28/10

Headscratcher today. Do we have faith in the market and Besiktas at home at 1.16 . They have lost their last 2 home matches so surely they will not make it 3 on the bounce. Mersins are draw specialists in their league away, 7 from last 8 have been draws, but this is a sequence that should end today?
Quick Wit can go either way. The market screams out that this horse is head and shoulders above the opposition. But we have wide berth over 7 furlongs and we have 11lb rise. Still, why is the horse evens and next best 10/1??? 1.37 to place becomes very interesting but factors in the above.
The 430 Fontwell is an ideal place only race. Rith Bob is the obvious contender and , indeed, you can chance any of the 4 under 25/1 to place given the probabilities. But if choosing Rith Bob, I realise that his place only price is the same as Besiktas's so which of the 2 is most likely to come in?

*****ONE A DAY - 240 LINGFIELD - QUICK WIT TO PLACE ONLY 1.37 in places*****

The price gap is huge, but there are niggles in that he has a wide draw and 11lb rise in weights but evens - - - - -10/1 indicates he should place at least?






Easy win for Lazio yesterday.

6pm - Besiktas v Mersin Idman Yurdu - 1.16 home - Division 1 v Division 2. Besiktas have lost their last 4 including Europa League v Porto.

Last loss was a 1-0 91st minute winner for opponents, and another match was a messy 3-2 loss where both sides had a man sent off. The loss v Porto is not unexpected as Porto are the form team in Europe at the moment. Prior to these 4 losses Besiktas were flying.

Opponents in division 2 recent form DLDLD.
Asians start at +2 goals so market expects home win. Besiktas at home have lost their last 2, one in Europa League and one in the domestic league ( the 3-2).
Amazingly Mersin have drawn 7 of their last 8 matches away from home. They have drawn 5 on the trot away from home, 3 0-0's and 2 1-1's

A defensive set up away from home? How will it cope with the usually powerful Besiktas at home. And bear this in mind. Will Besiktas tolerate a 3rd consecutive defeat at home? In running.

140 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Bakoura, 3/1 Dubai Queen, 6/1 Judgement, 10/1 Deslaya, 14/1 Cinta, Poppy, Waltzing Cat, 20/1 Adorable Choice, All Honesty, Birdolini, Fakhuur, 33/1 Desert Location, 50/1 Royal Reason,

DIOMED VERDICT: DUBAI QUEEN was notably short in the betting on her debut and although she was well held on that occasion, she is sure to know much more this time.

Dubai Queen is 5/4, all red here and new fav for Fallon and Cumani, successful last night at Kempton.

You get what you get when you bet 2 year old maiden fillies!!

200 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Balzaccio, 11/4 Bai Zhu, 7/2 Kitley Hassle, 6/1 Psi, 9/1 Not So Sure Dick, 20/1 Notmorebrandy, 25/1 Daring Approach, 66/1 Open Range.

DIOMED VERDICT: BALZACCIO makes most appeal of the newcomers to chasing.

Bai Zhu is 5/4, all red and the one fancied. Sometimes in novice chases we have to take our cues from the market.

8 runners, only 5 under 40/1 here should be the ones for the 3 places.

230 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Il Portico, 4/1 Zakeeta, 8/1 Rahaala, 9/1 Royal Torbo, 10/1 Freckle Face, 11/1 Juwireya, 16/1 Joe Rua, 20/1 Claimant, Magic Spirit, Ultravox, 25/1 Brave Enough, On The Right Path, 33/1 Pursestrings, 66/1 You Mug.

DIOMED VERDICT: ILPORTICO looks the one to beat after his Kempton debut.

Only 5 under 20/1 and Il and Zak share 2/1 favouratism. The former won last time out in October and could place again.

240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Quick Wit, 8/1 Santefisio, 10/1 Den´s Gift, Seek The Fair Land, Woodcote Place, 12/1 Elna Bright, Mr Willis, Venutius, 14/1 Autumn Blades, Flipando, 16/1 Caprio, 20/1 Excellerator, Titan Triumph, 33/1 Bravo Echo.

DIOMED VERDICT: QUICK WIT looked a smart performer in the making at Nottingham on his reappearance and he can overcome his wide draw and rise in the weights.

Eyepopping price gapper here in Quick Wit
Price gap in the live betting is evens -- - - -- 10/1. And this despite an 11lb rise in the handicap!!

310 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Aspectoflove, 5/1 Mosqueras Romance, 6/1 Lady Darshaan, 8/1 Super Sleuth, 10/1 What´s Up Pussycat, 12/1 Forest Crown, 14/1 Gobama, Sarah Park, 16/1 Siyaadah, 20/1 Kameruka, 25/1 Faithful One,

DIOMED VERDICT: ASPECTOFLOVE is a smart performer on her day and is fancied to concede weight to her rivals now back in Listed company.

Class 1 listed fillies race - think Sariska if you want to know how temperamental these top class ladies can be.

Aspects is another price gapper here 6/4 - - - - -5/1 but as we know these class of races hold top quality animals who can be competitive on their day.

340 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Baila Me, 11/4 Rosika, 17/2 Lady Artemisia, 10/1 Western Pearl, 11/1 Wild Rose, 12/1 Copperbeech, Mujdeya, 14/1 Roxy Flyer, 16/1 Just Lille, Nezhenka, 20/1 Giants Play, 25/1 Some Sunny Day, 40/1 Funday, Gakalina.

DIOMED VERDICT: With her stable in such fine form this autumn, it may be worth chancing that last year's winner BAILA ME is ready to show something very close to her best back from a year off, in which case she has a class edge on these rivals. Rosika was secondlast year and may claim the same place again, ahead of Wild Rose.

Baila Me is 13/8, all red and being strongly backed for Godolphin and Dettori. BUT this one has not run since 2009, so do we take our cues from the betting market as regards well being ?
With only 2 horses under 14/1, surely 3/1 Rosika is the value play here?

Another fillies listed race.

350 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Owen Glendower, 4/1 San Remo Bello, 5/1 Timesawastin, 13/2 Renard D´Irlande, 10/1 Benarchat, 14/1 What An Oscar, 20/1 Madame Jasmine, Mister Hyde, 33/1 Beau Colonel, Cityar, Sebennytos, 100/1 Bemused, Contentwithmyluck, Kayfton Pete, Smoking

DIOMED VERDICT: OWEN GLENDOWER (nap) sets a fair standard on the form he showed in winning at Worcester. I like Barry Geraghty -he has been in great form in Ireland. He rides the now evens Owen Glendower, one of only 4 under 16/1 here and surely with a clear round he has a good place only chance. 420 STRATFORD BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tell Massini, 100/30 Triggerman, 4/1 Captive Audience, 6/1 Fredo, 10/1 Picture In The Sky, 20/1 Factotum, 33/1 No Reception. DIOMED VERDICT: Two or three of his rivals are talented enough to make it interesting but all eyes will be on TELL MASSINI.

Tell Massini at 4/7 is interesting , but as with Celestial Halo, they have to complete on their race - conditioned chase debuts.

430 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Rith Bob, 3/1 Charming Lad, 4/1 Mic Aubin, 6/1 Mtpockets, 16/1 Mister Virginian, 25/1 Island News, 33/1 Seaview Lad, 66/1 Hot Chipotle.

DIOMED VERDICT: RITH BOB looks the one to beat.

A good old fashioned 8 runner race with 4 under 25/1. This makes Rith Bob a good place only horse if completing this 3 miler - not run since June.

510 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Paphos, 7/2 Cool Kitten, 6/1 Abhainn, Batchworth Blaise, 10/1 Ever Cheerful, Song Of Praise, 12/1 Mighty Aphrodite, Royal Envoy, 20/1 Cavalry Guard, 66/1 Hannah Hawk.

DIOMED VERDICT: PAPHOS has won both his previous starts over this C&D and he can make it 3-3 in a modest event.

Huge market mover in Mighty Aphrodite into 4/1 2nd fav in this poor race.

720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Scented, 4/1 Sheila´s Star, 5/1 Roi Du Boeuf, 6/1 Imaginary World, 8/1 Rather Cool, 12/1 Always De Man, 16/1 Georgina Bailey, 25/1 Senor Sassi, Will Barrow, 33/1 Adzing.

DIOMED VERDICT: SCENTED did enough in maidens at Newmarket and here to get the vote. Richard Hughes is putting a shift in today and his Scented is 4/5 - - - - -6/1 at present ( note this is an evening race) A 2 year old claimer perhaps not the ideal betting medium, but Richard Hughes on a price gapper when he's trying to win the Flat Jockey's Championship - we can be assured of 100% 850 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 An Mhi, 6/1 Royal Island, 7/1 Abydos, Active Asset, 8/1 Lunar River, Masterofceremonies, Tres Froide, 12/1 Ocean Countess, 14/1 Noche De Reyes, 16/1 All About You, 20/1 Querido, 25/1 Barodine, Richo. DIOMED VERDICT: MASTEROFCEREMONIES is well weighted and will benefit from having a professional rider back in the saddle.

Barney has backed Abydos , it seems, into 5/2 all red favourite. Another Curley gamble to swell the Christmas funds?

SHORTLIST

6pm - Besiktas v Mersin Idman Yurdu - 1.16 home - in running and a strong Besiktas side should suffice. Bear in mind they have lost the last 2 at home. Psychologically, they will not want to lose another .

Fillies and novice chases. How cruel can the betting gods be?

240 LINGFIELD - Quick Wit is the biggest price gapper of the day and should place, unless the market has severely underestimated his chances Look at the price gap evens - - - - 10/1
Yes , up 11lbs, but Dettori and Godolphin.
1.37 to place is cautious yet still appealing. It tells us there is a little trepidation regarding the rise in weights and wide draw

340 LINGFIELD - something tells me Rosika is a ready alternative to Baila Me who has not run since 2009 but is fancied today. 1.57 for Rosika to place tells us this is high class, and this is fillies!!

350 STRATFORD - Owen Glendower has Barry Geraghty to assist, recent winning form over hurdles and trip, and is only one of 4 under 16/1 so has a reasonable place only chance? 1.2 to place as I write.

430 FONTWELL - I see these as ideal place only races. Why? 8 runners and 3 places ( 8 is the minimum number of runners that pay out 3 places.) Only 4 horses are under 25/1, and barring falls etc, should be the ones fighting out the 3 places. Odds on fav Rith Bob becomes the logical choice to place. 1.15 to place

720 WOLVES - Scented is a "circumstances" bet - i.e. we have a jockey battling for the Championship on a strong favourite. So, despite this being a 2 year old claimer, Scented should be a good place only bet.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Besiktas v Mersin Idman Yurdu - 1.16 home - I was just mentioning " circumstances" above. Surely it is inconcievable for Besiktas to lose a 3rd home match on the trot, especially when they have a chance to end that losing sequence against lower league opponents. Mersin do draw, and have drawn 7 of last 8, but will Besiktas be too much for them?

240 LINGFIELD - Quick Wit must be included as the most striking price gapper of the day. 1.37 to place is a bet based on him overcoming his draw and 11lb rise in weights. The analyst of his last race mentioned he is far better than a class 4 handicapper.
Dettori to help makes this a good candidate.
We know the risks/negatives but will quality out and will this price gap be accurate?

430 FONTWELL - quite simply the perfect place only race. 8 runners and 3 places. 4 are under 25/1 and there is an odds on fav in Rith Bob.

720 WOLVES - we need to see the market nearer the off but expect Hughes to near the gap to Hanigan on a well fancied fav?