIAMOND HARRY who heads a fascinating bunch of second-season chasers, ahead of Pandorama. 20 runners and a handicap means 4 places - faith in "the tank"? 420 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Guided Missile, 4/1 Whistle On By, 11/2 Logans Legend, Russian Affair, 8/1 Captain Noble, Robin Hoods Bay, 12/1 Quality Art, Steenbok, 25/1 Konstantin, Rambo Will, 28/1 Dysios. DIOMED VERDICT: The 75-rated Whistle On By sets no more than a fair standard and there are a few runners with the potential to improve past him, notably GUIDED MISSILE who is from a family that her connections have had plenty of success with and should build on a promising debut at Newmarket. 11/10 - - - 5/1 price gapper based on a single run and is making an all weather debut today. Trust the market? 450 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Majestic Bright, 5/2 Countenance Divine, Private Joke, 13/2 Handsome King, 14/1 Lady Rossetti, 50/1 Dashwood, 66/1 Quahadi, Surprise Us, DIOMED VERDICT: MAJESTIC BRIGHT has the best form on offer, at least on AW, and looks open to more progress. Market confidence behind well-bred newcomer Private Joke and/or long-absent Countenance Divine would be highly significant. An interesting market this one with 3 at 40/1 or bigger. Another maiden alas and a debutant 2nd fav, but faith in MAjestic Bright to place in the first 3 in effectively a 4 horse race ( if we discount the 20/1 horse) 720 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: Evs Majuro, 6/4 Orchard Supreme, 8/1 Just Jimmy, 10/1 Ella Grace, 25/1 Saving Grace, 33/1 Athboy Auction, 50/1 Chifah, Gilderoy, 100/1 Kirkby´s Gem, Marsh´s Gift, Old Firm, Whispering Ridge. DIOMED VERDICT: MAJURO will appreciate this drop into selling company and can prove too strong for Orchard Supreme in receipt of 5lb.

2 dominate -and if getting involved, we have to assume both will place in this seller.


SHORTLIST
200pm - Dinamo Kiev v Sevastopol - 1.15 home - 2nd v 2nd from bottom. Slight lack of form for Dinamo Kiev but Sevastapol on a 5 game losing streak. Match odds only and not in running

230pm - B Munich v Frankfurt - 1.39 home - 1.19 over 1.5 goals is interesting given Bayern have been consistently scoring 3 or more in recent home matches. Frankfurt conceded 4 last time out.
I would prefer a neutral goals bet because Frankfurt have solid away form.

3pm - Brighton v FC United Manchester - 1.27 home - step too far for United's poorer younger brother? 2nd from bottom in the Unibond Premier. Illiquid market.

3pm - Colchester v Swindon Supermarine - 1.28 home - huge gulf in leagues - League 1 v Southern Premier

3pm - Man Utd v Blackburn - 1.29 home - very dismissive of Blackburn but doffing its hat to the United unbeaten run and home form.
I would consider trading this 1.29 if United score or lead.
1.23 over 1.5 goals is very interesting given United score 2+ at home every game and United's home anad Blackburn's away 2.5 goals stat is 71%

530pm - Dortmund v Mgladbach - 1.32 home - top v bottom. Top are at home, bottom have only 2 wins all season. Faith in home side here?

7pm - Anderlecht v Charleroi - 1.19 home - must win as they are 2 points shy of top spot. Away side one win all season v 2nd from bottom. like the above match, this is 2nd v bottom, 2nd are at home and solid looking. Ideal opportunity for 3 points here if the form is accurate and there are no injuries.

230 NEWBURY - This Big BUck's is the real deal. 1.12 to place is a little stingy, but a clear round should suffice for this very big price gapper.

305 NEWBURY - 4 places allow us a speculative chance on Denman? The Tank will certainly be giving his all.

450 KEMPTON - an interesting race price wise. Faith in Majestic Bright to place in a race where only 4 are under 16/1

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

3pm - Colchester v Swindon Supermarine - 1.28 home - huge gulf in leagues and a relaticely big price for Colchester. Faith in League 1 over the Southern Premier?

530pm - Dortmund v Mgladbach - 1.32 home - top v bottom - the unexpected can occur with Mgladbach but I would hope home advantage will see Dortmund through here. If there is a chance to trade, perhaps that should be considered.

7pm - Anderlecht v Charleroi - 1.19 home - this looks rock solid to me with Anderlecht needing a win against a team with only one win all season and that was against their neighbours at the basement of the league.

230 NEWBURY - Big Buck's should place with ease at 1.12 with a clear round.

26/11

*****ONE A DAY - 330 MUSSELBURGH - First Rock to place only*****
1.16 to place and a hope that the 3 under 16/1 will dominate with odds on First Rock placing at least ( having placed twice)
Always a danger with bumpers that there are dark horses lurking ( as there can be stable gambles)




No problem with Silver Gypsy.

1230 - Lokomotiva v Hrvatski Dragovoljac - 1.44 home - Croatian Top flight - strong favs have only won 3 in last 12, drawn 1 and lost 8! And they are 1.44. Are their opponents playing with blindfolds on?
This is 14th against 16th ( bottom) - how can we trust 14th place to be consistent?
Away side have lost 9, drawn 2 and won 1 in their last 12 matches. This is in running.
In 5 of the away side's last 8 matches, Hrv have conceded 6,4,4,3,3 - perhaps a goals bet today?

7pm - Dordrecht v Almere - 1.41 home - 12th against 17th - 10 of Dordrecht's last 11 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
They have only won 1 game at home.
Almere have only won 2 all season.
LLLWLLL away matches for Almere this season.
71% of their away matches have been over 2.5 goals. Not in running No head to heads under the name "Almere" but there were head to heads under "Omniworld"
7pm - Helmond Sport v Fortuna Sittard - 1.31 home - 5th against bottom , hence the short price.Home side have only won 2 at home in 7, and lost 4-2 to 3rd bottom Almere at home. Inconsistent. The only reason they are so short is because Fortuna are poor.

0-0, 0-4 ( Helmond win) , 3-1 ( Fortuna win), 2-2 in last 4 head to heads is hardly compelling for Helmond Sport.
Helmond have not won in their last 4 matches . LDLL
DDLWLL at home in last 6 matches at home is poor. But glass half full? Well this losing sequence could end today.

1 win, 2 draws and 9 losses in last 12 for Almere.LLDLLL in last 6 matches.
6,5,3,6,3,4,3,3,4,3,4,6 the goals in Almere's last 12 matches.
They have conceded 4,4,3,3 in last 4 matches.
Have lost 10, drawn 2 in last 12 away matches.
4,3,3,3,2,3,3,3,3,2 goals conceded away ( latest first)

Trust an out of form at home Helmond against proven conceders? But 0-0 last time in head to heads. Oh what a conundrum!!
745pm - Breda v PSV - 1.51 away - only 1 loss in last 12 for PSV in all competitions and that was against Twente. Drew last time v Ajax 0-0 - pretty much stalemate against 2 balanced sides.
WDDWWWD away for PSV , so lay Breda?
PSV have not won away in head to heads v Breda. LLD

Breda are relatively solid at home, beating Twente 2-1, 6 wins, draw and loss at home.
6 wins in their last 7 home matches are good for Breda.

Only 1 draw in last 12 matches for both sides.




1230 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Dolatulo, 9/2 Smad Place, 6/1 On Khee, 12/1 Missionaire, 20/1 Professeur Emery, 33/1 Meglio Ancora, 100/1 Cuts Both Ways, Joan´s Legacy, Lamps.

DIOMED VERDICT: This is no open goal for the penalised DOLATULO but there was a lot to like about the way he went about his business at Sandown.

4 under 25/1 here and a strong market leader for Nicholls and McCoy.1.09 to place
Smad Place perhaps the value alternative as this should be 4 horses under 25/1

125 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Stratton Banker, 7/2 Clear Praise, 9/2 Cape Royal, 8/1 Cloth Ears, 10/1 Schoolboy Champ, 12/1 Six Diamonds, Triple Dream, 14/1 Fromsong, Wanchai Whisper, 16/1 Avonvalley.

DIOMED VERDICT: It's not hard to be drawn to STRATTON BANKER who looked unlucky last time and is still unexposed at this trip. Fellow 3yo Clear Praise is also open to more progress.

Consistent placer and 13/8 and all red. 5 furlong handicap on the all weather exposes tardiness.

210 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Celestial Halo, 6/4 Spirit River, 6/1 Cois Farraig, 10/1 On Borrowed Wings, 14/1 Erzen.

DIOMED VERDICT: SPIRIT RIVER went a long way in a short space of time over hurdles and could be a very smart novice chaser in the making.

Remember Celestial Halo? faller on chase debut when 1/4. Has fallen in last 2 races , so from a sequencing perspective we should not expect him to fall again - surely?

255 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Kosta Brava, 11/4 The Cockney Squire, 7/1 Bob´s Dream, 10/1 Follow The Sun, 16/1 Kit Carson.

DIOMED VERDICT: KOSTA BRAVA is not a particularly safe conveyance over fences but comes here in good form and has been found a good opportunity to gain his second win in this sphere. The Cockney Squire looks the most likely danger.

4 horses and 2 places. Kosta is now 1/3 - a chase race." not a particularly safe conveyance" - not too confident

330 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 First Rock, Pompan, 5/1 Thurnham, 20/1 Big Sam, Blazing Bay, Plutonium, 25/1 Little Fifi, 50/1 Lemon Queen, Tobayornottobay.

DIOMED VERDICT: First Rock looks likely to put up a strong resistance but POMPAN made a promising debut in what already looks a hot contest at Uttoxeter last month and it's reasonable to expect he can improve with that experience under his belt.

Only 3 under 16/1

400 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Shostakovich, 9/2 Miss Toldyaso, 8/1 Molly Mylenis, 10/1 Dunmore Boy, 12/1 Georgian Silver, Shutupandrive, 16/1 Bon Appetit, 20/1 Misty Morn, 66/1 Hannah Cann, Welsh Dresser.

DIOMED VERDICT: SHOSTAKOVICH has bags of early toe to negate a wide draw and his rider's claim can offset most of his penalty.

Has won last 2 - wide draw today, claimer on board but still fancied and one of only 2 under 10/1

705 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kitty Wells, 5/1 Carlton Scroop, Treacle Tart, 11/2 Cozy Tiger, 8/1 Muzo, Parhelion, 14/1 Houston Dynimo, 16/1 Penang Cinta.

DIOMED VERDICT: COZY TIGER is unexposed for all he is a 5yo and his last piece of form in better grade has worked out well.

8 runners down to 6 and still 3 places.

Fallon/Cumani market leader in what is now a 50/50 race.

900 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Lovers Causeway, 9/2 Denny Crane, 5/1 Star Power, 6/1 Hawk Flight, 8/1 Home Secretary, Kalacan, Kevkat, The Pier, 10/1 Wikaala, 14/1 Grand Opera, Solo Performer, 16/1 Bashkirov, 25/1 Lord Chancellor, Queen Andromache,

Fanning/Johnston in a 900 race in Dundalk. A pity this is only 14 runners , as with 2 more runners we could have had 4 places. But is Lovers Causeway a good choice?


SHORTLIST

What a difficult day! The football sees, predominantly, matches featuring out of form short priced teams playing, erm, even more out of form opponents!!

7pm - Helmond Sport v Fortuna Sittard - 1.31 home 5th v bottom is a fine example, with Helmond losing their last 2 home matches and drawing 0-0 in last head to head.

1230 NEWBURY - Dolatulo looks primed for a place - very obvious of course. 1.09 to place may just have to be taken in such a poor day.

255 MUSSELBURGH - Kosta Brava should be able to make use of a smaller field - -4 horses and 2 places. Has run 5 chases in last 6.
1.1 to place for a 50/50 chance " not a particularly safe conveyance" !!! so says Diomed!

330 MUSSELBURGH - 2 2nds in similar grade for First Rock, and now 10/11 1.16 to place, and is also running in another bumper. Only 3 horses under 14/1 here and no chase fences!!

705 WOLVES - 8 down to 6 runners and still 3 places. I am drawn to the Cumani/Fallon horse here 11/8 in places - can he place in the first 3 ?Illiquid market and I would simply play the probabilities and hope a favourite will not get beaten by 3 in a 6 horse race.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1230 NEWBURY - Dolatulo - 1.09 to place and should place with a clear round. My concern( and it is illogical) is McCoy onboard. He tends to tip up when a one a day choice!!

330 MUSSELBURGH - First Rock should place in another bumper race. As we saw yesterday, bumpers are ideally tackled before the race. Only 3 under 16/1 here - illiquid market and around 1.15 to place but not much cash up at the moment.

705 WOLVES - simply play the probabilities here - 6 horses and 3 places.






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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

25/11

Strong candidates today. I plumped for Silver Gypsy as it looks as if the horse justifies the short odds , and with near market rival out, should have a better chance of placing. Yes, we should ideally leave heavy ground venues alone, but it is the first race of the day at Uttoxeter and the horse has run, and placed, on heavy ground last twice.

****ONE A DAY - 1220 UTTOXETER - Silver Gypsy to place only***** - 1.11 currently.

I must comment that it looks like a strong message today. I only wish that the betting gods would spread these opportunities evenly over other days!




3 for Spurs. Nice to see Club Oceanic win too, obviously battered in by someone and spotted via 16/1 system and "all red" system

1220 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Silver Gypsy, 4/1 Lethal Glaze, 7/1 Autumn Haze, 10/1 Grey Gold, 14/1 Letmespeak, 20/1 Russian Music, 25/1 Cluain Alainn, Lordship, Short Supply, 33/1 Barrie Burn, 50/1 Frankie Falco, 100/1 Daggerman, Sacco D´Oro, South Stack.

DIOMED VERDICT: Lethal Glaze will be a big threat if fancying the challenge but SILVER GYPSY looks the one to be with. 2nd fav out makes Silver Gypsy, 2nd to 1/3 shot L'accordioniste on heavy last time, an obvious contender now battered into 1/3 1.11 to place 1235 THURLES BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Catch Me, 5/1 Apt Approach, Clan Tara, 11/2 Lenabane, 6/1 Florida Express, 7/1 Lucky At Last, 8/1 Elysian Rock, 33/1 Lingual Cusp, Pink Suitcase. 2 non runners make Catch me interesting 110 TAUNTON BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 That´Ll Do, 11/4 Nicene Creed, 11/2 Yukon Quest, 10/1 My Brother Sylvest, 14/1 Nosecond Chance, 20/1 Bally Legend, 40/1 Casper´s Shadow, Flora King, 50/1 Mi Money, Shared Secret, Sheezatreasure, 66/1 Flameproof, Graduation Night, Reefer Beefer. DIOMED VERDICT: THAT'LL DO can take another step up the ladder. Only 5 under 25/1 125 UTTOX BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 My Boy Paddy, 11/4 Bled, 3/1 Back Bob Back, 5/1 Definite Dawn, 33/1 Domoly, Duke Of Ormond, Hardwick Wood, 100/1 Northorsouth. DIOMED VERDICT: Bled is vulnerable with the penalty and this may concern former pointers MY BOY PADDY and Back Bob Back. Only 4 under 33/1 and My Boy odds on with 2 good heavy runs last time. 135 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Finian´s Rainbow, 9/4 Sang Bleu, 11/2 Hell´s Bay. DIOMED VERDICT: FINIAN'S RAINBOW gets slight preference over Sang Bleu. 3 horses and 2 places.Simple probability in this novices chase. If the fav completes surely he has a great place only chance? 135 THURLES BETTING FORECAST: Evs Uncle Junior, 5/1 Western Charmer, 8/1 Fen Game, 10/1 Eagle´s Pass, Prairie Call, 12/1 Gentle Alice, Maryiver, Renewed Challenge, 14/1 Le Reveur, 20/1 Beneficial Spirit, Mountain Lough, Toby Ben, 33/1 Drive On Jim, First In Line, Old Sars Hall, Waltzing Tornado, Has chase experience and is a price gapper for Mullins. The last Mullins horse I mentioned had many negatives, but this guy has recent chase experience. 210 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Zarrafakt, 13/2 Flemish Invader, Prince Geeno, 15/2 Sound Stage, 8/1 Buffalo Bob, 9/1 Sir Ian, 12/1 Nostringsattached, Thetwincamdrift, 14/1 Or Bleu, 25/1 Regal Heights, 40/1 The Vicar. DIOMED VERDICT: ZARRAFAKT, 6lb ahead of the handicapper, can supplement last week's Folkestone's gains but there are plenty of interesting alternatives, including another recent winner Flemish Invader. Price gapper ahead of handicapper in this handicap chase. 350 NEWBURY BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Balding Banker, 7/2 Gospel Preacher, 4/1 Flowerdew, Nomansland, 16/1 Next Man In, 25/1 Virginia Rose Wood, 33/1 Fourovakind, No Obligation, 50/1 Ellie Wiggins. DIOMED VERDICT: The betting should be highly informative with both Nicky Henderson and Alan King fielding a pair of newcomers, but BALDING BANKER sets a good standard on his Ascot second and looks the one to beat. The market usually is important here and Nomansland has leapfrogged 3 to become fav , all red, evens in places in a race where only 4 are under 25/1 A bumper so , as I say, market consultation important. 410 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Laser Ruby, 7/1 Dower Glen, Woodwind, 8/1 Boy The Bell, La Chemme, Ruler´s Honour, 10/1 Aurora Lights, Mighty Aphrodite, 14/1 Lily Wood, 16/1 Gessabelle, 50/1 Aim´Ees Star, 100/1 Rose De Rita. DIOMED VERDICT: LASER RUBY boasts the recent solid AW credentials to take this.

Huge price gapper here in Laser Ruby, now 8/13 with next best 7/1 - tells you the market's feeling about this maiden!

610 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Crimson China, 3/1 Bow River Arch, 4/1 Lexington Bay, 9/1 History Girl, Riot Police, 10/1 Bassett Road, 16/1 Double Duchess, Pretty Diamond, 20/1 Samarkand, 33/1 Round Turn.

DIOMED VERDICT: Jeremy Noseda has a good strike-rate with 2yos here and that tips the scales in favour of BOW RIVER ARCH.

This time there are 2 price gappers 11/8 and 13/8 with next best 9/1 - will Crimson China anda Bow River arch dominate this maiden?

FOOTBALL
5pm - Germany (W) v Nigeria (W) - 1.18 - these frauleins are as dominant as their male colleagues and this 1.18 looks a great bet. An international friendly. Last time these 2 met in 2008 , Germans prevailed 1-0.
Germany have only lost 3 in their last 12, and those 3 were all against the USA. 1-0, 2-3, 4-0
3,4,8,1,3,4,7,5,5,4,5,3 the goals scored in Germany's last 12 matches. Only once under 2.5 goals.

Nigeria have won their last 7 on the trot, but it was in the Women's African Championship
Previous to those it's 3 losses and a draw against international opposition but way back in 2008 and 2007 so what relevance it has on today's preceedings I don't know.
In running.

5pm - Lazio v Albinoleffe - 1.22 home -Italian Cup - Division 1 v Division 2. Lazio have only lost 2 in their last 12 matches.
LWLLD for Albinoleffe in their last 5 matches -a little off the boil?
Go with the market here? There are no real patterns and no head to heads so a case of faith in DIvision 1? WDWWLW at home in the league this season is good enough form.
Only loss via Roma in the Rome Derby.
Albinoleffe have lost 7, drawn 3 and won 2 away from home this term.



SHORTLIST
1220 Uttoxeter you already know about

110 TAUNTON - only 5 under 25/1 should offer us some reasonable probabilities of success.
Faith in Nicholls' That'll do at 1.12 to place?

125 UTTOXETER - as you can appreciate, I don't want to go to a heavy ground venue too often, but this race is ideal.8 runners = 3 places and there are only 4 horses under 33/1. Logic would dictate that, barring accidents, the 4 under 33/1 should dominate and thus place.
My Boy Paddy has run on heavy last twice, was 2nd to Kilcrea Kim who has since won at Ffos Las on 22nd November. 1.14 to place and clear in the place only market.
This is a race where you could do your research amongst the other 3 under 25/1 who are 1.46, 1.71, and 1.72 to place and see if you can get another placer at better value odds.
After all, the 4 under 33/1 should have as equal a chance of placing.

135 NEWBURY - -this is quite simply a probability race. There are 3 horses and 2 places on Betfair.
Quite a conundrum. The 2 principles are, as ever, smart hurdlers but the outsider has the chase experience. Go with the market and Finian's Rainbow?1.16 to place with the excellent Barry Geraghty in the plate.

350 NEWBURY - only 4 under 25/1 and Nomansland has gone to 10/11 even as I write this message, from evens earlier in the message!!
1.2 to place in this national hunt flat race ( no obstacles) and ably assisted by up and coming AP McCoy ( watch out for him in the future!!)

410 WOLVES - Laser Ruby is quite standout the best price gapper of the day.8/13 - - - 9/1 in this maiden. These big price gappers normally do the business and this is the only horse ( 1.13 to place) under evens in the place only market.

5pm - Germany (W) v Nigeria (W) - 1.18 - only losses for the Germans have come, on 3 occasions in last 12 matches, against the USA. All others have been victories, and no draws.
Nigerians have a 7 game winning streak, but we must put into context - Africans Women's Championship and some poor quality opposition.
1.18 looks good but we have to remember this is a friendly match and we have no real news as regards team news etc.

5pm - Lazio v Albinoleffe - 1.22 home -Italian Cup - again this is faith in the market. I cannot tell you if Lazio are taking this seriously, but what I can tell you is that Lazio are in good form, and are Seria A v Seria B with home advantage today.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1220 UTTOXETER - I thought with the nearest market rival out, form franked by L'accordioniste, proven in heavy ( and this is the first race of the day so the ground will not have cut up) that Silver Gypsy was worth the 1.11 place only status and should place today barring accidents.

135 NEWBURY - 3 horses and 2 places - if they all complete, your selection will have a better chance of placing than not. But who to choose? It is a novices chase after all!!

350 NEWBURY - long time sufferers ( or should that be readers) will know by now that the market is all in these bumpers , and Nomansland has been backed consistently this morning - 11/10 when I started the message, evens mid way through, and now 10/11. A sign? Interesting too as this bumper sees only 4 under 25/1

410 WOLVES- Laser Ruby is the best price gapper of the day by far and is included for that reason. When you see a price gap of 8/13 - - - -- 9/1 it must recount confidence of some kind, surely?

5pm - Germany (W) v Nigeria (W) - 1.18 - dominant in women's football and have only lost to one side ( albeit 3 times) in last 12, winning 9 of them. Nigeria are fit after their African Championship and have the winning habit, but will the Germans have too much. BEar in mind this is a friendly so is largely irrelevant and lacking in any motivating factor.







--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

24/11

Conditional jockeys claiming hurdle, class 6 2 year old maiden, and beginners chase. All have outstanding opportunities but the race types mean that there would be no surprises were the principles to falter.

It is the football for me that interests, and I would choose either a lay of Rangers or over 1.5 goals in the Spurs v Werder Bremen match.


*****ONE A DAY - 745pm - Tottenham v W Bremen - back over 1.5 goals at 1.17*****
Werder need to win which will aid goals here and these 2's recent ( 12 matches) form overall and at home/away respectively makes a strong case.





Profitable but disappointing. ( a nice enhanced bet though with Zilina scoring first) I flagged up the relative weakness of the Dutch top flight and , after seeing the Real Madrid team, their over evens was an early Christmas present.
Honved too, nailed Espi. I did the research, they scored 2 and conceded none with 10 players in the first leg so why did I not follow this up?
The odds!! Stupid fecker!! I should always back my opinion above that of the market.

745pm - Inter v Twente - 1.66 home - unlike the Chelsea match yesterday, this is a must win for Inter Milan this evening. I hope I argued adequately yesterday that teams like Ajax and Twente can look excellent domestically, but the shallowness of the Dutch top flight leaves them exposed to the best Europe has to offer.
LDDLL in last 5 for Inter means they are in poor form.
DLL for Twente in their last 3.
Dare we trust the fact Inter must win? The Fat Spanish Waiter is having a problem emulating the Special One.

745pm - Panathinaikos v Barcelona - 1.36 away - unbeaten in their last 12 and a 4 game winning streak. My concern is the fact Barca seem to not be bothered about winning away from home in the Champions league. They should have beaten Copenhagen and Rubin Kazan away. Copenhagen scored 2 away at Panathanaikos in the Champions League.
I cannot see Barca losing, and am aware of their future commitments regarding Real Madrid. This should ensure a change on personnel. Will Barca score first? If so , then this 1.36 is eminently tradable.

745pm - Rangers v Man Utd - 1.77 away - I cannot see United losing this against a team in a much weaker league who were handed a present when Fergie picked his team for the home leg using a sheet of names, and a pin.
Surely a little more respect this evening? Laying Rangers at 5.8 is around a 1.19 / 1.20 back bet.
United are yet to concede in qualifying - a mighty stat for the layer of an injury hit Rangers.
Decent enough home form sees a draw against Valencia and a win v Bursaspor. But remember when laying we are covering the draw for extra insurance.
United are unbeaten in their last 12 matches, and it probably goes longer ( my website only goes back 12 matches)
Unbeaten in last 11 matches away from home. LAst loss was in a pointless friendly v Chivas when Hernandez played in Chivas's team in the first half and United in the 2nd half.

Remember that loss v Hibs recently at home (3-0 loss) - this may be a signal that Rangers are feeling a little tired with their current schedule. It all points to , in these eyes, a draw or Man Utd win this evening.

745pm - Tottenham v W Bremen - 1.48 home
10 of Werder's 12 away matches have been over 2.5 goals with one of the remaining 2 1-1.
This stat is typical of Werder Bremen historically.
4,0,6,2,5,3,5,2,3,4,4,5 - total goals scored in last 12 matches for Werder.( latest first)
4,6,3,5,2,4,4,4,0,4,5,4 -total goals scored in last 12 away matches for Werder (latest first)
5,6,2,6,4,2,2,7,3,3,5,1 - total goals scored in last 12 matches for Spuds ( latest first)
6,2,4,2,3,5,4,1,4,0,5 - total goals scored in last 12 home matches for Spuds ( latest first)

Quite a powerful argument for neutral goals betting here?
Werder are in poor form because they are in the midst of an injury crisis.

Good news for goals backers is that Werder have to win to stand any chance of going through.
1.48 is tempting for the trader this evening as surely Spurs can score or at least lead at some stage?

745pm - Valencia v Bursaspor - 1.24 home - shortest price of the day in the Champions League.
Bursaspor were exposed by Man Utd in their defeat. Valencia won 4-0 away from home and surely can continue this evening with home advantage.

Bursaspor have only won 3 of their last 12, 1-0 defeats away to United and Rangers ( home defeat by United far greater - 3-0)

1220 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 National Trust, 5/1 Corlande, 11/2 Calfraz, 6/1 Sundae Best.

DIOMED VERDICT: Another change of surroundings is the only reason to be wary about NATIONAL TRUST because conditions are fine and he has plenty in hand on figures.

National Trust now into 1/3 in a 4 horse race for 2 places.
Has won on soft ground but has a condistional jockey up today ( as do the 3 others to be fair)

120 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sweet Irony, 4/1 Palace Jester, 11/2 Bold Sir Brian, 13/2 Rupert Lamb, 8/1 Eagle Owl, 12/1 Fairynuff, 16/1 Artic Night, Sheepclose, 20/1 Barnack, 33/1 Errington, Jack The Gent, 50/1 Nothing Ventured, 66/1 Aitch Factor, Congella, Don´t Call Harry, 100/1 Hidden In Time, Some Catch, 200/1 Fred Grass.

DIOMED VERDICT: SWEET IRONY shaped well enough on his hurdling debut to earn the vote over Palace Jester.

Price gapper in a big field but only 4 of the 18 runners are under 14/1 and 6 are under 33/1.
Palace jester has been nibbled at

125 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Alaivan, 11/4 Leblon, 3/1 Son Amix, 12/1 Mighty Whitey, 20/1 Red Cert, 50/1 Cuchullain.

3 under 20/1 should be fighting for the 2 places in this listed hurdles race. Soft/heavy ground

205 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 By Implication, 5/1 Around The Clock, Club Oceanic, 7/1 Hawaafez, 10/1 Durante Alighieri, Igitur, Mayfair Lad, Unbeatable, 12/1 Apple Dumpling, 16/1 Passion Play, 20/1 Runaway Tiger, 25/1 Last Act.

DIOMED VERDICT: A race full of unknown quantities but the one who appeals most is the well-bred AROUND THE CLOCK. His sire has made a fine start at stud and the surface should suit.

A huge market move for Club Oceanic into 11/10, all red and shortening. Someone seriously fancies this one to improve significantly . 11/10 - - - - -5/1 for this maiden. George Baker onboard and you could not ask for a more experienced jockey.

9 debutants and 3 one time outers make this a case of having faith in the betting market as there is little else to go on.

225 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Local Hero, 9/2 Ibn Hiyyan, 5/1 Dhaafer, 7/1 Tatispout, 9/1 Plus Ultra, 10/1 Verluga, 12/1 Beneath, Wolf Rock, 50/1 Penshurst Lad.

DIOMED VERDICT: LOCAL HERO looks the type who could carve a career over hurdles and was certainly progressive on the Flat. Tatispout will appreciate the drop in class and may be the main threat.

Another interesting race - 9 runners , 4 under 16/1 and 5 under 25/1
Local Hero is a debutant and now 10/11 and Dhaafer is another mover but this is a maiden hurdle.

300 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Aberdale, 13/8 Silent Cliche, 25/1 Ramborob, 40/1 Columbus Secret.

DIOMED VERDICT: ABERDALE can make his previous experience over fences count, though Silent Cliche looks of similar ability on hurdles form and should make a chaser.

I don't need to tell you about beginners chases - the clue is in the title so natural risks come with betting here. Looks, quite obviously, a 2 horse race for 2 places. Clear rounds will suffice of course.
Aberdale has chase fence experience and Silent Cliche has the soft ground experience. 3 mile 1 furlongs a long distance for beginner chasers.

605 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Prince Of Burma, 9/4 Flying Power, 6/1 Blue Maisey, 10/1 Irie Ute, 12/1 Suspender Belt, 20/1 Cristaliyev, 25/1 Dixie Gwalia, Polish Sunset, 50/1 Miss Maudie, 100/1 Bernie´s Tune.

DIOMED VERDICT: PRINCE OF BURMA made a promising debut here in a stronger race than main rival Flying Power contested last time and normal improvement should see him hard to beat.

Class 6 2 year old maiden -only 5 under 25/1 should allow a decent probability chance for the market leaders.

SHORTLIST
745pm - Panathinaikos v Barcelona - 1.36 away - team news best here I think with Real Madrid to come in La Liga. Dare we trust Barca who have an inexplicably terrible win record away from home in the Champions League. We could hope to back at 1.36 and trade out should Barca lead or score first.

745pm - Rangers v Man Utd - 1.77 away - poor team news last time for United left it at 0-0 at Old Trafford. United are done and dusted as far as the next stage is concerned, so expect a changed side. Rangers have some injuries, this is Fergie's home town and they would want to keep their impressive unbeaten record going. Hence the reason I would lay Rangers at 5.8 for a 1.19 bet and cover the draw.

745pm - Tottenham v W Bremen - 1.48 home - you don't have to be Miss Marple to deduce that goals might be on the menu this evening. 1.17 over 1.5 goals is interesting considering the following
11 of Werders last 12 games have been over 1.5 goals ( 9 have been over 2.5 goals)
11 of Werder's las 12 away games have been over 1.5 goals ( 10 have been over 2.5 goals)
11 of Spurs last 12 games have been over 1.5 goals ( 8 over 2.5 goals)
10 of Spurs last 12 home games have been over 1.5 goals ( 7 over 2.5 goals)

Spurs look tradable this evening at 1.48 in the match odds. I would back them and lay off should they score first or lead at any stage.

745pm - Valencia v Bursaspor - 1.24 home - 4-0 away win in head to heads.

1220 WETHERBY - National Trust 1.11 to place in a 50/50 race having been battered into 1/3

205 LINGFIELD - the epitomy of a bet - Club Oceanic has been battered into 11/10 all red with next best 5/1 in a race where all bar 3 are debutants and the 3 left are one time outers open to improvement.
Someone fancies this one 1.26 to place

300 WETHERBY - another race where you simply accept it is a beginners chase with all the concerns beginners over chase fences bring with them. This is a 2 horse race realistically for 2 places.
Will these 2 complete? Will they make any mistakes?
1.12 to Aberdale to place and 1.27 for Silent cliche in an illiquid market.


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Rangers v Man Utd - 1.77 away - laying Rangers at 5.8 is the same as a 1.19 / 1.20 back bet and looks great this evening. If Man Utd lead, you can trade out. We are covering the draw as United do not need to win.

745pm - Tottenham v W Bremen - 1.48 home -the evidence for goals is compelling - over 1.5 goals at 1.17 is very tempting therefore given these 2's records.
43/48 matches ( overall/home (spurs) and overall/away (werder) in last 12 ) have seen over 1.5 goals.
Spurs are tempting this evening too at 1.48 and I would back to trade only if they score or lead.

745pm - Valencia v Bursaspor - 1.24 home - looks a good opportunity again for Valencia.

Conditional jockeys claiming hurdle sees National Trust strongly fancied - 50/50 race but note the jockeys.
A maiden follows where 9/12 are debutants. Club Oceanic is now evens and shortening even as I write this blog. A good ole fashioned gamble in a maiden this one, someone expects huge improvement from initial run.
The last race is a beginners chase which is a superb opportunity as it is 4 horses and 2 places with 2 under 25/1





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